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The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a connected locally finite base graph we initially declare edges independently open with a probability that is allowed to depend on the degree of the adjacent vertices and closed otherwise. Edges are independently updated with a rate depending on the degrees and then are again declared open and closed with the same probabilities. We are interested in the contact process, where infections are only allowed to spread via open edges. Our aim is to analyze the impact of the update speed and the probability for edges to be open on the existence of a phase transition. For a general connected locally finite graph, our first result gives sufficient conditions for the critical value for survival to be strictly positive. Furthermore, in the setting of Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees, we show that the process survives strongly with positive probability for any infection rate if the offspring distribution has a stretched exponential tail with an exponent depending on the percolation probability and the update speed. In particular, if the offspring distribution follows a power law and the connection probability is given by a product kernel and the update speed exhibits polynomial behaviour, we provide a complete characterisation of the phase transition., Comment: 56 pages, 4 figures

We consider the soft Boolean model, a model that interpolates between the Boolean model and long-range percolation, where vertices are given via a stationary Poisson point process. Each vertex carries an independent Pareto-distributed radius and each pair of vertices is assigned another independent Pareto weight with a potentially different tail exponent. Two vertices are now connected if they are within distance of the larger radius multiplied by the edge weight. We determine the tail behaviour of the Euclidean diameter and the number of points of a typical maximally connected component in a subcritical percolation phase. For this, we present a sharp criterion in terms of the tail exponents of the edge-weight and radius distributions that distinguish a regime where the tail behaviour is controlled only by the edge exponent from a regime in which both exponents are relevant. Our proofs rely on fine path-counting arguments identifying the precise order of decay of the probability that far-away vertices are connected., Comment: A short video summary can be found here https://youtu.be/obdlao6Zvgc

We show existence of a non-trivial phase transition for the contact process, a simple model for infection without immunity, on a network which reacts dynamically to the infection trying to prevent an epidemic. This network initially has the distribution of an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph, but is made adaptive via updating in only the infected neighbourhoods, at constant rate. Under these graph dynamics, the presence of infection can help to prevent the spread and so many monotonicity-based techniques fail. Instead, we approximate the infection by an idealised model, the contact process on an evolving forest (CPEF). In this model updating events of a vertex in a tree correspond to the creation of a new tree with that vertex as the root. By seeing the newly created trees as offspring, the CPEF generates a Galton-Watson tree and we use that it survives if and only if its offspring number exceeds one. It turns out that the phase transition in the adaptive model occurs at a different infection rate when compared to the non-adaptive model., Comment: 38 pages, 3 figures

The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We consider a variant of this process on Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson trees, where vertices are equipped with a random fitness representing inhomogeneous transmission rates among individuals. In this paper, we establish conditions under which this inhomogeneous contact process exhibits a phase transition. We first prove that if certain mixed moments of the joint offspring and fitness distribution are finite, then the survival threshold is strictly positive. Further, we show that, if slightly different mixed moments are infinite, then this implies that there is no phase transition and the process survives with positive probability for any choice of the infection parameter. A similar dichotomy is known for the contact process on a Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree. However, we show that the introduction of fitness means that we have to take into account the combined effect of fitness and offspring distribution to decide which scenario occurs., Comment: 38 pages

A weighted recursive tree is an evolving tree in which vertices are assigned random vertex-weights and new vertices connect to a predecessor with a probability proportional to its weight. Here, we study the maximum degree and near-maximum degrees in weighted recursive trees when the vertex-weights are almost surely bounded and their distribution function satisfies a mild regularity condition near zero. We are able to specify higher-order corrections to the first order growth of the maximum degree established in prior work. The accuracy of the results depends on the behaviour of the weight distribution near the largest possible value and in certain cases we manage to find the corrections up to random order. Additionally, we describe the tail distribution of the maximum degree, the distribution of the number of vertices attaining the maximum degree, and establish asymptotic normality of the number of vertices with near-maximum degree. Our analysis extends the results proved for random recursive trees (where the weights are constant) to the case of random weights. The main technical result shows that the degrees of several uniformly chosen vertices are asymptotically independent with explicit error corrections., Comment: 52 pages

We study a generalisation of the random recursive tree (RRT) model and its multigraph counterpart, the uniform directed acyclic graph (DAG). Here, vertices are equipped with a random vertex-weight representing initial inhomogeneities in the network, so that a new vertex connects to one of the old vertices with a probability that is proportional to their vertex-weight. We first identify the asymptotic degree distribution of a uniformly chosen vertex for a general vertex-weight distribution. For the maximal degree, we distinguish several classes that lead to different behaviour: For bounded vertex-weights we obtain results for the maximal degree that are similar to those observed for RRTs and DAGs. If the vertex-weights have unbounded support, then the maximal degree has to satisfy the right balance between having a high vertex-weight and being born early. For vertex-weights in the Frechet maximum domain of attraction the first order behaviour of the maximal degree is random, while for those in the Gumbel maximum domain of attraction the leading order is deterministic. Surprisingly, in the latter case, the second order is random when considering vertices in a compact window in the optimal region, while it becomes deterministic when considering all vertices., Comment: 64 pages, To appear in the Annals of Applied Probability

Preferential attachment models form a popular class of growing networks, where incoming vertices are preferably connected to vertices with high degree. We consider a variant of this process, where vertices are equipped with a random initial fitness representing initial inhomogeneities among vertices and the fitness influences the attractiveness of a vertex in an additive way. We consider a heavy-tailed fitness distribution and show that the model exhibits a phase transition depending on the tail exponent of the fitness distribution. In the weak disorder regime, one of the old vertices has maximal degree irrespective of fitness, while for strong disorder the vertex with maximal degree has to satisfy the right balance between fitness and age. Our methods use martingale methods to show concentration of degree evolutions as well as extreme value theory to control the fitness landscape., Comment: 48 pages

The symbiotic branching model describes the dynamics of a spatial two-type population, where locally particles branch at a rate given by the frequency of the other type combined with nearest-neighbour migration. This model generalizes various classic models in population dynamics, such as the stepping stone model and the mutually catalytic branching model. We are particularly interested in understanding the region of coexistence, i.e. the interface between the two types. In this chapter, we give an overview over our results that describe the dynamics of these interfaces at large scales. One of the reasons that this system is tractable is that it exhibits a rich duality theory. So at the same time, we take the opportunity to provide an introduction to the strength of duality methods in the context of spatial population models., Comment: 24 pages, 3 figures. To appear in "Probabilistic Structures in Evolution", ed. by E. Baake and A. Wakolbinger

The voter model is a classical interacting particle system modelling how consensus is formed across a network. We analyse the time to consensus for the voter model when the underlying graph is a subcritical scale-free random graph. Moreover, we generalise the model to include a `temperature' parameter. The interplay between the temperature and the structure of the random graph leads to a very rich phase diagram, where in the different phases different parts of the underlying geometry dominate the time to consensus. Finally, we also consider a discursive voter model, where voters discuss their opinions with their neighbours. Our proofs rely on the well-known duality to coalescing random walks and a detailed understanding of the structure of the random graphs., Comment: 51 pages, 3 figures

We consider a general preferential attachment model, where the probability that a newly arriving vertex connects to an older vertex is proportional to a sublinear function of the indegree of the older vertex at that time. It is well known that the distribution of a uniformly chosen vertex converges to a limiting distribution. Depending on the parameters, this model can show power law, but also stretched exponential behaviour. Using Stein's method we provide rates of convergence for the total variation distance. Our proof uses the fact that the limiting distribution is the stationary distribution of a Markov chain together with the generator method of Barbour.

Consider a system of particles moving independently as Brownian motions until two of them meet, when the colliding pair annihilates instantly. The construction of such a system of annihilating Brownian motions (aBMs) is straightforward as long as we start with a finite number of particles, but is more involved for infinitely many particles. In particular, if we let the set of starting points become increasingly dense in the real line it is not obvious whether the resulting systems of aBMs converge and what the possible limit points (entrance laws) are. In this paper, we show that aBMs arise as the interface model of the continuous-space voter model. This link allows us to provide a full classification of entrance laws for aBMs. We also give some examples showing how different entrance laws can be obtained via finite approximations. Further, we discuss the relation of the continuous-space voter model to the stepping stone and other related models. Finally, we obtain an expression for the $n$-point densities of aBMs starting from an arbitrary entrance law., Comment: 26 pages, 2 figures

Preferential attachment networks with power law exponent $\tau>3$ are known to exhibit a phase transition. There is a value $\rho_{\rm c}>0$ such that, for small edge densities $\rho\leq \rho_c$ every component of the graph comprises an asymptotically vanishing proportion of vertices, while for large edge densities $\rho>\rho_c$ there is a unique giant component comprising an asymptotically positive proportion of vertices. In this paper we study the decay in the size of the giant component as the critical edge density is approached from above. We show that the size decays very rapidly, like $\exp(-c/ \sqrt{\rho-\rho_c})$ for an explicit constant $c>0$ depending on the model implementation. This result is in contrast to the behaviour of the class of rank-one models of scale-free networks, including the configuration model, where the decay is polynomial. Our proofs rely on the local neighbourhood approximations of [Dereich, Morters, 2013] and recent progress in the theory of branching random walks [Gantert, Hu, Shi, 2011]., Comment: 35 pages, 1 figure

We consider first passage percolation on the configuration model. Once the network has been generated each edge is assigned an i.i.d. weight modeling the passage time of a message along this edge. Then independently two vertices are chosen uniformly at random, a sender and a recipient, and all edges along the geodesic connecting the two vertices are coloured in red (in the case that both vertices are in the same component). In this article we prove local limit theorems for the coloured graph around the recipient in the spirit of Benjamini and Schramm. We consider the explosive regime, in which case the random distances are of finite order, and the Malthusian regime, in which case the random distances are of logarithmic order., Comment: 19 pages, 1 figure

We consider a branching random walk on the lattice, where the branching rates are given by an i.i.d. Pareto random potential. We show a very strong form of intermittency, where with high probability most of the mass of the system is concentrated in a single site with high potential. The analogous one-point localization is already known for the parabolic Anderson model, which describes the expected number of particles in the same system. In our case, we rely on very fine estimates for the behaviour of particles near a good point. This complements our earlier results that in the rescaled picture most of the mass is concentrated on a small island., Comment: 25 pages

We consider a branching random walk on the lattice, where the branching rates are given by an i.i.d. Pareto random potential. We show that the system of particles, rescaled in an appropriate way, converges in distribution to a scaling limit that is interesting in its own right. We describe the limit object as a growing collection of "lilypads" built on a Poisson point process in $\mathbb{R}^d$. As an application of our main theorem, we show that the maximizer of the system displays the ageing property., Comment: 26 pages

The symbiotic branching model is a spatial population model describing the dynamics of two interacting types that can only branch if both types are present. A classical result for the underlying stochastic partial differential equation identifies moments of the solution via a duality to a system of Brownian motions with dynamically changing colors. In this paper, we revisit this duality and give it a new interpretation. This new approach allows us to extend the duality to the limit as the branching rate $\gamma$ is sent to infinity. This limit is particularly interesting since it captures the large scale behaviour of the system. As an application of the duality, we can explicitly identify the $\gamma = \infty$ limit when the driving noises are perfectly negatively correlated. The limit is a system of annihilating Brownian motions with a drift that depends on the initial imbalance between the types., Comment: 49 pages, 1 figure

The symbiotic branching model describes a spatial population consisting of two types that are allowed to migrate in space and branch locally only if both types are present. We continue our investigation of the large scale behaviour of the system started in Blath, Hammer and Ortgiese (2016), where we showed that the continuum system converges after diffusive rescaling. Inspired by a scaling property of the continuum model, a series of earlier works initiated by Klenke and Mytnik (2010, 2012) studied the model on a discrete space, but with infinite branching rate. In this paper, we bridge the gap between the two models by showing that by diffusively rescaling this discrete space infinite rate model, we obtain the continuum model from Blath, Hammer and Ortgiese (2016). As an application of this convergence result, we show that if we start the infinite rate system from complementary Heaviside initial conditions, the initial ordering of types is preserved in the limit and that the interface between the types consists of a single point., Comment: 36 pages, 1 figure

We establish a link between Wakeley et al's (2012) cyclical pedigree model from population genetics and a randomized directed configuration model (DCM) considered by Cooper and Frieze (2004). We then exploit this link in combination with asymptotic results for the in-degree distribution of the corresponding DCM to compute the asymptotic size of the largest strongly connected component $S^N$ (where $N$ is the population size) of the DCM resp. the pedigree. The size of the giant component can be characterized explicitly (amounting to approximately $80 \%$ of the total populations size) and thus contributes to a reduced `pedigree effective population size'. In addition, the second largest strongly connected component is only of size $O(\log N)$. Moreover, we describe the size and structure of the `domain of attraction' of $S^N$. In particular, we show that with high probability for any individual the shortest ancestral line reaches $S^N$ after $O(\log \log N)$ generations, while almost all other ancestral lines take at most $O(\log N)$ generations., Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures

We consider a branching random walk on the lattice, where the branching rates are given by an i.i.d. Pareto random potential. We describe the process, including a detailed shape theorem, in terms of a system of growing lilypads. As an application we show that the branching random walk is intermittent, in the sense that most particles are concentrated on one very small island with large potential. Moreover, we compare the branching random walk to the parabolic Anderson model and observe that although the two systems show similarities, the mechanisms that control the growth are fundamentally different., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOP1021 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

The continuous-space symbiotic branching model describes the evolution of two interacting populations that can reproduce locally only in the simultaneous presence of each other. If started with complementary Heaviside initial conditions, the interface where both populations coexist remains compact. Together with a diffusive scaling property, this suggests the presence of an interesting scaling limit. Indeed, in the present paper, we show weak convergence of the diffusively rescaled populations as measure-valued processes in the Skorokhod, respectively the Meyer-Zheng, topology (for suitable parameter ranges). The limit can be characterized as the unique solution to a martingale problem and satisfies a "separation of types" property. This provides an important step toward an understanding of the scaling limit for the interface. As a corollary, we obtain an estimate on the moments of the width of an approximate interface., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOP989 in the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

The preferential attachment network with fitness is a dynamic random graph model. New vertices are introduced consecutively and a new vertex is attached to an old vertex with probability proportional to the degree of the old one multiplied by a random fitness. We concentrate on the typical behaviour of the graph by calculating the fitness distribution of a vertex chosen proportional to its degree. For a particular variant of the model, this analysis was first carried out by Borgs, Chayes, Daskalakis and Roch. However, we present a new method, which is robust in the sense that it does not depend on the exact specification of the attachment law. In particular, we show that a peculiar phenomenon, referred to as Bose-Einstein condensation, can be observed in a wide variety of models. Finally, we also compute the joint degree and fitness distribution of a uniformly chosen vertex., Comment: 22 pages

We study a directed polymer model in a random environment on infinite binary trees. The model is characterized by a phase transition depending on the inverse temperature. We concentrate on the asymptotics of the partition function in the near-critical regime, where the inverse temperature is a small perturbation away from the critical one with the perturbation converging to zero as the system size grows large. Depending on the speed of convergence we observe very different asymptotic behavior. If the perturbation is small then we are inside the critical window and observe the same decay of the partition function as at the critical temperature. If the perturbation is slightly larger the near-critical scaling leads to a new range of asymptotic behaviors, which at the extremes match up with the already known rates for the sub- and super-critical regimes. We use our results to identify the size of the fluctuations of the typical energies under the critical Gibbs measure., Comment: 27 pages

We consider moments of the return times (or first hitting times) in a discrete time discrete space Markov chain. It is classical that the finiteness of the first moment of a return time of one state implies the finiteness of the first moment of the first return time of any other state. We extend this statement to moments with respect to a function $f$, where $f$ satisfies a certain, best possible condition. This generalizes results of K. L. Chung (1954) who considered the functions $f(n)=n^p$ and wondered "[...] what property of the power $n^p$ lies behind this theorem [...]" (see Chung (1967), p. 70). We exhibit that exactly the functions that do not increase exponentially -- neither globally nor locally -- fulfill the above statement., Comment: 9 pages

The parabolic Anderson model is the Cauchy problem for the heat equation with a random potential. We consider this model in a setting which is continuous in time and discrete in space, and focus on time-constant, independent and identically distributed potentials with polynomial tails at infinity. We are concerned with the long-term temporal dynamics of this system. Our main result is that the periods, in which the profile of the solutions remains nearly constant, are increasing linearly over time, a phenomenon known as ageing. We describe this phenomenon in the weak sense, by looking at the asymptotic probability of a change in a given time window, and in the strong sense, by identifying the almost sure upper envelope for the process of the time remaining until the next change of profile. We also prove functional scaling limit theorems for profile and growth rate of the solution of the parabolic Anderson model., Comment: 43 pages, 4 figures

We consider a model of directed polymers on a regular tree with a disorder given by independent, identically distributed weights attached to the vertices. For suitable weight distributions this model undergoes a phase transition with respect to its localization behaviour. We show that, for high temperatures, the free energy is supported by a random tree of positive exponential growth rate, which is strictly smaller than that of the full tree. The growth rate of the minimal supporting subtree is decreasing to zero as the temperature decreases to the critical value. At the critical value and all lower temperatures, a single polymer suffices to support the free energy. Our proofs rely on elegant martingale methods adapted from the theory of branching random walks., Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, to be published in the special issue of JMP, 'Statistical Mechanics on Random Structures'

In the first part of this paper we give easy and intuitive proofs for the small value probabilities of the martingale limit of a supercritical Galton-Watson process in both the Schr\"oder and the B\"ottcher case. These results are well-known, but the most cited proofs rely on generating function arguments which are hard to transfer to other settings. In the second part we show that the strategy underlying our proofs can be used in the quite different context of self-intersections of stochastic processes. Solving a problem posed by Wenbo Li, we find the small value probabilities for intersection local times of several Brownian motions, as well as for self-intersection local times of a single Brownian motion., Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures