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The El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we found businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption - and supporting the private sector to adapt - is a development priority.Drought during the 2015/2016 El Niño amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana's capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Niño brought localized floods to Nairobi and other areas. Contributing to a sparse literature on firm-level adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa, through a near-real time assessment we consider MSME experience of this disruption in sectors making substantial contributions to livelihoods and national GDP. Alongside complex and indirect impact pathways that influence total loss and damage, results show varying vulnerability to disruption. Nevertheless, directly after the El Niño event, MSMEs reported water supply disruption, power outages and flooding to be the leading challenge within the business environment in Botswana, Zambia and Kenya, respectively. Deeper understanding of vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure - in the context of increasing urbanization and a potentially broader range of climate variability - is urgently needed across sub-Saharan Africa. This needs to be coupled with public provision of wider enabling conditions - including access to

Potential impacts of climate change on surface water yields over the Sondu River basin in the western region of Kenya were analysed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with climate input data obtained from the fourth generation coupled Ocean-Atmosphere European Community Hamburg Model (ECHAM4) using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. Daily time step regional climate scenarios at a spatial grid resolution of 0.44Ëš over the Eastern Africa region were matched to the Sondu river basin and used to calibrate and validate the SWAT model.Analysis of historical and projected rainfall over the basin strongly indicated that the climate of the area will significantly change with wetter climates being experienced by 2030 and beyond. Projected monthly rainfall distribution shows increasing trends in the relatively dry DJF and SON seasons while showing decreasing trends in the relatively wet MAM and JJA seasons. Potential changes in water yields resulting from climate change were computed by comparing simulated yields under climate change scenarios with those simulated under baseline conditions. There was evidence of substantial increases in water yields ranging between 88% and 110% of the baseline yields by 2030 and 2050 respectively. Although simulated water yields are subject to further verification from observed values, this study has provided useful information about potential changes in water yields as a result of climate change over the Sondu River basin and in similar basins in this region.

Non-technical summary The El Niño event in 2015/2016 was one of the strongest since at least 1950. Through surveys and interviews with key informants, we find businesses in the capital cities of Zambia, Botswana and Kenya experienced major disruption to their activities from El Niño related hydroelectric load shedding, water supply disruption and flooding, respectively. Yet, during the 2015/2016 El Niño, fluctuations in precipitation were not extreme considering the strength of the El Niño event. Results therefore highlight that even fairly moderate precipitation anomalies can contribute to major disruption to economic activity. Addressing the risk of disruption – and supporting the private sector to adapt – is a development priority. Technical summary Drought during the 2015/2016 El Niño amplified disruption to public water supply in Botswana’s capital Gaborone and contributed to unprecedented hydroelectric load shedding across Zambia. In Kenya, moderate precipitation during the El Niño brought localized floods to Nairobi and other areas. Contributing to a sparse literature on firm-level adaptation among micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) in sub-Saharan Africa, through a near-real time assessment we consider MSME experience of this disruption in sectors making substantial contributions to livelihoods and national GDP. Alongside complex and indirect impact pathways that influence total loss and damage, results show varying vulnerability to disruption. Nevertheless, directly after the El Niño event, MSMEs reported water supply disruption, power outages and flooding to be the leading challenge within the business environment in Botswana, Zambia and Kenya respectively. Deeper understanding of vulnerabilities in existing water, energy and urban infrastructure – in the context of increasing urbanisation and a potentially broader range of climate variability – is urgently needed across SSA. This needs to be coupled with public provision of wider enabling condition