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In Mexico, the tequila industry is the second most important economic activity within the alcoholic beverage industry, after the beer industry. Tequila vinasse is wastewater with a high organic load produced during the distillation of the fermented must of the blue agave (Agave tequilana Weber var. azul), which has a great impact on soils and water bodies in the tequila region. On the other hand, the decrease in fuel reserves causes instability in hydrocarbon prices, which makes it necessary to implement alternative fuel methods such as biogas. In this sense, it has recently been pointed out that the anaerobic digestion process is the most suitable for the treatment of tequila vinasse since it allows the removal of contaminating organic matter, together with the production of biogas that can be used in situ in the tequila industry. In this study, the financial feasibility of the production of biogas for self-consumption from tequila vinasse was calculated with the values achieved from a pilot system composed of a packed bed reactor (PBR) with technological and economic advantages to treat this waste. Profitability was evaluated over a 10-year production horizon (net present value $1 569 001) and was complemented with the Real Options methodology, taking into account price volatility and the option to expand. The results showed that the project is profitable with the 42.85 % biogas production expansion option. It is concluded that biogas production is financially feasible and it is possible to increase the profitability of the system by $6 325 109 if production is expanded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research aims to empirically study the use of real options as a method of financial valuation in investment projects when making decisions. Flexibility and uncertainty in decision-making are essential to the methodology, and parameters such as cash flows, volatility values, investment value, exercise price, as well as exercise time, and risk-free rate are considered. The real options are an extension of the financial Options and can be valued by different methods, for this investigation binomial trees were used to project the flow values within the year of the exercise to show their value, this perspective is shown to make the best decision in investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Usually, tax shields are determined like a perpetuity, through Modigliani-Miller or Miller expressions. These are based on classic tax systems, like United States. For this, a valuation model that captures the value of the firms and tax shields' contingent nature is proposed, supposes continuity - liquidation scenarios, for different tax systems. Next, with a basis in OCDE and Latin America countries are compared firma value, tax shields and taxation. Later, for integrated systems, the contingent model on different tax shields estimation model is applied. It is concluded the importance of adjust the tax shield to existing tax systems and the uses of valuation contingent models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Se propone el enfoque de opciones reales como herramienta económico-financiera para la toma de decisiones estratégicas en el sector forestal. En términos de instrumentos financieros, consideraremos en particular una opción exótica conocida como barrier option del tipo knock-in. Suponemos que la proyección del precio de venta promedio de los subproductos sigue un proceso estocástico del tipo Geométrico Browniano, mientras que la producción se determina mediante simulación de un turno forestal. La decisión de talar la masa forestal surge de comparar en cada periodo, el valor de flujo de fondos en cada nodo (FFij(t)) de una rejilla binomial con el valor esperado en el próximo año ( ). En un ejemplo analizado el criterio tradicional del VAN indica que el mayor valor actual se produce en el instante t = 0 (año 10), mientras que el enfoque de opciones reales arroja que el máximo valor de ejercicio se da en el periodo t = 8 (año 18).

Copyright of Contaduría y Administración is the property of Facultad de Contaduria y Administracion-Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study examines three investment methodologies for renewable energy projects: 1) leveled electricity cost, 2) discounted cash flow with Monte Carlo and value at risk (VaR) simulations, and 3) real-world scenarios. Two investment strategies are evaluated: 1) investment without tax incentives, without financing, and with an assets depreciation of over 10 years, and 2) the same conditions as 1), but with tax incentives. A sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of depreciation rate variation and debt percentage on the initial outcomes. The results show that levelized photovoltaic solar electricity and wind costs are 5.1 ¢USD/kWh and 4.8 ¢USD/kWh respectively. There is a reduction of 44% and 39%, respectively, when tax incentives consider assets depreciation to 10 years, 100% debt percentage, and 6% interest rate E.A (discount rate). It is concluded that the LCOE (levelized cost of energy) methodology can be combined with other investment assessment methodologies such as discounted cash flow with Monte Carlo and VaR simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At emerging financial markets, the R&D, intangible and technological basis firms (TBF) valuation, they make the traditional real option binomial approach questionable. For that, a numerical model that modified the traditional binomial model is proposed, incorporating trinomial lattice, changing volatility, isoelastic utility function and variable risk aversion. These characteristics pretend improve the no conventional project valuation in emerging markets. It is employed the case method of analysis in administration, analysing the investment strategy valuation over a technological basis firm. The obtained results allow to compare the different values, from the classical binomial model until the proposed numerical model. The last showed superiority, because its incorporates explicitly variables in the valuation process, like the investor preference for risk and volatility levels according the life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El objetivo del trabajo consiste en exponer diferentes maneras de valuar un contrato de concesión con opciones de renovación y abandono secuenciales para el yacimiento Vaca Muerta en Argentina. En tal sentido, se utiliza la valuación por múltiplos, descuento de flujos de fondos y opciones reales con volatilidad cambiante. El análisis se complementa con el uso de planillas de cálculo para estudiar el riesgo del proyecto: sensibilidad, escenarios y simulación. Esta última permite calcular descripciones estadísticas, probabilidades estandarizadas, ratios de ganancias-pérdidas y volatilidad, estimada mediante el enfoque MAD (marketed asset disclaimer). Los resultados obtenidos exponen el alcance y las limitaciones de los modelos empleados. Se concluye a favor del uso de modelos de opciones con volatilidad cambiante, porque permiten la valuación de la flexibilidad estratégica, sensibilizando las principales variables y analizando el impacto, en el valor y condiciones contractuales.

Los proyectos de inversión en energía frecuentemente son evaluados mediante la aplicación de técnicas clásicas que asumen un panorama estático en los flujos de caja, resultando insuficientes al no considerar los riesgos asociados a las variables de entrada ni la flexibilidad de los inversionistas para la toma de decisiones. El objetivo principal de esta investigación fue evaluar la viabilidad financiera de proyectos de energía geotérmica en Colombia, considerando la incertidumbre y el riesgo característico de este tipo de proyectos. Primero, se describió el caso de estudio analizado, las variables de modelación más comunes en proyectos de esta índole y las distribuciones probabilísticas asociadas. Posteriormente se utilizó la simulación de Monte Carlo para conocer la viabilidad financiera del proyecto mediante la aplicación de criterios clásicos de la literatura. Estos hallazgos fueron comparados con los obtenidos al aplicar el enfoque de opciones reales al caso de estudio, el cual fue evaluado a partir de una opción real compuesta durante las fases de inversión. Los resultados obtenidos evidenciaron que mediante el uso de los métodos tradicionales el proyecto fue clasificado como no factible, pero, al considerar la flexibilidad de los inversionistas, este resultó atractivo. Por tanto, al momento de evaluar la viabilidad financiera de un proyecto de inversión se deben considerar factores de riesgo e incertidumbre, los cuales agregan valor al análisis de factibilidad y presentan una visión más cercana a la realidad de los proyectos.

Copyright of Revista CEA is the property of Revista CEA and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

El objetivo del presente artículo se centra en resumir en forma exhaustiva y concisa las diferentes metodologías de estimación de la volatilidad que se han propuesto para el enfoque de opciones reales (real options approach o ROA) y brindar, además, una explicación teórica y práctica para estimar una volatilidad no sesgada e incondicional para dicha metodología. Los resultados de la investigación sugieren que la utilización de los métodos actuales genera una marcada sobreestimación de la volatilidad, lo que se transmite en última instancia en la sobrevaloración de la opción real. De esta forma se apropia el uso del método de estimación insesgado para determinar su impacto en la toma de decisiones para un proyecto real del sector de petróleo y gas en Colombia, en el que se estimó su valor estratégico por medio del uso de las opciones reales y se comparó con el resultado estático obtenido por el método de flujos de caja descontados (discounted cash flow o DCF); como resultado se encontró que se genera un valor adicional no percibido por la metodología tradicional que está acorde con la respectiva volatilidad que generó el commodity. Se propone que para futuras investigaciones se mantenga la condición de insesgamiento pero que la estimación sea condicional a través de modelos econométricos, con el fin de emular las irregularidades y las características empíricas que se presentan en las series financieras mediante la utilización, por ejemplo, un apropiado sistema de ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas, como condición necesaria para el comportamiento del precio y de la volatilidad del activo subyacente. || The aim of this paper is to summarize exhaustively and concisely, the different methodologies for estimating the volatility that has been proposed for the real options approach (ROA), and also provide a theoretical and practical explanation for estimating an unbiased volatility and unconditional for this methodology. The results of the research suggest that the use of the current methods generates a marked overestimation of the volatility, which is ultimately transmitted in the overvaluation of the real option. In this way, the application of the unbiased estimation method is used to determine its impact on decision-making for a real project in the oil and gas sector in Colombia, in which its strategic value was estimated through the use of real options, and it was compared with the static result obtained by the method of discounted cash flows (DCF); as a result it was found that, it is generated an additional value not perceived by the traditional methodology, that is consistent with the respective volatility that was generated by the commodity. It is proposed that for future research, unbiasedness condition is maintained, but that the estimate is conditional through econometric models, in order to emulate the irregularities and empirical characteristics presented in the financial series using, for example, an appropriate system of stochastic differential equations, as required condition for the performance of price, and the volatility of the underlying asset.

The problems related to the configuration of supply chains include quantitative and qualitative variables. Among the quantitative attributes, the most common is the money, and many attributes such as machine utilization, labor power and quality can be translated into monetary terms. Some examples of qualitative variables are people's mood, customer satisfaction, reputation in the community, appearance, aesthetics, etc. Multiple-attribute decision models integrate quantitative and qualitative attributes to produce an aggregate performance measure. This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision model using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the configuration of supply chains by integrating elements of financial flexibility through the analysis of real options. The model developed considers elements of financial risk based on the consideration of variables such as demand, exchange rates and interest rates, and allows assessing the operational flexibility of the project in the face of changes in said risk elements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Maguey is closely related to the marginalized areas of Mexico and lacks innovation processes; it mainly produces in Oaxaca for Mezcal and the production of pulque in Hidalgo and Tlaxcala. The objective of this study was to financially assess the pulque industry through its differentiation, generating a mead production project for agave syrup with respect to a project that only produces pulque considering the price volatility in states of Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Oaxaca. The hypothesis is that uncertainty creates opportunities that add value and benefit the producer. Method: Maguey pulquero prices and yields from 2005 to 2018 were obtained from SIAP. Production costs and investments were obtained from the Xamini S.P.R. of R. I. and were considered for the three states. The possibility of innovating pulque process from a traditional point of view through the Net Present Value (NPV) was analyzed; however, since it does not consider the price volatility, an evaluation was used using real options with binomial trees and Black- Scholes formulas with expansion scenarios to two hectares. Results: Hidalgo had, on average, the best yields, and which positions him as the main producer of this drink; however, its trend was downward. Oaxaca was the entity with the highest critical value (1.771) because it presented greater price volatility; therefore, the risk in investment is higher. Through the traditional evaluation, the projects in the pulque industry of Hidalgo and Tlaxcala were accepted with values greater than unity, not so for Oaxaca. With the evaluation of real options, once it is innovated, the project increased six times more for Hidalgo and Tlaxcala increased 37 times more. The numbers turned positive for Oaxaca, but it did not recover the investment initially; a similar situation occurs when the option is given to expanding the innovation to two hectares. With the evaluation of real options, once it is innovated, the project increased six times more for Hidalgo and Tlaxcala increased 37 times more, for Oaxaca the numbers turned positive, but it was not able to recover the initial investment. A similar situation happens when the option is given to expand the innovation to two hectares. Discussion or Conclusion: for a differentiated product such as agave syrup, the risk increases, but also the possibilities of increasing your income and being competitive in the market, which happens when the product is associated with the current needs of the consumer. This applies to Hidalgo and Tlaxcala, however, for Oaxaca, the project to differentiate the pulque industry is not very viable, since its production is irrelevant compared to mezcal. This study confirmed the hypothesis, when the product is differentiated in its production process, benefits increase, despite the uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research focuses on valuing an investment project through the Theory of Real Options Games (ROG), this approach allows extending the standard valuation analysis including flexibility and uncertainty scenarios in market structures such as monopoly and oligopoly, given the importance of making decision in investment projects, there is a need to identify strategies with tools to overcome the limitations of traditional methods based on the discounted cash flow model (DCF), analysing the impact that may exist on investment when incorporating the actions of other market participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Este artículo presenta una metodología para la conformación de un portafolio óptimo de activos de auto-generación de electricidad con fuentes de energía renovables (FER), considerando el Programa de Respuesta a la Demanda-Momentos de Uso. Se propone un modelo de optimización de la demanda y de simulación-optimización de los costos de generación del proyecto, el cual fue validado con software basado en simulación de Monte Carlo y Algoritmos Genéticos. El precio de la electricidad y la generación fueron modelados como variables estocásticas. La flexibilidad del valor presente del proyecto (AVf) es definida con la Teoría de Opciones Reales y el portafolio se calcula a través de la minimización de los costos. Se demuestra la pertinencia del método y la viabilidad de las FER en el sector comercial colombiano. Se estructuró un portafolio para un caso de estudio de un centro comercial en el que las fuentes fotovoltaicas constituyen el mayor aporte.

Copyright of Agricultura Sociedad y Desarrollo is the property of Colegio de Postgraduados and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Agrícolas is the property of Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Mexican peach production [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch] faces an economic crisis, as a result of the gradual decrease the area planted, production, prices, and national consumption per capita. Therefore, the producers have a low income. The objective of the study was to assess whether or not organic peach production would contribute to the improvement of the income of producers in the Estado de Mexico. The economic viability of turning the conventional production system into the organic production system was evaluated using the real options theory, while the abandonment option was assessed through the binomial option pricing model. In contrast to traditional valuation methods, the real options theory considers flexibility in decisions when the profitability of investments faces volatility and uncertainty. The quantified value of the crop by-products and residues was added to the farmer’s final income to find out if the amount would help to improve his income, during and after the conversion process. Given the positive value of the options, investing in organic production is feasible, even when the project abandonment option was considered. The economic valuation of the by-products contributed to improve the income of the producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work aims is real options empirically study as a technique for technology-based coffee investment projects financial valuation, in addition to comparing the traditional valuation projects techniques versus the real options technique. In order to get the goal of this work the real options technique was applied to four technology-based investment projects from the coffee sector, it is most be mentioning that the four investment projects have cash flows corresponding to ten years each one. The real options technique was use, specifically applying the model developed by the authors Black & Scholes. The analysis carried out in this investigation is limited to coffee investment projects, which were obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Mexico (SADER). Present investi gation originality is that in Mexico real option methodology does not tend to be used as a rule, but for reasons of ease, traditional techniques are used, consisting of net present value, internal rate of return and recovery period. With the application of the real options methodology, a higher value was obtain than that obtained by applying the traditional technique, so it can be said that the real options favor reducing risk and uncertainty in projects for a better evaluation of these. Therefore, the use of real options is highly recommended, since real options technique gives greater certainty of the results of the traditional technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Valuing a company represents a great challenge since it is necessary to incorporate the various risk factors to determine it fair value. Based on that, in this research we determine the value of a company in the Latin American retail field through the application of the real options methodology. The options consider the contribution of flexibility in the evaluation, so it is adjusted to uncertain scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research document is to analyze a mining company of an emerging economy, which is the world leader in copper. For the analysis, the method of valuation of real options proposed by Stewart Myers (Myers S., 1984) was selected based on the valuation work options made by Fisher Black and Myron Scholes in 1973, which has been complemented by authors such as Merton and Cox. In the study, the main relevant aspects in the valuation of companies are developed, considering that it is a little diffused topic at an academic level in Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new economics firms like start up, thecnological basis firms, R&D intangible, investments in innovatives strategies, among others, they caracterized by its dinamics and flexibility. For its valuation must be employ real options models. The model's main weakness reside in the complete markets assumptions, a difficult requierement to archive in emerging markets. For that is develop a model that combines the Edgeworth transformation and the isoelastic utility funtion (CRRA), incorporating the agent's degree risk aversion. Is use the cases analisys over a biofarmaceutical project with secuencial options, applying a sensibility analysis over the risk aversion coefficients and the option value. Is concludes about the advantajes of the model, particullary modeling the probabilty of extreme events beyond higher stochastic moments and risk attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Real Options Theory arose as an alternative to valuate flexibilities entrenched in projects and has acquired popularity since the end of the twentieth century. Through bibliometric methods and graph theory, this paper develops an analysis of the collaboration network comprised of Real Options' researchers, including scientific papers from over the last eighteen years. In this effort, we meticulously identify authors and their co-authorship alliances, finding a distinct topology without a giant component. Developing unweighted and weighted models, the network is unraveled, providing measurement from internationalization propensity and computing different impact metrics, which recognize the most relevant researchers on the subject. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The binomial model presents a set of properties that make it a suitable approach in order to value the real options, throughout an easy and practical application. This is possible by the adaptation of the valuation principle for non-arbitrage, own of the options pricing theory. However, their adoption may be limited for those options that have multiple sources of uncertainty, given that their interaction should be incorporated into the valuation process. In response, financial theory has proposed valuation approaches that allow different sources of uncertainty to be represented by a consolidated estimate of volatility, such as the Marketed Asset Disclaimer (mad) approach developed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001). As an alternative, a treatment that incorporates the dynamics of each uncertainty can be given. In this context, there are different proposals that extend the Binomial model to k-dimensional or multi-dimensional context. To achieve the application, it is necessary an approximation of the k-dimensional stochastic process, as well as its correlations. This paper presents a concise review of the different methods proposed in this context, as well as their benefits, limitations and, some alternative approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early termination of Public-Private Partnerships (ppp) usually occurs at any time during the life of the project, causing large costs for the parties. Specifically, the toll road concessions are exposed to high demand risk. Usually, highway concession contracts incorporate a compensation mechanism in case of early termination. However, the traditional techniques of the Discounted Cash Flow (dcf) used to value infrastructure projects do not capture the irreversibility of the investment, the uncertainty and the mechanisms of compensation for risk that allow taking actions to the parties involved in a concession contract. The early termination of a toll road concession can be valued as the concessionaire's right to abandon the execution of the project. The objective of this document is to assess the mechanism of early termination of a toll road concession as a contingent asset, implementing the theory of real options, where the value of the abandonment option depends on the risk of demand. The valuation methodology is applied to a real case study of the Program of the Fourth Generation of Highway Concessions (4G) by Colombian Government. The valuation of early termination mechanisms can help to understand ex-ante the risks faced by the public and private parties of a highway concession contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Ecos de Economía is the property of Universidad EAFIT and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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Resumen Asimilar el valor del patrimonio como una opción de compra sobre los activos permitió desarrollar un conjunto de modelos dinámicos para predecir fracasos financieros empresariales. No obstante, el concepto presenta una importante debilidad: la relación directa y positiva entre valor del capital (prima) y el nivel de volatilidad del activo subyacente. El razonamiento anterior indica que a mayor riesgo de la firma mayor debe ser su valor, lo que conduce a una lógica inconsistente para estimar probabilidades de fracasos financieros. Las opciones denominadas “exóticas barreras” constituyen un modelo alternativo para predecir dificultades financieras y su estructura se ajusta mejor a la relación valor-volatilidad en las empresas. El trabajo propone un modelo de opción barrera “operativo”, ya que simplifica la estimación de las inobservables variables: valor y riesgo del activo. Primero, se desarrolló formalmente los modelos de opción de compra simple y opción barrera para valorar el patrimonio de la firma y la estimación de probabilidades de fracaso financiero. Con un caso hipotético, se propuso un ejercicio de sensibilidad sobre volatilidades y plazos. Similar ejercicio se aplicó a dos firmas de capitales argentinos con diferentes grados de endeudamiento, gracias al cual se confirmó la consistencia entre volatilidad-valor-probabilidad de fracasos financieros del modelo propuesto. Finalmente se exponen las principales conclusiones. Abstract Assimilation of the capital value as a call option over firm’s assets allows to develop a group of dynamic models to predict corporate financial distress. However, the concept shows an important weakness: the direct and positive relationship between the capital value (call) with the level of underlying’s volatility. This reasoning indicates that the higher the risk is, the higher the value must be for the firm, leading to a weak rationality, in particular to estimate probabilities of financial distress. The exotic barrier options make an alternative approach for predicting financial distress, and its structure fits better to the firm valuevolatility relationship. The paper proposes a “naive” barrier option model, because it simplifies the estimation of the unobservable variables, like firm asset’s value and risk. First, a simple call and barrier option models are developed in order to value the firm’s capital and estimate the financial distress probability. Using an hypothetical case, it is proposed a sensibility exercise over period and volatility. Similar exercise is applied to estimate the capital value and financial distress probability over two firms of Argentinian capitals, with different leverage degree, confirming the consistency in the relationship between volatility-value-financial distress probability of the proposed model. Finally, the main conclusions are shown.

En este artículo se propone una metodología de valoración para la propiedad intelectual asociada a los desarrollos tecnológicos, a partir de una necesidad plenamente identificada en el mercado, la cual está asociada a la inclusión del valor en los estados financieros. El proceso de modelación se realizó con base en la integración de una metodología híbrida que contempla elementos cualitativos y cuantitativos dirigidos a establecer un valor. Se inició con un análisis alrededor de los métodos clásicamente utilizados para la valoración de negocios en marcha, proyectos y valuación de intangibles, logrando establecer factores de aplicación en las distintas etapas. Seguidamente se consideraron las nuevas corrientes aceptadas por la organización mundial de propiedad intelectual. Finalmente se propuso una metodología compuesta por factores que incluyeron el juicio de expertos, a fin de proponer un método replicable a cualquier tipo de activo, resaltando las bondades gracias a la aplicación de un caso real.

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar la posibilidad de expansión de una red integrada de servicios de salud mediante el uso de valoración por opciones reales. Para estimar el parámetro de volatilidad se estudian cuatro metodologías, dos de ellas son usadas en opciones reales las cuales se refieren a: Market Asset Disclaimer y Market Approach. Adicionalmente, las otras dos metodologías propuestas son empleadas en opciones financieras, las cuales son: volatilidad implícita del modelo de Merton y volatilidad implícita mediante Newton-Raphson. Los resultados muestran que la volatilidad estimada mediante las metodologías propuestas es similar a la obtenida por la metodología tradicional de Market Asset Disclaimer. La principal contribución de este artículo consiste en la construcción de la sonrisa de la volatilidad para opciones reales, que es fácil de implementar.

RESUMO A escolha da carreira é uma decisão importante e em geral é feita em um ambiente repleto de incertezas por pessoas relativamente jovens e inexperientes. Neste estudo, buscou-se analisar a decisão de escolha entre uma carreira em uma empresa privada e outra em um órgão público, considerando que existe flexibilidade para migrar do setor privado para o público por meio de concurso. Para tanto, utilizou-se a metodologia das opções reais para modelar essa opção de troca, assumindo-se que os ganhos futuros no setor privado são incertos. Os resultados sugerem que a opção de ingressar na carreira pública pode ter valor significativo em relação à privada.

RESUMO Fertilizantes são importantes para a produção agrícola mundial devido à melhoria de produtividade que proporcionam. Neste artigo, utiliza-se a teoria de opções reais para avaliar a opção de troca de produto final, amônia ou ureia, em uma fábrica de fertilizantes nitrogenados. O método de simulação Monte Carlo foi utilizado para definir o valor da opção de troca na fábrica de fertilizantes, considerando as incertezas nos preços do gás natural (principal matéria-prima), amônia e ureia, assumindo que esses seguissem um movimento de reversão à média. Nos resultados, aponta-se que essa opção é relevante na análise de projetos de fábricas de fertilizantes, podendo ser fundamental, em muitos casos, sua consideração para a viabilidade do projeto.

El desarrollo competitivo empresarial se basa en la satisfacción de las necesidades cambiantes de los clientes, por lo cual las empresas deben integrar la flexibilidad en la toma de decisiones para adaptar rápidamente su sistema productivo a dichos cambios. Las decisiones estratégicas de inversión en administración de la capacidad son de gran importancia en este proceso, debido a su carácter financiero y de largo plazo, por consiguiente, es necesario que estas sean evaluadas con precisión. Este documento plantea la evaluación de estas decisiones involucrando la valoración de la flexibilidad, tanto operativa como financiera, en una empresa del sector papel en el Valle del Cauca. En relación con esto, se caracterizaron las decisiones y los criterios a tener en cuenta al momento de evaluarlas usando como base la revisión de bibliografía especializada y el juicio de expertos. Por último, mediante un caso de estudio se ejemplificó el modelo propuesto. Siguiendo esta metodología se deben tener en cuenta tanto los criterios cuantitativos como los cualitativos para la evaluación de proyectos estratégicos de administración de la capacidad, siendo al análisis de opciones reales un elemento fundamental para evaluar la flexibilidad de la decisión.

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Copyright of Agro Productividad is the property of Colegio de Postgraduados and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)