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Time series of the number of infected individuals is measured to understand the dynamics of an infectious disease and to evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures against it. However, in fish diseases, it is often difficult to record the time series of the infected fish owing to i) ambiguous clinical symptoms during the onset of disease and ii) cost of diagnosis. To address this issue, we established a mathematical modeling-based method to infer time series of the number of infected fish by coupling the experimental infection and field data on the outbreak of the disease. This method enables to reconstruct time series of the number of infected fish using mortality data obtained from the experimental infection. The reconstructed time series enables to estimate the transmissibility of fish diseases. We studied Oncorhynchus masou virus (salmonid herpesvirus 2) disease (OMVD) using Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) as a model for analysis and estimated the lethality rate of OMVD infection and the basic reproduction number (R0), i.e., transmissibility of OMVD. Our results revealed that larger fish (>= 200 g) showed a higher OMVD lethality rate and R0s when compared with smaller fish (<200 g). This suggests that high mortality among large fish does not inhibit the transmission of pathogen when compared with small fish.

Understanding the impact of vaccination in a host population is essential to control infectious diseases. However, the impact of bait vaccination against wildlife diseases is difficult to evaluate. The vaccination history of host animals is generally not observable in wildlife, and it is difficult to distinguish immunity by vaccination from that caused by disease infection. For these reasons, the impact of bait vaccination against classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar inhabiting Japan has not been evaluated accurately. In this study, we aimed to estimate the impact of the bait vaccination campaign by modelling the dynamics of CSF and the vaccination process among a Japanese wild boar population. The model was designed to estimate the impact of bait vaccination despite lack of data regarding the demography and movement of wild boar. Using our model, we solved the theoretical relationship between the impact of vaccination, the time-series change in the proportion of infected wild boar, and that of immunised wild boar. Using this derived relationship, the increase in antibody prevalence against CSF because of vaccine campaigns in 2019 was estimated to be 12.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 7.8-16.5). Referring to previous reports on the basic reproduction number (R-0) of CSF in wild boar living outside Japan, the amount of vaccine distribution required for CSF elimination by reducing the effective reproduction number under unity was also estimated. An approximate 1.6 (when R-0 = 1.5, target vaccination coverage is 33.3% of total population) to 2.9 (when R-0 = 2.5, target vaccination coverage is 60.0% of total population) times larger amount of vaccine distribution would be required than the total amount of vaccine distribution in four vaccination campaigns in 2019.

We clarified the genetic diversity of Trypanosoma spp. within the Kafue ecosystem, using PCR targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 and the cathepsin L-like cysteine protease (CatL) sequences. The overall prevalence of Trypanosoma spp. in cattle and tsetse flies was 12.65 and 26.85%, respectively. Cattle positive for Trypanosoma vivax had a significantly lower packed cell volume, suggesting that T. vivax is the dominant Trypanosoma spp. causing anemia in this area. Among the 12 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) of T. vivax CatL sequences detected, one was from a known T. vivax lineage, two OTUs were from known T. vivax-like lineages, and nine OTUs were considered novel T. vivax-like lineages. These findings support previous reports that indicated the extensive diversity of T. vivax-like lineages. The findings also indicate that combining CatL PCR with next generation sequencing is useful in assessing Trypanosoma spp. diversity, especially for T. vivax and T. vivax-like lineages. In addition, the 5.42% prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense found in cattle raises concern in the community and requires careful monitoring of human African trypanosomiasis.

Rabies remains endemic in Zambia. Despite conducting canine vaccinations in Lusaka district, the vaccination coverage and actual seropositivity in the dog population in Lusaka district are rarely evaluated. This study estimated the seropositivity-based immunization coverage in the owned dog population in Lusaka district using the expanded program on immunization cluster survey method. The time-series trend of neutralizing antibodies against rabies in vaccinated dogs was also evaluated. Of 366 dogs in 200 dog-owning households in Lusaka district, blood samples were collected successfully from 251 dogs. In the sampled dogs, 42.2% (106/251) had an antibody titer >= 0.5 IU/mL. When the 115 dogs whose blood was not collected were assumed to be seronegative, the minimum immunization coverage in Lusaka district's owned dog population was estimated at 29.0% (95% confidence interval: 22.4-35.5). It was also found that a single vaccination with certified vaccines is capable of inducing protective levels of antibodies. In contrast, higher antibody titers were observed in multiple-vaccinated dogs than in single-vaccinated dogs, coupled with the observation of a decline in antibody titer over time. These results suggest the importance of continuous booster immunization to maintain herd immunity and provide useful information to plan mass vaccination against rabies in Zambia.

Background An estimated 75% or more of the human rabies cases in Africa occur in rural settings, which underscores the importance of rabies control in these areas. Understanding dog demographics can help design strategies for rabies control and plan and conduct canine mass vaccination campaigns effectively in African countries. Methodology/Principal findings A cross-sectional survey was conducted to investigate domestic dog demographics in Kalambabakali, in the rural Mazabuka District of Zambia. The population of ownerless dogs and the total achievable vaccination coverage among the total dog population was estimated using the capture-recapture-based Bayesian model by conducting a canine mass vaccination campaign. This study revealed that 29% of the domestic dog population was under one year old, and 57.7% of those were under three months old and thus were not eligible for the canine rabies vaccination in Zambia. The population growth was estimated at 15% per annum based on the cross-sectional household survey. The population of ownerless dogs was estimated to be small, with an ownerless-to-owned-dog ratio of 0.01-0.06 in the target zones. The achieved overall vaccination coverage from the first mass vaccination was estimated 19.8-51.6%. This low coverage was principally attributed to the owners' lack of information, unavailability, and dog-handling difficulties. The follow-up mass vaccination campaign achieved an overall coverage of 54.8-76.2%. Conclusions/Significance This paper indicates the potential for controlling canine rabies through mass vaccination in rural Zambia. Rabies education and responsible dog ownership are required to achieve high and sustainable vaccination coverage. Our findings also propose including puppies below three months old in the target population for rabies vaccination and emphasize that securing an annual enforcement of canine mass vaccination that reaches 70% coverage in the dog population is necessary to maintain protective herd imm

The actual number of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is difficult to estimate using a case-reporting system (i.e., passive surveillance) alone because of asymptomatic infection. While wastewater-based epidemiology has been implemented as an alternative/additional monitoring tool to reduce reporting bias, the relationship between passive and wastewater surveillance data has not yet been explicitly examined. As there is strong age dependency in the symptomatic ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infections, here, we aimed to estimate i) an age-dependent association between the number of reported cases and viral load in wastewater and ii) the time lag between these time series. The viral load in wastewater was modeled as a combination of contributions from virus shedding by different age groups, incorporating the delay, and fitted with daily case count data collected from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater recorded by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. The estimated lag between the time series of viral loads in wastewater and of reported cases was 10.8 (95% confidence interval: 10.2-11.6) and 8.8 (8.4-9.1) days for the northern and southern areas of the wastewater treatment plant, respectively. The estimated contribution rate of a reported case to the viral load in wastewater in the 0-19 yr age group was 0.38 (0.35-0.41) and 0.40 (0.37-0.43) for the northern and southern areas, and that in the 80+ yr age group was 0.67 (0.65-0.69) and 0.51 (0.49-0.52) for the northern and southern areas, respectively. The estimated lag between these time series suggested the predictability of reported cases 10 days later using viral loads in wastewater. The contribution of a reported case in passive surveillance to the viral load in wastewater differed by age, suggesting a large variation in viral shedding kinetics among age groups. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.