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On December 22, 2018, a sector of the Anak Krakatau volcano edifice collapsed into the sea, generating a tsunami that hit the Sunda Strait coasts in Indonesia. The collapse followed a period of 6 months of volcanic activity that was insufficient to warn the tsunami-threatened coastal population. The Anak Krakatau tsunami resulted in hundreds of casualties, thousands of injured and displaced people, and massive coastal damage. This paper uses the tsunami records, the collected field survey data, and satellite imagery-based interpretations to develop a model of the Anak Krakatau flank failure and tsunami. We address the dynamics of the flank failure, the tsunami generation and propagation, and the coastal impact using evidence-calibrated numerical modelling. An in-house-developed multi-layer viscoplastic shallow-water numerical code is employed to simulate the Anak Krakatau collapse mass movement and the whole source-to-coast tsunami process. Our results suggest that a flank collapse scenario involving a volume of material of 0.135 km3 and occurring as a sequence of two failures fairly reproduces the local and regional tsunami records and survey data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On September 28th, 2018, a powerful earthquake (Mw 7.5) struck the Island of Sulawesi in Indonesia. The earthquake was followed by a destructive and deadly tsunami that hit the Bay of Palu. A UNESCO international tsunami survey team responded to the disaster and surveyed 125 km of coastline along the Palu Bay up to the earthquake epicentre region. The team performed 78 tsunami runup and inundation height measurements throughout the surveyed coastline. Measured values reached 9.1 m for the runup height and 8.7 m for the inundation height, both at Benteng village. The survey team also identified ten large coastal sectors that collapsed into the sea of Palu Bay after the earthquake. The distribution of the measured tsunami data within Palu Bay exhibits a clear localised impact suggesting the contribution of secondary non-seismic local sources to the generation of the tsunami. Findings of the field reconnaissance are discussed to provide an insight into the remaining debated source of the Palu tsunami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Tsunamis can be responsible for coastal geomorphic crises. Extensively inundated coasts can suffer widespread and dramatic changes in their morphology due to sediment erosion, transport, and deposition processes. In this paper, we investigate the tsunami-induced morphological changes on coasts prone to inundation and how sediment transport is controlled by both tsunami and sediment characteristics. We focus on a tsunami-prone coast in the NE Atlantic, Tangier-Morocco, that experienced the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. We use a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic numerical model, together with high-resolution digital elevation and sedimentary models, to simulate the impact of tsunamis on the morphology and sediment distribution of Tangier Bay. Due to the uncertainty on the source and effects of the 1755 event, we consider two 1755-like tsunamigenic scenarios that have the potential to cause different levels of inundation. Results show that the coastal zone of Tangier can undergo substantial changes in morphology and sediment distribution following the tsunami impact. For the selected scenarios, the volume of sediments mobilized, at both the offshore and onshore zones of the Tangier site, ranges from 30,000 to 200,000 m3. Moreover, the presence of mobile sediments and conditions favoring tsunami shoaling lead to an increase in wave impact on the coastal configuration. Conversely, the presence of the breakwaters helps to protect the Tangier coast by limiting the extent of the affected area. The results of this study suggest that the assessment of tsunami-induced coastal impact should include the effect on morphology. Highlights • Morphological changes are a critical component of tsunami coastal impact assessment. • Tangier coast is prone to inundation and geomorphic changes from tsunamis in the SWIM. • 1755-like earthquake scenarios cause different impacts along the Tangier coast. • Major erosion occurs at the wadi mouths of the Tangier bay. • Tangier breakwaters help reducing the tsunami-induced impact on the coastal morphology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 8 May 1939, an earthquake (Ms7.1) occurred near the Azores archipelago, with an epicentre located close to the western end of the Gloria fault. Previous studies present different epicentre locations spreading over a large area, and two different types of focal mechanisms. Given these uncertainties, the interpretation of the seismological information in a complex tectonic environment between the Gloria Fault and the Terceira Ridge is a matter of debate. The event caused a small tsunami recorded in the Azores Islands. In this study, we use the tsunami observations and tsunami numerical modelling to select the earthquake fault rupture that best fits the tsunami observations. We consider the different focal mechanism solutions, perform tsunami numerical modelling, and compute synthetic tsunami waveforms at the tide gauge locations. We find that an earthquake caused by a low-angle dipping fault with dominant strike–slip movement generates a tsunami that reproduces well the record at Ponta Delgada tide gauge. Finally, in areas where earthquakes are rare, the study of ancient earthquakes must use all information available, namely tsunami observations and mareograph data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A response from the authors of the article "Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard in the Northeast Atlantic From Near- and Far-Field Tectonic Sources" that was published in the previous issue is presented.

This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunamis occur quite frequently following large magnitude earthquakes along the Chilean coast. Most of these earthquakes occur along the Peru-Chile Trench, one of the most seismically active subduction zones of the world. This study aims to understand better the characteristics of the tsunamis triggered along the Peru-Chile Trench. We investigate the tsunamis induced by the Mw8.3 Illapel, the Mw8.2 Iquique and the Mw8.8 Maule Chilean earthquakes that happened on September 16th, 2015, April 1st, 2014 and February 27th, 2010, respectively. The study involves the relation between the co-seismic deformation and the tsunami generation, the near-field tsunami propagation, and the spectral analysis of the recorded tsunami signals in the near-field. We compare the tsunami characteristics to highlight the possible similarities between the three events and, therefore, attempt to distinguish the specific characteristics of the tsunamis occurring along the Peru-Chile Trench. We find that these three earthquakes present faults with important extensions beneath the continent which result in the generation of tsunamis with short wavelengths, relative to the fault widths involved, and with reduced initial potential energy. In addition, the presence of the Chilean continental margin, that includes the shelf of shallow bathymetry and the continental slope, constrains the tsunami propagation and the coastal impact. All these factors contribute to a concentrated local impact but can, on the other hand, reduce the far-field tsunami effects from earthquakes along Peru-Chile Trench. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Novel conceptional model for the tsunamigenesis of coastal mass-wasting events. • Unlocking the debate on the tsunamigenic potential of small-scale coastal collapses. • Benchmarking a cliff-failure tsunami numerical model with historical data. • First detailed investigation of the 1930 Cabo Girão tsunami in Madeira, NE Atlantic. Mass-wasting events are a key process in the evolution of volcanic ocean islands. They occur at various dimensional scales and present a major source of hazard. When the collapsed material plunges into the sea, destructive tsunamis can be generated. Yet, the hazard potential of collapse-induced tsunamis is still poorly understood with different opinions on what consequences to expect from this type of events, particularly those related to massive volcanic island flank collapses. In this paper, however, we explore the hazard extent of tsunamis triggered by the smaller – but more frequent – coastal cliff-failures, in order to isolate critical factors in the generation, propagation and impact of these tsunamis. To achieve this, we use the prime example of Madeira, a volcanic island in the Atlantic Ocean highly vulnerable to cliff-failure. Particularly, we explore the March 4th, 1930 Cabo Girão event that triggered a deadly tsunami. The coastal impact of the 1930 "Deadly Wave", as the island's inhabitants referred to the generated tsunami, resulted in 19 fatalities. We use historical description, morphological analysis, and numerical modelling to better understand the tsunamigenesis of tall island cliffs failing into the sea. Interestingly, we find that a relatively small-scale mass-wasting event (∼0.003 km3 volume) was the cause of the reported tsunami that inundated the nearest coasts. Our numerical results, fairly agreeing with the available collapse and subsequent tsunami descriptions, suggest that the tsunami impact was mainly localized on the southern coast of Madeira Island. Furthermore, our study allows proposing a novel morphology-based conceptional model for the tsunamigenesis and hazard extent induced by mass-wasting events on oceanic volcanic islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method presented here aims to assess the tsunami threat very rapidly after the occurrence of a large earthquake, using as input the parameters of the seismic source, and an approach based on Green's summation. We show that the main weakness of the approach (the need to consider only linear shallow water propagation) is largely compensated by the advantages in terms of computing performance and independence with respect to pre-computed scenarios. To test the approach and to illustrate its implementation in a real environment, we focus on the Sea of Oman, a tsunamigenic area characterized by Makran subduction zone which detailed structure is partially unknown and where secondary tsunami sources must also be taken into account, both for hazard studies and warning purposes. The potential source area is partitioned into a grid of unity water sources. A shallow water (SW) numerical model is used to pre-compute the corresponding empirical Green's functions on several points of interest located on the coasts of Iran, Pakistan and Oman. The comparison between Green's summation and the direct SW computation using the full resolution of the bathymetric grid shows that the accuracy is good enough for practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS, SIRM) and grain size (χ ARM, ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6m and run up of ∼7m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Storm- and tsunami-deposits are generated by similar depositional mechanisms making their discrimination hard to establish using classic sedimentologic methods. Here we propose an original approach to identify tsunami-induced deposits by combining numerical simulation and rock magnetism. To test our method, we investigate the tsunami deposit of the Boca do Rio estuary generated by the 1755 earthquake in Lisbon which is well described in the literature. We first test the 1755 tsunami scenario using a numerical inundation model to provide physical parameters for the tsunami wave. Then we use concentration (MS, SIRM) and grain size (χ ARM, ARM, B1/2, ARM/SIRM) sensitive magnetic proxies coupled with SEM microscopy to unravel the magnetic mineralogy of the tsunami-induced deposit and its associated depositional mechanisms. In order to study the connection between the tsunami deposit and the different sedimentologic units present in the estuary, magnetic data were processed by multivariate statistical analyses. Our numerical simulation show a large inundation of the estuary with flow depths varying from 0.5 to 6m and run up of ∼7m. Magnetic data show a dominance of paramagnetic minerals (quartz) mixed with lesser amount of ferromagnetic minerals, namely titanomagnetite and titanohematite both of a detrital origin and reworked from the underlying units. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate a better connection between the tsunami-induced deposit and a mixture of Units C and D. All these results point to a scenario where the energy released by the tsunami wave was strong enough to overtop and erode important amount of sand from the littoral dune and mixed it with reworked materials from underlying layers at least 1m in depth. The method tested here represents an original and promising tool to identify tsunami-induced deposits in similar embayed beach environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional and global tsunami hazard analysis requires simplified and efficient methods for estimating the tsunami inundation height and its related uncertainty. One such approach is the amplification factor (AF) method. Amplification factors describe the relation between offshore wave height and the maximum inundation height, as predicted by linearized plane wave models employed for incident waves with different wave characteristics. In this study, a new amplification factor method is developed that takes into account the offshore bathymetry proximal to the coastal site. The present AFs cover the North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean (NEAM) region. The model is the first general approximate model that quantifies inundation height uncertainty. Uncertainty quantification is carried out by analyzing the inundation height variability in more than 500 high-resolution inundation simulations at six different coastal sites. The inundation simulations are undertaken with different earthquake sources in order to produce different wave period and polarity. We show that the probability density of the maximum inundation height can be modeled with a log-normal distribution, whose median is quite well predicted by the AF. It is further demonstrated that the associated maximum inundation height uncertainties are significant and must be accounted for in tsunami hazard analysis. The application to the recently developed TSUMAPS-NEAM probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is presented as a use case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modelling is a fundamental tool for scenario-based evaluation of hazardous phenomena such as tsunami. Nevertheless, the numerical prediction highly depends on the tool quality and therefore the design of efficient numerical schemes that provide robust and accurate solutions still receives considerable attention. In this paper, we implement two different second-order finite volume numerical schemes deriving from an a priori or an a posteriori limitation procedure and we compare their efficiency in solving the non-conservative shallow-water equations. The numerical schemes assessed here are two variants of the a priori Monotonic Upstream-Centred Scheme for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) and the recent a posteriori multidimensional optimal order detection (MOOD) technique. We benchmark the numerical code, equipped with MUSCL and MOOD techniques, against: (1) a 1-D stationary problem with non-constant bathymetry to assess the second-order convergence of the method when a smooth analytical solution is involved; (2) a 1-D dam-break test to show its capacity to deal with irregular and discontinuous bathymetry in wet zones; and (3) using a simple 1-D analytical tsunami benchmark, 'single wave on a sloping beach', we show that the classical 1-D shallow-water system can be accurately solved by the second-order finite volume methods. Furthermore, we test the performance of the numerical code for the real-case tsunami of Tohoku-Oki, 2011. Through a set of 2-D numerical simulations, the 2011 tsunami records from both DART and GPS buoys are checked against the simulated results using MUSCL and MOOD. We find that the use of the MOOD technique leads to a better approximation between the numerical solutions and the observations than the MUSCL one. MOOD allows sharper shock capture and generates less numerical diffusion, suggesting it as a promising technique for solving shallow-water problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]