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The global demand for agricultural commodities has driven extensive land conversion to agriculture in Brazil, especially in the MATOPIBA region. This area encompasses the Rio Grande Basin, a major tributary of the São Francisco Basin that is known for expanding intensive irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. However, recent data reveal declining precipitation and aquifer recharge, potentially exacerbating ongoing water and land conflicts. This study investigates the long-term sustainability of agricultural expansion amid the worsening water scarcity using a system dynamics model. Findings suggest that rising costs and decreasing profits due to irrigation water shortages may hinder the expansion of irrigated land. By 2040, the irrigation demand may remain partly unmet, while downstream flow and baseflow could decrease. Additionally, agricultural expansion will significantly raise energy demand, posing a developmental challenge. We suggest that ensuring the sustainability of the Rio Grande Basin depends on improved water management and exploring alternative energy sources to address existing constraints., (© 2024. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.)

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss., (© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Information on pollutant trophodynamics can be crucial for public health, as contaminated food consumption may lead to deleterious effects. This study was performed in Puruzinho Lake, a remote body of water in the Brazilian Amazon from which a riparian human population obtains an important part of its animal protein intake. Samples from 92 individuals, comprising 13 species and four trophic guilds (iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous, and piscivorous fish) were analysed for the determination of trace elements (Fe, Cr, Mn, Ni, Zn, Ca, Sr, Cd, Sn, Tl and Pb) and methylmercury concentrations. Samples from the same individuals had already been analysed for stable isotope (SI) measurements (δ 13 C and δ 15 N) in a previous investigation and the SI data have been statistically treated with those generated in this study for the evaluation of trophic dynamics of contaminants. Methylmercury was the only analyte that biomagnified, presenting TMF values of 4.65 and 4.55 for total and resident ichthyofauna, respectively. Trace elements presented either trophic dilution or independence from the trophic position, constituting a behaviour that was coherent with that found in the scientific literature. The similarity between Ni behaviour through the trophic web to that of essential elements contributes to the discussion on the essentiality of this metal to fish. Considering the Non-cancer Risk Assessment, the calculated Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values were higher than 1.0 for all analysed individuals for methylmercury, as well as for only one individual for nickel. No other analyte rendered THQ values higher than 1.0., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Indigenous societies are known to have occupied the Amazon basin for more than 12,000 years, but the scale of their influence on Amazonian forests remains uncertain. We report the discovery, using LIDAR (light detection and ranging) information from across the basin, of 24 previously undetected pre-Columbian earthworks beneath the forest canopy. Modeled distribution and abundance of large-scale archaeological sites across Amazonia suggest that between 10,272 and 23,648 sites remain to be discovered and that most will be found in the southwest. We also identified 53 domesticated tree species significantly associated with earthwork occurrence probability, likely suggesting past management practices. Closed-canopy forests across Amazonia are likely to contain thousands of undiscovered archaeological sites around which pre-Columbian societies actively modified forests, a discovery that opens opportunities for better understanding the magnitude of ancient human influence on Amazonia and its current state.

This study aims to map the changes in land use and land cover between 1970 and 2018, analyzing the influence of the protected area s (PAs) in the Cerrado biome, specifically in the area of the Jalapão Mosaic. Images from the Landsat 1-MSS, 5-TM, and 8-OLI satellites were used and processed in SPRING and ArcGIS software. The analyses were based on three approaches: (1) the boundary of the Jalapão Mosaic, (2) the PAs, and (3) a comparison between the PAs and their surroundings. The Jalapão Mosaic results demonstrated that 26% (≅ 8410 km 2 ) of the area was burned, and 15.5% (4971 km 2 ) was anthropized in at least one of the analyzed periods. Among the PAs, the Serra Geral do Tocantins Ecological Station (Integral Protection) presented the largest burned area (43.7% ≅ 3095 km 2 ); however, there was no significant increase in the anthropized areas due to fire. Meanwhile, the anthropized areas in the Rio Preto and Serra da Tabatinga Environmental Protection Areas (Sustainable Use) increased by 27.5% and by 75%, respectively, due to agricultural expansion. By analyzing the two groups of PAs and their surroundings, it was observed that the loss of natural vegetation was restrained and fires were less intense in the Integral Protection Units; in the Sustainable Use Units, there was a significant increase in the anthropized areas. Furthermore, over 70% of the anthropized areas occurred in the surrounding areas, thus showing the importance of creating PAs., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

We report large-scale estimates of Amazonian gap dynamics using a novel approach with large datasets of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), including five multi-temporal and 610 single-date lidar datasets. Specifically, we (1) compared the fixed height and relative height methods for gap delineation and established a relationship between static and dynamic gaps (newly created gaps); (2) explored potential environmental/climate drivers explaining gap occurrence using generalized linear models; and (3) cross-related our findings to mortality estimates from 181 field plots. Our findings suggest that static gaps are significantly correlated to dynamic gaps and can inform about structural changes in the forest canopy. Moreover, the relative height outperformed the fixed height method for gap delineation. Well-defined and consistent spatial patterns of dynamic gaps were found over the Amazon, while also revealing the dynamics of areas never sampled in the field. The predominant pattern indicates 20-35% higher gap dynamics at the west and southeast than at the central-east and north. These estimates were notably consistent with field mortality patterns, but they showed 60% lower magnitude likely due to the predominant detection of the broken/uprooted mode of death. While topographic predictors did not explain gap occurrence, the water deficit, soil fertility, forest flooding and degradation were key drivers of gap variability at the regional scale. These findings highlight the importance of lidar in providing opportunities for large-scale gap dynamics and tree mortality monitoring over the Amazon.

The climate change projections for the Caatinga biome this century are for an increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall, leading to aridization and plant cover dominated by Cactaceae. The objective of this study was to model the potential distribution of Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., a cactus that is native to the Caatinga biome, considering two possible future climate scenarios, to assess this species' spatio-temporal response to these climate change, and thus to evaluate the need or not for conservation measures. For this purpose, we obtained biogeographic information on the target species from biodiversity databases, choosing nine environmental variables and applying the MaxEnt algorithm. We considered the time intervals 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, centered on 2050 and 2070, respectively, and the greenhouse gas scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5. For all the scenarios considered, the models generated for 2050 and 2070 projected drastic contraction (greater than 80%) for the areas of potential occurrence of the species in relation to the present potential. The remaining areas were found to be concentrated in the northern portion of the biome, specifically in the northern part of the state of Ceará, which has particular characteristics.

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional human populations. We assessed the vulnerability to climate change of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic-change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation cover, and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). This combination of indicators allows the identification of broad climate-change adaptation pathways. Seventeen PAs (20,611 km 2 ) were highly vulnerable and located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Two hundred fifty-eight PAs (756,569 km 2 ), located primarily in Amazonia, had a medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado, the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drove vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. Over 80% of PAs of high or moderate vulnerability are managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people inhabiting these PAs may be threatened. In at least 870 PAs, primarily in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate-change hazard, high resilience status, or both. At least 20 PAs in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for stronger interventions (e.g., improvement of ecological connectivity), given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to link vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that some of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future., (© 2019 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Water resources are fundamental for the social and economic development of a country and sustainability is the best approach to treat water-related problems. Therefore, sustainability studies of water resources are deemed urgent. Sustainability analysis methods should enable space-temporal monitoring, decision-making, and development of policies necessary for water governance. Furthermore, sustainability analysis methods should also integrate environment and socioeconomic variables into a single system. In this context, this study aimed to assess the water sustainability conditions of the River Grande Basin (BHRG), Brazil, before the implementation of the Integrated Water Resources Plan (IWRP), using the Barometer of Sustainability tool (BS). The River Grande basin was in an "almost unsustainable" condition and under high environmental stress. A significant imbalance between environmental and human well-being in the system was also observed. To achieve an acceptable sustainability condition, it is thus necessary to improve the environmental quality of the area. Among the priority thematic area, native vegetation recovery was the most urgent. Overall, the sustainability study based on the BS not only facilitates comprehension regarding environment and human interrelationships, but also provide references for policy formulations and water management.

Large uncertainties still dominate the hypothesis of an abrupt large-scale shift of the Amazon forest caused by climate change [Amazonian forest dieback (AFD)] even though observational evidence shows the forest and regional climate changing. Here, we assess whether mitigation or adaptation action should be taken now, later, or not at all in light of such uncertainties. No action/later action would result in major social impacts that may influence migration to large Amazonian cities through a causal chain of climate change and forest degradation leading to lower river-water levels that affect transportation, food security, and health. Net-present value socioeconomic damage over a 30-year period after AFD is estimated between US dollar (USD) $957 billion (×10 9 ) and $3,589 billion (compared with Gross Brazilian Amazon Product of USD $150 billion per year), arising primarily from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Costs of acting now would be one to two orders of magnitude lower than economic damages. However, while AFD mitigation alternatives-e.g., curbing deforestation-are attainable (USD $64 billion), their efficacy in achieving a forest resilience that prevents AFD is uncertain. Concurrently, a proposed set of 20 adaptation measures is also attainable (USD $122 billion) and could bring benefits even if AFD never occurs. An interdisciplinary research agenda to fill lingering knowledge gaps and constrain the risk of AFD should focus on developing sound experimental and modeling evidence regarding its likelihood, integrated with socioeconomic assessments to anticipate its impacts and evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of mitigation/adaptation options., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Scenedesmus obliquus (ACOI 204/07) microalgae were cultivated in cattle wastewater in vertical alveolar flat panel photobioreactors, operated in batch and continuous mode, after previous digestion in a hybrid anaerobic reactor. In batch operation, removal efficiencies ranges of 65 to 70% of COD, 98 to 99% of NH 4 + and 69 to 77.5% of PO 4 -3 after 12days were recorded. The corresponding figures for continuous flow were from 57 to 61% of COD, 94 to 96% of NH 4 + and 65 to 70% of PO 4 -3 with mean hidraulic retention time of 12days. Higher rates of CO 2 fixation (327-547mgL -1 d -1 ) and higher biomass volumetric productivity (213-358mgL -1 d -1 ) were obtained in batch mode. This microalgae-mediated process can be considered promising for bioremediation and valorization of effluents produced by cattle breeding yielding a protein-rich microalgal biomass that could be eventually used as cattle feed., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Episodic multi-year droughts fundamentally alter the dynamics, functioning, and structure of Amazonian forests. However, the capacity of individual plant species to withstand intense drought regimes remains unclear. Here, we evaluated ecophysiological responses from a forest community where we sampled 83 woody plant species during 5 years of experimental drought (throughfall exclusion) in an eastern Amazonian terra firme forest. Overall, the experimental drought resulted in shifts of some, but not all, leaf traits related to photosynthetic carbon uptake and intrinsic water-use efficiency. Leaf δ 13 C values increased by 2-3‰ within the canopy, consistent with increased diffusional constraints on photosynthesis. Decreased leaf C:N ratios were also observed, consistent with lower investments in leaf structure. However, no statistically significant treatment effects on leaf nitrogen content were observed, consistent with a lack of acclimation in photosynthetic capacity or increased production of nitrogen-based secondary metabolites. The results of our study provide evidence of robust acclimation potential to drought intensification in the diverse flora of an Amazonian forest community. The results reveals considerable ability of several species to respond to intense drought and challenge commonly held perspectives that this flora has attained limited adaptive plasticity because of a long evolutionary history in a favorable and stable climate.

New data on biogas production and treatment of cattle wastewater were registered using an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket-anaerobic filter (UASB-AF) hybrid reactor under mesophilic temperature conditions (37 °C). The reactor was operated in semi-continuous mode with hydraulic retention times of 6, 5, 3 and 2 days and organic loading rates of 3.8, 4.6, 7.0 and 10.8 kg COD t m -3 d -1 . Biogas volumes of 0.6-0.8 m 3 m -3 d -1 (3.8-4.6 kg COD t m -3 d -1 ) and 1.2-1.4 m 3 m -3 d -1 (7.0-10.8 kg COD t m -3 d -1 ), with methane concentrations between 69 and 75%, were attained. The removal of organic matter with values of 60-81% (COD t ) and 51-75% (COD s ) allowed methane yields of 0.155-0.183 m 3 CH 4 kg -1 COD t and 0.401-0.513 m 3 CH 4 kg -1 COD s to be obtained. Volatile solids were removed in 34 to 69%, with corresponding methane yields of 0.27 to 0.42 m 3 CH 4 kg -1 VS removed . The good performance of the novel hybrid reactor was demonstrated by biogas outputs higher than reported previously in the literature, along with the quality of the gas obtained in the various experimental phases. The hybrid reactor investigated in this study presents comparative advantages, particularly in relation to conventional complete mixture units, considering economic factors such as energy consumption, reactor volume and installation area.

The present study assesses mercury biomagnification and the trophic structure of the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake, Brazilian Amazon. In addition to mercury determination, the investigation comprised the calculation of Trophic Magnification Factor (TMF) and Trophic Magnification Slope (TMS), through the measurements of stable isotopes of carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) in fish samples. These assessments were executed in two different scenarios, i.e., considering (1) all fish species or (2) only the resident fish (excluding the migratory species). Bottom litter, superficial sediment and seston were the sources used for generating the trophic position (TP) data used in the calculation of the TMF. Samples from 84 fish were analysed, comprising 13 species, which were categorized into four trophic guilds: iliophagous, planktivorous, omnivorous and piscivorous fish. The δ 13 C values pointed to the separation of the ichthyofauna into two groups. One group comprised iliophagous and planktivorous species, which are linked to the food chains of phytoplankton and detritus. The other group was composed by omnivorous and piscivorous fish, which are associated to the trophic webs of phytoplankton, bottom litter, detritus, periphyton, as well as to food chains of igapó (blackwater-flooded Amazonian forests). The TP values suggest that the ichthyofauna from the Puruzinho Lake is part of a short food web, with three well-characterized trophic levels. Mercury concentrations and δ 13 C values point to multiple sources for Hg input and transfer. The similarity in Hg levels and TP values between piscivorous and planktivorous fish suggests a comparable efficiency for the transfer of this metal through pelagic and littoral food chains. Regarding the two abovementioned scenarios, i.e., considering (1) the entire ichthyofauna and (2) only the resident species, the TMF values were 5.25 and 4.49, as well as the TMS values were 0.21 and 0.19, respectively. These findings confirm that Hg biomagnifies through the food web of Puruzinho Lake ichthyofauna. The migratory species did not significantly change mercury biomagnification rate in Puruzinho Lake; however, they may play a relevant role in Hg transport. The biomagnification rate (TMS value) in Puruzinho Lake was higher than the average values for its latitude, being comparable to TMS values of temperate and polar systems (marine and freshwater environments)., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)