Search

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index \gamma. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, \gamma_run(f) = \gamma + \beta \ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter \beta consistent with no running, \beta \in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero \beta. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Those analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions are idealizations that may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks: after fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications, and use them to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients assume extreme values for the real data when compared to the replications. We confirm that the NANOGrav 15 yr data set is consistent with power-law and Hellings--Downs assumptions. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2\ $\sigma$ and 3\ $\sigma$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background as reported by NANOGrav., Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 \sigma - 1.9 \sigma$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 \sigma - 2.1 \sigma$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26$~nHz break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, 1 appendix, submitted to ApJ

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $\eta>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $\eta>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations., Comment: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

We present the results of a Bayesian search for gravitational wave (GW) memory in the NANOGrav 12.5-yr data set. We find no convincing evidence for any gravitational wave memory signals in this data set (Bayes factor = 2.8). As such, we go on to place upper limits on the strain amplitude of GW memory events as a function of sky location and event epoch. These upper limits are computed using a signal model that assumes the existence of a common, spatially uncorrelated red noise in addition to a GW memory signal. The median strain upper limit as a function of sky position is approximately $3.3 \times 10^{-14}$. We also find that there are some differences in the upper limits as a function of sky position centered around PSR J0613$-$0200. This suggests that this pulsar has some excess noise which can be confounded with GW memory. Finally, the upper limits as a function of burst epoch continue to improve at later epochs. This improvement is attributable to the continued growth of the pulsar timing array., Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures

This paper presents rigorous tests of pulsar timing array methods and software, examining their consistency across a wide range of injected parameters and signal strength. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms \texttt{Enterprise} and \texttt{PTMCMCSampler} are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster when the white noise parameters remain fixed. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis software. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, injection recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the cross-correlation-based optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current and future analyses of PTA data., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals., Comment: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background., Comment: 90 pages, 74 figures, 6 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We perform a detailed comparison of the dynamics of cosmic string loops obtained in cosmological field theory simulations with their expected motion according to the Nambu-Goto action. We demonstrate that these loops follow the trajectories predicted within the NG effective theory except in regions of high curvature where energy is emitted from the loop in the form of massive radiation. This energy loss continues for all the loops studied in this simulation until they self-intersect or become small enough that they annihilate and disappear well before they complete a single oscillation. We comment on the relevance of this investigation to the interpretation of the results from cosmological field theory simulations as well as their extrapolation to a cosmological context., Comment: 17 pages + appendix, 8 figures. Published version

Pulsar timing array collaborations, such as the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav), are seeking to detect nanohertz gravitational waves emitted by supermassive black hole binaries formed in the aftermath of galaxy mergers. We have searched for continuous waves from individual circular supermassive black hole binaries using the NANOGrav's recent 12.5-year data set. We created new methods to accurately model the uncertainties on pulsar distances in our analysis, and we implemented new techniques to account for a common red noise process in pulsar timing array data sets while searching for deterministic gravitational wave signals, including continuous waves. As we found no evidence for continuous waves in our data, we placed 95\% upper limits on the strain amplitude of continuous waves emitted by these sources. At our most sensitive frequency of 7.65 nanohertz, we placed a sky-averaged limit of $h_0 < $ $(6.82 \pm 0.35) \times 10^{-15}$, and $h_0 <$ $(2.66 \pm 0.15) \times 10^{-15}$ in our most sensitive sky location. Finally, we placed a multi-messenger limit of $\mathcal{M} <$ $(1.41 \pm 0.02) \times 10^9 M_\odot$ on the chirp mass of the supermassive black hole binary candidate 3C~66B., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures. Accepted by ApJL

We search NANOGrav's 12.5-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) with all the spatial correlations allowed by general metric theories of gravity. We find no substantial evidence in favor of the existence of such correlations in our data. We find that scalar-transverse (ST) correlations yield signal-to-noise ratios and Bayes factors that are higher than quadrupolar (tensor transverse, TT) correlations. Specifically, we find ST correlations with a signal-to-noise ratio of 2.8 that are preferred over TT correlations (Hellings and Downs correlations) with Bayesian odds of about 20:1. However, the significance of ST correlations is reduced dramatically when we include modeling of the Solar System ephemeris systematics and/or remove pulsar J0030$+$0451 entirely from consideration. Even taking the nominal signal-to-noise ratios at face value, analyses of simulated data sets show that such values are not extremely unlikely to be observed in cases where only the usual TT modes are present in the GWB. In the absence of a detection of any polarization mode of gravity, we place upper limits on their amplitudes for a spectral index of $\gamma = 5$ and a reference frequency of $f_\text{yr} = 1 \text{yr}^{-1}$. Among the upper limits for eight general families of metric theories of gravity, we find the values of $A^{95\%}_{TT} = (9.7 \pm 0.4)\times 10^{-16}$ and $A^{95\%}_{ST} = (1.4 \pm 0.03)\times 10^{-15}$ for the family of metric spacetime theories that contain both TT and ST modes., Comment: 24 pages, 18 figures, 3 appendices. Please send any comments/questions to Nima Laal (laaln@oregonstate.edu)

Eternal inflation, the idea that there is always a part of the universe that is expanding exponentially, is a frequent feature of inflationary models. It has been argued that eternal inflation requires the violation of energy conditions, creating doubts for the validity of such models. We show that eternal inflation is possible without any energy condition violation, highlighting the important role of decoherence and the selection of states in the inflationary process., Comment: Essay written for the Gravity Research Foundation 2021 Awards for Essays on Gravitation, 5 pages, 2 figures

Eternally inflating universes lead to an infinite number of Boltzmann brains but also an infinite number of ordinary observers. If we use the scale factor measure to regularize these infinities, the ordinary observers dominate the Boltzmann brains if the vacuum decay rate of each vacuum is larger than its Boltzmann brain nucleation rate. Here we point out that nucleation of small black holes should be counted in the vacuum decay rate, and this rate is always larger than the Boltzmann brain rate, if the minimum Boltzmann brain mass is more than the Planck mass. We also discuss nucleation of small, rapidly inflating regions, which may also have a higher rate than Boltzmann brains. This process also affects the distribution of the different vacua in eternal inflation., Comment: 14 pages

We compare the spectrum of the stochastic gravitational wave background produced in several models of cosmic strings with the common-spectrum process recently reported by NANOGrav. We discuss theoretical uncertainties in computing such a background, and show that despite such uncertainties, cosmic strings remain a good explanation for the potential signal, but the consequences for cosmic string parameters depend on the model. Superstrings could also explain the signal, but only in a restricted parameter space where their network behavior is effectively identical to that of ordinary cosmic strings., Comment: 15 pages, RevTex

Recent work by Jenkins and Sakellariadou claims that cusps on cosmic strings lead to black hole production. To derive this conclusion they use the hoop conjecture in the rest frame of the string loop, rather than in the rest frame of the proposed black hole. Most of the energy they include is the bulk motion of the string near the cusp. We redo the analysis taking this into account and find that cusps on cosmic strings with realistic energy scale do not produce black holes, unless the cusp parameters are extremely fine-tuned., Comment: 5 pages, revtex

Eternal inflation requires upward fluctuations of the energy in a Hubble volume, which appear to violate the energy conditions. In particular, a scalar field in an inflating spacetime should obey the averaged null energy condition, which seems to rule out eternal inflation. Here we show how eternal inflation is possible when energy conditions (even the null energy condition) are obeyed. The critical point is that energy conditions restrict the evolution of any single quantum state, while the process of eternal inflation involves repeatedly selecting a subsector of the previous state, so there is no single state where the conditions are violated., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures

We determine the distribution of cosmic string loops directly from simulations, rather than determining the loop production function and inferring the loop distribution from that. For a wide range of loop lengths, the results agree well with a power law exponent -2.5 in the radiation era and -2 in the matter era, the universal result for any loop production function that does not diverge at small scales. Our results extend those of Ringeval, Sakellariadou, and Bouchet: we are able to run for 15 times longer in conformal time and simulate a volume 300-2400 times larger. At the times they reached, our simulation is in general agreement with the more negative exponents they found, -2.6 and -2.4. However, our simulations show that this was a transient regime; at later times the exponents decline to the values above. This provides further evidence against models with a rapid divergence of the loop density at small scales, such as ``model 3'' used to analyze LIGO data and predict LISA sensitivity., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures

To understand the properties of a possible cosmic string network requires knowledge of the structures on long strings, which control the breaking off of smaller loops. These structures are influenced by backreaction due to gravitational wave emission. To gain an understanding of this process, we calculate the effect of gravitational backreaction on the "helical breather": an infinite cosmic string with a helical standing wave. We do the calculation analytically to first order in the amplitude of the oscillation. Our results for the rate of loss of length agree with the total power emitted from this system as calculated by Sakellariadou. We also find a rotation of the generators of the string that leads to an advancement of the phase of the oscillation in addition to that produced by the loss of length., Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, edited for comma, edited introduction

A network of cosmic strings would lead to gravitational waves which may be detected by pulsar timing or future interferometers. The details of the gravitational wave signal depend on the distribution of cosmic string loops, which are produced by intercommutations from the scaling network of long strings. We analyze the limits imposed by energy conservation, i.e., by the fact that the total amount of string flowing into loops cannot exceed the amount leaving the long strings. We show that some recent suggestions for the cosmic string loop production rate and distribution are ruled out by these limits. As a result, gravitational waves based on such suggestions, in particular "model 3" used in LIGO data analysis, are not to be expected., Comment: 11 pages. v2: new appendix on range of beta, clarifications

We present the results of computational gravitational backreaction on simple models of cosmic string loops. These results give us insight into the general behavior of cusps and kinks on loops, in addition to other features of evolution. Kinks are rounded off via an asymmetric and divergent correction to the string direction. The result is that cusps emerge in the place of kinks but the resulting smooth string section has a small amount of energy. Existing cusps persist, but quickly lose strength as backreaction removes energy from the string surrounding the cusp. Both kinks and cusps have their location in space shifted slightly with each oscillation., Comment: 29 pages, 17 figures

We find the leading-order effect of gravitational back-reaction on cosmic strings for points near kinks and cusps. Near a kink, the effect diverges as the inverse cube root of the distance to the kink, and acts in a direction transverse to the worldsheet. Over time the kink is rounded off, but only regions fairly close to the kink are significantly affected. Near cusps, the effect diverges inverse linearly with the distance to the cusp, and acts against the direction of the cusp motion. This results in a fractional loss of string energy that diverges logarithmically with the distance of closest approach to the cusp., Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures

We do a complete calculation of the stochastic gravitational wave background to be expected from cosmic strings. We start from a population of string loops taken from simulations, smooth these by Lorentzian convolution as a model of gravitational back reaction, calculate the average spectrum of gravitational waves emitted by the string population at any given time, and propagate it through a standard model cosmology to find the stochastic background today. We take into account all known effects, including changes in the number of cosmological relativistic degrees of freedom at early times and the possibility that some energy is in rare bursts that we might never have observed., Comment: 28 pages

We combine new analysis of the stochastic gravitational wave background to be expected from cosmic strings with the latest pulsar timing array (PTA) limits to give an upper bound on the energy scale of the possible cosmic string network, $G\mu < 1.5\times 10^{-11}$ at the 95% confidence level. We also show bounds from LIGO and to be expected from LISA and BBO. Current estimates for the gravitational wave background from supermassive black hole binaries are at the level where a PTA detection is expected. But if PTAs do observe a background soon, it will be difficult in the short term to distinguish black holes from cosmic strings as the source, because the spectral indices from the two sources happen to be quite similar. If PTAs do not observe a background, then the limits on $G\mu$ will improve somewhat, but a string network with $G\mu$ substantially below $10^{-11}$ will produce gravitational waves primarily at frequencies too high for PTA observation, so significant further progress will depend on intermediate-frequency observatories such as LISA, DECIGO and BBO., Comment: 9 pages, updated link to companion paper

Quantum mechanics makes the otherwise stable vacua of a theory metastable through the nucleation of bubbles of the new vacuum. This in turn causes a first order phase transition. These cosmological phase transitions may have played an important role in settling our universe into its current vacuum, and they may also happen in future. The most important frameworks where vacuum decay happens contain a large number of fields. Unfortunately, calculating the tunneling rates in these models is very time-consuming. In this paper we present a simple approximation for the tunneling rate by reducing it to a one-field problem which is easy to calculate. We demonstrate the validity of this approximation using our recent code "Anybubble" for several classes of potentials., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures. v2: Replace right hand panel of figure 4 with a potential of the right form

General methods of solving equations deal with solving N equations in N variables and the solutions are usually a set of discrete values. However, for problems with a softly broken symmetry these methods often first find a point which would be a solution if the symmetry were exact, and is thus an approximate solution. After this, the solver needs to move in the direction of the symmetry to find the actual solution, but that can be very difficult if this direction is not a straight line in the space of variables. The solution can often be found much more quickly by adding the generators of the softly broken symmetry as auxiliary variables. This makes the number of variables more than the equations and hence there will be a family of solutions, any one of which would be acceptable. In this paper we present a procedure for finding solutions in this case, and apply it to several simple examples and an important problem in the physics of false vacuum decay. We also provide a Mathematica package that implements Powell's hybrid method with the generalization to allow more variables than equations., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

Finding numerical solutions describing bubble nucleation is notoriously difficult in more than one field space dimension. Traditional shooting methods fail because of the extreme non-linearity of field evolution over a macroscopic distance as a function of initial conditions. Minimization methods tend to become either slow or imprecise for larger numbers of fields due to their dependence on the high dimensionality of discretized function spaces. We present a new method for finding solutions which is both very efficient and able to cope with the non-linearities. Our method directly integrates the equations of motion except at a small number of junction points, so we do not need to introduce a discrete domain for our functions. The method, based on multiple shooting, typically finds solutions involving three fields in under a minute, and can find solutions for eight fields in about an hour. We include a numerical package for Mathematica which implements the method described here., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, few typos fixed, improved method for calculation of action included. More detailed comparison with other techniques is included

We calculate the metric and affine connection due to a piecewise linear cosmic string loop, and the effect of gravitational back reaction for the Garfinkle-Vachaspati loop with four straight segments. As expected, back reaction reduces the size of the loop, in accord with the energy going into gravitational waves. The "square" (maximally symmetric) loop evaporates without changing shape, but for all other loops in this class, the kinks become less sharp and segments between kinks become curved. If the loop is close to the square case, it will evaporate before its kinks are significantly changed, if it is far from square, the opening out of the kinks is much faster than evaporation of the loop., Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, updated to version accepted to PRD

We analyze the effect of gravitational back reaction on cosmic string loops with kinks, which is an important determinant of the shape, and thus the potential observability, of string loops which may exist in the universe today. Kinks are not rounded off, but may be straightened out. This means that back reaction will only cause loops with kinks to develop cusps after some potentially large fraction of their lifetimes. In some loops, symmetries prevent even this process, so that the loop evaporates in a self-similar fashion and the kinks are unchanged. As an example, we discuss back-reaction on the rectangular Garfinkle-Vachaspati loop., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures; updated to version accepted in PRL. Please see ancillary files for erratum

We analyze the shapes of cosmic string loops found in large-scale simulations of an expanding-universe string network. The simulation does not include gravitational back reaction, but we model that process by smoothing the loop using Lorentzian convolution. We find that loops at formation consist of generally straight segments separated by kinks. We do not see cusps or any cusp-like structure at the scale of the entire loop, although we do see very small regions of string that move with large Lorentz boosts. However, smoothing of the string almost always introduces two cusps on each loop. The smoothing process does not lead to any significant fragmentation of loops that were in non-self-intersecting trajectories before smoothing., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures

Quantum inequalities are constraints on how negative the weighted average of the renormalized stress-energy tensor of a quantum field can be. A null-projected quantum inequality can be used to prove the averaged null energy condition (ANEC), which would then rule out exotic phenomena such as wormholes and time machines. In this work we derive such an inequality for a massless minimally coupled scalar field, working to first order of the Riemann tensor and its derivatives. We then use this inequality to prove ANEC on achronal geodesics in a curved background that obeys the null convergence condition., Comment: 29 pages, 1 figure, references added

Quantum inequalities bound the extent to which weighted time averages of the renormalized energy density of a quantum field can be negative. They have mostly been proved in flat spacetime, but we need curved-spacetime inequalities to disprove the existence of exotic phenomena, such as closed timelike curves. In this work we derive such an inequality for a minimally-coupled scalar field on a geodesic in a spacetime with small curvature, working to first order in the Ricci tensor and its derivatives. Since only the Ricci tensor enters, there are no first-order corrections to the flat-space quantum inequalities on paths which do not encounter any matter or energy., Comment: 21 pages

Charge carriers moving at the speed of light along a straight, superconducting cosmic string carry with them a logarithmically divergent slab of electromagnetic field energy. Thus no finite local input can induce a current that travels unimpeded to infinity. Rather, electromagnetic back-reaction must damp this current asymptotically to nothing. We compute this back-reaction and find that the electromagnetic fields and currents decline exactly as rapidly as necessary to prevent a divergence. We briefly discuss the corresponding gravitational situation., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures; corrected Eq. (41), clarified language after referee feedback

Quantum inequalities are bounds on negative time-averages of the energy density of a quantum field. They can be used to rule out exotic spacetimes in general relativity. We study quantum inequalities for a scalar field with a background potential (i.e., a mass that varies with spacetime position) in Minkowski space. We treat the potential as a perturbation and explicitly calculate the first-order correction to a quantum inequality with an arbitrary sampling function, using general results of Fewster and Smith. For an arbitrary potential, we give bounds on the correction in terms of the maximum values of the potential and its first three derivatives. The techniques we develop here will also be applicable to quantum inequalities in general spacetimes with small curvature, which are necessary to rule out exotic phenomena., Comment: 20 pages

Using recent simulation results, we provide the mass and speed spectrum of cosmic string loops. This is the quantity of primary interest for many phenomenological signatures of cosmic strings, and it can be accurately predicted using recently acquired detailed knowledge of the loop production function. We emphasize that gravitational smoothing of long strings does not play any role in determining the total number of existing loops. We derive a bound on the string tension imposed by recent constraints on the stochastic gravitational wave background from pulsar timing arrays, finding $G\mu \leq 2.8\times 10^{-9}$. We also provide a derivation of the Boltzmann equation for cosmic string loops in the language of differential forms., Comment: 34 pages, 15 figures

Core-collapse supernovae emit on the order of 3x10^53 ergs in high-energy neutrinos over a time of order 10 seconds, and so decrease their mass by about 0.2 solar mass. If the explosion is nearly spherically symmetric, there will be little gravitational wave emission. Nevertheless, the sudden decrease of mass of the progenitor may cause a change in the gravitational time delay of signals from a nearby pulsar. We calculate the change in arrival times as successive pulses pass through the neutrino shell at different times, and find that the effect may be detectable in ideal circumstances., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures. v2: correct author list in arxiv

Anthropic reasoning is a critical tool to understand probabilities, especially in a large universe or multiverse. According to anthropic reasoning, we should consider ourselves typical among members of a reference class that must include all subjectively indistinguishable observers. We discuss here whether such a reference class, which we assume must include computer simulations, must also include computers that replay previous simulations, magnetic tapes that store but do not "run" the simulation, and even abstract mathematical functions. We do not see any clear criterion for excluding these anomalous observers, but their presence is deeply troubling to the idea of anthropic reasoning., Comment: 9 pages

Given a sufficiently large universe, numerous civilizations almost surely exist. Some of these civilizations will be short-lived and die out relatively early in their development, i.e., before having the chance to spread to other planets. Others will be long-lived, potentially colonizing their galaxy and becoming enormous in size. What fraction of civilizations in the universe are long-lived? The "universal doomsday" argument states that long-lived civilizations must be rare because if they were not, we should find ourselves living in one. Furthermore, because long-lived civilizations are rare, our civilization's prospects for long-term survival are poor. Here, we develop the formalism required for universal doomsday calculations and show that while the argument has some force, our future is not as gloomy as the traditional doomsday argument would suggest, at least when the number of early existential threats is small., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures

The Averaged Null Energy Condition (ANEC) states that the integral along a complete null geodesic of the projection of the stress-energy tensor onto the tangent vector to the geodesic cannot be negative. Exotic spacetimes, such as those allow wormholes or the construction of time machines are possible in general relativity only if ANEC is violated along achronal geodesics. Starting from a conjecture that flat-space quantum inequalities apply with small corrections in spacetimes with small curvature, we prove that ANEC is obeyed by a minimally-coupled, free quantum scalar field on any achronal null geodesic surrounded by a tubular neighborhood whose curvature is produced by a classical source.

We generalize the concept of Fermi normal coordinates adapted to a geodesic to the case where the tangent space to the manifold at the base point is decomposed into a direct product of an arbitrary number of subspaces, so that we follow several geodesics in turn to find the point with given coordinates. We compute the connection and the metric as integrals of the Riemann tensor. In the case of one subspace (Riemann normal coordinates) or two subspaces, we recover some results previously found by Nesterov, using somewhat different techniques., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures

An eternally inflating universe produces an infinite amount of spatial volume, so every possible event happens an infinite number of times, and it is impossible to define probabilities in terms of frequencies. This problem is usually addressed by means of a measure, which regulates the infinities and produces meaningful predictions. I argue that any measure should obey certain general axioms, but then give a simple toy model in which one can prove that no measure obeying the axioms exists. In certain cases of eternal inflation there are measures that obey the axioms, but all such measures appear to be unacceptable for other reasons. Thus the problem of defining sensible probabilities in eternal inflation seems not be solved., Comment: 10 pages, no figures, RevTeX. Ver. 2: simplification: only two axioms and two "colors" of observer

Using a new parallel computing technique, we have run the largest cosmic string simulations ever performed. Our results confirm the existence of a long transient period where a non-scaling distribution of small loops is produced at lengths depending on the initial correlation scale. As time passes, this initial population gives way to the true scaling regime, where loops of size approximately equal to one-twentieth the horizon distance become a significant component. We observe similar behavior in matter and radiation eras, as well as in flat space. In the matter era, the scaling population of large loops becomes the dominant component; we expect this to eventually happen in the other eras as well., Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables. V2: combine 3 figures, add 1 table, better discussion + citation of prev. work

We develop a "semi-parallel" simulation technique suggested by Pretorius and Lehner, in which the simulation spacetime volume is divided into a large number of small 4-volumes which have only initial and final surfaces. Thus there is no two-way communication between processors, and the 4-volumes can be simulated independently without the use of MPI. This technique allows us to simulate much larger volumes than we otherwise could, because we are not limited by total memory size. No processor time is lost waiting for other processors. We compare a cosmic string simulation we developed using the semi-parallel technique with our previous MPI-based code for several test cases and find a factor of 2.6 improvement in the total amount of processor time required to accomplish the same job for strings evolving in the matter-dominated era., Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables

"Boltzmann brains" are human brains that arise as thermal or quantum fluctuations and last at least long enough to think a few thoughts. In many scenarios involving universes of infinite size or duration, Boltzmann brains are infinitely more common than human beings who arise in the ordinary way. Thus we should expect to be Boltzmann brains, in contradiction to observation. We discuss here the question of whether Boltzmann brains can arise as quantum fluctuations in the vacuum. Such Boltzmann brains pose an even worse problem than those arising as fluctuations in the thermal state of an exponentially expanding universe. We give several arguments for and against inclusion of vacuum Boltzmann brains in the anthropic reference class, but find neither choice entirely satisfactory., Comment: 8 pages