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Abstract Background The prevalence of autism in Denmark has been increasing, reaching 1.65% among 10-year-old children, and similar trends are seen elsewhere. Although there are several factors associated with autism, including genetic, environmental, and prenatal factors, the molecular etiology of autism is largely unknown. Here, we use untargeted metabolomics to characterize the neonatal metabolome from dried blood spots collected shortly after birth. Methods We analyze the metabolomic profiles of a subset of a large Danish population-based cohort (iPSYCH2015) consisting of over 1400 newborns, who later are diagnosed with autism and matching controls and in two Swedish population-based cohorts comprising over 7000 adult participants. Mass spectrometry analysis was performed by a timsTOF Pro operated in QTOF mode, using data-dependent acquisition. By applying an untargeted metabolomics approach, we could reproducibly measure over 800 metabolite features. Results We detected underlying molecular perturbations across several metabolite classes that precede autism. In particular, the cyclic dipeptide cyclo-leucine-proline (FDR-adjusted p = 0.003) and the carnitine-related 5-aminovaleric acid betaine (5-AVAB) (FDR-adjusted p = 0.03), were associated with an increased probability for autism, independently of known prenatal and genetic risk factors. Analysis of genetic and dietary data in adults revealed that 5-AVAB was associated with increased habitual dietary intake of dairy (FDR-adjusted p

Abstract Background Although several cardiovascular, demographic, genetic and lifestyle factors have been associated with cognitive function, little is known about what type of cognitive impairment they are associated with. The aim was to examine the associations between different risk factors and future memory and attention/executive functions, and their interaction with APOE genotype. Methods Participants from a large, prospective, population-based, Swedish study were included (n = 3,229). Linear regression models were used to examine baseline hypertension, body mass index (BMI), long-term glucose levels (HbA1c), different lipid levels, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking, education, APOE genotype, age and sex. All models were adjusted for follow-up time and basic demographics, and, in a second step, all significant predictors were included to examine independent effects. Follow-up outcomes were memory and attention/executive functions. Results The mean age at baseline was 56.1 (SD 5.7) years and 59.7% were women. The mean follow-up time was 17.4 (range 14.3–20.8) years. When examining independent effects, APOE ε4 genotype(p

Abstract The receptor for advanced glycation endproducts (RAGE) has pro-inflammatory and pro-atherogenic effects. Low plasma levels of soluble RAGE (sRAGE), a decoy receptor for RAGE ligands, have been associated with increased risk for major adverse coronary events (MACE) in the general population. We performed a genome-wide association study to identify genetic determinants of plasma sRAGE in 4338 individuals from the cardiovascular arm of the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDC-CV). Further, we explored the associations between these genetic variants, incident first-time MACE and mortality in 24,640 unrelated individuals of European ancestry from the MDC cohort. The minor alleles of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs): rs2070600, rs204993, rs116653040, and rs7306778 were independently associated with lower plasma sRAGE. The minor T (vs. C) allele of rs2070600 was associated with increased risk for MACE [HR 1.13 95% CI (1.02–1.25), P = 0.016]. Neither SNP was associated with mortality. This is the largest study to demonstrate a link between a genetic sRAGE determinant and CV risk. Only rs2070600, which enhances RAGE function by inducing a Gly82Ser polymorphism in the ligand-binding domain, was associated with MACE. The lack of associations with incident MACE for the other sRAGE-lowering SNPs suggests that this functional RAGE modification is central for the observed relationship.

Abstract Background The molecular pathways linking short and long sleep duration with incident diabetes mellitus (iDM) and incident coronary heart disease (iCHD) are not known. We aimed to identify circulating protein patterns associated with sleep duration and test their impact on incident cardiometabolic disease. Methods We assessed sleep duration and measured 78 plasma proteins among 3336 participants aged 46–68 years, free from DM and CHD at baseline, and identified cases of iDM and iCHD using national registers. Incident events occurring in the first 3 years of follow-up were excluded from analyses. Tenfold cross-fit partialing-out lasso logistic regression adjusted for age and sex was used to identify proteins that significantly predicted sleep duration quintiles when compared with the referent quintile 3 (Q3). Predictive proteins were weighted and combined into proteomic scores (PS) for sleep duration Q1, Q2, Q4, and Q5. Combinations of PS were included in a linear regression model to identify the best predictors of habitual sleep duration. Cox proportional hazards regression models with sleep duration quintiles and sleep-predictive PS as the main exposures were related to iDM and iCHD after adjustment for known covariates. Results Sixteen unique proteomic markers, predominantly reflecting inflammation and apoptosis, predicted sleep duration quintiles. The combination of PSQ1 and PSQ5 best predicted sleep duration. Mean follow-up times for iDM (n = 522) and iCHD (n = 411) were 21.8 and 22.4 years, respectively. Compared with sleep duration Q3, all sleep duration quintiles were positively and significantly associated with iDM. Only sleep duration Q1 was positively and significantly associated with iCHD. Inclusion of PSQ1 and PSQ5 abrogated the association between sleep duration Q1 and iDM. Moreover, PSQ1 was significantly associated with iDM (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.06–1.53). PSQ1 and PSQ5 were not associated with iCHD and did not markedly attenuate the association between sleep duration Q1 with iCHD. Conclusions We here identify plasma proteomic fingerprints of sleep duration and suggest that PSQ1 could explain the association between very short sleep duration and incident DM.

Abstract Background In the European Union alone, more than 100 million people present to the emergency department (ED) each year, and this has increased steadily year-on-year by 2–3%. Better patient management decisions have the potential to reduce ED crowding, the number of diagnostic tests, the use of inpatient beds, and healthcare costs. Methods We have established the Skåne Emergency Medicine (SEM) cohort for developing clinical decision support systems (CDSS) based on artificial intelligence or machine learning as well as traditional statistical methods. The SEM cohort consists of 325 539 unselected unique patients with 630 275 visits from January 1st, 2017 to December 31st, 2018 at eight EDs in the region Skåne in southern Sweden. Data on sociodemographics, previous diseases and current medication are available for each ED patient visit, as well as their chief complaint, test results, disposition and the outcome in the form of subsequent diagnoses, treatments, healthcare costs and mortality within a follow-up period of at least 30 days, and up to 3 years. Discussion The SEM cohort provides a platform for CDSS research, and we welcome collaboration. In addition, SEM’s large amount of real-world patient data with almost complete short-term follow-up will allow research in epidemiology, patient management, diagnostics, prognostics, ED crowding, resource allocation, and social medicine.

Abstract Plasma metabolomics holds potential for precision medicine, but limited information is available to compare the performance of such methods across multiple cohorts. We compared plasma metabolite profiles after an overnight fast in 11,309 participants of five population-based Swedish cohorts (50–80 years, 52% women). Metabolite profiles were uniformly generated at a core laboratory (Metabolon Inc.) with untargeted liquid chromatography mass spectrometry and a comprehensive reference library. Analysis of a second sample obtained one year later was conducted in a subset. Of 1629 detected metabolites, 1074 (66%) were detected in all cohorts while only 10% were unique to one cohort, most of which were xenobiotics or uncharacterized. The major classes were lipids (28%), xenobiotics (22%), amino acids (14%), and uncharacterized (19%). The most abundant plasma metabolome components were the major dietary fatty acids and amino acids, glucose, lactate and creatinine. Most metabolites displayed a log-normal distribution. Temporal variability was generally similar to clinical chemistry analytes but more pronounced for xenobiotics. Extensive metabolite-metabolite correlations were observed but mainly restricted to within each class. Metabolites were broadly associated with clinical factors, particularly body mass index, sex and renal function. Collectively, our findings inform the conduct and interpretation of metabolite association and precision medicine studies.

Abstract Vasopressin is a pleiotropic hormone that controls body fluid homeostasis. Vasopressin has also been proposed to be involved in erythropoiesis, thrombocyte activity and inflammation. However, whether increasing vasopressin is associated with changes in hematopoietic markers is not known. To evaluate this gap of knowledge we measured the vasopressin marker copeptin and markers of erythropoiesis (erythrocyte count, hemoglobin (Hb), red blood cell distribution width (RDW), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), erythrocyte volume fraction (EVF)), leukocyte count (total count, lymphocytes, neutrophils) and thrombocyte count in 5312 participants from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS). The associations between increasing copeptin tertile and the hematopoietic markers were analyzed in multivariate linear regression analyses. We found that increasing copeptin tertile was significantly (p

Purpose The Obesity and Disease Development Sweden (ODDS) study was designed to create a large cohort to study body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and changes in weight and WC, in relation to morbidity and mortality.Participants ODDS includes 4 295 859 individuals, 2 165 048 men and 2 130 811 women, in Swedish cohorts and national registers with information on weight assessed once (2 555 098 individuals) or more (1 740 761 individuals), in total constituting 7 733 901 weight assessments at the age of 17–103 years in 1963–2020 (recalled weight as of 1911). Information on WC is available in 152 089 men and 212 658 women, out of whom 108 795 have repeated information on WC (in total 512 273 assessments). Information on morbidity and mortality was retrieved from national registers, with follow-up until the end of 2019–2021, varying between the registers.Findings to date Among all weight assessments (of which 85% are objectively measured), the median year, age and BMI (IQR) is 1985 (1977–1994) in men and 2001 (1991–2010) in women, age 19 (18–40) years in men and 30 (26–36) years in women and BMI 22.9 (20.9–25.4) kg/m2 in men and 23.2 (21.2–26.1) kg/m2 in women. Normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m2) is present in 67% of assessments in men and 64% in women and obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m2) in 5% of assessments in men and 10% in women. The median (IQR) follow-up time from the first objectively measured or self-reported current weight assessment until emigration, death or end of follow-up is 31.4 (21.8–40.8) years in men and 19.6 (9.3–29.0) years in women. During follow-up, 283 244 men and 123 457 women died.Future plans The large sample size and long follow-up of the ODDS Study will provide robust results on anthropometric measures in relation to risk of common diseases and causes of deaths, and novel findings in subgroups and rarer outcomes.

Background Increased aortic stiffness (arteriosclerosis) is associated with early vascular aging independent of age and sex. The underlying mechanisms of early vascular aging remain largely unexplored in the general population. We aimed to investigate the plasma metabolomic profile in aortic stiffness (vascular aging) and associated risk of incident cardiovascular disease and mortality. Methods and Results We included 6865 individuals from 2 Swedish population‐based cohorts. Untargeted plasma metabolomics was performed by liquid‐chromatography mass spectrometry. Aortic stiffness was assessed directly by carotid‐femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) and indirectly by augmentation index (AIx@75). A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was created on plasma metabolites in order to predict aortic stiffness. Associations between metabolite‐predicted aortic stiffness and risk of new‐onset cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular mortality, and all‐cause mortality were calculated. Metabolite‐predicted aortic stiffness (PWV and AIx@75) was positively associated particularly with acylcarnitines, dimethylguanidino valeric acid, glutamate, and cystine. The plasma metabolome predicted aortic stiffness (PWV and AIx@75) with good accuracy (R2=0.27 and R2=0.39, respectively). Metabolite‐predicted aortic stiffness (PWV and AIx@75) was significantly correlated with age, sex, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and low‐density lipoprotein. After 23 years of follow‐up, metabolite‐predicted aortic stiffness (PWV and AIx@75) was significantly associated with increased risk of new‐onset coronary artery disease, cardiovascular mortality, and all‐cause mortality. Conclusions Aortic stiffness is associated particularly with altered metabolism of acylcarnitines, cystine, and dimethylguanidino valeric acid. These metabolic disturbances predict increased risk of new‐onset coronary artery disease, cardiovascular mortality, and all‐cause mortality after more than 23 years of follow‐up in the general population.

Abstract Iraqi born immigrants in Sweden have higher prevalence of metabolic diseases compared to native Swedes. Copeptin, a marker for vasopressin, is associated with increased risk of metabolic disease. In this cross-sectional population study based on the MEDIM cohort we investigated differences in copeptin levels between Iraqi and Swedish born individuals and if the association between copeptin and cardiometabolic risk markers differed by region of origin. We included 1109 Iraqi and 613 Swedish born participants (58% men, mean age 47 years). The Swedish participants had a higher concentration of copeptin compared to the Iraqi born group after age and sex adjustment (p

Abstract Anterior Uveitis (AU) is the inflammation of the anterior part of the eye, the iris and ciliary body and is strongly associated with HLA-B*27. We report AU exome sequencing results from eight independent cohorts consisting of 3,850 cases and 916,549 controls. We identify common genome-wide significant loci in HLA-B (OR = 3.37, p = 1.03e-196) and ERAP1 (OR = 0.86, p = 1.1e-08), and find IPMK (OR = 9.4, p = 4.42e-09) and IDO2 (OR = 3.61, p = 6.16e-08) as genome-wide significant genes based on the burden of rare coding variants. Dividing the cohort into HLA-B*27 positive and negative individuals, we find ERAP1 haplotype is strongly protective only for B*27-positive AU (OR = 0.73, p = 5.2e-10). Investigation of B*27-negative AU identifies a common signal near HLA-DPB1 (rs3117230, OR = 1.26, p = 2.7e-08), risk genes IPMK and IDO2, and several additional candidate risk genes, including ADGFR5, STXBP2, and ACHE. Taken together, we decipher the genetics underlying B*27-positive and -negative AU and identify rare and common genetic signals for both subtypes of disease.

Summary: Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a “hallmark” of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. Findings: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20–1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53–0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88–0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48–4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. Interpretation: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. Funding: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

The aim of this study was to explore the longitudinal association between reported baseline water intake and incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort (n = 25,369). Using cox proportional hazards models, we separately modelled the effect of plain and total (all water, including from food) water on CAD and type 2 diabetes risk, whilst adjusting for age, sex, diet collection method, season, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, education level, energy intake, energy misreporting, body mass index, hypertension, lipid lowering medication, apolipoprotein A, apolipoprotein B, and dietary variables. Sensitivity analyses were run to assess validity. After adjustment, no association was found between tertiles of plain or total water intake and type 2 diabetes risk. For CAD, no association was found comparing moderate to low intake tertiles from plain or total water, however, risk of CAD increased by 12% (95% CI 1.03, 1.21) when comparing high to low intake tertiles of plain water, and by 17% (95% CI 1.07, 1.27) for high versus low tertiles of total water. Sensitivity analyses were largely in agreement. Overall, baseline water intake was not associated with future type 2 diabetes risk, whilst CAD risk was higher with higher water intakes. Our findings are discordant with prevailing literature suggesting higher water intakes should reduce cardiometabolic risk. These findings may be an artefact of limitations within the study, but future research is needed to understand if there is a causal underpinning.

AbstractBackground There is an unmet clinical need for novel therapies addressing the residual risk in patients receiving guideline preventive therapy for coronary heart disease. Experimental studies have identified a pro-atherogenic role of the oxidized LDL receptor LOX-1. We investigated the association between circulating soluble LOX-1 (sLOX-1) and the risk for development of myocardial infarction.Methods The study subjects (n = 4658) were part of the Malmö Diet and Cancer study. The baseline investigation was carried out 1991-1994 and the incidence of cardiovascular events monitored through national registers during a of 19.5 ± 4.9 years follow-up. sLOX-1 and other biomarkers were analyzed by proximity extension assay and ELISA in baseline plasma.Results Subjects in the highest tertile of sLOX-1 had an increased risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio (95% CI) 1.76 (1.40-2.21) as compared with those in the lowest tertile. The presence of cardiovascular risk factors was related to elevated sLOX-1, but the association between sLOX-1 and risk of myocardial infarction remained significant when adjusting for risk factors.Conclusions In this prospective population study we found an association between elevated sLOX-1, the presence of carotid disease and the risk for first-time myocardial infarction. Taken together with previous experimental findings of a pro-atherogenic role of LOX-1, this observation supports LOX-1 inhibition as a possible target for prevention of myocardial infarction.

Abstract Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Abstract A one-step sandwich chemiluminescence immunometric assay (LIA) was developed for the quantification of bifunctional peptidylglycine-α-amidating monooxygenase (PAM) in human plasma (PAM-LIA). PAM is responsible for the activation of more than half of known peptide hormones through C-terminal α-amidation. The assay employed antibodies targeting specific catalytic PAM-subunits, peptidylglycine alpha-hydroxylating monooxygenase (PHM) and peptidyl-alpha-hydroxyglycine alpha-amidating lyase (PAL), to ensure detection of full-length PAM. The PAM-LIA assay was calibrated with a human recombinant PAM enzyme and achieved a detection limit of 189 pg/mL and a quantification limit of 250 pg/mL. The assay demonstrated good inter-assay (6.7%) and intra-assay (2.2%) variabilities. It exhibited linearity when accessed by gradual dilution or random mixing of plasma samples. The accuracy of the PAM-LIA was determined to be 94.7% through spiking recovery experiments, and the signal recovery after substance interference was 94–96%. The analyte showed 96% stability after six freeze–thaw cycles. The assay showed strong correlation with matched EDTA and serum samples, as well as matched EDTA and Li-Heparin samples. Additionally, a high correlation was observed between α-amidating activity and PAM-LIA. Finally, the PAM-LIA assay was successfully applied to a sub-cohort of a Swedish population-based study, comprising 4850 individuals, confirming its suitability for routine high throughput screening.

Abstract We identify biomarkers for disease progression in three type 2 diabetes cohorts encompassing 2,973 individuals across three molecular classes, metabolites, lipids and proteins. Homocitrulline, isoleucine and 2-aminoadipic acid, eight triacylglycerol species, and lowered sphingomyelin 42:2;2 levels are predictive of faster progression towards insulin requirement. Of ~1,300 proteins examined in two cohorts, levels of GDF15/MIC-1, IL-18Ra, CRELD1, NogoR, FAS, and ENPP7 are associated with faster progression, whilst SMAC/DIABLO, SPOCK1 and HEMK2 predict lower progression rates. In an external replication, proteins and lipids are associated with diabetes incidence and prevalence. NogoR/RTN4R injection improved glucose tolerance in high fat-fed male mice but impaired it in male db/db mice. High NogoR levels led to islet cell apoptosis, and IL-18R antagonised inflammatory IL-18 signalling towards nuclear factor kappa-B in vitro. This comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach thus identifies biomarkers with potential prognostic utility, provides evidence for possible disease mechanisms, and identifies potential therapeutic avenues to slow diabetes progression.

Summary: Background: Whereas outdoor temperature is linked to both mortality and hydration status, the hormone vasopressin, measured through the surrogate copeptin, is a marker of cardiometabolic risk and hydration. We recently showed that copeptin has a seasonal pattern with higher plasma concentration in winter. Here, we aimed to investigate the association between outdoor temperature and copeptin. Methods: Copeptin was analysed in fasting plasma from five cohorts in Malmö, Sweden (n = 26,753, 49.7% men, age 18–86 years). We utilized a multivariable adjusted non-linear spline model with four knots to investigate the association between short-term temperature (24 h mean apparent) and log copeptin z-score. Findings: We found a distinct non-linear association between temperature and log copeptin z-score, with both moderately low and high temperatures linked to higher copeptin concentration (p

Abstract Concerns have been raised regarding a potentially increased risk of cancer associated with treatment with glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists. Here, we explored whether fasting and oral glucose tolerance test post-challenge glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and GLP-1 levels were associated with incident first cancer. Within the cardiovascular re-examination arm of the population-based Malmö Diet Cancer study (n = 3734), 685 participants with a previous cancer diagnosis were excluded, resulting in 3049 participants (mean age 72.2 ± 5.6 years, 59.5% women), of whom 485 were diagnosed with incident first cancer (median follow-up time 9.9 years). Multivariable Cox-regression and competing risk regression (death as competing risk) were used to explore associations between incretin levels and incident first cancer. Higher levels of fasting GLP-1 (462 incident first cancer cases/2417 controls) showed lower risk of incident first cancer in competing risk regression (sub-hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.82–0.99; p = 0.022). No association was seen for fasting GIP, post-challenge GIP, or post-challenge GLP-1 and incident first cancer. In this prospective study, none of the fasting and post-challenge levels of GIP and GLP-1 were associated with higher risk of incident first cancer; by contrast, higher levels of fasting GLP-1 were associated with lower risk of incident first cancer.

Abstract Aims Bioactive adrenomedullin (bio‐ADM) is a vascular‐derived peptide hormone that has emerged as a promising biomarker for assessment of congestion in decompensated heart failure (HF). We aimed to evaluate diagnostic and prognostic performance of bio‐ADM for HF in comparison to amino‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP), with decision thresholds derived from invasive haemodynamic and population‐based studies. Methods and results Normal reference ranges for bio‐ADM were derived from a community‐based cohort (n = 5060). Correlations with haemodynamic data were explored in a cohort of HF patients undergoing right heart catheterization (n = 346). Mortality and decision cutoffs for bio‐ADM was explored in a cohort of patients presenting in the ER with acute dyspnoea (n = 1534), including patients with decompensated HF (n = 570). The normal reference range was 8–39 pg/mL. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for discrimination of elevated mean right atrial pressure (mRAP) and pulmonary arterial wedge pressure (PAWP) was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.67–0.79) and 0.70 (95% CI = 0.64–0.75), respectively, with optimal bio‐ADM decision cutoff of 39 pg/mL, concordant with cubic spline analyses. NT‐proBNP discriminated PAWP slightly better than mRAP (AUROC 0.73 [95% CI = 0.68–0.79] and 0.68 [95% CI = 0.61–0.75]). Bio‐ADM correlated with (mRAP, r = 0.55) while NT‐proBNP correlated with PAWP. Finally, a bio‐ADM decision cutoff of 39 pg/mL associated with 30 and 90 day mortality and conferred a two‐fold increased odds of HF diagnosis, independently from NT‐proBNP. Conclusions Bio‐ADM tracks with mRAP and associates with measures of systemic congestion and with mortality in decompensated HF independently from NT‐proBNP. Our findings support utility of bio‐ADM as a biomarker of systemic venous congestion in HF and nominate a decision threshold.

Rare variant association data from human genetics combined with in vitro and in vivo functional validation highlight ANGPTL7 as a promising therapeutic target for intraocular pressure reduction, and protection from glaucoma.

Abstract Aims Proneurotensin (Pro-NT) is a strong predictor of cardiometabolic disease including type 2 diabetes and obesity, however, the effect of lifestyle change on Pro-NT has not been investigated in this context. Middle Eastern (ME) immigrants represent the largest and fastest growing minority population in Europe and are a high-risk population for obesity and type 2 diabetes. In this randomised controlled lifestyle intervention (RCT) addressing ME immigrants to Sweden where weight-loss was previously studied as the main outcome, as a secondary analysis we aimed to study change in Pro-NT during follow-up and if baseline Pro-NT predicted weight loss. Methods Immigrants from the Middle East at high risk for type 2 diabetes were invited to participate in this RCT adapted lifestyle intervention of four months’ duration. The intervention group (N = 48) received a culturally adapted lifestyle intervention comprising seven group sessions and a cooking class addressing healthier diet and increased physical activity. The control group (N = 44) received treatment as usual with information to improve lifestyle habits on their own. Data assessed using mixed effects regression. Outcomes Primary outcome; change in Pro-NT. Secondary outcome; change in BMI in relation to baseline plasma concentration of Pro-NT. Results During the four months follow up, weight was significantly reduced in the intervention (-2.5 kg) compared to the control group (0.8 kg) (β -0.12, 95% CI -0.24 to -0.01, P = 0.028). Pro-NT increased to a significantly greater extent in the intervention compared to the control group during follow up (28.2 vs. 3.5 pmol/L) (β 11.4; 4.8 to 18.02, P

Abstract There is substantial genetic predisposition to bladder cancer (BC). Recently, blood pressure (BP) was positively associated with BC risk in men, but the potential interaction with genetic susceptibility for BC is unknown. We investigated a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) of 18 BC genetic variants, BP, and their interaction, in relation to incident urothelial cancer (UC, n = 385) risk in 10,576 men. We used Cox regression, the likelihood ratio test, and the relative excess risk for interaction to calculate hazard ratios (HR) of UC, multiplicative interaction and additive interaction respectively. There was evidence of a positive additive interaction between SBP and the wGRS in relation to aggressive (P = 0.02) but not non-aggressive (P = 0.60) UC. The HR of aggressive UC was for SBP ≥ 140 mmHg and the upper 50% of the wGRS combined 1.72 (95% CI 1.03–2.87) compared to the counterpart group. Additionally, the 20-year risk of aggressive UC in 60 year-old men was 0.78% in the low SBP/low wGRS group and 1.33% in the high SBP/high wGRS group. Our findings support a potential additive interaction between the wGRS and SBP on aggressive UC among men. If replicated, the findings on interaction may provide biological and public health insight to prevent aggressive UC.

Fat distribution is associated with cardiometabolic disease, although it has been less well studied than overall obesity. In a multiancestry exome-sequencing study, the authors identified predicted loss-of-function mutations in INHBE associated with favorable fat distribution and protection from type 2 diabetes.

Abstract Background Obesity is strongly associated with the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the heterogenous nature of obesity in CVD-risk is still poorly understood. We aimed to explore novel CVD biomarkers and their possible association with presumed unhealthy obesity, defined as hospitalized subjects with obesity (HO). Methods Ninety-two proteins associated with CVD were analyzed in 517 (mean age 67 ± 6 years; 33.7% women) individuals with obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) from the Malmö Preventive Project cohort, using a proximity extension array technique from the Olink CVD III panel. Individuals with at least one recorded hospitalization for somatic disease prior to study baseline were defined as HO phenotypes. Associations between proteins and HO (n = 407) versus non-hospitalized subjects with obesity (NHO, n = 110), were analyzed using multivariable binary logistic regression, adjusted for traditional risk factors. Results Of 92 analyzed unadjusted associations between biomarkers and HO, increased levels of two proteins were significant at a false discovery rate

A GWAS and exome-wide association study meta-analysis identifies 53 loci affecting hearing loss risk from over half a million individuals across five cohorts. Rare variants in Mendelian hearing loss genes contribute to hearing loss risk in adults.

A large-scale GWAS provides insight on diabetes-dependent genetic effects on the glomerular filtration rate, a common metric to monitor kidney health in disease.

Background Epidemiological studies have shown that impaired lung function is common and associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Increased levels of several inflammatory and cardiovascular disease-related plasma proteins have been associated with impaired lung function. The aim was to study the association between plasma proteomics and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC ratio. Methods We used a discovery and replication approach in two community-based cohorts, EpiHealth and the Malmö Offspring Study (total n=2874), to cross-sectionally study 242 cardiovascular disease- and metabolism-linked proteins in relation to FEV1, FVC (both % predicted) and FEV1/FVC ratio. A false discovery rate of 5% was used as the significance threshold in the discovery cohort. Results Plasma fatty acid-binding protein 4, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and leptin were negatively associated with FEV1 and paraoxonase 3 was positively associated therewith. Fatty acid-binding protein 4, fibroblast growth factor 21, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, interleukin-6 and leptin were negatively associated with FVC and agouti-related protein, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 2, paraoxonase 3 and receptor for advanced glycation end products were positively associated therewith. No proteins were associated with FEV1/FVC ratio. A sensitivity analysis in EpiHealth revealed only minor changes after excluding individuals with known cardiovascular disease, diabetes or obesity. Conclusions Five proteins were associated with both FEV1 and FVC. Four proteins associated with only FVC and none with FEV1/FVC ratio, suggesting associations mainly through lung volume, not airway obstruction. However, additional studies are needed to investigate underlying mechanisms for these findings.

Background Whether sex‐specific differences exist for risk factors for pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep venous thrombosis (DVT), with the exception of pregnancy and estrogen therapy, has been sparsely studied. We aimed to study whether sex‐specific differences of risk factors exist for noncancer‐related DVT and PE in middle‐aged and older individuals without cardiovascular history or previous diagnosis in a population‐based historical (retrospective) cohort. Methods and Results Potential venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk factors were registered at baseline in 15 807 women and 9996 men aged 44 to 74 years, who participated in the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (1991–1996). We excluded subjects with a previous history of VTE, cancer, a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, or a diagnosis of cancer‐associated VTE during follow‐up. Patients were followed up from baseline until the first event of PE or DVT, death, or December 31, 2018. During the follow‐up period, 365 (2.3%) women and 168 (1.7%) men were affected by first DVT, and 309 (2.0%) women and 154 (1.5%) men were affected by first PE. In the multivariable Cox regression models, the anthropometric obesity markers of weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, fat percentage, and muscle weight were in a dose‐dependent way associated with DVT and PE among women but not men. In an analysis that included patients with cardiovascular disease and cancer‐related VTE, the results were similar for women. For men, several obesity measures became significantly associated with PE or DVT but were weaker than in women, especially for DVT. Conclusions Anthropometric obesity measures are more important risk factors for both DVT and PE among women than men, especially for individuals without cardiovascular history or previous diagnosis or cancer‐related VTE.

High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are promising targets for predicting and treating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as they mediate removal of excess cholesterol from lipid-laden macrophages that accumulate in the vasculature. This functional property of HDLs, termed cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC), is inversely associated with ASCVD. HDLs are compositionally diverse, associating with >250 different proteins, but their relative contribution to CEC remains poorly understood. Our goal was to identify and define key HDL-associated proteins that modulate CEC in humans. The proteomic signature of plasma HDL was quantified in 36 individuals in the multi-ethnic population-based Dallas Heart Study (DHS) cohort that exhibited persistent extremely high (>=90th%) or extremely low CEC (p < 0.05 for heterogeneity). These findings suggest that enrichment of specific proteins on HDLs and, thus, different subspecies of HDLs, differentially modulate the removal of cholesterol from the vasculature.

Abstract Background The global burden of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes could be decreased by improving dietary factors, but identification of groups suitable for interventional approaches can be difficult. Reporting of dietary intake is prone to errors, and measuring of metabolites has shown promise in determining habitual dietary intake. Our aim is to create a metabolic signature that is associated with healthy eating and test if it associates with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease risk. Methods Using plasma metabolite data consisting of 111 metabolites, partial least square (PLS) regression was used to identify a metabolic signature associated with a health conscious food pattern in the Malmö Offspring Study (MOS, n = 1538). The metabolic signature’s association with dietary intake was validated in the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDC, n = 2521). The associations between the diet-associated metabolic signature and incident type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were tested using Cox regression in MDC and logistic regression in Malmö Preventive Project (MPP, n = 1083). Modelling was conducted unadjusted (model 1), adjusted for potential confounders (model 2) and additionally for potential mediators (model 3). Results The metabolic signature was associated with lower risk for type 2 diabetes in both MDC (hazard ratio: 0.58, 95% CI 0.52–0.66, per 1 SD increment of the metabolic signature) and MPP (odds ratio: 0.54, 95% CI 0.44–0.65 per 1 SD increment of the metabolic signature) in model 2. The results were attenuated but remained significant in model 3 in both MDC (hazard ratio 0.73, 95% CI 0.63–0.83) and MPP (odds ratio 0.70, 95% CI 0.55–0.88). The diet-associated metabolic signature was also inversely associated with lower risk of CAD in both MDC and MPP in model 1, but the association was non-significant in model 3. Conclusions In this proof-of-concept study, we identified a healthy diet-associated metabolic signature, which was inversely associated with future risk for type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease in two different cohorts. The association with diabetes was independent of traditional risk factors and might illustrate an effect of health conscious dietary intake on cardiometabolic health.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRS) for prostate cancer incidence have been proposed to optimize prostate cancer screening. Prediction of lethal prostate cancer is key to any stratified screening program to avoid excessive overdiagnosis. Herein, PRS for incident prostate cancer was evaluated in two population-based cohorts of unscreened middle-aged men linked to cancer and death registries: the Västerbotten Intervention Project (VIP) and the Malmö Diet and Cancer study (MDC). SNP genotypes were measured by genome-wide SNP genotyping by array followed by imputation or genotyping of selected SNPs using mass spectrometry. The ability of PRS to predict lethal prostate cancer was compared to PSA and a commercialized pre-specified model based on four kallikrein markers. The PRS was associated with incident prostate cancer, replicating previously reported relative risks, and was also associated with prostate cancer death. However, unlike PSA, the PRS did not show stronger association with lethal disease: the hazard ratio for prostate cancer incidence vs. prostate cancer metastasis and death was 1.69 vs. 1.65 in VIP and 1.25 vs. 1.25 in MDC. PSA was a much stronger predictor of prostate cancer metastasis or death with an area-under-the-curve of 0.78 versus 0.63 for the PRS. Importantly, addition of PRS to PSA did not contribute additional risk stratification for lethal prostate cancer. We have shown that a PRS that predicts prostate cancer incidence does not have utility above and beyond that of PSA measured at baseline when applied to the clinically relevant endpoint of prostate cancer death. These findings have implications for public health policies for delivery of prostate cancer screening. Focusing polygenic risk scores on clinically significant endpoints such as prostate cancer metastasis or death would likely improve clinical utility.

People with kidney disease are disproportionately affected by atherosclerosis for unclear reasons. Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an immune-derived mediator of kidney disease, levels of which are strongly associated with cardiovascular outcomes. We assessed suPAR’s pathogenic involvement in atherosclerosis using epidemiologic, genetic, and experimental approaches. We found serum suPAR levels to be predictive of coronary artery calcification and cardiovascular events in 5,406 participants without known coronary disease. In a genome-wide association meta-analysis including over 25,000 individuals, we identified a missense variant in the plasminogen activator, urokinase receptor (PLAUR) gene (rs4760), confirmed experimentally to lead to higher suPAR levels. Mendelian randomization analysis in the UK Biobank using rs4760 indicated a causal association between genetically predicted suPAR levels and atherosclerotic phenotypes. In an experimental model of atherosclerosis, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin–9 (Pcsk9) transfection in mice overexpressing suPAR (suPARTg) led to substantially increased atherosclerotic plaques with necrotic cores and macrophage infiltration compared with those in WT mice, despite similar cholesterol levels. Prior to induction of atherosclerosis, aortas of suPARTg mice excreted higher levels of CCL2 and had higher monocyte counts compared with WT aortas. Aortic and circulating suPARTg monocytes exhibited a proinflammatory profile and enhanced chemotaxis. These findings characterize suPAR as a pathogenic factor for atherosclerosis acting at least partially through modulation of monocyte function.

Abstract Elevated copeptin, a surrogate marker of vasopressin, is linked to low water intake and increased diabetes risk. Water supplementation in habitual low-drinkers with high copeptin significantly lowers both fasting plasma (fp) copeptin and glucose. This study aims at investigating possible underlying mechanisms. Thirty-one healthy adults with high copeptin (> 10.7 pmol·L−1 (men), > 6.1 pmol−1 (women)) and 24-h urine volume of 600 mOsm·kg−1 were included. The intervention consisted of addition of 1.5 L water daily for 6 weeks. Fp-adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), fp-cortisol, 24-h urine cortisol, fasting and 2 h (post oral glucose) insulin and glucagon were not significantly affected by the water intervention. However, decreased (Δ baseline-6 weeks) fp-copeptin was significantly associated with Δfp-ACTH (r = 0.76, p

Abstract Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targetS) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome‐wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow‐up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty‐nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34–90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of ≥1.10 for common variants (allele frequency ≥ 0.05) and ≥1.20 for low‐frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01–0.05) at P

Mass spectrometry (MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy techniques have been used extensively for metabolite profiling. Although combining these two analytical modalities has the potential of enhancing metabolite coverage, such studies are sparse. In this study we test the hypothesis that combining the metabolic information obtained using liquid chromatography (LC) MS and 1H NMR spectroscopy improves the discrimination of metabolic disease development. We induced metabolic syndrome in male mice using a high-fat diet (HFD) exposure and performed LC-MS and NMR spectroscopy on plasma samples collected after 1 and 8 weeks of dietary intervention. In an orthogonal projection to latent structures (OPLS) analysis, we observed that combining MS and NMR was stronger than each analytical method alone at determining effects of both HFD feeding and time-on-diet. We then tested our metabolomics approach on plasma from 56 individuals from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS) cohort. All metabolic pathways impacted by HFD feeding in mice were confirmed to be affected by diabetes in the MDCS cohort, and most prominent HFD-induced metabolite concentration changes in mice were also associated with metabolic syndrome parameters in humans. The main drivers of metabolic disease discrimination emanating from the present study included plasma levels of xanthine, hippurate, 2-hydroxyisovalerate, S-adenosylhomocysteine and dimethylguanidino valeric acid. In conclusion, our combined NMR-MS approach provided a snapshot of metabolic imbalances in humans and a mouse model, which was improved over employment of each analytical method alone.

Background: Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a heterogeneous condition predominantly affecting autonomic control of the cardiovascular system. Its extensive symptom diversity implies multi-organ involvement that interacts in ways still requiring full exploration. Current understanding of POTS pathophysiology suggests alterations in the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system as a possible contributing factor. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between the activity of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system and hemodynamic parameters in a cohort of POTS patients and controls recruited at a tertiary referral center. Methods: The case-control study included 46 patients with POTS (27 ± 9 years), and 48 healthy controls (30 ± 9 years) without orthostatic intolerance. Plasma renin activity, expressed as angiotensin I generation, and plasma aldosterone were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and were correlated with hemodynamic parameters obtained during active standing tests. Results: Renin activity was significantly downregulated in POTS patients compared to healthy individuals (median, 3406 ng/mL vs. 9949 ng/mL, p < 0.001), whereas aldosterone concentration did not differ between POTS and healthy controls (median, 218 pmol/L vs. 218 pmol/L, p = 0.26). A significant inverse correlation between renin activity and supine and orthostatic blood pressure levels was observed in healthy individuals (p < 0.05 for all), but not in POTS patients. Conclusions: Renin activity, but not aldosterone concentration, is downregulated in patients with POTS. Moreover, renin activity in POTS is dissociated from supine and standing blood pressure levels in contrast to healthy individuals. These findings suggest impaired renin function in POTS, which may direct future therapeutic approaches.

Abstract Background Although coronary events (CE) and ischemic stroke share many risk factors, there are also some important differences. The aim of this paper was to assess the association of risk factors in relation to incident CE and ischemic stroke and to evaluate the heterogeneity in patterns of risk factors between the two outcomes. Method Traditional risk factors and inflammatory markers associated with coronary events and ischemic stroke were measured in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort (MDCS, n = 26 519), where a total of 2270 incident ischemic stroke and 3087 incident CE occurred during a mean follow up time 19 ± 6 years, and in relation to inflammatory markers in the cardiovascular sub-cohort (MDC-CV, n = 4795). Cox regression analysis was used to obtain hazard ratios. A modified Lunn-McNeil competing risk analysis was conducted to assess the significance of any differences in risk profiles of these outcomes. Results Most cardiovascular risk factors were associated both with incident CE and ischemic stroke. However, current smoking, ApoB, low ApoA1, male sex and education level of ≤ 9 years of schooling were preferentially associated with CE compared to ischemic stroke. Conversely, age showed a stronger association with ischemic stroke than with CE. Conclusion CE and ischemic stroke have broadly similar risk factors profiles. However, there are some important differential associations, as well as substantial differences in the magnitude of the association. These could reflect the distinct biology of atherogenesis in different vascular beds. The difference in the determinants highlights the importance of looking at CE and ischemic stroke, two manifestations of cardiovascular disease, separately.

Follistatin promotes in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathogenesis in model animals and is elevated in patients with T2D. Here the authors report that plasma follistatin associates with increased risk of incident T2D in two longitudinal cohorts, and show that follistatin regulates insulin-induced suppression lipolysis in cultured human adipocytes.

Abstract Background To identify amino acids that can predict risk of 90-day mortality in patients with acute dyspnea. Method Plasma levels of nine amino acids were analyzed 663 adult patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) with acute dyspnea. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the relation between amino acid levels and the risk of 90-day mortality. Result Eighty patients (12.1%) died within 90 days of admission. An “Amino Acid Mortality Risk Score” (AMRS), summing absolute plasma levels of glycine, phenylalanine and valine, demonstrated that among the patients belonging to quartile 1 (Q1) of the AMRS, only 4 patients died, compared to 44 patients in quartile 4. Using Q1 of the AMRS as reference, each increment of 1 SD in the AMRS was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.15 for 90-day mortality, and the HR was > 9 times higher in Q4. Conclusion Glycine, phenylalanine and valine are associated with a risk of 90-day mortality in patients admitted to the ED for acute dyspnea, suggesting that these amino acids may be useful in risk assessments.

Abstract Background The relationship between growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still unclear. We sought to examine whether plasma GDF-15 was related to incident CKD and kidney function decline using a large prospective cohort study. Methods 4318 participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study-Cardiovascular Cohort were examined in 1991-1994. Incidence of CKD was followed prospectively by linkage with national patient registers. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was available for all participants at baseline, and was re-measured in a subgroup of 2744 subjects after 16.6 ± 1.49 years. Incidence of CKD was examined in relation to GDF-15 using Cox regression analysis. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of GDF-15 with eGFR change and eGFR-based CKD. Models were carefully corrected for potential confounders including baseline eGFR, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and competing risk from death. Results 165 patients developed CKD after 19.2 ± 4.04 years of follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval, CI) for CKD in 4th versus 1st quartile of GDF-15 was 2.37 (1.33, 4.24) (p for trend

Background: The impact of body mass index (BMI) on mortality varies with age and disease states. The aim of this research study was to analyse the associations between BMI categories and short- and long-term mortality in patients with or without diabetes seeking care at the emergency department (ED) with acute dyspnoea. Population and methods: Patients aged ≥18 years at ED during daytime on weekdays from March 2013 to July 2018 were included. Participants were triaged according to the Medical Emergency Triage and Treatment System-Adult score (METTS-A), and blood samples were collected. Totally, 1,710 patients were enrolled, with missing values in 113, leaving 1,597 patients, 291 with diabetes and 1,306 without diabetes. The association between BMI and short-term (90-day) and long-term (mean follow-up time 2.1 years) mortality was estimated by Cox regression with normal BMI (18.5–24.9) as referent category, with adjustment for age, sex, METTS-A scoring, glomerular filtration rate, smoking habits and cardiovascular comorbidity in a fully adjusted model. The Bonferroni correction was also used. Results: Regarding long-term mortality, patients with diabetes and BMI category ≥30 kg/m2 had a fully adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23–0.69), significant after the Bonferroni correction. Amongst patients without diabetes, those with underweight had an increased risk but only of borderline significance, whilst risks in those with overweight or obesity did not differ from reference.Regarding short-term mortality, risks did not differ from reference amongst patients with or without diabetes. Conclusions: We found divergent long-term mortality risks in patients with and without diabetes, with lower risk in obese patients (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) with diabetes, but no increased risk for patients without diabetes and overweight (BMI: 25–29.9 kg/m2) and obesity.

Abstract Childless men are reported to have a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Information on inherited genetic risk for CVD has improved the predictive models. Presuming that childlessness is a proxy of infertility we aimed to investigate if childless men inherit more often genetic traits for CVD and if combining genetic and parenthood information improves predictive models for CVD morbidity and mortality. Data was sourced from a large prospective population-based cohort where genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated using two sets of either 27 (GRS 27) or 50 (GRS 50) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously found to be associated with CVD. Part of the participants (n = 2572 men) were randomly assigned to a sub-cohort with focus on CVD which served as an exploratory cohort. The obtained statistically significant results were tested in the remaining (confirmatory) part of the cohort (n = 9548 men). GRS distribution did not differ between childless men and fathers (p-values for interaction between 0.29 and 0.76). However, when using fathers with low GRS as reference high GRS was a strong predictor for CVD mortality, the HR (95% CI) increasing from 1.92 (1.10–3.36) for GRS 50 and 1.54 (0.87–2.75) for GRS 27 in fathers to 3.12 (1.39–7.04) for GRS50 and 3.73 (1.75–7.99) for GRS27 in childless men. The confirmatory analysis showed similar trend. Algorithms including paternal information and GRS were more predictive for CVD mortality at 5 and 10 years follow-ups when compared to algorithms including GRS only (AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.84–0.90), and, AUC 0.81 (95% CI 0.75–0.87) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.82), respectively). Combining information on parental status and GRS for CVD may improve the predictive power of risk algorithms in middle-aged men. Childless men and those with severe infertility problem may be an important target group for prevention of CVD.

The application of polygenic risk scores to individual-level disease susceptibility is challenging, as risk is evaluated at a group-level. Here, the authors describe a machine learning method, Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction, that reports disease status conditional probability value at the individual level.

Abstract Background Tissue factor is the main initiator of blood coagulation, and tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) is the primary inhibitor of the initiation of blood coagulation. The genetic variation of TFPI and the relation to venous thromboembolism (VTE), that is, venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, remains to be clarified. This exome sequencing study aimed to determine the molecular epidemiology of the TFPI gene and the relation to VTE in a large population‐based cohort of middle‐aged and older adults. Methods The exomes of TFPI were analyzed for variants in 28,794 subjects without previous VTE (born 1923–1950, 60% women), who participated in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (1991–1996). Patients were followed until the first event of VTE, death, or 2018. Qualifying variants were defined as loss‐of‐function or nonbenign (PolyPhen‐2) missense variants with minor allele frequency less than 0.1%. Results No common variant was associated with VTE. Nine rare variants (two loss‐of‐function and seven nonbenign missense) were classified as qualifying and included in collapsing analysis. Prevalence of qualifying variants was 0.09%. Five individuals with VTE compared to 17 individuals without VTE carried one qualifying variant. Cox multivariate regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, smoking and alcohol consumption, rs6025, rs1799963, and ancestry showed a hazard ratio of 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2–7.1) for rare qualifying variants. Conclusion Rare qualifying TFPI variants were associated with VTE, suggesting that rare variants in TFPI contribute to the development of VTE. The qualifying TFPI gene variants were very rare, suggesting a constrained gene.

Abstract Aims Heart failure (HF) is a common disease with increasing prevalence and poor prognosis. The vasopressin (VP) marker copeptin predicts development of diabetes mellitus, diabetic heart disease, coronary artery disease, and premature mortality. Copeptin is elevated in HF patients and predicts a worse outcome. This study aims to investigate whether copeptin can predict HF development. Methods Copeptin was analysed in 5297 individuals (69.6% men) without prevalent HF from the Malmö Preventive Project, a population‐based prospective cohort. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse risk of incident HF by copeptin levels after adjusting for conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Results During a median follow‐up time of 11.1 years, 350 subjects (6.6%) were diagnosed with HF. Of these events, 99 were classified as myocardial infarction (MI) related HF and 251 as non‐MI‐related HF. Individuals in the top quartile of copeptin had, after multivariate adjustment for conventional risk factors (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, antihypertensive therapy, smoking, low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol), a significantly increased risk of developing HF by 1.63 [confidence interval (CI) 1.20–2.21] for HF compared with the reference quartile 1. After adjustment for conventional risk factors, the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increase of log‐transformed copeptin for any HF was 1.30 (95% CI 1.17–1.46), whereas it was 1.39 (CI 1.13–1.71) for MI‐related HF and 1.26 (CI 1.11–1.44) for non‐MI‐related HF. The associations remained after additional adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate [HR 1.24 (95% CI: 1.10–1.40)] and for pro atrial natriuretic peptide on top of conventional risk factors [HR 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02–1.28)]. Conclusions Elevated copeptin predicts development of HF in older adults. Copeptin is a risk marker of VP‐driven HF susceptibility and a candidate to guide prevention efforts of HF targeting the VP system.

Abstract C-terminal α-amidation is the final and essential step in the biosynthesis of several peptide hormones. Peptidylglycine α-amidating monooxygenase (PAM) is the only known enzyme to catalyse this reaction. PAM amidating activity (AMA) is known to be present in human circulation, but its physiological role and significance as a clinical biomarker remains unclear. We developed a PAM-specific amidation assay that utilizes the naturally occurring substrate Adrenomedullin-Gly (ADM-Gly, 1–53). Using our amidation assay we quantified serum amidating activities in a large population-based cohort of more than 4900 individuals. A correlation of serum amidating activity with several clinical parameters including high blood pressure was observed. Increasing PAM-AMA was an independent predictor of hard outcomes related to hemodynamic stress such as cardiovascular mortality, atrial fibrillation and heart failure during long-term follow-up (8.8 ± 2.5 years). Moreover, results from an animal study in rats utilizing recombinant human PAM provide novel insights into the physiological role of circulating PAM and show its potential significance in circulating peptide amidation.

Abstract Dupuytren’s disease (DD) is a fibroproliferative disorder affecting the palmar fascia of the hand. Risk factors include diabetes mellitus (DM), whereas a high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a lower prevalence of DD. The aim of this study was to further elucidate risk and protective factors for the development of DD using longitudinal population-based data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (MDCS). During 1991–1996, the inhabitants aged 46–73 years in the city of Malmö, Sweden were invited to participate in the population-based MDCS (41% participation rate). Data on incident DD were retrieved from Swedish national registers. Associations between DM, alcohol consumption, BMI, and serum apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1) and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) at baseline were analysed in multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for known confounders. Among 30,446 recruited participants, 347 men and 194 women were diagnosed with DD during a median follow-up time of 23 years. DM (men HR 2.23; 95% CI 1.50–3.30, women HR 2.69; 95% CI 1.48–4.90) and alcohol consumption (men HR 2.46; 95% CI 1.85–3.27, women HR 3.56; 95% CI 1.95–6.50) were independently associated with incident DD in the Cox regression models. Furthermore, inverse associations with incident DD were found for obesity among men, and ApoB/ApoA1 ratio among both sexes. DM and excess alcohol consumption constituted major risk factors for the development of DD. Furthermore, an inverse association between obesity among men and DD, and also between ApoB/ApoA1 ratio and DD was found in both sexes.

Neurotensin (NT) is a small protein implicated in the regulation of energy balance which acts as both a neurotransmitter in the central nervous system and as a gastrointestinal peptide. In the gut, NT is secreted after fat ingestion and promotes the absorption of fatty acids. The circulating levels of its precursor, pro-NT, predicts the presence and development of metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. Despite the extensive knowledge on the dynamic changes that occur to pro-NT = after fat load, the determinants of fasting pro-NT are unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the possible genetic regulation of plasma pro-NT. The NT gene (NTS) was sequenced for potential functional variants, evaluating its entire genomic and potentially regulatory regions, in DNA from 28 individuals, stratified by low and high pro-NT levels. The identified variant differently distributed in the two pro-NT subgroups was genotyped in a cohort of nine hundred and thirty-two overweight/obese children and adolescents. A total of seven sequence variations across the NTS gene, none of them located in coding regions, were identified. The rs2234762 polymorphism, sited in the NTS gene promoter, was statistically more frequent in the lowest pro-NTS level group. Carriers of the rs2234762 variant showed lower pro-NT levels, after adjusting for sex, age, BMI, triglycerides and the Tanner stage. Having NTS rs2234762 predicted less pronounced insulin resistance at the 6.5-year follow-up with OR: 0.46 (0.216–0.983), at the logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, sex and BMI. In conclusion, the NTS rs2234762 gene variant is a determinant of reduced circulating pro-NT levels in overweight and obese children, which predisposes this group to a more favorable metabolic profile and a reduced insulin resistance later in life, independently from metabolic confounders.

Abstract Background Alterations in levels of circulating micro-RNAs might reflect within organ signaling or subclinical tissue injury that is linked to risk of diabetes and cardiovascular risk. We previously found that serum levels of miR-483-5p is correlated with cardiometabolic risk factors and incidence of cardiometabolic disease in a case–control sample from the populations-based Malmö Diet and Cancer Study Cardiovascular Cohort (MDC-CC). We here aimed at replicating these findings and to test for association with carotid atherosclerosis. Methods We measured miR-483-5p in fasting serum of 1223 healthy subjects from the baseline examination of the population-based, prospective cohort study Malmö Offspring Study (MOS) and correlated miR-483-5p to cardiometabolic risk factors and to incidence of diabetes mellitus and coronary artery disease (CAD) during 3.7 (± 1.3) years of follow-up using logistic regression. In both MOS and MDC-CC we related mir-483-5p to carotid atherosclerosis measured with ultrasound. Results In cross-sectional analysis miR-483-5p was correlated with BMI, waist circumference, HDL, and sex. After adjustment for age and sex, the association remained significant for all risk factors except for HDL. Logistic regression analysis showed significant associations between miR-483-5p and new-onset diabetes (OR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.06–3.56, p = 0.032) and cardiovascular disease (OR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.06–3.75, p = 0.033) during 3.7 (± 1.3) years of follow-up. Furthermore, miR-483-5p was significantly related with maximum intima-media thickness of the carotid bulb in MDC-CC (p = 0.001), but not in MOS, whereas it was associated with increasing number of plaques in MOS (p = 0.007). Conclusion miR-483-5p is related to an unfavorable cardiometabolic risk factor profile and predicts diabetes and CAD, possibly through an effect on atherosclerosis. Our results encourage further studies of possible underlying mechanisms and means of modifying miR-483-5p as a possible interventional target in prevention of cardiometabolic disease.