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Seasonal forecasts coupled with crop models can potentially enhance decision-making in smallholder farming in Africa. The study sought to inform future research through identifying and critiquing crop and climate models, and techniques for integrating seasonal forecast information and crop models. Peer-reviewed articles related to crop modelling and seasonal forecasting were sourced from Google Scholar, Web of Science, AGRIS, and JSTOR. Nineteen articles were selected from a search outcome of 530. About 74% of the studies used mechanistic models, which are favored for climate risk management research as they account for crop management practices. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg, are the predominant global climate models (GCMs) used across Africa. A range of approaches have been assessed to improve the effectiveness of the connection between seasonal forecast information and mechanistic crop models, which include GCMs, analogue, stochastic disaggregation, and statistical prediction through converting seasonal weather summaries into the daily weather. GCM outputs are produced in a format compatible with mechanistic crop models. Such outputs are critical for researchers to have information on the merits and demerits of tools and approaches on integrating seasonal forecast and crop models. There is however need to widen such research to other regions in Africa, crop, farming systems, and policy.

Interrogative proteome analyses are used to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in heat-stressed plants. The objectives of the study were to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) heat-tolerant (Acc#7) and sensitive genotype (Acc#8) from a field study. Proteomic and gene ontological analyses showed an upregulation in proteins related to protein synthesis, intracellular traffic, defence and transport in the heat-tolerant genotype compared to the susceptible one at the warmer site. Results from KEGG analyses indicate the involvement of probable sucrose-phosphate synthase (EC 2.4.1.14) and sucrose-phosphate phosphatase (EC 3.1.3.24) proteins, that were upregulated in the heat-tolerant genotype at the warmer site, in the starch and sucrose pathway. The presence of these differentially regulated proteins including HSP70, ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase activase, plastocyanin and protoporphyrinogen oxidase suggests their potential role in heat tolerance, at flowering growth stage, in field-grown chickpea. This observation supports unaltered physiological and biochemical performance of the heat-tolerant genotypes (Acc#7) relative to the susceptible genotype (Acc#8) in related studies (Makonya et al. 2019). Characterisation of the candidate proteins identified in the current study as well as their specific roles in the tolerance to heat stress in chickpea are integral to further crop improvement initiatives.

In recent decades climate change has impacted ecosystems negatively globally with Mediterranean systems being particularly vulnerable. Changes in rainfall pattern and amounts have led to increases in flooding and droughts in certain areas of the world. Many important agricultural crops such as Aspalathus linearis (Burm.f.) R. Dahlgren, rooibos tea, rely on the Mediterranean-type seasonality in the Western Cape, South Africa. Aspalathus linearis plants, which occur naturally in the Cedarberg, grow in hot and dry summer conditions and have a root that penetrates the soil down to 2 m, yet no work has looked at the root response to drought under low rainfall environments. The objective of this study was to determine the physiological and morphological response of A. linearis plants grown at two different water regimes to drought. A potted glasshouse experiment was carried out where drought stress (withdrawing watering) was imposed on well-watered and low moisture supplied plants. The low moisture droughted plants exhibited drought tolerant mechanisms which included higher root/shoot ratios as well as thinner roots, both of which are effective for water and nutrient uptake. Overall, plants in the 30% FC treatment recorded lower Pmax, gs and E after three days in the drought conditions while 70% FC plants were only affected after five days. Furthermore, plants grown under low moisture conditions produced 50% lower biomass compared to plants grown under adequate moisture conditions. This implies that low rainfall and the occurrences of dry spells and drought, associated with climate change are likely to reduce the production of A. linearis in the Cederberg area.

Agriculture in South Africa sustains about 70% of the region’s population for food, income and employment, playing an important role for food security and the local economy. The focus of the study was the commercial maize farms of the Free State Province given their importance in the National economy. The Regional Integrated Assessment (phase I) was implemented to assess climate change and adaptation that links climate, crops, economic data and tools developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). In this context, the “system” is defined as a whole of agronomic and socio-economic factors. Within that framework three core questions were being evaluated: (i) Impacts of climate change under current system; (ii) Impacts of climate change under future system; (iii) The role of adaptation under climate change and the future system. Maize production will decrease between 10% to 16% as a result of projected climate impacts. Also, current agricultural production systems are negatively affected by climate change with an increase in poverty rates between 2% to 3%. The projected adoption of the adapted technology would result in positive increased net returns and a decrease in poverty rate of between 12% and 22%. The results of this study show that implementing adaptation measures, including strategies indicated by the local stakeholders, will have positive impacts on the agricultural production systems and can contribute to support and inform climate change policy decision making such as the development of National Adaptation Plans.

Agriculture faces an enormous global challenge of feeding nine billion people by 2050. This means a comprehensive intensification of agriculture is required. Ecological intensification is gaining momentum as a clearly defined vision for increasing agriculture productivity and sustainability. How ecological intensification could be tailored to benefit smallholder farming systems in sub Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the major question. In this study, we develop pathways relying on ecological intensification technologies and suiting different farm types of smallholder agriculture. This study relies on multiyear engagements with agricultural experts and smallholder farmers in Ha Lambani, South Africa and leads to the identification of farmer groupings. We analyse 40 in-depth semi structured interviews with farmers which leads to the identification of farming patterns and constraints. We present how farming systems analysis of challenges and constraints helps to identify and link specific ecosystem services with suitable ecological intensification options. We conclude that the expert-based classification of farmers offered a more contextualized representation of farming system heterogeneity, where tailored ecological intensification technologies could play a major role in improving agricultural productivity. Beyond this community, it emphasizes the need to consider farmers type heterogeneity as a strong decision parameter for targeting ecological intensification.

Adoption of research-based rainfall variability management strategies among small-scale farmers in South Africa is limited. A study was therefore conducted to improve understanding of rainf...

The consequences of changing climate are often negatively impacting agricultural production, particularly vulnerable smallholder farmers. Smallholder systems heterogeneity requires local specific climate adaptation for reducing the negative impacts of changing climate in regions heavily relying on small farms agriculture. This study examined the trend in climate in Ghana, how smallholder horticultural farmers perceive this changing climate and how they are responding to its perceived effects. A survey of 480 resource-constrained horticultural producers was conducted in two municipalities of Ghana. Descriptive analysis and Weighted Average Index were employed to rank identified adaptation strategies and challenges. The results showed that farmers are already experiencing increasing temperature and declining rainfall patterns consistent with trends of observed climate changing in the last two decades. To reduce vulnerability and improve resilience of smallholders’ production activities, a range of farmer driven soil, water and crop conservation measures and farm management practices are being adopted. The most important adaptation practices identified include fertilization, supplementary irrigation, crop rotation, intercropping and mixed farming. Enhancing households’ climate adaptive capacity is dependent on factors such as improved access to financial resources, climate and production information, market accessibility, farm equipment, storage facilities and other institutional support. To facilitate effective and successful adaptation at the local level, government and institutional support are recommended to complement households’ autonomous strategies for improved decision-making, adaptation plans and actions. Keywords: Climate variability, Adaptation, Adaptive capacity, Smallholder farmers, Horticulture, Ghana

Changing climate is posing considerable threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and to smallholder farming systems, the predominant agricultural livelihood activity in Africa. Study of specific systems enables clearer and more effective responses to be directly targeted for enhanced adaptation, but there is limited knowledge guiding specific subsector vulnerability assessments. We applied the Livelihood Vulnerability Index to understand and identify the nature and sources of vulnerability among smallholder horticultural farming households to climate variability in two districts in Ghana. A total of 480 households engaging in fruit and vegetable crop production were surveyed in Keta and Nsawam districts of Ghana. Data were collected on indicators for Livelihood Vulnerability Index components such as socio-demographic profiles, livelihood strategies, social networking, health, food, production, water, natural disasters, and climate variability. The vulnerability-contributing factors were aggregated in a composite index and differences were compared. The results indicate that smallholder horticultural farmers in Keta are more vulnerable in relation to high exposure and high sensitivity to climate variability, while smallholders in Nsawam are more vulnerable in terms of low capacity to adapt to climate variability. As it is the case for smallholder horticultural farming communities, the study suggests that Livelihood Vulnerability Index can be broadly applied to highlight potential areas for intervention and reduce the vulnerability of sector-specific farming communities within local and national levels.

Decision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

Heat and drought stresses are two abiotic factors that often occur simultaneouslyand are predicted to increase, consequently hampering plant growth. Responseof different species to either stresses is well documented but information on theresponse of the same genotypes to both stresses in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.)is limited.We aimed to determine whether previously noted heat-stress-tolerantgenotype (Acc#7) is drought tolerant, that heat-sensitive genotype (Acc#8) isdrought sensitive, and whether intermittent moisture supply at vegetative stagewould induce priming effect to later drought at flowering. At vegetative stage,plants were divided into three groups, nonstressed (watered to 75% field capacity[FC], severe water stress (moisture withholding for 14 d), and treated to 40% FCthroughout the experiment (mild stress), with recovery for the severely stressedplants after which they were stressed (double stress) at flowering. Drought treatmentsat vegetative and flowering growth stages decreased physiological parametersand biomass accumulation in both genotypes except low water supply at40% FC that decreased biomass in Acc#7 but not Acc#8. Double-drought stressresulted in priming effect in Acc#7, having higher biomass, chlorophyll fluorescence,stomatal conductance (gs), net photosynthesis, and relative water content(RWC) vs. the introduction of stress only at flowering growth stage as well asin comparison with Acc#8. These results showed that both Acc#7 and Acc#8 aresensitive to drought, whereas after priming,Acc#7 is better acclimated to droughtthan Acc#8 associated with osmotic adjustment on leaf RWC and higher capacityto protect photosynthetic activity, making Acc#7 potentially ideal for areasassociated with intermittent drought spells.

Interrogative proteome analyses are used to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in heat-stressed plants. The objectives of the study were to identify and quantify the expression of proteins involved in heat tolerance and to identify associated physiological processes in chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) heat-tolerant (Acc#7) and sensitive genotype (Acc#8) from a field study. Proteomic and gene ontological analyses showed an upregulation in proteins related to protein synthesis, intracellular traffic, defence and transport in the heat-tolerant genotype compared to the susceptible one at the warmer site. Results from KEGG analyses indicate the involvement of probable sucrose-phosphate synthase (EC 2.4.1.14) and sucrose-phosphate phosphatase (EC 3.1.3.24) proteins, that were upregulated in the heat-tolerant genotype at the warmer site, in the starch and sucrose pathway. The presence of these differentially regulated proteins including HSP70, ribulose bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase activase, plastocyanin and protoporphyrinogen oxidase suggests their potential role in heat tolerance, at flowering growth stage, in field-grown chickpea. This observation supports unaltered physiological and biochemical performance of the heat-tolerant genotypes (Acc#7) relative to the susceptible genotype (Acc#8) in related studies (Makonya et al. 2019). Characterisation of the candidate proteins identified in the current study as well as their specific roles in the tolerance to heat stress in chickpea are integral to further crop improvement initiatives.

Ecological intensification is being promoted to address food security and environmental challenges. It has shown the potential to improve yields as well as adapt and mitigate the effects of climate variability and change. Despite the great potential, smallholder farmers continue to shun the latter. Apart from this, limited research has been conducted focussing on their acceptance and use in smallholder sub-Saharan African agricultural systems. In this study, a qualitative approach using the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) four constructs (performance, ease of use, social influence and enablers) was used to assess behavioral intention to accept and use ecological intensification options. A total of 97 smallholder farmers from diverse farm types in rural Limpopo and Eastern Cape, South Africa participated in focus group discussions to assess behavioral intention to accept and use ecological intensification options. Smallholder farmers revealed that they were exposed to a plethora of ecological intensification options. However, acceptance and utilization of these options were low, mainly due to lack of awareness, germplasm, and technical support. The four constructs of the UTAUT framework revealed locally relevant knowledge that must be considered for effective acceptance and use of ecological intensification options. Abbreviations: ACCESS: Alliance for Collaboration for Climate and Earth System Sciences; ADCI: African Climate Development Initiative; NRF: National Research Foundation; SSA: Sub Saharan Africa; UTAUT: Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology; WRC: Water Research Commission; FAO: Food and Agriculture Organisation; CA: Conservation Agriculture.

Background Climate change is expected to significantly impact agricultural production across Africa. While a number of studies assessed this impact in semi-arid southern Africa, or tropical West Africa, only a limited number took interest in the mountainous and climatically varying Ethiopia of eastern Africa. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize production in three representative sites of maize growing areas in Ethiopia. The assessment relies on the DSSAT crop model simulation of maize under current climate and future projections (19 Global Climate Models and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways). The period 1980–2010 was used to represent the baseline climate, while future climate projections cover three periods; near term (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099). Climate, soil and crop management data were collected for the study sites representing the maize growing areas in the country. Results Results show that maize yields will decrease by up to 43 and 24% by the end of the century at Bako and Melkassa stations, respectively, while simulated maize yield in Hawassa show an increase of 51%. On the one hand, rainfall variability and rising temperatures are determining factors explaining yield decrease in Bako and Melkassa, while projected rainfall increase in Hawassa explain simulated yield increases. Conclusion The terrain and climate high variability of Ethiopia is emphasizing the extremely different responses of current agricultural systems to climate change. Though adaptation approached can address some negative impacts, and in some case can take advantage of changes, this study reveals that dedicated local knowledge is necessary for national and regional decision makers to respond with local relevance to a global exposure, in order to face food security challenges.

Large uncertainties about the impacts of climate change and adaptation options on the livestock component of heterogeneous African farming systems hamper tailored decision making towards climate-smart agriculture. This study addressed this knowledge gap through the development and use of a dynamic modelling framework integrating climate, crop, pasture and livestock models. The framework was applied to a population of 91 farms located in semi-arid Zimbabwe to assess effects on livestock production resulting from climate change and management interventions. Climate scenarios representing relative "cool-wet", "hot-dry" and "middle" conditions by mid-century (2040-2070) for two representative concentration pathways were compared with the baseline climate. On-farm fodder resources and rangeland grass production were simulated with the crop model APSIM and the pasture model GRASP respectively. The simulated fodder availability was used in the livestock model LIVSIM to generate various production indicators including milk, offtake, mortality, manure, and net revenue. We investigated the effects of two adaptation packages targeting soil fertility management and crop diversification and quantified the sensitivity to climate change of both current and improved systems. Livestock productivity was constrained by dry-season feed gaps, which were particularly severe for crude protein and caused by the reliance on rangeland grazing and crop residues, both of low quality in the dry season. Effects on grass and stover production depended on the climate scenario and the crop, but year-to-year variation generally increased. Relative changes in livestock net revenue compared to the baseline climate varied from a 6% increase to a 43% decrease, and the proportion of farmers negatively affected varied from 20% to 100%, depending on the climate scenario. Adverse effects of climate change on average livestock production usually coincided with increased year-to-year variability and risk. Farms with larger stocking density faced more severe feed gaps and were more sensitive to climate change than less densely stocked farms. The first adaptation package resulted in increased stover production and a small increase in livestock productivity. The inclusion of grain and forage legumes with the second package increased milk productivity and net revenues more profoundly by 30%. This was attributed to the alleviation of dry-season feed gaps, which also reduced the sensitivity to climate change compared to the current system. Clearly, individual farms were affected differently by climate change and by improved farm management, illustrating that disaggregated impact assessments are needed to effectively inform decision making towards climate change adaptation.

Anthropogenic climate change likely influences the beginning of 2020 growing season's water deficit in parts of southern Africa, with severe consequences to food security.

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2&ndash, 4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2&ndash, 3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region.

he Conference Proceedings are the product of the 2018 Adaptation Futures conference that was held in Cape Town from 18 – 21 June, co-hosted by UCT’s African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI), the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and UN Environment’s World Adaptation Science Programme (PROVIA). Adaptation Futures is the world’s premier international adaptation conference series and is held every two years. 2018 was the first time that this conference was held in Africa, and consequently, it aimed to focus on African and developing world linkages with adaptation. The extended abstracts were submitted after the conference to allow the authors to absorb the conference insights into their work.

Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), a cool season crop is severely affected by heat stress, predicted to increase due to warming climates. Research for identifying heat tolerance markers for potential chickpea genotype selection is imperative. The study assessed the response of four chickpea genotypes to a natural temperature gradient in the field using chlorophyll fluorescence, non-structural carbohydrate, chlorophyll concentrations, gas exchange and grain yield. Field experiments were carried out in two winter seasons at three locations with known differences in temperature in NE South Africa. Results showed two genotypes were tolerant to heat stress with an Fv/Fm of 0.83–0.85 at the warmer site, while the two sensitive genotypes showed lower Fv/Fm of 0.78–0.80. Both dark-adapted Fv/Fm and Fq'/Fm' (where Fq' = Fm' –F)measured at comparable high light levels correlated positively with grain yield. The two tolerant genotypes also showed higher photosynthetic rates, starch, sucrose and grain yield than the sensitive genotypes at the warmer site. However, these parameters were consistently higher at the cooler sites than at the warmer. These results were further validated by a climate chamber experiment, where higher Fv/Fm decline in the sensitive compared to tolerant genotypes was observed when they were exposed to short-term heat treatments of 30/25 °C and 35/30 °C. Tolerant genotypes had higher Fv/Fm (0.78–0.81)and grain yield plant−1(1.12–2.37g)compared to sensitive genotypes (0.74–0.75)and (0.32–0.89g plant−1)respectively in the 35/30 °C. It is concluded that chlorophyll fluorescence and leaf carbohydrates are suitable tools for selection of heat tolerant chickpea genotypes under field conditions, while the coolest site showed favourable conditions for chickpea production.

In developing and least developed countries (LDCs) such as Angola, where household income and the food security of rural communities is heavily dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, there is a risk that climate change will undermine the potential contributions of the agriculture sector toward national objectives for sustainable development and food security. Furthermore, climate change is likely to alter the spatial variation in crop suitability, thus shifting the dynamics of food production at the district, provincial, national and regional levels. Decision-makers have at their disposal very little agronomic and climate information downscaled and interpreted for the local level, and this poses obstacles to the creation of long-term strategies for climate-resilient agricultural development. To provide this type of information, this study assessed the projected spatial changes in suitability of Angola’s planalto region for production of two staple crops (maize and cassava), in response to future temperature and precipitation changes projected by 29 general circulation models (GCMs). The projected changes to crop suitability indices were calculated for six provinces using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO’s) EcoCrop analytical tool, and were analysed both in terms of changes in absolute crop suitability as well as changes in spatial distribution of crop-suitable areas. Those changes were aggregated to the province level to support improved integration of information on future suitability of staple crops in each of the six studied provinces. The increased availability and quality of information will support improved decision-making on specific crops, cultivars and farming practices to be promoted as part of a strategy for climate-resilient agricultural and socio-economic development in Angola.

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971–2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre’s regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971–2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5–3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

Mediterranean systems, such as in South Africa, are particularly vulnerable to the predicted increases in mean surface temperatures which will likely affect the growth and physiology of many plants and subsequently affect agricultural productivity. Aspalathus linearis (Burm.f.) R. Dahlgren (rooibos) is an important commercial, endemic crop that is produced in the Cederberg region, South Africa. This region experiences a Mediterranean-type ecosystem that is characterised by hot, dry summers (November – February) and cool, wet winters (May – August). This study assessed the effects of temperature on the growth and stress tolerant traits of A. linearis over two years. Crop biomass and selected physiological traits were determined in the field, along a temperature gradient, at four farm sites in the Cederberg during the summer and winter 2017 and summer 2018. Aspalathus linearis plants showed evidence of transpirational leaf cooling during summer and this, combined with lower chlorophyll and high phenolic content, could be considered acclimatized adaptive changes allowing the plants to mitigate the heating effects of elevated temperatures. Although changes in soil nutrients and increasing temperatures had a negative impact on crop biomass, the phenolic content, a measure of tea quality, did not vary with sites. This suggests that a shift in rooibos farming to cooler and wetter areas further south, for better growth and higher yields, would not compromise the quality of rooibos tea.

Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impacts of climate on grape yield in the country have focussed on the impact of rainfall and temperature separately; meanwhile, grape yields are affected by drought, which is a combination of rainfall and temperature influences. The present study investigates the impacts of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape (South Africa) at district and farm scales. The study used a new drought index that is based on simple water balance (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter, SPEI) to identify drought events and used a correlation analysis to identify the relationship between drought and grape yields. A crop simulation model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) was applied at the farm scale to investigate the role of irrigation in mitigating the impacts of drought on grape yield. The model gives a realistic simulation of grape yields. The Western Cape has experienced a series of severe droughts in the past few decades. The severe droughts occurred when a decrease in rainfall occurred simultaneously with an increase in temperature. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) appears to be an important driver of drought severity in the Western Cape, because most of the severe droughts occurred in El Nino years. At the district scale, the correlation between drought index and grape yield is weak (r≈−0.5), but at the farm scale, it is strong (r≈−0.9). This suggests that many farmers are able to mitigate the impacts of drought on grape yields through irrigation management. At the farm scale, where the impact of drought on grape yields is high, poor yield years coincide with moderate or severe drought periods. The APSIM simulation, which gives a realistic simulation of grape yields at the farm scale, suggests that grape yields become more sensitive to spring and summer droughts in the absence of irrigation. Results of this study may guide decision-making on how to reduce the impacts of drought on food security in South Africa.

Climate change impact assessments on agriculture in Southern Africa are mostly carried out at large spatial scales, risking missing out on local impacts and adaptation potential that reflect the range of multiple and unique bio-physical and agronomic conditions under which farmers in the region operate. This study investigated how climate change may affect yields of various major food crops in specific locations in the region; maize and sorghum (Mohale’s Hoek – Lesotho and Big Bend – Swaziland), maize and groundnut (Lilongwe – Malawi). Using statistically downscaled climate projections from nine GCMs and the DSSAT crop model and simulating selected agronomic strategies practiced in each location, the study confirmed that impacts of climate change on crop yields in Southern Africa vary across locations and crops. Despite various uncertainties associated with such assessments, the results showed that crop yields were predominantly projected to decline in Big Bend (maize (−20%); sorghum (−16%)) and Lilongwe (maize (−5%); groundnut (−33%)). However, crop yields in Mohale’s Hoek, located in a high altitude region historically prone to cold related crop yield losses were on average projected to increase (maize (+8%) and sorghum (+51%)). The geographical variation of yield projections highlights the importance of location specific climate change impact assessments. The exploration of local agronomic management alternatives revealed prospects for identifying locally relevant adaptation strategies, which cannot easily be captured at larger scales.

Background:\ud Climate variations have a considerable impact on crop production. For pineapple, variable temperatures and rainfall patterns are implicated, yet there is limited knowledge of the conditions and consequences of such variations. Pineapple production plays a major role in Ghana, primarily via socioeconomic impacts and the export economy. The aims of this study were to assess the impact of current climatic trends and variations in four pineapple growing districts in Ghana to provide stakeholders, particularly farmers, with improved knowledge for guidance in adapting to changing climate.\ud \ud Results:\ud Trend analysis, standardized anomaly, correlation analysis as well as focus group discussions were employed to describe climate and yields as well as assess the relationship between climate and pineapple production from 1995 to 2014. The results revealed that, relative to Ga district, temperature (minimum and maximum) in the study areas was increasing over this period at a rate of up to 0.05 °C. Rainfall trends increased in all but Nsawam Adoagyiri district. Rainfall and temperature had different impacts on production, and pineapple was particularly sensitive to minimum temperature as accounting for up to 82% of yield variability. Despite consistent report of rainfall impact on growth stages later affecting quantity and quality of fruits, minimal statistical significance was found between rainfall and yield.\ud \ud Conclusions:\ud With continuously increasing stresses imposed by a changing climate, the sustainability of pineapple production in Ghana is challenged. This subsequently has detrimental impacts on national employment and exports capacity resulting in increased poverty. Further research to explore short- and long-term adaption options in response to challenging conditions in the pineapple industry in Ghana is suggested.

This chapter details the common biophysical approach used to assess the impact of climate change on local crop production and critiques it to highlight usefulness and limitations in informing climate change response action. The chapter reviews various location-specific climate change impact studies in southern Africa and details their results in the context of the methodologies and tools applied. Ultimately lessons for improvements in future research are drawn. The chapter advocates future research efforts that will provide useful information for stakeholders in the agricultural sector to better respond to climate change as it affects vulnerable farmers, via improved local impact assessment and the incorporation of nonphysical local perspectives (i.e., going beyond biophysical impacts).

Crop–livestock farming systems that are predominant in Africa, are complex with various interrelated ecological and economic factors. They involve multiple products or benefits (intended and nonintended), with trade-offs and synergies occurring both on- and off-site and varying over time. Understanding both simplistic relationships and complex interactions between climate and agricultural production systems to determine overall system efficiency and impacts on human well-being is a major challenge. Computer-based tools coupled with participatory approaches for systems integrated assessments have the potential to resolve multiple dimensions of these complex systems. The products of these environmental, economic, and social analyses are important in the development of climate smart adaptation strategies. To reduce burdening the environment and contributing to resilience and sustained production capacity, highly efficient technologies are required. Although some advances have been made in technology generation, their assessment for delivery of crop–livestock systems has lagged behind. This chapter describes approaches that couple participatory methods with computer-based decision supporting tools to achieve an integrated assessment of crop–livestock systems in relation to climate change. Simulation results show that climate change will have an impact on crop–livestock production systems hence smallholder farmers' well-being will also affected. However, impacts will be varied, the three farm categories studied for Nkayi district will not be affected to the same degree due to agricultural management practices and wealth status. Tailoring adaptation packages to different farm categories can assist in developing context-specific technologies to buffer the impacts of climate change. Improved on-farm high-quality fodder production (inclusion of fodder and grain legume) and growing medium duration maize varieties would offset impacts of climate change by about 20%–30% for farmers with livestock. For those farmers without livestock (>40% of rural population) by diversifying on-farm crop production, improved management and growing medium duration crop varieties can reduce economic losses due to climate change from 25% to 19%. The integrated approach can evaluate impacts of climate change on both agricultural production and also human well-being, which is imperative in developing context-specific national adaptation strategies.

Conservation agriculture (CA) is a climate change adaptation measure being promoted for small-scale farmers in Zambia. CA is touted as a sustainable adaptation practice that can improve productivity in marginal farming areas. This chapter presents a study that analyzed CA practices in Kalomo District, Zambia, i.e., practices applied and associated challenges in management and implementation, from the perspective of agricultural extension workers and organizations promoting CA in the district. Results showed that farmers in Kalomo District do not apply all CA principles, owing to a number of limitations that range from governmental interventions, cultural beliefs, and poor access to extension services. These factors are likely to affect productivity and expose farmers to climate change and will need to be addressed.