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1. A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Author

Lazarus, J, Romero, D, Kopka, CJ, Karim, SA, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Almeida, G, Baptista-Leite, R, Barocas, JA, Barreto, ML, Bar-Yam, Y, Bassat, Q, Batista, C, Bazilian, M, Chiou, S-T, del Rio, C, Dore, GJ, Gao, GF, Gostin, LO, Hellard, M, Jimenez, JL, Kang, G, Lee, N, Maticic, M, McKee, M, Nsanzimana, S, Oliu-Barton, M, Pradelski, B, Pyzik, O, Rabin, K, Raina, S, Rashid, SF, Rathe, M, Saenz, R, Singh, S, Trock-Hempler, M, Villapol, S, Yap, P, Binagwaho, A, Kamarulzaman, A, El-Mohandes, A, Lazarus, J, Romero, D, Kopka, CJ, Karim, SA, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Almeida, G, Baptista-Leite, R, Barocas, JA, Barreto, ML, Bar-Yam, Y, Bassat, Q, Batista, C, Bazilian, M, Chiou, S-T, del Rio, C, Dore, GJ, Gao, GF, Gostin, LO, Hellard, M, Jimenez, JL, Kang, G, Lee, N, Maticic, M, McKee, M, Nsanzimana, S, Oliu-Barton, M, Pradelski, B, Pyzik, O, Rabin, K, Raina, S, Rashid, SF, Rathe, M, Saenz, R, Singh, S, Trock-Hempler, M, Villapol, S, Yap, P, Binagwaho, A, Kamarulzaman, A, and El-Mohandes, A

Abstract

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Published
2022

2. A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Author

Lazarus, JV, Romero, D, Kopka, CJ, Karim, SA, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Almeida, G, Baptista-Leite, R, Barocas, JA, Barreto, ML, Bar-Yam, Y, Bassat, Q, Batista, C, Bazilian, M, Chiou, S-T, Del Rio, C, Dore, GJ, Gao, GF, Gostin, LO, Hellard, M, Jimenez, JL, Kang, G, Lee, N, Matičič, M, McKee, M, Nsanzimana, S, Oliu-Barton, M, Pradelski, B, Pyzik, O, Rabin, K, Raina, S, Rashid, SF, Rathe, M, Saenz, R, Singh, S, Trock-Hempler, M, Villapol, S, Yap, P, Binagwaho, A, Kamarulzaman, A, El-Mohandes, A, COVID-19 Consensus Statement Panel, Lazarus, JV, Romero, D, Kopka, CJ, Karim, SA, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Almeida, G, Baptista-Leite, R, Barocas, JA, Barreto, ML, Bar-Yam, Y, Bassat, Q, Batista, C, Bazilian, M, Chiou, S-T, Del Rio, C, Dore, GJ, Gao, GF, Gostin, LO, Hellard, M, Jimenez, JL, Kang, G, Lee, N, Matičič, M, McKee, M, Nsanzimana, S, Oliu-Barton, M, Pradelski, B, Pyzik, O, Rabin, K, Raina, S, Rashid, SF, Rathe, M, Saenz, R, Singh, S, Trock-Hempler, M, Villapol, S, Yap, P, Binagwaho, A, Kamarulzaman, A, El-Mohandes, A, and COVID-19 Consensus Statement Panel

Abstract

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Published
2022

3. A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat

Author

Lazarus, J. V., Romero, D., Kopka, C. J., Karim, S. A., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Almeida, G., Baptista-Leite, R., Barocas, J. A., Barreto, M. L., Bar-Yam, Y., Bassat, Q., Batista, C., Bazilian, M., Chiou, S. -T., del Rio, C., Dore, G. J., Gao, G. F., Gostin, L. O., Hellard, M., Jimenez, J. L., Kang, G., Lee, N., Maticic, M., Mckee, M., Nsanzimana, S., Oliu-Barton, M., Pradelski, B., Pyzik, O., Rabin, K., Raina, S., Rashid, S. F., Rathe, M., Saenz, R., Singh, S., Trock-Hempler, M., Villapol, S., Yap, P., Binagwaho, A., Kamarulzaman, A., El-Mohandes, A., Barreto, M., Abdulla, S., Addleman, S., Aghayeva, G., Agius, R., Ahmed, M., Ramy, M. A., Aide, P., Aleman, S., Alfred, J. -P., Ali, S., Aliaga, J., Aloudat, T., Alqahtani, S. A., Al-Salman, J., Amuasi, J. H., Agrawal, A., Anwar, W., Araujo-Jorge, T., Artaza, O., Asadi, L., Awuku, Y., Baker, M., Barberia, L., Bascolo, E., Belcher, P., Bell, L., Benzaken, A., Bergholtz, E., Bhadelia, N., Bhan, A., Bilodeau, S., Bitran, R., Bluyssen, P., Bosman, A., Bozza, F. A., Brinkmann, M. M., Brown, A., Mellado, B., Bukusi, E., Bullen, C., Buonanno, G., Burgess, R., Butler, M., Byakika-Kibwika, P., Cabieses, B., Carlsson, G., Cascini, Fidelia, Chabala, C., Chakroun, M., Cheng, K. K., Chetty, A., Chumachenko, D., Consalves, G., Conway Morris, A., Cordie, A., Corrah, T., Crabtree-Ramirez, B., Dashdorj, N., Davidovitch, N., de Souza, L. E., Dhariwal, A. C., Druica, E., Ergonul, O., Erondu, N. A., Essar, M. Y., Ewing, A., Fanjul, G., Feierstein, D., Feigl-Ding, E., Figueroa, R., Figueroa, J. P., Fisher, D., Flores, W., Forero-Pena, D. A., Frumkin, H., Gamkrelidze, A., Gandhi, M., Garcia, P., Garcia-Basteiro, A. L., Garcia-Sastre, A., Garg, S., Gbeasor-Komlanvi, F. A., Gershenson, C., Gilada, I., Giovanella, L., Gonzalez, M., Green, M. S., Greenhalgh, T., Griffin, P., Griffin, S., Grinsztejn, B., Anand, T., Guerra, G., Guinto, R., Gujski, M., Guner, R., Hamdy, A., Hancean, M. -G., Haniffa, A., Hartigan-Go, K. Y., Hassan, H. K., Hay, S. I., Heino, M. T. J., Hel, Z., Hotez, P., Hu, J., Hukic, M., Ijsselmuiden, C., Iroko, D., Iskarous, M., Izugbara, C., Jacobs, C., Jadad, A. R., Jehan, F., Jordan, A., Jroundi, I., Kain, K., Kamberi, F., Karamov, E., Karan, A., Katz, R., Katzourakis, A., Kazembe, A., Khamis, F., Khamzayev, K., Khanyola, J., Khunti, K., Kiguli-Malwadde, E., Kim, W. J., Kirenga, B. J., Klimovsky, D., Kmush, B. L., Knaul, F., Kogevinas, M., Kristensen, F., Kumar, D., Kumar, R., Kvalsvig, A., Lacerda, M. V., Lal, A., Lawton, T., Lemery, J., Leonardi, A. J., Li, Y., Lottvall, J., Lounis, M., Maceira, D., Macintyre, C. R., Madani, A., Magiorkinis, G., Malekzadeh, R., Choisy, M., Marcelin, J. R., Marks, G. B., Marr, L., Marrazzo, J., Martina, A., Martin-Moreno, J. M., Mateos, C., Mayxay, M., Mazarati, J. B., Mboup, S., Mcdonald, J., Mcmillan, F., Mechili, E., Medici, A., Davis, S. L. M., Meier, P., Memish, Z. A., Menon, J., Menon, P., Mesiano-Crookston, J., Michie, S., Mikolasevic, I., Milicevic, O., Mishra, A. K., Mohamed, R., Mokdad, A. H., Monroy-Valle, M., Morawska, L., Moschos, S. A., Motawea, K., Mousavi, S. H., Mumtaz, G., Munene, P. K., Munoz Almagro, C., Muriuki, J., Muyingo, S., Naniche, D., Naylor, C. D., Ndembi, N., Nemec, J., Nesteruk, I., Ngaruiya, C., Nguyen, H., Nikolova, D., Nitzan, D., Norheim, O., Noushad, M., Ntoumi, F., Nyborg, G. A., Ochodo, E., Odabasi, Z., Okwen, M. P., Olivia, K., Ong, D. S. Y., Opara, I., Orozco, M., Oshitani, H., Pagel, C., Pai, M., Palsdottir, B., Papatheodoridis, G., Paraskevis, D., Leigh, J. P., Pecoul, B., Peichl, A., Perez-Then, E., Duc, P. P., Philippe, C., Pineda Rojas, A., Pladsen, C., Pozniak, A., Quiroga, R., Qureshi, H., Rampal, S., Ranney, M., Rathe, L., Ratzan, S., Raventos, H., Rees, H., Reis, R., Ricciardi, Walter, Rizk, N., Robalo, M., Robertson, E., Robinson, L., Rokx, C., Ros, T., Rottingen, J. -A., Rubin, M., Ruxrungtam, K., Sadirova, S., Saha, S., Salgado, N., Sanchez, L., Sangaramoorthy, T., Santamaria-Ulloa, C., Santos, R., Sawaf, B., Schneider, M. F., Schooley, R. T., Sener, A., Sepulveda, J., Shah, J., Shibani, M., Shoib, S., Sikazwe, I., Simaitis, A., Gill, A. S., Skhvitaridze, N., Sokolovic, M., Solomon, R., Solorzano, X., Springer, S. A., Srol, J., Staines, A., Stelfox, H. T., Strathdee, S., Sulaiman, L. H., Sutton, B., Svanaes, D., Swed, S., Sypsa, V., Sorensen, K., Tajudeen, R., Tan, A., Tang, J., Tanner, M., Sethi, T., Temmerman, M., Than, K. K., Tinto, H., Tometissi, S. P., Torres, I., Tshering, K. P., Tsiodras, S., Tsofa, B., Vahlne, A., Vargas, J. R., Bernal, I. D. V., Ventura, D., Vilasanjuan, R., Vipond, J., Wamala-Andersson, S., Wargocki, P., West, R., Weyand, A., White, T. M., Wolff, G., Yao, M., Yates, C. A., Yeboah, G., Yee-Sin, L., Yi, S., Teo, Y. -Y., Yong, P., Zamora-Mesia, V., Ovrehus, A., Cascini F. (ORCID:0000-0001-6499-0734), Ricciardi W. (ORCID:0000-0002-5655-688X), Lazarus, J. V., Romero, D., Kopka, C. J., Karim, S. A., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Almeida, G., Baptista-Leite, R., Barocas, J. A., Barreto, M. L., Bar-Yam, Y., Bassat, Q., Batista, C., Bazilian, M., Chiou, S. -T., del Rio, C., Dore, G. J., Gao, G. F., Gostin, L. O., Hellard, M., Jimenez, J. L., Kang, G., Lee, N., Maticic, M., Mckee, M., Nsanzimana, S., Oliu-Barton, M., Pradelski, B., Pyzik, O., Rabin, K., Raina, S., Rashid, S. F., Rathe, M., Saenz, R., Singh, S., Trock-Hempler, M., Villapol, S., Yap, P., Binagwaho, A., Kamarulzaman, A., El-Mohandes, A., Barreto, M., Abdulla, S., Addleman, S., Aghayeva, G., Agius, R., Ahmed, M., Ramy, M. A., Aide, P., Aleman, S., Alfred, J. -P., Ali, S., Aliaga, J., Aloudat, T., Alqahtani, S. A., Al-Salman, J., Amuasi, J. H., Agrawal, A., Anwar, W., Araujo-Jorge, T., Artaza, O., Asadi, L., Awuku, Y., Baker, M., Barberia, L., Bascolo, E., Belcher, P., Bell, L., Benzaken, A., Bergholtz, E., Bhadelia, N., Bhan, A., Bilodeau, S., Bitran, R., Bluyssen, P., Bosman, A., Bozza, F. A., Brinkmann, M. M., Brown, A., Mellado, B., Bukusi, E., Bullen, C., Buonanno, G., Burgess, R., Butler, M., Byakika-Kibwika, P., Cabieses, B., Carlsson, G., Cascini, Fidelia, Chabala, C., Chakroun, M., Cheng, K. K., Chetty, A., Chumachenko, D., Consalves, G., Conway Morris, A., Cordie, A., Corrah, T., Crabtree-Ramirez, B., Dashdorj, N., Davidovitch, N., de Souza, L. E., Dhariwal, A. C., Druica, E., Ergonul, O., Erondu, N. A., Essar, M. Y., Ewing, A., Fanjul, G., Feierstein, D., Feigl-Ding, E., Figueroa, R., Figueroa, J. P., Fisher, D., Flores, W., Forero-Pena, D. A., Frumkin, H., Gamkrelidze, A., Gandhi, M., Garcia, P., Garcia-Basteiro, A. L., Garcia-Sastre, A., Garg, S., Gbeasor-Komlanvi, F. A., Gershenson, C., Gilada, I., Giovanella, L., Gonzalez, M., Green, M. S., Greenhalgh, T., Griffin, P., Griffin, S., Grinsztejn, B., Anand, T., Guerra, G., Guinto, R., Gujski, M., Guner, R., Hamdy, A., Hancean, M. -G., Haniffa, A., Hartigan-Go, K. Y., Hassan, H. K., Hay, S. I., Heino, M. T. J., Hel, Z., Hotez, P., Hu, J., Hukic, M., Ijsselmuiden, C., Iroko, D., Iskarous, M., Izugbara, C., Jacobs, C., Jadad, A. R., Jehan, F., Jordan, A., Jroundi, I., Kain, K., Kamberi, F., Karamov, E., Karan, A., Katz, R., Katzourakis, A., Kazembe, A., Khamis, F., Khamzayev, K., Khanyola, J., Khunti, K., Kiguli-Malwadde, E., Kim, W. J., Kirenga, B. J., Klimovsky, D., Kmush, B. L., Knaul, F., Kogevinas, M., Kristensen, F., Kumar, D., Kumar, R., Kvalsvig, A., Lacerda, M. V., Lal, A., Lawton, T., Lemery, J., Leonardi, A. J., Li, Y., Lottvall, J., Lounis, M., Maceira, D., Macintyre, C. R., Madani, A., Magiorkinis, G., Malekzadeh, R., Choisy, M., Marcelin, J. R., Marks, G. B., Marr, L., Marrazzo, J., Martina, A., Martin-Moreno, J. M., Mateos, C., Mayxay, M., Mazarati, J. B., Mboup, S., Mcdonald, J., Mcmillan, F., Mechili, E., Medici, A., Davis, S. L. M., Meier, P., Memish, Z. A., Menon, J., Menon, P., Mesiano-Crookston, J., Michie, S., Mikolasevic, I., Milicevic, O., Mishra, A. K., Mohamed, R., Mokdad, A. H., Monroy-Valle, M., Morawska, L., Moschos, S. A., Motawea, K., Mousavi, S. H., Mumtaz, G., Munene, P. K., Munoz Almagro, C., Muriuki, J., Muyingo, S., Naniche, D., Naylor, C. D., Ndembi, N., Nemec, J., Nesteruk, I., Ngaruiya, C., Nguyen, H., Nikolova, D., Nitzan, D., Norheim, O., Noushad, M., Ntoumi, F., Nyborg, G. A., Ochodo, E., Odabasi, Z., Okwen, M. P., Olivia, K., Ong, D. S. Y., Opara, I., Orozco, M., Oshitani, H., Pagel, C., Pai, M., Palsdottir, B., Papatheodoridis, G., Paraskevis, D., Leigh, J. P., Pecoul, B., Peichl, A., Perez-Then, E., Duc, P. P., Philippe, C., Pineda Rojas, A., Pladsen, C., Pozniak, A., Quiroga, R., Qureshi, H., Rampal, S., Ranney, M., Rathe, L., Ratzan, S., Raventos, H., Rees, H., Reis, R., Ricciardi, Walter, Rizk, N., Robalo, M., Robertson, E., Robinson, L., Rokx, C., Ros, T., Rottingen, J. -A., Rubin, M., Ruxrungtam, K., Sadirova, S., Saha, S., Salgado, N., Sanchez, L., Sangaramoorthy, T., Santamaria-Ulloa, C., Santos, R., Sawaf, B., Schneider, M. F., Schooley, R. T., Sener, A., Sepulveda, J., Shah, J., Shibani, M., Shoib, S., Sikazwe, I., Simaitis, A., Gill, A. S., Skhvitaridze, N., Sokolovic, M., Solomon, R., Solorzano, X., Springer, S. A., Srol, J., Staines, A., Stelfox, H. T., Strathdee, S., Sulaiman, L. H., Sutton, B., Svanaes, D., Swed, S., Sypsa, V., Sorensen, K., Tajudeen, R., Tan, A., Tang, J., Tanner, M., Sethi, T., Temmerman, M., Than, K. K., Tinto, H., Tometissi, S. P., Torres, I., Tshering, K. P., Tsiodras, S., Tsofa, B., Vahlne, A., Vargas, J. R., Bernal, I. D. V., Ventura, D., Vilasanjuan, R., Vipond, J., Wamala-Andersson, S., Wargocki, P., West, R., Weyand, A., White, T. M., Wolff, G., Yao, M., Yates, C. A., Yeboah, G., Yee-Sin, L., Yi, S., Teo, Y. -Y., Yong, P., Zamora-Mesia, V., Ovrehus, A., Cascini F. (ORCID:0000-0001-6499-0734), and Ricciardi W. (ORCID:0000-0002-5655-688X)

Abstract

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Published
2022

4. Time to establish an international vaccine candidate pool for potential highly infectious respiratory disease: a community's view.

Author

Yao L, Chemaitelly H, Goldman E, Gudina EK, Khalil A, Ahmed R, James AB, Roca A, Fallah MP, Macnab A, Cho WC, Eikelboom J, Qamar FN, Kremsner P, Oliu-Barton M, Sisa I, Tadesse BT, Marks F, Wang L, Kim JH, Meng X, Wang Y, Fly AD, Wang CY, Day SW, Howard SC, Graff JC, Maida M, Ray K, Franco-Paredes C, Mashe T, Ngongo N, Kaseya J, Ndembi N, Hu Y, Bottazzi ME, Hotez PJ, Ishii KJ, Wang G, Sun D, Aleya L, and Gu W

Abstract

In counteracting highly infectious and disruptive respiratory diseases such as COVID-19, vaccination remains the primary and safest way to prevent disease, reduce the severity of illness, and save lives. Unfortunately, vaccination is often not the first intervention deployed for a new pandemic, as it takes time to develop and test vaccines, and confirmation of safety requires a period of observation after vaccination to detect potential late-onset vaccine-associated adverse events. In the meantime, nonpharmacologic public health interventions such as mask-wearing and social distancing can provide some degree of protection. As climate change, with its environmental impacts on pathogen evolution and international mobility continue to rise, highly infectious respiratory diseases will likely emerge more frequently and their impact is expected to be substantial. How quickly a safe and efficacious vaccine can be deployed against rising infectious respiratory diseases may be the most important challenge that humanity will face in the near future. While some organizations are engaged in addressing the World Health Organization's "blueprint for priority diseases", the lack of worldwide preparedness, and the uncertainty around universal vaccine availability, remain major concerns. We therefore propose the establishment of an international candidate vaccine pool repository for potential respiratory diseases, supported by multiple stakeholders and countries that contribute facilities, technologies, and other medical and financial resources. The types and categories of candidate vaccines can be determined based on information from previous pandemics and epidemics. Each participant country or region can focus on developing one or a few vaccine types or categories, together covering most if not all possible potential infectious diseases. The safety of these vaccines can be tested using animal models. Information for effective candidates that can be potentially applied to humans will then be shared across all participants. When a new pandemic arises, these pre-selected and tested vaccines can be quickly tested in RCTs for human populations., Competing Interests: Peter Hotez is a co-inventor of a COVID-19 recombinant protein vaccine technology owned by Baylor College of Medicine (BCM) that was recently licensed by BCM non-exclusively and with no patent restrictions to several companies committed to advance vaccines for low- and middle-income countries. The co-inventors have no involvement in license negotiations conducted by BCM. Similar to other research universities, a long-standing BCM policy provides its faculty and staff, who make discoveries that result in a commercial license, a share of any royalty income, according to BCM policy. Jerome H. Kim services as the consultant for SK bioscience and Moderna. Other authors declare no competing financial interests.

Published
2023
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5. A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Author

Lazarus JV, Romero D, Kopka CJ, Karim SA, Abu-Raddad LJ, Almeida G, Baptista-Leite R, Barocas JA, Barreto ML, Bar-Yam Y, Bassat Q, Batista C, Bazilian M, Chiou ST, Del Rio C, Dore GJ, Gao GF, Gostin LO, Hellard M, Jimenez JL, Kang G, Lee N, Matičič M, McKee M, Nsanzimana S, Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski B, Pyzik O, Rabin K, Raina S, Rashid SF, Rathe M, Saenz R, Singh S, Trock-Hempler M, Villapol S, Yap P, Binagwaho A, Kamarulzaman A, and El-Mohandes A

Subjects
Humans, Government, Pandemics economics, Pandemics prevention & control, Organizations, COVID-19 Vaccines, Communication, Health Education, Health Policy, Public Opinion, COVID-19 economics, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 prevention & control, Delphi Technique, Public Health economics, Public Health methods, International Cooperation
Abstract

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic 1,2 . Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches 1 , while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach 2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities 3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Published
2022
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6. Climate club 'green certificate' would boost membership.

Author

Oliu-Barton M and Tagliapietra S

Subjects
Certification, Global Warming legislation & jurisprudence, Global Warming prevention & control, International Cooperation legislation & jurisprudence, Organizations legislation & jurisprudence, Organizations organization & administration
Published
2022
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7. The effect of COVID certificates on vaccine uptake, health outcomes, and the economy.

Author

Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski BSR, Woloszko N, Guetta-Jeanrenaud L, Aghion P, Artus P, Fontanet A, Martin P, and Wolff GB

Subjects
Communicable Disease Control, France epidemiology, Germany epidemiology, Humans, Italy epidemiology, Outcome Assessment, Health Care, Pandemics prevention & control, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 prevention & control, Vaccines
Abstract

In the COVID-19 pandemic many countries required COVID certificates, proving vaccination, recovery, or a recent negative test, to access public and private venues. We estimate their effect on vaccine uptake for France, Germany, and Italy using counterfactuals constructed via innovation diffusion theory. The announcement of COVID certificates during summer 2021 were associated - although causality cannot be directly inferred - with increased vaccine uptake in France of 13.0 (95% CI 9.7-14.9) percentage points (p.p.) of the total population until the end of the year, in Germany 6.2 (2.6-6.9) p.p., and in Italy 9.7 (5.4-12.3) p.p. Based on these estimates, an additional 3979 (3453-4298) deaths in France, 1133 (-312-1358) in Germany, and 1331 (502-1794) in Italy were averted; and gross domestic product (GDP) losses of €6.0 (5.9-6.1) billion in France, €1.4 (1.3-1.5) billion in Germany, and €2.1 (2.0-2.2) billion in Italy were prevented. Notably, in France, the application of COVID certificates averted high intensive care unit occupancy levels where prior lockdowns were instated., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Published
2022
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8. Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines.

Author

Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski BSR, Algan Y, Baker MG, Binagwaho A, Dore GJ, El-Mohandes A, Fontanet A, Peichl A, Priesemann V, Wolff GB, Yamey G, and Lazarus JV

Subjects
COVID-19 epidemiology, Disease Eradication methods, Humans, Pandemics prevention & control, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, COVID-19 prevention & control, COVID-19 Vaccines
Abstract

There is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than have mitigation strategies throughout the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines that offer high protection against severe forms of COVID-19, and increasing vaccination coverage, policy makers have had to reassess the trade-offs between different options. The desirability and feasibility of eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other strategies should also be re-evaluated from the perspective of different fields, including epidemiology, public health, and economics. To end the pandemic as soon as possible-be it through elimination or reaching an acceptable endemic level-several key topics have emerged centring around coordination, both locally and internationally, and vaccine distribution. Without coordination it is difficult if not impossible to sustain elimination, which is particularly relevant in highly connected regions, such as Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain with respect to equitable distribution, and the risk of the emergence of new variants of concern. Looking forward, it is crucial to overcome the dichotomy between elimination and mitigation, and to jointly define a long-term objective that can accommodate different political and societal realities., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests MGB is a member of the New Zealand Ministry of Health's COVID-19 technical advisory group and took a leading role in formulating New Zealand's elimination strategy. AF is a member of the French COVID-19 Scientific Council, and a member of the French COVID-19 Vaccine Strategy Committee. GBW is a member of the G20 High Level Independent Panel on Financing the Global Commons for Pandemic Preparedness and Response. JVL is a member of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Public Health Taskforce. All other authors declare no competing interests. Editorial note: the Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published text., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Published
2022
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9. Unclear conclusions on SARS-CoV-2 elimination versus mitigation - Authors' reply.

Author

Oliu-Barton M, Pradelski BSR, Aghion P, Artus P, Kickbusch I, Lazarus JV, and Vanderslott S

Subjects
Humans, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2
Abstract

Competing Interests: IK is a member of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board. JVL is a member of the Lancet COVID-19 Commission Public Health Taskforce. SV is a member of Team Halo (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the UN, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance). All other authors declare no competing interests.

Published
2021
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10. Green zoning: An effective policy tool to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.

Author

Oliu-Barton M and Pradelski BSR

Subjects
France, Humans, Policy, SARS-CoV-2, Spain, COVID-19, Pandemics prevention & control
Abstract

Green zoning has emerged as a widely used policy response to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic. 'Green zones'-areas where the virus is under control based on a uniform set of conditions-can progressively return to normal economic and social activity levels, and mobility between them is permitted. By contrast, stricter public health measures are in place in 'red zones', and mobility between red and green zones is restricted. France and Spain were among the first countries to introduce green zoning in April 2020. Subsequently, more and more countries followed suit and the European Commission advocated for the implementation of a European green zoning strategy, which has been supported by the EU member states. While there remain coordination problems, green zoning has proven to be an effective strategy for containing the spread of the virus and limiting its negative economic and social impact. This strategy should provide important lessons and prove useful in future outbreaks. Research in epidemiology indicates that thoroughly implemented and operationalised green zoning can prevent the spread of a transmittable disease that is poorly understood, highly virulent, and potentially highly lethal. Finally, there is strong evidence that green zoning can reduce economic and societal damage as it avoids worst-in-class measures., Competing Interests: Declarations of Competing interest None., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Published
2021
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11. Vaccinate fast but leave no one behind: a call to action for COVID-19 vaccination in Spain.

Author

Lazarus JV, Bassat Q, Crespo J, Fanjul G, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Hoyos ML, Mateos C, Gutierrez JM, Naniche D, Oliu-Barton M, Rabin KH, Vilasanjuan R, Villapol S, and Martin-Moreno JM

Abstract

During the first five months of 2021, Spain's COVID-19 vaccination campaign progressed slowly and failed to reach marginalised populations. Here, we discuss how, despite recent improvements, it remains important to further engage key stakeholders to ensure nobody is left behind., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

Published
2021
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13. A formula for the value of a stochastic game.

Author

Attia L and Oliu-Barton M

Abstract

In 1953, Lloyd Shapley defined the model of stochastic games, which were the first general dynamic model of a game to be defined, and proved that competitive stochastic games have a discounted value. In 1982, Jean-François Mertens and Abraham Neyman proved that competitive stochastic games admit a robust solution concept, the value, which is equal to the limit of the discounted values as the discount rate goes to 0. Both contributions were published in PNAS. In the present paper, we provide a tractable formula for the value of competitive stochastic games.

Published
2019
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