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The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content ($$\Delta$$ Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level ($$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling $$\hbox {CO}_{{2}}$$ CO 2 . Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean $$\Delta \zeta$$ Δ ζ and $$\Delta$$ Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs.

Using an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in an idealized climate change experiment, this study quantifies the contributions to ocean heat uptake (OHU) from ocean physical parameterizations and resolved dynamical processes operating at different scales. Analysis of heat budget diagnostics reveals a leading-order global heat balance in the subsurface upper ocean in a steady state between the large-scale circulation warming it and mesoscale processes cooling it, and shows that there are positive contributions from processes on all scales to the subsurface OHU during climate change. There is better agreement among the AOGCMs in the net OHU than in the individual scales/processes contributing to it. In the upper ocean and at high latitudes, OHU is dominated by small-scale diapycnal processes. Below 400 m, OHU is dominated by the superresidual transport, representing large-scale ocean dynamics combined with all parameterized mesoscale and submesoscale eddy effects. Weakening of the AMOC leads to less heat convergence in the subpolar North Atlantic and less heat divergence at lower latitudes, with a small overall effect on the net Atlantic heat content. At low latitudes, the dominance of advective heat redistribution is contrary to the diffusive OHU mechanism assumed by the commonly used upwelling-diffusion model. Using a density water-mass framework, it is found that most of the OHU occurs along isopycnal directions. This feature of OHU is used to accurately reconstruct the global vertical ocean warming profile from the surface heat flux anomalies, supporting advective (rather than diffusive) models of OHU and sea level rise.

While the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken under increasing GHGs, it is unclear how it would respond to stabilization of global warming of 1.5 or 2.0 °C, the Paris Agreement temperature targets, or 3.0 °C, the expected warming by 2100 under current emission reduction policies. On the basis of stabilized warming simulations with two Earth System Models, we find that, after temperature stabilization, the AMOC declines for 5–10 years followed by a 150-year recovery to a level that is approximately independent of the considered stabilization scenario. The AMOC recovery has important implications for North Atlantic steric sea-level rise, which by 2600 is simulated to be 25–31% less than the global mean, and for North Atlantic surface temperatures, which continue to increase despite global mean surface temperature stabilization. These results show that substantial ongoing climate trends are likely to occur after global mean temperature has stabilized. Warming is predicted to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Simulated temperature stabilization at Paris Agreement targets shows recovery to a level independent of the target, with continued North Atlantic warming and North Atlantic sea-level rise lower than the global mean.

The most prominent feature of the time-mean global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is the Atlantic MOC (AMOC). However, interannual variability of the global MOC is shown here to be dominated by Pacific MOC (PMOC) variability over the full depth of the ocean at most latitudes. This dominance of interannual PMOC variability is robust across modern climate models and an observational state estimate. PMOC interannual variability has large-scale organization, its most prominent feature being a cross-equatorial cell spanning the tropics. Idealized experiments show that this variability is almost entirely wind driven. Interannual anomalies of zonal mean zonal wind stress produce zonally integrated Ekman transport anomalies that are larger in the Pacific Ocean than in the Atlantic Ocean, simply because the Pacific is wider than the Atlantic at most latitudes. This contrast in Ekman transport variability implies greater variability in the near-surface branch of the PMOC when compared with the near-surface branch of the AMOC. These near-surface variations in turn drive compensating flow anomalies below the Ekman layer. Because the baroclinic adjustment time is longer than a year at most latitudes, these compensating flow anomalies have baroclinic structure spanning the full depth of the ocean. Additional analysis reveals that interannual PMOC variations are the dominant contribution to interannual variations of the global meridional heat transport. There is also evidence of interaction between interannual PMOC variability and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

Using a set of experiments with an eddy-parameterizing ocean model, it is found that the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensifies with the decrease of the density-dependent mesoscale eddy transfer. However, the intensification is weaker than that suggested by simple scaling relationships previously applied. Perturbing the model control sea surface temperature (SST) to mimic its change in response to doubling of CO2, it is shown that the associated ocean heat uptake (OHU) increases and penetrates deeper with the decrease of the mesoscale eddy transfer. It is shown that the OHU correlates with the AMOC strength, and both these quantities are affected by the mesoscale eddy transfer. Passive tracer experiments in the ocean model provide a possible explanation for the finding in coupled-model climate simulations that the ocean heat uptake efficiency (OHUE) increases with the AMOC strength and decreases with the eddy energy generated from the mean state. It is also found that the OHU in the SST-perturbation experiments scales with the net downward advection of heat. The contribution of the AMOC to the downward heat flux is illustrated using a streamfunction in depth–temperature space.

A rise in global mean sea level is a robust feature of projected anthropogenic climate change using state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, there is considerable disagreement over the more policy-relevant regional patterns of sea level rise. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to improve our understanding of the mechanisms controlling regional and dynamic sea level change. In FAFMIP, identical air-sea buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations are applied to an ensemble of different AOGCMs, to sample the uncertainty associated with model structure and physical processes. Our novel implementation applies FAFMIP perturbations to an ensemble of OGCMs. This framework enables an estimate of the unknown atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, by comparing the coupled and ocean-only response to surface flux perturbations.Comparing the response to idealised FAFMIP forcing with more realistic, increasing CO2 forcing, much of the spread in regional sea level projections for the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean arises from ocean model structural differences. Ocean-only simulations indicate that only a small proportion of this spread is due to differences in the atmosphere-ocean feedback. Novel tendency diagnostics indicate the relative effect of resolved advection, parametrised eddies, and dianeutral mixing on regional and dynamic sea level change. This study helps to reduce uncertainty in regional sea level projections by refining our estimates of atmosphere-ocean feedbacks and developing our understanding of the physical processes controlling sea level change.

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and their coupling, as well as various aspects of model development, including tuning, optimization and a reproducibility strategy. We also document the stability of the model using a long control simulation, quantify the model's ability to reproduce large scale features of the historical climate, and evaluate the response of the model to external forcing. CanESM5 is comprised of three dimensional atmosphere (T63 spectral resolution/2.8°) and ocean (nominally 1°) general circulation models, a sea ice model, a land surface scheme, and explicit land and ocean carbon cycle models. The model features relatively coarse resolution and high throughput, which facilitates the production of large ensembles. CanESM5 has a notably higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.7 K) than its predecessor CanESM2 (3.8 K), which we briefly discuss, along with simulated changes over the historical period. CanESM5 simulations are contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and will be employed for climate science and service applications in Canada.

The ocean’s meridional overturning circulation is closed by the upwelling of dense, carbon-rich waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. It has been proposed that upwelling in this region is driven by strong westerly winds, implying that the intensification of Southern Ocean winds in recent decades may have enhanced the rate of upwelling, potentially affecting the global overturning circulation. However, there is no consensus on the sensitivity of upwelling to winds or on the nature of the connection between Southern Ocean processes and the global overturning circulation. In this study, the sensitivity of the overturning circulation to changes in Southern Ocean westerly wind stress is investigated using an eddy-permitting ocean–sea ice model. In addition to a suite of standard circulation metrics, an energy analysis is used to aid dynamical interpretation of the model response. Increased Southern Ocean wind stress enhances the upper cell of the overturning circulation through creation of available potential energy in the Southern Hemisphere, associated with stronger upwelling of deep water. Poleward shifts in the Southern Ocean westerlies lead to a complicated transient response, with the formation of bottom water induced by increased polynya activity in the Weddell Sea and a weakening of the upper overturning cell in the Northern Hemisphere. The energetic consequences of the upper overturning cell response indicate an interhemispheric connection to the input of available potential energy in the Northern Hemisphere.

The net heat uptake by the ocean in a changing climate involves small imbalances between the advective and diffusive processes that transport heat vertically. Generally, it is necessary to rely on global climate models to study these processes in detail. In the present study, it is shown that a key component of the vertical heat flux, namely that associated with the large-scale mean vertical circulation, can be diagnosed over extra-tropical regions from global observational data sets. This component is estimated based on the vertical velocity obtained from the geostrophic vorticity balance, combined with estimates of absolute geostrophic flow. Results are compared with the output of a non-eddy resolving, coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Reasonable agreement is found in the latitudinal distribution of the vertical heat flux, as well as in the area-integrated flux below about 250 m depth. The correspondence with the coupled model deteriorates sharply at depths shallower than 250 m due to the omission of equatorial regions from the calculation. The vertical heat flux due to the mean circulation is found to be dominated globally by the downward contribution from the Southern Hemisphere, in particular the Southern Ocean. This is driven by the Ekman vertical velocity which induces an upward transport of seawater that is cold relative to the horizontal average at a given depth. The results indicate that the dominant characteristics of the vertical transport of heat due to the mean circulation can be inferred from simple linear vorticity dynamics over much of the ocean.

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.

We estimate changes in the historical ocean carbon sink and their uncertainty using an ocean biogeochemical model driven with wind forcing from six different reanalyses and using two different eddy parameterization schemes. First, we quantify wind-induced changes over the extended period from 1871 to 2010 using the 20th Century Reanalysis winds. Consistent with previous shorter-term studies, we find that the wind changes act to reduce the ocean carbon sink, but the wind-induced trends are subject to large uncertainties. One major source of uncertainty is the parameterization of mesoscale eddies in our coarse resolution simulations. Trends in the Southern Ocean residual meridional overturning circulation and the globally integrated surface carbon flux over 1950 to 2010 are about 2.5 times smaller when using a variable eddy transfer coefficient than when using a constant coefficient in this parameterization. A second major source of uncertainty arises from disagreement on historical wind trends. By comparing six reanalyses over 1980 to 2010, we show that there are statistically significant differences in estimated historical wind trends, which vary in both sign and magnitude amongst the products. Through simulations forced with these reanalysis winds, we show that the influence of historical wind changes on ocean carbon uptake is highly uncertain, and the resulting trends depend on the choice of surface wind product.

The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200–700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.

It has been estimated that much of the wind energy input to the ocean general circulation is removed by mesoscale eddies via baroclinic instability. While the fate of this energy remains a subject of research, arguments have been presented suggesting that a fraction of it may get transferred to lee waves that, upon breaking, result in bottom-enhanced diapycnal mixing. Here the authors propose several parameterizations of this process and explore their impact in a low-resolution ocean–climate model, focusing on their impact on the abyssal meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of Antarctic Bottom Water. This study shows that, when the eddy energy is allowed to maintain diapycnal mixing, the abyssal MOC generally intensifies with increasing wind energy input to the ocean. In such a case, the whole system is driven by the wind: wind steepens isopycnals and generates eddies, and the (parameterized) eddies generate small-scale mixing, driving the MOC. It is also demonstrated that if the model diapycnal diffusivity, eddy transfer coefficient, and surface climate are decoupled from the winds, then stronger wind stress in the Southern Ocean may lead to a weaker MOC in the abyss—in line with previous results. A simple scaling theory, describing the response of the abyssal MOC strength to wind energy input, is developed, providing a better insight on the numerical results.

[1] The role of changing vertical eddy heat flux on Southern Ocean heat uptake is investigated in an idealized eddy-permitting ocean model. Enhanced air-sea heat flux drives deep-reaching southern warming, due to a reduction in the isopycnal meridional temperature gradient and therefore decreased upward eddy heat flux. This mechanism is qualitatively similar in models with either permitted or parameterized eddies, due to its dependence on the isopycnal temperature gradient rather than the dynamical response of the eddy field. In contrast, increased wind stress drives mid-depth Southern Ocean cooling through an enhancement of the eddy field and resultant eddy heat divergence. The transient cooling extends over multiple decades while the mean flow adjusts to balance the faster eddy response. This wind-driven cooling mechanism has not been captured by coarse resolution models with fixed eddy parameterizations and is a possible candidate for the recent cooling observed in the Southern Ocean.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is formed in a few locations around the Antarctic continent, each source with distinct temperature and salinity. After formation, the different AABW varieties cross the Southern Ocean and flow into the subtropical abyssal basins. It is shown here, using the analysis of Lagrangian trajectories within the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) model, that the pathways of the different sources of AABW have to a large extent amalgamated into one pathway by the time it reaches 31°S in the deep subtropical basins. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current appears to play an important role in the amalgamation, as 70% of the AABW completes at least one circumpolar loop before reaching the subtropical basins. This amalgamation of AABW pathways suggests that on decadal to centennial time scales, changes to properties and formation rates in any of the AABW source regions will be conveyed to all three subtropical abyssal basins. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

The North Atlantic climate response to the catastrophic drainage of proglacial Lake Agassiz into the Labrador Sea is analyzed with coarse and ocean eddy-permitting versions of a global coupled climate model. The North Atlantic climate response is qualitatively consistent in that a large-scale cooling is simulated regardless of the model resolution or region of freshwater discharge. However, the magnitude and duration of the North Atlantic climate response is found to be sensitive to model resolution and the location of freshwater forcing. In particular, the long-term entrainment of freshwater along the boundary at higher resolution and its gradual, partially eddy-driven escape into the interior leads to low-salinity anomalies persisting in the subpolar Atlantic for decades longer. As a result, the maximum decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the ocean meridional heat transport (MHT) is amplified by about a factor of 2 at ocean eddy-permitting resolution, and the recovery is delayed relative to the coarse grid model. This, in turn, increases the long-term cooling in the high-resolution simulations. A decomposition of the MHT response reveals an increased role for transients and the horizontal mean component of MHT at higher resolution. With fixed wind stress curl, it is a stronger response of bottom pressure torque to the freshwater forcing at higher resolution that leads to a larger anomaly of the depth-integrated circulation.

[1] An idealized climate change simulation is used to investigate the energetics of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at the stages of its weakening and recovery. There is a good correlation between the strength of the AMOC and the available potential energy (APE) in the upper 3 km of the ocean, integrated north of 50°N or globally, both during the weakening and recovery. Buoyancy forcing is important at both stages. In the Southern Ocean, the APE gradually builds up and correlates with the depth of pycnocline in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that mechanical forcing plays an important role in the recovery of the AMOC.

This study uses a global ocean eddy-permitting climate model to explore the export of abyssal water from the Southern Ocean and its sensitivity to projected twenty-first-century poleward-intensifying Southern Ocean wind stress. The abyssal flow pathways and transport are investigated using a combination of Lagrangian and Eulerian techniques. In an Eulerian format, the equator- and poleward flows within similar abyssal density classes are increased by the wind stress changes, making it difficult to explicitly diagnose changes in the abyssal export in a meridional overturning circulation framework. Lagrangian particle analyses are used to identify the major export pathways of Southern Ocean abyssal waters and reveal an increase in the number of particles exported to the subtropics from source regions around Antarctica in response to the wind forcing. Both the Lagrangian particle and Eulerian analyses identify transients as playing a key role in the abyssal export of water from the Southern Ocean. Wind-driven modifications to the potential energy component of the vorticity balance in the abyss are also found to impact the Southern Ocean barotropic circulation.

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sea-level rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, but elsewhere heat is actively redistributed towards lower latitude. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

The meridional ocean heat transport (MOHT), its seasonal variability, and projected changes simulated by the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) are presented. The global mean MOHT is within the uncertainty of the observational estimates. However, a correct simulation of the MOHT for individual ocean basins is more challenging, and the Atlantic MOHT south of 30°N is underestimated. The partitioning of the MOHT into the overturning and gyre components is generally consistent with such partitioning in an observationally optimized ocean model. At low latitudes, the time-mean MOHT is dominated by its overturning component, whereas in the Southern Ocean and, especially, in the subpolar North Atlantic, it is the gyre component that plays a more important role. In the projected warmer climates, CanESM2 simulates a weakening of the poleward MOHT essentially in both hemispheres. The projected MOHT changes are largely determined by the overturning component, except in the subpolar Atlantic where it is dominated by the gyre component. Consistent with (the limited number of) previous studies, the seasonal variability of the MOHT is large and is mostly driven by the seasonal variability of the meridional Ekman transport. In the simulated warmer climates, the seasonal cycle of the MOHT is projected to change, mostly in the tropics and also in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The eddy contribution to the MOHT is broadly consistent with that in the observationally optimized eddy-permitting model. However, in the tropics a significant fraction of the eddy energy is converted back to the mean circulation, and the heat transports due to the parameterized and permitted eddies differ.

Meridional heat transport (MHT) in the Southern Ocean (SO) and its components are analyzed with two eddy-permitting climate models. The two models present a consistent picture of the MHT response to projected twenty-first-century changes in SO winds. In agreement with a recent analysis based on an ocean data synthesis product, much of the MHT in the SO is found to be due to the time-mean fields of meridional velocity and temperature. The change in the net MHT tends to be small relative to the interannual variability at most SO latitudes. However, both models exhibit significant changes at most latitudes south of 30°S in individual components of MHT. A simple framework wherein changes in the eddy and mean heat transports tend to compensate each other is not supported by the authors’ results. Instead, the MHT response is composed of sizeable contributions from essentially all of the MHT components, with the eddy and mean heat transports often having the same sign.

Several recent studies have shown that ocean western boundaries are the primary regions of eddy energy dissipation. Globally, the eddy energy sinks have been estimated to integrate to about 0.2 TW. This is a sizable fraction of the tidal energy dissipation in the deep oceanic interior, estimated at about 1.0 TW and contributing to diapycnal mixing. The authors conduct sensitivity experiments with an ocean general circulation model assuming that the eddy energy is scattered into high-wavenumber vertical modes, resulting in energy dissipation and locally enhanced diapycnal mixing. When only the tidal energy dissipation maintains diapycnal mixing, the overturning circulation, and stratification in the deep ocean are too weak. With the addition of the eddy dissipation, the deep-ocean thermal structure becomes closer to that observed and the overturning circulation and stratification in the abyss become stronger. Furthermore, the mixing associated with the eddy dissipation can, on its own, drive a relatively strong overturning. The stratification and overturning in the deep ocean are sensitive to the vertical structure of diapycnal mixing. When most of this energy dissipates within 300 m above the bottom, the abyssal overturning and stratification are too weak. Allowing for the dissipation to penetrate higher in the water column, such as suggested by recent observations, results in stronger stratification and meridional circulation. Zonal circulation is also affected. In particular, the Drake Passage transport becomes closer to its observational estimates with the increase in the vertical scale for turbulence above topography. Consistent with some theoretical models, the Drake Passage transport increases with the increase in the mean upper-ocean diffusivity.

Changes in the Southern Ocean lower-limb overturning circulation are analyzed using a set of climate models. In agreement with some recently developed theoretical models, it is found that the overturning can be strongly affected by winds. In particular, the simulated strengthening of large-scale southward transport in the abyss is explicitly driven by zonal wind stress. However, there is a considerable range among the climate models in their projected changes of Southern Ocean wind stress. Furthermore, the strengthening of large-scale southward transport tends to be compensated by eddy-induced northward flows in the abyss, particularly at eddy-permitting resolution. As a result, the net Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) export may only be weakly affected. However, none of the models considered accounts for the possibility that a fraction of the eddy kinetic energy may be converted to diapycnal mixing. If this were the case, the presented energetic arguments suggest that stronger Southern Ocean winds would result in a stronger AABW transport.

Four versions of the same global climate model, one with horizontal resolution of 1.8° × 3.6° and three with 0.2° × 0.4°, are employed to evaluate the role of ocean bottom topography and viscosity on the spatial structure of the deep circulation. This study is motivated by several recent observational studies that find that subsurface floats injected near the western boundary of the Labrador Sea most often do not continuously follow the deep western boundary current (DWBC), in contrast to the traditional view that the deep water formed in the North Atlantic predominantly follows the DWBC. It is found that, with imposed large viscosity values, the model reproduces the traditional view. However, as viscosity is reduced and the model bathymetry resolution increased, much of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) separates from the western boundary and enters the low-latitude Atlantic via interior pathways distinct from the DWBC. It is shown that bottom pressure torques play an important role in maintaining these interior NADW outflows.

Recent results based on models using prescribed surface wind stress forcing have suggested that the net freshwater transport Σ by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) into the Atlantic basin is a good indicator of the multiple-equilibria regime. By means of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, this study shows that this scalar Σ cannot capture the connection between the properties of the steady state and the impact of the wind stress feedback on the evolution of perturbations. This implies that, when interpreting the observed value of Σ, the position of the present-day climate is systematically biased toward the multiple-equilibria regime. The results show, however, that the stabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback on the MOC is restricted to a narrow window of freshwater fluxes, located in the vicinity of the state characterized by a zero freshwater flux divergence over the Atlantic basin. If the position of the present-day climate is farther away from this state, then wind stress feedbacks are unable to exert a persistent effect on the modern MOC. This is because the stabilizing influence of the shallow reverse cell situated south of the equator during the off state rapidly dominates over the destabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback when the freshwater forcing gets stronger. Under glacial climate conditions by contrast, a weaker sensitivity with an opposite effect is found. This is ultimately due to the relatively large sea ice extent of the glacial climate, which implies that, during the off state, the horizontal redistribution of fresh waters by the subpolar gyre does not favor the development of a thermally direct MOC as opposed to the modern case.

Subduction, water mass transformation, and transport rates in the Indo-Pacific Ocean are diagnosed in a recent version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis coupled model. It is found that the subduction across the base of the winter mixed layer is dominated by the lateral transfer, particularly within the relatively dense water classes corresponding to the densest mode and intermediate waters. However, within lighter densities, including those characterizing the lighter varieties of mode waters, the vertical transfer has a strong positive input to the net subduction. The upper-ocean volume transports across 30°N and 32°S are largest within the density classes that correspond to mode waters. In the North Pacific, the buoyancy flux converts the near-surface waters mostly to denser water classes, whereas in the Southern Ocean the surface waters are transformed both to lighter and denser water classes, depending on the density. In response to a doubling of CO2, the subduction, transformation, and transport of mode waters in both hemispheres shift to lighter densities but do not change significantly, whereas the subduction of intermediate waters decreases. The area of large winter mixed layer depths decreases, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the low latitudes, the thermocline water flux that enters the tropical Pacific via the western boundary flows generally increases. However, its anomaly has a complex structure, so that integrated estimates can be sensitive to the isopycnal ranges. The upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) strengthens in the warmer climate, whereas its lower part weakens. The anomaly in the EUC closely follows the anomaly in stratification along the equator. The Indonesian Throughflow transport decreases with part of it being redirected eastward. This part joins with the intensified equatorward thermocline flows at the western boundaries and contributes to the EUC anomaly.

Four versions of the same global climate model, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1.8° × 3.6° to 0.2° × 0.4°, are employed to evaluate the resolution dependence of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation. At coarse resolutions North Atlantic Deep Water tends to upwell diabatically at low latitudes, so that the Southern Ocean is weakly coupled with the rest of the ocean. As resolution increases and eddy effects become less parameterized the interior circulation becomes more adiabatic and deep water increasingly upwells by flowing along isopycnals in the Southern Ocean, despite each model having the same vertical diffusivity profile. Separating the overturning circulation into mean and eddy-induced components demonstrates that both the permitted and the parameterized eddies induce overturning cells in the Southern Ocean with mass fluxes across mean isopycnals. It is found that for some density classes the transformation rate derived from surface buoyancy fluxes can provide a proxy for the net meridional transport in the upper Southern Ocean. Changes in the Southern Ocean overturning in response to poleward-intensifying Southern Hemisphere winds concomitant with increasing atmospheric CO2 through the twenty-first century are also investigated. Results suggest that the circulation associated with the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water is likely to strengthen, or stay essentially unchanged, rather than to slow down.

A climate model is used to study the climatic impact of the stress exerted on the ocean by the atmosphere. When this stress is set to zero everywhere, the climate becomes much colder, with global-mean near-surface air temperature dropping from 14.8° to 6.1°C. The largest temperature decrease occurs in high latitudes, where sea ice advances equatorward to 40° of latitude. Many of these changes are induced by the changes in the oceanic circulation. In particular, with momentum flux set to zero, the meridional transport of buoyancy in the ocean, including that fraction often associated with the buoyancy-driven circulation, essentially vanishes and, hence, so does much of the surface heat flux. Vertical transport of buoyancy in the ocean is also strongly affected. In addition, the model suggests that the flux of momentum to the ocean has a profound indirect influence on the transport of latent heat. However, the total radiative flux entering the planet at low and midlatitudes does not change much. Instead, the net energy transport across 40°S increases, whereas that across 40°N decreases. The poleward energy transport in the atmosphere increases at midlatitudes in both hemispheres, whereas the oceanic heat transport decreases most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere. The climate becomes colder in both hemispheres, which is not easy to infer from the meridional transport of energy either by the climate system as a whole or by its individual components. Furthermore, the model suggests that it is the wind stress driving the midlatitude oceans—that is, where the oceanic heat transport accounts for only a very tiny fraction of the total poleward energy transport by the climate system, which is of more importance for maintaining the mean position of sea ice edge and, hence, much of the global climate.

Using a set of models, including one with a resolution of ¼°, several aspects of the simulated seasonal currents in the deep ocean are considered. It is shown that over vast areas of the deep interior, particularly in the Indian Ocean, annual-mean circulation represents a small residual of much stronger seasonal flows. In many places the seasonal horizontal velocities are of the order of 10−2 m s−1, reaching locally to 10−1 m s−1; the corresponding vertical velocities are of the order of 10−5 m s−1. An idealized geometry model is employed to confirm the notion that much of this seasonal variability in the deep-ocean circulation can be attributed to the annual cycle of wind stress, combined with the significant increase in the vertical trapping depth for basin-scale seasonal forcing. It is suggested that, at least on seasonal time scales, the so-called bottom pressure torque can be an important term in the depth-integrated vorticity balance. An interaction of these relatively strong flows (of nontidal origin) with bottom topography may contribute to diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean in a manner similar to that proposed recently for the Southern Ocean. In addition, it is found that under a plausible climate change scenario, the amplitude of the mean annual cycle of wind stress may change. Among the regions where such changes are most pronounced is that in the extratropical North Pacific. It is shown that the data on surface wind stress can be effectively used to identify the seasons with the largest changes in the deep-reaching overturning cells. Finally, unlike what might be expected from the earlier theories, the annual-mean circulation simulated by the model with ¼° resolution has the deep interior flows that tend to group into jetlike structures, often having a predominant equatorward rather than poleward direction.

Recent analyses of the latest series of climate model simulations suggest that increasing CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are partly responsible for (i) the observed poleward shifting and strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar westerlies (in association with shifting of the southern annular mode toward a higher index state), and (ii) the observed warming of the subsurface Southern Ocean. Here the role that poleward-intensifying westerlies play in subsurface Southern Ocean warming is explored. To this end a climate model of intermediate complexity was driven separately, and in combination with, time-varying CO2 emissions and time-varying surface winds (derived from the fully coupled climate model simulations mentioned above). Experiments suggest that the combination of the direct radiative effect of CO2 emissions and poleward-intensified winds sets the overall magnitude of Southern Ocean warming, and that the poleward-intensified winds are key in terms of determining its latitudinal structure. In particular, changes in wind stress curl associated with poleward-intensified winds significantly enhance pure CO2-induced subsurface warming around 45°S (through increased downwelling of warm surface water), reduces it at higher latitudes (through increased upwelling of cold deep water), and reduces it at lower latitudes (through decreased downwelling of warm surface water). Experiments also support recent high-resolution ocean model experiments suggesting that enhanced mesoscale eddy activity associated with poleward-intensified winds influences subsurface (and surface) warming. In particular, it is found that increased poleward heat transport associated with increased mesoscale eddy activity enhances the warming south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Finally, a mechanism involving offshore Ekman sea ice transport (modulated by enhanced mesoscale activity) that acts to significantly limit the human-induced high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface temperature response is reported on.

We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different responses: for CO2 concentrations of 400 ppm or lower, the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO2 concentrations of 440 ppm or higher, the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures, degassing of CO2 and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the flush, the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO2 is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The existence of a threshold in CO2 concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing. If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system, the consequences would comprise a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm, an increase in global surface temperature of the order of 1–2°C, local temperature changes of the order of 6°C and a profound change in ocean stratification, deep water temperature and sea ice cover.

Using a high-resolution ocean model forced with high-resolution atmospheric fields, a 5 year mean heat budget of the upper ocean in the Gulf Stream (GS) region is analyzed. The heat brought to the region with the mean flows along the GS path is 2–3 times larger than the heat loss to the atmosphere, with the difference being balanced by a strong cooling effect due to lateral eddy heat fluxes. However, over a broad area off the Grand Banks, the eddies warm the uppermost ocean layers, partly compensating for the loss of heat to the atmosphere. The upward eddy heat flux, which brings heat from the deeper ocean to the upper layers, is 30–80% of the surface heat loss.

Results from eight ocean–atmosphere general circulation models are used to evaluate the influence of the projected changes in the oceanic stratification on the first baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation in the ocean, associated with atmospheric CO2 increase. For each of the models, an oceanic state corresponding to the A1B stabilization experiment (with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 720 ppm) is compared to a state corresponding to the preindustrial control experiment (with atmospheric CO2 concentration of 280 ppm). In all of the models, the first baroclinic Rossby radius increases with increasing oceanic stratification in the warmer climate. There is, however, a considerable range among the models in the magnitude of the increase. At the latitudes of intense eddy activity associated with instability of western boundary currents (around 35°–40°), the increase reaches 4 km on average, or about 15% of the local baroclinic Rossby radius. Some of the models predict an increase of the baroclinic Rossby radius by more than 20% at these latitudes under the applied forcing. It is therefore suggested that in a plausible future warmer climate, the characteristic length scale of mesoscale eddies, as well as boundary currents and fronts, may increase. In addition, since the speed of long baroclinic Rossby waves is proportional to the squared baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation, the results suggest that the time scale for large-scale dynamical oceanic adjustment may decrease in the warmer climate, thereby increasing the frequency of long-term climate variability where the oceanic Rossby wave dynamics set the dominant period. Finally, the speed of equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby waves, carrying signals along the equator, including those related to ENSO, is projected to increase.

Observations indicate that intense mixing in the ocean is localized above complex topography and near the boundaries. Model experiments presented here illustrate that accounting for this fact can be important. In particular, it is found that in the case of localized mixing, the rate of overturning circulation is proportional to the net rate of generation of potential energy by the vertical mixing, linked to the net downward heat diffusion, rather than to the value of the mean vertical diffusivity coefficient. Furthermore, it is shown that two climate models, having the same vertical profile of diffusivity but differing in their distribution (horizontally uniform versus topography/boundary intensified) can simulate significantly different meridional oceanic circulations, vertical heat transfers, and responses of simulated climate to atmospheric CO2 increase. This is found for relatively large [O(1.0 cm2 s−1)] horizontal-mean values of vertical diffusivity in the pycnocline. However, in cases of relatively small [O(0.1 cm2 s−1)] mean diffusivity in the pycnocline, the simulated integral quantities such as meridional mass and heat transports do not depend much on the details of the mixing distribution. Even so, it is found that the deep western boundary currents are more localized near the boundaries in the case of topography/boundary-intensified mixing; also, the stratification in the deep ocean is set through the localized regions of intense vertical mixing. In addition, it is shown that reconciling the observed basin-mean values of diffusivity in the abyssal ocean of O(10 cm2 s−1) with realistic stratification can be problematic, unless the regions of enhanced vertical mixing are localized.

Global climate models indicate that the poleward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current observed over recent decades may have been significantly human induced. The poleward shift, along with a significant increase in the transport of water around Antarctica, is predicted to continue into the future. To appreciate the magnitude of the poleward shift it is noted that by century’s end the concomitant shrinking of the Southern Ocean is predicted to displace a volume of water close to that in the entire Arctic Ocean. A simple theory, balancing surface Ekman drift and ocean eddy mixing, explains these changes as the oceanic response to changing wind stress.

A global, flux-corrected climate model is em- ployed to predict the surface wind stress and associated wind-driven oceanic circulation for climate states corre- sponding to a doubling and quadrupling of the atmo- spheric CO2 concentration in a simple 1% per year CO2 increase scenario. The model indicates that in response to CO2 increase, the position of zero wind stress curl in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere shifts pole- ward. In addition, the wind stress intensifies significantly in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. As a result, the rate of water circulation in the subpolar meridional overturning cell in the Southern Ocean in- creases by about 6 Sv (1 Sv=10 6 m 3 s � 1 ) for doubled CO2 and by 12 Sv for quadrupled CO2, implying an in- crease of deep water upwelling south of the circumpolar flow and an increase of Ekman pumping north of it. In addition, the changes in the wind stress and wind stress curl translate into changes in the horizontal mass trans- port, leading to a poleward expansion of the subtropical gyres in both hemispheres, and to strengthening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Finally, the intensified near-surface winds over the Southern Ocean result in a substantial increase of mechanical energy supply to the ocean general circulation.

The strong influence of enhanced diapycnal mixing over rough topography on bottom-water circulation is illustrated using results from two global ocean model experiments. In the first, diapycnal diffusivity is set to the observed background level of 10−5 m2 s−1 in regions not subject to shear instability, convection, or surface-driven mixing. In the second experiment, mixing is enhanced above rough bottom topography to represent the dissipation of internal tides. Three important results are obtained. First, without the enhanced mixing in the abyssal ocean, the deep North Pacific Ocean becomes essentially a stagnant basin, with little bottom-water circulation and very weak deep stratification. Allowing for the enhanced diapycnal mixing above rough bottom topography leads to increased bottom-water circulation and deep stratification and a potential vorticity distribution in the North Pacific that is much more realistic. Second, the enhanced diapycnal mixing above rough topography results in a significant intensification and deepening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, as well as in stronger bottom-water formation around Antarctica. Last, our experiments suggest that dissipation of internal tides and the associated enhanced diapycnal mixing in the abyssal ocean play no part in the circulation of deep water forming in the North Atlantic Ocean and in the associated transport of heat in the ocean.

A global, oceanic teleconnection of salinity, meridional overturning circulation (MOC), and climate of the North Atlantic and North Pacific is proposed. Simulations with a global climate model show that an extraction of freshwater from the Pacific results not only in an increase of salinity there, but also in a decrease of salinity in the Atlantic. As a result, a Pacific MOC develops while the Atlantic MOC collapses without freshwater perturbation in the Atlantic. Similarly, an input of freshwater to the Atlantic leads not only to a decrease of salinity there, but also to an increase of salinity in the Pacific. The Atlantic MOC collapses, whereas the Pacific MOC develops without freshwater perturbation in the Pacific. The mechanism behind this antiphase Atlantic– Pacific relationship is the positive feedback between ocean circulation and salinity contrasts, originally proposed by Stommel to operate between low and high latitudes. Here the authors show that the same mechanism operates on the Atlan...

Different climate models simulate different behavior of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) under the same global warming scenario. We propose a plausible explanation for this and argue that a proper simulation of the present-day climate in the subpolar North Atlantic is important. This is illustrated using results from idealized global warming experiments, in which both the radiative forcing scenario and the model employed are the same, with the only major difference being the initial subpolar North Atlantic climate. The initial conditions are made progressively colder, with more extensive sea-ice cover in the northern North Atlantic.The key result is that starting from conditions which are too cold in the North Atlantic and with sea-ice that is too extensive leads to an MOC that is more stable to the radiative forcing. Furthermore, under considerably underestimated sea surface temperatures in subpolar regions, the MOC can even intensify. A reduction of freshwater flux associated with the reduction of sea-ice melt is shown to be important for such unusual behavior of the MOC. Other mechanisms are also considered, but not deemed as important in explaining published inter-model differences.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.

We have studied the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to surface freshwater forcing using an ocean GCM coupled to an energy-moisture-balance atmosphere model. The overturning collapses rapidly when a slowly increasing forcing applied to the North Atlantic passes a positive threshold, and spins up equally quickly when the forcing falls below a negative threshold. This well-known behaviour is referred to as hysteresis because the thresholds in forcing are different for the transitions in opposite directions. However, we argue that the behaviour of the Atlantic salinity is more fundamental than the forcing. Hysteresis as a function of freshwater forcing occurs because the states with North Atlantic overturning “on” and “off” each tend to reinforce their associated salinity distributions and inhibit the transition to the other state. During the collapse, the Atlantic becomes less saline because of the import of 80 Sv year of freshwater by ocean transports across 30°S; during the spin-up this freshwater is exported again. We show that qualitatively similar hysteresis behaviour can be produced by perturbing the system without any net freshwater forcing. The salinity flip-flop is associated with the appearance and disappearance of a shallow reverse overturning circulation south of the Equator, which is present while the northern overturning is absent, and may provide the mechanism for the ocean freshwater influx during collapse.

A close link between the formation of global-scale water masses, such as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and two stable modes of the thermohaline circulation (THC) is investigated in a coupled model. In the upper 2–3 km of the Atlantic, the THC modes are characterized by meridional overturning circulations of opposite sign, with either a dominance of the AAIW cell over the NADW cell (“off” THC mode) or vice versa (“on” THC mode). A transition between these THC modes is controlled by the relationship between the densities in the source regions of formation of AAIW and NADW water masses. This is shown by applying a freshwater perturbation in the region of enhanced AAIW formation in the Southern Ocean to obtain a hysteresis loop of the NADW circulation. Transitions between the two modes of the THC occur when the densities in the source regions of AAIW and NADW become comparable to each other.

Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) was a prominent feature of the last deglaciation, which led to a sea-level rise of ∼20 meters in less than 500 years. Concurrent with mwp-1A was the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial event (14,600 years before the present), which marked the termination of the last glacial period. Previous studies have been unable to reconcile a warm Northern Hemisphere with mwp-1A originating from the Laurentide or Fennoscandian ice sheets. With the use of a climate model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that with mwp-1A originating from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, consistent with recent sea-level fingerprinting inferences, the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation increases, thereby warming the North Atlantic region and providing an explanation for the onset of the Bølling-Allerød warm interval. The established mode of active NADW formation is then able to respond to subsequent freshwater forcing from the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets, setting the stage for the Younger Dryas cold period.

We combine reconstructions, climate model simulations and a conceptual model of glacial climate change on millennial time scales to examine the relation between the high latitudes of both hemispheres. A lead-lag analysis of synchronised proxy records indicates that temperature changes in Greenland preceded changes of the opposite sign in Antarctica by 400– 500 yr . A composite record of the Dansgaard–Oeschger events shows that rapid warming (cooling) in Greenland was followed by a slow cooling (warming) phase in Antarctica. The amplitudes, rates of change and time lag of the interhemispheric temperature changes found in the reconstructions are in excellent agreement with climate model simulations in which the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water is perturbed. The simulated time lag between high northern and southern latitudes is mainly determined by the slow meridional propagation of the signal in the Southern Ocean. Our climate model simulations also show that increased deep water formation in the North Atlantic leads to a reduction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current through diminishing meridional density gradients in the Southern Ocean. We construct a simple conceptual model of interhemispheric Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations. This model explains major features of the recorded temperature changes in Antarctica as well as the general shape of the north–south phase relation found in the observations including a broad peak of positive correlations for a lead of Antarctica over Greenland by 1000– 2000 yr . The existence of this peak is due to the regularity of the oscillations and does not imply a southern hemisphere trigger mechanism, contrary to previous suggestions. Our findings thus further emphasise the role of the thermohaline circulation in millennial scale climate variability.

The influence of surface fluxes of heat, freshwater, and momentum on ocean circulation and transports are analyzed using a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. A control simulation is compared with experiments in which freshwater and wind stress forcing are suppressed separately and together. Thermal forcing is the dominant driving force of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, with freshwater and wind stress forcing both having a smaller positive influence. In the Pacific, on the other hand, freshwater forcing has a negative influence; eliminating it intensifies the meridional overturning, leading to the formation of a deep western boundary current. This difference in sign is consistent with the Atlantic being a net evaporative basin and the Pacific one with net precipitation. Deep outflow from the Atlantic at 30°S is more strongly dependent on freshwater than on wind stress forcing. The sensitivity to freshwater forcing is increased when the model is modified to include the eddy m...

The apparent sensitivity of high latitudes to climate perturbations has spurred the development of global climate model components with improved parametrizations of sea‐ice related processes. We focus on two of these. The first involves the ocean component in which we generalize a recently developed parametrization of brine rejection during sea‐ice formation for use in a multi‐category sea‐ice model (i.e., one that resolves the thickness distribution function). The parametrization employs initial subsurface mixing of brine‐enriched surface waters resulting from sea‐ice growth. It is implemented in the University of Victoria coupled model, and numerical experiments are performed to highlight the physical processes and feedbacks involved. It is shown that a better representation of brine rejection improves the simulation of intermediate and deep ocean waters. Over the Arctic Ocean it also improves the simulation of the warm Atlantic Layer and sharpens the halocline. The second part of this paper fo...

A new earth system climate model of intermediate complexity has been developed and its climatology compared to observations. The UVic Earth System Climate Model consists of a three‐dimensional ocean general circulation model coupled to a thermodynamic/dynamic sea‐ice model, an energy‐moisture balance atmospheric model with dynamical feedbacks, and a thermomechanical land‐ice model. In order to keep the model computationally efficient a reduced complexity atmosphere model is used. Atmospheric heat and freshwater transports are parametrized through Fickian diffusion, and precipitation is assumed to occur when the relative humidity is greater than 85%. Moisture transport can also be accomplished through advection if desired. Precipitation over land is assumed to return instantaneously to the ocean via one of 33 observed river drainage basins. Ice and snow albedo feedbacks are included in the coupled model by locally increasing the prescribed latitudinal profile of the planetary albedo. The atmospher...

An ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model is used to show the importance of wind-driven sea ice motion in the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). The model is able to reasonably simulate a tongue of low salinity AAIW even when the direct momentum transfer from wind to the ocean is neglected, provided that the wind stress is applied to sea ice. In contrast, when the wind stress exclusively drives the ocean, the model fails to capture the properties of AAIW. The growth and subsequent offshore transport of sea ice acts as a freshwater conduit from near-shore regions, where AABW is formed, to subpolar regions, where AAIW is formed. Sea ice dynamics are also shown to be important in the simulation of a local salinity minimum at intermediate depths in the southern Indian Ocean and a local salinity maximum in the western Weddell Sea.

The paper is devoted to the application of satellite altimetry from the TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1 missions to the Black Sea. We use the NASA Ocean Altimeter Pathfinder Project collinear data set and monthly climatic hydrography to restore the dynamical sea level, that which connected with the Black Sea circulation. Two realizations are created from collinear and grid data sets. The Black Sea hydrographic survey data collected by the Cooperative Marine Science Programme for the Black Sea are used for validation of both products. The estimated rms accuracy of the Black Sea dynamical level is about 3 cm. The grid data product is used for the analysis of seasonal and mesoscale variability of the Black Sea level. The observations show that the Black Sea circulation has strong seasonal variation. It attenuates in summer to autumn and intensifies in winter to spring. This variability is accompanied by a western-phase propagation of the sea level. A simple two-layer model of the wind-induced circulation in the rectangular basin provides an interpretation of these results. It is shown that the seasonal variability of the geostrophic circulation is most likely produced by the annual changes of the wind stress curl. The western phase propagation is treated as the radiation of Rossby waves from the eastern coast of the basin. Typical periods of the mesoscale oscillations of the dynamical sea level are estimated from the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter time series in different parts of the Black Sea by means of a spectral analysis. The strongest mesoscale oscillations have periods of about 120 days and are located in the southeastern part of the basin, where the Rim Current bifurcates, and off the Crimean peninsula, where the Rim Current meanders as a result of the local orography.