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During the post-Green Revolution era, numerous improved wheat varieties were released and disseminated to enhance tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses and increase productivity. Still, in the wheat-based farming systems of the Global South, gender-based and other social inequalities continue to undermine equitable access to improved varieties, especially for women, poor, and marginalized farmers. Here, we present a case for gender-sensitive technology development, dissemination, and evaluation as part of wheat varietal improvement programs. We take stock of the various challenges that persist in the uptake of modern wheat varieties by male and female smallholders. We focus on Ethiopia and India, two geographies with substantive wheat economies, widespread poverty, and gender inequalities. The socio-economic literature on wheat is relatively thin with limited and dated gender-sensitive evaluation studies on varietal technologies in these countries. Varietal technology evaluations could ideally cover gender differences in relation to wheat varietal trait preferences, technology adoption, and associated decision-making and labor-use changes related to new varieties and complementary technologies, as well as nutritional and economic benefits. The paper calls for a need to change the institutional arrangements in wheat research-and-development (R&D) programs to understand and pursue better paths for wheat improvement to proactively contribute toward gender equity and inclusivity.

Since its domestication some 9,000 years ago, maize (Zea mays L.; corn) has played an increasing and diverse role in global agri-food systems. Global maize production has surged in the past few decades, propelled by rising demand and a combination of technological advances, yield increases and area expansion. Maize is already the leading cereal in terms of production volume and is set to become the most widely grown and traded crop in the coming decade. It is a versatile multi-purpose crop, primarily used as a feed globally, but also is important as a food crop, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, besides other non-food uses. This paper reviews maize production, consumption, and international trade to examine the changing trends in global supply and demand conditions over the past quarter century and the implications for research and development (R&D), particularly in the Global South. The inclusiveness and sustainability of the ongoing transformation of agri-food systems in the Global South merit particular attention. There is a need for further investments in R&D, particularly to enhance maize’s food and livelihood security roles and to sustainably intensify maize production while staying within the planetary boundaries.

Summary This study examines the extent to which wheat varieties supplied by the formal seed system align with the varieties demanded and used by farmers in Ethiopia. The framework of stated and revealed preferences drawn from the consumer preference theory is used to analyze farmer demand for different wheat varieties. We used official data from the formal seed sector and representative survey data from wheat farm households in Ethiopia. The survey data allow to contrast the farmer reported varietal use with genotyping by sequencing (also known as DNA fingerprinting). Farmers’ reliance on informal seed sources and own saved seed, among others, contributes to the misidentification of the varieties they grow. Consequently, farmers are likely to misinform the formal seed demand assessment leading to either an over- or underestimation of actual seed demand for specific wheat varieties. Genotyping by sequencing, as opposed to farmer reports, established the persistence of old varieties. This also implies vulnerability of wheat production to disease dynamics depending on the longevity of disease resistance by the variety in use. Apart from narrowing the gap between the actual and stated demand and ensuring timely replacement of wheat varieties, genotyping-assisted estimates can save seed carry-over cost. Genotyping by sequencing is increasingly used as the new benchmark and gold standard for identifying and tracking the adoption of crop varieties. The technique has potential to enhance the performance of the seed sector through effective planning that can optimize resource commitments and accelerate the rate of varietal replacement.

A precarious food security situation implies that many countries in the Global South may not achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) of zero hunger by 2030. We focus on the case of Uganda and explore food demand and food security implications for 2030, where 33% (15 million) of the population of 44 million are poor. Matooke (cooking bananas), cassava, and (sweet) potatoes are traditional foods in Uganda; however, the consumption of maize, wheat, and rice has been rising with increases in income and urbanization. Using the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) datasets of Uganda, this study estimated the demand for matooke, cassava and potatoes, maize/coarse grains, wheat and rice, vegetables, and meat and fish in 2030. Our findings confirm that with increases in income and demographic changes, the demand for these food items will increase drastically. To attain SDG2 of zero hunger, as well as food and nutrition security, this study calls for further investments in Uganda's agricultural sector to enhance domestic production capacity to meet the growing demand for food.

Wheat blast is a devastating fungal disease of wheat crops. The disease emerged in Brazil in the 1980s and is now spreading across continents, so it is urgent to calculate the potential for wheat blast spread and estimate the impact on wheat yield globally. By coupling a wheat crop simulation model with a new wheat blast model, quantitative estimates of wheat blast vulnerability were made with geographical precision. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. Simulations of a warmer and more humid climate in the future show how wheat blast may spread, particularly in the southern hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century.

SummaryMaize production is central to rural livelihoods in the hills of Nepal. Access to affordable improved maize seed has long been a barrier to productivity gains and livelihood improvement. This study evaluates the direct and indirect (spillover) impacts of a community-based seed production program in Nepal using a quasi-experimental method for selected outcome indicators. Our results show that community-based seed production provides a significant positive direct impact on maize income and female leadership opportunities. The impacts were particularly favorable for disadvantaged households (HHs) from lower castes and HHs that owned less land. There is also strong evidence of spillover impacts on improved seed adoption, yield, and household maize self-sufficiency. Community-based seed production thereby could help Nepal attain cereal self-sufficiency and nutritional security as envisioned in the national agricultural development strategy and seed vision.

This study assesses the factors affecting the adoption of laser land leveling (LLL) and its impact on crop yields and net returns. It uses household survey data collected from 621 randomly selected farmers in Karnal District of Haryana, India, and applies endogenous switching regression models. Unbiased model results show that the adoption of LLL has significant positive impacts on yields (rice +549 kg ha−1; wheat +471 kg ha−1) and net returns (an aggregate increase of US$230/ha) in the rice‐wheat production system, thereby raising farmers' income substantially. Our results show that LLL adoption at the farm level is influenced by land size and quality, tenure system, availability of farm machinery (tractor), access to finance and farm cooperatives, gender of household head, level of education and training and access to extension services. Therefore, LLL scaling strategies need to consider these bio‐physical and socio‐economic parameters to reach adoption at scale and generate large social, economic, and environmental benefits.

Agricultural research-and-development (R&D) systems generate and disseminate new technologies, aiming to enhance crop and livestock production sustainably. Adoption-impact studies analyze farmer acceptance of these innovations and their impacts to identify what was taken up, how it works in farmers’ fields, and the implications thereof. In this paper, we focus on adoption-impact studies in wheat agri-food systems in the Global South and review 47 empirical studies published during 2008–2017. The review focuses on the assessment of technological changes rather than the nature of these changes per se. We document the breadth and adequacy of empirical approaches and methodologies, as well as the diversity and coverage of thematic areas for adoption-impact analyses. The coverage and scope do not fully capture the complex and dynamic technological changes taking place in wheat systems. The reviewed studies typically conceive the adoption process as a dichotomous choice representing the replacement of old inferior practices with new superior ones. Most reviewed impact studies address only the short-term changes associated with innovation adoption on yield and profitability, often assuming that improvements in the living standards of farm households follow de facto. Labor productivity and the ecological and social impacts of technological innovations were largely ignored. We propose several directions to enhance both data availability and analytical rigor, and to reorient future research toward the less-explored but socially, economically, and ecologically relevant topics.

Since its domestication around 10,000 years ago, wheat has played a crucial role in global food security. Wheat now supplies a fifth of food calories and protein to the world’s population. It is the most widely cultivated crop in the world, cultivated on 217 million ha annually. This chapter assesses available data on wheat production, consumption, and international trade to examine the global supply and demand conditions for wheat over the past quarter century and future implications. There is continued urgency to enhance wheat productivity to ensure global food security given continued global population growth and growing popularity of wheat based processed foods in the Global South. To enhance productivity while staying within planetary boundaries, there is a need for substantive investments in research and development, particularly in support of wheat’s role in agri-food systems in the Global South.

Background: Staple cereals always have been important dietary components, yet recent debates on their role in human diets are riddled with myths and misinformation. Scope and approach: This article examines the informational controversies, particularly about wheat, and reviews the evidence. The discussion centers on three nutritional cereal debates: i) ‘empty calories’, ii) over-consumption, and iii) how ‘free-from’ fads confound dietary transitions. Key findings and conclusions: This article makes two principal points, that i) advances in nutrition are a complex, slow process, and that ii) they can be easily confounded and undone by misinformation. Hence we suggest that more consumer-oriented work is needed—including behavioral approaches and political economy—in order to improve the quality of information, communication and dietary decision making. There is a clear need to tackle nutritional misinformation given the costs of inaction and the need to formulate a coherent agri-nutrition agenda.

This study reports on the adoption and impacts of CGIAR-related maize varieties in 18 major maize-producing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) during 1995-2015. Of the 1345 maize varieties released during this timeframe, approximately 60% had a known CGIAR parentage. About 34% (9.5 million ha) of the total maize area in 2015 was cultivated with 'new' CGIAR-related maize varieties released between 1995 and 2015. In the same year, an additional 13% of the maize area was cultivated with 'old' CGIAR-related maize varieties released before 1995. The aggregate annual economic benefit of using new CGIAR-related maize germplasm for yield increase in SSA was estimated at US$1.1-1.6 billion in 2015, which we attributed equally to co-investments by CGIAR funders, public-sector national research and extension programs, and private sector partners. Given that the annual global investment in CGIAR maize breeding at its maximum was US$30 million, the benefit-cost ratios for the CGIAR investment and CGIAR-attributable portion of economic benefits varied from 12:1-17:1, under the assumption of a 5-year lag in the research investment to yield returns. The study also discusses the methodological challenges involved in large-scale impact assessments. Post-2015 CGIAR tropical maize breeding efforts have had a strong emphasis on stress tolerance.

Cereals research over the past fifty years has led to huge improvements in production, productivity and food security. The current emphasis in agri-nutrition on micronutrients has cast doubt on the need to continue to invest in cereals. However, besides the essential dietary energy content of cereals such as wheat, maize and rice, we argue that there are two important factors to consider. First, the intrinsic micronutrient content of cereals is not often taken into account. As a major dietary component, cereal foods are already an important vehicle for enhanced nutrition, and these characteristics are amenable to further improvement through plant breeding and value chain interventions in processing, manufacturing and distribution. Second, while adverse effects are acknowledged for some people, cereals are a rich source of both dietary fibre and a range of bioactive food components that are also essential for good health and well-being. In particular, the role of the bioactives in combatting non-communicable diseases is becoming more evident. The development community must not assume that the research gains of the last five decades will be sufficient to guarantee future food security. Research into cereals should be implemented as a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary activity encompassing whole food systems.

Crop residues (CR) are an important, internally produced resource with several uses on smallholder, mixed crop-livestock farms, including livestock feed, mulch, fuel and construction material. This study sets out to develop a method to estimate the internal shadow value of CR as feed and as mulch for smallholder households. The study uses a South Asia case study as illustration using data from a set of village and household surveys in three different sites. The estimated shadow prices were higher for CR as mulch than for CR as feed at all three sites. These results reject the null hypothesis that the estimated shadow price for CR as feed is greater than the shadow price for CR as mulch. Since the null hypothesis was formed based on observing household behavior, the rejection of the null hypothesis implies that there are other reasons explaining why more households use CR as feed versus as mulch. However, additional research and data are needed to form a more complete understanding of the household decision process.

Frequent droughts in sub-Saharan Africa imply water stress for rainfed agriculture and, ultimately, food insecurity, underlining the region’s vulnerability to climate change. Yet, in the maize-growing areas, farmers have been given new drought-coping options following the release and availability of drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs). These varieties are being disseminated through the National Agricultural Research and Extension Systems in collaboration with seed companies; however, their adoption still appears somewhat modest, and empirical studies on their adoption potential and associated drivers are scarce. We use empirical data from Uganda to estimate the actual and potential adoption rates and the adoption determinants of DTMVs under information and seed access constraints. Adoption rates for DTMVs could have been up to 22% in 2015 instead of the observed sample adoption rate of 14% if the whole population had been exposed to them. The adoption rate could increase to 30% if seed were availed to the farming population and to 47% if seed were sold at a more affordable price to farmers. The observed adoption rate of 14% implies gaps in the potential adoption rates of 8%, 16%, and 33% because of a lack of awareness, a lack of seed access, and high seed prices, respectively. The findings underscore the role of both market and non-market-based approaches and the potential to further scale the cultivation of DTMVs in Uganda.

Purpose Productivity and production risks affect the use of agricultural production practices and inputs, particularly in developing countries. This paper aims to investigate the effects of adopting drought-tolerant maize varieties (DTMVs) on farm productivity, yield variance and downside risk exposure of maize growing households of Zambia. Design/methodology/approach The study uses household survey data collected from 11 maize producing districts of Eastern, Southern and Copperbelt provinces of Zambia using a structured questionnaire. The Antle’s flexible moment-based approach was used in specifying, estimating and testing a stochastic production function. The study further applied an endogenous switching regression model to control for both observable and unobservable sources of bias. Findings The study revealed that DTMV adoption increases maize yield by 15 per cent and reduces the risk of crop failure: reducing yield variance by 38 per cent and exposure to downside risk by 36 per cent. Originality/value This study establishes the benefits of DTMV adoption in Zambia with regards to productivity, yield stability and downside risk in the face of climate change. Results from this study underscore the need for more concerted efforts to scale-out DTMVs for both maize productivity enhancement and for risk mitigation against weather shocks.

Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties (DTMV) and Rainfall Index Insurance (RII) are potential complements, though with limited empirical basis. We employ a multivariate spatial framework to investigate the potential for bundling DTMV with a simulated multi-site and multi-environment RII, designed to insure against mild, moderate and severe drought risk. We use yield data from on-farm trials conducted by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) and partners over 49 locations in Eastern and Southern Africa spanning 8 countries and 5 mega-environments (dry lowland, dry mid altitude, wet lower mid altitude, low wetland and wet upper mid altitude) in which 19 different improved maize varieties including DTMV were tested at each location. Spatially correlated daily rainfall data are generated from a first-order two-state Markov chain process and used to calibrate the index and predict yields with a hierarchical Bayes multivariate spatial model. Results show high variation in the performance and benefits of different bundles which depend on the maize variety, the risk layer insured, and the type of environment, with high chances of selecting a sub-optimal and unattractive contract. We find that complementing RII with a specific DTMV produces contracts with lower premiums and higher guaranteed returns especially in dry lowland increasing the chances of scaling up RII within this environment.

This paper reviews agricultural mechanization and reduced tillage use in the context of sustainable intensification in developing country agriculture. The scoping review includes selected a...

New farming systems and management options are needed in South Asia as the intensive rice–wheat production system is set to become increasingly unsustainable under climate change. In the current study, six cropping systems options/treatments varying in tillage, crop establishment method, residue management, crop sequence and fertilizer and water management were evaluated using a cropping systems model under current (1980–2009) and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios in the state of Bihar, India. The treatments were current farmers' practice (CP), best fertilizer and water management practices, zero tillage (ZT) with no crop residue retention, ZT with partial crop residue retention (ZTPR), future conservation agriculture-based rice–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-1) and future conservation agriculture-based maize–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-2). The results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce rice–wheat system productivity under CP by 4% across Bihar. All the crop management options studied increased yield, water productivity and net returns over that of the CP under the current and future climate scenarios. However, the ZTPR treatment gave significantly higher relative yield, lower annual yield variability and a higher benefit-cost-ratio than the other treatments across cropping system components and climate periods. Although all the new cropping system treatments had a positive yield implication under the current climate (compared to CP), they did not contribute to adaptation under the future climate except FCS-2 in wheat. It is concluded that adaptation to future climate must integrate both cropping system innovations, and genetic improvements in stress tolerance.

Bangladesh is heralded as a success story in terms of smallholder agricultural mechanization enabled by appropriate small-scale machinery and policy. Using data collected in 2013 from 630 farm households in the coastal delta of South-West Bangladesh, this study assesses the factors associated with the adoption of small-scale machine types, particularly irrigation pumps, threshers and power tillers (two-wheel tractors). We use a multivariate probit model to account for the interdependence of machine type use and show the likelihood of adoption to be enhanced by the farmers’ economic position, market access and participation in off-farm work. Critically, machinery ownership is not necessary for their use as most farmers hire these machine services. Key policy implications are to facilitate machinery access and use by enabling the development of small-scale machinery and custom hiring services, and enhancing farmers’ income through access to markets, knowledge and off-farm income generating opportunities.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in Bangladesh was confirmed in wheat (Triticum aestivum) fields in February 2016 and re-occurred in the subsequent years. This study explores the potential of alternative use of current wheat land as a strategy to combat the disease. Economically feasible alternative crops would need to be cultivated in the current wheat area by implementing a potential ‘wheat holiday’ – that is discontinuing wheat cultivation for a few years – be it in the 10 blast affected districts, in blast vulnerable districts or the entire country. An ex-ante economic assessment procedure is applied to examine the potential economic gains (losses) of alternative wheat land use. Results indicate maize, lentils, onions and garlic show potential as feasible alternatives if done as a portfolio combination and with adequate support to ameliorate and ease the transition; whereas boro rice, gram and potato do not appear feasible. Still, considering market volatility, overall food security and logistic challenges, the findings do not support a potentially comprehensive, strict and permanent ‘wheat holiday’ across the entire country. Instead, the study calls for research funding for disease epidemiology and forecasting, as well as the development and dissemination of blast-tolerant wheat varieties and complementary practices targeted at Bangladesh and the broader South Asian setting as a more sustainable and feasible solution to combat and manage wheat blast.

Highlights • Private led irrigation expansion contributed to achieve Bangladesh’s food security. • Different irrigation payment methods have emerged with expansion of irrigation. • Social capital, personal relationships and risks shape irrigation payment method. • Competition among pump owners ensures socially desirable payment method. • Economic and agronomic risks however influence crop sharing payment method., Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated nations that nonetheless has largely achieved staple self-sufficiency. This development has been enabled in part by the rapid proliferation of small-scale irrigation pumps that enabled double rice cropping, as well as by a competitive market system in which farmers purchase water at affordable fee-for-service prices from private irrigation pump owners. Excess groundwater abstraction in areas of high shallow tube-well density and increased fuel costs for pumping have however called into question the sustainability of Bangladesh’s groundwater irrigation economy. Cost-saving agronomic methods are called for, alongside aligned policies, markets, and farmers’ incentives. The study assesses different institutions and water-pricing methods for irrigation services that have emerged in Bangladesh, each of which varies in their incentive structure for water conservation, and the level of economic risk involved for farmers and service providers. Using primary data collected from 139 irrigation service providers and 556 client-farmers, we empirically examine the structure of irrigation service types and associated market and institutional dimensions. Our findings demonstrate that competition among pump owners, social capital and personal relationships, and economic and agronomic risk perceptions of both pump owners and farmers significantly influence the structure of irrigation services and water pricing methods. Greater competition among pump owners increases the likelihood of pay-per-hour services and reduces the likelihood of crop harvest sharing arrangements. Based on these findings, we explore policy implications for enhancing irrigation services and irrigation sustainability in Bangladesh.

The first occurrence of wheat blast in 2016 threatened Bangladesh's already precarious food security situation. The Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), together with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) developed and released the wheat variety BARI Gom 33 that is resistant to wheat blast and other common diseases. The new variety provides a 5–8% yield gain over the available popular varieties, as well as being zinc enriched. This study examines the potential economic benefits of BARI Gom 33 in Bangladesh. First, applying a climate analogue model, this study identified that more than 55% of the total wheat-growing area in Bangladesh (across 45 districts) is vulnerable to wheat blast. Second, applying an ex-ante impact assessment framework, this study shows that with an assumed cumulative adoption starting from 2019–20 and increasing to 30% by 2027–28, the potential economic benefits of the newly developed wheat variety far exceeds its dissemination cost by 2029–30. Even if dissemination of the new wheat variety is limited to only the ten currently blast-affected districts, the yearly average net benefits could amount to USD 0.23–1.6 million. Based on the findings, international funder agencies are urged to support the national system in scaling out the new wheat variety and wheat research in general to ensure overall food security in Bangladesh and South Asia., Highlights • Emergence of wheat blast in Bangladesh severely threatens South Asia's food security. • CIMMYT and Bangladesh has developed the first blast resistant wheat in the world. • The blast resistant BARI Gom 33 is zinc enriched and provides 5–8% yield gain. • This study examines the economic benefits of the dissemination of BARI Gom 33. • Analysis shows that the potential economic benefit far exceeds its dissemination cost.

Climate change poses a major threat to agricultural production and food security in India, and climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is crucial in addressing the potential impacts. Using survey data from 1,267 farm households in 25 villages from Bihar and Haryana in the Indo‐Gangetic Plains, this study analyzes the factors that determine the probability and level of adoption of multiple CSA practices, including seeds of stress‐tolerant varieties, minimum tillage, laser land leveling, site‐specific nutrient management and crop diversification. We applied a multivariate probit model for the simultaneous multiple adoption decisions, and ordered probit models for assessing the factors affecting the level of adoption. The adoption of the various CSA practices is interrelated, whereas several factors, including household characteristics, plot characteristics, market access and major climate risks are found to affect the probability and level of CSA adoption. Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) adoption and its intensity also vary significantly between eastern Bihar, which is relatively poor and densely populated, and north‐western Haryana. Engaging multiple stakeholders such as farmers, agricultural institutions, agricultural service providers and concerned government departments at the local level is crucial for the large‐scale uptake of CSA. The study, therefore, calls for agricultural policy reforms so that most of the issues related to the uptake of CSA can be adequately addressed.

Maize lethal necrosis disease (MLN) was first diagnosed in eastern Africa in the 2010's and is a big threat to their maize-based agri-food systems with estimated losses amounting to US$261 million in Ethiopia and US$198 million in Kenya. This paper reviews the agronomic and policy options to contain MLN and comparatively analyzes the feasibility of using maize-bean rotations and MLN-tolerant germplasm as key alternative strategies for managing MLN. Results from crop simulation and economic surplus models are used to make assessments on what strategy offers the most realistic MLN control approach given the circumstances of smallholder production in Kenya and Ethiopia. The paper finds that although maize-legume rotations are sound agronomic recommendations and are crucial for long term maize production system viability, their widespread application over large geographic areas for MLN control is economically challenging given that maize is a preferred staple. We conclude that scaling MLN-tolerant germplasm proves highly viable with estimated multiplier benefits of US$245-756 million in Ethiopia and US$195-678 million in Kenya, and benefiting up to 2.1 million people in Ethiopia and 1.2 million in Kenya. Given that the threat of MLN is present and ongoing, the food and economic security of maize-based agrarian economies in eastern Africa will critically depend on the successful mainstreaming of MLN tolerance in their maize seed systems.

Using a primary dataset from 350 farmers from the rice-wheat area of Pakistan Punjab, we estimate the impact of laser-land leveling on water saving, crop yields and household income. The analysis employs propensity score matching (PSM) to correct for the potential sample selection bias that may arise due to systematic differences between adopting and non-adopting farmers. In the study, 57% of farmers had access to laser land leveling, with an important role for service providers. Adoption of laser-land leveling has a positive impact on irrigation water savings, wheat and rice yields and household income. The study suggests policy implications for making laser land leveling access and performance more socially inclusive through enhanced awareness, institutional support to service providers and public-private partnerships.

Laser land leveling has been increasingly adopted in the irrigated rice (Oryza sativa L.)–wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cropping system in the state of Haryana (India), located in the north-...

Wheat consumption in Asia’s major rice economies has been increasing over the decades. Bangladesh is no exception, despite being the world’s fourth largest rice-producing and the largest rice-consuming country. In Bangladesh, wheat consumption has doubled from 1961 to 2013, and now stands at 17.5 kg per capita, about a ninth of the rice consumption. Densely populated Bangladesh has achieved rice self-sufficiency, but relies on imports to top up modest domestic wheat production. This study assesses the prospects for Bangladesh to expand its wheat production. The rice–wheat production system offers good prospects to expand wheat production in Bangladesh and respond to increasing domestic demand. Based on the findings, this study urges the expansion of wheat production in the seasonally fallow land, particularly in southern Bangladesh. Also, this study calls for further investments in wheat research and development to ensure local adaptation, comparative advantage, and sustainable intensification.

Maize (Zea mays L.) use, mostly as poultry and fish feed, has been increasing rapidly in Bangladesh – a densely populated country with a rice-based agri-food system. Domestic maize production has increased despite land scarcity but failed to meet the growing demand, with imports making up the shortfall. The present study contextualizes Bangladesh’s domestic maize production potential and examines the determinants of current maize cultivation using data from 1.12 million farm households. We found maize cultivation to be positively associated with the farm resource endowments (favoring medium and large farms) and a favorable production environment, including the availability of registered seed dealers and land suitable for maize cultivation. Resource constraints still undermined the uptake of commercial maize cultivation by smallholders. Still, there remain good prospects for further expansion of maize production in Bangladesh and increased inclusion of smallholders. This calls for further research ...

Purpose Population and income are growing rapidly in South Asia, spurring the demand for food in general, and the demand for higher-valued food items in particular. This poses particular food security challenges for densely populated and emerging countries, such as Bangladesh. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the increasing and changing cereal consumption pattern in developing countries using Bangladesh as a case. Design/methodology/approach Using Bangladesh’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2000, 2005a, b data, and applying a two-stage quadratic almost ideal system estimation procedure, the present study separately estimates the expenditure elasticities for rural and urban households for five food items: rice, wheat and rice and wheat products, pulses, fish and vegetables. Second, using the estimated elasticities, projected population and the per capita GDP growth rates, this study projects the consumption of the sampled food items by 2030. Findings This study demonstrates that in 2030 both rural and urban households in Bangladesh will consume more wheat, pulses and fish, but the urban households will consume less rice compared to the current levels of consumption in 2015. Originality/value To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study on developing countries that examines the evolving food items consumption separately by rural and urban households. Using Bangladesh as a case, this study warns that with rapid urbanization and income growth, developing countries need to supply more wheat, fish and pulses. The provision of the maximum usage of scarce resources, such as arable land, the development and dissemination of improved varieties and the best management practices must be ensured to boost domestic food production in developing countries to cater to the future evolving food consumption.

In recent years, maize has gained prominence as an important staple crop in Ethiopia second only to teff in terms of acreage. Most of this is grown by semi-subsistence farm households whose livelihoods are tied to crop production and some livestock keeping. Therefore, an important policy question concerns the impact that the reported maize revolution has had on household food security. This paper answers that question by examining the empirical regularities that explain the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMVs) and how this has impacted household food security in a sample of 2327 maize producing households in 39 districts of Ethiopia. An endogenous switching regression model supported by the dose-response continuous treatment effect method was used to empirically assess the impact of IMV adoption on per capita food consumption expenditure and perceived household food security status. Results show that IMV adoption has a robust and positive impact on per capita food consumption and also significantly increases the probability of a smallholder being in food surplus. The advances in the adoption of improved maize has thus contributed significantly to the food security of maize producing smallholders, confirming the role of crop improvement in contributing to food security of agrarian households.

Strategic planning for global agricultural R&D is hampered by a lack of comparable data on target populations. Surprisingly, even the global number of crop-specific farms are unavailable for any given year. We estimate the number of farms growing maize and wheat – the two most important cereals globally – at multiple geographic scales. For 2020, we estimate that a third and a fifth of global farms cultivated maize and wheat respectively. For 2030, we estimate the number of maize farms to increase by 5% (from 216 to 227 million) and wheat farms to decrease by 4% (from 135 to 130 million). Our estimation approach can be extended to other crops, and can contribute to improved agricultural investment programming.

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is promoted by research and development (R&amp, D) agencies to sustainably intensify agricultural systems with the goals of improving food security and livelihoods and adapting food systems to global climate change. Despite the many benefits of CA, there are few farmers around the world that have simultaneously implemented all facets of the strategy. In part, this reflects the challenges in applying, adapting, and understanding this complex and multi-dimensional agricultural innovation in the context of diverse farming systems. In this paper, we applied an integrated framework that combines bioeconomic simulation, risk analysis, adoption theory, and impact assessment to investigate how various combinations of CA components (no-tillage, soil cover, crop diversification, plus growing a new crop or variety) performed over a 10-year period in representative farms in a central Mexican case study. We found significant differences in profit, net value, downside risk, and risk-aversion cost between double-component scenarios (and improved CA to a lesser extent) and all other scenarios, which suggested that disaggregating CA into smaller component packages could increase farmer adoption in risky contexts. Our findings provided valuable insights on CA feasibility and could help establish policy and reporting metrics. The study highlighted the need for employing a range of research tools to understand the relative value of agricultural innovations and to identify and reduce trade-offs and uncertainty in farming systems.

Purpose This paper aims to assesses impacts of perceived weather changes (i.e. temperature, wind and rainfall) at the farm household level on income, poverty, wheat yield and use of timber and non-timber forest products in Pakistan’s Himalayan region. Mountains are fragile ecosystems – particularly for farming and in the context of climate change. Yet for many such geographies, there is limited empirical understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. Design/methodology/approach It uses a comprehensive field survey of 500 farmers from the Gilgit-Baltistan territory (comprising seven districts Ghizer, Gilgit, Diamer, Astore, Skardu, Ghance and Hunza-Nagar). A multivariate probit model first assesses the factors associated with perceived weather changes by farm households and a propensity score matching (PSM) approach then estimates the impacts of the perceived changes in temperature, wind and rainfall. Findings The empirical results show that an overwhelming majority of the farmers experience climate change, which primarily has adverse impacts on household income, poverty levels and wheat yields and increases dependence on both timber and non-timber forest products. Originality/value This paper contributes to the scanty literature on the climate change in the Himalayan region of Pakistan.

Young people are increasingly linked to targeted agriculture and food security interventions. In Africa, the argument is that the combination of agricultural value chains, technology and entrepreneurship will unlock a sweet spot for youth employment. This article examines this argument from a rural transformations perspective. A framework is proposed with which to analyse young people’s economic room to manoeuvre in different rural contexts and the differential abilities of young people to exploit associated opportunities. Using cereal agri-food systems as an example, the article identifies two new research areas that address important knowledge gaps: how young rural people in Africa engage with these systems and what pathways they use to become engaged. To address these questions, we propose an analytical framework built around key contextual factors that constrain or enable young people’s economic activity. By pursuing the proposed research agenda, international agricultural research could make important contributions to both agricultural policy debates and development-oriented interventions.

Index-based weather insurance is increasingly used to manage weather-related risks in smallholder agriculture. However, cash-constrained smallholders often lack the resources to pay an insurance premium, which may undermine its wider adoption. This article investigates alternative insurance payment methods that may help to enhance the adoption of index-based weather insurance. We use a choice experiment to elicit smallholders’ willingness to pay in cash or labor for index-based weather insurance in four districts in the south-central highlands of Ethiopia. The insurance schemes were created using a fractional factorial design with three factors: work, cash, and payout rate. We analyze the choice data using a random parameter mixed logit model. We find that the average participants need a subsidy to pay cash for insurance because their willingness to pay is less than the expected cost of the insurance. On average, they are willing to pay only 0.81 ETB (Ethiopian currency) to get an expected yearly payout of 1 ETB. However, most are willing to participate in work-for-insurance programs at lower daily wage rates than is common for other work programs in Ethiopia.