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Reports global developments related to the prognosis of AIDS as of March 2000. Effect of gender on disease progression and CD4 lymphocyte counts; Utilization of highly active antiretroviral therapy in Switzerland; Effect of thymic emigrants on HIV-1 progression.

Introduction: The goal of an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system is to prevent needless death or disability from time-sensitive disease processes. Despite growing evidence that these processes contribute significantly to mortality in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), there has been little focus on the development of EMS systems in poor countries. Problem The objective of this study was to understand the utilization pattern of a newly-implemented EMS system in Ruhiira, Uganda., Methods: An EMS system based on community priorities was implemented in rural Uganda in 2009. Six months of ambulance logs were reviewed. Patient, transfer, and clinical data were extracted and analyzed., Results: In total, 207 cases were reviewed. Out of all transfers, 66% were for chief complaints that were obstetric related, while 12% were related to malaria. Out of all activations, 77.8% were for female patients. Among men, 34% and 28% were related to malaria and trauma, respectively. The majority of emergency transfers were from district to regional hospitals, including 52% of all obstetric transfers, 65% of malaria transfers, and 62% of all trauma transfers. There was no significant difference in the call to arrival on scene time, the time to scene or the scene to treatment time during the day and night (P > .05). Cost-benefit analysis revealed a cost of $89.95 per life saved with an estimated $0.93/capita to establish the system and $0.09/capita/year to maintain the system., Conclusion: Contrary to current belief, EMS systems in rural Africa can be affordable and highly utilized, particularly for life-threatening, nontrauma complaints. Construction of a simple but effective EMS system is feasible, acceptable, and an essential component to the primary health care system of LMICs.

Objective: To compare the rates and clinical features of herpes zoster in HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals in a cohort in rural Uganda; to report the incidence of herpes zoster in the HIV-positive group in relation to seroconversion and CD4 cell counts and to determine whether it is indicative of a more rapid progression to death., Design: A prospective population-based cohort., Methods: The cohort comprised 107 prevalent and 144 incident (with documented dates of seroconversion) participants with HIV infection and 231 HIV-negative controls who were reviewed routinely every 3 months., Results: The mean rate of herpes zoster was 53.6/1000 person-years in HIV-positive and 4.4 in HIV-negative participants. The cumulative incidence of a first episode of herpes zoster was 7.6% at 2 years, 12.6% at 4 years and 24.0% at 6 years after seroconversion; the incidence rate was 35.6/1000 person-years. There was no evidence of a significant effect of age, gender, period from seroconversion or CD4 cell count on this incidence rate. Herpes zoster was an indicator of HIV-1 infection in this population but not an indicator of more rapid progression to death after adjusting for CD4 cell count and age., Conclusions: The rates, including the cumulative incidence after seroconversion and the clinical presentation of herpes zoster, were similar to those reported from industrialized countries. Although an indicator of HIV-1 infection in this population, herpes zoster was unrelated to CD4 cell count or period from seroconversion and did not lead to a faster disease progression.

Background: An association between HIV-1 and malaria is expected in theory, but has not been convincingly shown in practice. We studied the effects of HIV-1 infection and advancing immunosuppression on falciparum parasitaemia and clinical malaria., Methods: HIV-1-positive and HIV-1-negative adults selected from a population-based cohort in rural Uganda were invited to attend a clinic every 3 months (routine visits) and whenever they were sick (interim visits). At each visit, information was collected on recent fever, body temperature, and malaria parasites. Participants were assigned a clinical stage at each routine visit and had regular CD4-cell measurements., Findings: 484 participants made 7220 routine clinic visits between 1990 and 1998. Parasitaemia was more common at visits by HIV-1-positive individuals (328 of 2788 [11.8%] vs 231 of 3688 [6.3%], p<0.0001). At HIV-1-positive visits, lower CD4-cell counts were associated with higher parasite densities, compared with HIV-1-negative visits (p=0.0076). Clinical malaria was significantly more common at HIV-1-positive visits (55 of 2788 [2.0%] vs 26 of 3688 [0.7%], p=0.0003) and the odds of having clinical malaria increased with falling CD4-cell count (p=0.0002) and advancing clinical stage (p=0.0024). Participants made 3377 interim visits. The risk of clinical malaria was significantly higher at visits by HIV-1-positive individuals than HIV-1-negative individuals (4.0% vs 1.9%, p=0.009). The risk of clinical malaria tended to increase with falling CD4-cell counts (p=0.052)., Interpretation: HIV-1 infection is associated with an increased frequency of clinical malaria and parasitaemia. This association tends to become more pronounced with advancing immunosuppression, and could have important public-health implications for sub-Saharan Africa.

Objective: To identify risk factors associated with HIV incidence in a rural Ugandan population., Design: Case-control study., Methods: Men and women who seroconverted between 1990 and 1997 (cases) and seronegative subjects (controls) were drawn from a general population cohort of approximately 5000 adults in rural, southwestern Uganda. Information on risk factors was ascertained through a detailed interview and physical examination by clinicians who were blind to the study subjects' HIV status. All patients were interviewed within 2 years of their estimated date of seroconversion., Results: Data were available on 130 men (37 cases, 93 controls) and 133 women (46 cases, 87 controls). There was a significantly higher risk of infection in men (odds ratio [OR], 6.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-39.84) and women (OR, 4.75; 95% CI, 1.26-17.9) who were unmarried and in a steady relationship, and in men who were divorced, separated, or widowed (OR, 4.33; 95% CI, 1.32-14.25) compared with those who were married. There was a significantly higher risk of HIV infection in men (OR, 3.78; 95% CI, 1.20-11.93) and women (OR, 20.78; 95% CI, 2.94-141.2) who reported > or =5 lifetime sexual partners compared with those who reported at most 1 partner. For men, there was an increased risk of infection associated with receiving increasing numbers of injections in the 6 months prior to interview (p < .001 for trend). Women reporting sex against their will in the year prior to interview were at higher risk of infection (OR, 7.84; 95% CI, 1.29-47.86; p = .020)., Conclusions: The strongest risk factor for HIV incidence in this rural Ugandan population is lifetime sexual partners. The increased risks found for women reporting coercive sex and men reporting injections require further investigation.

Objective: To assess whether the WHO staging classification for HIV provides prognostically valuable and applicable information in rural Uganda., Patients and Study Design: Data were obtained from a population-based cohort of 232 HIV-infected individuals., Methods: Clinical information was obtained using a detailed questionnaire and ascertained by physical examination. Participants were seen routinely every 3 months and when they were sick. A computer algorithm based on clinical history, examination and laboratory findings was used to stage HIV-positive participants at each routine visit. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and the Cox proportional hazard model were used to assess the prognostic strength of the clinical and laboratory categories of the system., Results: An attendance rate of 81% and 799 person-years of follow-up were achieved. Survival probability estimates at 6 years from being seen in clinical stages 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 63, 46, 24 and 6% respectively. When staging was revised to incorporate lymphocyte categories, the survival probabilities were 73, 62, 39 and 6% respectively. Unexplained prolonged fever and severe bacterial infection had survival probabilities closer to stage 2 conditions, mucocutaneous herpes simplex virus infection for more than 1 month and crytosporidiosis with diarrhoea for more than 1 month closer to stage 3 and oral candidiasis closer to stage 4 conditions., Conclusions: Even without the laboratory markers, the clinical category of the WHO staging system is useful for predicting survival in individuals with HIV disease. This is important for areas with limited access to laboratory markers. A simple rearrangement of a few clinical conditions could improve the prognostic significance of the WHO system.

Background: The majority of people infected with HIV-1 live in Africa, yet little is known about the natural history of the disease in that continent. We studied survival times, disease progression, and AIDS-defining disorders, according to the proposed WHO staging system, in a population-based, rural cohort in Uganda., Methods: In 1990 we recruited a random sample of people already infected with HIV-1 (as prevalent cases) detected during the initial survey round of a general-population study to form a natural-history cohort. Individuals from the general-population cohort who seroconverted between 1990 and 1995 (incident cases) were also invited to enroll. Participants were seen routinely every 3 months and when they were III., Findings: By the end of 1995, 93 prevalent cases and 86 incident cases had been enrolled. Four patients in the prevalent group were in stage 4 (AIDS) at the initial visit. During the next 5 years, 37 prevalent cases progressed to AIDS. Seven incident cases progressed to AIDS and the cumulative progression to AIDS at 1, 3, and 5 years after seroconversion was 2%, 6%, and 22%, respectively. The cumulative probability of AIDS at 4 years from entering stages 1, 2, and 3 was 11%, 33%, and 58%, respectively. There were 47 deaths among prevalent cases and seven among incident cases during follow-up. The cumulative mortality 4 years after patients entered stages 1, 2, 3, and 4 was 9%, 33%, 56%, and 86%, respectively. The median survival after the onset of AIDS was 9.3 months., Interpretation: Our results are important for the setting of priorities and rationalisation of treatment availability in countries with poor resources. We found that progression rates to AIDS are similar to those in developed countries for homosexual cohorts and greater than for cohorts infected by other modes of transmission. However, we have found that the rates of all-cause mortality are much higher and the progression times to death are shorter than in developed countries.

Objective: To describe a population-based rural cohort of HIV-1-seropositive and seronegative individuals established in 1990 in south-west Uganda, and determine survival times in the cohort., Design: Prospective cohort study., Methods: Participants were recruited from a large population study, and invited to attend a clinic every 3 months. They were seen by clinicians who administered detailed medical questionnaires and undertook a physical examination., Results: By the end of 1995, 390 (79%) of the 491 people asked to enrol in the natural history cohort (NHC) had done so. Ninety-three were prevalent cases of HIV infection detected during the initial survey round of the general population cohort in 1989/1990, 66 were subsequent incident cases, 177 were age-matched HIV-negative controls and 54 were HIV-negative spouses of HIV-positive individuals. Twenty participants seroconverted in the NHC. The age-standardized mortality rates per 1000 person-years for the prevalent, incident, and negative cases were 156.5 [95% confidence interval (CI), 115.8-211.4], 35.0 (95% CI, 16.4 75.0) and 13.5 (95% CI, 7.3-25.1), respectively. The median survival time from enrolment to death for the prevalent cases was 4.5 years (95% CI, 3.5- > 5.2); > 5.4 years from seroconversion for the incident cases; and > 5.2 years from enrolment for the HIV-negative cases. The 5-year cumulative survival for prevalents, incidents and HIV-negative participants was 46%, 83% and 94%, respectively., Conclusions: We have described an NHC of HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants which is representative of the general population. The NHC was established over 5 years ago; it is continuing and we are maintaining good compliance rates. Survival probabilities in the cohort were lower than most other reported studies.

Objective: To document the extent to which rural and urban-based male traders have sexual contacts away from their place of residence., Methods: Fifty-one traders (46 who travel by bicycle and five others) kept daily diaries of all their journeys and sexual contacts for a total of 584 person-weeks. Twenty-five were resident in a trading town where HIV prevalence was about 40% and 26 lived up to 25 km away in rural areas where HIV prevalence was approximately 8%., Results: A total of 2147 return trips were made (mean, 3.7 per week). Eighty per cent were between the trading town and the surrounding rural area. A total of 1377 sexual contacts were recorded (mean, 2.3 per week); 95% of the contacts of urban-based men occurred in the town, 3% in other urban areas and 2% in a rural area. For rural-based men 82% of sexual contacts took place in their home village, 14% in a neighbouring village, 2% in the trading town and 3% in other urban centres., Conclusion: Despite considerable economic interaction there is very little sexual mixing between the town and surrounding rural areas. This may explain why the high HIV prevalence found in some trading towns in Africa has not diffused out to rural areas.

Objective: To study in depth sexual history and sexual behaviour variables as risk factors for HIV-1 infection in a rural Ugandan population., Methods: Following a socioeconomic and serological survey of a rural population in Masaka District, south-west Uganda, 233 randomly selected HIV-1-positive cases and 233 negative controls matched on age and village of residence, were invited in October 1990 to participate in a case-control study. A total of 132 cases and 161 controls attended for in-depth investigation including an interview about sexual behaviour., Results: The factor most strongly associated with increased risk of infection was a greater number of lifetime sexual partners, with odds ratios (OR) of 2.1 and 4.9 for those reporting 4-10 and 11 or more partners, respectively, compared with those reporting less than four partners. Having only one sexual partner did not provide complete protection, a total of seven (one male, six female) subjects reporting only one sexual partner were HIV-1-positive. Other significant factors were a history of genital ulcers [OR, 2.9; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.0-9.1) and not being a Muslim (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 1.8-16.5) suggesting a possible protective effect of circumcision. There was a suggestion that those who married within the last 7 years (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 0.9-6.1) and men exposed to menstrual blood (OR, 5.7; 95% CI, 0.7-49.8) were at an increased risk of HIV-1 infection., Conclusions: These results confirm the predominant role of sexual behaviour in the HIV-1 epidemic. Of particular concern is the observation of HIV-1 infection among those reporting only one partner. Where HIV-1 infection is widely distributed in the general population, risk reduction strategies should, in addition to the promotion of partner reduction, place strong emphasis on safe-sex techniques.