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Norio Yasui-Furukori,1,2 Yasushi Kawamata,1,3 Taro Sasaki,1,4 Saaya Yokoyama,1,5 Hiroaki Okayasu,1,6 Masataka Shinozaki,1,7 Yoshitaka Takeuchi,1,8 Aoi Sato,1,9 Takaaki Ishikawa,1,10 Hazuki Komahashi-Sasaki,1,11 Kensuke Miyazaki,12 Takashi Fukasawa,13 Hanako Furukori,14 Norio Sugawara,1,2 Kazutaka Shimoda1 1Department of Psychiatry, Dokkyo Medical University, School of Medicine, Tochigi, Japan; 2Department of Psychiatry, TMC Shimotsuga, Tochigi, Japan; 3Department of Psychiatry, Kikuchi Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 4Department of Psychiatry, Asahi Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 5Department of Psychiatry, Aoki Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 6Department of Psychiatry, Fudogaoka Hospital, Saitama, Japan; 7Department of Psychiatry, Takizawa Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 8Department of Psychiatry, Okamotodai Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 9Department of Psychiatry, Muroi Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 10Department of Psychiatry, Saitama-Konan Hospital, Saitama, Japan; 11Department of Psychiatry, Kanuma Hospital, Tochigi, Japan; 12Department of Neuropsychiatry, Hirosaki-Aiseikai Hospital, Aomori, Japan; 13Department of Psychiatry, Seinan Hospital, Aomori, Japan; 14Department of Neuropsychiatry, Kuroichi-Akebono Hospital, Aomori, JapanCorrespondence: Norio Yasui-Furukori, Department of Psychiatry, Dokkyo Medical University, School of Medicine, Mibu, Shimotsuga, Tochigi, 321-0293, Japan, Tel +81-282-86-1111, Fax +81-282-86-5187, Email furukori@dokkyomed.ac.jpBackground: Recent pharmacoepidemiology data show an increase in the proportion of patients receiving second-generation antipsychotic (SGA) monotherapy, but no studies have analyzed the same patients over a long period of time. Therefore, in this study, we retrospectively evaluated schizophrenia patients with available data for 20 years to determine whether the drug treatments in the same patients have changed in the past 20 years.Methods: The study began in April 2021 and was conducted in 15 psychiatric hospitals in Japan. Schizophrenia patients treated in the same hospital for 20 years were retrospectively examined for all prescriptions in 2016, 2011, 2006, and 2001 (ie, every 5 years).Results: The mean age of the 716 patients surveyed in 2021 was 61.7 years, with 49.0% being female. The rate of antipsychotic monotherapy use showed a slight increasing trend over the past 20 years; the rate of SGA use showed a marked increasing trend from 28.9% to 70.3% over the past 20 years, while the rate of SGA monotherapy use showed a gradual increasing trend over the past 20 years. The rates of concomitant use of anticholinergics, antidepressants, anxiolytics/sleep medications, and mood stabilizers showed decreasing, flat, flat, and flat trends over the past 20 years, respectively.Conclusion: The results of this study showed a slow but steady substitution of SGAs for first-generation antipsychotics (FGAs) over time, even in the same patients.Keywords: pharmacoepidemiology, prescription, antipsychotics, trends, schizophrenia

Hiroaki Okayasu,1 Takahiro Shinozaki,1 Yumiko Takano,1 Norio Sugawara,1 Kumiko Fujii,2 Norio Yasui-Furukori,1 Yuji Ozeki,2 Kazutaka Shimoda1 1Department of Psychiatry, Dokkyo Medical University, Tochigi, Japan; 2Department of Psychiatry, Shiga University of Medical Science, Shiga, JapanCorrespondence: Hiroaki Okayasu Tel +81 282-86-1111Email hokayasu@dokkyomed.ac.jpPurpose: Antipsychotic drugs have been implicated as risk factors for QT prolongation, which is a predictor of sudden cardiac death. However, the QT interval is considered an imperfect marker for proarrhythmic risk. Recently, improved methods, namely, QT dispersion (QTD), QTD ratio (QTDR), T wave peak-to-end interval (Tp-e), Tp-e/QT ratio and Tp-e/QTc ratio, have been regarded as proarrhythmic risk markers. We attempted to reevaluate the risk of sudden cardiac death due to antipsychotics use by measuring these improved evaluation methods.Patients and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated QTc, QTD, QTDR, Tp-e, Tp-e/QT ratio and Tp-e/QTc ratio from the medical records of 410 patients with schizophrenia diagnosed by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, Text Revision, or 5th Edition. Information on drugs administered was obtained from medical records. We investigated the correlation between each index on ECG and medication, such as antipsychotics, prescribed to participants with linear regression analysis. We also compared each index between 235 healthy controls and 235 patients matched for age and sex.Results: Positive correlations between QTc and levomepromazine and brexpiprazole were identified. Levomepromazine and lithium were positively correlated with QTD. Levomepromazine, quetiapine, asenapine, clozapine and carbamazepine were positively correlated with QTDR. Levomepromazine, olanzapine, brexpiprazole and lithium were positively correlated with Tp-e. Olanzapine, brexpiprazole and lithium were positively correlated with the Tp-e/QT ratio. Olanzapine, brexpiprazole and lithium were positively correlated with Tp-e/QTc ratio. Significant differences in all indexes were noted between the patients and healthy controls.Conclusion: According to our results, the prediction of the risk of sudden cardiac death by each index was inconsistent. We should evaluate the predictive factor of ventricular arrhythmia according to various electrocardiogram indexes because QTc alone could not identify the risk of sudden cardiac death.Keywords: antipsychotic drugs, sudden cardiac death, electrocardiogram, QT prolongation, QT dispersion, T peak-to-end interval

Hiroaki Okayasu,1 Norio Yasui-Furukori,1 Taro Kadowaki,2 Kei Funakoshi,2 Koichi Hirata,2 Kazutaka Shimoda1 1Department of Psychiatry, Dokkyo Medical University, Tochigi, Japan; 2Department of Neurology, Dokkyo Medical University, Tochigi, JapanCorrespondence: Hiroaki Okayasu Tel +81-282-86-1111Email hokayasu@dokkyomed.ac.jpAbstract: Functional neurologic disorders feature nervous system symptoms that cannot be explained by a neurological disease or other medical condition. The patient described here was a 21-year-old Japanese woman who was initially diagnosed with a functional neurologic disorder based on numbness and weakness of the limbs with no abnormalities in routine examinations. Further detailed examinations revealed monocytes in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and electroencephalography revealed widespread, low-voltage, slow waves with concentrated spindle waves. Thus, encephalitis was suspected, and steroid pulse therapy was initiated. Her symptoms subsequently improved. Afterward, CSF analysis was positive for serum anti-GQ1b IgG antibodies. We made a final diagnosis of Bickerstaff’s brainstem encephalitis (BBE). Our report describes the difficult differentiation of functional neurologic disorders from BBE. Physicians and psychiatrists should be aware of BBE.Keywords: Bickerstaff’s brainstem encephalitis, functional neurologic disorder, Guillain-Barré syndrome, Miller Fisher syndrome, consciousness disturbance

Research describing the assessment of apple juice characteristics by trained and untrained panels is presented. In particular a comparison of clarified with unclarified apple juice is investigated.

Background: Following spinal cord injury (SCI), gait function reaches a post-recovery plateau that depends on the paralysis severity. However, the plateau dynamics during the recovery period are not known. This study aimed to examine the gait function temporal dynamics after traumatic cervical SCI (CSCI) based on paralysis severity., Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 122 patients with traumatic CSCI admitted to a single specialized facility within 2 weeks after injury. The Walking Index for Spinal Cord Injury II (WISCI II) was estimated at 2 weeks and 2, 4, 6, and 8 months postinjury for each American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) grade, as determined 2 weeks postinjury. Statistical analysis was performed at 2 weeks to 2 months, 2-4 months, 4-6 months, and 6-8 months, and the time at which no significant difference was observed was considered the time at which the gait function reached a plateau., Results: In the AIS grade A and B groups, no significant differences were observed at any time point, while in the AIS grade C group, the mean WISCI II values continued to significantly increase up to 6 months. In the AIS grade D group, the improvement in gait function was significant during the entire observation period., Conclusions: The plateau in gait function recovery was reached at 2 weeks postinjury in the AIS grade A and B groups and at 6 months in the AIS grade C group., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

We clarified non-radiographic physical parameters associated with the severity of adult spinal deformity (ASD) using community-dwelling adult volunteers. They were subjected to upright entire spine radiographs for standard radiographic parameters and the number of sagittal modifiers of SRS-Schwab ASD classification (Schwab-SM). Clinical evaluations included isometric muscle strength of trunk extensor (TEX), trunk flexor (TFL), quadriceps femoris (QF), gluteus maximus, and iliopsoas; range of motion (ROM) of hip, knee, ankle, and active back extension (BET); SF36 physical component score (PCS), VAS for back and knee pain, and the degree of ambulatory kyphosis (dTIA). Each muscle strength was calibrated by body weight (BW) and expressed as BW ratio. According to our previous study, dTIA ≥ 7.6° was defined as pathological and dTIA ≤ 3.5° as normal. A final total of 409 female volunteers were included, and their demographics were; age 67.0 ± 5.5 years, Schwab-SM 2.1 ± 1.8, TEX 0.90 ± 0.33BW, TFL 0.48 ± 0.15BW, QF 0.45 ± 0.19BW, PCS 33.5 ± 6.5. Subjects were classified as clinical ASD group (cASD, n = 10) with PCS ≤ 27(mean-1SD) and pathological dTIA, robust group (n = 19) with PCS ≥ 40 (mean + 1SD) and normal dTIA, and the rest (non-cASD, n = 338). Statistical analyses showed significant differences in TEX, TFL, QF, knee extension (KEX), and BET between robust and cASD, and the mean values of robust group (TEX ≥ 1.1BW, TFL ≥ 0.5BW, QF ≥ 0.5BW, KEX ≥ 0° and BET ≥ 14 cm) were used as 'ASD-MJ' index. Subjects with fully achieving ASD-MJ goals showed significantly better radiographic and clinical outcomes than those with unmet goals. In conclusion, upon prescribing conservative or physical therapies for ASD patients, modifiable clinical goals should be clarified, and ASD-MJ could be a benchmark., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), available since 1955, became the first vaccine to be used to protect against poliomyelitis. While the immunogenicity of IPV to prevent paralytic poliomyelitis continues to be irrefutable, its requirement for strong containment (due to large quantities of live virus used in the manufacturing process), perceived lack of ability to induce intestinal mucosal immunity, high cost and increased complexity to administer compared to oral polio vaccine (OPV), have limited its use in the global efforts to eradicate poliomyelitis. In order to harvest the full potential of IPV, a program of work has been carried out by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) over the past two decades that has focused on: (1) increasing the scientific knowledge base of IPV; (2) translating new insights and evidence into programmatic action; (3) expanding the IPV manufacturing infrastructure for global demand; and (4) continuing to pursue an ambitious research program to develop more immunogenic and safer-to-produce vaccines. While the knowledge base of IPV continues to expand, further research and product development are necessary to ensure that the program priorities are met (e.g., non-infectious production through virus-like particles, non-transmissible vaccine inducing humoral and intestinal mucosal immunity and new methods for house-to-house administration through micro-needle patches and jet injectors), the discussions have largely moved from whether to how to use this vaccine most effectively. In this review, we summarize recent developments on expanding the science base of IPV and provide insight into policy development and the expansion of IPV manufacturing and production, and finally we provide an update on the current priorities.

Background: Constipation is a common adverse effect of antipsychotics, but little investigation has been conducted. We aimed to address the factors associated with the initiation of laxative use in the same patients with schizophrenia over a 20-year period., Methods: We enrolled patients with schizophrenia attending each hospital (n = 14) from April 1, 2021, and retrospectively examined all prescriptions as of April 1, 2016, 2011, 2006, and 2001, every 5 years starting in 2021, for this population. 716 participants with complete data were included in the analysis. The Cochran Q test followed by Bonferroni correction and the Cochran-Armitage trend test were used to determine the differences and trends of the frequency of each laxative. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the factors on the initiation of laxative use over a 20-year period., Results: Of the patients, 25.1% were treated with laxatives in 2001, and 34.1% were treated in 2021. The numbers of patients treated with any laxatives significantly differed over the 20-year period, with a significant increasing trend. In all laxatives, the numbers of patients treated with magnesium oxide, lubiprostone and elobixibat differed with a significant increasing trend. Female sex, age, the total DZP equivalent dose, and the doses of levomepromazine maleate, olanzapine, quetiapine, zotepine, lithium, and carbamazepine in 2021 were significant factors associated with the initiation of laxative use over the 20-year period., Conclusions: Careful monitoring is needed for patients treated with levomepromazine maleate, olanzapine, quetiapine and zotepine. Optimizing prescriptions according to treatment guidelines could reduce antipsychotic-induced constipation., (© 2023 The Authors. Neuropsychopharmacology Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Japanese Society of Neuropsychopharmacology.)

Aim: This study examined the collective characteristics of nurses and their stress coping style., Methods: We conducted a cluster analysis of the stress coping strategies of 841 nurses belonging to Dokkyo Medical University Hospital, as measured by the Brief COPE (Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced). We also conducted multivariate analyses of each cluster's sociodemographic characteristics, personality traits, depressive symptoms, work attitudes, sense of fairness, and turnover intention., Results: The results of cluster analysis using the standardized z scores of the Brief COPE demonstrated that the study participants were classified into three clusters. The "emotional-response type" tended to favor the use of emotional support, venting, and self-blame. The "reality-escape type" tended to prefer alcohol and substance use, behavioral resignation, use of instrumental support, and lack of acceptance. The "problem-solving type" tended to prefer planning, positive reframing, and acceptance and to dislike "alcohol and substance use" and behavioral disengagement. A multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that compared to the problem-solving type, the emotional-response type had a lower job title, a higher "neuroticism" score on the TIPI-J, and a higher K6 score. However, compared to the problem-solving type, the reality-escape type was younger, consumed more alcohol and substances, and had a higher K6 score., Conclusions: Stress coping styles were found to be associated with substance use, depressive symptoms, and personality traits among nurses in higher education institutions. Thus, the results suggest that nurses who choose maladaptive stress coping styles require mental support and early identification of depressive symptoms and alcohol problems., (© 2023 The Authors. Neuropsychopharmacology Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Japanese Society of Neuropsychopharmacology.)

The Western Pacific Region is experiencing rapid population ageing, which has implications for almost all areas of society. Countries will need to prepare for population ageing by investing in health and optimizing living environments. This requires a whole-of-society approach to healthy ageing. Countries in the Western Pacific Region have been making significant progress in healthy ageing. Since the endorsement of the Regional Action Plan on Healthy Ageing, younger societies have also started preparing for population ageing, focusing on social and health systems transformation, community-based integrated care, social and technological innovations and research, monitoring and evaluation. As more countries are interested in healthy ageing and preparing for necessary social and health systems transformation, the case studies in this article can be an inspiration for Member States to transform their approaches to achieving a society where older adults are healthier and can participate fully., Competing Interests: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose., (2023, National Center for Global Health and Medicine.)

Competing Interests: No conflict of interest.

Objective: Schizophrenia patients treated with antipsychotics are at higher risk of sudden cardiac death. Decreased deceleration capacity (DC) of the heart rate is an accurate predictor of cardiac mortality. We evaluated the risk of sudden cardiac death due to antipsychotic use by assessing DC and examining the association between DC and the corrected QT interval (QTc) in schizophrenia patients., Methods: We measured the DC and QTc of 138 schizophrenia patients. We then compared the DC of 86 age- and sex-matched healthy controls with that of 86 schizophrenia patients. We investigated the correlation of DC of approximately 138 schizophrenia patients with prescribed doses of antipsychotics using linear regression analysis. We compared the DC of schizophrenia patients with and without prolonged QT intervals., Results: We found DC significantly differed between schizophrenia patients on antipsychotic medication and healthy controls. Additionally, DC was negatively correlated with antipsychotic use, especially chlorpromazine, zotepine, olanzapine and clozapine, in a dose-dependent manner. There was no significant association between DC and the QTc., Conclusion: Assessing DC could facilitate monitoring and identification of increased risk of cardiac mortality in patients with schizophrenia that take antipsychotics. Assessing both DC and the QTc may enhance the accuracy of predicting sudden cardiac death., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest for this work., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: Nurses are an essential human resource for the healthcare system. However, high turnover of nurses is a current issue. Reducing the high turnover of nurses is crucial for facilitating the sustainable provision of care in hospitals. The purpose of this study was to explore the factors affecting nurses' intentions to leave among nurses in an advanced medical center., Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, we conducted a questionnaire survey of nurses working at an academic medical center in August 2020. Of the 1063 distributed questionnaires, there were 821 (77.2%) valid responses. The questionnaire included items on the Kessler 6 (K6), New Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (New BJSQ), Organizational Justice Questionnaire (OJQ), and intention to leave a hospital job., Results: Overall, the mean age of the nurses was 34.3 ± 10.1 years and 87.8% (721/821) of them were female. Among respondents, 19.5% (160/821) had a strong intention to leave. After adjusting for all the variables, a logistic regression analysis revealed that longer working hours, job rank (staff nurse), work-self-balance positive (imbalance), workplace harassment (no bullying), and interactional justice (unfair supervisor) were determinants associated with strong intentions to leave., Conclusions: Approximately one-fifth of nurses working at advanced medical center had a strong intention to leave. However, our findings can help managers predict the turnover of nurses by understanding occupational characteristics. Managing work-self-balance and treating staff fairly could improve work environments. Further research focusing on the outcome of actual turnover rather than intention to leave is needed., Competing Interests: Kazutaka Shimoda has received research support from Novartis Pharma, Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma, Astellas Pharma, Meiji Seika Pharma, Eisai, Pfizer, Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Daiichi Sankyo, and Takeda Pharmaceutical and honoraria from Eisai, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Meiji Seika Pharma, Janssen Pharmaceutical, Shionogi, Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, and Pfizer. The remaining authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.)

Aim: Balancing between personal and working life of nurses is important to increase their job satisfaction and to continue their careers. Our purpose was to investigate the relationship between nurses and work-self balance (WSB) at different phases of life, such as age, marriage and raising children, and the occupational factors that influence WSB that can be used to improve the work environment for nurses., Methods: Using a self-administered questionnaire, we asked about gender, age, marital status, presence of children, working hours, and night shift. Occupational stresses, including WSB, were assessed with the New Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (New BJSQ) and the Organizational Justice Questionnaire (OJQ). The total number of unmarried and married respondents was 819. We investigated whether marital status and cohabiting children make a difference in WSB in the three age groups (less than 30 years, 31-40 years, and more than 41 years) using a Mann-Whitney U test. In addition, we examined occupational factors affecting WSB using multiple regression analysis., Results: The value of WSB negative was significantly greater in the group of married persons than in the group of unmarried persons ( p  < 0.05) and was significantly greater in the group with cohabiting children than in the group without cohabiting children ( p  < 0.01) only in the group aged 31-40 years. Multiple regression analysis indicated that significant occupational factors affecting WSB differed by each age group., Conclusion: This survey showed that the factors and degree of WSB vary according to the generation and family environment of nurses., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.N/A, (© 2022 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences Reports published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.)

Background: Catatonia is a severe condition in patients. Electroconvulsive treatment or medication with benzodiazepines and/or antipsychotics are regarded as standard treatment., Case Presentation: We report a case of a patient with catatonic features in whom electroconvulsive treatment and benzodiazepine and/or antipsychotic medications failed to achieve efficacy. Additional treatment with lithium ameliorated catatonia., Conclusion: We concluded that lithium is an optional treatment in patients in whom standard treatment failed.

Objective: Some antidepressants have been implicated as risk factors for QT prolongation, which is a predictor of sudden cardiac death. However, the QT interval is considered an imperfect biomarker for proarrhythmic risk. Therefore, we reevaluated the risk of sudden cardiac death due to antidepressants using improved., Methods: , namely, QT dispersion (QTD), T wave peak-to-end interval (Tp-e), and Tp-e/QT ratio., Methods: We compared the effects of antidepressants on QTc (QT/RR1/3), QTD, Tp-e, and Tp-e/QT ratio in 378 patients with mood disorder. We also compared each index between 165 healthy controls and 215 randomly selected age-matched patients., Results: Age (p<0.01), sex (p<0.05), tricyclic antidepressant (TCA) use (p<0.05), and clomipramine (p<0.01) and mianserin (p<0.05) use in particular, significantly associated with a prolonged QTc. We also found that age (p<0.01), TCA use (p<0.05), and clomipramine (p<0.01) and mianserin (p<0.05) use in particular, significantly prolonged QTD. However, there was no correlation between each variable and Tp-e or Tp-e/QT ratio. Significant differences in QTc and QTD were found between the patients and healthy controls., Conclusion: From our results, prediction of risk of sudden cardiac death by QTD, Tp-e, or Tp-e/QT ratio was inconsistent. Increased QTD may be more suitable for predicting sudden cardiac death due to antidepressants.

Sox9 plays critical roles in testis formation. By mapping four familial cases of disorders of sexual development, a 32.5 kb sequence located far upstream of SOX9 was previously identified as being a commonly deleted region and named the XY sex reversal region (XYSR). To narrow down a responsible sequence in XYSR, we generated mutant mice with a series of deletions in XYSR by application of the CRISPR/Cas9 system, using a mixture of sgRNAs targeting several kilobase (kb) intervals in the region. When the whole XYSR corresponding sequence in mice was deleted in XY karyotype individuals, the mutation resulted in female offspring, suggesting that an expression mechanism of SOX9/Sox9 through XYSR is conserved in human and mouse. Male-to-female sex reversal was found in mice with a 4.8 kb deletion. We identified a sequence conserved among humans, mice, and opossum, the deletion of which (783 bp) in mice resulted in male-to-female sex reversal. The sequence includes a recently reported critical gonad enhancer for Sox9. Although it cannot be concluded that the human sequence is responsible for XYSR, it is likely. This method is applicable for fine mapping of responsible sequences for disease-causing deletions especially with regard to rare diseases.

Eradication of poliomyelitis remains a public health priority due to the paralytic effects of the virus on children and impact on global health system. However, existing gaps in surveillance can hinder eradication. Improved timeliness of identification and reporting of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases with further confirmation of Wild Poliovirus (WPV) in stool samples, can help Nigeria achieve the performance indicators of non-polio AFP rate of ≥ 2/100,000 population aged < 15 years and ≥80% stool sample collection adequacy. To ascertain the awareness of AFP case definition and detection by health care workers and to evaluate the impact of SMS-based reporting on the AFP surveillance system the study was conducted from November 2013 to July 2014. In Sokoto state, 112 health facilities (focal sites) were operational and participated in this study. All AFP focal points for the 112 facilities were included in the study. In addition to AFP focal points, two clinicians per facility where possible, were included in the study. The study focused exclusively on reports from focal sites. The methodology was a one group pretest-posttest design conducted in 3 phases. 1) Pre-intervention Knowledge, Attitude and Practices (KAP) survey, 2) SMS implementation and 3) Post-intervention KAP. Results were analysed using the independent sample t-test to assess the increase in knowledge, attitudes, or practice scores pre- and post- training. The study showed improved knowledge gap of health care workers on AFP surveillance between pre and post intervention. It shows that this approach of improved surveillance will be effective in countries in hard to reach, access compromised or countries/place without sufficient surveillance staff., Competing Interests: Conflicts of Interest The Authors declare no conflict of interest

Background: To support poliomyelitis eradication in Pakistan, environmental surveillance (ES) of wastewater has been expanded alongside surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). ES is a relatively new method of surveillance, and the population sensitivity of detecting poliovirus within endemic settings requires estimation., Methods: Data for wild serotype 1 poliovirus from AFP and ES from January 2011 to September 2015 from 14 districts in Pakistan were analysed using a multi-state model framework. This framework was used to estimate the sensitivity of poliovirus detection from each surveillance source and parameters such as the duration of infection within a community., Results: The location and timing of poliomyelitis cases showed spatial and temporal variability. The sensitivity of AFP surveillance to detect serotype 1 poliovirus infection in a district and its neighbours per month was on average 30.0% (95% CI 24.8-35.8) and increased with the incidence of poliomyelitis cases. The average population sensitivity of a single environmental sample was 59.4% (95% CI 55.4-63.0), with significant variation in site-specific estimates (median varied from 33.3-79.2%). The combined population sensitivity of environmental and AFP surveillance in a given month was on average 98.1% (95% CI 97.2-98.7), assuming four samples per month for each site., Conclusions: ES can be a highly sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance in areas with converging sewage systems. As ES for poliovirus is expanded, it will be important to identify factors associated with variation in site sensitivity, leading to improved site selection and surveillance system performance.