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This study examined the causal relationship between ICT, income inequality and economic growth in South Africa using data from 1990 to 2021. Three measures of ICT were used in the study, namely fixed telephone lines subscription, mobile cellular subscriptions and the proportion of people using the internet to the total population. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag approach, the study found a unidirectional causal flow from income inequality to ICT across all measures of ICT employed. Another unidirectional causal flow from economic growth to ICT was found in the short run when ICT was measured by fixed telephone lines and mobile cellular. When internet access was used as a measure of ICT, a bidirectional causality between internet access and economic growth in the short run and a unidirectional causal flow from internet access to economic growth was confirmed. Across all three measures of ICT, no causal relationship was confirmed between economic growth and income inequality. The study points to the importance of economic growth in increasing ICT access and the crucial role that internet access has on economic growth in South Africa. Policy implications are discussed.

In this study, the influence of economic growth on income disparities in 29 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries is investigated for the period 2005-2015. The primary objective of the study is to empirically test Kuznets’ hypothesis, which holds that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and income inequality. The study examined this relationship using four proxies for income inequality: the composite inequality index, the Atkinson index, the Gini coefficient, and the Palma ratio. Using a modified version of a difference generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique, it was found that regardless of the proxy used to measure income inequality, there is a consistently significant negative relationship between income per capita (y) and income inequality in the countries under study. A consistent positive relationship was also found between the square of income per capita (y2) and income inequality across all the proxies used in the study. The study found that the relationship between economic growth and income inequality follows a U-curve. The result suggests that while economic growth initially lowers income inequality, inequality eventually rises in tandem with growth. This suggests that the bulk of the studied economies in the SSA region are situated on the downward portion of the U-curve. The policy implications are discussed.

This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire using time series data from 1972 to 2021. The analyses were performed using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The study also utilised the bounds F-test for cointegration, the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) nonlinearity test, and the Wald test for asymmetries. The findings of the bounds F-test provide support for both linear and nonlinear cointegration. The BDS test results indicate that the series are nonlinear, while Wald test results revealed an asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire in the short run and symmetric relationship in the long run. Estimation results for the symmetric ARDL regression model provide no evidence of a statistically significant impact of public debt on economic growth, regardless of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The NARDL findings indicate that, on average, positive changes to public debt lead to economic decline in the long run, while negative changes cause an economic upturn in the short run. The findings also show that GDP growth responds rapidly and strongly to negative changes in public debt. Therefore, the study encourages the government of Côte d'Ivoire to be cautious about public debt rise because it was established that they have a negative impact on economic growth. Negative changes in the public debt can serve to minimise the uncertainties in the business environment, thus promoting private, public, and foreign direct investments.

In this study, the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Botswana is re-examined using disaggregated data from 1980 to 2020 on financial development. The importance of financial development and economic growth in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) cannot be overemphasised. The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and the ECM-based Granger causality test to examine this linkage. Financial development is measured at an aggregate level by the Financial Development Index (FDI) and at a disaggregate level by the Financial Institution Index (FII) and Financial Market Index (FMI) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) financial development index database. The study failed to find any causality between financial development and economic growth during the study period. The results apply, irrespective of proxy used to measure the level of financial development and the time frame. This finding points to the importance for Botswana to continue with the Vision 2036 and the National Development Plans that focus, among other goals, on economic growth, to realise an increase in gross fixed capital formation and financial development.

Several studies have identified the impact of total public debt on inflation. These studies are based on the assumption of a symmetric relationship between these variables. However, because different governments react to changes in total public debt (positive or negative) differently, this study employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to investigate the nature of the link between total public debt and inflation in the Gambia for the period from 1978 to 2019. The results indicate an asymmetric relationship between total public debt and inflation, irrespective of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The coefficient of a positive shock in total public debt is statistically significant in the short run and in the long run, suggesting the inflationary effect of positive variation in total public debt in the Gambia. On the other hand, the effect of a negative shock is not statistically significant in the short run or in the long run. These findings reinforce the need for government to approach increase in public debt with caution to minimise volatility in inflation. Overall, this study provides a fresh insight into the optimal estimation technique for testing the public debt–inflation nexus through a nonlinear approach.

This study investigated the impact of energy consumption on human development in South Africa, using annual data from 1990 to 2019. The study used disaggregated data on energy measures namely: oil products consumption; electricity consumption; renewable energy consumption; natural gas; coal and lignite; and total energy consumption at an aggregate level. Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a measure of human development. By employing autoregressive distributed lag bounds test to cointegration and error correction model, the study found the impact of energy consumption on human development to be positive in the short run when renewable energy was used as a proxy, but insignificant in the long run. When oil products, natural gas and total energy were used as proxies for energy, a negative impact was confirmed in the short run, while an insignificant impact was confirmed in the long run. When electricity, coal and lignite were used as proxies for energy, an insignificant impact was confirmed, irrespective of the time frame considered. The results revealed that the positive impact of renewable energy on human development is not big enough to offset the negative impact of other energy sources. This suggests that South Africa has to continue to expand renewable energy if a positive impact of energy on human development is to be realized.

We examine the cyclicality of government expenditure and the impact of fiscal rules in a panel of five East African Community (EAC) countries using annual data for the period 1980–2019. The analysis is based on pooled ordinary least squares and panel autoregressive distributed lag regressions. We find that government consumption is acyclical while investment is procyclical. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that fiscal policy became less procyclical following the adoption of fiscal rules consistent with the EAC macroeconomic convergence criteria. These results highlight the importance of strengthening the scope and implementation of existing fiscal rules to facilitate the complete transition to countercyclical fiscal policy stance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we re-examine the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in 27 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 1990-2019. Unlike some previous studies, we clustered SSA countries into two groups, namely low-income and middle-income countries. We also employed three panel data techniques in a stepwise fashion, namely the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and heterogeneous Granger non-causality approaches. Our results show that while the positive impact of FDI on economic growth is supported by both DOLS and FMOLS techniques in low-income countries, in middle-income countries only the DOLS technique supports this finding. This shows that the impact of FDI may be sensitive to the level of income of the recipient country. Overall, the results show that FDI inflows play a larger role in stimulating economic growth in low-income SSA countries than in middle-income SSA countries. These findings are also corroborated by heterogeneous Granger non-causality results. However, these findings are not surprising, given that many low-income countries tend to be more dependent on inward FDI inflows to stimulate their economic growth than middle- income countries. Policy recommendations are discussed.

The study seeks to empirically test the hypothesis that public debt has a significant influence on inflation in Zimbabwe, covering the period 1980-2020. The study was motivated by recent trends in public debt and domestic inflation in Zimbabwe, and the need to guide debt-inflation related policy. These latest trends have started to ring alarming bells, which raises questions on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in bringing macroeconomic stability in the country. Applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to cointegration and an error correction mechanism (ECM), expanded by incorporating structural breaks, the study finds evidence in support of positive and significant impact of public debt on inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe, particularly in the long run. Based on the findings, public debt dynamics matter for inflation process in Zimbabwe. That is, fiscal policy can be considered to be an important determinant of the effectiveness of monetary policy in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the government should be mindful of increases in public debt as this was found to be inflationary.

This study investigates the impact of foreign capital inflows on poverty in Vietnam, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2018. The study was motivated by the need to establish if burgeoning foreign capital inflows in Vietnam can support the poverty alleviation agenda. Foreign direct investment (FDI) and external debt were used as proxies for foreign capital inflows; and infant mortality rate, Human Development Index (HDI) and household consumption expenditure were used as poverty proxies. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study found foreign direct investment to reduce poverty in the short run and long run when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure. However, the study found FDI to worsen poverty in the short run when infant mortality rate and HDI were used as poverty proxies. The study found external debt to have poverty mitigating effect in the short run regardless of the poverty measure used and in the long run only when household consumption expenditure was used as a poverty measure.

In this paper, the extant literature on the impact of external shocks on monetary policy effectiveness with reference to non-WAEMU countries is reviewed. The importance of this literature review is to provide contemporary perspectives to scholars and policymakers on the relevance of the incidence of external shocks to the effectiveness of monetary policy with reference to non-WAEMU countries. The literature reviewed in this study shows that, on the whole, the extent and the degree to which external shocks are transmitted to the domestic economy substantially depend on a plethora of features, namely the absence of exchange rate flexibility; a strong export concentration, especially with respect to commodities; the level of global economic integration; restricted capacities of production; the absence of competitiveness in exports; over-reliance on foreign aid; foreign reserves that are not adequate and capital account openness.