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BackgroundDespite their well-established benefits for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, robust evidence on the effects of statins on cognition is largely inconclusive. We apply various study designs and analytical approaches to mimic randomized controlled trial effects from observational data.MethodsWe used observational data from 5 580 participants enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study from 1989/1990 to 1999/2000. We conceptualized the cohort as an overlapping sequence of nonrandomized trials. We compared multiple selection (eligible population, prevalent users, new users) and analytic approaches (multivariable adjustment, inverse-probability treatment weights, propensity score matching) to evaluate the association between statin use and 5-year change in global cognitive function, assessed using the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE).ResultsWhen comparing prevalent users to nonusers (N = 2 772), statin use was associated with slower cognitive decline over 5 years (adjusted annual change in 3MSE = 0.34 points/year; 95% CI: 0.05-0.63). Compared to prevalent user design, estimates from new user designs (eg, comparing eligible statin initiators to noninitiators) were attenuated showing either null or negative association, though not significant. For example, in a propensity score-matched sample of statin-eligible individuals (N = 454), the annual 3MS change comparing statin initiators to noninitiators was -0.21 points/year (95% CI: -0.81 to 0.39).ConclusionsThe association of statin use and cognitive decline is attenuated toward the null when using rigorous analytical approaches that more closely mimic randomized controlled trials. Point estimates, even within the same study, may vary depending on the analytical methods used. Further studies that leverage natural or quasi experiments around statin use are needed to replicate our findings.

Racial residential segregation is associated with multiple adverse health outcomes in Black individuals. Yet, the influence of structural racism and racial residential segregation on brain aging is less understood. In this study, we investigated the association between cumulative exposure to racial residential segregation over 25 years (1985-2010) in young adulthood, as measured by the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and year 25 measures of brain volume (cerebral, gray matter, white matter, and hippocampal volumes) in midlife. We studied 290 Black participants with available brain imaging data who were enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, a prospective cohort study. CARDIA investigators originally recruited 2,637 Black participants aged 18-30 years from 4 field centers across the United States. We conducted analyses using marginal structural models, incorporating inverse probability of treatment weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting. We found that compared with low/medium segregation, greater cumulative exposure to a high level of racial residential segregation throughout young adulthood was associated with smaller brain volumes in general (e.g., for cerebral volume, β = -0.08, 95% confidence interval: -0.15, -0.02) and with a more pronounced reduction in hippocampal volume, though results were not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that exposure to segregated neighborhoods may be associated with worse brain aging.

BackgroundLittle is known about long-term lipid variability in young adulthood in relation to cognitive function and brain integrity in midlife.MethodWe studied 3 328 adults from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults. We defined low- and high-density lipoprotein (LDL and HDL) variability as the intraindividual standard deviation of lipid measurements over 20 years of young adulthood (1985-2005). Cognitive tests were administered in 2010. Brain scans were performed in 2010 on 714 participants. To facilitate comparison, cognitive tests and brain metrics were z-scored.ResultsMean age at baseline was 25.4 years. Higher 20-year LDL variability was associated with worse verbal memory in midlife (β = -0.25, 95% CI: -0.42, -0.08), adjusted for important covariates. Higher 20-year HDL variability was associated with worse processing speed in midlife (β = -0.80, 95% CI: -1.18, -0.41) and brain integrity, for example, smaller total brain volume (β = -0.58, 95% CI: -0.82, -0.34) and worse total brain fractional anisotropy (β = -1.13, 95% CI: -1.87, -0.39).ConclusionsHigher long-term lipid variability in adulthood was associated with worse cognition and brain integrity in midlife, in a relatively young cohort.

BackgroundAging is accompanied by an overall dysregulation of many dynamic physiologic processes including those related to blood pressure (BP). While year-to-year BP variability is associated with cardiovascular events and mortality, no studies have examined this trend with more frequent BP assessments. Our study objective is to take the next step to examine week-to-week BP dynamics-pattern, variability, and complexity-before death.MethodsUsing a retrospective study design, we assessed BP dynamics in the 6 months before death in long-term nursing home residents between 1 October 2006 and 30 September 2017. Variability was characterized using SD and mean squared error after adjusting for diurnal variations. Complexity (i.e., amount of novel information in a trend) was examined using Shannon's entropy (bits). Generalized linear models were used to examine factors associated with overall BP variability.ResultsWe identified 17,953 nursing home residents (98.0% male, 82.5% White, mean age 80.2 years, and mean BP 125.7/68.6 mm Hg). Despite a slight trend of decreasing systolic week-to-week BP over time (delta = 7.2 mm Hg), week-to-week complexity did not change in the 6 months before death (delta = 0.02 bits). Average weekly BP variability was stable until the last 3-4 weeks of life, at which point variability increased by 30% for both systolic and diastolic BP. Factors associated with BP variability include average weekly systolic/diastolic BP, days in the nursing home, days in the hospital, and changes to antihypertensive medications.ConclusionsWeek-to-week BP variability increases substantially in the last month of life, but complexity does not change. Changes in care patterns may drive the increase in BP variability as one approaches death.

BackgroundCertain classes of antihypertensive medication may have different associations with cognitive impairment.ObjectiveTo examine the association between prevalent use of antihypertensive medications that stimulate (thiazides, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, angiotensin type I receptor blockers) versus inhibit (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers, non-dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers) type 2 and 4 angiotensin II receptors on cognitive impairment among older adults residing in Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes for long-term care.MethodsRetrospective cohort study. Long-term care residents aged 65 + years admitted to a VA nursing home from 2012 to 2019 using blood pressure medication and without cognitive impairment at admission. Main exposure was prevalent use of angiotensin II receptor type 2 and 4-'stimulating' (N = 589), 'inhibiting' (N = 3,219), or 'mixed' (N = 1,715) antihypertensive medication regimens at admission. Primary outcome was any cognitive impairment (Cognitive Function Scale).ResultsOver an average of 5.4 months of follow-up, prevalent use of regimens containing exclusively 'stimulating' antihypertensives was associated with a lower risk of any incident cognitive impairment as compared to prevalent use of regimens containing exclusively 'inhibiting' antihypertensives (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.93). Results for the comparison between 'mixed' versus 'inhibiting' regimens were in the same direction but not statistically significant (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.88-1.06).ConclusionFor residents without cognitive impairment at baseline, prevalent users of regimens containing exclusively antihypertensives that stimulate type 2 and 4 angiotensin II receptors had lower rates of cognitive impairment as compared to prevalent users of regimens containing exclusively antihypertensives that inhibit these receptors. Residual confounding cannot be ruled out.

ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence of deprescribing of antihypertensive medication among older adults residing in Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes for long-term care and rates of deprescribing after potentially triggering events.DesignRetrospective cohort study.Setting and participantsLong-term care residents aged 65 years and older admitted to a VA nursing home from 2006 to 2019 and using blood pressure medication at admission.MethodsData were extracted from the VA electronic health record, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Minimum Data Set and Bar Code Medication Administration. Deprescribing was defined on a rolling basis as a reduction in the number or dose of antihypertensive medications, sustained for ≥2 weeks. We examined potentially triggering events for deprescribing, including low blood pressure (

PurposeThe association between CVD risk factors and mortality is well established, however, current tools for addressing subgroups have focused on the overall burden of disease. The identification of risky combinations of characteristics may lead to a better understanding of physiologic pathways that underlie morbidity and mortality in older adults.MethodsParticipants included 5067 older adults from the Cardiovascular Health Study, followed for up to 6 years. Using latent class analysis (LCA), we created CV damage phenotypes based on probabilities of abnormal brain infarctions, major echocardiogram abnormalities, N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, troponin T, interleukin-6, c reactive-protein, galectin-3, cystatin C. We assigned class descriptions based on the probability of having an abnormality among risk factors, such that a healthy phenotype would have low probabilities in all risk factors. Participants were assigned to phenotypes based on the maximum probability of membership. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression to evaluate the association between the categorical CV damage phenotype and all-cause and CVD-mortality.ResultsThe analysis yielded 5 CV damage phenotypes consistent with the following descriptions: healthy (59%), cardio-renal (11%), cardiac (15%), multisystem morbidity (6%), and inflammatory (9%). All four phenotypes were statistically associated with a greater risk of all-cause mortality when compared with the healthy phenotype. The multisystem morbidity phenotype had the greatest risk of all-cause death (HR: 4.02; 95% CI: 3.44, 4.70), and CVD-mortality (HR: 4.90, 95% CI: 3.95, 6.06).ConclusionsFive CV damage phenotypes emerged from CVD risk factor measures. CV damage across multiple systems confers a greater mortality risk compared to damage in any single domain.

ObjectiveTo determine whether cerebral small vessel disease or disability modify the effect of SBP treatment on cognitive and vascular outcomes in older patients with recent lacunar stroke.MethodsParticipants aged at least 65 years of the Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes Trial were randomized to a higher (130-149 mmHg) or lower (

PurposeAlthough social support has been shown to be associated with survival among persons with cardiovascular disease, little research has focused on whether social support, measured before the onset of heart failure, can enhance survival after diagnosis. The objective of this study was to assess the association between prediagnosis social support and postdiagnosis survival among older adults with heart failure.MethodsWe obtained the data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, which included noninstitutionalized adults aged 65 years or older from four sites in the United States with primary enrollment in 1989-1990. We used two measures of social support, the Lubben Social Network Scale and the Interpersonal Support Evaluation List. The analytic data set included 529 participants with a social support measure within two years before diagnosis of heart failure.ResultsAfter adjustment for demographic covariates, cardiovascular risk factors, and general health status, mortality rates were lower among participants in the highest tertile of social network scores (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.93) and the middle tertile (HR 0.73 [0.58, 0.90]), compared with the lowest tertile. Results with interpersonal support were null.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that prediagnosis structural social support may modestly buffer heart failure patients from mortality.

Heterogeneous exposure associations (HEAs) can be defined as differences in the association of an exposure with an outcome among subgroups that differ by a set of characteristics. In this article, we intend to foster discussion of HEAs in the epidemiologic literature and present a variant of the random forest algorithm that can be used to identify HEAs. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm in the setting of the association between systolic blood pressure and death in older adults. The training set included pooled data from the baseline examination of the Cardiovascular Health Study (1989-1993), the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (1997-1998), and the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (1998-1999). The test set included data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2002). The hazard ratios ranged from 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.13, 1.37) per 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure among men aged ≤67 years with diastolic blood pressure greater than 80 mm Hg to 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.03) among women with creatinine concentration ≤0.7 mg/dL and a history of hypertension. HEAs have the potential to improve our understanding of disease mechanisms in diverse populations and guide the design of randomized controlled trials to control exposures in heterogeneous populations.

Negative affect (NA) and positive affect (PA) are established modifiable psychosocial correlates of cognitive health and have demonstrated capacity for meaningful within-person fluctuations based on person--environment interactions, age, and measurement approach. Previous research has shown NA is associated with increased response time inconsistency (RTI), an early performance-based indicator of cognitive health and aging. It is unclear, however, whether PA is associated with RTI and whether affect-RTI associations exist within persons over time or change as individuals get older. We utilized data from a measurement burst study (Cognition, Health, and Aging Project) to explore within- and between-person associations between affect and RTI in community-dwelling older adults (N = 111, M = 80.04 years, SD = 6.30). Affect and RTI were assessed on 6 days over a 2-week period, every 6 months for 2 years. Results revealed a significant association between NA-low arousal and RTI within persons over time. RTI was higher on sessions when NA-low arousal was higher than usual (b = 0.21, 95% CI [0.08, 0.35], p < 0.01). This association decreased in magnitude over time (b = -0.09, 95% CI [-0.14, -0.03], p < 0.001), ultimately resulting in increased NA-low arousal being associated with decreased RTI 2 years later (b = -0.14, 95% CI [-0.27, -0.01], p < 0.05). No PA-RTI associations emerged. The results suggest efforts focused on maximizing resource allocation and personalizing cognitive health efforts should consider for whom and when mitigating NA may be maximally beneficial to daily cognition, whereas additional work is needed to determine influences from PA.

Background and Objectives The racial or ethnic disparity in the burden of dementia exists among older adults in the United States, whereas gaps remain in understanding the synergic effect of multiple social determinants of health on diminishing this disparity. We aim to build a polysocial score for dementia and investigate the racial or ethnic difference in dementia risk among older persons with different polysocial score categories. Research Design and Methods In this prospective cohort study, we utilized longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study in the United States recruiting 6 945 participants aged ≥65 years who had data on 24 social determinants of health in 2006/2008. The dementia status of participants was measured by a modified version of the Telephone Interview of Cognitive Status. The stepwise Cox regression was applied to select social determinants of health associated with incident dementia to construct a polysocial score. The multivariable Poisson model and linear mixed model were utilized to investigate the associations between polysocial score and incident dementia and cognitive decline, respectively. Results Eight social determinants of health were used to build the polysocial score. Non-Hispanic Black older participants had a higher incidence rate (incidence rate difference [IRD] = 22.7; 95% confident interval [95% CI] = 12.7–32.8) than non-Hispanic White older adults in the low polysocial score, while this difference was substantially attenuated in the high polysocial score category (IRD = 0.5; 95% CI = −6.4 to −7.5). The cognitive decline of non-Hispanic older Black adults with high polysocial score was 84.6% slower (averaged cognitive decline: non-Hispanic White: −2.4 [95% CI = −2.5 to −2.3] vs non-Hispanic Black: −1.3 [95% CI = −1.9 to −0.8]) than that of non-Hispanic older White persons. Discussion and Implications These findings may help comprehensively understand and address racial and ethnic disparities in dementia risk and may be integrated into existing dementia prevention programs to provide targeted interventions for community-dwelling older adults with differentiated social disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mitochondrial dysfunction manifests in neurodegenerative diseases and other age-associated disorders. In this study, we examined variation in inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences in Black and White participants from 2 large aging studies to identify variants related to cognitive function. Methods Participants included self-reported Black and White adults aged ≥70 years in the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders (LIFE; N  = 1 319) and Health Aging and Body Composition (Health ABC; N  = 788) studies. Cognitive function was measured by the Digit-Symbol Substitution Test (DSST), and the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE) at baseline and over follow-up in LIFE (3.6 years) and Health ABC (10 years). We examined the joint effects of multiple variants across 16 functional mitochondrial regions with cognitive function using a sequence kernel association test. Based on these results, we prioritized meta-analysis of common variants in Black and White participants using mixed effects models. A Bonferroni-adjusted p value of <.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Joint variation in subunits ND1, ND2, and ND5 of Complex I, 12S RNA, and hypervariable region (HVR) were significantly associated with DSST and 3MSE at baseline. In meta-analyses among Black participants, variant m.4216T>C, ND1 was associated with a faster decline in 3MSE, and variant m.462C>T in the HVR was associated with a slower decline in DSST. Variant m.5460G>C, ND2 was associated with slower and m.182C>T in the HVR was associated with faster decline in 3MSE in White participants. Conclusions Among Black and White adults, oxidative phosphorylation Complex I variants were associated with cognitive function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patients with kidney failure have the option of starting dialysis or continuing medical management. This observational cohort study used a target trial emulation approach to determine the mean survival and number of days at home for adults who start dialysis within 30 days of an eGFR below 12 mL/min/1.73 m 2 compared with those who continue medical management. Visual Abstract. Effect of Starting Dialysis Versus Continuing Medical Management on Survival and Home Time in Older Adults With Kidney Failure: Patients with kidney failure have the option of starting dialysis or continuing medical management. This observational cohort study used a target trial emulation approach to determine the mean survival and number of days at home for adults who start dialysis within 30 days of an eGFR below 12 mL/min/1.73 m 2 compared with those who continue medical management. Background: For older adults with kidney failure who are not referred for transplant, medical management is an alternative to dialysis. Objective: To compare survival and home time between older adults who started dialysis at an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 12 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and those who continued medical management. Design: Observational cohort study using target trial emulation. Setting: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, 2010 to 2018. Participants: Adults aged 65 years or older with chronic kidney failure and eGFR below 12 mL/min/1.73 m 2 who were not referred for transplant. Intervention: Starting dialysis within 30 days versus continuing medical management. Measurements: Mean survival and number of days at home. Results: Among 20 440 adults (mean age, 77.9 years [SD, 8.8]), the median time to dialysis start was 8.0 days in the group starting dialysis and 3.0 years in the group continuing medical management. Over a 3-year horizon, the group starting dialysis survived 770 days and the group continuing medical management survived 761 days (difference, 9.3 days [95% CI, −17.4 to 30.1 days]). Compared with the group continuing medical management, the group starting dialysis had 13.6 fewer days at home (CI, 7.7 to 20.5 fewer days at home). Compared with the group continuing medical management and forgoing dialysis completely, the group starting dialysis had longer survival by 77.6 days (CI, 62.8 to 91.1 days) and 14.7 fewer days at home (CI, 11.2 to 16.5 fewer days at home). Limitation: Potential for unmeasured confounding due to lack of symptom assessments at eligibility; limited generalizability to women and nonveterans. Conclusion: Older adults starting dialysis when their eGFR fell below 12 mL/min/1.73 m 2 who were not referred for transplant had modest gains in life expectancy and less time at home. Primary Funding Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and National Institutes of Health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundMosaic loss of chromosome Y (mLOY) can occur in a fraction of cells as men age, which is potentially linked to increased mortality risk. Smoking is related to mLOY; however, the contribution of air pollution is unclear.ObjectiveWe investigated whether exposure to outdoor air pollution, age, and smoking were associated with mLOY.MethodsWe analyzed baseline (1989-1993) blood samples from 933 men ≥65 years of age from the prospective Cardiovascular Health Study. Particulate matter ≤10 μm (PM10), carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and ozone data were obtained from the U.S. EPA Aerometric Information Retrieval System for the year prior to baseline. Inverse-distance weighted air monitor data were used to estimate each participants' monthly residential exposure. mLOY was detected with standard methods using signal intensity (median log-R ratio (mLRR)) of the male-specific chromosome Y regions from Illumina array data. Linear regression models were used to evaluate relations between mean exposure in the prior year, age, smoking and continuous mLRR.ResultsIncreased PM10 was associated with mLOY, namely decreased mLRR (p-trend = 0.03). Compared with the lowest tertile (≤28.5 μg/m3), the middle (28.5-31.0 μg/m3; β = -0.0044, p = 0.09) and highest (≥31 μg/m3; β = -0.0054, p = 0.04) tertiles had decreased mLRR, adjusted for age, clinic, race/cohort, smoking status and pack-years. Additionally, increasing age (β = -0.00035, p = 0.06) and smoking pack-years (β = -0.00011, p = 1.4E-3) were associated with decreased mLRR, adjusted for each other and race/cohort. No significant associations were found for other pollutants.ConclusionsPM10 may increase leukocyte mLOY, a marker of genomic instability. The sample size was modest and replication is warranted.

BackgroundWhile changes in blood pressure (BP) are independently associated with cardiovascular events, less is known about the association between changes in BP and subsequent changes in renal function in adults with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of >60 ml/min/1.73 m2.MethodsThe present study included 3,920 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) study who had ≥2 BP measurements during the first 5 years of MESA and had eGFR measurements at both year 5 and 10. Change in BP was estimated as the annualized slope of BP between year 0 and 5 based on linear mixed models (mean number of measurements = 4.0). Participants were then grouped into 1 of 3 categories based on the distribution of systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and pulse pressure (PP) change (top 20%, middle 21-79%, bottom 20%). We calculated eGFR from cystatin C (ml/min/1.73 m2), estimated annual change in eGFR (ml/min/1.73 m2/year), and defined rapid kidney function decline as a >30% decrease in eGFR from year 5 to 10. We used multivariable logistic regression adjusting for year 0 demographic and clinical characteristics, including eGFR and BP, to determine associations of BP change with rapid kidney function decline.ResultsMedian age was 59 [interquartile range (IQR): 52, 67] and median eGFR at year 0 was 95.5 (IQR: 81.7, 105.9) ml/min/1.73 m2. Median SBP at year 0 was 111, 121, and 147 mm Hg for increasing, stable, and decreasing SBP change, respectively. Increasing SBP and widening PP change were each associated with higher odds of rapid kidney function decline compared with stable SBP and PP groups, respectively [odds ratio, OR 1.7 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.3, 2.4) for SBP; OR 1.4 (95% CI 1.1, 1.9) for PP]. Decreasing SBP was associated with rapid kidney function decline after adjusting for all covariates except for year 0 BP [OR 1.4 (95% CI 1.0, 1.8)], but this association was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for year 0 BP. There were no significant associations between DBP change and rapid decline in the fully adjusted models. Similar findings were seen with annual change in eGFR.ConclusionsIncreasing SBP and widening PP over time were associated with greater risk for accelerated kidney function decline even at BP levels below established hypertension thresholds.

PurposeWe applied cluster analysis to identify discrete patterns of concomitant responses of systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and pulse pressure (PP) during intensive BP lowering; and to evaluate their clinical relevance and association with risk of mortality, major vascular events (MVEs), and stroke.Material and methodsWe used an unsupervised cluster procedure to identify distinct patterns of BP change during the first 9 months of anti-hypertensive therapy intensification among 1,331 participants in the Secondary Prevention of Small Subcortical Strokes Trial who were previously randomized to lower BP target (SBP

OBJECTIVES:Research has demonstrated that the association between high blood pressure and outcomes is attenuated among older adults with functional limitations, compared with healthier elders. However, it is not known whether these patterns vary by racial/ethnic group. We evaluated race/ethnicity-specific patterns of effect modification in the association between blood pressure and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) by functional status. SETTING:We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (2002-2004, with an average of 8.8 years of follow-up for incident CVD). We assessed effect modification of systolic blood pressure and cardiovascular outcomes by self-reported physical limitations and by age. PARTICIPANTS:The study included 6117 participants (aged 46 to 87; 40% white, 27% black, 22% Hispanic and 12% Chinese) who did not have CVD at the second study examination (when self-reported physical limitations were assessed). OUTCOME MEASURES:Incident CVD was defined as an incident myocardial infarction, coronary revascularisation, resuscitated cardiac arrest, angina, stroke (fatal or non-fatal) or death from CVD. RESULTS:We observed weaker associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and CVD among white adults with physical limitations (incident rate ratio (IRR) per 10 mm Hg higher SBP: 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 to 1.20)) than those without physical limitations (IRR 1.29 (1.19, 1.40); P value for interaction

BackgroundThe theoretical conditions under which causal estimates can be derived from observational data are challenging to achieve in the real world. Applied examples can help elucidate the practical limitations of methods to estimate randomized-controlled trial effects from observational data.MethodsWe used six methods with varying design and analytic features to compare the 5-year risk of incident myocardial infarction among statin users and non-users, and used non-cardiovascular mortality as a negative control outcome. Design features included restriction to a statin-eligible population and new users only; analytic features included multivariable adjustment and propensity score matching.ResultsWe used data from 5294 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study from 1989 to 2004. For non-cardiovascular mortality, most methods produced protective estimates with confidence intervals that crossed the null. The hazard ratio (HR) was 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.58, 1.46 using propensity score matching among eligible new users. For myocardial infarction, all estimates were strongly protective; the propensity score-matched analysis among eligible new users resulted in a HR of 0.55 (0.29, 1.05)-a much stronger association than observed in randomized controlled trials.ConclusionsIn designs that compare active treatment with non-treated participants to evaluate effectiveness, methods to address bias in observational data may be limited in real-world settings by residual bias.

BackgroundStatins are effective in the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline expands recommended statin use, but its cost-effectiveness has not been compared with other guidelines.MethodsWe used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the ACC/AHA guideline relative to current use, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and universal statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age over a 10-year horizon from 2016 to 2025. Sensitivity analyses varied costs, risks, and benefits. Main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and numbers needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained.ResultsEach approach produces substantial benefits and net cost savings relative to the status quo. Full adherence to the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline would result in 8.8 million more statin users than the status quo, at a number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 35. The ACC/AHA guideline would potentially result in up to 12.3 million more statin users than the Adult Treatment Panel III guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 68. Moderate-intensity statin use in all men 45 to 74 years of age and women 55 to 74 years of age would result in 28.9 million more statin users than the ACC/AHA guideline, with a marginal number needed to treat for 10 years per quality-adjusted life-year gained of 108. In all cases, benefits would be greater in men than women. Results vary moderately with different risk thresholds for instituting statins and statin toxicity estimates but depend greatly on the disutility caused by daily medication use (pill burden).ConclusionsAt a population level, the ACC/AHA guideline for expanded statin use for primary prevention is projected to treat more people, to save more lives, and to cost less compared with Adult Treatment Panel III in both men and women. Whether individuals benefit from long-term statin use for primary prevention depends more on the disutility associated with pill burden than their degree of cardiovascular risk.

BackgroundCommon blood pressure (BP) trajectories are not well established in elderly persons, and their association with clinical outcomes is uncertain.MethodsWe used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify discrete BP trajectories among 4,067 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study using repeated BP measures from years 0 to 7. We then evaluated associations of each BP trajectory cluster with all-cause mortality, incident cardiovascular disease (CVD, defined as stroke or myocardial infarction) (N = 2,837), and incident congestive heart failure (HF) (N = 3,633) using Cox proportional hazard models.ResultsMedian age was 77 years at year 7. Over a median 9.3 years of follow-up, there were 2,475 deaths, 659 CVD events, and 1,049 HF events. The cluster analysis identified 3 distinct trajectory groups. Participants in cluster 1 (N = 1,838) had increases in both systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) BPs, whereas persons in cluster 2 (N = 1,109) had little change in SBP but declines in DBP. Persons in cluster 3 (N = 1,120) experienced declines in both SBP and DBP. After multivariable adjustment, clusters 2 and 3 were associated with increased mortality risk relative to cluster 1 (hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.37 and hazard ratio = 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.36, respectively). Compared to cluster 1, cluster 3 had higher rates of incident CVD but associations were not statistically significant in demographic-adjusted models (hazard ratio = 1.16, 95% confidence interval: 0.96-1.39). Findings were similar when stratified by use of antihypertensive therapy.ConclusionsAmong community-dwelling elders, distinct BP trajectories were identified by integrating both SBP and DBP. These clusters were found to have differential associations with outcomes.

BackgroundWalking speed is associated with functional status and all-cause mortality. Yet the relationship between walking speed and stroke, also a leading cause of disability, remains poorly understood, especially in older Latino adults who suffer from a significant burden of stroke.MethodsA total of 1,486 stroke-free participants from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging, aged 60 and older at baseline in 1998-1999, were followed annually through 2010. Participants reported their usual walking speed outdoors which was classified into slow, medium, or fast. We also assessed timed tandem walk ability (unable or eight or more errors vs less than eight errors). We ascertained three incident stroke endpoints: total stroke, nonfatal stroke, and fatal stroke. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke at different walking speed and timed tandem walk categories.ResultsOver an average of 6 years of follow-up (SD = 2.8), the incidence rate of total strokes was 23.2/1,000 person-years for slow walkers compared to 15.6/1,000 person-years for medium walkers, and 7.6/1,000 person-years for fast walkers. In Cox models adjusted for sociodemographics, cardiovascular risk, cognition and functional status, and self-rated health, the hazard of total stroke was 31% lower for medium walkers (HR: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.47, 1.02) and 56% lower for fast walkers (HR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.82) compared with slow walkers. We found similar associations with timed tandem walk ability (fully adjusted HR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.98).ConclusionsOur findings suggest perceived walking speed captures more than self-rated health alone and is a strong risk factor for stroke risk in Latino older adults.

ImportanceCardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Understanding the relative contributions of cardiovascular disease event types to the excess burden of cardiovascular disease is important for developing effective strategies to improve outcomes.ObjectiveTo determine absolute rates and risk differences of incident heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke in participants with vs without CKD.Design, setting and participantsWe pooled participants without prevalent cardiovascular disease from 3 community-based cohort studies: the Jackson Heart Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. The Jackson Heart Study was conducted between 2000 and 2010, the Cardiovascular Health Study was conducted between 1989 and 2003, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis was conducted between 2000 and 2012.ExposuresChronic kidney disease was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, calculated using the combined creatinine-cystatin C CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration Equation.Main outcomes and measuresPoisson regression was used to calculate incidence rates (IRs) and risk differences of adjudicated incident HF, CHD, and stroke, comparing participants with vs without CKD.ResultsAmong 14 462 participants, the mean (SD) age was 63 (12) years, 59% (n = 8533) were women, and 44% (n = 6363) were African American. Overall, 1461 (10%) had CKD (mean [SD] estimated glomerular filtration rate, 49 [10] mL/min/1.73 m2). Unadjusted IRs for participants with and without CKD, respectively, were 22.0 (95% CI, 19.3-24.8) and 6.2 (95% CI, 5.8-6.7) per 1000 person-years for HF; 24.5 (95% CI, 21.6-27.5) and 8.4 (95% CI, 7.9-9.0) per 1000 person-years for CHD; and 13.4 (95% CI, 11.3-15.5) and 4.8 (95% CI, 4.4-5.3) for stroke. Adjusting for demographics, cohort, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and tobacco use, risk differences comparing participants with vs without CKD (per 1000 person-years) were 2.3 (95% CI, 1.2-3.3) for HF, 2.3 (95% CI, 1.2-3.4) for CHD, and 0.8 (95% CI, 0.09-1.5) for stroke. Among African American and Hispanic participants, adjusted risk differences comparing participants with vs without CKD for HF were 3.5 (95% CI, 1.5-5.5) and 7.8 (95% CI, 2.2-13.3) per 1000 person-years, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceAmong 3 diverse community-based cohorts, CKD was associated with an increased risk of HF that was similar in magnitude to CHD and greater than stroke. The excess risk of HF associated with CKD was particularly large among African American and Hispanic individuals. Efforts to improve health outcomes for patients with CKD should prioritize HF in addition to CHD prevention.

BackgroundThe present study aimed to (i) evaluate previous observations that the association of blood pressure (BP) with outcomes varies by gait speed and (ii) evaluate the association of subsequent changes in BP and cardiovascular risk.MethodsParticipants included 2,669 adults aged 70-79 years in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Gait speed was dichotomized at ≥1.0 m/s over a 20-m test at baseline. BP was measured at baseline, and changes in BP over 5 years were evaluated using (i) population-based trajectory models and (ii) intraindividual mean and slope.ResultsOver a mean of 10 years, there were 1,366 deaths, 336 first myocardial infarctions, and 295 first strokes. There was a differential pattern of association between baseline systolic BP and diastolic BP and outcomes among brisk and moderate speed walkers. For example, the association between higher diastolic BP and mortality was in the protective direction for moderate speed walkers (hazard ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.91) per 10 mmHg higher, whereas it was null in brisk walkers (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval: 0.98, 1.11), p value for interaction .01. The 5-year population-based trajectories did not add important information beyond baseline BP. Individual slopes in both systolic BP and diastolic BP did not appear to have important associations with the outcomes.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that the overall level of BP was associated with myocardial infarction, stroke, and death, and this association differed by baseline gait speed, whereas changes in BP were not associated with these outcomes.