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High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement: A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter sea ice cover has declined faster in the northern Barents Sea (NBS) than in the rest of the Arctic Ocean. One of the key elements controlling sea ice extent in the NBS is the inflow of warm and saline Atlantic water (AW) through the Barents Sea Opening. We show that despite a pronounced decadal variability in the AW temperature with a cooling trend since the mid-2000s, sea ice in the NBS continues to decline. We find that the sea ice decline is partly caused by reduced oceanic heat loss in the southern Barents Sea (SBS) and subsequent transport of warmer AW downstream to the NBS. Moreover, reduced heat loss contributes to increased sea surface height (SSH) in the SBS and sets up a meridional SSH gradient between SBS and NBS. This reduces the inflow of colder Arctic waters from the eastern Barents Sea, which contributes to further warming in the NBS. Results from idealized coupled climate model experiments with reduced Arctic sea ice suggest that these observed features can be driven by sea ice loss. Thus, despite the AW cooling trend, positive feedback from sea ice loss in the NBS, which involves reduced oceanic heat loss in the SBS and less inflow of cold Arctic waters, favors a continuous decline of sea ice in the NBS. Significance Statement: Barents Sea region of the Arctic, with the largest changes in terms of atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, is of crucial importance not only for the Arctic region but also has potential implications for weather and climate in midlatitudes and the tropics. Here, in this study, we employ comprehensive approach with observational datasets and climate model experiments to identify recent on-going changes in Barents Sea climate and highlight the importance of sea ice loss in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze century-end projections for the tropical Pacific upper-ocean currents simulated within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under global warming. We find that while the intensity of precipitation within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) increases, the ITCZ also shifts toward the equator and broadens, which reduces wind stress curl north of the equator. Consequently, the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) shifts equatorward, following the ITCZ, and weakens, despite the more intense ITCZ. The strength of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the South Equatorial Current (SEC) also decreases due to the weakening of the Walker circulation and the corresponding wind stress. However, despite the weaker winds, the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) intensifies as it shoals due to stronger vertical stratification induced by surface warming. Furthermore, we find a slightly stronger zonal pressure gradient along the core of the EUC, instead of a weaker one expected from weaker wind stress and sea surface height (SSH) gradient along the equator. Ultimately, we suggest that the reduced vertical friction, driven by enhanced ocean stratification and a higher Richardson number, is essential for the accelerated EUC. These intricate balances control future changes in equatorial currents, and the uncertainties of projected changes need to be further examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern is an important atmospheric intrinsic mode over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, and it has strong influence on the weather and climate over Eurasia and remote regions. Investigating factors for the EU variability is crucial and has important implications for regional climate prediction. This study reveals a remarkable influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the EU in early winter and particularly a notable enhancement of this influence since the late 1980s. The results indicate that ENSO can lead to the vertical motion and atmospheric heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean, triggering an atmospheric wave train propagating along the subtropical westerly jet and inducing an EU-like pattern over Eurasia in early winter. The interdecadal enhancement of the ENSO impact on the EU after the late 1980s may be attributable to the warming of the background mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Indian Ocean. In particular, ENSO can lead to stronger atmospheric heating and circulation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean via a strong air–sea interaction due to a warmer background mean SST after the late 1980s. A warmer background mean SST in the tropical Indian Ocean accelerates the subtropical westerly jet due to the thermal-wind balance, which is more favorable for the propagation of the atmospheric wave train forced by the atmospheric heating anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean. The observed mechanisms for the enhanced impact of ENSO on the EU are also validated by numerical experiments. Significance Statement: The Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern is an important atmospheric internal variability with significant influences on the Eurasian climate. The present study finds a remarkable relationship between the EU and ENSO in early winter, and this connection is significantly enhanced in recent decades. Thus, ENSO may serve as an important precursor signal for predicting the EU. Observational analysis and numerical experiments show that the warmer tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) plays a key role in this enhanced relationship. The warmer TIO may enhance the local air–sea interaction and accelerate the subtropical jet. The ENSO-induced anomalous disturbance over the TIO becomes stronger and can more easily propagate along the subtropical jet, exerting a strong influence on the EU especially after the late 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoons are strong natural events that significantly influence the marine environment. In 2018, Typhoon Mangkhut traveled over a moored station with a depth ~1900 m on continental slope in the northern South China Sea, the near-inertial oceanic responses are studied based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model simulation combined with observation data. Near-inertial currents after Mangkhut can be divided into three layers: near-circular polarized in upper ocean, across-slope polarized in deep ocean and along-slope polarized near the bottom, thickness of the three layers depend on the slope steepness. According to across-slope and along-slope intensified currents, the near-bottom vertical velocities and near-inertial energy were intensified at the moored station. The across-slope forth/back near-inertial flows brought cold/warm and salty/fresh water from deeper/shallower depth, increased vertical excursions of near-bottom temperature/salinity isolines and near-inertial available potential energy. The near-inertial barotropic across-slope currents were much greater than along-slope currents, with net cooling and salinity increase of the whole water column at the moored station. The core responses to Mangkhut were within 100 km around the station. The near-inertial kinetic energy generated both at sea surface and bottom slope, then propagated vertically into ocean interior and horizontally into the South China Sea basin as well as some topography-trapped waves propagated along the slope. This work enriches the understanding of air–sea interactions in coastal regions and the effect of ocean topography, especially after a typhoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past few decades, satellite altimetry has surpassed tremendous achievements in examining the mesoscale of ocean dynamics. Recently, new potential of the satellite in observing the variability of climate phenomena through atmospheric medium has been unlocked. As it has been ascertained that satellite altimetry is not only outstanding in monitoring ocean dynamics but also in observing atmospheric variability, we intuitively propose a hypothesis that satellite altimetry is reliable in monitoring Bjerknes feedback: a feedback loop that involves interactions between atmosphere and oceans. Thus, the aim of this study is to determine the capability of satellite altimetry in observing Bjerknes feedback through Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV) and Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) during the anomalous climate mode of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results signify convincing arguments as both PWV and SLA indexes are highly correlated with Dipole Mode Index (DMI), particularly in the western region of the Indian Ocean, which have correlations of 0.67 and 0.62, respectively. The correlations of PWV and SLA indexes are also significantly high: 0.73 and 0.69 in western and eastern regions, respectively. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) results are also convincing as the spatial pattern of primary (PC1) and secondary (PC2) components of both PWV and SLA are associated with positive and negative IOD, respectively. The temporal patterns of PC1 for PWV and SLA have relatively high correlation with positive IOD. The substantially high temporal correlation (0.81) between PWV and SLA PC1 has reinforced the confidence in the capability of satellite altimetry in observing the Bjerknes feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following triple La Niña events during 2020–2022, the future evolution of climate conditions over the tropical Pacific has been a focused interest in ENSO-related communities. Observations and modeling studies indicate that an El Niño event is occurring in 2023; however, large uncertainties remain in terms of its detailed evolution, and the factors affecting its resultant amplitude remain to be understood. Here, a novel deep learning-based Transformer model is adopted to make real-time predictions for the 2023–2024 climate conditions in the tropical Pacific. Several key fields vital to the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific are collectively and simultaneously utilized in model training and in making predictions; therefore, this purely data-driven model is configured in both training and predicting procedures such that the coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions are adequately represented. Also similar to dynamic models, the prediction procedure is executed in a rolling manner to allow ocean-atmosphere anomaly exchanges month by month; the related key fields during multi-month time intervals (TIs) prior to prediction target months are taken as input predictors, serving as initial conditions to precondition the future evolution more effectively. Real-time predictions indicate that the climate conditions in the tropical Pacific are surely to develop into an El Niño state in late 2023. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine how prediction skills are affected by the input predictor specifications, including TIs during which information on initial conditions is retained for making predictions. A comparison with other dynamic coupled models is also made to demonstrate the prediction performance for the 2023–2024 El Niño event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) can potentially develop into tropical cyclones (TCs), leading to significant casualties and economic losses. Accurate prediction of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) is crucial for early warnings. Most traditional deep learning methods applied to TCG prediction rely on predictors from a single time point, neglect the ocean-atmosphere interactions, and exhibit low model interpretability. This study proposes the Tropical Cyclogenesis Prediction-Net (TCGP-Net) based on the Swin Transformer, which leverages convolutional operations and attention mechanisms to encode spatiotemporal features and capture the temporal evolution of predictors. This model incorporates the coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, including multiple variables such as sea surface temperature. Additionally, causal inference and integrated gradients are employed to validate the effectiveness of the predictors and provide an interpretability analysis of the model's decision-making process. The model is trained using GridSat satellite data and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that TCGP-Net achieves high accuracy and stability, with a detection rate of 97.9% and a false alarm rate of 2.2% for predicting TCG 24 hours in advance, significantly outperforming existing models. This indicates that TCGP-Net is a reliable tool for tropical cyclogenesis prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a considerable asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa), as El Niño events tend to be stronger and centered further east than La Niña events. Here, we analyze ENSO asymmetry in observations and preindustrial control integrations of 32 models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Observations indicate a significant link between strong eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and the ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. The large CMIP6 database confirms this strong link. Most CMIP6 models suffer from an equatorial Pacific cold SST bias. This cold tongue bias hinders the southward migration of the ITCZ toward the equator over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which is characteristic of strong EP El Niño events in observations. Therefore, many models underestimate the eastern equatorial Pacific rainfall anomalies and simulate a wind stress feedback over the western Pacific that is too weak and too far west. As a result, the cold tongue bias exerts a strong control on the climate models' ability to generate strong EP El Niño events and therefore on the ENSO overall amplitude and asymmetry. We discuss the relevance of these results in view of a potential increase of strong EP El Niño events under global warming. Significance Statement: El Niño and La Niña are asymmetric, as El Niño events tend to be stronger and further east than La Niña events. Due to an equatorial Pacific cold tongue bias with too cold SSTs, the simulation of ENSO asymmetry is degraded in many climate models participating in CMIP6. Here, we show how the cold tongue bias influences ENSO asymmetry. The cold bias hampers the simulation of strong eastern Pacific El Niños by making it more difficult for SST to exceed the threshold for deep atmospheric convection over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Recent research indicates that climate models with a realistic ENSO asymmetry agree on the projected ENSO under global warming. The results of this study suggest that reducing the cold tongue bias has the potential to enhancing the reliability of future ENSO projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Pacific convergence zone plays a crucial role in the global climate system. Previous research studies emphasized the cross-seasonal influence of the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode on the tropical Pacific climate. This study assesses the relationship between austral summer SPQ and austral winter tropical precipitation in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models. The analysis emphasizes the historical experiments conducted within this time frame, spanning from 1979 to 2014. Our findings reveal that the SPQ is accurately represented in all CMIP6 models, but the connection between SPQ and precipitation is inadequately simulated in most models. To investigate the reasons behind these intermodel differences in reproducing SPQ-related processes, we categorize models into two groups. The comparisons demonstrate that the fidelity of model simulations in replicating the SPQ–tropical precipitation relationship hinges significantly on their capacity to reproduce the positive wind–evaporation–sea surface temperature (WES; SST) feedback over both the southwestern Pacific (25°–10°S; 150°E–160°W) and the southeastern Pacific (30°–10°S; 140°–80°W). This positive WES feedback propagates the SPQ signal into the tropics, intensifying the meridional gradient of SST anomaly in the tropical western-central Pacific, which consequently amplifies convection and rainfall in that area. In the group of models that failed to simulate this relationship accurately, the weakened WES feedback can be traced back to biases in wind speed and its variation. Furthermore, this WES feedback establishes a connection between SPQ and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A better rendition of the SPQ–tropical rainfall connection tends to result in a better simulation of the onset of SPQ-related ENSO events. As a result, this study advances our comprehension of extratropical impacts on the tropics, with the potential to enhance the accuracy of tropical climate simulation and prediction. Significance Statement: Tropical rainfall plays an important role in the global climate system. Beyond the well-known influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the tropical rainfall, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the South Pacific has a cross-seasonal impact on the precipitation over the tropical Pacific via air–sea coupled processes. Such SST anomaly pattern shows a quadrupole structure in the extratropical South Pacific, known as the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) mode. However, the relationship between SPQ and tropical precipitation remains poorly simulated in most state-of-the-art climate models. One primary reason for this gap between observed and simulated relationships is the underestimation of wind speed and its variation over the south tropical Pacific in these models. This limitation undermines their ability to accurately represent the air–sea interactions that drive tropical precipitation patterns, leading to inaccuracies in simulations. Our study aims to bridge this knowledge gap by enhancing our understanding of the extratropical effects on the tropical Pacific. By exploring the mechanisms underlying the SPQ–precipitation connection, we expect to improve the simulation and prediction capabilities of tropical climate models, thereby enhancing our ability to forecast and adapt to future climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although links between the atmospheric convergence zone and the local ocean dipole in the South Atlantic are well established, relationships between the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and the South Pacific quadrupole (SPQ) remain largely unexplored. Based on maximum covariance analysis applied to a 110-yr monthly coupled atmosphere–ocean reanalysis, we describe a coupled quadrupole mode (CQM) that connects the SPCZ and SPQ during austral summer [December–February (DJF)]. The CQM is linked to the "enhanced SPCZ" mode in the atmosphere and the SPQ in the ocean, with the atmospheric signal leading the ocean signal by about 1 month. This coupled mode essentially represents the atmospheric and oceanic responses to a stationary Rossby wave train that propagates from low- to high latitudes before reflecting back toward lower latitudes around 150°E. Coupled atmosphere–ocean feedbacks help to maintain anomalous convective activity in the SPCZ and related circulation anomalies. The stationary waves that organize the CQM are often rooted in anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent and have close connections with the atmospheric wavenumber-4 mode in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere. Significance Statement: In this study, we investigate the relationships between coherent large-scale patterns in the South Pacific Ocean and the overlying atmosphere. These patterns, which we refer to as a coupled quadrupole for their four centers of action, impact both local communities and the global climate by shaping rainfall and temperature anomalies across the "four corners" of the South Pacific: east–west and north–south. We show that this coupled quadrupole arises as the joint atmospheric and oceanic response to a large-scale wave that arcs across the entire South Pacific basin more than 10 km above the surface and that feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere help it to last longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incident shortwave radiation can penetrate and heat the upper ocean water column, acting to modulate the stratification, vertical mixing and sea surface temperature. As a light-absorbing constituent, ocean chlorophyll (CHL) plays an important role in regulating these processes; however, its heating effect on the ocean state remains controversial and exhibits strong model dependence on ways the solar radiation transmission and the related CHL-induced heating are represented. In this study, we implement a chlorophyll-based two-way coupling between physical and ecological processes within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The bio-physics coupled model performs well in simulating the structure and variability of oceanic physical and ecological fields in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Three CHL-related heating terms are analyzed based on the model output to diagnose the ocean biology-induced heating effects, namely the shortwave radiation part penetrating out of the base of the mixed layer (ML; Qpen), the portion absorbed within the ML (Qabs), and the rate of temperature change of the ML resulting from the Qabs effects (Rsr). Results show that the spatio-temporal distributions of the three heating terms are mainly determined by the ML depth (MLD). However, Qpen can also be regulated by the euphotic depth (ED), especially in the western-central equatorial Pacific. This moderating effect is particularly evident during El Niño when the ED tends to be greater than the MLD; positive ED anomalies act to enhance the positive Qpen anomalies caused by negative MLD anomalies. For the first time, the bio-heating effects are quantified within the ROMS-based two-way coupling context between the physical submodel and ecological submodel over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean, providing a basis for further understanding of the bio-effects and mechanisms. It is expected that the methodology and understanding developed in this study can help explore the chlorophyll-related processes in the ocean and the interactions with the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surface heat flux feedback, which refers to the response of surface heat flux anomaly to the underlying sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), is one of the key processes in air-sea interaction. It plays an important role in regulating various aspects of the climate system, ranging from local SSTA persistence to the global overturning circulation and major climate modes. Yet its change under greenhouse gas-induced warming remains unknown. Here, using an ensemble of global climate simulations under a high radiative forcing scenario, we demonstrate that the intensity of surface heat flux feedback for spatially large-scale SSTA at the midlatitudes is projected to halve by the end of the 21st century, compared to pre-industrial levels. Such weakening is primarily attributed to a more stabilized marine atmospheric boundary layer, which diminishes the air-sea thermal disequilibrium caused by SSTA. In a warming climate, the variance of midlatitude SSTA at large spatial scales is expected to be significantly enhanced in response to the weakened surface heat flux feedback. This study uses state-of-the-art climate model simulations and shows that the surface heat flux feedback to large-scale sea surface temperature anomalies will weaken at the midlatitudes under global warming due to a more stable marine atmospheric boundary layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Guanabara Bay, located in the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro, one of the largest urban coastal areas in the Southern Hemisphere, is subject to intense maritime traffic due to the presence of several ports. These facilities are affected by sea level fluctuations, influenced by atmospheric and astronomical forces, which motivates synoptic and climatological analysis, including meteorological and astronomical tidal phenomena. This study aimed to assess the evolution of tidal components and the relative mean sea level (MSL) between 1990 and 2021, as well as the atmospheric influence on extreme meteorological tide events, in which the MSL exceeded ±2 and ±3 (±29.98 and ±44.97 cm) standard deviations. The results have shown that, albeit small, the main tidal components (M2, S2, O1, M4, Q1, K1, K2 and N2) indicated positive trends in the increase of amplitude and phase, despite the small quantities. For the relative MSL, an increase of 0.30 cm·year−1 was observed in agreement with estimates from global series from satellite altimeters and climate model predictions. Pressure and wind field analyses led to the identification of seasonal variability and the pattern of evolution of atmospheric systems associated with extreme events. In the case of positive surges, very intense winds from the SW, extending along the S/SE Brazilian coast, are caused by the presence of a high‐pressure centre over the continent and low‐pressure centres over the ocean, leading to water piling up. In turn, negative surges are caused by the presence of an anticyclone over the ocean, generating NE winds parallel to the coast of Rio de Janeiro, inducing Ekman transport and lowering the sea level. Therefore, the extreme sea level events in the Guanabara Bay are not triggered by local forces, but rather depend on the temporal persistence and direction of winds along the S/SE Brazilian coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the influence of NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CyGNSS) Level 2-derived 10 m (near-surface) wind speed over the ocean on analyses and forecasts within the NOAA operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). HAFS is coupled with a regional configuration of the HYCOM ocean model. The primary advantages of data from the CyGNSS constellation of satellites include higher revisit frequency compared to polar-orbiting satellites, and the availability of reliable wind observations over the ocean surface during convective precipitation. CyGNSS data are available early in the life cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) when aerial reconnaissance observations are not available. We focus on TCs whose forecasts were initialized when the TC was a depression or tropical storm. In the present study, we find first, that assimilation of CyGNSS near-surface winds improves storm track, intensity, and structure statistics in the analysis and early in the forecast, for many cases. Second, we find that assimilation of CyGNSS observations provides additional insights into the evolution of air-sea interaction in intensifying TCs: In effect, the ocean responds in the coupled model to modifications in the initial 10 m wind field, thereby impacting forecasts of intensity, storm structure, and sea surface height, as demonstrated by two case studies. We also discuss some forecasts where assimilating CYGNSS appears to degrade performance for either intensity or structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the manifests of air-sea interactions is the change in sea level due to meteorological forcing through wind stress and atmospheric pressure. When meteorological conditions conducive to water level increase coincide with high tides during spring tides, the sea level may rise higher than expected and pose a flood risk to coastal low-lying areas. In Hong Kong, specifically when the northeast monsoon coincides with the higher spring tides in late autumn and winter, and sometimes even compounded by the storm surge brought by late-season tropical cyclones (TCs), the result may be coastal flooding or sea inundation. Aiming at forecasting such sea level anomalies on the scale of hours and days with local tide gauges using a flexible and computationally efficient method, this study adapts a data-driven method based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) regression of non-uniformly lagged regional wind field from ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) to capture the effects from synoptic weather evolution patterns, excluding the effect of TCs. Local atmospheric pressure and winds are also included in the predictors of the regression model. Verification results show good performance in general. Hindcast using ECMWF forecasts as input reveals that the reduction of mean absolute error (MAE) by adding the anomaly forecast to the existing predicted astronomical tide was as high as 30% in February on average over the whole range of water levels, as well as that compared against the Delft3D forecast in a strong northeast monsoon case. The EOF method generally outperformed the persistence method in forecasting water level anomaly for a lead time of more than 6 h. The performance was even better particularly for high water levels, making it suitable to serve as a forecast reference tool for providing high water level alerts to relevant emergency response agencies to tackle the risk of coastal inundation in non-TC situations and an estimate of the anomaly contribution from the northeast monsoon under its combined effect with TC. The model is capable of improving water level forecasts up to a week ahead, despite the general decreasing model performance with increasing lead time due to less accurate input from model forecasts at a longer range. Some cases show that the model successfully predicted both positive and negative anomalies with a magnitude similar to observations up to 5 to 7 days in advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Indian Ocean (NIO) is one of the areas with the highest frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) occurrence in the world. This study explores the spatial distribution patterns of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone (NIOTC) trajectories and examines the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon index (SASMI) and NIOTC using historical data spanning from 1959 to 2020. The annual average number of NIOTC is 4.92, with the highest frequency of occurrence being in the collection of cyclonic storms (34–47 kt) and severe cyclonic storms (48–63 kt). Based on the divergent and convergent trends in the interannual quantity sequences of SASMI and NIOTC, their relationship is categorized into two phases: positive and negative, each spanning 32 and 29 years, respectively. During the positive phase, the landfall frequency and the average intensity of TCs on the eastern coast of India are generally higher and the frequency of TCs' trajectories in the northeast Arabian Sea is significantly higher than during the negative phase, with an average difference of 19.13 trajectories within the range of 14°N-24°N and 61°E-73°E. While NIO is more inclined to generate stronger TCs during the positive phase, extremes are more likely to occur during the negative phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals a remarkable interdecadal intensification in the interannual variability of summer synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) since the late 1980s. This intensification can be explained by the remarkable difference in circulation anomalies associated with the SSD intensity variability during 1959–1987 (P1) and 1988–2022 (P2). That is, the lower-tropospheric cyclonic circulation anomalies are more significant during P2 than P1. Accordingly, the meridional shear of zonal winds over the WNP is significantly stronger in P2, and thus favors the enhancement of SSD intensity through the kinetic energy conversion from the mean flow to SSDs. Further analysis suggests that the SSD intensity variation is significantly related to the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific and maritime continent in P2, which can induce the cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the WNP, but the SST anomalies are vague in P1. Finally, the more pronounced influence of tropical SST anomalies on circulations and SSDs over the WNP is attributed to the much warmer SSTs over the maritime continent in P2, which intensifies the responses of atmospheric circulations to SST anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals the remarkable interdecadal changes in the influence of boreal winter Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies (ASICAs) in the Greenland–Barents Seas on the subsequent El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development. Winter ASICA is strongly associated with the subsequent winter ENSO before the late 1980s and after the late 2000s, but their connection is weak during the 1990s and the 2000s. The interdecadal variations in the influence of ASICA on ENSO are associated with changes in the spatial structure of the ASICA-induced North Pacific atmospheric anomalies. During high-correlation periods, winter SIC increases in the Greenland–Barents Seas lead to tropospheric cooling via the suppression of upward surface heat fluxes, which further trigger an atmospheric teleconnection from the Arctic to the North Pacific. The accompanying North Pacific Oscillation–like atmospheric anomalies result in sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the subtropical North Pacific, which extends southward into the tropical Pacific via wind–evaporation–SST feedback and leads to surface westerly anomalies over the tropical western Pacific in the following summer. The tropical western Pacific westerly wind anomalies impact the subsequent ENSO development via triggering positive Bjerknes air–sea interaction. During low-correlation periods, atmospheric anomalies over the North Pacific generated by the winter ASICA are located more northward and cannot induce marked subtropical North Pacific SST anomalies and thus have a weak impact on the following ENSO development. Numerical experiments suggest that the interdecadal variation in the spatial structure of the North Pacific atmospheric anomalies induced by the winter ASICA is partly attributed to change in the atmospheric mean flow. Significance Statement: Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. Studies have shown that Arctic sea ice has decreased significantly in recent decades, which is considered to be one of the most important responses of Earth's climate system to global climate change. A number of studies have shown that Arctic sea ice anomalies have significant impacts on weather and climate over mid–high latitudes through tropospheric and stratospheric processes. Recent studies have suggested that the effects of Arctic sea ice anomalies could extend to the tropics via air–sea interactions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest air–sea coupled system in the tropics and can have a significant impact on climate over the globe. ENSO is also considered to be one of the most important sources of subseasonal–seasonal climate predictability over many parts of the globe. It is therefore important to study the factors for the ENSO occurrence. A recent study showed that Arctic sea ice anomalies during boreal winter in the Greenland–Barents Seas have a significant impact on the following winter ENSO. In this study, we further reveal that the influence of winter Arctic sea ice anomalies in the Greenland–Barents Seas on the subsequent ENSO is unstable and has undergone significant interdecadal variation. We then investigate the mechanisms underlying the interdecadal variation via observational analysis and numerical simulations. The results of this study not only have implications for improving the prediction of ENSO but also could improve our understanding of the physical link between high-latitude climate systems and tropical air–sea coupling systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean waves are essential elements across the air‐sea interface, regulating momentum and energy transfer. The mixture of wind sea and ocean swell coupled with surface winds results in diverse sea state conditions that modify the local air‐sea interaction. Previous classifications of wind waves and swells are mostly binary that are insufficient to represent the complexity of sea states. In this study, we utilize wind and wave measurements from the China‐France Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT) to construct an observational wind‐wave ensemble. Four key parameters: wind speed, significant wave height, inverse wave age, and spectral width are selected out of six variables based on their correlations. Employing the unsupervised learning of k‐means clustering, global sea states are categorized into six distinct classes. These classes, characterized by unique centroids and separated in the feature space, represent specific wind regimes and degrees of wave development. Global occurrence highlights that each sea state is region‐specific, bridging the spatial gap of swell and wind sea dominated areas, respectively. This new grouping scheme complements the traditional wind sea and/or swell classification by resolving the diversity of wave regimes. The six‐class classification enables us to identify transitional states and hybrid conditions that may have been overlooked in the binary classification scheme, which shall help investigate the impact of ocean waves on the air‐sea interaction under varying sea states. Plain Language Summary: Ocean waves are vital in the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, affecting the exchange of energy and momentum. The China‐France Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT) can provide concurrent observations of wind vectors and ocean wave directional spectrum. This study selects four key wind and wave parameters from CFOSAT measurements: wind speed, significant wave height, inverse wave age, and spectral width. A type of unsupervised learning technique, k‐means clustering, is applied to group these parameters and classify different sea states. Through this method, six distinct classes of sea states are obtained each representing a specific combination of wind and wave characteristics. These sea state classes are unique and independent when looked at together in a four‐dimensional feature space. However, when considering just one variable, they can overlap. This approach shows that each sea state has particular regional variations, helping bridge the gap between regions dominated by swell and those dominated by wind‐generated waves. Key Points: The concurrent wind and wave variables derived from China‐France Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT) observations are analyzed to create a 4‐dimensional wind‐wave ensembleSix sea state groups are classified by k‐means clustering to characterize different regimes of wind and wave conditionsGlobal frequency of occurrence of these six sea state classes provides greater insight into the regional dominance of wind sea and swell [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface waves and currents are crucial to the mass transfer in the air-sea interaction as they can drive a variety of dynamical processes. How mass can be transported by surface waves and current coupling is addressed through a study of their induced motions of fluid parcels. To this end, a weakly nonlinear wavetrain is imposed on the background flow whose direction and magnitude are permitted to vary with water depth and second-order features of this configuration are investigated. A leading-order approximation to the Stokes drift is derived, correct to the second order in wave steepness, and applicable to an arbitrarily depth-dependent background flow. The reduced forms of the approximate Stokes drift are provided in a few limiting cases such as a current with an exponential profile or propagating in an orthogonal direction to the wave propagation. Novel features related to the Stokes drift and particle trajectories have been reported for the first time as a result of the rotation induced by the wave and current coupling. A non-vanishing component of the Stokes drift velocity and net-mean displacement of fluid parcels in the span-wise direction to the wave propagation are observed in the cases where a shear current propagates obliquely to the waves direction. A non-monotonic dependence on water depth of the stream-wise component of the Stokes drift is shown, and thereby the largest mass transport induced no longer occurs on the still water surface but some depth beneath. The non-monotonic behavior occurs beyond the regime of the near-irrotational assumption of wave-induced motions. It can also lead to the change of the signs for the stream-wise Stokes drift throughout the water column, and thus an overall cancellation of the integrated mass transport by waves over the water column, indicating that the depthintegrated models can likely lead to underestimated effects of the mass transport which is non-trivial at a local depth. The results from this study have far-reaching impact. The Stokes drift profile is a direct input to the parametrization of the surface waves forcing in ocean circulations and the obliquely propagating Stokes drift can be plausibly responsible for the formation of oblique Langmuir rolls to wave propagation in the open ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic mesoscale eddies influence air-sea interaction and atmosphere dynamics through ventilating heat and moisture upward. However, whether the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on the eddy edge could affect the heat and moisture release is still unknown because of the limited observations and coarse-resolution climate models. Using high-resolution atmospheric simulations, this study compares the atmospheric response to the mesoscale (~ 40 km) and submesoscale (~ 4 km) SST gradients at the edge of an eddy. Results show that submesoscale SST gradient drives stronger surface heat and moisture fluxes, enhancing the vertical mixing intensity by 2–3 times within and above the marine atmospheric boundary layer. As a result, one local precipitation event is found to be an order of magnitude larger overlying the eddy. Our findings highlight the importance of resolving oceanic submesoscale features for accurately predicting atmosphere dynamics and precipitation over the ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a narrow tropical belt of deep convective clouds, intense precipitation, and monsoon circulations encircling the Earth. Complex interactions between the ITCZ and local geophysical dynamics result in high climate variability, making weather forecasting and prediction of extreme rainfall or drought events challenging. We unravel the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of the ITCZ and the resulting teleconnection patterns via a novel tropical climate classification achieved using complex network analysis and community detection. We reduce the high-dimensional complex ITCZ dynamics into a simple yet insightful community structure that classifies the tropics into seven regions representing distinct ITCZ dynamics. The two largest communities, encompassing landmasses over the Northern and Southern hemispheres, are associated with coherent seasonal ITCZ dynamics and have significant long-range connections. Temporal analysis of the community structure highlights that the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans communities exhibit substantial variation on multidecadal scales. Further, these communities exhibit incoherent dynamics due to atmosphere-ocean interactions driven by equatorial and coastal oceanic upwelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual ocean–atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific, greatly influencing the global climate system. Seasonal phase locking, which means that ENSO events usually peak in boreal winter, is a distinctive feature of ENSO. In model future projections, the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) amplitude in winter shows no significant change with a large intermodel spread. However, whether and how ENSO phase locking will respond to global warming are not fully understood. In this study, using Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) projections, we found that the seasonality of ENSO events, especially its peak phase, has advanced under global warming. This phenomenon corresponds to the seasonal difference in the changes in the ENSO SST amplitude with an enhanced (weakened) amplitude from boreal summer to autumn (winter). Mixed layer ocean heat budget analysis revealed that the advanced ENSO seasonality is due to intensified positive meridional advective and thermocline feedback during the ENSO developing phase and intensified negative thermal damping during the ENSO peak phase. Furthermore, the seasonal variation in the mean El Niño–like SST warming in the tropical Pacific favors a weakened zonal advective feedback in boreal autumn–winter and earlier decay of ENSO. The advance of the ENSO peak phase is also found in most CMIP5/6 models that simulate the seasonal phase locking of ENSO well in the present climate. Thus, even though the amplitude response in the winter shows no model consensus, ENSO also significantly changes during different stages under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This decade‐long study from the INTERCONF programme addresses the data gap on ocean dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Focusing on the Brazil‐Malvinas Confluence (BMC), we investigated the effect of temperature differences between the warm Brazil Current (BC) and the cold Malvinas Current (MC) on water vapour in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). Our results show a clear distinction: warmer BMC waters have 32% more water vapour (2 kg·m−2 on average) compared to the MC. This highlights the direct link between ocean temperatures and atmospheric processes. Analysis of radiosonde data alongside satellite measurements showed better agreement over cooler waters with lower water vapour, leading to lower variability. This suggests less atmospheric turbulence and improved data compatibility, especially for satellite retrievals such as AIRS. Comparisons between reanalysis data (CFSR), satellite sounders (AIRS) and radiosondes (RS) showed consistent air temperature profiles, with average errors within the 10% threshold for satellite measurements. While capturing humidity variations remains a challenge, especially at high concentrations (indicated by higher mean squared error values), our study highlights the reliability of satellite data, particularly over the cold BMC region. This research highlights the importance of studying the interactions between ocean fronts and atmospheric phenomena for a complete picture of Southern Hemisphere ocean dynamics. It offers valuable insights for scientists across disciplines, providing a broad perspective on the results and their significance in different contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While decadal changes in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have received considerable attention, the corresponding changes in Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) have yet to be well understood. In this study, we show the enhanced northward propagation of BSISO in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the 2000s compared to the 1980s–1990s. Observational analyses and model experiments suggest this enhancement is partially attributed to the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming. The TIO warming tends to increase the air-sea interaction, enhancing moisture anomalies in the free atmosphere. Consequently, this increase in moisture anomalies strengthens BSISO-scale convection through increased convective anomalies at the north of the BSISO center, thereby enhancing the northward propagation of BSISO. Additionally, vorticity changes resulting from mean-state zonal vertical shear also contribute to the BSISO decadal change. Our findings underscore the importance of considering the interaction between BSISO and changes in the ocean mean state in future assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important intrinsic atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific. Observations have shown that the boreal winter NPO is a crucial precursor to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with many ENSO events being preceded by the NPO. It is therefore imperative to assess the ability of current coupled climate models to reproduce the relationship between winter NPO and the subsequent winter ENSO. Previous studies have shown that most coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) underestimate the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter ENSO. Simulations from CMIP6, representing the latest generation of climate models, are now available. This study shows a remarkable improvement of the CMIP6 models in simulating the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent ENSO development compared to the CMIP5 models. This improvement is due to the improved air-sea interaction over the subtropical North Pacific in CMIP6. The enhanced air-sea interaction over the subtropical North Pacific promotes the equatorward propagation of the NPO-induced wind and SST anomalies, resulting in enhanced surface zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which further exert a stronger influence on the subsequent winter ENSO development by triggering the tropical Bjerknes positive air-sea interaction. The enhanced subtropical air-sea interaction is thought to be related to a southward shift of the North Pacific intertropical convergence zone in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Both 2018 and 2021 were La Niña decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers (June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Niña decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018 and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state, providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time, the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Thus, despite being under a similar background of La Niña decaying year, the distinct evolutions of the IOBM, PMM, and MJO in spring and summer of 2018 and 2021 were the main causes of the notable differences in TC activity over the WNP during these two summers, and the anomalies in IOBM and MJO contributed more significantly than those of the PMM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate forecasting has advanced to the stage of investigating mesoscale air-sea interactions. Recent studies have identified significant structural differences between the cores and edges of mesoscale eddies; however, the effects of these structural variations on air-sea fluxes and the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) remain underexplored. Traditional observations often fail to capture the detailed structures of eddies, necessitating enhanced observations at high spatiotemporal resolution for mesoscale eddies. To address this, efforts have been made to develop multi-agent platforms and expendable air-sea interface observation technologies. A task-oriented observation scheme was developed to monitor the spatial characteristics of mesoscale eddies. The South China Sea (SCS) is rich in mesoscale eddies with rapid motion changes, requiring enhanced observations of the air-sea interface using multi-agent mobile networking. An anticyclonic eddy was observed in the eastern region of the Xisha Islands in the SCS, and we examined variations in air-sea fluxes across different regions within the eddy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s−1), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bubble plumes play a significant role in the air–sea interface by influencing processes such as air–sea gas exchange, aerosol production, modulation of oceanic carbon and nutrient cycles, and the vertical structure of the upper ocean. Using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data collected off the west coast of Ireland, we investigate the dynamics of bubble plumes and their relationship with sea state variables. In particular, we describe the patterns of bubble plume vertical extension, duration, and periodicity. We establish a power-law relationship between the average bubble penetration depth and wind speed, consistent with previous findings. Additionally, the study reveals a significant association between whitecapping coverage and observed acoustic volume backscatter intensity, underscoring the role of wave breaking in bubble plume generation. The shape of the probability distribution of bubble plume depths reveals a transition toward stronger and more organized bubble entrainment events during higher wind speeds. Furthermore, we show that deeper bubble plumes are associated with turbulent Langmuir number Lat ∼ 0.3, highlighting the potential role of Langmuir circulation on the transport and deepening of bubble plumes. These results contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between ocean waves, wind, and bubble plumes, providing valuable insights for improving predictive models and enhancing our understanding of air–sea interactions. Significance Statement: This research contributes to understanding bubble plume dynamics in the upper ocean and their relationship with sea state variables. The establishment of a power-law relationship between the bubble penetration depth and wind speed, along with the association between whitecapping coverage and acoustic backscatter intensity, contributes to improved predictive capabilities for air–sea interactions and carbon dioxide exchange. The identification of the potential influence of Langmuir circulation on bubble plume dynamics expands our understanding of the role of coherent circulations in transporting bubble plumes. Additionally, this study presents a clear methodology using commercial sensors such as an ADCP, which can be easily replicated by researchers worldwide, leading to potential advancements in our comprehension of bubble plume dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is one of the dominant coupled modes in the northeastern tropical Pacific (NETP), characterized by strip-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies spanning from Baja California to the central equatorial Pacific. While the majority of the El Niño events follow a positive PMM, only a few La Niña events are preceded by a negative PMM. Such an asymmetric activity of PMM before the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was previously attributed to the inherent nonlinear response of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback to trade winds in the NETP. Through data analysis and coupled model experiments, we pointed out that PMM is in fact a highly symmetric phenomenon, and the asymmetry of PMM before the ENSO onset thus must be associated with ENSO. On the one hand, the nonlinear response of deep convection over the equator to symmetric ENSO forcing in the central equatorial Pacific permits a stronger Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern in El Niño years than in La Niña years. On the other hand, since the majority of La Niña events are preceded by a sharp decay of an El Niño, the warm equatorial SST anomalies associated with the preceding El Niño provide another source to trigger PNA before the La Niña onset. The two mechanisms modulate the trade winds and heat fluxes in NETP more heavily before the La Niña onset than the El Niño onset and equally contribute to PMM asymmetry before the ENSO onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation in eastern China exhibits large interannual variability during July with the northward movement of the monsoon rain belt. Thus, eastern China usually experiences severe droughts and floods in July. However, the influences of underlying surface thermal drivers, particularly the land factors, remain poorly understood. This study investigates the leading modes of July precipitation in eastern China and their potential influencing factors. The first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes show meridional dipole and tripolar precipitation anomalies in eastern China, respectively. The EOF1 mode is found to be closely associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans in June, while the EOF2 mode is mainly linked to anomalous Indian Ocean SST and Indochina Peninsula soil moisture in June. During years with a strong El Niño–South Oscillation (ENSO) signal, the EOF1 mode is mainly related to the enhanced Walker and Hadley circulations associated with the cold tropical Pacific SST anomalies. In contrast, during years with a weak ENSO signal, the Eurasian midlatitude wave train and the westward zonal overturning circulation associated with tripole-like North Atlantic SST anomalies play a leading role. The EOF2 mode is mainly influenced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies that alter the Walker circulation and by soil moisture anomalies in the Indochina Peninsula that induce an anomalous regional cyclonic circulation. Numerical experiments further demonstrated that the combined effects of soil moisture and SST exert a more substantial impact than their individual effects. These results emphasize the importance of surface thermal factors in understanding regional climate dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East/Japan Sea (EJS), a marginal sea of the Northwestern Pacific, is one of the ocean regions showing the most rapid warming and greatest increases in ocean heatwaves over the last several decades. Predictability and skillful prediction of the summer season EJS variability are crucial, given the increasing severity of ocean temperature events impacting fisheries and reinforcing climate conditions like the East Asian rainy season, which in turn affects adjacent high-population density areas over East Asia. We use observations and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) seasonal forecast system to investigate the summertime EJS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) predictability and prediction skill. The observations and seasonal prediction system show that the summer season EJS SST can be closely linked to the previous winter air-sea coupling and predictable 8–9 months in advance. The SPEAR seasonal prediction system demonstrates skillful forecast of EJS SST events from summer to late fall, with added skill for long-lead forecasts initialized in winter. We find that winter large-scale atmospheric circulations linked to Barents Sea variability can induce persistent surface wind anomalies and corresponding northward Ekman heat transport over the East China Sea. The ocean advection anomalies that enter the EJS in prior seasons appear to play a role in developing anomalous SST during summer, along with instantaneous atmospheric forcing, as the source of long-lead predictability. Our findings provide potential applications of large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in understanding and predicting seasonal variability of East Asian marginal seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using in situ observations collected by a drifting air-sea interface buoy (DrIB) in the northern South China Sea from August 30 to September 13, 2018, the extreme air-sea turbulent fluxes that occurred from September 8 to 13 during tropical cyclone (TC) Barijat were investigated. The most striking features were substantial increases in momentum and heat fluxes, with maximum increases of 10.8 m s-1 in the wind speed (WS), 0.73 N m-2 in the wind stress, 68.1 W m-2 in the sensible heat fluxes (SH) and 258.8 W m-2 in the latent heat fluxes (LH). The maximum WS, wind stress, SH and LH values amounted to 15.3 m s-1, 0.8 N m-2, 70.9 W m-2 and 329.9 W m-2, respectively. Using these new DrIB observations, the performance of two state-of-the-art, high-resolution reanalysis products, ERA5 and MERRA2, was assessed. The consistency of the observed values with ERA5 was slightly better than with MERRA2, reflected in higher correlations but both products underestimated the WS during TC conditions. In calm weather conditions, the turbulent heat fluxes were overestimated, because they simulated a too dry and cold atmospheric state, enhancing the air-sea differences in temperature and humidity. Considering that an accurate representation of the air-sea turbulent and momentum fluxes is essential for understanding and predicting ocean and atmospheric variability, our findings indicate that more high-quality temperature and relative humidity observations are required to evaluate and improve existing reanalysis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study uses reanalysis data to investigate how the East Asian cold surges are linked to the initiation of westerly wind anomalies prior to El Niño events and easterly wind anomalies prior to La Niña events in the western equatorial Pacific. Our analysis shows that East Asian cold surge events can be associated with the formation of an anomalous anticyclone that moves eastward across the North Pacific and cools the ocean surface prior to El Niño events. The outflow of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation is responsible for the initiation of westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. We also find that East Asian cold surge events are involved in the development of an anomalous cyclone that moves northeastward along the subpolar North Pacific and reinforces the horizontal temperature gradient prior to La Niña events. The cross-equatorial flow into the anomalous cyclone in the North Pacific contributes to the development of easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. We show that air-sea interactions can play a role in the propagation of anomalous circulations across the North Pacific, eventually initiating zonal wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observed negative response of sea surface temperature (SST) to local summer rainfall peaks, with a lag of 5–10 days over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region, questions the accuracy of atmospheric models in simulating intraseasonal variability. An Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulation forced by daily-varying SSTs (daily-AMIP) is used to evaluate the above question through comparison with its parallel coupled general circulation model (CGCM). In comparison to CGCM, daily-AMIP overestimates intraseasonal rainfall variability, especially over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific, consistent with differences in the mean state featuring a cyclonic low-level circulation pattern. Nevertheless, both CGCM and daily-AMIP demonstrate similar northward propagation of rainfall anomalies on the intraseasonal timescale, but daily-AMIP presents a larger amplitude, attributed to the absence of high-frequency ocean-atmosphere coupling and a stronger conversion of kinetic energy due to enhanced monsoon-trade winds confluence. The feedback of the ocean to the atmosphere is realized through surface heat flux exchange, and the near-quadrature relationship between intraseasonal SST and rainfall is considered evidence for ocean-atmosphere interaction. Implications for assessing the ability of AMIP to simulate intraseasonal variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The super long La Niña phenomenon, which has an extremely long duration, like the recent 2020–2023 La Niña event, is less concerned than the super El Niño. In this study, we identify five super long La Niña events after 1950 and investigate roles of the 2–3-year quasi-biennial (QB) and 3–7-year low-frequency (LF) ocean–atmosphere coupled processes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the interdecadal background in forming the large-scale prolonged negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific during these events. We group the five events into the thermocline-driven type (the 1983–1986 and 1998–2002 events) and the wind-driven type (the 1954–1957, 1973–1976, and 2020–2023 events). The former inherited a sufficiently discharged state of equatorial upper-ocean heat content from the preceding super El Niño and dominated by the thermocline feedback, leading to a LF oceanic dynamical adjustment to support the maintenance of negative ENSO SSTAs. The latter were promoted by the relatively more important zonal advective feedback and Ekman pumping feedback and deeply affected by a strongly negative equatorial zonal wind stress background state that sourced from the strong negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Besides, the QB ENSO variability with casual contributions during these events is less important. Results show that both the LF ENSO variability and the interdecadal Pacific background could assist in generating prolonged La Niñas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has revealed links between a quasi-decadal mode of climate variability over the North Pacific – the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP) – and the North Pacific's western boundary current's extension – the Kuroshio Extension (KE). It is suggested that on decadal time scales the PDP both responds to and influences the KE variability. A question yet to be answered is whether it is the large-scale or the mesoscale variations of the KE region that link with the PDP evolution. Using high-resolution sea surface temperature data (1981–2018) from the global ocean Operational Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Analysis, low-resolution Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) version 3b data (1949–2018), geopotential height reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) we find that it is the large-scale variations in the KE region that correlate best with the PDP-like response in the overlying and downstream atmosphere as compared to the mesoscale variations. In particular, the second mode of the large-scale KE region, which is characterized by the warming (cooling) of the ocean south (north) of the KE, sets up a PDP-like north-south atmospheric pressure dipole over the North Pacific Ocean by altering the large-scale baroclinicity of the atmosphere and zonal intensification of the subtropical jet stream. In turn, there is a reduction in the zonal propagation of stationary wave energy and an enhancement of the climatological zonal wave heights over North America, which results in a downstream response over the North American continent and the formation of a subsequent east-west pressure dipole over the North Pacific and North American continent. As a result, there is a strong correlation between large-scale SST variations in the KE region and the evolution of the PDP over the next three years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements collected by a Remote Environmental Monitoring Units (REMUS) 600 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) off the coast of southern California demonstrate large-scale coherent wave-driven vortices, consistent with Langmuir turbulence (LT), and played a dominant role in structuring turbulent dissipation within the oceanic surface boundary layer. During a 10-h period with sustained wind speeds of 10 m s−1, Langmuir circulations were limited to the upper third of the surface mixed layer by persistent stratification within the water column. The ensemble-averaged circulation, calculated using conditional averaging of acoustic Doppler dual current profile (AD2CP) velocity profiles using elevated backscattering intensity associated with subsurface bubble clouds, indicates that LT vortex pairs were characterized by an energetic downwelling zone flanked by broader, weaker upwelling regions with vertical velocity magnitudes similar to previous numerical studies of LT. Horizontally distributed microstructure estimates of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates were lognormally distributed near the surface in the wave mixing layer with the majority of values falling between wall layer scaling and wave transport layer scaling. Partitioning dissipation rates between downwelling centers and ambient conditions suggests that LT may play a dominant role in elevating dissipation rates in the ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) by redistributing wave-breaking turbulence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic suspended particulate matter (SPM) plays important roles in the coupling of climate and biogeochemical cycles via ocean–atmosphere interactions. However, methods for quantifying the properties of SPM in seawater have not yet been well established. Here we present the application of the recently developed complex amplitude sensor (CAS) for analyzing the complex forward-scattering amplitude of individual SPM (0.2–5.0 µm in diameter) obtained at depths of 0–100 m during a research cruise in the western North Pacific. The measured distribution of the complex amplitude indicated that the CAS-derived SPM data could be roughly classified into five major types. Comparison with reference sample's complex amplitude data and scanning electron microscopy analysis suggested that these types could be attributed mainly to diatom fragments, carbonaceous materials (likely organic matter), mineral dusts, iron oxides, or black carbon. Depth profiles revealed that relatively high concentrations of SPM, presumably dominated by diatom fragments and carbonaceous materials with peak diameters of 0.7–1.0 µm, were typically associated with elevated turbidities and chlorophyll a concentrations. Based on this case study, we discuss the practical advantages and limitations of using the CAS to measure size-resolved concentrations of SPM in seawater and to characterize its composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1979 to 2022, the summer monsoon precipitation has increased by a substantial 40% over Northwest India compared to the 1980s. This wetting trend aligns with the future projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The observationally constrained reanalysis data indicates that significant sea surface warming in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea is likely driving this increase in rainfall by enhancing the cross‐equatorial monsoonal flow and associated evaporation. We demonstrate that the strengthening of the cross‐equatorial monsoon winds is due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean and the enhanced Pacific Ocean trade winds, which result from the poleward shift and expansion of the Hadley cell. These strengthened winds boost the latent heat flux (evaporation), leading to increased moisture transport to Northwest India. Plain Language Summary: From 1979 to 2022, the summer monsoon precipitation has increased by a substantial 40% over Northwest India compared to the 1980s. The analysis suggests that a noticeable warming of the sea surface in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea could be causing this increase in rainfall. This warming strengthens the winds crossing the equator in the Indian Ocean and increases evaporation. The study also shows that the monsoon winds are strengthened due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean and the enhanced Pacific Ocean trade winds. These stronger winds cause more evaporation, which means more moisture is carried from the ocean to the land, leading to increased monsoon rainfall. Key Points: Large increase in summer monsoon precipitation over Northwest IndiaThe strengthening of the monsoon winds and the Indian Ocean warming drives increasing evaporationPoleward shift and expansion of high‐pressure belts and the Indian Ocean warming are responsible for the strengthening of winds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-water formation in the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (eSPNA) and Nordic Seas is crucial for maintaining the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of consequence for global climate. However, it is still uncertain which processes determine the deep-water formation and how much Atlantic and Arctic waters respectively contribute to the lower limb. To address this, here we used Lagrangian trajectories to diagnose a global eddy-resolving ocean model that agrees well with recent observations highlighting the eSPNA as a primary source of the AMOC lower limb. Comprised of 72% Atlantic waters and 28% Arctic waters, the density and depth of the AMOC lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing, primarily in the vicinity of Denmark Strait. In contrast, Atlantic waters gaining density through air-sea interaction along the eastern periphery of Nordic Seas and not entering the Arctic Ocean make a negligible contribution to the lower limb. The authors use a global eddy-resolving ocean model and show that the Atlantic-Arctic mixing is necessary for determining the density and depth of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation return flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the added value (AV) of a regional Earth system model (ESM) compared to an atmosphere-only regional climate model (RCM) in simulating West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall. The primary goals are to foster discussions on the suitability of coupled RCMs for WAM projections and deepen our understanding of ocean–atmosphere coupling's influence on the WAM system. The study employs results from dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim reanalysis and Max Plank Institute ESM, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR), by two RCMs, atmosphere only (REMO) and REMO coupled with Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) (ROM), at ∼25-km horizontal resolution. Results show that in regions distant from coupling domain boundaries such as West Africa (WA), constraint conditions from ERA-Interim are more beneficial than coupling effects. REMO, reliant on oceanic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from observations and influenced by ERA-Interim, is biased under coupling conditions, although coupling offers potential advantages in representing heat and mass fluxes. Contrastingly, as intended, coupling improves SSTs and monsoon fluxes' relationships under ESM-forced conditions. In this latter case, the coupling features a dipole-like spatial structure of AV, improving precipitation over the Guinea Coast but degrading precipitation over half of the Sahel. Our extensive examination of physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the WAM system supports the plausibility of AV. Additionally, we found that the monsoonal dynamics over the ocean respond to convective activity, with the Sahara–Sahel surface temperature gradient serving as the maintenance mechanism. While further efforts are needed to enhance the coupled RCM, we advocate for its use in the context of WAM rainfall forecasts and projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used daily sea surface temperature (SST) data and hourly drifter data to investigate ocean responses to tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and outer size (wind radius of 34 kt, or R34) in the Northwest Pacific. Results showed that SST cooling is more sensitive to TC R34 than to TC intensity; namely, TCs with a larger R34 cause stronger SST cooling regardless of their intensity. TCs with an R34 ≥125 nmi could cool SST 0.9°C more than TCs with an R34<125 nmi. Drifter data indicated that TCs generate a large current with near-inertial periods. The filtered near-inertial currents were used to calculate the time series of near-inertial kinetic energy Ef, and found that TCs with a larger R34 will trigger stronger Ef. Further analysis revealed that the non-dimensional storm speed S, which is defined as the ratio of the local near-inertial period to the residence time of the TC, is correlated closely with the amplitude of SST cooling when R34 is used to quantify the scale of the TC. Most TCs have a residence time smaller than the local near-inertial period, and therefore, TCs with a large R34 have longer residence times and are closer to the local near-inertial period, which is favorable for stronger SST and current responses. This impact of TC outer size on the surface ocean response implies the critical role of TC outer size in ocean processes under a TC background. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of spring warm pool in the Bay of Bengal (BoBWP) is key for further understanding the climate variability in this region and beyond, but little is known about the BoBWP climatological state and the related mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the spatial structure and evolution of the BoBWP using daily Optimum Interpolation SST data from 1982-2022 in combination with multi-source data. Our analysis shows that the BoBWP is located in the central bay (6°-13°N) with a thickness around 20m~ 40 m. Composite analysis indicates that the BoBWP emerges in early April, peaks in early May and dissipates in early June. During the developing period, the net heat flux dominates the formation of spring warm pool through significant air-sea coupling processes, and induces the warming rate of 0.27°C/10d in the mixed layer, which is far larger than the contribution of oceanic dynamical processes (0.01°C/10d). During the decaying period, the net heat flux also plays a dominant role, with a cooling rate of -0.21°C/10d, meanwhile ocean dynamical processes contribute to the cooling of the warm pool with a rate of -0.01°C/10d. Additionally, the SST and the area of the BoBWP are significantly correlated with ENSO (r=0.66 and 0.73, p=0.05). During El Niño decaying year, the BoBWP primarily expands in a southward direction, with a 75% increase in area. Conversely, during La Niña decaying year, the BoBWP almost disappears, with a 52% decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces an innovative analytical methodology for examining the interconnections among the atmosphere, ocean, and society. The primary area of interest pertains to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a notable phenomenon characterised by daily to decadal fluctuations in atmospheric conditions over the Northern Hemisphere. The NAO has a prominent impact on winter weather patterns in North America, Europe, and to some extent, Asia. This impact has significant ramifications for civilization, as well as for marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, and food chains. Accurate predictions of the surface NAO hold significant importance for society in terms of energy consumption planning and adaptation to severe winter conditions, such as winter wind and snowstorms, which can result in property damage and disruptions to transportation networks. Moreover, it is crucial to improve climate forecasts in order to bolster the resilience of food systems. This would enable producers to quickly respond to expected changes and make the required modifications, such as adjusting their food output or expanding their product range, in order to reduce potential hazards. The forecast centres prioritise and actively research the predictability and variability of the NAO. Nevertheless, it is increasingly evident that conventional analytical methods and prediction models that rely solely on scientific methodologies are inadequate in comprehensively addressing the transdisciplinary dimension of NAO variability. This includes a comprehensive view of research, forecasting, and social ramifications. This study introduces a new framework that combines sophisticated Big Data analytic techniques and forecasting tools using a generalised additive model to investigate the fluctuations of the NAO and the interplay between the ocean and atmosphere. Additionally, it explores innovative approaches to analyze the socio-economic response associated with these phenomena using text mining tools, specifically modern deep learning techniques. The analysis is conducted on an extensive corpora of free text information sourced from media outlets, public companies, government reports, and newspapers. Overall, the result shows that the NAO index has been reproduced well by the Deep-NAO model with a correlation coefficient of 0.74. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas play a crucial role in regional development and the environment, but they are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events due to global climate change. Sea surface temperature (SST) is an important parameter in the ocean-atmosphere system and can help monitor and understand climate change. Changes in SST have significant impacts on extreme weather events, such as typhoons, and can threaten the safety of coastal cities. Advances in satellite remote sensing technology have improved the accuracy and resolution of SST data, providing new opportunities for studying the impact of SST on urban development in coastal cities. Future research should focus on the impact of SST on the ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux, climate change, typhoons, hazardous weather, the energy balance of coastal megacities, and sea-land breeze circulation. [Extracted from the article]

Reconstructing the spatial patterns in thermocline depth is critical for understanding ocean‐atmosphere interactions. Previous foraminiferal proxies of thermocline depth focus on gradients between planktonic foraminifera living in the surface and subsurface ocean. However, both thermocline depth changes and stratification changes will impact this measure. In this study, we outline a method for reconstructing the tropical upper ocean vertical water column profile, enabling the separate assessment of thermocline depth and stratification changes. This method uses oxygen isotope data from surface and sub‐surface calcifying planktonic foraminifera (Globigerinoides ruber albus, Globorotalia tumida, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata) as well as data from benthic foraminifera from a core site below the thermocline. Using newly generated and compiled oxygen isotope data from Holocene‐aged marine sediments, we construct vertical profiles at 20 core sites in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. Quantitative estimates of thermocline depth along with error ranges from Monte Carlo simulations are extracted from the reconstructed profiles. There is a strong correlation between reconstructed Holocene and climatological thermocline depth, but the East‐West contrast in the depth of the thermocline is underestimated by 30%. Incorporating benthic information in thermocline estimates results in a dramatic improvement in the reconstruction of spatial gradients in thermocline depth compared to a simpler proxy, the difference in oxygen isotope ratio between a deeper calcifying planktonic species and the surface species, G. ruber. Plain Language Summary: The thermocline is a layer of the ocean where temperature changes rapidly, and the depth of this layer is related to many climatic phenomena. Understanding where and when this layer was deeper and shallower in the past is important to our overall understanding of the climate system. We outline a novel method to reconstruct the thermocline with microscopic shells collected from the sea floor. Our method can reconstruct the changes we see across the Pacific today and also recreate the changes found between the last ice age and today. Key Points: We show a novel method for reconstructing the upper water column using oxygen isotope measurements on multiple species of foraminiferaThis method can be used to quantitatively reconstruct spatial and temporal changes in thermocline depthIf a simple differencing method is preferred, thermocline depth can be most accurately reconstructed using subsurface species only [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]