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The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) plays a central role in redistributing water masses, sea ice, and tracer properties around the Antarctic margins, and in mediating cross-slope exchanges. While the ASC has historically been understood as a wind-driven circulation, recent studies have highlighted important momentum transfers due to mesoscale eddies and tidal flows. Furthermore, momentum input due to wind stress is transferred through sea ice to the ASC during most of the year, yet previous studies have typically considered the circulations of the ocean and sea ice independently. Thus, it remains unclear how the momentum input from the winds is mediated by sea ice, tidal forcing, and transient eddies in the ocean, and how the resulting momentum transfers serve to structure the ASC. In this study the dynamics of the coupled ocean–sea ice–ASC circulation are investigated using high-resolution process-oriented simulations and interpreted with the aid of a reduced-order model. In almost all simulations considered here, sea ice redistributes almost 100% of the wind stress away from the continental slope, resulting in approximately identical sea ice and ocean surface flows in the core of the ASC in a fully spun-up equilibrium state. This ice–ocean coupling results from suppression of vertical momentum transfer by mesoscale eddies over the continental slope, which allows the sea ice to accelerate the ocean surface flow until the speeds coincide. Tidal acceleration of the along-slope flow exaggerates this effect and may even result in ocean-to-ice momentum transfer. The implications of these findings for along- and across-slope transport of water masses and sea ice around Antarctica are discussed.

To project the future sea level rise in the East Asian Seas due to global warming, regional sea level variations are downscaled from three climate system models (GFDL-CM2.1, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, MIROC3.2(hires)) using a global ocean-sea ice coupled model with non-Boussinesq approximation. Based on the SRES A1B Scenario, the projected ensemble mean sea level rise (rate of rise) for the East Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 1995 to 2050 is 15.60cm (2.84mm/year), 16.49cm (3.0mm/year) and 16.43cm (2.99mm/year), respectively. With the inclusion of the future change of land ice melting and land water storage, the mean sea level rise (rate of rise) increases to 33.55cm (6.10mm/year) for the East Sea, and 34.38~34.44cm (6.25~6.26mm/year) for the Yellow and East China Seas. The present non-Boussinesq ocean model experiment shows that the future sea level rise in the East Sea is mainly due to the steric component changes by heat content increase. On the other hand, the future sea level rise in the Yellow and East China Seas appears to be mainly associated with the non-steric component change by water mass convergence.

Antarctic sea ice is prevalently seen as a major player in the climate system, but it is also an important factor in polar maritime safety. Remote sensing and forecasting of Southern Ocean sea ice ...

With the assimilation of satellite-based sea-ice thickness (SIT) data, the new SIT reanalysis from the Towards an Operational Prediction system for the North Atlantic European coastal Zones (TOPAZ4) was released from 2014 to 2018. Apart from assimilating sea-ice concentration and oceanic variables, TOPAZ4 further assimilates CS2SMOS SIT. In this study, the 5-year reanalysis is compared with CS2SMOS, the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilating System (PIOMAS) and the Combined Model and Satellite Thickness (CMST). Moreover, we evaluate TOPAZ4 SIT with field observations from upward-looking sonar (ULS), ice mass-balance buoys, Operation IceBridge Quicklook and Sea State Ship-borne Observations. The results indicate TOPAZ4 well reproduces the spatial characteristics of the Arctic SIT distributions, with large differences with CS2SMOS/PIOMAS/CMST mainly restricted to the Atlantic Sector and to the month of September. TOPAZ4 shows thinner ice in March and April, especially to the north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago with a mean bias of −0.30 m when compared to IceBridge. Besides, TOPAZ4 simulates thicker ice in the Beaufort Sea when compared to ULS, with a mean bias of 0.11 m all year round. The benefit from assimilating SIT data in TOPAZ4 is reflected in a 34% improvement in root mean square deviation.

The falling ice (snow) radiative effects (FIREs) have previously been shown to contribute substantially to reduced discrepancies in simulations of present-day climatology of radiation, skin temperatures and sea ice concentration and thickness over the Southern Ocean. This study extends to examine the impacts of FIREs on simulation of sea ice changes under a scenario of gradual increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. We perform a pair of sensitivity experiments including (CESM1-SoN) and excluding (CESM1-NoS) FIREs using Community Earth System Model version 1. The differences in the annual and seasonal means between the initial and warmer periods are examined. Relative to CESM1-SoN, CESM1-NoS simulates more surface reflected shortwave and less downward longwave radiative warming, as well as colder surface temperature, resulting in larger annual-mean sea ice extent and thickness and slower seasonal and long-term sea ice melting and thinning. Over the Southern Ocean of CESM1-SoN, reduced downwelling longwave radiation in austral winter (June-July-August: JJA) leads to sea-ice growth with colder skin temperature while reduced net radiation resulting from increased shortwave reflection in austral summer reduces the melting of sea ice with little change in skin temperature. CESM1-NoS shows seasonal and long-term trends similar to those in CMIP5 models that exclude FIREs, hinting slower future warming-driven changes and larger amplitude of the annual cycle in sea ice concentration and thickness. The ice-free Southern Ocean in peak melting season is simulated at approximately year 130 for CESM1-NoS but year 100 for CESM1-SoN, about 30 years later than that of the Arctic.

This article urges a rethinking of South Asian cosmography to counter our notion of seascapes lying outside notions of sovereignty, territoriality and technologies of control. While seas have emerged as central to economic and political security for most of the worlds’ states, this is seen as a comparatively new phenomenon because South Asia’s territoriality has always been seen as land-based. The emphasis on the modern has resulted in a neglect of South Asia’s rich tradition of maritime expressiveness and generates a ‘maritime blindness’ affecting policy formulation, despite works on seafaring which trace diverse maritime perceptions from Pali and Sanskrit literature, sculptures, coins, paintings and epigraphy.This article claims that waterscapes were not absent in Asian ideas of territoriality, but differentiating between awareness in literary expressions of political selfhood wherein rulers saw the sea as boundary or even space of overlordship, and actual instances of ordering and controlling maritime spaces is important. By contrast, China’s example as keeper of meticulous records pertaining to maritime matters shows attempts at actively controlling maritime spaces and provides new ways of reading South Asian perceptions of the sea.

The lack of continuous spatial and temporal sampling of hydrographic measurements in large parts of the Arctic Ocean remains a major obstacle for quantifying mean state and variability of the Arctic Ocean circulation. This shortcoming motivates an assessment of the utility of Argo-type floats, the challenges of deploying such floats due to the presence of sea ice, and the implications of extended times of no surfacing on hydrographic inferences. Within the framework of an Arctic coupled ocean–sea ice state estimate that is constrained to available satellite and in situ observations, we establish metrics for quantifying the usefulness of such floats. The likelihood of float surfacing strongly correlates with the annual sea ice minimum cover. Within the float lifetime of 4–5 years, surfacing frequency ranges from 10–100 days in seasonally sea ice–covered regions to 1–3 years in multiyear sea ice–covered regions. The longer the float drifts under ice without surfacing, the larger the uncertainty in its position, which translates into larger uncertainties in hydrographic measurements. Below the mixed layer, especially in the western Arctic, normalized errors remain below 1, suggesting that measurements along a path whose only known positions are the beginning and end points can help constrain numerical models and reduce hydrographic uncertainties. The error assessment presented is a first step in the development of quantitative methods for guiding the design of observing networks. These results can and should be used to inform a float network design with suggested locations of float deployment and associated expected hydrographic uncertainties.

The response of near-Antarctic waters to freshening by increased glacial melt is investigated using a high-resolution (0.1°) global ocean–sea ice model with realistic Antarctic water-mass properties. Two meltwater perturbation experiments are conducted where the ocean model is forced with constant elevated glacial melt rates of 1.5 and 2.8 times the control rate. Within 10 years of the onset of enhanced meltwater forcing, the generation of Antarctic Bottom Water from Dense Shelf Water ceases, as shelf waters become increasingly buoyant. Increased ocean stratification triggers subsurface warming in Dense Shelf Water source regions, suggesting a localized positive feedback to melt. In a parallel response, meltwater forcing enhances the subsurface lateral density gradients of the Antarctic Slope Front that modulate the transport of warm Circumpolar Deep Water across the continental slope toward ice shelf grounding lines. Consequently, coastal freshening acts to isolate the Antarctic Ice Sheet from open ocean heat, suggesting a cooling response to melt that counteracts warming associated with stratification. Further, these strengthening density gradients accelerate westward geostrophic currents along the coast and shelf break, homogenizing shelf waters and amplifying remote feedbacks. The net effect on the continental shelf is transient warming, followed by cooling in both experiments; however, this signal is the aggregate of a complex pattern of regional warming and cooling responses. These results suggest coastal freshening by meltwater may alter the thermal forcing of the Antarctic ice sheet in ways that both accelerate and inhibit ice shelf melt at different locations along the Antarctic coastline.

In this study, we analyzed the impacts of Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Based on a clustering analysis method, we grouped TCs in the Western North Pacific into three clusters according to their track patterns. We mainly focus on Cluster 1 (C1) TCs in this work, which is characterized by forming north of 15° N and moving northward. On interannual timescale, the number of C1 TCs is influenced by the intensity variability of the WNPSH, which is represented by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of 850 hPa geopotential height of the region. The WNPSH itself is modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation at its peak phase in the previous winter, as well as Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies in following seasons. The second EOF mode shows the interdecadal change of WNPSH intensity. The interdecadal variability of WNPSH intensity related to the Pacific climate regime shift could cause anomalies of the steering flow, and lead to the longitudinal shift of C1 TC track. Negative phases of interdecadal Pacific oscillation are associated with easterly anomaly of steering flow, westward shift of C1 TC track, and large TC impact on the East Asia coastal area.

In the background of global warming, the necessity for finding a new predictor of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is realised recently as the relationship between the ISMR and the predictive physical parameters keeps changing both in space and time. We developed a linkage between the satellite-derived sea ice over the Southern Ocean and ISMR through the interaction of physical processes occurring between the cryosphere, hydrosphere, and atmospheric environment. The statistical and possible physical linkage were explored using consistent and reliable 38-year time series observations. Lead-lag cross correlation indicated a significant relationship between Southern Ocean sea ice (SOSI) extent and ISMR over the Bellingshausen–Amundsen Sea (BAS). The most significant relationship was obtained in austral autumn (r = −0.5, p

The Weddell Gyre's variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is investigated using an ocean-sea ice model at three different horizontal resolutions. The model is evaluated against availabl...

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a state-of-the-science Earth system model (ESM) with the ability to focus horizontal resolution of its multiple components in specific areas. Regionally refined global ESMs are motivated by the need to explicitly resolve, rather than parameterize, relevant physics within the regions of refined resolution, while offering significant computational cost savings relative to the respective cost of high-resolution (HR) global configurations. In this paper, we document results from the first Arctic regionally refined E3SM configuration for the ocean and sea-ice components (E3SM-Arctic-OSI), while employing data-based atmosphere, land, and hydrology components. Our aim is an improved representation of the Arctic coupled ocean and sea ice state, its variability and trends, and the exchanges of mass and property fluxes between the Arctic and the Subarctic. We find that E3SM-Arctic-OSI increases the realism of simulated Arctic ocean and sea ice conditions compared to a similar low-resolution E3SM simulation without the Arctic regional refinement in ocean and sea ice components (E3SM-LR-OSI). In particular, exchanges through the main Arctic gateways are greatly improved with respect to E3SM-LR-OSI. Other aspects, such as the Arctic freshwater content variability and sea-ice trends, are also satisfactorily simulated. Yet, other features, such as the upper ocean stratification and the sea-ice thickness distribution, need further improvements, involving either more advanced parameterizations, model tuning, or additional grid refinements. Overall, E3SM-Arctic-OSI offers an improved representation of the Arctic system relative to E3SM-LR-OSI, at a fraction (15 %) of the computational cost of comparable global high-resolution configurations, while permitting exchanges with the lower latitude oceans that can not be directly accounted for in Arctic regional models.

Two high-resolution model simulations are used to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the Arctic Ocean sea level. The model simulations reveal barotropic sea level variability at periods of

Southern Ocean sea ice plays a central role in the oceanic meridional overturning circulation, transforming globally prevalent watermasses through surface buoyancy loss and gain. Buoyancy loss due to surface cooling and sea ice growth promotes the formation of bottom water that flows into the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific basins, while buoyancy gain due to sea ice melt helps transform the returning deep flow into intermediate and mode waters. Because northward expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19–23 kyr BP) may have enhanced deep ocean stratification and contributed to lower atmospheric CO₂ levels, reconstructions of sea ice extent are critical to understanding the LGM climate state. Here, we present a new sea ice proxy based on the ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratio of foraminifera (δ¹⁸O_c). In the seasonal sea ice zone, sea ice formation during austral winter creates a cold surface mixed layer that persists in the sub-surface during spring and summer. The cold sub-surface layer, known as winter water, sits above relatively warm deep water, creating an inverted temperature profile. The unique surface-to-deep temperature contrast is reflected in estimates of equilibrium δ¹⁸O_c, implying that paired analysis of planktonic and benthic foraminifera can be used to infer sea ice extent. To demonstrate the feasibility of the δ¹⁸O_c method, we present a compilation of N. pachyderma and Cibicidoides spp. results from the Atlantic sector that yields an estimate of winter sea ice extent consistent with modern observations.

The global mean surface air temperature (GMST) shows multidecadal variability over the period of 1910–2013, with an increasing trend. This study quantifies the contribution of hemispheric surface air temperature (SAT) variations and individual ocean sea surface temperature (SST) changes to the GMST multidecadal variability for 1910–2013. At the hemispheric scale, both the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 (CAM5.3) simulation indicate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) favors the GMST multidecadal trend during periods of accelerated warming (1910–1945, 1975–1998) and cooling (1940–1975, 2001–2013), whereas the Southern Hemisphere (SH) slows the intensity of both warming and cooling processes. The contribution of the NH SAT variation to the GMST multidecadal trend is higher than that of the SH. We conduct six experiments with different ocean SST forcing, and find that all the oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend during rapid warming periods. However, only the Indian, North Atlantic, and western Pacific oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend between 1940 and 1975, whereas only the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific SSTs contribute to the GMST multidecadal trend between 2001 and 2013. The North Atlantic and western Pacific oceans have important impacts on modulating the GMST multidecadal trend across the entire 20th century. Each ocean makes different contributions to the SAT multidecadal trend of different continents during different periods.

As part of the ongoing development of an ocean data assimilation system for operational ocean monitoring and seasonal prediction, an adjoint sea ice model was developed that incorporates sea ice rheology, which was omitted from previously developed adjoint models to avoid model instability. The newly developed adjoint model was merged with the existing system to construct a global ocean–sea ice adjoint model. A series of sensitivity experiments, in which idealized initial values were given for the adjoint sea ice area fraction and thickness, were conducted, with particular attention to the differences between the cases with free-drift approximation in the adjoint sea ice model as in previous studies and with full sea ice dynamics including rheology. The internal stress effects represented in the adjoint rheology induced remarkable differences in the evolution of the initialized and generated adjoint variables, such as for the sea ice velocity by O(102) in magnitude, which highlighted the importance of the adjoint rheology in the central Arctic Ocean. In addition, sensitivities with respect to the nonprognostic variables associated with the sea ice dynamics were obtained only through the adjoint rheology. These results suggested a potential for providing an improved global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice state estimation through a four-dimensional variational approach with the adjoint sea ice model as developed in this study.

Anthropogenic influences have led to a strengthening and poleward shift of westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, especially during austral summer. We use observations, an idealized eddy-resolving ocean sea ice channel model, and a global coupled model to explore the Southern Ocean response to a step change in westerly winds. Previous work hypothesized a two time scale response for sea surface temperature. Initially, Ekman transport cools the surface before sustained upwelling causes warming on decadal time scales. The fast response is robust across our models and the observations: We find Ekman-driven cooling in the mixed layer, mixing-driven warming below the mixed layer, and a small upwelling-driven warming at the temperature inversion. The long-term response is inaccessible from observations. Neither of our models shows a persistent upwelling anomaly, or long-term, upwelling-driven subsurface warming. Mesoscale eddies act to oppose the anomalous wind-driven upwelling, through a process known as eddy compensation, thereby preventing long-term warming. ©2019

Strong tidal currents in and around the narrow straits of the Lesser Sunda Islands, Indonesia, affect ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) via non-linear tide-induced mixing. A fortnightly spring–neap cycle in tidal currents can induce a similar cycle in SST, which has been observed to occur in and south of Lombok Strait. Here we report on an atmospheric response to the fortnightly SST cycle which is detected in relative humidity and air temperature measurements at Bali. The fortnightly cycles in both the ocean SST and the Bali atmospheric data have a strong seasonal cycle, with peak signals occurring during boreal summer.

A description and assessment of the first release of the Arctic Subpolar gyre sTate Estimate (ASTE_R1), a data‐constrained ocean‐sea ice model‐data synthesis, is presented. ASTE_R1 has a nominal resolution of 1/3° and spans the period 2002–2017. The fit of the model to an extensive (O(109)) set of satellite and in situ observations was achieved through adjoint‐based nonlinear least squares optimization. The improvement of the solution compared to an unconstrained simulation is reflected in misfit reductions of 77% for Argo, 50% for satellite sea surface height, 58% for the Fram Strait mooring, 65% for Ice Tethered Profilers, and 83% for sea ice extent. Exact dynamical and kinematic consistency is a key advantage of ASTE_R1, distinguishing the state estimate from existing ocean reanalyses. Through strict adherence to conservation laws, all sources and sinks within ASTE_R1 can be accounted for, permitting meaningful analysis of closed budgets at the grid‐scale, such as contributions of horizontal and vertical convergence to the tendencies of heat and salt. ASTE_R1 thus serves as the biggest effort undertaken to date of producing a specialized Arctic ocean‐ice estimate over the 21st century. Transports of volume, heat, and freshwater are consistent with published observation‐based estimates across important Arctic Mediterranean gateways. Interannual variability and low frequency trends of freshwater and heat content are well represented in the Barents Sea, western Arctic halocline, and east subpolar North Atlantic. Systematic biases remain in ASTE_R1, including a warm bias in the Atlantic Water layer in the Arctic and deficient freshwater inputs from rivers and Greenland discharge.

This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy‐ESPC) coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low‐resolution 16‐member ensemble system and (2) a high‐resolution deterministic system. The Navy‐ESPC ensemble system became operational in August 2020, and this is the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. A unique aspect of the Navy‐ESPC is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12° in the ensemble and at 1/25° in the deterministic configurations. The component models are current Navy operational systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the atmosphere, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean, and Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice. Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), were introduced into NAVGEM. The low‐resolution ensemble configuration and high‐resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts from January 2017 to January 2018. Navy‐ESPC ensemble forecast skill for large‐scale atmospheric phenomena, such as the MJO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices, is comparable to that of other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. Ensemble forecasts of ocean sea surface temperatures perform better than climatology in the tropics and midlatitudes out to 60 days. In addition, the Navy‐ESPC Pan‐Arctic and Pan‐Antarctic sea ice extent predictions perform better than climatology out to about 45 days, although the skill is dependent on season.

We present an Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalysis covering the period 2007–2016 based on the adjoint approach of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium. The spatiotemporal variation of Arctic sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC), and sea ice thickness (SIT) is substantially improved after the assimilation of ocean and sea ice observations. By assimilating additional World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18) hydrographic data, the freshwater content of the Canadian Basin becomes closer to the observations and translates into changes of the ocean circulation and of transports through the Fram and Davis straits. This new reanalysis compares well with previous filter‐based (TOPAZ4) and nudging‐based (PIOMAS) reanalyses regarding SIC and SST. Benefiting from using the adjoint of the sea ice model, our reanalysis is superior to the ECCOv4r4 product considering sea ice parameters. However, the mean state and variability of the freshwater content and the transport properties of our reanalysis remain different from TOPAZ4 and ECCOv4r4, likely because of a lack of hydrographic observations., Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly and reached a record minimum in September, 2012. Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalyses are invaluable sources for understanding the Arctic sea ice changes. We produce an Arctic ocean–sea ice reanalysis of the years 2007–2016 using the adjoint method. The reanalysis is dynamically consistent without introducing unphysical mass and energy discontinuities as in filter‐based data assimilation methods.

Proxy records and climate models suggest that the Last Interglacial (LIG, ~130 to 115 thousand years before present) was characterised by high-latitude air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) slightly warmer than present, and by mean global sea level a few metres higher. Therefore, the LIG is widely used as an analogue for near-future oceanographic/climatic conditions. Of particular interest is the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s contribution to rapid sea level rise and to Southern Ocean surface freshening, in response to warming. In the Southern Ocean, existing LIG temperature reconstructions suffer from very high variance amongst a low number of individual records. Recent syntheses have focused on the LIG climatic optimum, but conditions during the penultimate glacial are also important for forcing transient climate or Antarctic Ice Sheet simulations. Here we use databases of modern core-top sediments to evaluate the strengths of SST proxies available in the Southern Ocean, and consider their likely sources of bias and variance. By selecting only those paleo-temperature reconstructions which we believe are reliable in this region, we then compile a Southern Ocean SST synthesis covering the penultimate glacial and the LIG. This longer temperature time series can be used as a basis for LIG ice sheet simulations or for climate model development.

The 79° North Glacier (79NG) is the largest of the marine terminating glaciers fed by the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), which drains around 15% of the Greenland ice sheet. The 79NG is one of the few Greenland glaciers with a floating ice tongue, and is strongly influenced by warm Atlantic Water originating from Fram Strait and carried towards it through a trough system on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf.Considering the decrease in thickness of the 79NG and also of the neighboring Zachariae Isstrøm (ZI), we aim to understand the processes that potentially lead to the decay of these glaciers. As a first step we present here an ocean-sea ice simulation which explicitly resolves the cavities of the 79NG and ZI glaciers, applying the Finite-Element Sea ice-Ocean Model (FESOM). We take advantage of the multi-resolution capability of FESOM and locally increase mesh resolution in the vicinity of the 79NG to 700 m. The Northeast Greenland continental shelf is resolved with 3 km, and the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas with 4.5 km. The simulation is conducted for the time period 1980 to 2018, using JRA-55 atmospheric reanalysis. Solid and liquid runoff from Greenland is taken from the Bamber et al. 2018 dataset. The flow of warm Atlantic water into the glacier and outflow of meltwater is compared to observational data from measurement campaigns. We further use current and hydrographic data from moorings deployed in Norske Trough to assess the model performance in carrying warm water towards the glacier. This simulation spanning several decades allows us to investigate recent changes in basal melt rates induced by oceanic processes, in particular warm Atlantic Water transport towards the glacier.

Uptake and storage of heat by the ocean plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate system. In the last 50 years, the ocean has absorbed over 90% of the additional energy accumulating in the Earth system due to radiative imbalance. However, our knowledge about ocean heat uptake (OHU), transport and storage is strongly constrained by the sparse observational record with large uncertainties. In this study, we conduct a suite of historical 1972–2017 hindcast simulations using a global ocean-sea ice model that are specifically designed to account for a cold start climate and model drift. The hindcast simulations are initialised from an equilibrated control simulation that uses repeat decade forcing over the period 1962-1971. This repeat decade forcing approach is a compromise between an early unobserved period (where our confidence in the forcing is low) and later periods (which would result in a shorter experiment period and a smaller fraction of the total OHU). The simulations are aimed at giving a good estimate of the trajectory of OHU in the tropics, the extratropics and individual ocean basins in recent decades. Many modelling studies that look at recent OHU rates so far use a simpler approach for the forcing. For example, they use repeating cycles of 1950-2010 Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiment (CORE) forcing that is consistent with the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project 2 (OMIP-2). However, this approach cannot account for model drift. The new simulations here highlight the dominant role of the extratropics, and in particular the Southern Ocean in OHU. In contrast, little heat is absorbed in the tropics and simulations forced with only tropical trends in atmospheric forcing show only weak global ocean heat content trends. Almost 50% of the heat taken up from the atmosphere in the Southern Ocean is transported into the Atlantic Ocean. Two-thirds of this Southern Ocean-sourced heat is then subsequently lost to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic but nevertheless this basin gains heat overall. Our results help to estimate the large-scale cycling of anthropogenic heat within the ocean today and have implications for heat content trends under a changing climate.

The basal melt rate of Antarctica's ice shelves is largely controlled by heat delivered from the Southern Ocean to the Antarctic continental shelf. The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) is an almost circumpolar feature that encircles Antarctica along the continental shelf break in an anti-clockwise direction. Because the circulation is to first order oriented along the topographic slope, it inhibits exchange of water masses between the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic continental shelf and thereby impacts cross-slope heat supply. Direct observations of the ASC system are sparse, but indicate a highly variable flow field both in time and space. Given the importance of the circulation near the shelf break for cross-shelf exchange of heat, it is timely to further improve our knowledge of the ASC system. This study makes use of the global ocean-sea ice model ACCESS-OM2-01 with a 1/10 degree horizontal resolution and describes the spatial and temporal variability of the velocity field. We categorise the modelled ASC into three different regimes, similar to previous works for the associated Antarctic Slope Front: (i) A surface-intensified current found predominantly in East Antarctica, (ii) a bottom-intensified current found downstream of the dense shelf water formation sites in the Ross, Weddell, and Prydz Bay Seas, and (iii) a reversed current found in West Antarctica where the eastward flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current impinges onto the continental shelf break. We find that the temporal variability of the Antarctic Slope Current varies between the regimes. In the bottom-intensified regions, the variability is set by the timing of the dense shelf water overflows, whereas the surface-intensified flow responds to the sub-monthly variability in the wind field.

Sea ice inhibits the development of wind‐generated surface gravity waves which are the dominant factor in upper ocean mixing and air‐sea fluxes. In turn, sea ice properties are modified by wave action. Understanding the interaction of ice and waves is important for characterizing both air‐sea interactions and sea ice dynamics. Current leading theory attributes wave attenuation primarily to scattering by ice floes. Here we use new in situ wave measurements to show that attenuation is dominated by dissipation with negligible effect by scattering. Time series of wave height in ice exhibit an ``on/off" behavior that is consistent with switching between two states of sea ice; a relatively unbroken state associated with strong damping (off), possibly caused by ice flexure, and very weak attenuation (on) across sea ice that has been broken up by wave action. Plain Language Summary Waves created by wind at the ocean surface are strongly attenuated when they travel across ice‐covered regions. Until now, this effect was thought to be the result of waves reflection off pieces of ice. Using new measurements of wave directions, we show that waves do not come for a broad range of directions, and scattering must be weak. Instead we find that attenuation is highly variable and related to the size of ice floes. We hypothesize that attenuation may be caused by cyclic deformation of the ice. When the waves are large enough to break the ice up, this deformation stops and the attenuation is much less. This finding is important for forecasting waves in ice‐infested waters as well as predicting seasonal sea ice extent.

The ice arches that ring the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago have historically blocked the inflow of Arctic Ocean sea ice for the majority of the year. However, annual average air temperature in northern Canada has increased by more than 2°C over the past 65+ years and a warmer climate is expected to contribute to the deterioration of these ice arches, which in turn has implications for the overall loss of Arctic Ocean sea ice. We investigated the effect of warming on the Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago using a 22-year record (1997-2018) of ice exchange derived from RADARSAT-1 and RADARSAT-2 imagery. Results indicated that there has been a significant increase in the amount of Arctic Ocean sea ice (103 km2/year) entering the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the period of 1997-2018. The increased Arctic Ocean ice area flux was associated with reduced ice arch duration but also with faster (thinner) moving ice and more southern latitude open water leeway as a result of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago’s long-term transition to a younger and thinner ice regime. Remarkably, in 2016, the Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (161x103 km2) was 7 times greater than the 1997-2018 average (23x103 km2) and almost double the 2007 ice area flux into Nares Strait (87x103 km2). Indeed, Nares Strait is known to be an important pathway for Arctic Ocean ice loss however, the results of this study suggest that with continued warming, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago may also become a large contributor to Arctic Ocean ice loss.

The METROMS is a coupled ocean and sea ice model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. It was employed for seasonal forecast of the September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) in 2019 in the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), using a regional configuration of grid resolution 20km for the Arctic, the so-called Arctic-20km configuration. In the present study, we investigate the impact of model initialization and sea ice data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the September Arctic SIE. The ERA5 atmospheric forcing is used to driver the model. The preliminary results indicate that model initialization plays a very important role in the seasonal prediction of September Arctic SIE. Experiments using different model initializations from climate monthly mean (CMM) and actual monthly mean (AMM) indicate that the AMM generally has a much higher prediction skill. The prediction skill also increases with decreasing prediction time. With a reasonable model initialization, SIC assimilation can significantly improve the prediction skill, particularly within two months. On the contrary, SIT assimilation tends to provide relatively small contribution to the September SIE prediction when model is reasonably initialized, due mostly to the fact that no data is available in the summer period.

The Southern Ocean (SO) played a prominent role in the exchange of carbon between ocean and atmosphere on glacial timescales through its regulation of deep ocean ventilation. Previous studies indicated that SO sea ice could dynamically link several processes of carbon sequestration, but these studies relied on models with simplified ocean and sea ice dynamics or snapshot simulations with general circulation models. Here we use a transient run of the LOVECLIM intermediate complexity climate model, covering the past eight glacial cycles, to investigate the orbital-scale dynamics of deep ocean ventilation changes due to SO sea ice. Cold climates increase sea ice cover, sea-ice export, and Antarctic Bottom Water formation, which are accompanied by increased SO upwelling, stronger poleward export of Circumpolar Deep Water, and a reduction of the atmospheric exposure time of surface waters by a factor of ten. Moreover, increased brine formation around Antarctica enhances deep ocean stratification, which could act to decrease vertical mixing by a factor of four compared to the current climate. The impact of the two mechanisms on carbon sequestration was then tested within a steady-state carbon cycle. The two mechanisms combined can reduce atmospheric carbon by 40 ppm, of which approximately 30 ppm is due to ocean stratification. Moreover, ocean stratification from increased SO sea ice production acts early within glacial cycles to amplify the carbon cycle response.

We introduce ACCESS-OM2, a new version of the ocean–sea ice model of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. ACCESS-OM2 is driven by a prescribed atmosphere (JRA55-do) but has been designed to form the ocean–sea ice component of the fully coupled (atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice) ACCESS-CM2 model. Importantly, the model is available at three different horizontal resolutions: a coarse resolution (nominally 1∘ horizontal grid spacing), an eddy-permitting resolution (nominally 0.25∘), and an eddy-rich resolution (0.1∘ with 75 vertical levels); the eddy-rich model is designed to be incorporated into the Bluelink operational ocean prediction and reanalysis system. The different resolutions have been developed simultaneously, both to allow for testing at lower resolutions and to permit comparison across resolutions. In this paper, the model is introduced and the individual components are documented. The model performance is evaluated across the three different resolutions, highlighting the relative advantages and disadvantages of running ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution. We find that higher resolution is an advantage in resolving flow through small straits, the structure of western boundary currents, and the abyssal overturning cell but that there is scope for improvements in sub-grid-scale parameterizations at the highest resolution.

The timing, structure, and landscape change during the Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation remains unresolved. In this article, we provide a geomorphic, stratigraphic, and geochronological deglacial record of Río Cisnes Glacier at 44°S and also from the nearby Río Ñirehuao and Río El Toqui valleys (45°S) in Chilean Patagonia. Our 14C, 10Be, and optically stimulated luminescence data indicate that after the last glacial maximum, Río Cisnes Glacier experienced ~100 km deglaciation between >19.0 and 12.3 ka, accompanied by the formation of large glacial paleolakes. Deglaciation was interrupted by several ice readvances, and by 16.9±0.3 ka, Río Cisnes Glacier extended only ~40% of its full glacial extent. The deglaciation of Río Cisnes Glacier and other sensitive Patagonian glaciers occurred at least 1 ka earlier than the ca. 17.8 ka normally assumed for the local termination, coincident with West Antarctic isotope records. This early deglaciation can be linked to an orbital forcing–driven decline of Southern Ocean sea ice associated with a distinct atmospheric warming that is apparent for West Antarctica through Patagonia.

Satellite-derived Antarctic sea ice extent has displayed a slight upward since 1979, but with strong temporal and regional variability—the drivers of which are poorly understood. Here, we conduct numerical experiments with a circum-Antarctic ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model driven by realistic atmospheric surface boundary conditions to examine the factors responsible for the temporal and spatial patterns in observed Antarctic sea ice variability. The model successfully reproduces observed seasonal and interannual variability in total sea ice extent and the temporal/spatial patterns of sea ice concentration and seasonality (days of advance and retreat and actual ice days) for 1979–2014. Sensitivity experiments are performed, in which the interannual variability in wind stress or thermodynamic surface forcing is ignored, to delineate their contributions to Antarctic sea ice fields. The results demonstrate that: (1) thermodynamic forcing plays a key role in driving interannual variability in sea ice extent and seasonality in most Antarctic sectors; (2) only in the Ross Sea the wind stress does become the main driver of sea ice extent variability; (3) thermodynamic forcing largely regulates interannual variability in the timing of sea ice advance, while wind stress largely controls the timing of the sea ice retreat; and (4) although both wind stress and thermodynamic forcing contribute to variability in total sea ice volume, the wind stress plays a dominant role in regulating sea ice volume variability in the near-coastal zone.

The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region (NEMO-Nordic). The setup includes a new depth-based fast-ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. We show that NEMO-Nordic is well suited for simulating the mean sea-ice extent, concentration, and thickness as compared to the best available observational data set. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations, but the 1961–2006 trend is underestimated. Capturing the correct ice thickness distribution is more challenging. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations.

Because summer rainfall in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley has remarkable interannual and decadal variability and because the precursors that modulate the interannual rainfall change with the decadal variation of the background state, a new model that employs a novel statistical idea is needed to yield an accurate prediction. In this study, the interannual rainfall model (IAM) and the decadal rainfall model (DM) were constructed. Moving updating of the IAM with the latest data within an optimal length of training period (20 yr) can partially offset the effect of decadal change of precursors in IAM. To predict the interannual rainfall of 2001–13 for validation, 13 regression models were fitted with precursors that change every 4–5 yr, from the preceding winter North Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole to the Mascarene high, followed by the East Asia sea level pressure anomaly (SLPA) dipole and the preceding autumn North Pacific SSTA dipole. The moving updated model demonstrated high skill in predicting interannual rainfall, with a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a hit rate of 76.9%. The DM was linked to the April SLPA in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and it maintained good performance in the testing period, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 7.7%. The statistical model exhibited superior capability even when compared with the best forecast by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), initiated in early June, as indicated by increased correlation coefficient from 0.62 to 0.75 and reduced RMSE from 12.3% to 10.7%.

The average predictability time (APT) method is used to identify the most predictable components of decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the Southern Ocean (SO) in a 4000-yr unforced control run of the GFDL CM2.1 model. The most predictable component shows significant predictive skill for periods as long as 20 years. The physical pattern of this variability has a uniform sign of SST anomalies over the SO, with maximum values over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen–Weddell Seas. Spectral analysis of the associated APT time series shows a broad peak on time scales of 70–120 years. This most predictable pattern is closely related to the mature phase of a mode of internal variability in the SO that is associated with fluctuations of deep ocean convection. The second most predictable component of SO SST is characterized by a dipole structure, with SST anomalies of one sign over the Weddell Sea and SST anomalies of the opposite sign over the Amundsen–Bellingshausen Seas. This component has significant predictive skill for periods as long as 6 years. This dipole mode is associated with a transition between phases of the dominant pattern of SO internal variability. The long time scales associated with variations in SO deep convection provide the source of the predictive skill of SO SST on decadal scales. These analyses suggest that if the SO deep convection in a numerical forecast model could be adequately initialized, the future evolution of SO SST and its associated climate impacts are potentially predictable.

Through examining the complex relationship of conquest, Catholicism, and enslavement that defined Iberian expansion into the Atlantic world, this article shows how slavery and the slave trade stood...

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

The achievement of functional equivalence in the translation of the dialogues of literary texts is discussed. The main objective of the study is to identify linguistic means of realization of the principle of functional equivalence in the translation of dialogues from Italian into Russian. To achieve the objective the comparative analysis is made of some fragments of the works of Italian writer A. Baricco “Ocean Sea”, “Silk” and their translations into Russian language. The analysis identifies linguistic transformations, enabling to make in text of the translation the communicative effect created by the original. Special attention is paid to the characteristic function of the dialogue, consists in the fact that this kind of speech communication is actively involved in creating the characters. The author also dwells on the stylistic features of dialogues that reflect the main features of spoken language. The theoretical part of the work defines the concepts of functional equivalence within the framework of current research on translation, in this connection, the importance of retaining in the text the translation of a communicative effect which has been modeled by the author in the text source is underlined. It is concluded about how to recreate the communicative effect of a text in translation from Italian to Russian language. The relevance of the study is to describe lexical and grammatical means of realization of the principle of functional equivalence, which can be applied in translational work.

Summer monsoon rainfall (SMR) and it’s ENSO linkages over Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is investigated assuming that local effects of complex Himalayan terrain can substantially attenuate the coupling effect of SMR and ENSO. Hence, relationships between the SMR of northwestern (NWH) and eastern Himalayan (EH) region and nino indices (Nino 3.0 and Nino 3.4 indicating tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature) are investigated using six cases of El-Nino (EN), La-Nina (LN) and normal (NN) events during 1981–2005. Particular objectives of this study are: (i) to compare impact of three nino phases (i.e. EN, LN and NN) on the monthly average rainfall of NWH and EH region and (ii) to assess relationships between dominant modes of two nino phases (i.e. EN and LN) and rainfall of NWH and EH region. The relationships are further investigated with respect to latitudinal transacts representing changes in the terrain characteristics. Results of this study indicate existence of an inverse relationship between monthly rainfall and nino indices for NWH and EH region. Over the NWH region, the area averaged monthly rainfall index is found to have statistically significant (p-value

Organic geochemical and micropaleontological analyses of surface sediments collected in the southern Drake Passage and the Bransfield Strait, Western Antarctic Peninsula, enable a proxy-based reconstruction of recent sea ice conditions in this climate-sensitive area. We study the distribution of the sea ice biomarker IPSO25, and biomarkers of open marine environments such as more unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid alkenes and phytosterols. Comparison of the sedimentary distribution of these biomarker lipids with sea ice data obtained from satellite observations and diatom-based sea ice estimates provide for an evaluation of the suitability of these biomarkers to reflect recent sea surface conditions. The distribution of IPSO25 supports earlier suggestions that the source diatom seems to be common in near-coastal environments characterized by annually recurring sea ice cover, while the distribution of the other biomarkers is highly variable. Offsets between sea ice estimates deduced from the abundance of biomarkers and satellite-based sea ice data are attributed to the different time intervals recorded within the sediments and the instrumental records from the study area, which experienced rapid environmental changes during the past 100 years. To distinguish areas characterized by permanently ice-free conditions, seasonal sea ice cover and extended sea ice cover, we apply the concept of the PIP25 index from the Arctic Ocean to our data and introduce the term PIPSO25 as a potential sea ice proxy. While the trends in PIPSO25 are generally consistent with satellite sea ice data and winter sea ice concentrations in the study area estimated by diatom transfer functions, more studies on the environmental significance of IPSO25 as a Southern Ocean sea ice proxy are needed before this biomarker can be applied for semi-quantitative sea ice reconstructions.