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The interpretation of vaccine efficacy estimands is subtle, even in randomized trials designed to quantify immunological effects of vaccination. In this article, we introduce terminology to distinguish between different vaccine efficacy estimands and clarify their interpretations. This allows us to explicitly consider immunological and behavioural effects of vaccination, and establish that policy-relevant estimands can differ substantially from those commonly reported in vaccine trials. We further show that a conventional vaccine trial allows identification and estimation of different vaccine estimands under plausible conditions, if one additional post-treatment variable is measured. Specifically, we utilize a ``belief variable'' that indicates the treatment an individual believed they had received. The belief variable is similar to ``blinding assessment'' variables that are occasionally collected in placebo-controlled trials in other fields. We illustrate the relations between the different estimands, and their practical relevance, in numerical examples based on an influenza vaccine trial.

The rapid advancement and widespread adoption of machine learning-driven technologies have underscored the practical and ethical need for creating interpretable artificial intelligence systems. Feature importance, a method that assigns scores to the contribution of individual features on prediction outcomes, seeks to bridge this gap as a tool for enhancing human comprehension of these systems. Feature importance serves as an explanation of predictions in diverse contexts, whether by providing a global interpretation of a phenomenon across the entire dataset or by offering a localized explanation for the outcome of a specific data point. Furthermore, feature importance is being used both for explaining models and for identifying plausible causal relations in the data, independently from the model. However, it is worth noting that these various contexts have traditionally been explored in isolation, with limited theoretical foundations. This paper presents an axiomatic framework designed to establish coherent relationships among the different contexts of feature importance scores. Notably, our work unveils a surprising conclusion: when we combine the proposed properties with those previously outlined in the literature, we demonstrate the existence of an inconsistency. This inconsistency highlights that certain essential properties of feature importance scores cannot coexist harmoniously within a single framework.

Testing individuals for the presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is crucial for curtailing transmission chains. Moreover, rapidly testing many potentially infected individuals is often a limiting factor in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. Hence, pooling strategies, wherein individuals are grouped and tested simultaneously, are employed. We present a novel pooling strategy that implements D-Optimal Pooling Experimental design (DOPE). DOPE defines optimal pooled tests as those maximizing the mutual information between data and infection states. We estimate said mutual information via Monte-Carlo sampling and employ a discrete optimization heuristic for maximizing it. DOPE outperforms common pooling strategies both in terms of lower error rates and fewer tests utilized. DOPE holds several additional advantages: it provides posterior distributions of the probability of infection, rather than only binary classification outcomes; it naturally incorporates prior information of infection probabilities and test error rates; and finally, it can be easily extended to include other, newly discovered information regarding COVID-19. Hence, we believe that implementation of Bayesian D-optimal experimental design holds a great promise for the efforts of combating COVID-19 and other future pandemics., Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures