Search

Pervasive forest mortality is expected to increase in future decades as a result of increasing temperatures. Climate-induced forest dieback can have consequences on ecosystem services, potentially mediated by changes in forest structure and understory community composition that emerge in response to tree death. Although many dieback events around the world have been documented in recent years, yellowcedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis) decline provides an opportunity to study vegetation changes occurring over the past century. Current research identifies climate-related reductions in snow cover as a key driver of this species dieback. To examine the process of forest development post-dieback, we conducted vegetation surveys at 50 plots along the outer coast of southeast Alaska across a chronosequence of mortality. Our main study objectives were to examine changes in seedling and sapling abundance, and community structure of conifer species in the overstory; effects of yellow-cedar mortality on plant diversity and community composition of functional groups in the understory; and volume of key forage species for Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis) managed throughout the region. The probability of yellow-cedar sapling occurrence was reduced across the chronosequence. Yellow-cedar seedling and sapling abundance also decreased. We observed a turnover from yellow-cedar to western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) dominated forests. Functional plant diversity increased and the community composition of the understory changed across the chronosequence. Bryophytes became less abundant and grasses more abundant in the early stages of stand development, and shrubs increased in relative abundance in latter stages. Our results demonstrate that yellow-cedar is significantly less likely to regenerate in forests affected by widespread mortality, and a species dieback can dynamically rearrange the plant community over time. These findings emphasize the importance of considering long-term temporal dynamics when assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and adapting forest management to a changing climate. Copyright:

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<−2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]