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The recent collapse of several microfinance sectors as well as the current COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a growing concern about the risk of multiple borrowing among microcredit clients in developing countries. Researchers argue that availability of multiple sources of credit has tempted clients to take multiple loans simultaneously, and subsequently default on loans. However, there is little empirical evidence on the impact of multiple borrowing on welfare. Using a spatial fuzzy regression discontinuity design, in this paper I empirically study the impact of an additional source of credit on outstanding and delinquent debt and monthly income by comparing individuals with access to two sources of credit with individuals with access to a single source of credit. In addition, I find that access to an additional source of credit leads to a reduction in a borrower's outstanding debt by USD 44.75 and a decline in number of outstanding loans by 0.07. However, an additional source of credit has no effect on delinquent debt or monthly income of borrowers. In addition, I provide evidence of no effect of outstanding debt on psychosocial wellbeing of borrowers in terms of their happiness, life satisfaction, financial satisfaction and health satisfaction.

This paper presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. These economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008-09, which was then used for stimulus. This reflects a more general trend over the past three decades, where availability of fiscal space has been associated with increasingly countercyclical (or less procyclical) fiscal policy. However, fiscal space has shrunk since the Great Recession and has not returned to pre-crisis levels. Emerging and developing economies face downside risks to growth and prospects of rising financing costs. In the event that these cause a sharp cyclical slowdown, policy makers may need to employ fiscal policy as a possible tool for stimulus. An important prerequisite for fiscal policy to be effective is that these economies have the necessary fiscal space to employ countercyclical policies. Over the medium-term, credible and well-designed institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and medium-term expenditure frameworks, can help build fiscal space and strengthen policy outcomes.

The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) topics to encourage discussion and debate. This paper explores two new financing mechanisms that multilateral and bilateral development agencies could consider deploying to address problems of debt sustainability in small states. In this paper the authors provide an initial assessment of these proposals, informed by analysis of small state indebtedness and recent debt dynamics. Proposed financing instruments are predicated on assumptions that small states face high levels of indebtedness, and that reducing debt levels while increasing climate resilience could sustainably reduce such vulnerabilities. The authors find that levels of indebtedness vary widely across small states. Analysis of small state debt dynamics shows that small state debt accumulation has been driven by large primary and current account deficits and slow economic growth. Debt reduction from new mechanisms can only be expected to be sustainable, therefore, if countries simultaneously address the macroeconomic imbalances driving debt accumulation. The authors demonstrate that, while exposure to natural disasters is likely to have exacerbated economic management challenges in some small states, such exposures are unlikely to be the only important cause of indebtedness. The authors conclude that proposed new financing instruments can potentially help reduce small state debt burdens and gain fiscal space for climate adaptation but will not present a sustainable solution to problems of small state debt risks unless they involve macroeconomic and structural reforms to address the underlying imbalances driving rapid debt accumulation.

This study investigates the existence of political rents in bank lending, using a comprehensive loan-level data set of the universe of commercial loans in Mexico from 2003 to 2012. Identification relies on changes in the state of origin of a senate committee chairman as a source of exogenous variation in firms' political relationship. The study finds that banks offer favorable loan terms to politically connected firms with larger loan quantities, lower loan spreads, longer maturities, and lower collateral requirements. Furthermore, political loans exhibit higher default rates. To isolate the bank supply channel, a rich set of fixed-effects is included with various specifications. The favorable lending increases with the strength of a firm's political connection, varies gradually along the political cycle, and is mainly offered by large and domestic banks. Consistent with the quid pro quo hypothesis, the study finds that banks that extend political loans receive significantly more government borrowings with better credit quality. The study also shows that the greater credit supply due to political connection leads to a large and significant increase in firm-level employment and assets. The study provides estimates of the total social cost of political lending and net revenue for banks that are engaged in rent provision activity. Finally, a series of robustness tests are performed to rule out alternative mechanisms and explanations.

The power sector of Armenia achieved remarkable results through first generation policy, legal, regulatory, and institutional reforms implemented from 1991-2003, the first decade of independence. The sector achieved financial sustainability with tariffs that assured recovery of reasonable expenses and collections that reached virtually 100 percent of sales. The implicit and explicit subsidies to the power sector were eliminated and the largest sector companies were among the top taxpayers in the country. More than 70 percent of power sector assets were denationalized (privatized or transferred to Russian ownership in debt-to-asset swaps). However, in 2010 these achievements started to reverse and gradually worsened during the past several years. Today, the large state-owned sector power companies, as well as the privately-owned Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) have accumulated large amount of expensive commercial debts and are on the verge of bankruptcy.

This paper studies the role of morality in the decision to repay debts. Using a field experiment with a large Islamic bank in Indonesia, the paper finds that moral appeals strongly increase credit card repayments. In this setting, all of the banks late-paying credit card customers receive a basic reminder to repay their debt one day after they miss the payment due date. In addition, two days before the end of a ten-day grace period, clients in a treatment group also receive a text message that cites an Islamic religious text and states that “non-repayment of debts by someone who is able to repay is an injustice.” This message increases the share of customers meeting their minimum payments by nearly 20 percent. By contrast, sending either a simple reminder or an Islamic quote that is unrelated to debt repayment has no effect on the share of customers making the minimum payment. Clients also respond more strongly to this moral appeal than to substantial financial incentives: receiving the religious message increases repayments by more than offering a cash rebate equivalent to 50 percent of the minimum repayment. Finally, the paper finds that removing religious aspects from the quote does not change its effectiveness, suggesting that the moral appeal of the message does not necessarily rely on its religious connotation.

This snapshot provides an overview of financial inclusion trends and challenges in Tunisia. It follows the recent expiration of the Coordinated Vision for the Development of Microfinance in Tunisia 2011-2014, national strategy published in 2011.

Chinas economic growth continues to moderate, in 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 7.4 percent, within the governments indicative growth target of about 7.5 percent for the year, but sharply slower than the 10 percent annual growth rate china averaged for three consecutive decades. An orderly correction in real estate - reflecting policy efforts to reduce supply mismatches and tighten nonbank credit - continues to weigh on economic activity. Ongoing adjustments in real estate, a buildup of excess capacity, and decelerating export growth are affecting industrial activity. In contrast growth in services remained robust as composition of growth continues to improve.

This Technical Note was prepared in the context of a joint World Bank-IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina during October-November 2014. Bosnia’s capital markets are currently small, but they have the potential to play a more important role in the country’s future.