1. Model-based assessment of Chikungunya and O'nyong-nyong virus circulation in Mali in a serological cross-reactivity context.
- Author
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Hozé N, Diarra I, Sangaré AK, Pastorino B, Pezzi L, Kouriba B, Sagara I, Dabo A, Djimdé A, Thera MA, Doumbo OK, de Lamballerie X, and Cauchemez S
- Subjects
- Chikungunya Fever diagnosis, Chikungunya Fever epidemiology, Chikungunya virus physiology, Humans, Mali epidemiology, Martinique epidemiology, O'nyong-nyong Virus physiology, Reproducibility of Results, Sensitivity and Specificity, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Algorithms, Chikungunya Fever immunology, Chikungunya virus immunology, Cross Reactions immunology, Models, Statistical, O'nyong-nyong Virus immunology
- Abstract
Serological surveys are essential to quantify immunity in a population but serological cross-reactivity often impairs estimates of the seroprevalence. Here, we show that modeling helps addressing this key challenge by considering the important cross-reactivity between Chikungunya (CHIKV) and O'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) as a case study. We develop a statistical model to assess the epidemiology of these viruses in Mali. We additionally calibrate the model with paired virus neutralization titers in the French West Indies, a region with known CHIKV circulation but no ONNV. In Mali, the model estimate of ONNV and CHIKV prevalence is 30% and 13%, respectively, versus 27% and 2% in non-adjusted estimates. While a CHIKV infection induces an ONNV response in 80% of cases, an ONNV infection leads to a cross-reactive CHIKV response in only 22% of cases. Our study shows the importance of conducting serological assays on multiple cross-reactive pathogens to estimate levels of virus circulation., (© 2021. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2021
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