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Across decades of contemporary discussion on sustainable development, a core concern has been the balance between economic, social, and environmental dimensions. A critical strand of the debate focuses on economic growth versus economic degrowth and, more specifically, on whether economic growth can be sustainable in environmental terms and whether degrowth can be sustainable in social terms. This conceptual and theoretical article used the Sustainability Window, or "SuWi"' method, to theoretically determine the sustainable window of economies. The window is defined as the upper and lower bounds of future change in GDP that could be deemed in line with achieving both environmental and social sustainability. The conceptual analysis considers all theoretically possible scenario paths for development by combining the outcome paths of economic, environmental, and social dimensions with the environmental and social productivities of GDP. Through SuWi analysis, it is found that only four of the logically possible scenario paths could be considered theoretically "sustainable"—two cases involving economic growth and two of degrowth. In the cases of each of the four paths, sustainability only emerges where they adhere to strict conditions in terms of environmental and social outcomes, as well as related productivities. The SuWi approach and its applied analytical formulas have many potential uses in 21st-century policymaking for sustainability, including supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It provides a unique and comprehensive theoretical and analytical framework that enables the categorisation of the complex challenges of sustainability and quantitative analysis of policy choices. Such foresight analysis could greatly assist in providing an evidence base for future development planning and policy formulation, ex ante of locking in a pathway. Further implementation in applied studies that explore a comprehensive indicator set, robust and consistent across all relevant dimensions, offers a promising opportunity to advance empirical analysis of key questions in sustainable development globally at a critical juncture in human history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. Design/methodology/approach: This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Findings: Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. Research limitations/implications: To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. Practical implications: While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Social implications: Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subnational level embodied by regions and cities presents unique challenges for energy policy. Large metropolitan areas tend to be consumers rather than producers of energy, with two of the most critical sectors being transport and residential. The Madrid region in Spain – one of Europe's most significant urban areas – represents such a phenomenon. The Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) modelling approach has been applied to Madrid for long-term sustainable energy planning. This paper presents the model, a business-as-usual projection and two alternate scenarios to 2050. The results show that by applying measures to decarbonize the transport and residential sectors, significant reductions in energy demand are possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an analysis of Cambodian socio‐economic and environmental development. The analysis applies the Sustainable Society Index—database and uses Sustainability Window analyses linked to the green growth strategy in Cambodia. The novel analyses provide criteria for weak and strong sustainability and are further developed to evaluate the green growth productivity gap. We have carried out empirical analyses using indicators of the different dimensions of sustainability—economic, social, and environmental. The Sustainability Window defines the minimum economic development for social sustainability and the maximum economic development for environmental criterion for sustainability. This study demonstrates methodological usefulness of the Sustainability Window analysis in the fields of development studies and green growth. The methodological novelty of this study is to use Sustainability Window approach and to provide a novel empirical testbed for strong and weak sustainability analyses as well as for the analysis of the green growth resource use productivity gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]