1. The Global Open Source Severity of Illness Score (GOSSIS)
- Author
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Raffa, Jesse D., Johnson, Alistair E. W., O’Brien, Zach, Pollard, Tom J., Mark, Roger G., Celi, Leo A., Pilcher, David, and Badawi, Omar
- Subjects
Adult ,Intensive Care Units ,Adolescent ,Critical Care ,Australia ,Humans ,Hospital Mortality ,Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine ,Severity of Illness Index ,Article ,APACHE - Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop and demonstrate the feasibility of a Global Open Source Severity of Illness Score (GOSSIS)-1 for critical care patients, which generalizes across healthcare systems and countries. DESIGN: A merger of several critical care multicenter cohorts derived from registry and electronic health record data. Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets, using each set exclusively for development and evaluation, respectively. Missing data were imputed when not available. SETTING/PATIENTS: Two large multicenter datasets from Australia and New Zealand (Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database [ANZICS-APD]) and the United States (eICU Collaborative Research Database [eICU-CRD]) representing 249,229 and 131,051 patients, respectively. ANZICS-APD and eICU-CRD contributed data from 162 and 204 hospitals, respectively. The cohort included all ICU admissions discharged in 2014–2015, excluding patients less than 16 years old, admissions less than 6 hours, and those with a previous ICU stay. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: GOSSIS-1 uses data collected during the ICU stay’s first 24 hours, including extrema values for vital signs and laboratory results, admission diagnosis, the Glasgow Coma Scale, chronic comorbidities, and admission/demographic variables. The datasets showed significant variation in admission-related variables, case-mix, and average physiologic state. Despite this heterogeneity, test set discrimination of GOSSIS-1 was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.918; 95% CI, 0.915–0.921) and calibration was excellent (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 0.986; 95% CI, 0.966–1.005; Brier score, 0.050). Performance was held within ANZICS-APD (AUROC, 0.925; SMR, 0.982; Brier score, 0.047) and eICU-CRD (AUROC, 0.904; SMR, 0.992; Brier score, 0.055). Compared with GOSSIS-1, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-IIIj (ANZICS-APD) and APACHE-IVa (eICU-CRD), had worse discrimination with AUROCs of 0.904 and 0.869, and poorer calibration with SMRs of 0.594 and 0.770, and Brier scores of 0.059 and 0.063, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: GOSSIS-1 is a modern, free, open-source inhospital mortality prediction algorithm for critical care patients, achieving excellent discrimination and calibration across three countries.
- Published
- 2023