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Objective: To determine whether improved prediction of AIDS-free survival following HIV-1 seroconversion is achieved by measuring HIV-1 2-LTR episomal DNA (2-LTR) circles and T cell receptor rearrangement excision circles (TREC), reflecting HIV replication and lymphocyte emigration from the thymus, respectively. Design: Subanalysis of a cohort of 154 patients with hemophilia who became HIV positive between 1978 and 1985 and were followed prospectively. Methods: Relative hazards (RH) of AIDS, in the absence of highly effective anti-HIV therapy, were estimated for age, HIV-1 viral load, CD4 lymphocyte count and levels of HIV-1 2-LTR circles and TREC [per 106 peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC)]. Results: TREC correlated significantly with CD4 cell counts (r = 0.30) and age (r = -0.60). 2-LTR circles correlated significantly with HIV-1 viral load (r = 0.35). If viral load, CD4 lymphocytes and age were included in a proportional hazards model, the risk of AIDS during a median of 11.6 years of follow-up was increased significantly with fewer TREC (adjusted RH, 2.0 per log10 copies/106 PBMC) and more 2-LTR circles (RH, 1.7 per log10 copies/106 PBMC). AIDS prediction with TREC and 2-LTR circles held for most subgroups defined by median viral load, CD4 lymphocytes and age. Conclusions: PBMC that have high levels of HIV-1 replication and low levels of recent thymic emigrants are associated with a substantially increased risk of AIDS. It is not known if measurement of either TREC or 2-LTR circles will complement HIV-1 viral load as an estimation of the risk of AIDS for patients who are receiving highly effective anti-HIV therapy. © 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. 15 2245 2250 Cited By :11

OBJECTIVE: Among perinatally infected children, the effects of certain alleles of the CCR5 and CCR2 genes on the rate of disease progression remain unclear. We addressed the effects of CCR5-delta32 and CCR2-64I in an international meta-analysis. METHODS: Genotype data were contributed from 10 studies with 1317 HIV-1-infected children (7263 person-years of follow-up). Time-to-event analyses were performed stratified by study and racial group. Endpoints included progression to clinical AIDS, death, and death after the diagnosis of clinical AIDS. The time-dependence of the genetic effects was specifically investigated. RESULTS: There was large heterogeneity in the observed rates of disease progression between different cohorts. For progression to clinical AIDS, both CCR5-delta32 and CCR2-64I showed overall non-significant trends for protection [hazard ratios 0.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.23; and 0.87, 95% CI 0.67-1.14, respectively]. However, analyses of survival showed statistically significant time-dependence. No deaths occurred among CCR5-delta32 carriers in the first 3 years of life, whereas there was no protective effect (hazard ratio 0.95; 95% CI 0.43-2.10) in later years (P=0.01 for the time-dependent model). For CCR2-64I, the hazard ratio for death was 0.69 (95% CI 0.39-1.21) in the first 6 years of life and 2.56 (95% CI 1.26-5.20) in subsequent years (P

Several studies have investigated whether heterozygosity for a 32-basepair deletion in the CC chemokine receptor 5 gene (CCR5-Delta32 ) affects susceptibility to perinatal HIV-1 infection, but results have been inconclusive. We performed a meta-analysis of published data from 11 studies of HIV-1 perinatally exposed children who were genotyped for the CCR5-Delta32 polymorphism. The crude overall HIV-1 infection rates, by simple data pooling, were 20% (one of five) amongCCR5-Delta32 homozygote children, 39% (131 of 335) among CCR5-Delta32 heterozygote children, and 40% (1408 of 3526) among wild-type CCR5 homozygote children. Compared with wild-type homozygotes, the random effects risk ratio for heterozygotes was 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92-1.17) among all children (N = 3861) and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.90-1.17) among those of European descent (n = 2890). Results were similar when adjusted for the available data on the CCR2-641 polymorphism (n = 1542). The meta-analysis clarifies that perinatal infection is not significantly altered by heterozygosity for CCR5-Delta32 in the child. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr

OBJECTIVE: To examine temporal variation in the effects of CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I chemokine receptor gene polymorphisms on HIV-1 disease progression. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of individual patient data from 10 cohorts of HIV-1 seroconverters from the United States, Europe, and Australia. METHODS: We studied HIV-1 seroconverters of European (n = 1635) or African (n = 215) ancestry who had been genotyped for CCR5-Delta32 and CCR2-64I. We used Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying coefficients to determine whether the genetic protection against AIDS (1987 case definition) and death varied with time since seroconversion. RESULTS: Protection against AIDS conferred by CCR5-Delta32 held constant at a 31% (RH 0.69, 95% CI 0.54, 0.88) reduction in risk over the course of HIV-1 infection, whereas protection against death held constant at a 39% reduction in risk (RH 0.61, 95% CI 0.45, 0.88). When the period from AIDS to death was isolated, the survival benefit of CCR5-Delta32 diminished 2 years after AIDS. Protection against AIDS conferred by CCR2-64I was greatest early in the disease course. Compared with individuals without CCR5-Delta32 or CCR2-64I, individuals with one or two copies of CCR2-64I had a 58% lower risk of AIDS during the first 4 years after seroconversion (RH 0.42, 95% CI 0.23, 0.76), a 19% lower risk during the subsequent 4 years (RH 0.81, 95% CI 0.59, 1.12), and no significant protection thereafter. CONCLUSION: The protection against AIDS provided by CCR5-Delta32 is continuous during the course of infection. In contrast, the protection provided by CCR2-64I is greatest early in the course of infection. AIDS

The authors summarize their experience in the conduct of meta-analysis of individual participants' data (MIPD) with time-to-event analyses in the field of genetic epidemiology. The MIPD offers many advantages compared with a meta-analysis of the published literature. These include standardization of case definitions, outcomes, and covariates; inclusion of updated information; the ability to fully test the assumptions of time-to-event models; better control of confounding; standardization of analyses of genetic loci that are in linkage disequilibrium; evaluation of alternative genetic models and multiple genes; consistent treatment of subpopulations; assessment of sampling bias; and the establishment of an international collaboration with the capability to prospectively update the meta-analyses and synthesize new information on multiple genetic loci and outcomes. The disadvantages of a MIPD compared with a meta-analysis of the published literature are that a much greater commitment of time and resources is required to collect primary data and to coordinate a large collaborative project. An MIPD may collect additional, unpublished data, but it is possible that not all published data may be contributed at the individual level. For questions that justify the required intensive effort, the MIPD method is a useful tool to help clarify the role of candidate genes in complex human diseases. Am J Epidemiol

Background: Studies relating certain chemokine and chemokine receptor gene alleles with the outcome of HIV-1 infection have yielded inconsistent results. Objective: To examine postulated associations of genetic alleles with HIV-1 disease progression. Design: Meta-analysis of individual-patient data. Setting: 19 prospective cohort studies and case-control studies from the United States, Europe, and Australia. Patients: Patients with HIV-1 infection who were of European or African descent. Measurements: Time to AIDS, death, and death after AIDS and HIV-1 RNA level at study entry or soon after seroconversion. Data were combined with fixed-effects and random-effects models. Results: Both the CCR5-Δ32 and CCR2-64I alleles were associated with a decreased risk for progression to AIDS (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.74 and 0.76, respectively P = 0.01 for both), a decreased risk for death (relative hazard among seroconverters, 0.64 and 0.74 P < 0.05 for both), and lower HIV-1 RNA levels after seroconversion (difference, -0.18 log10 copies/mL and -0.14 log10 copies/mL P < 0.05 for both). Having the CCR5-Δ32 or CCR2-64I allele had no clear protective effect on the risk for death after development of AIDS. The results were consistent between seroconverters and seroprevalent patients. In contrast, SDF-1 3′A homozygotes showed no decreased risk for AIDS (relative hazard for seroconverters and seroprevalent patients, 0.99 and 1.03, respectively), death (relative hazard, 0.97 and 1.00), or death after development of AIDS (relative hazard, 0.81 and 0.97 P < 0.5 for all). Conclusions: The CCR5-Δ32 and CCR2-64I alleles had a strong protective effect on progression of HIV-1 infection, but SDF-1 3′A homozygosity carried no such protection. 135 782 795 Cited By :238

BACKGROUND: Both the natural history of HIV infection and the response to antiretroviral therapy are heterogeneous. Polymorphisms in chemokine receptor genes modulate the natural history of HIV-1 infection. In comparison with subjects with other genotypes, the prognosis for HIV-1-infected CCR5-delta32 heterozygotes is more favorable and that for CCR5 promoter allele 59029A homozygotes is less favorable. METHODS: HIV-1-infected adults with a CD4+ lymphocyte count > or = 200 cells x 10(6)/l and a plasma HIV RNA level > or = 1000 copies/ml were treated with indinavir, zidovudine and lamivudine for 6 months. HIV RNA levels were measured at 4-week intervals. Genotyping for chemokine receptor gene polymorphisms (CCR5-delta32, CCR5 59029A/G, CCR2-641) was performed. We examined whether the time to first HIV RNA < 200 copies/ml, frequency of viral suppression failure (HIV RNA > or = 200 copies/ml between weeks 16 and 28 of therapy), or reduction from the pre-treatment HIV RNA level differed by genotype. RESULTS: Time to first HIV RNA < 200 copies/ml was not predicted by genotype. Among 272 Caucasian patients, viral suppression failure was more common among patients with the CCR5 +/+ inverted question mark CCR2+/+ inverted question mark CCR5-59029 A/A genotype (28%) than among all other subjects combined (relative risk, 2.0; P = 0.06). After 24 weeks of therapy, genotype groups differed in the reduction of the HIV RNA level from baseline (P = 0.02); patients with the CCR5 +/+ inverted question mark CCR2+/+ inverted question mark CCR5-59029 A/A genotype had a mean reduction of 2.12 log10 copies/ml compared to 2.64 log10 copies/ml among all other groups combined. CONCLUSION: Polymorphisms in chemokine receptor genes may explain some of the heterogeneity in sustaining viral suppression observed among patients receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. AIDS

OBJECTIVES: Expert panels have developed several guidelines for initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients with HIV infection. To evaluate these guidelines, we simulated their application in a cohort of HIV-infected patients established and followed before HAART was available, and determined how long such patients survived without disease progression in the absence of HAART. METHODS: Longitudinal data was used that had been collected from 1982 to 1995 on a prospective cohort of 133 homosexual men with known or closely approximated dates of HIV-1 seroconversion and negligible antiretroviral exposure. The main definition of disease progression was CD4 cell count < or = 300x10(6)/l or development of clinical AIDS diagnosis within 12 months. RESULTS: The mean number of years between the recommended initiation of therapy and when disease progression occurred in the absence of HAART were as follows: initiation of treatment at first visit, 4.81 years [median, 3.78 years; interquartile range (IQR), 1.85-6.59 years]; CD4 cell count 5000 copies/ml (at least 10000 copies/ml fresh plasma), 4.35 years (median, 3.22 years; IQR, 1.56-6.19 years); CD4 cells 20000 copies/ml (at least 40000 copies/ml fresh plasma), 3.61 years (median, 2.70 years; IQR, 1.40-5.11 years); and CD4 cells

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