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The light that technological change shines on human progress casts growing shadows. The unparalleled progress in the quality of life around the World since the Industrial Revolution has been achieved through the combustion of vast amounts of fossil fuels. The accumulation of the resulting CO2 in the atmosphere is changing the climates of the Earth, threatening to halt and undo the prosperity achieved thus far. To address this challenge, the main task is as well-known as difficult to complete: the decarbonization of the World’s economies. As an initial step in this direction, priority should be given to the decarbonization of electricity generation, the single largest emitter of fossil fuel CO2. Technological change emerges, in this front, as a crucial force to recruit for this effort, and policies as an essential tool to do so. However, despite climate and energy policies slowly growing in number and stringency, the target of a consistent and substantial decline of emissions remains elusive. The rise of entirely new socio-technical systems around renewable energy technologies has demonstrated the ability of policy to steer the innovation and diffusion of technology, but also the risks from tinkering with the rate of technological change without a firm grasp on it. This state of affairs accentuates the need for new and better policies that cannot only steer the direction but also manage the rate of technological change. This thesis aims at contributing to tackling this need by addressing the question of how to design energy policies for harnessing technological change. In order to address this question, this dissertation adopts an evolutionary economics perspective that draws on the literature on technology and innovation policy to explore the design of energy policies at the levels of the policy mix and policy instrument. Focusing on the socio-technical system of solar photovoltaics (PV), as a key technology for the decarbonization of power generation, and one that can shed light on what to expect from similarly essential technologies, the research in this thesis takes a look at the recent past searching for lessons for the near future. In particular, by diving into the experiences with policies for the diffusion of PV – mainly, feed-in tariff schemes – in Germany and other European countries during the past three decades, the papers in this dissertation reveal important new insights that hold major implications for future policies. The tool for uncovering such knowledge was, in all four instances, agent-based modelling, which enabled a rigorous simulation and quantitative evaluation of alternative policy designs, and a careful representation of the complexity and uncertainty surrounding the phenomena dealt with in the research question. The results from this thesis contribute to the literature in three main ways. First, developing an understanding not only of how to accelerate the rate of technological change but how to manage its speed. Second, by suggesting a shift of the focus for adaption from policy-makers to policy designs, this dissertation provides a stimulus into a new direction to the theory on evolutionary economics. Third, by demonstrating the suitability of quantitative analyses using agent-based modelling for investigating relevant policy questions, this dissertation provides a methodological contribution. Finally, numerous implications derive for policy-makers. Two of the most prominent ones are, on the one hand, the reiteration of the necessity of adapting policy designs and mixes to the characteristics of the socio-technical system targeted by public interventions, and, on the other hand, the demonstration of the extremely non-linear and non-constant relations between policy inputs, such as public R&D expenditures and feed-in tariff levels, and policy outcomes, such as PV diffusion, and job creation, and how choices in policy design can shape these relations.

Report summarizing the activities of the YES-Europe 2018 Annual Conference that took place during March 16-17, 2018 at the School of Mines and Energy (ETSIME) of the Technical University of Madrid (UPM), in Madrid, Spain.

This report aims to understand what lies ahead for the energy system according to the next generation of professionals in the energy sector. It summarizes the insights from a survey conducted through YES-Europe’s network of young leaders for energy and sustainability. Eighty-eight respondents from 20 countries shared their perspectives about the future of energy. We analyse the forces shaping the future of energy, the energy scenarios envisioned by our respondents, and how these scenarios may come into being from different balances in the forces shaping them. The first section focuses on the Forces Shaping the Future of Energy. The young generation in the energy industry believes that out of the energy trilemma, affordability and security of supply will have lower relevance than today while the focus will shift towards sustainability. Climate change is seen as the key mega-trend shaping the future of energy. Regulation and energy technologies are expected to undergo the largest disruption, driven by technology innovation. Secondly, we outline three Scenarios for the Future of Energy. Most respondents envision a “Sustainability Common Goal” (SCG) scenario with strong decarbonisation and decentralization. The “Divergent Priorities” (DP) scenario predicts diverging pathways for emerging and developed economies conducive to a more decentralized system with a sizeable reliance on fossil fuels. Finally, the “Negative Balance” (NB) scenario contains no major change in the next two decades, which results in a centralized system and a strong dominance of fossil fuels. Thirdly, we analyse the Roads to each Scenario. Sustainability becomes crucial in all three scenarios. In the DP and NB scenarios, demographic changes play a more relevant role than in the SCG scenario. Additionally, in the NB scenario, technology breakthroughs are much less prominent. Overall, the young generations in energy foresee a future of energy shaped by climate change. Technology innovation drives change in a world where supplying a growing energy demand becomes even more challenging.

Energy students lack support for launching start-ups and finding internships in industry. Young energy professionals lack support for launching start-ups and finding first job opportunities. Universities and student-led organizations are seen as key support providers during university, while the energy industry is seen as an essential partner both during and after university years. Energy students and young professionals have similar views of their support needs, but there exist strong regional differences.

This report explores the present and future of the off-grid solar private sector from the perspective of entrepreneurs. By answering the classical five W questions: “Why? Where? When? What? (How?) Who?” this study reviews the emergence and dynamics of the start-ups that have shaped the field of energy access field for the past decade. In the first section, the question “Why off-grid matters?” serves as an introduction to our study. Next, we analyse where and when off-grid solar start-ups have emerged, and we continue with what are their main activity areas and how these start-ups connect developed and developing economies through this new market. To conclude, we address the “Who?” question in order to understand the people behind these organizations and which path led them to work in this sector. This report highlights the key geographical spots that gave birth to the off-grid solar sector, both in Europe with Germany and UK playing a leading role, and in Africa. There, Eastern countries have been the pioneers, especially Kenya and Tanzania. Likewise, it describes how the sector has expanded across the two continents in the past decade reaching the western states of Africa through the action of several central European countries (France, The Nether-lands). The diversification of the firms’ focus area emerges as a recent trend, and seems likely to increase within the next years, which could possibly affect the geographical distribution of the companies. The heterogeneity in country and study backgrounds of the founders points out to the key role of combining expertise for addressing all the challenges of the off-grid solar market. To collect different perspectives, this report includes two interviews with experts in off-grid solar. The first one with Farouk Maate Kibaba, Executive Director at the Green Lake Peace Centre, who provides unique insights into the Ugandan Energy sector and the role of solar installations in this promising African market. In the second interview, we talk to Sebastian Weida, Product Manager at Mobisol (the first and best-established distributor European company of off-grid solar products), who explains the challenges and motivations for working in the off-grid solar private sector.