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Estuaries are among the most valuable aquatic systems in terms of their services to human welfare. They offer an ideal framework to assess multiscale processes linking climate and food web dynamics through the hydrological cycle. Resolving food web responses to climate change is fundamental to resilience management of these threatened ecosystems under global change scenarios. Here, we examined the temporal variability of the plankton food web in the Mondego Estuary, central Iberian Peninsula, over the period 2003 to 2012. The results pointed out a cascading effect from climate to plankton communities that follow a non-stationary behavior shaped by the climate variance envelope. Concurrent changes in hydrographic processes at the regional, that is, upwelling intensity, and local, that is, estuarine hydrology, scales were driven by climatic forcing promoted by the North Atlantic Oscillation; the influence of which permeated the physical environment in the estuary affecting both autotrophic and heterotrophic communities. The most conspicuous change arose around 2008 and consisted of an obvious decrease in freshwater taxa along with a noticeable increase in marine organisms, mainly driven by gelatinous zooplankton. The observed increase in small-sized cosmopolitan copepods, that is, Clausocalanus arcuicornis, Oithona plumifera, thermophilic species, that is, Penilia avirostris, and gelatinous zooplankton suggests a structural change in the Mondego plankton community. These results provide empirical support to the expectation that expanding climate variance changes plankton structure and functioning, likely fostering trophic interactions in pelagic food webs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that midlatitude air-sea interactions are strongly modulated by synoptic variability. The present study investigates how air-sea interactions over the Gulf Stream sea surface temperature (SST) front vary in different synoptic regimes. We focus more particularly on the variation of three atmospheric mean state features which are colocated with the SST front in winter: enhanced ascent and precipitation on the warm side of the SST front, and enhanced low-level baroclinicity at the entrance of the storm track. These three fields are partitioned depending on whether they occur in the cold sector of extratropical cyclones or in any other synoptic features. The analysis is based on ERA-Interim winter data covering the period 1979-2012. Results are twofold: (i) Cold sector precipitation is confined within a 5° latitude band south of the SST front and reaches 2 mm day−1, whereas precipitation occurring outside the cold sector forms a broader spatial pattern. The same partitioning applied to vertical wind shows that the ascent on the warm side of the Gulf Stream is not a feature of the cold sector. These results mean that a significant part of the anchoring effect of the SST front on precipitation occurs via the cold sector and that the observed colocation of ascent and precipitation is not causal, in contrast to what was suggested by previous studies, but is rather the result of two different mechanisms. (ii) The surface heat fluxes and convection occurring in the cold sector restore low-level atmospheric temperature gradients within two days after a time maximum of meridional eddy heat flux, such that low-level baroclinicity remains largely unchanged after the passage of an extratropical cyclone. This 'cold path mechanism' opens new avenues to understand how SST forces climate variability in the midlatitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003–2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona , while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica . Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eirik Drift lies on the slope south of Greenland, where it has been formed under the influence of the Western Boundary Undercurrent (WBUC) closely downstream of its origin in the deep-water formation centres of the Nordic Seas. Therefore, the sediment record at Eirik Drift documents modifications in pathways and intensity of the WBUC. These modifications reflect alterations in deep-water formation in the Nordic Seas and are therefore coupled with climate changes. Based on the seismostratigraphic analysis of sedimentary architecture identified in a set of high-resolution seismic reflection data, we have reconstructed the palaeocirculation of the WBUC at Eirik Drift since the early Miocene. We revealed a strong WBUC during warm climate conditions, and in phases of climate cooling with enhanced sea-ice extent we interpreted weak WBUC influence. We suggest a southward shift of the deep-water formation regions along with a shift of the deep current system during the cool phases. This shift implies that the main North Atlantic Deep Water route affected Eirik Drift only during warm phases and that during cool phases weak branches of the circulation system flowed over Eirik Drift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new fossil pollen record from Tso Moriri (32°54′N, 78°19′E, 4512 m a.s.l.) and seeks to reconstruct changes in mean annual precipitation (MAP) during the last 12,000 years. This high-alpine lake occupies an area of 140 km 2 in a glacial-tectonic valley in the northwestern Himalaya. The region has a cold climate, with a MAP <300 mm, and open vegetation. The hydrology is controlled by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), but winter westerly-associated precipitation also affects the regional water balance. Results indicate that precipitation levels varied significantly during the Holocene. After a rapid increase in MAP, a phase of maximum humidity was reached between ca. 11 and 9.6 cal ka BP, followed by a gradual decline in MAP. This trend parallels the reduction in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Comparison of different palaeoclimate proxy records reveal evidence for a stronger Holocene decrease in precipitation in the northern versus the southern parts of the ISM domain. The long-term trend of ISM weakening is overlaid with several short periods of greater dryness, which are broadly synchronous with the North Atlantic cold spells, suggesting reduced amounts of westerly-associated winter precipitation. Compared to the mid and late Holocene, it appears that westerlies had a greater influence on the western parts of the ISM domain during the early Holocene. During this period, the westerly-associated summer precipitation belt was positioned at Mediterranean latitudes and amplified the ISM-derived precipitation. The Tso Moriri pollen record and moisture reconstructions also suggest that changes in climatic conditions affected the ancient Harappan Civilisation, which flourished in the greater Indus Valley from approximately 5.2 to 3 cal ka BP. The prolonged Holocene trend towards aridity, punctuated by an interval of increased dryness (between ca. 4.5 and 4.3 cal ka BP), may have pushed the Mature Harappan urban settlements (between ca. 4.5 and 3.9 cal ka BP) to develop more efficient agricultural practices to deal with the increasingly acute water shortages. The amplified aridity associated with North Atlantic cooling between ca. 4 and 3.6 and around 3.2 cal ka BP further hindered local agriculture, possibly causing the deurbanisation that occurred from ca. 3.9 cal ka BP and eventual collapse of the Harappan Civilisation between ca. 3.5 and 3 cal ka BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) is thought to be a key contributor to the strength and stability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), but the future of Mediterranean-Atlantic water exchange is uncertain. It is chiefly dependent on the difference between Mediterranean and Atlantic temperature and salinity characteristics, and as a semi-enclosed basin, the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to future changes in climate and water usage. Certainly, there is strong geologic evidence that the Mediterranean underwent dramatic salinity and sea-level fluctuations in the past. Here, we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model to examine the impact of changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange on global ocean circulation and climate. Our results suggest that MOW strengthens and possibly stabilises the AMOC not through any contribution towards NADW formation, but by delivering relatively warm, saline water to southbound Atlantic currents below 800 m. However, we find almost no climate signal associated with changes in Mediterranean-Atlantic flow strength. Mediterranean salinity, on the other hand, controls MOW buoyancy in the Atlantic and therefore affects its interaction with the shallow-intermediate circulation patterns that govern surface climate. Changing Mediterranean salinity by a factor of two reorganises shallow North Atlantic circulation, resulting in regional climate anomalies in the North Atlantic, Labrador and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas of ±4 °C or more. Although such major variations in salinity are believed to have occurred in the past, they are unlikely to occur in the near future. However, our work does suggest that changes in the Mediterranean's hydrological balance can impact global-scale climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We examined seasonal and interannual patterns of zooplankton functional groups in the Balearic Sea from 1994 to 2003 and revealed a conspicuous increase in zooplankton variance at community and population levels. The change occurred in 1999–2000, and paralleled modifications in the North Atlantic climate that cascaded down affecting the water column thermal gradient in the Balearic Sea. The observed modifications in both hydroclimate and ecological compartments raise the question of a potential ecological shift in the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean in the late 1990s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Fernández de Puelles, M. L., and Molinero, J. C. 2008. Decadal changes in hydrographic and ecological time-series in the Balearic Sea (western Mediterranean), identifying links between climate and zooplankton. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 311–317.We investigated possible relationships between climate, hydrography, and zooplankton abundance in the Balearic Sea (BS), during a 10-year survey period spanning January 1994 to December 2003. It was demonstrated that large-scale atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean acts as a driver of regional meteorological variations and hydrographic patterns in the BS. The results also revealed that the variability of copepods, appendicularians, cladocerans, siphonophores, doliolids, and ostracods is closely related to variations in water temperature recorded during strong anomalies of the NA climate (>1 s.d.). Although the time-series that we analysed cover a period that is relatively short for investigating climate effects on marine ecosystems, the statistical results reported were consistent enough to emphasize the NA’s climate effect on the BS. The cascade of links identified by these results should be considered and integrated into the assessment and modelling studies of pelagic ecosystem and biogeochemical fluxes in the western Mediterranean Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In marine ecosystems, pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish play a key role in matter and energy flow. While copepods support most food webs and the biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, chaetognaths and jellyfish may affect the strength of the top-down control upon plankton communities. In this study, we show that the main events in the long-term variability of these functional groups in the Northwestern Mediterranean were tightly linked to changes of climate forcing of the North Atlantic sector. Large-scale climate forcing has altered the pelagic food-web dynamics through changes in biological interactions, competition and predation, leading to substantial changes manifested as bursts or collapses in zooplankton populations, and consequently to a major change ca. 1987. These events become more frequent in the 1980s and the early 1990s in the studied zooplankton functional groups suggesting a shift in the functioning of the pelagic ecosystem. The environmental modifications and the results reported here are therefore, indicators of a regime change pointing to a more regeneration-dominated system in the study area. We suggest a chain of mechanisms, whereby climate variation has modified the long-term dynamics of pelagic copepods, chaetognaths and jellyfish in the Ligurian Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existence of a well-defined climate ‘see-saw’ across the North Atlantic region and surrounding areas has been known for over 200 years. The occurrence of severe winters in western Greenland frequently coincides with mild winters in northern Europe. Conversely, mild winters in western Greenland are frequently associated with cold winters across northern Europe. Whereas this ‘see-saw’ is normally discussed in terms of air temperature and pressure differences, here we explore how the climate ‘see-saw’ is reflected in records of historic storminess from Scotland, NW Ireland and Iceland. It is concluded that the stormiest winters in these regions during the last ca. 150 years have occurred when western Greenland temperatures have been significantly below average. In contrast, winters of reduced storminess have coincided with winters when air temperatures have been significantly above average in western Greenland. This reconstruction of winter storminess implies a relationship between chronologies of coastal erosion and the history of North Atlantic climate ‘see-saw’ dynamics with sustained winter storminess, and hence increased coastal erosion, taking place when the Icelandic low pressure cell is strongly anchored within the circulation of the northern hemisphere. Considered over the last ca. 2000 years, it would appear that winter storminess and climate-driven coastal erosion was at a minimum during the Medieval Warm Period. By contrast, the time interval from ca. AD 1420 until present has been associated with sustained winter storminess across the North Atlantic that has resulted in accelerated coastal erosion and sand drift. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The extent and mechanisms of the Atlantic response to the historical (1850–1975) increase of sulphate aerosol emissions from North America and Europe as simulated in eight‐member ensemble experiments with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1)‐Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 are contrasted. The results show that aerosols from either source cause a long‐term cooling of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, with the patterns a combination of atmospheric aerosol effects and an aerosol‐induced strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The response to North American emissions is larger since prevailing winds cause wider aerosol spread over the Atlantic, collocated with climatological cloud cover. The Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts southward affecting tropical precipitation globally. The simulated (multi)decadal components of sea surface temperature and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability are furthermore primarily externally forced. The analysis provides novel insights into the mechanisms of aerosol impact on the Atlantic. It suggests that projected further emission reductions will lead to opposite changes. Plain Language Summary: Changes in North Atlantic ocean surface temperatures on time scales of ten or more years impact climate worldwide. However, there is still no consensus on how much of the observed Atlantic variations since the mid‐nineteenth century are due to natural variability or man‐made factors and on the roles of atmosphere, ocean, and their interactions. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to understand better the effect of man‐made emissions of sulphur dioxide on the Atlantic. This gas forms little particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere, which can influence climate by interacting with sunlight and clouds. We run model simulations for the period 1850–1975 with and without estimates of aerosol emissions from North America and Europe, where most of the global emissions came from. We find that aerosols from both continents caused a decrease in Atlantic temperatures and caused changes in ocean circulation to bring in turn more heat into the North Atlantic. The aerosols caused rainfall over equatorial countries to move southward; this effect was larger for North American than for European emissions. If reality behaves like the model, we expect these changes to reverse when aerosol emissions decrease further in the future, with impacts on ecosystems and livelihoods. Key Points: Anthropogenic sulphate aerosols cause substantial long‐term cooling of North Atlantic SSTs in the coupled CESM1‐CAM5 model during 1850–1975North American emissions cause more cooling than European emissions due to aerosol and cloud patterns but both share AMOC and ITCZ responseExternal forcing dominates the simulated multidecadal SST (AMV) and AMOC variability, and the forced response is detected in the observed AMV [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]