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Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time., Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time.

Anthropogenic environmental change has led to biodiversity decline, including intraspecific genetic diversity which has significant impact for the long-term persistence of a species. For many endangered species, such genetic erosion is caused by recent different drivers of global change, triggering population bottlenecks that considerably reduce genetic diversity. In this thesis, I examine four Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs, genetic diversity, population structure, inbreeding, and effective population size (Ne)) of the endangered regent honeyeater (Anthochaera phrygia) through whole genome data of both museum specimens and modern samples to investigate how past anthropogenic changes have impacted the genetics of this highly mobile species. Contrary to the observations in the previous studies, an abrupt drop in Ne in the mid-19th century and a significant loss of genetic diversity since the last decade of the 19th century is detectable, meaning that the population bottleneck has impinged on the genetics of the species. Nevertheless, minimum genetic structure and inbreeding is observed in the species. It is possible that as the bottleneck is rather recent, and the negative effects are yet to manifest in the genomics. Overall, my thesis gives a clear example of the value and limitations of genomic data linked to environmental change events on the assessment of conservation status of wild species.

During the last glacial–interglacial cycle, Arctic biotas experienced substantial climatic changes, yet the nature, extent and rate of their responses are not fully understood1–8. Here we report a large-scale environmental DNA metagenomic study of ancient plant and mammal communities, analysing 535 permafrost and lake sediment samples from across the Arctic spanning the past 50,000 years. Furthermore, we present 1,541 contemporary plant genome assemblies that were generated as reference sequences. Our study provides several insights into the long-term dynamics of the Arctic biota at the circumpolar and regional scales. Our key findings include: (1) a relatively homogeneous steppe–tundra flora dominated the Arctic during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by regional divergence of vegetation during the Holocene epoch; (2) certain grazing animals consistently co-occurred in space and time; (3) humans appear to have been a minor factor in driving animal distributions; (4) higher effective precipitation, as well as an increase in the proportion of wetland plants, show negative effects on animal diversity; (5) the persistence of the steppe–tundra vegetation in northern Siberia enabled the late survival of several now-extinct megafauna species, including the woolly mammoth until 3.9 ± 0.2 thousand years ago (ka) and the woolly rhinoceros until 9.8 ± 0.2 ka; and (6) phylogenetic analysis of mammoth environmental DNA reveals a previously unsampled mitochondrial lineage. Our findings highlight the power of ancient environmental metagenomics analyses to advance understanding of population histories and long-term ecological dynamics.

Northeastern Siberia has been inhabited by humans for more than 40,000 years but its deep population history remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the late Pleistocene population history of northeastern Siberia through analyses of 34 newly recovered ancient genomes that date to between 31,000 and 600 years ago. We document complex population dynamics during this period, including at least three major migration events: an initial peopling by a previously unknown Palaeolithic population of ‘Ancient North Siberians’ who are distantly related to early West Eurasian hunter-gatherers; the arrival of East Asian-related peoples, which gave rise to ‘Ancient Palaeo-Siberians’ who are closely related to contemporary communities from far-northeastern Siberia (such as the Koryaks), as well as Native Americans; and a Holocene migration of other East Asian-related peoples, who we name ‘Neo-Siberians’, and from whom many contemporary Siberians are descended. Each of these population expansions largely replaced the earlier inhabitants, and ultimately generated the mosaic genetic make-up of contemporary peoples who inhabit a vast area across northern Eurasia and the Americas.

Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as ' Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

Are we entering a new 'Golden Age' of biogeography, with continued development of infrastructure and ideas? We highlight recent developments, and the challenges and opportunities they bring, in light of the snapshot provided by the 7th biennial meeting of the International Biogeography Society (IBS 2015). We summarize themes in and across 15 symposia using narrative analysis and word clouds, which we complement with recent publication trends and 'research fronts'. We find that biogeography is still strongly defined by core sub-disciplines that reflect its origins in botanical, zoological (particularly bird and mammal), and geographic (e.g., island, montane) studies of the 1800s. That core is being enriched by large datasets (e.g. of environmental variables, 'omics', species' occurrences, traits) and new techniques (e.g., advances in genetics, remote sensing, modeling) that promote studies with increasing detail and at increasing scales; disciplinary breadth is being diversified (e.g., by developments in paleobiogeography and microbiology) and integrated through the transfer of approaches and sharing of theory (e.g., spatial modeling and phylogenetics in evolutionary-ecological contexts). Yet some subdisciplines remain on the fringe (e.g., marine biogeography, deep-time paleobiogeography), new horizons and new theory may be overshadowed by popular techniques (e.g., species distribution modelling), and hypotheses, data, and analyses may each be wanting. Trends in publication suggest a shift away from traditional biogeography journals to multidisciplinary or open access journals. Thus, there are currently many opportunities and challenges as biogeography increasingly addresses human impacts on, and stewardship of, the planet (e.g., Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services). As in the past, biogeographers doubtless will continue to be engaged by new data and methods in exploring the nexus between biology and geography for decad

Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird-plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization.

Aim To investigate the association between hummingbird–plant network structure and species richness, phylogenetic signal on species' interaction pattern, insularity and historical and current climate. Location Fifty-four communities along a c. 10,000 km latitudinal gradient across the Americas (39° N–32° S), ranging from sea level to c. 3700 m a.s.l., located on the mainland and on islands and covering a wide range of climate regimes. Methods We measured the level of specialization and modularity in mutualistic plant–hummingbird interaction networks. Using an ordinary least squares multimodel approach, we examined the influence of species richness, phylogenetic signal, insularity and current and historical climate conditions on network structure (null-model-corrected specialization and modularity). Results Phylogenetically related species, especially plants, showed a tendency to interact with a similar array of mutualistic partners. The spatial variation in network structure exhibited a constant association with species phylogeny (R2 = 0.18–0.19); however, network structure showed the strongest association with species richness and environmental factors (R2 = 0.20–0.44 and R2 = 0.32–0.45, respectively). Specifically, higher levels of specialization and modularity were associated with species-rich communities and communities in which closely related hummingbirds visited distinct sets of flowering species. On the mainland, specialization was also associated with warmer temperatures and greater historical temperature stability. Main conclusions Our results confirm the results of previous macroecological studies of interaction networks which have highlighted the importance of species richness and the environment in determining network structure. Additionally, for the first time, we report an association between network structure and species phylogenetic signal at a macroecological scale, indicating that high specia

The late Quaternary extinctions have been widely debated for a long time, but the varying magnitude of human vs. climate change impacts across time and space is still an unresolved question. Here we assess the geographic range shifts in response to climate change based on Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and modeled the timing for extinction under human hunting scenario, and both variables were used to explain the extinction dynamics of Proboscideans during a full interglacial/glacial cycle (from 126 ka to 6 ka) in South America. We found a large contraction in the geographic range size of two Proboscidean species studied (Cuvieronius hyodon and Notiomastodon platensis) across time. The largest contractions of their geographical ranges occurred in the northern part of South America, where we previously reported no evidence of coexistence among earliest humans and non-sloth megafauna, including Proboscideans. Our results herein support a strong effect of climatic changes on geographical range dynamics of Proboscideans throughout late Quaternary, although this does not fully support climate change as the single cause of their extinctions. We show that both Proboscideans were narrowly distributed on scattered patches of suitable habitats (i.e., refugia) around 11 ka, period in which the earliest humans potentially arrived in South America, increasing the population density thereafter. Under this overall unsuitable climatic condition at 11 ka, both Proboscideans would be extinct after around 550 years of human hunting, but if climatic conditions were suitable like in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the time-for-extinction would be at least 3 times longer under the same human hunting pressures. Thus, our findings support the ``Broken Zig-Zag'' model and show that South American Proboscideans might have been completely extinct due to human impacts during periods of climate crisis. We conclude, in agreement with an increasing body of evidence in the recent literature, that the l

Synthesis of ecological and evolutionary concepts and tools has led to improved understanding of how diversification, dispersal, community assembly, long-term coexistence and extinction shape patterns of biological diversity. Phylogeography, with its focus on Quaternary interactions within and between populations, can help elucidate the processes acting between the evolutionary time-scales on which species arise and the ecological time-scales on which members of an assemblage interact with each other and their environment. Still, it has yet to be widely incorporated in that synthesis. Here, we highlight three areas where integration of phylogeography with ecological and evolutionary approaches can provide new insights into key questions. First, phylogeography can help clarify the roles of isolation, niche conservatism and environmental stability in generating patterns of alpha- and beta-diversity. Second, phylogeography can help isolate the effects of Quaternary dispersal limitation from other factors driving community assembly and spatial turnover. Third, phylogeography can help identify key processes leading to and resulting from extinction events, including the population dynamics of species range reduction and its effects on the strength and temporal flexibility of networks of species interactions. We conclude with an outlook on the data-gathering protocols necessary for this collaborative, interdisciplinary research agenda.

The structure of species interaction networks is important for species coexistence, community stability and exposure of species to extinctions. Two widespread structures in ecological networks are modularity, i.e. weakly connected subgroups of species that are internally highly interlinked, and nestedness, i.e. specialist species that interact with a subset of those species with which generalist species also interact. Modularity and nestedness are often interpreted as evolutionary ecological structures that may have relevance for community persistence and resilience against perturbations, such as climate-change. Therefore, historical climatic fluctuations could influence modularity and nestedness, but this possibility remains untested. This lack of research is in sharp contrast to the considerable efforts to disentangle the role of historical climate-change and contemporary climate on species distributions, richness and community composition patterns. Here, we use a global database of pollination networks to show that historical climate-change is at least as important as contemporary climate in shaping modularity and nestedness of pollination networks. Specifically, on the mainland we found a relatively strong negative association between Quaternary climate-change and modularity, whereas nestedness was most prominent in areas having experienced high Quaternary climate-change. On islands, Quaternary climate-change had weak effects on modularity and no effects on nestedness. Hence, for both modularity and nestedness, historical climate-change has left imprints on the network structure of mainland communities, but had comparably little effect on island communities. Our findings highlight a need to integrate historical climate fluctuations into eco-evolutionary hypotheses of network structures, such as modularity and nestedness, and then test these against empirical data. We propose that historical climate-change may have left imprints in the structural organisation of

Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low-resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient. Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east). Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041–70 and 2071–2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. Results The models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold-adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80–99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for cold–wet-optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad-leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%

Here we analyze the effects that climatic changes through last ice age had on the potential distributions and extinction risk dynamics of two extinct species of South American giant ground sloths, Eremotherium laurillardi and Megatherium americanum. We tested the assumption of stability of the climate preferences through time for the two species and modeled their potential distributions at last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 ky BP) and mid-Holocene (6 ky BP) using Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling (BEM), fossil records and paleoclimatic simulations. The model predictions showed a drastic reduction of the geographical ranges for both species during mid-Holocene, along with a considerable fragmentation of their core climatic conditions and refugia, although it did not fully disappear at this time. Thus, our findings point out that the extinction risk of both species greatly increased as a consequence of the climate change, although do not support it as the unique stressor

Area of Occupancy (AOO), is a measure of species geographical ranges commonly used for species red listing. In most cases, AOO is estimated using reported localities of species distributions at coarse grain resolution, providing measures subjected to uncertainties of data quality and spatial resolution. To illustrate the ability of fine-resolution species distribution models for obtaining new measures of species ranges and their impact in conservation planning, we estimate the potential AOO of an endangered species in alpine environments. We use field occurrences of relict Empetrum nigrum and maximum entropy modeling to assess whether different sampling (expert versus systematic surveys) may affect AOO estimates based on habitat suitability maps, and the differences between such measurements and traditional coarse-grid methods. Fine-scale models performed robustly and were not influenced by survey protocols, providing similar habitat suitability outputs with high spatial agreement. Model-based estimates of potential AOO were significantly smaller than AOO measures obtained from coarse-scale grids, even if the first were obtained from conservative thresholds based on the Minimal Predicted Area (MPA). As defined here, the potential AOO provides spatially-explicit measures of species ranges which are permanent in the time and scarcely affected by sampling bias. The overestimation of these measures may be reduced using higher thresholds of habitat suitability, but standard rules as the MPA permit comparable measures among species. We conclude that estimates of AOO based on fine-resolution distribution models are more robust tools for risk assessment than traditional systems, allowing a better understanding of species ranges at habitat level.

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36–55% of alpine species, 31–51% of subalpine species and 19–46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070–2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Current climate and Pleistocene climatic changes are both known to be associated with geographical patterns of diversity. We assess their associations with the European Scarabaeinae dung beetles, a group with high dispersal ability and well-known adaptations to warm environments. By assessing spatial stationarity in climate variability since the last glacial maximum (LGM), we find that current scarab richness is related to the location of their limits of thermal tolerance during the LGM. These limits mark a strong change in their current species richness–environment relationships. Furthermore, northern scarab assemblages are nested and composed of a phylogenetically clustered subset of large-range sized generalist species, whereas southern ones are diverse and variable in composition. Our results show that species responses to current climate are limited by the evolution of assemblages that occupied relatively climatically stable areas during the Pleistocene, and by post-glacial dispersal in those that were strongly affected by glaciations.

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P

Species distribution modeling (SDM: statistical and/or mechanistic approaches to the assessment of range determinants and prediction of species occurrence) offers new possibilities for estimating and studying past organism distributions. SDM complements fossil and genetic evidence by providing (i) quantitative and potentially high-resolution predictions of the past organism distributions, (ii) statistically formulated, testable ecological hypotheses regarding past distributions and communities, and (iii) statistical assessment of range determinants. In this article, we provide an overview of applications of SDM to paleobiology, outlining the methodology, reviewing SDM-based studies to paleobiology or at the interface of paleo- and neobiology, discussing assumptions and uncertainties as well as how to handle them, and providing a synthesis and outlook. Key methodological issues for SDM applications to paleobiology include predictor variables (types and properties; special emphasis is given to paleoclimate), model validation (particularly important given the emphasis on cross-temporal predictions in paleobiological applications), and the integration of SDM and genetics approaches. Over the last few years the number of studies using SDM to address paleobiology-related questions has increased considerably. While some of these studies only use SDM (23%), most combine them with genetically inferred patterns (49%), paleoecological records (22%), or both (6%). A large number of SDM-based studies have addressed the role of Pleistocene glacial refugia in biogeography and evolution, especially in Europe, but also in many other regions. SDM-based approaches are also beginning to contribute to a suite of other research questions, such as historical constraints on current distributions and diversity patterns, the end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, past community assembly, human paleobiogeography, Holocene paleoecology, and even deep-time biogeography (notably, providing insi

The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change.

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

Udgivelsesdato: September 2009, Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose hypotheses concerning the past population structure of species in phylogeographical studies. CEMs are sensitive to theoretical assumptions, to model classes and to projections in non-analogous climates, among other issues. Studies hindcasting the climatic niches of species often make reference to these limitations. However, to obtain strong scientific inferences, we must not only be aware of these potential limitations but we must also overcome them. Here, I review the literature on hindcasting CEMs. I discuss the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling, i.e. the stability of climatic niches through time and the equilibrium of species with climate. I also summarize a set of 'recommended practices' to improve hindcasting. The studies reviewed: (1) rarely test the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling such as the stability of species climatic niches through time and the equilibrium of species with climate; (2) they only use one model class (72% of the studies) and one palaeoclimatic reconstruction (62.5%) to calibrate their models; (3) they do not check for the occurrence of non-analogous climates (97%); and (4) they do not use independent data to validate the models (72%). Ignoring the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling and using inadequate methods for hindcasting CEMs may well entail a cascade of errors and naïve ecological and evolutionary inferences. We should also push integrative research lines linking macroecology, physiology, population biology, palaeontology, evolutionary biology and CEMs for a better understanding of niche dynamics across space and time.

Udgivelsesdato: December 2009, Efforts to disentangle the mechanisms underlying large-scale spatial patterns need to rely on multi-scale approaches. We illustrate this key issue by analyzing the spatial consistency across scales of the effects of abiotic constraints on the regeneration of English yew Taxus baccata in Europe. We hypothesized that the recruitment rates in a given population would be strongly affected by water availability, which should result in a predictable pattern of regeneration success at regional and continental scales. Accordingly, we predicted: 1) at the regional scale water availability should be higher in sites occupied by yew populations than in random locations; 2) at the regional scale regeneration success should decrease when water availability is lower; and 3) at the continental scale, regeneration success should also decrease where water availability is lower, resulting in decreasing regeneration southwards. To test these predictions we first monitored seedling emergence and survival in two central Spanish populations over two years, and confirmed that yew recruitment is limited by water availability. Additionally, our analysis supported predictions 1 and 2: water availability strongly affected yew presence and regeneration success. At the continental scale (prediction 3), our results confirmed lower regeneration in southern European populations. Assessing the effect of climatic constraints across scales in key population parameters can help to improve large-scale assessments of impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Udgivelsesdato: 2008-May-8, Despite two centuries of effort in characterizing environmental gradients of species richness in search of universal patterns, surprisingly few of these patterns have been widely acknowledged. Species richness along altitudinal gradients was previously assumed to increase universally from cool highlands to warm lowlands, mirroring the latitudinal increase in species richness from cool to warm latitudes. However, since the more recent general acceptance of altitudinal gradients as model templates for testing hypotheses behind large-scale patterns of diversity, these gradients have been used in support of all the main diversity hypotheses, although little consensus has been achieved. Here we show that when resampling a data set comprising 400,000 records for 3,046 Pyrenean floristic species at different scales of analysis (achieved by varying grain size and the extent of the gradients sampled), the derived species richness pattern changed progressively from hump-shaped to a monotonic pattern as the scale of extent diminished. Scale effects alone gave rise to as many conflicting patterns of species richness as had previously been reported in the literature, and scale effects lent significantly different statistical support to competing diversity hypotheses. Effects of scale on current studies may be affected by human activities, because montane ecosystems and human activities are intimately connected. This interdependence has led to a global reduction in natural lowland habitats, hampering our ability to detect universal patterns and impeding the search for universal diversity gradients to discover the mechanisms determining the distribution of biological diversity on Earth.

Udgivelsesdato: September 2006, Aim Species richness-area theory predicts that more species should be found if one samples a larger area. To avoid biases from comparing species richness in areas of very different sizes, area is often controlled by counting the numbers of co-occupying species in near-equal area grid cells. The assumption is that variation in grid cell size accrued from working in a three-dimensional world is negligible. Here we provide a first test of this idea. We measure the surface area of c. 50 × 50 km and c. 220 × 220 km grid cells across western Europe. We then ask how variation in the area of grid cells affects: (1) the selection of climate variables entering a species richness model; and (2) the accuracy of models in predicting species richness in unsampled grid cells.Location Western Europe.Methods Models are developed for European plant, breeding bird, mammal and herptile species richness using seven climate variables. Generalized additive models are used to relate species richness, climate and area.Results We found that variation in the grid cell area was large (50 × 50 km: 8-3311 km2; 220 × 220: 193-55,100 km2), but this did not affect the selection of variables in the models. Similarly, the predictive accuracy was affected only marginally by exclusion of area within models developed at the c. 50 × 50 km grid cells, although predictive accuracy suffered greater reductions when area was not included as a covariate in models developed for c. 220 × 220 km grid cells.Main conclusions Our results support the assumption that variation in near-equal area cells may be of second-order importance for models explaining or predicting species richness in relation to climate, although there is a possibility that drops in accuracy might increase with grid cell size. The results are, however, contingent on this particular data set, grain and extent of the analyses, and more empirical work is required.