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In recent years, the Generalised Quasilinear (GQL) approximation has been developed and its efficacy tested against purely quasilinear (QL) approximations. GQL systematically interpolates between QL and fully non-linear dynamics by employing a generalised Reynolds decomposition. Here, we examine an exact statistical closure for the GQL equations on the doubly periodic $\beta$-plane. Closure is achieved at second order using a generalised cumulant approach which we term GCE2. GCE2 is shown to yield improved performance over statistical representations of purely QL dynamics (CE2) and thus enables Direct Statistical Simulation (DSS) of complex mean flows that do not entirely fall within the remit of pure QL theory. Despite the existence of an exact closure, GCE2 like CE2 admits the possibility of a rank instability that leads to differences with statistics obtained from GQL. Recognition of this instability is a necessary step before further progress can be made with the GCE2 statistical closure., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures. Version to appear in JFM

It is widely believed that statistical closure theories for dynamical systems provide statistics equivalent to those of the governing dynamical equations from which the former are derived. Here, we demonstrate counterexamples in the context of the widely used mean-field quasilinear (QL) approximation applied to 2D fluid dynamical systems. We compare statistics of QL numerical simulations with those obtained by direct statistical simulation via a cumulant expansion closed at second order (CE2). We observe that, though CE2 is an exact statistical closure for QL dynamics, its predictions disagree with the statistics of the QL solution for identical parameter values. These disagreements are attributed to instabilities, which we term rank instabilities, of the second cumulant dynamics within CE2 that are unavailable in the QL equations., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures