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Abstract Background Adults infected with Plasmodium spp. in endemic areas need to be re-evaluated in light of global malaria elimination goals. They potentially undermine malaria interventions but remain an overlooked aspect of public health strategies. Methods This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infections, to identify underlying parasite species, and to assess predicting factors among adults residing in an endemic area from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A community-based cross-sectional survey in subjects aged 18 years and above was therefore carried out. Study participants were interviewed using a standard questionnaire and tested for Plasmodium spp. using a rapid diagnostic test and a nested polymerase chain reaction assay. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effect of potential predictive factors for infections with different Plasmodium spp. Results Overall, 420 adults with an estimated prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infections of 60.2% [95% CI 55.5; 64.8] were included. Non-falciparum species infected 26.2% [95% CI 22.2; 30.5] of the study population. Among infected participants, three parasite species were identified, including Plasmodium falciparum (88.5%), Plasmodium malariae (39.9%), and Plasmodium ovale (7.5%) but no Plasmodium vivax. Mixed species accounted for 42.3% of infections while single-species infections predominated with P. falciparum (56.5%) among infected participants. All infected participants were asymptomatic at the time of the survey. Adults belonging to the “most economically disadvantaged” households had increased risks of infections with any Plasmodium spp. (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 2.87 [95% CI 1.66, 20.07]; p

Abstract Background When conducting COVID-19 contact tracing, pre-defined criteria allow differentiating high-risk contacts (HRC) from low-risk contacts (LRC). Our study aimed to evaluate whether contact tracers in Belgium followed these criteria in practice and whether their deviations improved the infection risk assessment. Method We conducted a retrospective cohort study in Belgium, through an anonymous online survey, sent to 111,763 workers by email. First, we evaluated the concordance between the guideline-based classification of HRC or LRC and the tracer’s classification. We computed positive and negative agreements between both. Second, we used a multivariate Poisson regression to calculate the risk ratio (RR) of testing positive depending on the risk classification by the contact tracer and by the guideline-based risk classification. Results For our first research question, we included 1105 participants. The positive agreement between the guideline-based classification in HRC or LRC and the tracer’s classification was 0.53 (95% CI 0.49–0.57) and the negative agreement 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67–0.72). The type of contact tracer (occupational doctors, internal tracer, general practitioner, other) did not significantly influence the results. For the second research question, we included 589 participants. The RR of testing positive after an HRC compared to an LRC was 3.10 (95% CI: 2.71–3.56) when classified by the contact tracer and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.94–2.60) when classified by the guideline-based criteria. Conclusion Our study indicates that contact tracers did not apply pre-defined criteria for classifying high and low risk contacts. Risk stratification by contact tracers predicts who is at risk of infection better than guidelines only. This result indicates that a knowledgeable tracer can target testing better than a general guideline, asking for a debate on how to adapt the guidelines.

Abstract Context The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), one of the most malaria-affected countries worldwide, is a potential hub for global drug-resistant malaria. This study aimed at summarizing and mapping surveys of malaria parasites carrying molecular markers of drug-resistance across the country. Methods A systematic mapping review was carried out before July 2023 by searching for relevant articles through seven databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, African Journal Online, African Index Medicus, Bioline and Web of Science). Results We identified 1541 primary studies of which 29 fulfilled inclusion criteria and provided information related to 6385 Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates (collected from 2000 to 2020). We noted the PfCRT K76T mutation encoding for chloroquine-resistance in median 32.1% [interquartile interval, IQR: 45.2] of analyzed malaria parasites. The proportion of parasites carrying this mutation decreased overtime, but wide geographic variations persisted. A single isolate had encoded the PfK13 R561H substitution that is invoked in artemisinin-resistance emergence in the Great Lakes region of Africa. Parasites carrying various mutations linked to resistance to the sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine combination were widespread and reflected a moderate resistance profile (PfDHPS A437G: 99.5% [IQR: 3.9]; PfDHPS K540E: 38.9% [IQR: 47.7]) with median 13.1% [IQR: 10.3] of them being quintuple IRN–GE mutants (i.e., parasites carrying the PfDHFR N51I–C59R–S108N and PfDHPS A437G–K540E mutations). These quintuple mutants tended to prevail in eastern regions of the country. Among circulating parasites, we did not record any parasites harboring mutations related to mefloquine-resistance, but we could suspect those with decreased susceptibility to quinine, amodiaquine, and lumefantrine based on corresponding molecular surrogates. Conclusions Drug resistance poses a serious threat to existing malaria therapies and chemoprevention options in the DRC. This review provides a baseline for monitoring public health efforts as well as evidence for decision-making in support of national malaria policies and for implementing regionally tailored control measures across the country.

Abstract Background Burden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes. Methods Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study. Results In 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 − 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 − 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms. Conclusion COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.

Abstract Background ETRAMP11.2 (PVX_003565) is a well-characterized protein with antigenic potential. It is considered to be a serological marker for diagnostic tools, and it has been suggested as a potential vaccine candidate. Despite its immunological relevance, the polymorphism of the P. vivax ETRAMP11.2 gene (pvetramp11.2) remains undefined. The genetic variability of an antigen may limit the effectiveness of its application as a serological surveillance tool and in vaccine development and, therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the genetic diversity of pvetramp11.2 in parasite populations from Amazonian regions and worldwide. We also evaluated amino acid polymorphism on predicted B-cell epitopes. The low variability of the sequence encoding PvETRAMP11.2 protein suggests that it would be a suitable marker in prospective serodiagnostic assays for surveillance strategies or in vaccine design against P. vivax malaria. Methods The pvetramp11.2 of P. vivax isolates collected from Brazil (n = 68) and Peru (n = 36) were sequenced and analyzed to assess nucleotide polymorphisms, allele distributions, population differentiation, genetic diversity and signature of selection. In addition, sequences (n = 104) of seven populations from different geographical regions were retrieved from the PlasmoDB database and included in the analysis to study the worldwide allele distribution. Potential linear B-cell epitopes and their polymorphisms were also explored. Results The multiple alignments of 208 pvetramp11.2 sequences revealed a low polymorphism and a marked geographical variation in allele diversity. Seven polymorphic sites and 11 alleles were identified. All of the alleles were detected in isolates from the Latin American region and five alleles were detected in isolates from the Southeast Asia/Papua New Guinea (SEA/PNG) region. Three alleles were shared by all Latin American populations (H1, H6 and H7). The H1 allele (reference allele from Salvador-1 strain), which was absent in the SEA/PNG populations, was the most represented allele in populations from Brazil (54%) and was also detected at high frequencies in populations from all other Latin America countries (range: 13.0% to 33.3%). The H2 allele was the major allele in SEA/PNG populations, but was poorly represented in Latin America populations (only in Brazil: 7.3%). Plasmodium vivax populations from Latin America showed a marked inter-population genetic differentiation (fixation index [Fst]) in contrast to SEA/PNG populations. Codon bias measures (effective number of codons [ENC] and Codon bias index [CBI]) indicated preferential use of synonymous codons, suggesting selective pressure at the translation level. Only three amino acid substitutions, located in the C-terminus, were detected. Linear B-cell epitope mapping predicted two epitopes in the Sal-1 PvETRAMP11.2 protein, one of which was fully conserved in all of the parasite populations analyzed. Conclusions We provide an overview of the allele distribution and genetic differentiation of ETRAMP11.2 antigen in P. vivax populations from different endemic areas of the world. The reduced polymorphism and the high degree of protein conservation supports the application of PvETRAMP11.2 protein as a reliable antigen for application in serological assays or vaccine design. Our findings provide useful information that can be used to inform future study designs. Graphical abstract

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288777.].

The majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, most of which are classified as “neglected”. By affecting both humans and animals, zoonoses pose a dual burden. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) metric quantifies human health burden since it combines mortality and morbidity. This review aims to describe and analyze the current state of evidence on neglected zoonotic diseases (NZDs) burden and start a discussion on the current understanding of the global burden of NZDs.We identified 26 priority NZDs through consulting three international repositories for national prioritization exercises. A systematic review of global and national burden of disease (BoD) studies was conducted using pre-selected databases. Data on diseases, location and DALYs were extracted for each eligible study.A total of 1887 records were screened, resulting in 74 eligible studies. The highest number of BoD was found for non-typhoidal salmonellosis (23), whereas no estimates were found for West Nile, Marburg and Lassa fever. Geographically, the highest number of studies was performed in the Netherlands (11), China (5) and Iran (4). The number of BoD retrieved mismatched the perceived importance in national prioritization exercises. For example, anthrax was considered a priority NZD in 65 countries; however, only one national study estimating BoD was retrieved. By summing the available global estimates, the selected NZDs caused at least 21 million DALYs per year, a similar order of magnitude to (but less than) the burden due to foodborne disease (included in the Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group).The global burden of disease landscape of NZDs remains scattered. There are several priority NZDs for which no burden estimates exist, and the number of BoD studies does not reflect national disease priorities. To have complete and consistent estimates of the global burden of NZDs, these diseases should be integrated in larger global burden of disease initiatives.

Abstract Safe and effective vaccines are crucial for the control of Covid-19 and to protect individuals at higher risk of severe disease. The test-negative design is a popular option for evaluating the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines. However, the findings could be biased by several factors, including imperfect sensitivity and/or specificity of the test used for diagnosing the SARS-Cov-2 infection. We propose a simple Bayesian modeling approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness that is robust even when the diagnostic test is imperfect. We use simulation studies to demonstrate the robustness of our method to misclassification bias and illustrate the utility of our approach using real-world examples.

Abstract Background Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and North America, yet its economic burden remains largely unknown. This study aimed to estimate the economic cost associated with the different clinical manifestations of LB in Belgium. Methods An incidence approach and societal perspective were used to estimate the total cost-of-illness for LB in Belgium. Costs were calculated for patients with erythema migrans (EM) or disseminated/late LB, including patients who developed post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome (PTLDS). Direct medical, direct non-medical (transportation & paid help) and indirect non-medical costs (productivity losses) were included in the analysis. Ambulatory cost data were collected through a prospective cohort study from June 2016 to March 2020, in which patients with LB were followed up 6 to 12 months after diagnosis. Hospitalization costs were retrieved from the Minimal Clinical Data registry, a mandatory registry for all Belgian hospitals, linked to the Minimal Financial Data registry. Costs were expressed in 2019 euros. Results The total annual cost associated with clinical manifestations of LB in Belgium was estimated at €5.59 million (95% UI 3.82–7.98). Of these, €3.44 million (95% UI 2.05–5.48) or 62% was related to disseminated/late LB diagnoses and €2.15 million (95% UI 1.30–3.26) to EM. In general, direct medical costs and productivity losses accounted for 49.8% and 46.4% of the total costs, respectively, while direct non-medical costs accounted for only 3.8%. The estimated mean costs were €193 per EM patient and €5,148 per disseminated/late LB patient. While patients with PTLDS seemed to have somewhat higher costs compared to patients without PTLDS, the number of patients was too small to have representative estimates. Conclusions We estimate the total annual direct medical costs, direct non-medical and indirect non-medical costs associated with LB to exceed €5.5 million per year, almost evenly distributed between EM (40%) and disseminated/late LB (60%). EM costs 26 times less per patient but occurs also 16 times more frequently than disseminated/late LB. The cost burden remains limited by comparison to other infectious diseases due to the relative lower incidence.

Abstract Background In a context of decreasing resources and growing health needs, evidence-based health and care policies are essential. This study aims to assess the health trends in Belgium between 1990 and 2019, to compare the Belgian health status to that of the EU-15 countries, and to identify the main drivers in trends over time and country differences within the EU-15. Methods We extracted estimates from the GBD 2019 study via the GBD results tool and visualization tools. We compared the Belgian health status with 14 European Union comparator countries between 1990 and 2019, and decomposed the time trends and country differences into the unique contributions of the different underlying causes of death and disability. Results Life expectancy (LE) in Belgium improved significantly between 1990 and 2019 for both men and women. Belgium age-standardised mortality rates dropped significantly for men (-40%) and women (-33%) between 1990 and 2019. Overall, Belgium age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates dropped by 23%. This decrease is mainly due to decreasing trends in age-standardised years of life lost (YLL) rates while age-standardised years lived with disability (YLD) rates remained stable. Compared to EU-15, Belgium’s ranking in terms of age-standardised DALY rates worsened for both men and women in 2019. Self-harm and falls are major causes of disease burden, with DALY rates that are higher than in many other EU-15 countries, indicating a realistic potential for improvement. Lung cancer DALY rates remain worrisome for men, and even show an increasing trend for women. Increasing trends of headache disorders, drug use disorders, and diabetes, require further attention. Conclusion Non-communicable diseases remain the main contributors for health burden in Belgium, with disability accounting for an increasingly larger share of the disease burden. Despite considerable improvements, Belgium’s ranking for DALYs decreased between 1990 and 2019 compared to the EU-15. This study identified priority causes of disease burden based on their contributions to current evolutions and EU-15 differences. Since many of these causes are considered to be avoidable, primary and secondary prevention are crucial elements for reducing the burden of disease on the healthcare system.

Abstract Background Patients with Lyme borreliosis (LB) may report persisting non-specific symptoms such as fatigue, widespread musculoskeletal pain or cognitive difficulties. When present for more than 6 months and causing a reduction in daily activities, this is often referred to as post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome (PTLDS). This study aimed to compare the occurrence of symptoms between LB patients and controls, to estimate the proportion of LB patients developing PTLDS and to identify risk factors. Methods A prospective cohort study was set up including three subpopulations: patients with an erythema migrans (EM) (i) or disseminated/late LB (ii) and a non-LB control group (iii). At 6- and 12-months follow-up, the occurrence of several symptoms, including six symptoms used to define PTLDS, i.e. muscle pain, joint pain, fatigue, memory problems, difficulties concentrating and problems finding words, and impact on daily activities, was compared between LB patients and controls. Finally, the proportion of LB patients developing PTLDS as defined by the Infectious Disease Society of America was estimated, including a time frame for symptoms to be present. Results Although the risk of presenting PTLDS-related symptoms was significantly higher in EM patients (n = 120) compared to controls (n = 128) at 6 months follow-up, the risk of presenting at least one of these symptoms combined with impact on daily activities was not significantly higher in EM patients, at either 6- or 12-months follow-up. A significant association was found between disseminated/late LB (n = 15) and the occurrence of any PTLDS-symptom with an impact on daily activities at both time points. The proportion of patients with PTLDS was estimated at 5.9% (95% CI 2.7–12.9) in EM patients and 20.9% (95% CI 6.8–64.4) in patients with disseminated/late LB (RR = 3.53, 95% CI 0.98–12.68, p = 0.053). No significant risk factors were identified, which may be explained by small sample sizes. Conclusions In our study, PTLDS was present in both LB cohorts, yet with a higher percentage in disseminated/late LB patients. Additional research is needed into risk factors for and causes of this syndrome. In addition, development and validation of standardized methods to assess the PTLDS case definition, easily applicable in practice, is of great importance.

Abstract Background Calculating the disease burden due to injury is complex, as it requires many methodological choices. Until now, an overview of the methodological design choices that have been made in burden of disease (BoD) studies in injury populations is not available. The aim of this systematic literature review was to identify existing injury BoD studies undertaken across Europe and to comprehensively review the methodological design choices and assumption parameters that have been made to calculate years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in these studies. Methods We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar, and Web of Science, and the grey literature supplemented by handsearching, for BoD studies. We included injury BoD studies that quantified the BoD expressed in YLL, YLD, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in countries within the European Region between early-1990 and mid-2021. Results We retrieved 2,914 results of which 48 performed an injury-specific BoD assessment. Single-country independent and Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-linked injury BoD studies were performed in 11 European countries. Approximately 79% of injury BoD studies reported the BoD by external cause-of-injury. Most independent studies used the incidence-based approach to calculate YLDs. About half of the injury disease burden studies applied disability weights (DWs) developed by the GBD study. Almost all independent injury studies have determined YLL using national life tables. Conclusions Considerable methodological variation across independent injury BoD assessments was observed; differences were mainly apparent in the design choices and assumption parameters towards injury YLD calculations, implementation of DWs, and the choice of life table for YLL calculations. Development and use of guidelines for performing and reporting of injury BoD studies is crucial to enhance transparency and comparability of injury BoD estimates across Europe and beyond.

Abstract Background Quantifying the effect of measles containing vaccine (MCV) coverage and the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) on mortality levels in populations of displaced and crisis-affected resident children is important for intervention programming in humanitarian emergencies. Methods A total of 1597 surveys containing data on under-five death rate, population status (internally displaced, refugee, or crisis-affected resident), measles containing vaccine coverage, and global acute malnutrition were extracted from the Complex Emergency Database (CE-DAT). Under-five mortality rates were dichotomized to those exceeding critical levels or otherwise. A Bayesian multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression model was used to assess the association between an under-five death rate (U5DR) exceeding this threshold and population status (i.e., internally displaced, refugees or residents), GAM prevalence (proxy for food security), and MCV coverage. Results The prevalence of GAM, MCV and U5DR were higher in internally displaced children (IDC) with values of 14.6%, 69.9% and 2.07 deaths per 10 000 per day, respectively. Refugee populations had lower average under-five mortality rate (0.89 deaths per 10 000 per day), GAM of 12.0% and the highest measles containing vaccine coverage (80.0%). In crisis-affected residents the prevalence of GAM, MCV and average U5DR are 11.1%, 65.5% and 1.20 deaths per 10 000 per day respectively. In mixed-effect logistic model taking 2 deaths per 10 000 children less than five years old per as emergency threshold (Model III); MCV (AOR = 0.66, 95% Highest Density Interval (HDI): 0.57, 0.78), GAM (AOR = 1.79, 95% HDI: 1.52, 2.12) were associated with a reduction of the odds of U5DR exceeding critical level accounting for country-specific levels of variability. The odds of U5DR exceeding critical level (2/10000/day) in crisis-affected resident children and refugees were 0.36 (95% HDI: 0.22, 0.58) and 0.25(95% HDI: 0.11, 0.55) less than amongst IDP children adjusting for GAM and MCV. In considering country specific yearly median U5DR (model IV) the odds of U5DR exceeding twice the median U5DR were associated with MCV (AOR = 0.72, 95% HDI: 0.64, 0.82), GAM (AOR = 1.53, 95%HDI: 1.34, 1.76). The odds of U5DR exceeding critical level in crisis-affected resident children was 0.30(95% HDI: 0.20, 0.45) less than IDP children, after adjusting for MCV and GAM. We found no difference between the odds of U5DR exceeding twice the country level median U5DR in the refugee population compared to the IDPs. Conclusions In this study vaccination coverage and global acute malnutrition (proxy for food security) were associated with U5DR exceeding critical level. The emergency threshold for IDPs and affected residents is significantly different and consistent across the different outcomes, whereas the result is inconsistent for IDPs and refugees. Continued improvement in measles vaccination coverage and reduction of malnutrition in humanitarian emergencies have the potential to minimize the deterioration of mortality level amongst children in emergency settings. To generate a robust understanding of the critical level of child mortality in displaced and affected resident populations, studies accounting for the impact of the duration of displacement, contextual factors in humanitarian settings, and the level of humanitarian assistance provided are needed.

Introduction Data linkage systems have proven to be a powerful tool in support of combating and managing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the interoperability and the reuse of different data sources may pose a number of technical, administrative and data security challenges.Methods and analysis This protocol aims to provide a case study for linking highly sensitive individual-level information. We describe the data linkages between health surveillance records and administrative data sources necessary to investigate social health inequalities and the long-term health impact of COVID-19 in Belgium. Data at the national institute for public health, Statistics Belgium and InterMutualistic Agency are used to develop a representative case-cohort study of 1.2 million randomly selected Belgians and 4.5 million Belgians with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis (PCR or antigen test), of which 108 211 are COVID-19 hospitalised patients (PCR or antigen test). Yearly updates are scheduled over a period of 4 years. The data set covers inpandemic and postpandemic health information between July 2020 and January 2026, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, socioeconomic indicators, healthcare use and related costs. Two main research questions will be addressed. First, can we identify socioeconomic and sociodemographic risk factors in COVID-19 testing, infection, hospitalisations and mortality? Second, what is the medium-term and long-term health impact of COVID-19 infections and hospitalisations? More specific objectives are (2a) To compare healthcare expenditure during and after a COVID-19 infection or hospitalisation; (2b) To investigate long-term health complications or premature mortality after a COVID-19 infection or hospitalisation; and (2c) To validate the administrative COVID-19 reimbursement nomenclature. The analysis plan includes the calculation of absolute and relative risks using survival analysis methods.Ethics and dissemination This study involves human participants and was approved by Ghent University hospital ethics committee: reference B.U.N. 1432020000371 and the Belgian Information Security Committee: reference Beraadslaging nr. 22/014 van 11 January 2022, available via https://www.ehealth.fgov.be/ehealthplatform/file/view/AX54CWc4Fbc33iE1rY5a?filename=22-014-n034-HELICON-project.pdf. Dissemination activities include peer-reviewed publications, a webinar series and a project website.The pseudonymised data are derived from administrative and health sources. Acquiring informed consent would require extra information on the subjects. The research team is prohibited from gaining additional knowledge on the study subjects by the Belgian Information Security Committee’s interpretation of the Belgian privacy framework.

Abstract Background Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) combine the impact of morbidity and mortality and can enable comprehensive, and comparable, assessments of direct and indirect health harms due to COVID-19. Our aim was to estimate DALYs directly due to COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020; and contextualise its population impact relative to other causes of disease and injury. Methods National deaths and daily case data were used. Deaths were based on underlying and contributory causes recorded on death certificates. We calculated DALYs based on the COVID-19 consensus model and methods outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network. DALYs were presented as a range, using a sensitivity analysis based on Years of Life Lost estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths. All COVID-19 estimates were for 2020. Results In 2020, estimates of COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland ranged from 96,500 to 108,200. Direct COVID-19 DALYs were substantial enough to be framed as the second leading cause of disease and injury, with only ischaemic heart disease having a larger impact on population health. Mortality contributed 98% of total DALYs. Conclusions The direct population health impact of COVID-19 has been very substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, COVID-19 developed from a single identified case in early 2020 to a condition with an impact in Scotland second only to ischaemic heart disease. Periodic estimation of DALYs during 2021, and beyond, will provide indications of the impact of DALYs averted due to the national rollout of the vaccination programme and other continued mitigation efforts, although new variants may pose significant challenges.

Abstract Background Because of the loss of chloroquine (CQ) effectiveness, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)’s malaria treatment policy replaced CQ by sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine (SP) as first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in 2003, which in turn was replaced by artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) in 2005. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends monitoring of anti-malarial drug resistance every 2 years. The study aimed to provide baseline data for biennial molecular surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance by comparing data from a study conducted in 2019 to previously published data from a similar study conducted in 2017 in the DRC. Methods From July to November 2019, a cross-sectional study was conducted in ten sites which were previously selected for a similar study conducted in 2017 across the DRC. P. falciparum malaria was diagnosed by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or by microscopy and dried blood samples (DBS) were taken from patients who had a positive test. Segments of interest in pfcrt and pfk13 genes were amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing. Results Out of 1087 enrolled patients, 906 (83.3%) were PCR-confirmed for P. falciparum. Like in the 2017-study, none of the mutations known to be associated with Artemisinine (ART) resistance in Southeast Asia was detected. However, non-synonymous (NS) mutations with unknown functions were observed among which, A578S was detected in both 2017 and 2019-studies. The overall prevalence of pfcrt-K76T mutation that confers CQ-resistance was 22.7% in 2019-study compared to 28.5% in 2017-study (p-value = 0.069), but there was high variability between sites in the two studies. Like in 2017-study, the pfcrt 72–76 SVMNT haplotype associated with resistance to amodiaquine was not detected. Conclusion The study reported, within 2 years, the non-presence of molecular markers currently known to be associated with resistance to ART and to AQ in P. falciparum isolated in the DRC. However, the presence of polymorphisms with as-yet unknown functions was observed, requiring further characterization. Moreover, an overall decrease in the prevalence of CQ-resistance marker was observed in the DRC, but this prevalence remained highly variable from region to region.

Abstract Background The importance of assessing and monitoring the health status of a population has grown in the last decades. Consistent and high quality data on the morbidity and mortality impact of a disease represent the key element for this assessment. Being increasingly used in global and national burden of diseases (BoD) studies, the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is an indicator that combines healthy life years lost due to living with disease (Years Lived with Disability; YLD) and due to dying prematurely (Years of Life Lost; YLL). As a step towards a comprehensive national burden of disease study, this study aims to estimate the non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium using national data. Methods We estimated the Belgian cancer burden from 2004 to 2019 in terms of YLD, using national population-based cancer registry data and international disease models. We developed a microsimulation model to translate incidence- into prevalence-based estimates, and used expert elicitation to integrate the long-term impact of increased disability due to surgical treatment. Results The age-standardized non-fatal burden of cancer increased from 2004 to 2019 by 6 and 3% respectively for incidence- and prevalence-based YLDs. In 2019, in Belgium, breast cancer had the highest morbidity impact among women, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Among men, prostate cancer had the highest morbidity impact, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Between 2004 and 2019, non-melanoma skin cancer significantly increased for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 49 to 111 for men and from 15 to 44 for women. Important decreases were seen for colorectal cancer for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 105 to 84 for men and from 66 to 58 for women. Conclusions Breast and prostate cancers represent the greatest proportion of cancer morbidity, while for both sexes the morbidity burden of skin cancer has shown an important increase from 2004 onwards. Integrating the current study in the Belgian national burden of disease study will allow monitoring of the burden of cancer over time, highlighting new trends and assessing the impact of public health policies.

Abstract Background A number of tick-borne pathogens circulate in the Belgian tick population in addition to the causative agent of Lyme borreliosis. However, so far, only a few patients with tick-borne diseases other than Lyme borreliosis have been reported in Belgium. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of other human tick-borne infections in Belgium and their possible clinical manifestation. Methods Patients with fever (> 37.5 °C) after a tick bite or those with erythema migrans (EM) were included in the study. EDTA-blood samples were screened for the presence of DNA from Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Neoehrlichia mikurensis, spotted fever group rickettsiae (genus Rickettsia), Babesia spp., Bartonella spp., Spiroplasma ixodetis and tick-borne encephalitis virus, using multiplex PCR methods. A questionnaire on, among others, demographics and clinical symptoms, was also filled in. Results Over a period of 3 years, 119 patients with EM and 14 patients with fever after a recent tick bite were enrolled in the study. Three samples initially tested positive for N. mikurensis by quantitative PCR (qPCR), but the results could not be confirmed by other PCR methods, and repetition of the DNA extraction procedure and qPCR test was not successful. The qPCR test results for the other tick-borne pathogens were negative. Conclusions In general, only a few patients with fever after a tick bite could be identified. Although no tick-borne pathogens were detected, their occurrence cannot be excluded based on the limited number of patients and the limitations inherent to current methodologies. This study underscores the possibility of false-positive PCR results and the necessity for the development of multiple independent tools for the sensitive and specific detection of emerging tick-borne pathogens. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Early warning tools are crucial for the timely application of intervention strategies and the mitigation of the adverse health, social and economic effects associated with outbreaks of epidemic potential such as COVID-19. This paper introduces, the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), a new, conceptually simple, early warning tool for oncoming epidemic waves. EVI is based on the volatility of newly reported cases per unit of time, ideally per day, and issues an early warning when the volatility change rate exceeds a threshold. Data on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are used to demonstrate the use of EVI. Results from the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and New York State are presented here, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, from January 22, 2020, until April 13, 2021. Live daily updated predictions for all world countries and each of the United States of America are publicly available online. For Italy, the overall sensitivity for EVI was 0.82 (95% Confidence Intervals: 0.75; 0.89) and the specificity was 0.91 (0.88; 0.94). For New York, the corresponding values were 0.55 (0.47; 0.64) and 0.88 (0.84; 0.91). Consecutive issuance of early warnings is a strong indicator of main epidemic waves in any country or state. EVI’s application to data from the current COVID-19 pandemic revealed a consistent and stable performance in terms of detecting new waves. The application of EVI to other epidemics and syndromic surveillance tasks in combination with existing early warning systems will enhance our ability to act swiftly and thereby enhance containment of outbreaks.

Introduction There is growing evidence that the impact of COVID-19 crisis may be stronger for individuals with multimorbidity, frailty and lower socioeconomic status. Existing reviews focus on few, mainly short-term effects of COVID-19 illness and patients with single chronic disease. Information is also largely missing for population representative samples.Applying population-based approach, the systematic reviews will have two objectives: (1) to evaluate the aetiological roles of frailty, multimorbidity and socioeconomic status on SARS-CoV-2 infection probability, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation and COVID-19 related mortality among general population and (2) to investigate the prognostic roles of frailty, multimorbidity and socioeconomic characteristics on the risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, COVID-19 mortality, functioning, quality of life, disability, mental health and work absence.Methods and analysis For this ongoing work, four databases were searched: PubMed, Embase, WHO COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease and PsycINFO, for the period between January 2020 and April 7 2021. Peer-reviewed published literature in English and all types of population-based studies will be considered. Studies using standard tools to assess multimorbidity such as disease count, comorbidity indices or disease combinations will be retained, as well as studies with standard scales and scores for frailty or measurement of a socioeconomic gradient. Initial search included 10 139 articles, 411 for full-text reading. Results will be summarised by risk factor, objective and outcome. The feasibility of meta-analysis will be determined by the findings and will aim to better understand uncertainties of the results. Quality of studies will be assessed using standardised scales.Ethics and dissemination The study will be based on published evidence, and it is exempt from the ethical approval. This work is part of the Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) project. Dissemination of the results will imply conference presentation, submission for scientific publication and PHIRI project report.PROSPERO registration number CRD42021249444.

Abstract Background This study aimed to estimate the socio-economic costs of uncomplicated malaria and to explore health care-seeking behaviours that are likely to influence these costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country ranked worldwide as the second most affected by malaria. Methods In 2017, a cross-sectional survey included patients with uncomplicated malaria in 64 healthcare facilities from 10 sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) in the DRC. A standard questionnaire was used to assess health care-seeking behaviours of patients. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) and disutility weights (DW) of illness were evaluated by using the EuroQol Group’s descriptive system (EQ-5D-3L) and its visual analogue scale (EQ VAS). Malaria costs were estimated from a patient’s perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) evaluated the uncertainty around the cost estimates. Generalized regression models were fitted to assess the effect of potential predictive factors on the time lost and the DW during illness. Results In total, 1080 patients (age: 13.1 ± 14 years; M/F ratio: 1.1) were included. The average total costs amounted to US$ 36.3 [95% CI 35.5–37.2] per malaria episode, including US$ 16.7 [95% CI 16.3–17.1] as direct costs and US$ 19.6 [95% CI 18.9–20.3] indirect costs. During care seeking, economically active patients and their relatives lost respectively 3.3 ± 1.8 and 3.4 ± 2.1 working days. This time loss occurred mostly at the pre-hospital stage and was the parameter associated the most with the uncertainty around malaria cost estimates. Patients self-rated an average 0.36 ± 0.2 DW and an average 0.62 ± 0.3 EQ-5D index score per episode. A lack of health insurance coverage (896 out of 1080; 82.9%) incurred substantially higher costs, lower quality of life, and heavier DW while leading to longer time lost during illness. Residing in rural areas incurred a disproportionally higher socioeconomic burden of uncomplicated malaria with longer time lost due to illness and limited access to health insurance mechanisms. Conclusion Uncomplicated malaria is associated with high economic costs of care in the DRC. Efforts to reduce the cost-of-illness should target time lost at the pre-hospital stage and social disparities in the population, while reinforcing measures for malaria control in the country.

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting nations globally, but with an impact exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variation at the sub-national level. Identifying and disentangling the drivers of resulting hospitalisation incidence at the local scale is key to predict, mitigate and manage epidemic surges, but also to develop targeted measures. However, this type of analysis is often not possible because of the lack of spatially-explicit health data and spatial uncertainties associated with infection. Methods To overcome these limitations, we propose an analytical framework to investigate potential drivers of the spatio–temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence when data are only available at the hospital level. Specifically, the approach is based on the delimitation of hospital catchment areas, which allows analysing associations between hospitalisation incidence and spatial or temporal covariates. We illustrate and apply our analytical framework to Belgium, a country heavily impacted by two COVID-19 epidemic waves in 2020, both in terms of mortality and hospitalisation incidence. Results Our spatial analyses reveal an association between the hospitalisation incidence and the local density of nursing home residents, which confirms the important impact of COVID-19 in elderly communities of Belgium. Our temporal analyses further indicate a pronounced seasonality in hospitalisation incidence associated with the seasonality of weather variables. Taking advantage of these associations, we discuss the feasibility of predictive models based on machine learning to predict future hospitalisation incidence. Conclusion Our reproducible analytical workflow allows performing spatially-explicit analyses of data aggregated at the hospital level and can be used to explore potential drivers and dynamic of COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence at regional or national scales.

Abstract Background The national policy for malaria treatment of the Democratic Republic of Congo recommends two first-line artemisinin-based combinations for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria: artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine. This study investigated the presence of markers associated with resistance to the current first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in isolates of Plasmodium falciparum from treatment failure patients in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods From November 2018 to November 2019, dried blood spots were taken from patients returning to health centres for fever within 28 days after an initial malaria treatment in six sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Programme across Democratic Republic of Congo. The new episode of malaria was first detected by a rapid diagnostic test and then confirmed by a real-time PCR assay to define treatment failure. Fragments of interest in pfk13 and pfcrt genes were amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing and the Pfmdr1 gene copy number was determined by a TaqMan real-time PCR assay. Results Out of 474 enrolled patients, 364 (76.8%) were confirmed positive by PCR for a new episode of P. falciparum malaria, thus considered as treatment failure. Of the 325 P. falciparum isolates obtained from 364 P. falciparum-positive patients and successfully sequenced in the pfk13-propeller gene, 7 (2.2%) isolates carried non-synonymous mutations, among which 3 have been previously reported (N498I, N554K and A557S) and 4 had not yet been reported (F506L, E507V, D516E and G538S). Of the 335 isolates successfully sequenced in the pfcrt gene, 139 (41.5%) harboured the K76T mutation known to be associated with chloroquine resistance. The SVMNT haplotype associated with resistance to amodiaquine was not found. None of the isolates carried an increased copy number of the pfmdr1 gene among the 322 P. falciparum isolates successfully analysed. Conclusion No molecular markers currently known to be associated with resistance to the first-line ACT in use were detected in isolates of P. falciparum from treatment failure patients. Regular monitoring through in vivo drug efficacy and molecular studies must continue to ensure the effectiveness of malaria treatment in Democratic Republic of Congo.

Abstract Background Therapeutic ineffectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) increases the risk of malaria-related morbidity and mortality, and raises healthcare costs. Yet, little has been done to promote the pharmacovigilance (PV) of ACT ineffectiveness in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Uganda. This study aimed to determine the extent and associated factors of the past 6 months reporting of suspected or confirmed ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness by healthcare professionals (HCPs), and difficulties and potential solutions to the PV of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness. Methods Survey of 685 HCPs conducted using a self-administered questionnaire from June to July 2018 in a nationally representative sample of public and private health facilities in Uganda. HCPs disclosed if they had spontaneously reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to appropriate authorities in the previous 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify determinants of past 6-months, HCP-reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness. Results One in five (20%, 137/685; 95% CI 17–23%) HCPs reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to an appropriate authority in the previous 6 months. HCPs commonly reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to immediate supervisors (72%, 106/147), mostly verbally only (80%, 109/137); none had ever submitted a written report of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to Uganda’s National Pharmacovigilance Centre. Common difficulties of reporting ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness were: unavailability of reporting procedures (31%, 129/421), poor follow-up of treated patients (22%, 93/421) and absence of reporting tools (16%, 68/421). Factors associated with reporting ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 6 months were: hospital-status (vs other; OR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.41–4.21), HCPs aged under 25 years (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.29–3.76), suspicion of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 4 weeks (OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.29–3.92), receipt of patient-complaint(s) of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 4 weeks (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.62–5.12) and HCPs from northern (vs central; OR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.28–0.93) and western (vs central; OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.17–0.77) parts of Uganda. Conclusion One in five HCPs reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness, mostly verbally to supervisors. The existing adverse drug reaction (ADR)-reporting infrastructure could be leveraged to promote the PV of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness.

Abstract Background Case management is one of the principal strategies for malaria control. This study aimed to estimate the economic costs of uncomplicated malaria case management and explore the influence of health-seeking behaviours on those costs. Methods A knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was applied to 680 households of fifteen communities in Mazan-Loreto in March 2017, then a socio-economic survey was conducted in September 2017 among 161 individuals with confirmed uncomplicated malaria in the past 3 months. Total costs per episode were estimated from both provider (Ministry of Health, MoH) and patient perspectives. Direct costs were estimated using a standard costing estimation procedure, while the indirect costs considered the loss of incomes among patients, substitute labourers and companions due to illness in terms of the monthly minimum wage. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the uncertainty of the average cost per episode. Results The KAP survey showed that most individuals (79.3%) that had malaria went to a health facility for a diagnosis and treatment, 2.7% received those services from community health workers, and 8% went to a drugstore or were self-treated at home. The average total cost per episode in the Mazan district was US$ 161. The cost from the provider’s perspective was US$ 30.85 per episode while from the patient’s perspective the estimated cost was US$ 131 per episode. The average costs per Plasmodium falciparum episode (US$ 180) were higher than those per Plasmodium vivax episode (US$ 156) due to longer time lost from work by patients with P. falciparum infections (22.2 days) than by patients with P. vivax infections (17.0 days). The delayed malaria diagnosis (after 48 h of the onset of symptoms) was associated with the time lost from work due to illness (adjusted mean ratio 1.8; 95% CI 1.3, 2.6). The average cost per malaria episode was most sensitive to the uncertainty around the lost productivity cost due to malaria. Conclusions Despite the provision of free malaria case management by MoH, there is delay in seeking care and the costs of uncomplicated malaria are mainly borne by the families. These costs are not well perceived by the society and the substantial financial impact of the disease can be frequently undervalued in public policy planning.

Abstract Background The loss of chloroquine (CQ) effectiveness has led to its withdrawal from national policies as a first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in several endemic countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The K76T mutation on the pfcrt gene has been identified as a marker of CQ resistance and the SVMNT haplotype in codons 72–76 on the same gene has been associated with resistance to amodiaquine (AQ). In the DRC, the prevalence of K76T has decreased from 100% in 2000 to 63.9% in 2014. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of K76T mutations in circulating strains of Plasmodium falciparum, 16 years after CQ withdrawal in the DRC and to investigate the presence of the SVMNT haplotype. Methods In 2017, ten geographical sites across the DRC were selected. Dried blood samples were collected from patients attending health centres. Malaria was first detected by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) available on site (SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf or CareStart Malaria Pf) or thick blood smear and then confirmed by a P. falciparum species-specific real-time PCR assay. A pfcrt gene segment containing a fragment that encodes amino acids at positions 72–76 was amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing. Results A total of 1070 patients were enrolled. Of the 806 PCR-confirmed P. falciparum positive samples, 764 were successfully sequenced. The K76T mutation was detected in 218 samples (28.5%; 95% CI 25.4%–31.9%), mainly (96%) with the CVIET haplotype. Prevalence of CQ resistance marker was unequally distributed across the country, ranging from 1.5% in Fungurume to 89.5% in Katana. The SVMNT haplotype, related to AQ resistance, was not detected. Conclusion Overall, the frequency of the P. falciparum CQ resistance marker has decreased significantly and no resistance marker to AQ was detected in the DRC in 2017. However, the between regions variability of CQ resistance remains high in the country. Further studies are needed for continuous monitoring of the CQ resistance level for its prospective re-use in malaria management. The absence of the AQ resistance marker is in line with the use of this drug in the current DRC malaria treatment policy.

Abstract Background Efficient testing to identify poor quality artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is important to optimize efforts to control and eliminate malaria. Healthcare professionals interact with both ACT and malaria patients they treat and hence could observe, first-hand, suspect poor quality artemisinin-based combinations linked to poor malaria treatment outcomes and the factors associated with inappropriate use or treatment failure. Methods A cross-sectional study of 685 HCP perspectives about the efficacy of ACT between June and July 2018 at selected health facilities in Uganda. Medicine samples were obtained from the seven regions of Uganda and tested for quality using the Germany Pharma Health Fund™ minilabs. Results The average age of the 685 respondents was 30 (SD = 7.4) years. There was an almost equal distribution between male and female respondents (51:49), respectively. Seventy percent (n = 480) were diploma holders and the nurses contributed to half (49%, n = 334) of the study population. Sixty-one percent of the HCPs reported having ever encountered ACT failures while treating uncomplicated malaria. Nineteen percent of HCPs thought that dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine gave the most satisfactory patient treatment outcomes, while 80% HCPs thought that artemether/lumefantrine gave the least satisfactory patient treatment outcomes, possibly due to dosing schedule and pill burden. Healthcare professionals from the Central region (OR = 3.0, CI 0.3–1.0; P = 0.0001), Eastern region (OR = 5.4, CI 2.9–9.8; P = 0.0001) and Northern region (OR = 5.3, CI 2.9–9.9; P = 0.0001) had a higher chance of encountering ACT failure in 4 weeks prior to the survey as compared to those from the western region. Healthcare professionals from private health facilities also had higher chances of encountering ACT failures in past 4 weeks as compared to those from public health facilities (OR = 2.7, CI 1.7–3.9; P = 0.0001). All 192 samples passed the quality screening tests. The random sample of 10% of all samples randomly obtained by the laboratory staff also passed the chemical content analysis and dissolution tests. Conclusion ACT medicines are widely available over-the-counter to the public and it is very difficult to report and monitor a decrease in efficacy or treatment failure. The perspectives of HCPs on treatment failure or lack of efficacy may potentially guide optimization efforts of sampling methodologies for the quality survey of ACT medicines.

Beside diagnostic uncertainties due to the lack of a perfect gold standard test for Helicobacter pylori infection, the diagnosis and the prevalence estimation for this infection encounter particular challenges in Africa including limited diagnostic tools and specific genetic background. We developed and evaluated the accuracy of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) system tailored for H. pylori genetics in Africa (HpAfr-ELISA). Strains belonging to main genetic populations infecting Africans were exploited as sources for whole-cell antigens to establish in-house the ELISA system. A phase II unmatched case-control study explored the diagnostic accuracy of the HpAfr-ELISA using a training set of samples collected from dyspeptic patients from Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) who had been tested with invasive standard tests (i.e., histology, culture, and rapid urease test) in 2017. Then the assay was cross-validated through a community-based survey assessing the prevalence of H. pylori and associated factors in 425 adults from Mbujimayi, DRC in 2018. Bayesian inferences were used to deal with statistical uncertainties of estimates (true prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity) in the study population. At its optimal cut-off-value 20.2 U/mL, the assay achieved an estimated sensitivity of 97.6% (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 89.2; 99.9%) and specificity of 90.5% (95%CrI: 78.6; 98.5). Consistent outcomes obtained at repeated tests attested the robustness of the assay (negative and positive agreements always > 70%). The true prevalence of H. pylori was estimated 53.8% [95%CrI: 42.8; 62.7%]. Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] > 1.0 [95% confidence interval (CI): > 1.0; 1.1]; p

Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa, socioeconomic factors such as place of residence, mother’s educational level, or household wealth, are strongly associated with risk factors of under-five mortality (U5M) such as health behavior or exposure to diseases and injuries. The aim of the study was to assess the relative contribution of four known socioeconomic factors to the variability in U5M in sub-Saharan countries. Methods The study was based on birth histories from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 32 sub-Saharan countries in 2010–2016. The relative contribution of sex of the child, place of residence, mother’s educational level, and household wealth to the variability in U5M was assessed using a regression-based decomposition of a Gini-type index. Results The Gini index – measuring the variability in U5M related to the four socioeconomic factors – varied from 0.006 (95%CI: 0.001–0.010) in Liberia 2013 to 0.034 (95%CI: 0.029–0.039) in Côte d’Ivoire 2011/12. The main contributors to the Gini index (with a relative contribution higher than 25%) were different across countries: mother’s educational level in 13 countries, sex of the child in 12 countries, household wealth in 11 countries, and place of residence in 8 countries (in some countries, more than one main contributor was identified). Conclusions Factors related to socioeconomic status exert varied effects on the variability in U5M in sub-Saharan African countries. The findings provide evidence in support of prioritizing intersectoral interventions aiming at improving child survival in all subgroups of a population.

Abstract Background The slope (SII) and relative (RII) indices of inequality are commonly recommended to monitor health inequality policies. As an upwards shift of the educational level distribution (ELD) can be part of those policies, we examine how such a shift affects the SII, the RII and the population attributable fraction (PAF). Methods We simulated 632 distributions of 4 educational levels (ELs) by varying the share (p1 to p4) of each EL, with constant mortality rates (MR) and calculated the corresponding RII, SII and PAF. Second, we decomposed the effect on the three indices of a change affecting both the ELD and the MRs, into the contributions of each component. Results RIIs and SIIs sharply increase with p4 at fixed p1 values and evolve as reversed U-curves for p1 changing in complement to p4. The RII reaches a maximum, at much higher p4 values than the SII. PAFs monotonically decrease when p4 increases. Conclusion If improving the educational attainment is part of a policy, an upwards shift of EL should be assessed as a progress; however the RII, and to a lesser extent the SII, frequently translate an increased EL4 share as a worsening. We warn against the use of SII and RII for monitoring inequality-tackling policies at changing socio-economic structures. Rather, we recommend to complement the assessment of changes in absolute and relative pairwise differentials, with changes in PAF and in the socio-economic group shares.

Abstract Background In Vietnam, few studies have determined the epidemiological status of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women and no routine prenatal screening is in place. This study was conducted to evaluate the seroprevalence of this zoonotic parasitic infection in pregnant women in Northern Vietnam and to assess the association with awareness, risk factors and congenital toxoplasmosis. Methods Approximately 800 pregnant women were included in the study from two hospitals, one in Hanoi and one in Thai Binh province, which is known to have a dense cat population. Serological immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) detection was performed to estimate the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis and sero-incidence of maternal and congenital toxoplasmosis. In addition, a survey was conducted about awareness, clinical history, presentation of signs and symptoms relating to toxoplasmosis and to detect biologically plausible and socio-demographic risk factors associated with toxoplasmosis. Associations with seroprevalence were assessed using univariable and multivariable analysis. Results The mean IgG seroprevalence after the full diagnostic process was 4.5% (95% confidence interval(CI): 2.7–7.0) and 5.8% (95% CI: 3.7–8.6) in Hanoi and Thai Binh hospital, respectively, and included one seroconversion diagnosed in Thai Binh hospital. Only 2.0% of the pregnant women in Hanoi hospital and 3.3% in Thai Binh hospital had heard about toxoplasmosis before this study. Conclusion Since the percentage of seronegative, and thus susceptible, pregnant women was high and the awareness was low, we suggest to distribute information about toxoplasmosis and its prevention among women of child bearing age. Furthermore, future studies are recommended to investigate why such a low seroprevalence was seen in pregnant women in Northern Vietnam compared to other countries in South East Asia and globally.

Abstract Background In malaria endemic countries, asymptomatic cases constitute an important reservoir of infections sustaining transmission. Estimating the burden of the asymptomatic population and identifying areas with elevated risk is important for malaria control in Burkina Faso. This study analysed the spatial distribution of asymptomatic malaria infection among children under 5 in 24 health districts in Burkina Faso and identified the determinants of this distribution. Methods The data used in this study were collected in a baseline survey on “evaluation of the impact of pay for performance on the quality of care” conducted in 24 health districts in Burkina Faso, between October 2013 and March 2014. This survey involved 7844 households and 1387 community health workers. A Bayesian hierarchical logistic model that included spatial dependence and covariates was implemented to identify the determinants of asymptomatic malaria infection. The posterior probability distribution of a parameter from the model was summarized using odds ratio (OR) and 95% credible interval (95% CI). Results The overall prevalence of asymptomatic malaria infection in children under 5 years of age was estimated at 38.2%. However, significant variation was observed between districts ranging from 11.1% in the district of Barsalgho to 77.8% in the district of Gaoua. Older children (48–59 vs

Introduction Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most common sexually transmitted infection (STI) worldwide. Despite recommendations for HPV vaccination of young women from health authorities, parental concerns were raised whether vaccination could induce unsafe sexual behaviour in young women. Therefore, the primary aim of this study was to investigate if HPV vaccination in healthcare seeking adult women in Luxembourg was associated with unsafe sexual behaviour. Methods Seven hundred twenty-nine women (mean age = 22.5; range 18–43 years) were recruited either at Luxembourg family planning centres or at private gynaecology practices. All participants completed a questionnaire on vaccination status and sexual behaviour. Poisson and logistic regressions were used to study the association between sexual behaviour and vaccination status (N = 538). Both models were restricted to women younger than 26 years, since the first cohort being vaccinated would be 25 years old at the time of sampling. Assortativity of sexual mixing by age was also assessed for further transmission modelling for women

Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) have been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as first-line treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) malaria since 2005 in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and a regular surveillance of the ACT efficacy is required to ensure the treatment effectiveness. Mutations in the propeller domain of the pfk13 gene were identified as molecular markers of artemisinin resistance (ART-R). This study investigated the pfk13-propeller gene polymorphism in clinical isolates of P. falciparum collected in the DRC. In 2017, ten geographical sites across DRC were selected for a cross-sectional study that was conducted first in Kinshasa from January to March, then in the nine other sites from September to December. Dried blood samples were collected from patients attending health centers for fever where diagnosis of Malaria was first made by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) available on site (SD Bioline malaria Ag Pf or CareStart Malaria Pf) or by thick blood smear and then confirmed by a P. falciparum real-time PCR assay. A pfk13-propeller segment containing a fragment that codes for amino acids at positions 427-595 was amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing. In total, 1070 patients were enrolled in the study. Real-time PCR performed confirmed the initial diagnosis of P. falciparum infection in 806 samples (75.3%; 95% CI: 72.6%- 77.9%). Of the 717 successfully sequenced P. falciparum isolates, 710 (99.0%; 95% CI: 97.9% - 99.6) were wild-type genotypes and 7 (1.0%; 95% CI: 0.4% - 2.1%) carried non-synonymous (NS) mutations in pfk13-propeller including 2 mutations (A578S and V534A) previously detected and 2 other (M472I and A569T) not yet detected in the DRC. Mutations associated with ART-R in Southeast Asia were not observed in DRC. However, the presence of other mutations in pfk13-propeller gene calls for further investigations to assess their implication in drug resistance.

The burden of human diseases in populations, or for an individual, is frequently estimated in terms of one of a number of Health Adjusted Life Years (HALYs). The Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is a widely accepted HALY metric and is used by the World Health Organization and the Global Burden of Disease studies. Many human diseases are of animal origin and often cause ill health and production losses in domestic animals. The economic losses due to disease in animals are usually estimated in monetary terms. The monetary impact on animal health is not compatible with HALY approaches used to measure the impact on human health. To estimate the societal burden of zoonotic diseases that have substantial human and animal disease burden we propose methodology which can be accommodated within the DALY framework. Monetary losses due to the animal disease component of a zoonotic disease can be converted to an equivalent metric using a local gross national income per capita deflator. This essentially gives animal production losses a time trade-off for human life years. This is the time required to earn the income needed to replace that financial loss. This can then be assigned a DALY equivalent, termed animal loss equivalents (ALE), and added to the DALY associated with human ill health to give a modified DALY. This is referred to as the “zDALY”. ALEs could also be estimated using willingness-to-pay for animal health or survey tools to estimate the replacement time value for animals with high societal or emotional value (for example pets) that cannot be calculated directly using monetary worth. Thus the zDALY estimates the impact of a zoonotic disease to animal and human health. The losses due to the animal disease component of the modified DALY are straightforward to calculate. A number of worked examples such as echinococcosis, brucellosis, Q fever and cysticercosis from a diverse spectrum of countries with different levels of economic development illustrate the use of the zDALY indicator. Keywords: Disability-adjusted life years, Zoonotic diseases, Societal impact, Burden of disease, Animal disease losses

Abstract Background Malaria is one of the major causes of childhood death in sub-Saharan countries. A reliable estimation of malaria prevalence is important to guide and monitor progress toward control and elimination. The aim of the study was to estimate the true prevalence of malaria in children under five in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Kenya, using a Bayesian modelling framework that combined in a novel way malaria data from national household surveys with external information about the sensitivity and specificity of the malaria diagnostic methods used in those surveys—i.e., rapid diagnostic tests and light microscopy. Methods Data were used from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DHS 2013–2014), Uganda (MIS 2014–2015) and Kenya (MIS 2015), where information on infection status using rapid diagnostic tests and/or light microscopy was available for 13,573 children. True prevalence was estimated using a Bayesian model that accounted for the conditional dependence between the two diagnostic methods, and the uncertainty of their sensitivities and specificities obtained from expert opinion. Results The estimated true malaria prevalence was 20% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17%–23%) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 22% (95% UI 9–32%) in Uganda and 1% (95% UI 0–3%) in Kenya. According to the model estimations, rapid diagnostic tests had a satisfactory sensitivity and specificity, and light microscopy had a variable sensitivity, but a satisfactory specificity. Adding reported history of fever in the previous 14 days as a third diagnostic method to the model did not affect model estimates, highlighting the poor performance of this indicator as a malaria diagnostic. Conclusions In the absence of a gold standard test, Bayesian models can assist in the optimal estimation of the malaria burden, using individual results from several tests and expert opinion about the performance of those tests.

In a time of increasing threats and decreasing financial resources, monitoring and controlling all possible foodborne hazards at the same time and to the same extent has become more challenging than ever. Therefore, attention is increasingly being paid to the so-called “risk ranking” methods that enable decision makers to focus on the most important foodborne hazards — even when time is limited and knowledge incomplete. In this review paper, we provide an overview of the most common quantitative methods and metrics used for ranking the risks associated with foodborne parasites and present the state of the art on risk ranking exercises for foodborne parasites.A number of risk ranking metrics and methods are available, ranging from simple approaches that can be used to assess the health or economic impact of a foodborne parasitic disease, to more complicated but more comprehensive multi-criteria assessments. For health impact assessment, measures of population health such as disease occurrence and number of deaths; Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) measuring the healthy life years lost; and Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) measuring the number of life years lived in optimal health, are described. For economic impact assessment, applied approaches that measure the cost-of-illness from a societal perspective and stated preference methods are outlined. Finally, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), which can be used to integrate multiple metrics and criteria into a single ranking, is described.These risk ranking methods for foodborne parasites are increasingly performed to aid priority setting at global, regional, and national levels. As different stakeholders have their own prioritization objectives and beliefs, the outcome of such exercises is necessarily context-dependent. Therefore, when designing a risk ranking exercise for foodborne parasites, it is important to choose the metrics and methods, as well as what to rank, in the light of the predefined context of the question being addressed and the target audience. Keywords: Cost-of-illness, Disability-adjusted life years, Foodborne parasites, Multi-criteria decision analysis, Priority setting

Abstract Malaria has steadily increased in the Peruvian Amazon over the last five years. This study aimed to determine the parasite prevalence and micro-geographical heterogeneity of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia in communities of the Peruvian Amazon. Four cross-sectional active case detection surveys were conducted between May and July 2015 in four riverine communities in Mazan district. Analysis of 2785 samples of 820 individuals nested within 154 households for Plasmodium parasitaemia was carried out using light microscopy and qPCR. The spatio-temporal distribution of Plasmodium parasitaemia, dominated by P. vivax, was shown to cluster at both household and community levels. Of enrolled individuals, 47% had at least one P. vivax parasitaemia and 10% P. falciparum, by qPCR, both of which were predominantly sub-microscopic and asymptomatic. Spatial analysis detected significant clustering in three communities. Our findings showed that communities at small-to-moderate spatial scales differed in P. vivax parasite prevalence, and multilevel Poisson regression models showed that such differences were influenced by factors such as age, education, and location of households within high-risk clusters, as well as factors linked to a local micro-geographic context, such as travel and occupation. Complex transmission patterns were found to be related to human mobility among communities in the same micro-basin.

Abstract Background In Belgium, different routine surveillance systems are in place to follow-up Lyme borreliosis trends. However, accurate data on the disease and monetary burden for the different clinical manifestations are lacking. Despite recommended antibiotic treatment, a proportion of Lyme patients report persisting aspecific symptoms for six months or more (e.g. fatigue, widespread musculoskeletal pain, cognitive difficulties), a syndrome now named “post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome” (PTLDS). Controversy exists on the cause, incidence and severity of PTLDS. This study aims to estimate the incidence of PTLDS in patients with Lyme borreliosis and to quantify the disease burden and economic costs associated with the different clinical manifestations of Lyme borreliosis in Belgium. Methods The project is a prospective cohort study in which about 600 patients with an erythema migrans and 100 patients with disseminated Lyme borreliosis will be followed up. Questionnaires, including the SF-36 vitality and pain subscale, the Cognitive Failure Questionnaire and the EQ-5D-5L, will be used to collect information on acute and persisting symptoms and the impact on quality of life. Symptom frequency and severity will be compared with self-reported pre-Lyme health status, a control group and existing Belgian population norms. Additionally, information on the associated costs and possible risk factors for the development of PTLDS will be collected. Discussion A study of the health burden will allow evaluation of the relative importance of Lyme borreliosis in Belgium and information on the economic cost will help to formulate cost-effective measures. There are only few prospective studies conducted estimating the incidence of PTLDS and even though discussion exists about the prevalence of subjective symptoms in the general population, a control group of non-Lyme borreliosis participants has often not been included.

Abstract Background In Vietnam, no systematic prenatal toxoplasmosis screening is in place, and only few studies have assessed the prevalence and importance of this zoonotic parasite infection. In addition, no studies have been conducted to assess the risk factors associated with toxoplasmosis. This study protocol was developed to determine the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women in Hanoi and Thai Binh, Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the association with risk factors and congenital toxoplasmosis. The protocol was developed in a way that it could potentially evolve into a countrywide prenatal diagnosis and prevention program, with the main focus on primary prevention. Methods The collaborating gynaecologists will invite eligible pregnant women attending antenatal care for the first time to participate in the study. At first consult, information about toxoplasmosis and its prevention will be provided. All participants will be asked to fill in a questionnaire, which is designed to analyse socio-demographic and biologically plausible risk factors associated with toxoplasmosis, and blood samples will be collected to determine the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women. In case there is suspicion of a primary infection during pregnancy, the concerned women will be followed-up by the gynaecologists according to a predefined protocol. Every participant will be informed on her serological status, risk factors and prevention measures and is offered appropriate medical information and medical follow-up if required. Discussion The hypothesis is that congenital toxoplasmosis is an important but currently under-diagnosed public health problem in Vietnam. This study can strengthen sustainable control of toxoplasmosis in Vietnam, provide a protocol for prenatal diagnosis, boost overall awareness, improve the knowledge about toxoplasmosis prevention and can be essential for evidence-based health policy.

Abstract Background The global decline of malaria burden and goals for elimination has led to an increased interest in the fine-scale epidemiology of malaria. Micro-geographic heterogeneity of malaria infection could have implications for designing targeted small-area interventions. Methods Two-year longitudinal cohort study data were used to explore the spatial and spatio-temporal distribution of malaria episodes in 2040 children aged

BackgroundIn Vietnam, the importance of vivax malaria relative to falciparum during the past decade has steadily increased to 50%. This, together with the spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, is a major challenge for malaria elimination. A 2-year prospective cohort study to assess P. vivax morbidity after radical cure treatment and related risk factors was conducted in Central Vietnam.Methods and findingsThe study was implemented between April 2009 and December 2011 in four neighboring villages in a remote forested area of Quang Nam province. P. vivax-infected patients were treated radically with chloroquine (CQ; 25 mg/kg over 3 days) and primaquine (PQ; 0.5 mg/kg/day for 10 days) and visited monthly (malaria symptoms and blood sampling) for up to 2 years. Time to first vivax recurrence was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and risk factors for first and recurrent infections were identified by Cox regression models. Among the 260 P. vivax patients (61% males [159/260]; age range 3-60) recruited, 240 completed the 10-day treatment, 223 entered the second month of follow-up, and 219 were followed for at least 12 months. Most individuals (76.78%, 171/223) had recurrent vivax infections identified by molecular methods (polymerase chain reaction [PCR]); in about half of them (55.61%, 124/223), infection was detected by microscopy, and 84 individuals (37.67%) had symptomatic recurrences. Median time to first recurrence by PCR was 118 days (IQR 59-208). The estimated probability of remaining free of recurrence by month 24 was 20.40% (95% CI [14.42; 27.13]) by PCR, 42.52% (95% CI [35.41; 49.44]) by microscopy, and 60.69% (95% CI [53.51; 67.11]) for symptomatic recurrences. The main risk factor for recurrence (first or recurrent) was prior P. falciparum infection. The main limitations of this study are the age of the results and the absence of a comparator arm, which does not allow estimating the proportion of vivax relapses among recurrent infections.ConclusionA substantial number of P. vivax recurrences, mainly submicroscopic (SM) and asymptomatic, were observed after high-dose PQ treatment (5.0 mg/kg). Prior P. falciparum infection was an important risk factor for all types of vivax recurrences. Malaria elimination efforts need to address this largely undetected P. vivax transmission by simultaneously tackling the reservoir of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.

BackgroundTaenia solium is a neglected zoonotic parasite endemic throughout many low-income countries worldwide, including Zambia, where it causes human and pig diseases with high health and socioeconomic burdens. Lack of knowledge is a recognized risk factor, and consequently targeted health educational programs can decrease parasite transmission and disease occurrence in endemic areas. Preliminary assessment of the computer-based education program 'The Vicious Worm' in rural areas of eastern Zambia indicated that it was effective at increasing knowledge of T. solium in primary school students. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of 'The Vicious Worm' on knowledge retention by re-assessing the same primary school students one year after the initial education workshops.Methodology/principal findingsFollow-up questionnaires were administered in the original three primary schools in eastern Zambia in 2017, 12 months after the original workshops. In total, 86 pupils participated in the follow-up sessions, representing 87% of the initial workshop respondents. Knowledge of T. solium at 'follow-up' was significantly higher than at the initial 'pre' questionnaire administered during the Vicious Worm workshop that took place one year earlier. While some specifics of the parasite's life cycle were not completely understood, the key messages for disease prevention, such as the importance of hand washing and properly cooking pork, remained well understood by the students, even one year later.Conclusions/significanceResults of this study indicate that 'The Vicious Worm' may be an effective tool for both short- and long-term T. solium education of rural primary school students in Zambia. Inclusion of educational workshops using 'The Vicious Worm' could be recommended for integrated cysticercosis control/elimination programs in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly if the content is simplified to focus on the key messages for prevention of disease transmission.

BackgroundPatients experiencing adverse drug events (ADE) in many developing countries are in the best position to report these events to the authorities but need to be empowered to do so. Systematic evaluation of community engagement and patient support especially in rural areas would provide evidence for a program to monitor potential harm from medicines. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of a community dialogue and sensitization (CDS) program on the knowledge, attitude and practises of community members for reporting ADE.MethodsThis an uncontrolled before-after study was conducted in two eastern Ugandan districts between September 2016 and August 2017.ResultsAfter implementation of the community dialogue and sensitization (CDS) program, there was an overall 20% (95% CI:16% to 25%) increase in knowledge about ADE in the community compared to before the program began. Awareness levels increased by 50% (95% CI: 37% to 63%) among those with little or no education and by41% (95% CI: 31% to 52%) among young people (15-24 years). Furthermore, 5% (95% CI: 3% to 7%) more respondents recognized the need for reporting ADEs compared to before the program. Finally, there was a significant increase of 115% (95% CI:137% to 217%) in respondent recognition and reporting of ADEs compared to the beginning of the CDS program. Overall, this community found the CDS program acceptable and proposed aspects that could be improved for future use.ConclusionOur evaluation showed that the CDS program increased knowledge and improved attitudes by catalyzing discussions among community members and healthcare professionals on health issues and monitoring safety of medicines compared to before the program. Successful implementation of the program depends on holistic health systems strengthening and adaptation to the community's way of life.

The measurement of recent malaria exposure can support malaria control efforts. This study evaluated serological responses to an in-house Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein 8 (PvMSP8) expressed in a Baculovirus system as sero-marker of recent exposure to P. vivax (Pv) in the Peruvian Amazon. In a first evaluation, IgGs against PvMSP8 and PvMSP10 proteins were measured by Luminex in a cohort of 422 Amazonian individuals with known history of Pv exposure (monthly data of infection status by qPCR and/or microscopy over five months). Both serological responses were able to discriminate between exposed and non-exposed individuals in a good manner, with slightly higher performance of anti-PvMSP10 IgGs (area under the curve AUC = 0.78 [95% CI = 0.72–0.83]) than anti-PvMSP8 IgGs (AUC = 0.72 [95% CI = 0.67–0.78]) (p = 0.01). In a second evaluation, the analysis by ELISA of 1251 plasma samples, collected during a population-based cross-sectional survey, confirmed the good performance of anti-PvMSP8 IgGs for discriminating between individuals with Pv infection at the time of survey and/or with antecedent of Pv in the past month (AUC = 0.79 [95% CI = 0.74–0.83]). Anti-PvMSP8 IgG antibodies can be considered as a good biomarker of recent Pv exposure in low-moderate transmission settings of the Peruvian Amazon.

Abstract EFSA received an application from the Dutch Competent Authority, under Article 20 of Regulation (EC) No 1069/2009 and Regulation (EU) No 142/2011, for the evaluation of an alternative method for treatment of Category 3 animal by‐products (ABP). It consists of the hydrolysis of the material to short‐carbon chains, resulting in medium‐chain fatty acids that may contain up to 1% hydrolysed protein, for use in animal feed. A physical process, with ultrafiltration followed by nanofiltration to remove hazards, is also used. Process efficacy has been evaluated based on the ability of the membrane barriers to retain potential biological hazards present. Small viruses passing the ultrafiltration membrane will be retained at the nanofiltration step, which represents a Critical Control Point (CCP) in the process. This step requires the Applicant to validate and provide certification for the specific use of the nanofiltration membranes used. Continuous monitoring and membrane integrity tests should be included as control measures in the HACCP plan. The ultrafiltration and nanofiltration techniques are able to remove particles of the size of virus, bacteria and parasites from liquids. If used under controlled and appropriate conditions, the processing methods proposed should reduce the risk in the end product to a degree which is at least equivalent to that achieved with the processing standards laid down in the Regulation for Category 3 material. The possible presence of small bacterial toxins produced during the fermentation steps cannot be avoided by the nanofiltration step and this hazard should be controlled by a CCP elsewhere in the process. The limitations specified in the current legislation and any future modifications in relation to the end use of the product also apply to this alternative process, and no hydrolysed protein of ruminant origin (except ruminant hides and skins) can be included in feed for farmed animals or for aquaculture.

Abstract Food safety criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat (RTE) foods have been applied from 2006 onwards (Commission Regulation (EC) 2073/2005). Still, human invasive listeriosis was reported to increase over the period 2009–2013 in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). Time series analysis for the 2008–2015 period in the EU/EEA indicated an increasing trend of the monthly notified incidence rate of confirmed human invasive listeriosis of the over 75 age groups and female age group between 25 and 44 years old (probably related to pregnancies). A conceptual model was used to identify factors in the food chain as potential drivers for L. monocytogenes contamination of RTE foods and listeriosis. Factors were related to the host (i. population size of the elderly and/or susceptible people; ii. underlying condition rate), the food (iii. L. monocytogenes prevalence in RTE food at retail; iv. L. monocytogenes concentration in RTE food at retail; v. storage conditions after retail; vi. consumption), the national surveillance systems (vii. improved surveillance), and/or the bacterium (viii. virulence). Factors considered likely to be responsible for the increasing trend in cases are the increased population size of the elderly and susceptible population except for the 25–44 female age group. For the increased incidence rates and cases, the likely factor is the increased proportion of susceptible persons in the age groups over 45 years old for both genders. Quantitative modelling suggests that more than 90% of invasive listeriosis is caused by ingestion of RTE food containing > 2,000 colony forming units (CFU)/g, and that one‐third of cases are due to growth in the consumer phase. Awareness should be increased among stakeholders, especially in relation to susceptible risk groups. Innovative methodologies including whole genome sequencing (WGS) for strain identification and monitoring of trends are recommended.

Abstract The European Commission asked EFSA for a scientific opinion on chronic wasting disease in two parts. Part one, on surveillance, animal health risk‐based measures and public health risks, was published in January 2017. This opinion (part two) addresses the remaining Terms of Reference, namely, ‘are the conclusions and recommendations in the EFSA opinion of June 2004 on diagnostic methods for chronic wasting disease still valid? If not, an update should be provided’, and ‘update the conclusions of the 2010 EFSA opinion on the results of the European Union survey on chronic wasting disease in cervids, as regards its occurrence in the cervid population in the European Union’. Data on the performance of authorised rapid tests in North America are not comprehensive, and are more limited than those available for the tests approved for statutory transmissible spongiform encephalopathies surveillance applications in cattle and sheep. There are no data directly comparing available rapid test performances in cervids. The experience in Norway shows that the Bio‐Rad TeSeE™ SAP test, immunohistochemistry and western blotting have detected reindeer, moose and red deer cases. It was shown that testing both brainstem and lymphoid tissue from each animal increases the surveillance sensitivity. Shortcomings in the previous EU survey limited the reliability of inferences that could be made about the potential disease occurrence in Europe. Subsequently, testing activity in Europe was low, until the detection of the disease in Norway, triggering substantial testing efforts in that country. Available data neither support nor refute the conclusion that chronic wasting disease does not occur widely in the EU and do not preclude the possibility that the disease was present in Europe before the survey was conducted. It appears plausible that chronic wasting disease could have become established in Norway more than a decade ago.

Abstract The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) concept was developed to provide a harmonised generic pre‐evaluation to support safety risk assessments of biological agents performed by EFSA's scientific Panels. The identity, body of knowledge, safety concerns and antimicrobial resistance of valid taxonomic units were assessed. Safety concerns identified for a taxonomic unit are, where possible and reasonable in number, considered to be ‘qualifications’ which should be assessed at the strain level by the EFSA's scientific Panels. No new information was found that would change the previously recommended QPS taxonomic units and their qualifications. The BIOHAZ Panel confirms that the QPS approach can be extended to a genetically modified production strain if the recipient strain qualifies for the QPS status, and if the genetic modification does not indicate a concern. Between April and September 2017, the QPS notification list was updated with 46 applications for market authorisation. From these, 14 biological agents already had QPS status and 16 were not included as they are filamentous fungi or enterococci. One notification of Streptomyces K‐61 (notified as former S. griseoviridis) and four of Escherichia coli were not considered for the assessment as they belong to taxonomic units that were excluded from further evaluations within the current QPS mandate. Eight notifications of Bacillus thuringiensis and one of an oomycete are pending the reception of the complete application. Two taxonomic units were evaluated: Kitasatospora paracochleata, which had not been evaluated before, and Komagataella phaffii, previously notified as Pichia pastoris included due to a change in the taxonomic identity. Kitasatospora paracochleata cannot be granted QPS status due to lack of information on its biology and to its possible production of toxic secondary metabolites. The species Komagataella phaffii can be recommended for the QPS list when used for enzyme production.