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Human activity has fundamentally altered wildfire on Earth, creating serious consequences for human health, global biodiversity, and climate change. However, it remains difficult to predict fire interactions with land use, management, and climate change, representing a serious knowledge gap and vulnerability. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 98 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Respondents indicated that direct human activity was already influencing wildfires locally since at least ~12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime until around 5000 years BP. Responses showed a ten-fold increase in the rate of wildfire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in fire frequency, severity, and/or size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regime showed quite different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, concluding that management options are seriously constrained under higher emission scenarios.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. Introduction Methods and materials Results and discussion Timing and type of future fire regime change Consequences of fire regime change Our capacity to prevent, control, or adapt to future fire regimes Charting a course in a world of uncertainty Expert assessment application in fire management

Long-term disturbance histories, reconstructed using diverse paleoecological tools, provide high-quality information about pre-observational periods. These data offer a portrait of past environmental variability for understanding the long-term patterns in climate and disturbance regimes and the forest ecosystem response to these changes. Paleoenvironmental records also provide a longer-term context against which current anthropogenic-related environmental changes can be evaluated. Records of the long-term interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and climate help guide forest management practices that aim to mirror “natural” disturbance regimes. In this chapter, we outline how paleoecologists obtain these long-term data sets and extract paleoenvironmental information from a range of sources. We demonstrate how the reconstruction of key disturbances in the boreal forest, such as fire and insect outbreaks, provides critical long-term views of disturbance-climate-vegetation interactions. Recent developments of novel proxies are highlighted to illustrate advances in reconstructing millennial-scale disturbance-related dynamics and how this new information benefits the sustainable management of boreal forests in a rapidly changing climate.

Fire is naturally an integral part of the northern boreal forests dynamics. However, anthropogenic activity has greatly affected the fire history in Fennoscandia, especially during the last millennia and the effective fire suppression practically led to the absence of a natural fire regime in boreal forests in Finland. However, the changing climate conditions may increase the risk of severe fire events regardless of the fire management. Therefore, it is important to look into the long-term interactions between human impact, fire and vegetation succession in order to understand the possible future role of fire in boreal forests.One of the oldest protected areas in Europe is located in Central Finland and provides a good opportunity to investigate the change from natural fire and vegetation dynamics to human controlled fire regime and the natural vegetation succession after cessation of the slash-and-burn cultivation. The site is known to have been under slash-and-burn cultivation until the beginning of the 19th century and the last known burnings were done in the 1840s after which the site has been left to natural succession. The site was partly protected in 1911 and it was included into national the old-growth forest reserve protection program in 1994.In order to investigate the long-term natural fire history and the role of human impact in the fire and the vegetation dynamics during last 3000 years we collected peat cores covering from two small forest hollows from the Kuusmäki old-growth forests protected area. Macroscopic (> 150 µm) charcoal and Neurospora-fungal spores are used to reconstruct the fire history and pollen analysis is performed to reconstruct the long-term vegetation dynamics in the study area.The preliminary results demonstrate an increase in charcoal abundance from 16th century suggesting increased fire activity and a more intensive period of slash and burn cultivation in the area until the beginning of the 19th century. The absence of charcoal during the last century suggests absence of fire after the cessation of slash and burn cultivation. These results together with the vegetation succession will be further discussed in the presentation.

This research has been supported by the Leverhulme Trust (grant no. RC-2018-023), the European Research Council (grant no. 694481), the German Research Foundation (grant no. FE-1096/6-1), the Swiss Government Excellence Postdoctoral Scholarships (grant no. FIRECO 2016.0310), the National Science Centre of Poland (grant no. 2015/17/B/ST10/01656), the SCIEX Scholarship Fund (grant no. PSPB-013/2010), and the Estonian Research Council (grant no. MOBJD313)., Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issues limit the use of existing compilations for research into past fire regimes. Here, we present an expanded database of charcoal records, accompanied by new age models based on recalibration of radiocarbon ages using IntCal20 and Bayesian age-modelling software. We document the structure and contents of the database, the construction of the age models, and the quality control measures applied. We also record the expansion of geographical coverage relative to previous charcoal compilations and the expansion of metadata that can be used to inform analyses. This first version of the Reading Palaeofire Database contains 1676 records (entities) from 1480 sites worldwide. The database (RPDv1b – Harrison et al., 2021) is available at https://doi.org/10.17864/1947.000345., Leverhulme Trust RC-2018-023, European Research Council (ERC) European Commission 694481, German Research Foundation (DFG) FE-1096/6-1, Swiss Government Excellence Postdoctoral Scholarships FIRECO 2016.0310, SCIEX Scholarship Fund PSPB-013/2010, Estonian Research Council MOBJD313

Outbreaks of conifer bark beetles in Europe and North America have increased in scale and severity in recent decades. In this study, we identify existing fossil records containing bark beetle remains from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~14,000 cal. yr BP) to present day using the online databases Neotoma and BugsCEP and literature searches, and compare these data with modern distribution data of selected tree-killing species. Modern-day observational data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database was used to map recorded distributions from AD 1750 to present day. A total of 53 fossil sites containing bark beetle remains, from both geological and archeological sites, were found during our searches. Fossil sites were fewer in Europe ( n = 21) than North America ( n = 32). In Europe, 29% of the samples in which remains were found were younger than 1000 cal. yr BP, while in North America, remains were mainly identified from late Glacial (~14,000–11,500 cal. yr BP) sites. In total, the fossil records contained only 8 of 20 species we consider important tree-killing bark beetles in Europe and North America based on their impacts during the last 100 years. In Europe, Ips sexdentatus was absent from the fossil record. In North America, Dendroctonus adjunctus, Dendroctonus frontalis, Dendroctonus jeffreyi, Dendroctonus pseudotsugae, Dryocoetes confusus, Ips calligraphus, Ips confusus, Ips grandicollis, Ips lecontei, Ips paraconfusus, and Scolytus ventralis were absent. Overall, preserved remains of tree-killing bark beetles are rare in the fossil record. However, by retrieving bulk material from new and existing sites and combining data from identified bark beetle remains with pollen, charcoal, tree rings, and geochemistry, the occurrence and dominance of bark beetles, their outbreaks, and other disturbance events can be reconstructed.

Temperate mountain forests have experienced an increase in frequency and severity of natural disturbances (e.g., droughts, fires, windstorms and insect outbreaks) in recent decades due to climate and environmental change. Outbreaks of bark beetles have caused significant dieback of conifer forests in Central Europe and it is essential to model and predict the potential severity of future bark beetle outbreaks. However, to predict future bark beetle activity, historical baseline information is required to contextualize the magnitude of current and potential future outbreaks. A fossil beetle record from a forest hollow in the Tatra Mountains, Slovakia; one of the best-preserved national parks in Central Europe, was produced to identify insect outbreaks during the last millennia. Sub-fossil bark beetle remains were compared with parallel pollen and charcoal to assess whether peaks in conifer bark beetle remains correspond with indications of disturbance documented in historical or sedimentary fossil records. Three peaks in bark beetle remains were detected (1) post-2004, (2) AD 1140–1440, and (3) AD 930–1030. The abundance of species Pityogenes chalcographus and Pityophthorus pityographus in the two top samples can be linked directly to large bark beetle outbreaks in the High Tatra Mountains after 2004. P. chalcographus and P. pityographus are also the abundant species in the second peak (AD 1140–1440) while the third peak (AD 930–1030) consists of the species Polygraphus poligraphus. The most prominent conifer bark beetle in Central Europe, Ips typographus, was found to be present in most of the samples but always at very low numbers. It is plausible that P. chalcographus and P. pityographus fossils might be useful proxies for past conifer bark beetle outbreaks in Central Europe, as they occur together with fossils of I. typographus but appear to be well-preserved. A significant correlation was found between primary bark beetles and macroscopic charcoal densities in the sediment, highlighting the complex interactions between disturbance agents, bark beetles and fire, in this long-term regime of natural disturbances. Our 1400-year disturbance record shows how bark beetle outbreaks have been an important component of the regional natural disturbance regime for over a millennium and have intensified with increasing anthropogenic activity. Bark beetle outbreaks are likely one of the drivers promoting the future ecological stability of the temperate conifer ecosystem over decades to centuries.

Sedimentary charcoal records are widely used to reconstruct regional changes in fire regimes through time in the geological past. Existing global compilations are not geographically comprehensive and do not provide consistent metadata for all sites. Furthermore, the age models provided for these records are not harmonised and many are based on older calibrations of the radiocarbon ages. These issues limit the use of existing compilations for research into past fire regimes. Here, we present an expanded database of charcoal records, accompanied by new age models based on recalibration of radiocarbon ages using INTCAL2020 and Bayesian age-modelling software. We document the structure and contents of the database, the construction of the age models, and the quality control measures applied. We also record the expansion of geographical coverage relative to previous charcoal compilations and the expansion of metadata that can be used to inform analyses. This first version of the Reading Palaeofire Database contains 1681 records (entities) from 1477 sites worldwide. The database (DOI: 10.17864/1947.319) is available from https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/319.

© 2019, Institute of Zoology, Slovak Academy of Sciences. The Bohemian Forest lakes, situated along the Czech-German-Austrian border, were strongly affected by atmospheric acidification between the 1950s and the late 1980s. The subsequent chemical recovery of the lake water should precede and enable a biological recovery, including changes in caddisfly (Insecta: Trichoptera) assemblages. Nevertheless, local pre-acidification data and detailed knowledge of the lake district history are missing, making evaluation of lake recovery difficult. We performed high-resolution analysis of caddisfly remains in a 2.2 m long sediment profile from Prášilské Lake covering the complete history of the lake-catchment evolution. Caddisfly larvae are good indicators of environmental conditions and their subfossil remains are well preserved in unconsolidated waterlaid sediments. A total of 10 caddisfly morpho-taxa were found providing a record from 11,400 cal. yr. BP to the present. With the exception of Athripsodes aterrimus, all identified species are currently present in the Bohemian Forest glacial lakes or their inflow streams but not all of them are documented in Prášilské Lake. The caddisfly fauna consisted of acid-resistant, acid-tolerant and eurytopic species since the Early Holocene. Based on our results, the acid, dystrophic state of Prášilské Lake has been occurring since the lake formation. We conclude that the first signs of natural acidification appeared not later than during the Holocene onset in the Bohemian Forest region. Furthermore, we did not detect any abrupt changes in the species composition connected to the period of anthropogenic acidification during the twentieth century. This study provides for the first time a record of postglacial succession of caddisfly assemblages in a central European mountain lake.

Few fossil-based environmental and climate records in northern Europe are dated to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a around 80 ka BP. We here present multiple environmental and climate proxies obtained froma lake sequence of MIS 5a age in the Sokli basin (northern Finland). Pollen/spores, plant macrofossils, NPPs (e.g. green algae), bryozoa, diatoms and chironomids allowed an exceptionally detailed reconstruction of aquatic and telmatic ecosystem successions related to the development of the Sokli Ice Lake and subsequent infilling of a relatively small and shallow lake confined to the Sokli basin. A regional vegetation development typical for the early half of an interglacial is recorded by the pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil data. Reconstructions of July temperatures based on pollen assemblages suffer from a large contribution of local pollen from the lake’s littoral zone. Summer temperatures reaching present-day values, inferred for the upper part of the lake sequence, however, agree with the establishment of pine-dominated boreal forest indicated by the plant fossil data. Habitat preferences also influence the climate record based onchironomids. Nevertheless, the climate optima of the predominant intermediate- to warm-water chironomid taxa suggest July temperatures exceeding present-day values by up to several degrees, in line with climate inferences from a variety of aquatic and wetland plant indicator species. The disequilibrium between regional vegetation development and warm, insolation-forced summers is also reported for Early Holocene records from northern Fennoscandia. The MIS 5a sequence is the last remaining fossil-bearing deposit in the late Quaternary basin infill at Sokli to be studied using multi-proxy evidence. A unique detailed climate record for MIS5 is now available for formerly glaciated northern Europe. Our studies indicate that interglacial conditions persisted into MIS 5a, in agreement with data for large parts of the European mainland, shortening the Last Glacial by some 50 ka to MIS 4-2. The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) provided funding for this study; furthermore, the Bolin Centre for Climate Research at Stockholm University is acknowledged for funding to the Sokli studies (KFH). JSS acknowledges funding from the Academy of Finland (project 1310649). Wethank Sanna Piilo (University of Helsinki) for the LOI measurements.

Disentangling the long-term changes in forest disturbance dynamics provides a basis for predicting the forest responses to changing environmental conditions. The combination of multidisciplinary records can offer more robust reconstructions of past forest disturbance dynamics. Here we link disturbance histories of the central European mountain spruce forest obtained from dendrochronological and palaeoecological records (fossil pollen, sedimentary charcoal, bark beetle remains and geochemistry) using a small glacial lake and the surrounding forest in the Sumava National Park (Czech Republic). Dendrochronological reconstructions of disturbance were created for 300-year-long records from 6 study plots with a minimum of 35 trees analyzed for the abrupt growth increases (releases) and rapid early growth rates, both indicative of disturbance events. High-resolution analysis of lake sediments were used to reconstruct 800-year long changes in forest composition and landscape openness (fossil pollen), past fire events (micro- and macroscopic charcoal), bark beetle occurrence (fossil bark beetle remains), and erosion episodes (geochemical signals in the sediment) potentially resulting from disturbance events. Tree-ring data indicate that disturbances occurred regularly through the last three centuries and identify a most intensive period of disturbances between 1780 and 1830 CE. Geochemical erosion markers (e.g. K, Zr, % inorganic) show greater flux of catchment sediment and soils in the periods 1250–1400 and 1450–1500 CE, before a substantial shift to a more erosive regime 1600–1850 and 1900 CE onwards. Pollen records demonstrate relatively small changes in forest composition during the last 800 years until the beginning of the 20th century, when there was decrease in Picea. Fossil bark beetle remains indicate continuous presence of bark beetles from 1620s to 1800s, and charcoal records suggest that more frequent fires occurred during the 18th century. Each of the dendrochronological, palaeoecological and sedimentological records provide a unique perspective on forest disturbance dynamics, and combined offer a more robust and complete record of disturbance history. We demonstrate that sedimentary proxies originating from the lake catchment mirror the forest disturbance dynamics recorded in the tree-rings. The multidisciplinary records likely record forest disturbances at different spatial and temporal scales revealing different disturbance characteristics. Integrating these multidisciplinary datasets demonstrates a promising way to obtain more complete understanding of long-term disturbance dynamics. However, integrating datasets with variable spatial and temporal influence remains challenging. Our results indicated that multiple disturbance factors, such as windstorms, bark beetle outbeaks and fires, may occur simultaneously creating a complex disturbance regime in mountain forests, which should be considered in forest management and conservation strategies.

Montane biomes are niche environments high in biodiversity with a variety of habitats. Often isolated, these non-continuous remnant ecosystems inhabit narrow ecological zones putting them under threat from changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure. Twelve sediment cores were retrieved from a peat bog in Tatra National Park, Slovakia, and correlated to each other by wiggle-matching geochemical signals derived from micro-XRF scanning, to make a reconstruction of past conditions. A fossil beetle (Coleoptera) record, covering the last 1000 years at 50- to 100-year resolution, gives a new insight into changing flora and fauna in this region. Our findings reveal a diverse beetle community with varied ecological groups inhabiting a range of forest, meadow and synanthropic habitats. Changes in the beetle community were related to changes in the landscape, driven by anthropogenic activities. The first clear evidence for human activity in the area occurs c. 1250 CE and coincides with the arrival of beetle species living on the dung of domesticated animals (e.g. Aphodius spp.). From 1500 CE, human (re)settlement, and activities such as pasturing and charcoal burning, appear to have had a pronounced effect on the beetle community. Local beetle diversity declined steadily towards the present day, likely due to an infilling of the forest hollow leading to a decrease in moisture level. We conclude that beetle communities are directly affected by anthropogenic intensity and land-use change. When aiming to preserve or restore natural forest conditions, recording their past changes in diversity can help guide conservation and restoration. In doing so, it is important to look back beyond the time of significant human impact, and for this, information contained in paleoecological records is irreplaceable.

Investigating past changes in temperate mountain spruce forest ecosystems and the processes behind them can provide valuable information for understanding present and future ecosystem dynamics. To assess the late Holocene ecosystem change and disturbance history in mountain spruce forests, we sampled four small forest hollows from the High Tatra mountains in Slovakia. We use pollen analysis to reconstruct changes in forest composition over the last circa 5000 cal. yr BP. Fire history is analysed using macroscopic charcoal counts and charcoal area measurements. As disturbance is one of the key factors shaping mountain forest dynamics, the analysed pollen records will be processed with a new method quantifying disturbance based on plant ecological indices (Kuneš et al. 2019). These indices for disturbance will be attributed to pollen taxa and then disturbance frequency and severity for the whole community will be calculated. We assess the role of climate and human impact as potential drivers on the past forest and disturbance dynamics. The climate variable will be constructed from modelled climate data for the last 4000 years and for the past 1000 years we will use climate reconstruction from the tree-ring records from the region. We use human indicator pollen taxa as the variable for human influence on ecosystem dynamics, and to indicate human activity in the region.Preliminary results demonstrate opening of the landscape circa 800-500 cal. yr BP in connection with a change in the disturbance regime as indicated by the disturbance indices. The presence of human indicator pollen taxa in all small hollow records suggest landscape opening in connection with anthropogenic activity in the region. In addition, the charcoal records demonstrate periods of fire, which coincide with the opening of landscape and it is plausible that change in the fire regime is connected to the intensified human activity in the region. These results will be discussed further in the presentation in the light of climate data and further data analysis.Reference:Kuneš, P. Abraham, V. & Herben, T. 2019. Changing disturbance-diversity relationships in temperate ecosystems over the past 12 000 years. Journal of Ecology 107:1678–1688.

Detailed studies on fossil remains of plants or animals in glacial lake sediments are rare. As a result, environmental conditions right at the moment of deglaciation of the large N-Hemisphere ice-sheets remain largely unknown. Here we study three deglacial phases of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet as a unique, repeated element in a long sediment record preserved at Sokli in northern Finland. We summarize extensive multi-proxy data (diatoms, phytoliths, chironomids, pollen, spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, macrofossils, lithology, loss-on-ignition, C/N) obtained on glacial lake sediments dated to the early Holocene (ca. 10 kyr BP), early MIS 3 (ca. 50 kyr BP) and early MIS 5a (ca. 80 kyr BP). In contrast to the common view of an unproductive ice-marginal environment, our study reconstructs rich ecosystems both in the glacial lake and along the shores with forest on recently deglaciated land. Higher than present-day summer temperatures are reconstructed based on a large variety of aquatic taxa. Rich biota developed due to the insolation-induced postglacial warming and high nutrient levels, the latter resulting from erosion of fresh bedrock and sediment, leaching of surface soils, decay of plant material under shallow water conditions, and sudden decreases in lake volume. Aquatic communities responded quickly to deglaciation and warm summers and reflect boreal conditions, in contrast to the terrestrial ecosystem which responded with some delay probably due to time required for slow soil formation processes. Birch forest is reconstructed upon deglaciation of the large LGM ice-sheet and shrub tundra following the probably faster melting smaller MIS 4 and MIS 5b ice-sheets. Our study shows that glacial lake sediments can provide valuable palaeo-environmental data, that aquatic biota and terrestrial vegetation rapidly accommodated to new environmental conditions during deglaciation, and that glacial lake ecosystems, and the carbon stored in their sediments, should be included in earth system modeling.

Questions: We investigated the changing role of climate, forest fires and human population size in the broad-scale compositional changes in Holocene vegetation dynamics before and after the onset of farming in Sweden (at 6,000 cal yr BP) and in Finland (at 4,000 cal yr BP). Location: Southern and central Sweden, SW and SE Finland. Methods: Holocene regional plant abundances were reconstructed using the REVEALS model on selected fossil pollen records from lakes. The relative importance of climate, fires and human population size on changes in vegetation composition was assessed using variation partitioning. Past climate variable was derived from the LOVECLIM climate model. Fire variable was reconstructed from sedimentary charcoal records. Estimated trend in human population size was based on the temporal distribution of archaeological radiocarbon dates. Results: Climate explains the highest proportion of variation in vegetation composition during the whole study period in Sweden (10,000–4,000 cal yr BP) and in Finland (10,000–1,000 cal yr BP), and during the pre-agricultural period. In general, fires explain a relatively low proportion of variation. Human population size has significant effect on vegetation dynamics after the onset of farming and explains the highest variation in vegetation in S Sweden and SW Finland. Conclusions: Mesolithic hunter-gatherer populations did not significantly affect vegetation composition in Fennoscandia, and climate was the main driver of changes at that time. Agricultural communities, however, had greater effect on vegetation dynamics, and the role of human population size became a more important factor during the late Holocene. Our results demonstrate that climate can be considered the main driver of long-term vegetation dynamics in Fennoscandia. However, in some regions the influence of human population size on Holocene vegetation changes exceeded that of climate and has a longevity dating to the early Neolithic.

We report pollen-stratigraphical evidence for an abrupt, episodic and widespread population decline of alder (Alnus), one of the most common boreal tree genera, during the medieval period in northern Europe. Decline of alder pollen values was observed both in forest hollow pollen records reflecting local vegetation of pristine forests and in pollen percentage and pollen accumulation data from lake sediments. The event began roughly at AD 600 and the recovery took place at AD 1000. Human impact is an unlikely cause because the decline is specific to alder and there is no evidence for a concurrent episode of human impact. It is possible that the decline was caused or influenced by a severe drought. Another potential cause is a sudden, widespread pathogen outbreak, especially as alder is known to be sensitive to the impacts of fungal pathogens such as the oomycete Phytophthora.

The Eemian (the Last Interglacial; ca. 129–116 thousand years ago) presents a testbed for assessing environmental responses and climate feedbacks under warmer-than-present boundary conditions. However, climate syntheses for the Eemian remain hampered by lack of data from the high-latitude land areas, masking the climate response and feedbacks in the Arctic. Here we present a high-resolution (sub-centennial) record of Eemian palaeoclimate from northern Finland, with multi-model reconstructions for July and January air temperature. In contrast with the mid-latitudes of Europe, our data show decoupled seasonal trends with falling July and rising January temperatures over the Eemian, due to orbital and oceanic forcings. This leads to an oceanic Late-Eemian climate, consistent with an earlier hypothesis of glacial inception in Europe. The interglacial is further intersected by two strong cooling and drying events. These abrupt events parallel shifts in marine proxy data, linked to disturbances in the North Atlantic oceanic circulation regime., The Eemian period (120 ka) is considered a past analogue for future climatic warming, yet data from the high latitudes remains sparse. Here, the authors show that in Northern Europe, the Eemian saw dramatic climatic shifts, linked to changes in Earth’s orbit and North Atlantic oceanic circulation.

Understanding the processes behind long-term boreal forest dynamics can provide information that assists in predicting future boreal vegetation under changing environmental conditions. Here, we examine Holocene stand-scale vegetation dynamics and its drivers at the western boundary of the Russian taiga forest in NW Russia. Fossil pollen and conifer stomata records from four small hollow sites and two lake sites are used to reconstruct local vegetation dynamics during the Holocene. Variation partitioning is used to assess the relative importance of the potential drivers (temperature, forest fires and growing site wetness) to the long-term stand-scale dynamics in taiga forest. All the main tree taxa, including the boreal keystone species Picea abies (Norway spruce) and Larix sibirica (Siberian larch), have been locally present since 10,000 cal yr bp. The constant Holocene presence of L. sibirica at three small hollow sites suggests a fast postglacial immigration of the species in northern Europe. Picea was present but not dominant at all study sites until its expansion between 8,000 and 7,000 cal yr bp markedly changed the forest structure through the suppression of Betula (birch), Pinus (pine) and Larix. Our results demonstrate that in general, the Holocene forest dynamics in our study region have been driven by temperature, but during short intervals the role of local factors, especially forest fires, has been prominent. The comparison between sites reveals the importance of local factors in stand-scale dynamics in taiga forests. Therefore, the future responses of taiga forest to climate change will be predominantly modulated by the local characteristics at the site.

Forest vegetation composition, including dominant keystone species and floristic diversity, is driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Disentangling these complex interactions to identify the role of species competition, climate and disturbances in boreal forest dynamics is challenging. Here, pollen and charcoal data are used to reconstruct Holocene vegetation and fire history at the local stand-scale within an old-growth Picea abies (Norway spruce) forest hollow in southern Finland. The aim is to reconstruct vegetation history with specific emphasis on the mid-Holocene expansion of Picea and the decline in deciduous species in relation to fire history. Early-Holocene forest development and vegetation dynamics are primarily driven by climatic variations. The spread of Picea at approximately 5,200 cal bp does not coincide with local natural or anthropogenic disturbance or a decline in deciduous species and is consistent with its regional expansion, suggesting climate as the most likely control over the late establishment of this taxon. The mid-Holocene decline in deciduous species corresponds to an increased fire frequency suggesting a higher anthropogenic disturbance (also considered as the primary reason for the loss of floristic diversity in southern Finland). The ‘natural’ fire frequency in this local stand-scale boreal forest is lower than that observed in the recent past (i.e. the time of significant anthropogenic impact), yet the present-day absence or low frequency of fire remains within the range of natural variability observed during the early- and mid-Holocene.

Fossil pollen, conifer stomata, and charcoal records for the last 10,000 years were studied from three small hollow sites (Larix Hollow, Mosquito Hollow, and Olga Hollow) located at the modern western range limit of Siberian larch ( Larix sibirica) in northwestern Russia to investigate the role of forest fires in stand-scale dynamics of taiga vegetation. Wavelet coherence analysis was utilized to reveal the significance of fire on the vegetation composition at different timescales by assessing the phase and strength of the relationship between forest fires and most common boreal tree taxa in a time–frequency window. Pollen and stomata data show that all of the modern-day common tree taxa, including Norway spruce ( Picea abies) and Siberian larch, have been present in the study region since the early Holocene. The absence of charcoal layers at Mosquito Hollow suggests that this site has acted as a fire-free refugium with continuous dominance of spruce throughout the Holocene. Meanwhile, the Larix Hollow record indicates frequent local fire events and as a consequence, a more variable tree species composition. The wavelet coherence results show that the impact of forest fires on vegetation varies from short-term (

Fire disturbance is considered paramount for regeneration and biodiversity in the boreal forest with prescribed burning widely advocated in present day forest management. Palaeoecological knowledge is beneficial in understanding the role of fire as a driver of past vegetation dynamics. We use a sedimentary pollen and charcoal record to reconstruct 5000 years of fire and vegetation history from a small forest hollow (approximate area 12 m2) in the Vesijako Strict Nature Reserve, currently one of the few remaining old-growth forest stands in southern Finland. Results indicate three distinct periods in the environmental history (1) 5000–2000 cal. yrs. BP; semi-natural low frequency (430 year return period), low intensity fires in a diverse mixed stand with little evidence of anthropogenic disturbance and an expanding Picea abies (Norway spruce) population (2) 2000–750 cal. yrs. BP; anthropogenic-driven high frequency (180 year return period), high intensity stand-replacing fires in a low diversity stand with evidence of slash and burn cultivation and a decline of Picea population, (3) 750 cal. yrs. BP to present day; fire absence through a reduction in human-induced fire or active fire suppression and the expansion of the currently dominant Picea forest. The changing fire frequency has had a major influence on the forest composition during the last 5000 years. The loss of floristic diversity is associated with an increase in the human use of fire and without this human interference the previously high biodiversity in the stand may have remained up until the present day. If fire remains absent in Vesijako then it is likely that the Picea population will continue to dominate in the stand supporting a negative feedback mechanism that will result in lower frequency, higher intensity fires in the future.

The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long-term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long-term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long-term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis.