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BACKGROUND: Prognostication tools that report personalized mortality risk and survival could improve discussions about end-of-life and advance care planning. We sought to develop and validate a mortality risk model for older adults with diverse care needs in home care using self-reportable information — the Risk Evaluation for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool (RESPECT). METHODS: Using a derivation cohort that comprised adults living in Ontario, Canada, aged 50 years and older with at least 1 Resident Assessment Instrument for Home Care (RAI-HC) record between Jan. 1, 2007, and Dec. 31, 2012, we developed a mortality risk model. The primary outcome was mortality 6 months after a RAI-HC assessment. We used proportional hazards regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by the individual. We validated this algorithm for a second cohort of users of home care who were assessed between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2013. We used Kaplan–Meier survival curves to estimate the observed risk of death at 6 months for assessment of calibration and median survival. We constructed 61 risk groups based on incremental increases in the estimated median survival of about 3 weeks among adults at high risk and 3 months among adults at lower risk. RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts included 435 009 and 139 388 adults, respectively. We identified a total of 122 823 deaths within 6 months of a RAI-HC assessment in the derivation cohort. The mean predicted 6-month mortality risk was 10.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%–10.8%) and ranged from 1.54% (95% CI 1.53%–1.54%) in the lowest to 98.1% (95% CI 98.1%–98.2%) in the highest risk group. Estimated median survival spanned from 28 days (11 to 84 d at the 25th and 75th percentiles) in the highest risk group to over 8 years (1925 to 3420 d) in the lowest risk group. The algorithm had a c-statistic of 0.753 (95% CI 0.750–0.756) in our validation cohort. INTERPRETATION: The RESPECT mortality risk prediction tool that makes use of readily available information can improve the identification of palliative and end-of-life care needs in a diverse older adult population receiving home care.

Objective: Since 2012, all community care recipients in New Zealand have undergone a standardised needs assessment using the Home Care International Residential Assessment Instrument (interRAI‐HC). This study describes the national interRAI‐HC population, assesses its data quality and evaluates its ability to be matched. Methods: The interRAI‐HC instrument elicits information on 236 questions over 20 domains; conducted by 1,800+ trained health professionals. Assessments between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2014 are reported here. Stratified by age, demographic characteristics were compared to 2013 Census estimates and selected health profiles described. Deterministic matching to the Ministry of Health's mortality database was undertaken. Results: Overall, 51,232 interRAI‐HC assessments were conducted, with 47,714 (93.1%) research consent from 47,236 unique individuals; including 2,675 Māori and 1,609 Pacific people. Apart from height and weight, data validity and reliability were high. A 99.8% match to mortality data was achieved. Conclusions: The interRAI‐HC research database is large and ethnically diverse, with high consent rates. Its generally good psychometric properties and ability to be matched enhances its research utility. Implications: This national database provides a remarkable opportunity for researchers to better understand older persons’ health and health care, so as to better sustain older people in their own homes.

Noroviruses (NV) (until recently known as Norwalk-like viruses) are a common cause of outbreaks of viral gastroenteritis and can result in significant hospital disruption. We report our experience of two outbreaks that occurred in a geriatric rehabilitation hospital and the role of infection control in limiting their spread.The outbreaks occurred in two separate rehabilitation wards for older people. A case definition was developed and a register kept to record patient and staff sickness. The NV was identified from faecal specimens by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction.There were 41 cases in the first outbreak, with an attack rate of 57.1% for patients and 41% for staff. The outbreak lasted 14 days and closed the ward for 11 days. During this outbreak one patient died, with gastroenteritis the precipitating event of his final illness. There were 24 cases in the second outbreak, with an attack rate of 56.5% for patients and 18% for staff. The outbreak lasted 16 days with the ward closed for six days. The mean duration of staff sickness was 3.5 days in the second outbreak compared with only 1.2 days in the first outbreak. In both outbreaks infection was contained within a single ward.NV infections can significantly disrupt hospitals through their rapid spread to patients and staff as well as the associated high attack rate. Early recognition of an outbreak and prompt implementation of infection control measures, staffing restrictions and ward closure can limit the spread of infection.