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Biodiversity offsetting is a globally-influential policy mechanism for reconciling trade-offs between development and biodiversity loss. However, there is little robust evidence of its effectiveness. We evaluated the outcomes of a jurisdictional offsetting policy (Victoria, Australia). Offsets under Victoria’s Native Vegetation Framework (2002-2013) aimed to prevent loss and degradation of remnant vegetation, and generate gains in vegetation extent and quality. We categorised offsets into those with near-complete baseline woody vegetation cover (“avoided loss”, 2702 ha) and with incomplete cover (“regeneration”, 501 ha), and evaluated impacts on woody vegetation extent from 2008-2018. We used two approaches to estimate the counterfactual. First, we used statistical matching on biophysical covariates: a common approach in conservation impact evaluation, but which risks ignoring potentially important psychosocial confounders. Second, we compared changes in offsets with changes in non-offset sites that were later enrolled as offsets, to partially account for self-selection bias (where landholders enrolling land may have characteristics associated with different management). Matching on biophysical covariates, we estimated that regeneration offsets increased woody vegetation extent by 1.9-3.6%/year more than non-offset sites (138-180 ha from 2008-2018), but this effect weakened with the second approach (0.3-1.9%/year more than non-offset sites; 19-97 ha from 2008-2018) and disappeared when a single outlier land parcel was removed. Neither approach detected any impact of avoided loss offsets. We cannot conclusively demonstrate whether the policy goal of ‘net gain’ was achieved because of data limitations. However, given our evidence that the majority of increases in woody vegetation extent were not additional (would have happened without the scheme), a net gain outcome seems unlikely. The results highlight the importance of considering self-selection bias in the design and evaluation of regulatory biodiversity offsetting policy. They also highlight the challenges of conducting robust impact evaluations of jurisdictional biodiversity offsetting policies.

Many wild bee species are threatened across Europe, and with them the pollination function they provide. While numerous studies have assessed the value of bees as pollinators of crops, little is known about the non-marked value of bees. Using a choice modelling experiment, we examine these non-market values in Germany by identifying citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP) for wild bee conservation initiatives in four states. Effects of distance, state and regional affiliation are scrutinised, as previous research found these to affect respondents’ choices. Random parameter logit and latent class models are used to capture preference heterogeneity. Overall, we find strong support of wild bee conservation and a clear preference for improvement relative to the status quo, particularly in natural areas and for rare or endangered species. The yearly WTP for conservation initiatives ranges from 227 to 447€ per household. Our results show distance and regional effects on WTP. Initiatives in respondents’ home states are preferred, and increasing distance to initiatives in other states result in a slightly reduced WTP. Additionally, we observe regional preferences within an eastern and a western home region. These preferences are not explainable by socio-demographic characteristics, home state or distance and probably linked to social and cultural affiliations. We conclude that for widespread support in society and effective conservation initiatives, policy proposals must address this spatial heterogeneity from distance and regional effects. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their extensive and valuable comments on this manuscript. The authors would further like to thank Julian Sagebiel from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences for his support in the analysis of the survey data. They thank Alice Rogowski, Bennet Bergmann, Helena Leinweber, Jan Peters, Jean Paul Moreaux, Thomas Prossliner, as well as the focus groups participants for their valuable comments on the early version of the questionnaire. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. C.M., B.D. and C.R. thank the Danish National Research Foundation for its support of the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (Grant No. DNRF96).

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.Reconciliación de Múltiples Hipótesis de Contraste al Evaluar el Impacto de la Conservación de la Biodiversidad en los Sistemas Socio-Ecológicos Resumen Cuando se evalúa el impacto de una intervención de conservación de la biodiversidad, generalmente se requiere una hipótesis de contraste. Las hipótesis de contraste son las posibles trayectorias alternativas del sistema en ausencia de una intervención. La comparación de los resultados observados con la hipótesis de contraste elegida permite que se determine el impacto (cambio atribuible a la intervención). Ya que las hipótesis de contraste por definición nunca ocurren, éstas deben ser estimadas. En algunos casos es posible que existan muchas hipótesis de contraste, incluyendo a muchos conductores del cambio en la biodiversidad, y que estén definidas bajo una gama de escalas espaciales o temporales. En este artículo planteamos que, por definición, las intervenciones de conservación siempre ocurren en sistemas socioecológicos (SES) (es decir, sistemas ecológicos integrados con actores humanos). Por lo tanto, la evaluación del impacto de una intervención en un SES implica la consideración de las hipótesis de contraste asumidas por los diferentes actores humanos. El uso de diferentes hipótesis de contraste por los diferentes actores hará que surjan diferencias percibidas en los impactos de las intervenciones, lo que puede llegar a discrepancias sobre su éxito o sobre la efectividad de la estrategia subyacente. A pesar de que existen tendencias biofísicas de la biodiversidad, con frecuencia es cierto que no hay una sola hipótesis de contraste que sea correcta de manera definitiva para la evaluación de la conservación, por lo que múltiples evaluaciones de la eficiencia de la intervención podrían considerarse como justificables. Así, proponemos que se calcule la suma de las diferencias percibidas, la cual captura la gama de las estimaciones de impacto asociadas con diferentes actores en un SES dado. La suma de las diferencias percibidas nos da algún tipo de indicación sobre cuán de acuerdo están los actores de un SES sobre los impactos de una intervención. Aplicamos el concepto de diferencias percibidas a un conjunto de estudios de caso mundiales, nacionales y regionales (p. ej.: la realización mundial del Objetivo Aichi 11 para las áreas marinas protegidas, el efecto de la compensación de la biodiversidad sobre las condiciones botánicas en Australia y la influencia de las medidas de conservación sobre un ungulado en peligro en Asia central). Exploramos las estrategias para minimizar la suma, incluyendo una combinación de negociación y toma estructurada de decisiones, la alineación cuidadosa de las expectativas sobre el enfoque y la medida y el reconocimiento explícito de cualquier diferencia intratable entre los actores sociales.在评估生物多样性保护干预措施的影响时, 通常需要一个反设事实。反设事实是在没有干预的情况下可能的替代性系统轨迹。将观察到的结果与选择的反设事实进行比较, 则可以确定影响 (干预引起的变化) 。由于从定义上讲, 反设事实永远不会发生, 因此必须对其进行估计。然而, 有时可能存在许多看似合理的反设事实, 包括生物多样性变化的各种驱动因素, 并且可以在不同的时空尺度范围内加以定义。本研究假定, 根据定义, 保护干预总是发生在社会生态系统中 (即生态系统与人类行为相结合) 。因此, 评估一项干预措施对社会生态系统的影响需要考虑不同人类行为的反设事实。针对不同行动者使用不同的反设事实, 会导致干预措施的影响也出现明显差异, 这可能使人们对干预成功与否或方法有效性的评估产生分歧。虽然存在生物物理上的生物多样性趋势, 但往往没有单一的反设事实在保护评估中绝对适用, 因此应当对干预效果进行多重评估。我们建议计算可观测的差异的总和, 这样可以包含既定社会生态系统中不同行动者的影响估计范围。观测差异的总和还可以在一定程度上表明社会生态系统中的行动者对干预影响的一致性。我们将观测差异的概念应用于一系列全球、国家和区域的案例研究中 (如爱知目标 11 中海洋保护区的全球实现情况、澳大利亚生物多样性补偿对植被的影响, 以及中亚的保护措施对一种濒危有蹄类动物的影响)。本研究进一步探索了使观测总差异最小化的方法, 包括结合协商与结构化决策, 仔细调整对影响范围和测定结果的期望, 以及清楚认识到利益相关者之间难以处理的差异。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

This paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate how the technical efficiency of forest harvesting operations is influenced by terrain conditions and forest attributes, in addition to exploring the existence of other influencing factors. To this end, 643 shift-level observations of harvesting operations on 253 distinct harvested sites were used. The aim of this study is to highlight the harvester’s ability to maximize the outputs, represented by the number of assortments for various tree species, given inputs such as harvest volume, harvest time for various tree species, and distance traveled by the harvester. Operational environment variables such as harvest, or decision-making unit (DMU) size, shape, and terrain characteristics were included. We found large variations in efficiency scores, and that inefficient harvest operations could theoretically be improved by reducing input by up to ca. 80%. A second stage regression estimation was applied to identify which factors significantly affected inefficiency. It was found that the inefficiency decreases with increasing stem-volume for pine and broadleaves, increasing stand density, and increasing share of pulpwood and non-marketable timber, while it increases with the number of logs produced per tree (in broadleaves). Inefficiency increases also with an increasing ratio of actual travel distance to minimal travel distance. The study shows how adopting DEA methods in forest operations might be used in combining efficiency analysis and environmental factors, by identifying and measuring inefficiency due to, for example, difficult terrain.

Animal pollinators are globally threatened by anthropogenic land use change and agricultural intensification. The yield of many food crops is therefore negatively impacted because they benefit from biotic pollination. This is especially the case in the tropics. For instance, fruit set of Coffea arabica has been shown to increase by 10–30% in plantations with a high richness of bee species, possibly influenced by the availability of surrounding forest habitat. Here, we performed a global literature review to (1) assess how much animal pollination enhances coffee fruit set, and to (2) examine the importance of the amount of forest cover, distance to nearby forest and forest canopy density for bee species richness and coffee fruit set. Using a systematic literature review, we identified eleven case studies with a total of 182 samples where fruit set of C. arabica was assessed. We subsequently gathered forest data for all study sites from satellite imagery. We modelled the effects of open (all forest with a canopy density of ≥25%), closed (≥50%) and dense (≥75%) forests on pollinator richness and fruit set of coffee. Overall, we found that animal pollination increases coffee fruit set by ~18% on average. In only one of the case studies, regression results indicate a positive effect of dense forest on coffee fruit set, which increased with higher forest cover and shorter distance to the forest. Against expectations, forest cover and distance to open forest were not related to bee species richness and fruit set. In summary, we provide strong empirical support for the notion that animal pollinators increase coffee fruit set. Forest proximity had little overall influence on bee richness and coffee fruit set, except when farms were surrounded by dense tropical forests, potentially because these may provide high-quality habitats for bees pollinating coffee. We, therefore, advocate that more research is done to understand the biodiversity value of dense forest for pollinators, notably assessing the mechanisms underlying the importance of forest for pollinators and their pollination services.

Forests play a fundamental role in the economy, in climate change mitigation and in halting the loss of biodiversity. The economic value of goods and services provided to the societies by forests, including forest-based recreation, is highly dependent on the way in which forests are managed. On a European scale, forests are diverse and managed in many ways. Yet there has been no large-scale assessment to date of the economic value of forests recreation across Europe. In this paper we systematically apply stated and revealed preference-based valuation methods to investigate public preferences for forest visits in ten European countries (Austria, Belarus, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, Scotland, Switzerland). We observe substantial recreational value measured by the consumer surplus ranging from €55 to €648 per person per year (PPP adjusted, 2017). Compared to the gross value added of forestry and timber production, gross recreational benefits are, except for Belarus, on par or larger. Additionally, we find that forests of particular characteristics – more complex forest structures and forests with taller and older trees – are preferred and generate higher recreational values. These results provide a robust basis for evaluating the societal consequences of future forest management policies in Europe and the design of its forest landscapes.

Efficient biodiversity conservation may rest on support for transnational cooperation; particularly for migratory species. Support for transnational conservation efforts may hinge on key issues like the potential outcomes and whether any collaboration aspect is highlighted. We designed an experiment focused on conservation of open land habitats in Denmark and the Netherlands. We tested how support of Danish households depends on framing in a context of possible losses of habitats and on possible contributions from Dutch households to the conservation case. We further tested for presence of loss aversion in outcomes and income. We found that the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for gains in open land habitats at home tended to increase when habitat losses were possible. Framing in the context of others, Dutch households, contributing consistently affected Danes' WTP for increasing protected habitat areas and for avoiding habitat losses. And the less Dutch households contributed, the more Danish households contributed with the converse also being true. Our results suggest that overall support for habitat conservation for migratory birds may be higher in cases where a risk of habitat losses exists. Results also suggest that support for conservation at home increase when respondents perceive that they share the challenge with other countries.

Real option applications in conservation have showed that with irreversibility and uncertainty about the value of preservation decisions may change. More specifically, returns must be high enough to also pay out the value of waiting if conversion into more intensive land uses is to become optimal. However, many environmental policies today focus on nature restoration, where conversion has previously taken place. In this study, we therefore reverse the problem and ask when to afforest productive agricultural land, when we face uncertainty about the value of ecosystem services delivered by afforestation. Furthermore, projects such as afforestation are often associated with joint production of forest products and environmental goods, like biodiversity, hunting, groundwater production, carbon storage, recreation etc. Thus, we extend state-of-the-art models to handle two additive ecosystem services, which both are uncertain and may be correlated. The joint production aspect increases the value of conversion, the stopping value, and hence the incentives to afforest. Increasing uncertainty decreases this incentive, as expected. However, contrary to the existing literature evaluating exclusive options, less than perfect correlation between the values of future ecosystem services decreases the value of the real option and increases the set of states, where afforestation is the preferred decision. This causes afforestation to be attractive for a wider set of states of the world than otherwise and has implications where joint production is feasible. We discuss these findings and the potential application of this analysis for handling real options with joint production in other research domains.

The forestry sector is constantly looking for ways for making data-driven decisions and improving efficiency. The application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) allow the users to go beyond looking at simple key performance indicators. Benchmarking is one of the most common tools in business for improving efficiency and competitiveness. This study searched for benchmarking studies in Web of Science until December 2020. It reviewed 56 benchmarking studies in forestry and discusses the potential advantages of using benchmarking in forestry. More than 80% of the studies apply DEA. This review found that almost half of the benchmarking studies in forestry have attempted to estimate the efficiency of forest management organizations at regional scale, mostly being public or state-owned forest districts. A bit more than one-third of the studies have focused on benchmarking forest industries and one-fifth, benchmarking of forest operations. Forest management organizations mainly applied benchmarking for internal comparison and forest industries entirely focused on competitive benchmarking. Surprisingly, in most cases the studies do not necessarily overlap geographically with forest rich countries (e.g., Russian Federation or Brazil). A number of studies address multiple criteria. The future potential for applying automatic data transfer from harvest machines to interactive benchmarking systems are discussed. Finally, the paper discusses the advantages and weaknesses of benchmarking and future research on improving usefulness and usability of benchmarking in forest businesses.

Global biodiversity is under pressure from human activities, and the effort for nature conservation and restoration and the allocation of economic resources for biodiversity policies remain insufficient. In such a context, volunteers can play an important role as a resource in nature conservation projects if their recreational activities interact with the objectives of nature management. In recent years, the number of volunteers in conservation work has increased in Denmark, with more people volunteering to contribute to nature conservation projects. Ensuring that volunteers remain motivated and engaged is crucial for the success of such conservation projects. In this study, we evaluated the motivation among members of grazing organizations, an activity that represents the most prominent voluntary nature conservation initiative in Denmark. We applied an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and an ordinal regression to analyze survey data from 25 Danish grazing organizations. We found that five motivational factors determine the engagement of the volunteers, namely social, nature value, instrumental, identification, and personal benefit. Whereas the social, nature value and personal benefit are factors also identified in the existing literature, the instrumental and identification factors add new perspectives to the motivation of environmental volunteers. We found that place attachment is an important driver, and that the chairpersons/coordinators of the grazing organizations especially emphasized the sharing of values and knowledge with their members as a driver. Lastly, volunteers were reluctant to support the idea of forming a more formal setup in terms of a “grazing organization union”.

Pollination by wild pollinators is a key ecosystem service threatened by anthropogenic-induced land-use change. The proximity to natural habitat has previously been shown to positively affect pollinator communities and improve crop yield and quality but empirical evidence is limited from most parts of the World. Here, across six farms in Southern Thailand, we investigated the significance of landscape-level effects of natural habitat (proportion of and distance to evergreen forest) on both visitation rate and richness of pollinators as well as fruit set of guava (Psidium guajava L.), a local economically-important crop in the tropics. Overall, the most abundant pollinator was the Asian honey bee Apis cerana (39% of all visits) and different species of stingless bees (37%). We found that pollinator richness was unrelated to the proportion and distance to evergreen forest, however, the proportion of forest within a 1, 5 and 10 km radius had a significant positive impact on visitation rate of wild pollinators. Still, neither the various forest parameters nor pollinator visitation rate showed a significant impact on fruit set of guava, perhaps because guava self-pollinates. This illustrates that landscape-level degradation of natural habitat may negatively impact pollinator communities without diminishing the crop yield of the farmers.

Most of Australia's native forest vegetation is located on private land, and conservation success often depends on landholders' participation in bush management programs. To understand landholders' preferences for these programs'attributes, we surveyed 251 landholders within historical deforestation hot spots across Queensland, Australia. Landholders were asked to make pairwise comparisons of 10 nonfinancial incentives and one financial compensation scheme. Based on a latent class analysis, we identify three distinct landholder classes. We discuss the implication of our results for the future design of native vegetation management and conservation policy instruments.

Market-like mechanisms for biodiversity offsetting have emerged globally as supposedly cost-effective approaches for mitigating the impacts of development. In reality, offset buyers have commonly found that required credits are scarce and/or expensive. One response has been to seek improved market functionality, increasing eligible offset supply by allowing greater flexibility in the offset trading rules. These include increasing the size of geographical trading areas and expanding out-of-kind trades (‘geographical’ and ‘ecological’ flexibility). We summarise the arguments for and against flexibility, ultimately arguing that increasing flexibility undermines the achievement of No Net Loss (or Net Gain) of biodiversity where high-quality governance is lacking. We argue expanding out-of-kind trading often increases the pool of potentially eligible offsets with limited conservation justification. This interferes with vital information regarding the scarcity of the impacted biodiversity feature, thereby disincentivising impact avoidance. When a biodiversity feature under threat of development is scarce, expensive offsets are an essential feature of the economics of offsetting which communicate that scarcity, not a problem to be regulated away. We present examples where increasing ecological flexibility may be justifying the loss of conservation priorities. We also discuss how increasing geographical flexibility might compromise the additionality principle. We highlight alternative mechanisms for enhancing offset supply without the risks associated with increasing flexibility, including reducing policy uncertainty and improving engagement and awareness to increase landholder participation. Although there are legitimate reasons for increasing offsetting flexibility in some specific contexts, we argue that the biodiversity risks are considerable, and potentially undermine ‘no net loss’ outcomes.

Coordination of conservation policies and conservation actions between countries is expected to reduce overall costs and increase effectiveness. It rests on the assumption that, as a global public good, the provision of biodiversity conservation is independent of geographical and political jurisdictions. However, from a welfare economic perspective this assumption requires testing and justification. Indeed, distance may matter, as may the country of provision. This study applies a choice experiment to estimate individuals' marginal willingness to pay for comparable biodiversity conservation measures and outcomes across country borders, and with different distances from their place of residence to conservation locations in Denmark and in Southern Sweden. The case is designed to distinguish the effect of distance from the effect of country of residence versus country of provision. We find a clear and distinguishable effect of both location and country of provision. We find distance-related attributes to reflect bridge tolls and per-kilometre transport costs, and Swedes and Danes to prefer provision in their own country, over provision in the neighbouring country. The results of this study may be useful in discussing cooperation on regional and even global biodiversity conservation efforts.

This study applied a structured expert elicitation technique, the Delphi method, to identify the impacts of five forest management alternatives and several forest characteristics on the preservation of biodiversity and habitats in the boreal zone of the Nordic countries. The panel of experts consisted of a number of scientists in the field. The data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire distributed via e-mail in two rounds. Our findings demonstrated that an increase in management intensity for timber production is likely to have a negative effect on the biodiversity and habitats with intense management alternatives such as a “clear-cutting system” resulting in the strongest adverse impact. The presence of deadwood, mixture of trees of different sizes and increase in stand age were expected to promote preservation of biodiversity and habitats. However, there was little agreement between experts regarding the functional form that relationships between preservation of biodiversity and forest characteristics take. The Delphi method was found useful in investigating the existing knowledge base and capable of contributing to a more comprehensive assessment for decision support as a valuable addition to on-going empirical and modeling efforts. The findings could assist forest managers in developing forest management strategies that generate benefits from timber production while taking into account the trade-offs with biodiversity goals.

The majority of existing studies of recreational preferences and forest characteristics focused on single stand attributes and demonstrated that people prefer stands with visual variation. However, it may be too simple since most people experience more than one stand when visiting a forest. This study aims at evaluating the effects of variation both within and between stands on recreational values. A choice experiment (CE) was applied to elicit people's preferences for forest types on their next recreational visit. Each alternative is presented with drawings of three forest stands which differ with respect to tree species, height (age) and distance to the site, the latter representing the cost factor – willingness-to-travel. Respondents also compose their ideal recreational forest by selecting three types of stands from the catalogue of drawings. We find that mixed tree species are preferred compared to monocultures. Stands with trees of varying height (uneven-aged stands) are preferred over stands consisting of trees of the same height (even-aged ones). Variation between stands is found to contribute positively to recreational value, and in some instances, this may outweigh contribution of variation within a stand. Comparing respondents' composition of their ideal forest with elicited preferences from the CE, confirm these findings.

Within the past few decades, the idea of global Ecosystem Services (ES) has moved center stage in environmental and sustainability debates. The academic and policy discourse behind Ecosystem Service protection appears to have changed from a more ecological focus on habitat restoration to a predominantly economic one revolving around human well-being. The aim of this paper is to unfold the coupling between scientific expertise and security in the changing governance of ES. We employ a ‘securitization’ lens to advance our understanding of the recent change in the governance of ecosystems, as we reflect on the role of scientific expertise at the boundary between science and security. Empirically, we analyze how scientific experts, as securitizing actors, frame the degradation and loss of ES as an existential threat to human security thereby justifying measures to reverse these trends. In order to trace how the voices of scientific experts shape policies to govern ES we apply bibliometric analysis and an opinion-based survey to first identify who produces the scientific knowledge published, and then follow how key scientific experts link to policy-making arenas and use security framings. Lastly, we discuss the implications of the shifting discourse surrounding ES, and we reflect on our own positionality and approach, as we string together our findings to contribute to the debate about environmental expertise and governance, and the authority of scientific knowledge.

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual-level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners' willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner-choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.

Emerging policies worldwide require biodiversity gains as compensation for losses associated with economic development, seeking to achieve ‘no net loss’ (NNL). Multipliers – factors by which gains are larger than associated losses – can be crucial for true NNL. Here, we review the theoretical literature on multipliers. Then, we collate data on multipliers implemented in practice, representing the most complete such assessment to date. Finally, we explore remaining design gaps relating to social, ethical and governance considerations. Multiplier values should theoretically be tens or hundreds when considering, for example, ecological uncertainties. We propose even larger multipliers required to satisfy previously ignored considerations – including prospect theory, taboo trades, and power relationships. Conversely, our data analyses show that multipliers are smaller in practice, regularly < 10.0, and have not changed significantly in magnitude over time. We recommend that NNL policymakers provide explicit multiplier guidelines, require larger multipliers where appropriate, and ensure transparent reporting of multipliers used. Further research is necessary to determine reasons for the implementation gap we have identified. At the same time, there is a need to explore when and where the social, ethical and governance requirements for NNL reviewed here can be met through approaches other than multipliers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

We propose a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis approach as a value-focused decision support tool for evaluating land use change decisions affecting multiple ecosystem services. In an empirical case study concerned with creating a robust and interconnected network of natural areas in a Danish municipality, we first conduct a biophysical and economic baseline mapping of ecosystem services. We then construct a spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis model which is utilized to identify candidate areas for inclusion in the network. We define a base scenario for future land use in the area, where all criteria have equal weight, and assess the outcome in terms of welfare economic benefits of ecosystem services and opportunity cost of reducing forest and agricultural production. As weights in multi-criteria analysis is innately a subjective task, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using four corner solution scenarios. The analyses illustrate the possible range of impacts and highlight the specific trade-offs between different ecosystem services. We argue that a multi-criteria decision analysis approach will help inform decision makers in a structured and informative way when considering future land use changes.

No net loss (NNL) biodiversity policies mandating the application of a mitigation hierarchy (avoid, minimize, remediate, offset) to the ecological impacts of built infrastructure are proliferating globally. However, little is known about their effectiveness at achieving NNL outcomes. We reviewed the English‐language peer‐reviewed literature (capturing 15,715 articles), and identified 32 reports that observed ecological outcomes from NNL policies, including >300,000 ha of biodiversity offsets. Approximately one‐third of NNL policies and individual biodiversity offsets reported achieving NNL, primarily in wetlands, although most studies used widely criticized area‐based outcome measures. The most commonly cited reason for success was applying high offset multipliers (large offset area relative to the impacted area). We identified large gaps between the global implementation of offsets and the evidence for their effectiveness: despite two‐thirds of the world's biodiversity offsets being applied in forested ecosystems, we found none of four studies demonstrated successful NNL outcomes for forested habitats or species. We also found no evidence for NNL achievement using avoided loss offsets (impacts offset by protecting existing habitat elsewhere). Additionally, we summarized regional variability in compliance rates with NNL policies. As global infrastructural expansion accelerates, we must urgently improve the evidence‐base around efforts to mitigate development impacts on biodiversity. No net loss (NNL) biodiversity policies mandating the application of a mitigation hierarchy (avoid, minimize, remediate, offset) to the ecological impacts of built infrastructure are proliferating globally. However, little is known about their effectiveness at achieving NNL outcomes. We reviewed the English‐language peer‐reviewed literature (capturing 15,715 articles), and identified 32 reports that observed ecological outcomes from NNL policies, including >300,000 ha of biodiversity offsets. Approximately one‐third of NNL policies and individual biodiversity offsets reported achieving NNL, primarily in wetlands, although most studies used widely criticized area‐based outcome measures. The most commonly cited reason for success was applying high offset multipliers (large offset area relative to the impacted area). We identified large gaps between the global implementation of offsets and the evidence for their effectiveness: despite two‐thirds of the world's biodiversity offsets being applied in forested ecosystems, we found none of four studies demonstrated successful NNL outcomes for forested habitats or species. We also found no evidence for NNL achievement using avoided loss offsets (impacts offset by protecting existing habitat elsewhere). Additionally, we summarized regional variability in compliance rates with NNL policies. As global infrastructural expansion accelerates, we must urgently improve the evidence‐base around efforts to mitigate development impacts on biodiversity.

This study examines the role of childhood experience in forest recreational practices at adulthood. It investigates the effect of visitation frequency and type of settlement during childhood on frequency of visits at adulthood and analyses variations in nine European countries including Austria, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, France, Poland, Slovakia, and UK. The data are collected through a representative online survey and results are based on a generalized ordered logit model in which frequency of forest visits is considered as an ordered categorical variable. Childhood experience is found to be a significant factor determining frequency of forest visits at adulthood. In addition, current residential settlement, distance to the nearest forest, and other socioeconomic factors influence frequency of forest visits. The study findings show the importance of forest accessibility to children for a development of better recreational habits that support active mobility, sustainability and healthy lifestyles.

International efforts to protect biodiversity depend on transnational collaboration and on public support for transnational policies to be implemented. Yet, we know little about what may compel citizens to support such transnational conservation efforts. In this paper, we design a lab-in-the-field experiment to explore how different framings and information about support shared across borders affect a citizen's conservation donations. Using a dictator game, we ask for donations from individuals in Denmark, Spain, and Ghana for the protection of natural habitats of the migratory Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus). We focus on citizens from Denmark, Spain and Ghana since these countries lie along the harrier's migratory route. We found that information affects donation behavior, albeit differently in each country. Our Danish and Ghanaian participants contributed more when (1) pre-donation information stressed that transnational collaboration is needed, and (2) they were told that a measure of their group's donation would be forwarded to other participants. In contrast, our Spanish participants donated less overall and were insensitive to the information treatments. The results document large differences across countries in supporting behavior in such transnational conservation settings and could influence how international conservation organizations organize and shape fundraising for their work.

Performance of mutual fund selection methods is typically assessed using long samples (long time series). It is, however, very often of interest how well the methods perform in shorter samples. We carry out an extensive simulation study based on an empirically motivated skill distribution. For both short and long samples, we present evidence of large differences in performance between popular fund selection methods. In an empirical analysis, we show that the differences documented by the simulations are empirically relevant.

We introduce a simple and intuitive approach of modeling and forecasting correlations for use in portfolio optimization. The model is composite in nature and consists of elements based on a bivariate realized volatility model. Importantly, our framework allows for volatility spill-overs between assets which provide an edge compared to competing models when forming portfolios. We apply the model to high-frequency data for commodity markets and demonstrate significant economic gains for an investor basing portfolio decisions on our modeling framework. This gain is significant in economic terms, even after imposing realistic constraints on short selling and portfolio turnover.

Biodiversity conservation efforts in Europe have traditionally focused on farmland and open nature areas such as grasslands, heathlands and meadows, while little attention has been devoted to conservation actions in forest. Using detailed information on the geographical distribution of about 900 terrestrial species in Denmark we apply systematic conservation planning techniques to identify how to protect biodiversity at the lowest cost to society. The results suggest that conservation actions in forest should be given a higher priority. Thus, three to four times the number of forest species are protected per million € compared with species living in open land natural areas. Furthermore, a gap analysis finds the current designation of Natura 2000 and other protected areas is skewed toward open land natural areas, and insufficient to meet the conservation targets on forest species.

‘No net loss’ (NNL) biodiversity policies, which seek to neutralize ongoing biodiversity losses caused by economic development activities, are applicable worldwide. Yet, there has been no global assessment concerning practical measures actually implemented under NNL policies. Here, we systematically map the global implementation of biodiversity offsets (‘offsets’)—a crucial yet controversial NNL practice. We find, first, that offsets occupy an area up to two orders of magnitude larger than previously suggested: 12,983 offset projects extending over $$153,679_{ - 64,223}^{ + 25,013}$$ km2 across 37 countries. Second, offsets are far from homogeneous in implementation, and emerging economies (particularly in South America) are more dominant in terms of global offsetting area than expected. Third, most offset projects are very small, and the overwhelming majority (99.7%) arise through regulatory requirements rather than prominent project finance safeguards. Our database provides a sampling frame via which future studies could evaluate the efficacy of NNL policies. 'No net loss’ biodiversity policies seek to offset biodiversity losses caused by economic development. This study assesses the global extent of such biodiversity offsets, finding that they occupy an area much larger than recognized and that most are small and implemented due to regulatory requirements.

Many economic theories imply a linear relationship with constant parameters between financial or macroeconomic variables. While the linear model with constant parameters is often disputed in the literature, this model specification is rarely tested. This paper proposes a new and intuitively appealing test for model specification tailored for applications in finance and macroeconomics. Importantly, the test allows for autocorrelation, which is often present in these applications. We demonstrate impressive properties of the test in a realistic simulation study and obtain important insights from empirical applications.

‘No net loss’ (NNL) conservation policies seek to address development impacts on biodiversity. There have been no peer-reviewed multinational assessments concerning the actual implementation of NNL policies to date. Such assessments would facilitate more informed debates on the validity of NNL for conservation, but assessing implementation requires data. Here, we explore data transparency concerning NNL implementation, with four European countries providing a case study.Biodiversity offsets (offsets) are the most tangible outcome of NNL policy. Using an expert network to locate all offset datasets available within the public domain, we collated information on offset projects implemented in France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden. Implementation data for offsets were found to be non-transparent, but the degree of transparency varies widely by country. We discuss barriers preventing data transparency — including a perceived lack of necessity, lack of common protocols for collecting data, and a lack of resources to do so. For the data we collected we find that most offsets in Europe: are not within protected areas; involve active restoration; and, compensate for infrastructure development. The area occupied by European offsets is at least of the order ~ 102 km2.Transparent national NNL databases are essential for meeting good practice NNL principles, but are not currently available in Europe. We discuss what such databases might require to support evaluation of NNL policy effectiveness by researchers, the conservation community and policymakers.

Studies on scientific production of climate change knowledge show a geographical bias against the developing and more vulnerable regions of the world. If there is limited knowledge exchange between regions, this may deepen global knowledge divides and, thus, potentially hamper adaptive capacities. Consequently, there is a need to further understand this bias, and, particularly, link it with the exchange of knowledge across borders. We use a world-wide geographical distribution of author affiliations in >15,000 scientific climate change publications to show that (1) research production mainly takes place in richer, institutionally well-developed countries with cooler climates and high climate footprints, and (2) the network of author affiliations is structured into distinct modules of countries with strong common research interests, but with little knowledge exchange between modules. These modules are determined mainly by geographical proximity, common climates, and similar political and economic characteristics. This indicates that political-economic, social and educational-scientific initiatives targeted to enhance local research production and collaborations across geographical-climate module borders may help diminish global knowledge divides. We argue that this could strengthen adaptive capacity in the most vulnerable regions of the world. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The need to integrate non-market ecosystem services into decision-making is widely acknowledged. Despite the exponentially growing body of literature, trade-offs between services are still poorly understood. We conducted a systematic review of published literature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland) on the integration of non-market forest ecosystem services into decision-making. The aim of the review was two-fold: (1) to provide an overview of coverage of biophysical and socio-economic assessments of non-market ecosystem services in relation to forest management; (2) to determine the extent of the integration of biophysical and socio-economic models of these services into decision support models. Our findings reveal the need for wider coverage of non-market ecosystem services and evidence-based modelling of how forest management regimes affect ecosystem services. Furthermore, temporal and spatial modelling of ecosystem impacts remains a challenge. We observed a few exampl...

Acting to demarcate the spatial limits of decision-making processes, socio-political boundaries are an inevitable part of a human-dominated world. Rarely coincident with ecological boundaries, and thus having no ecological functional role by themselves, they nevertheless impose substantial costs on biodiversity and ecosystem conservation by fragmenting ownership, governance, and management. Where boundaries are in place, a lack of coordination on either side of a boundary affects the efficiency and efficacy of ecosystem management. We suggest four research pathways which will enhance our ability to address the adverse effects of socio-political borders on conservation: (i) scale-matching, (ii) quantification of the mutual economic benefits of conservation across boundaries, (iii) determining transboundary societal values, and (iv) acknowledging the importance of stakeholder behaviour and incentives.

We present a new approach to selecting active mutual funds that uses both holdings and return information to eliminate funds with predicted inferior performance through a sequence of pair-wise comparisons. Our methodology determines both the number of skilled funds and their identity, funds identified ex-ante as being superior earn substantially higher risk-adjusted returns than top funds identified by conventional alpha ranking methods. Importantly, we find strong evidence of variation in the breadth of the set of funds identified as superior, as well as fluctuations in the style and industry exposures of such funds over time and across different volatility states.

We consider a hunting area and a wildlife reserve and answer the question: How does clever migration decision affect the social optimal and the private optimal hunting levels and population stocks? We analyze this in a model allowing for two-way migration between hunting and reserve areas, where the populations' migration decisions depend on both hunting pressure and relative population densities. In the social optimum a pure stress effect on the behavior of smart wildlife exists. This implies that the population level in the wildlife reserve tends to increase and the popu- lation level in the hunting area and hunting levels tend to decrease. On the other hand, the effect on stock tends to reduce the population in the wildlife reserve and increase the population in the hunting area and thereby also in- crease hunting. In the case of the private optimum, open-access is assumed and we find that the same qualitative results arise when comparing a situa- tion with and without stress effects, but of course at a higher level of hunting. We also show that when net social benefits of hunting dominate the net social benefits of populations, wildlife reserves are optimally placed in areas of low carrying capacity and vice versa.

We examine the dynamics of household vulnerability during the past 30 years within three different social-ecological upland systems in Lijiang, Yunnan. Interviews were conducted to construct coupled human-environmental timelines to facilitate the understanding of livelihood dynamics in the context of more general changes that constitute both constraints and opportunities. The results indicate that significant livelihood changes including specialization, diversification and migration have been primarily driven by socio-political influences. Overall vulnerability of households has decreased differently across villages. Nevertheless, climate change is a concern as households perceive increasing temperature, declining precipitation and unpredictable extreme events. In the future, households’ vulnerability might increase since important components of current livelihoods remain climate sensitive. Moreover, environmentally destructive practices such as illegal logging might reinforce the negative impacts of climate change and thus undermine sustainable adaptation. We examine the dynamics of household vulnerability during the past 30 years within three different social-ecological upland systems in Lijiang, Yunnan. Interviews were conducted to construct coupled human-environmental timelines to facilitate the understanding of livelihood dynamics in the context of more general changes that constitute both constraints and opportunities. The results indicate that significant livelihood changes including specialization, diversification and migration have been primarily driven by socio-political influences. Overall vulnerability of households has decreased differently across villages. Nevertheless, climate change is a concern as households perceive increasing temperature, declining precipitation and unpredictable extreme events. In the future, households’ vulnerability might increase since important components of current livelihoods remain climate sensitive. Moreover, environmentally destructive practices such as illegal logging might reinforce the negative impacts of climate change and thus undermine sustainable adaptation.

The alarming rate of ecosystem degradation has raised the need for ecological restoration throughout different biomes and continents. North European forests may appear as one of the least vulnerable ecosystems from a global perspective, since forest cover is not rapidly decreasing and many ecosystem services remain at high level. However, extensive areas of northern forests are heavily exploited and have lost a major part of their biodiversity value. There is a strong requirement to restore these areas towards a more natural condition in order to meet the targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Several northern countries are now taking up this challenge by restoring forest biodiversity with increasing intensity. The ecology and biodiversity of boreal forests are relatively well understood making them a good model for restoration activities in many other forest ecosystems. Here we introduce northern forests as an ecosystem, discuss the historical and recent human impact and provide a brief status report on the ecological restoration projects and research already conducted there. Based on this discussion, we argue that before any restoration actions commence, the ecology of the target ecosystem should be established with the need for restoration carefully assessed and the outcome properly monitored. Finally, we identify the most important challenges that need to be solved in order to carry out efficient restoration with powerful and long-term positive impacts on biodiversity: coping with unpredictability, maintaining connectivity in time and space, assessment of functionality, management of conflicting interests and social restrictions and ensuring adequate funding.

The supply of ecosystem goods and services is spatially heterogeneous and the provision of such goods and services is also influenced by landowners' willingness to provide. This is particularly the case in countries such as Denmark where many properties are privately owned. However, little attention has previously been given to the relationship between farmers' willingness to provide a good or service and the spatial heterogeneity associated with their demand. In this study farmers' willingness to participate in afforestation contracts are investigated using a choice experiment of various contracts with the purpose to provide: groundwater protection, biodiversity conservation or recreation. We employ a random parameter logit model to analyse the relationship between farmers' preferences for afforestation purposes and the spatial variables; groundwater interests, species richness, human population density, forest cover and hunting. The results show that increasing human population density significantly increases farmers' required compensation with respect to recreational activities. Furthermore, there is a significant effect of hunting which decreases compensation required by the farmers to enter an afforestation project. The share of groundwater and forest cover does not significantly influence preferences. We conclude that spatial variations should be considered when designing conservation policies