1. Using Generative Models to Produce Realistic Populations of UK Windstorms
- Author
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Tsoi, Yee Chun, Hunt, Kieran M. R., Shaffrey, Len, Badii, Atta, Dixon, Richard, and Nicotina, Ludovico
- Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Computer Science - Machine Learning - Abstract
This study evaluates the potential of generative models, trained on historical ERA5 reanalysis data, for simulating windstorms over the UK. Four generative models, including a standard GAN, a WGAN-GP, a U-net diffusion model, and a diffusion-GAN were assessed based on their ability to replicate spatial and statistical characteristics of windstorms. Different models have distinct strengths and limitations. The standard GAN displayed broader variability and limited alignment on the PCA dimensions. The WGAN-GP had a more balanced performance but occasionally misrepresented extreme events. The U-net diffusion model produced high-quality spatial patterns but consistently underestimated windstorm intensities. The diffusion-GAN performed better than the other models in general but overestimated extremes. An ensemble approach combining the strengths of these models could potentially improve their overall reliability. This study provides a foundation for such generative models in meteorological research and could potentially be applied in windstorm analysis and risk assessment., Comment: 42 pages, 14 figures, 6 tables. This work has been submitted to Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems. Copyright in this work may be transferred without further notice
- Published
- 2025