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The North African countries’ (NACs) production and export structure suffers from double constraints: insufficient diversification and weak sophistication. This study assesses the impact of diversification/sophistication variables on growth in the NACs and verifies that the current export structure is indeed a constraint to economic development. We estimate a growth model as a Barro's regression (conditional-convergence model) using panel data. The factors that determine export diversification and sophistication suggest which levers and actions would firstly allow NACs to diversify their exports to higher added-value products and secondly take the existing products to a higher level of sophistication. Our recommendations highlight the role of various policies and stakeholders.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study how proximity affects the trade-migration link. By focusing on two case studies, France and Egypt, the authors explore if migrants promote and help to deal with market heterogeneity in international markets. Using an ethnic network approach the authors also test for interactions between the characteristics of migrants and proximity issues. Design/methodology/approach – The paper builds on two case studies to illustrate the main working hypotheses. The main framework is that of ethnic networks, proximity ties, and market heterogeneity. Static and dynamic panel data methods are employed when estimating extended gravity trade equations. The authors account for country-pair fixed effects and instrument by lagged stocks of migrants, in order to deal with bilateral commonalities and endogeneity issues in the estimation procedure. Findings – The paper provides evidence on how proximity enhances trade. Additional trade effects are found for countries sharing closer ...

North African countries (NACs) are particularly concerned with climate change because of their geographical position (close to deserts) and their economic dependence on agriculture. We aim to provide additional insight into the impact of climate on agriculture for NACs, through the example of Tunisia. We first use disaggregated data, both at the geographical level (for 24 regions in Tunisia) and at the product level (cereals, olives, citrus fruit, tomatoes, potatoes and palm trees). Second, through spatial panel data analysis, we explore both the time and spatial dimensions of the data. This makes it possible to consider spatial interactions in agricultural production and the role of climate in these spatial spillover effects. Finally, the model not only includes direct climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, but also indirect climate-related variables such as the stock of water in dams and groundwater. Results show that Tunisian agriculture is strongly dependent on the direct effects of temperature and precipitation for all the products considered at the regional level. The presence of dams and groundwater generally has a positive effect on agricultural production for irrigated crops with interesting spillover effects with neighboring regions. However, this impact is still considerably lessened in the case of detrimental climate conditions (indirect effect). These results raise the question of the sustainability of the growth in agricultural production in Tunisia in the case of significant climate change.

This paper explores the real convergence process of 360 regional areas in Maghreb countries using a non-parametric approach based on classical and spatial Markov chains. This approach investigates the long-term spatial associations between regional units. The advantage of this method is that is does not require the use of control variables which are very often non available at a disaggregated geographical level. We show that there is a trend of regional convergence of GDP per capita in Mena regions. However, this process is very slow and there is an important spatial clustering movement. We also show that although almost 75% of the regional areas seem to converge towards a higher GDP per capita level in the stationary state, 25% are trapped in low development trends. These results suggest that the economic performance of a given region strongly depends of that of its neighbor regions. This in turn implies reconsidering regional development policies within these countries.

Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) have recently become a central issue for economists and policy makers. Based on a new database developed by the World Bank on five Middle East and North African(MENA) countries at a very detailed product level, this article provides calculations of the average tariff equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs in these countries. A second contribution is the development of an original empirical model with detailed trade costs. This makes it possible to provide the assessment of these NTMs impacts as well as other trade costs ones on the trade of goods in these countries. This analysis is also extended to the trade of 15 service sectors, through the use of the updated GTAP database. Results show that NTMs are very significant in the selected MENA countries. The model also shows that NTMs are significantly trade reducing in almost all MENA countries, especially Sanitary and Phytosanitary(SPS) measures. NTMs in services are also significantly trade reducing, especially in Maghreb countries. The study shows that not all NTMs must necessarily been reduced or removed, but the ones which are particular trade-reducing must be paid particular attention. In addition, the governments should also progress toward either mutual recognition, or the adoption of international standards especially in relation to technical standards.

This article aims to provide new insights into trade effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), using an imperfect competition framework. The model combines the new gravity model approach with supply-demand export equations in imperfect competition. In this regard, the role of scale economies, product varieties and expectations is explored. Facing the lack of international data on scale economies, we also develop a translog production system which makes it possible to obtain reliable estimates of this factor. For a more rigorous treatment of the endogeneity problem in the model, we make use of an instrumental GMM panel estimator. Results show limited effects of GAFTA on regional trade in imperfect competition, due to market segmentation and the predominance of inter-industry trade. In addition, the fitted intra-GAFTA trade values are far beyond the actual ones. This suggests that GAFTA countries could benefit from deeper regional trade integration. In this regard, the Arab Spring creates new opp...

This paper tests the relationship between climate and trade of agricultural products in MENA countries, using bilateral data disaggregated at product level. The model includes gravity control variables and addresses the selection bias with disaggregated production variables in a Heckman two-step procedure. Results show that a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation significantly reduce exports and increase imports in MENA countries. This raises the question of food security in these countries.

This article shows first that, despite significant trade gains expected from the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements, especially the Barcelona Agreement, actual gains are positive but small. The reasons for such small effects are investigated. They include delays in the implementation of the tariff schedule, the lack of European Union (EU) market access for agricultural products, the persistence of non-tariff barriers, the lack of regional integration in terms of services and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the role of rules of origins, the impact of inappropriate specialization, etc. This appraisal makes it possible to suggest several policy options which are necessary to optimize the effects of the Euromed partnership. In this regard, the Arab Spring creates new opportunities to reinforce trade integration in this area.

This paper examines the impact of market and supply accessibility on the geographic distribution of manufacturing sectors in the Euro-Mediterranean area. The evolution of market and supplier access in the area is first investigated. Then, market and supplier access, production cost and regional integration are focused on as the main determinants of industrial location. A deeper regional integration agreements can act as an important dispersion force, driving the location of manufacturing in new member states and Mediterranean countries.

The present study proposes an updated and extended quantitative assessment of the EU-South Korea FTA, through a new version of MIRAGE CGE model. Several distinctive contributions are offered. Firstly, the quantitative assessment takes into account non-tariff barriers (NTBs) as well as tariffs. Second, it considers trade liberalization of goods, services as well as FDI (establishment). A third contribution is that simulations of policy changes are closely aligned with the actual agreement for each industry and service category. Finally, this article relies on recent techniques for calculating the tariff equivalents of NTBs following Kee et al. (2009). The main findings show that the EU may increase trade performance in several industries (chemicals, machinery, other manufactured and food products) as well as in specific services to a lesser extent (business, insurance and transport services ). On the other hand, Korea takes advantage of the agreement for specific manufactured products (textiles, leather/clothing, cars and other transport equipment).

This paper aims at investigating the productivity spillover effects of FDI inflows to ASEAN countries. A first contribution is related to the development of an original theoretical model of complex multinational firms which simultaneously explores backward and forward linkages due to FDI. As a second contribution, the significance of vertical productivity spillovers in ASEAN countries is tested empirically. For that purpose, and given the lack of data at firm level, the causal relationship between FDI and productivity is investigated by using countryspecific data. Several alternative causality tests are implemented, including both direct and indirect approaches. The main results give strong evidence that FDI causes productivity growth in ASEAN countries. These results correlate the prediction of the theoretical model, which provide a strong support for the relationship between FDI and productivity spillovers.

This paper focuses on the innovation gap between countries in the Euro-Mediterranean (Euromed) area and its implications in terms of growth and convergence. Using a large set of innovation variables, we estimate a growth model à la Barro which shows that differences in innovation between countries explain differences in growth of per capita GDP within this area. The model relies on specific estimators which address the endogeneity problem.These are the fixed effects decomposition variable (FEDV) estimator, the Hausman and Taylor estimator (HT) as well as the error component two-stage least squares instrumental variables estimator (EC2SLQ IV). Finally, the implications for MENA countries are investigated through the estimation of a convergence model, which shows that differences in innovation between MENA countries explain differences in the convergence process of these countries toward EU GDP per capita. These results have important policy implications which are discussed in the conclusion.

A partir de developpements recents de la theorie des migrations, cet article propose un modele qui inclut a la fois les determinants traditionnels et nouveaux des migrations internationales. Une application empirique est egalement proposee concernant les migrations des pays tiers mediterraneens (ptm) vers l’Union europeenne (ue). Les resultats montrent que les migrations ne s’expliquent pas seulement par les ecarts de richesse entre pays. Elles dependent aussi d’une serie d’autres variables parmi lesquelles l’inegalite des revenus, les differences de taux de chomage et de cout de la vie entre les pays, le niveau d’education des migrants, les reseaux humains, les effets frontieres, les politiques migratoires ainsi que certaines variables non economiques, comme l’environnement, le climat et la religion.

In the past 10 years Iran has been emerging as a major car producer in the world. However, due to delays in economic reforms, Iranian car exports have not increased as much as production. This paper presents a first estimation of the Iranian export potential in the car industry. Based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation, an empirical bilateral trade model is proposed. It includes sectoral variables (car production, import tariffs), as well as other original variables, such as expectations and hysteresis. We then develop a dataset which includes the 40 major car-exporting countries in the world, 34 importing countries, a 10-year time period as well as four car production groups. The model is then estimated by using alternative panel data estimators, such as those of Hausman and Taylor and dynamic estimators as well as transformed variables estimators. Export potential is finally calculated from the residuals of the model. Results show that Iranian current car exports are about 100 times less than their fitted values. This indicates that there is a significant export potential for Iran, especially toward India, China, Russia, as well as smaller neighbours (Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asian countries). As a result, Iran could become the major auto supplier in the Middle East. However, this requires the completion and success of ongoing economic reforms.

In 1997, fourteen Arab countries concluded an agreement, aimed at achieving the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) by 1.1.2007 at the latest. This paper provides a first ex-post appraisal of the GAFTA agreement's trade effects. Based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation, we estimate a panel data model which covers trade within the GAFTA area as well as with 35 other reference countries, over the period 1988-2005. Several estimators are presented, especially transformed fixed-effects, Hausman and Taylor as well as a GMM dynamic estimator. As a main finding, the calculation of gross trade creation shows that regional trade has increased by 20% since GAFTA has been implemented.• JEL Classification: F 15

A two-factors, two-goods, three-countries general equilibrium model is developed to assess the effects of a Free Trade Area (FTA) on pollution emissions. It also makes it possible to compare the effects of a discriminating commercial policy with alternative–non discriminating–policies, such as full trade liberalization or non-discriminating protection. A theoretical model is first developed in order to take into account country-differences in factor endowment, environmental regulation, pollution abatement technology, marginal disutilities of pollution, as well as terms of trade effects. This model is subsequently calibrated and computed in accordance with empirical evidence. The main conclusion shows that the move from protection to FTA reduces world pollution emissions. A second result indicates that, in case of full trade liberalization, world pollution is further reduced.

At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US-MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.

In the past three decades, Mediterranean countries have been experiencing a far-reaching regional integration process with the European Union (EU). By contrast, ASEAN countries negotiated only very recently regional agreements with Northern countries, especially Japan and the United States. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the EU–Mediterranean partnership and discusses its implications for the ASEAN countries’ new regional policy. The model proposed here combines the new trade theory with recent developments related to trade costs. Several static and dynamic econometric specifications are estimated in order to calculate the gross trade creation due to the EU–Mediterranean agreements. The main result indicates that these agreements increased Mediterranean countries’ exports to the EU by 20–27% depending on the model's specification. This result suggests that the ASEAN emerging regional policy with Northern countries may also offer interesting trade prospects.

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the magnitude of scale economies and trade. Scale economies are directly estimated from a non linear translog production function system. These estimates are then introduced in an original supply–demand export model. The application of this model to four EU countries indicates that exports unambiguously rise with the degree of scale economies. These results support Schmitt and Yu's [Econ. Lett. 74 (2001) 127] theoretical expectations.

Over the past ten years, the EU commercial policy concerning EUMorocco trade has been confronted to new developments, notably the adaptation agreements, the free trade arrangements with Mediterranean countries, and the GATT Marrakech Agreement (1994). The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of these new developments on EU-Morocco trade. We will first analyze recent changes in Moroccan trade flows and specialization vis-à-vis the EU. The link with the new agreements will then be established, through the calculation of an index of export performance. We conclude that the EU preferential policy visà- vis Morocco had positive effects on Morocco's exports to the EU, but Eastern European countries agreements, as well as the implementation of the GATT 94, seem to have limited this impact, especially concerning clothing and agricultural products.

The USA has recently launched new trans-ocean free trade initiatives with Australia, the ASEAN, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), as well as Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries. This paper provides the first comparative estimation of trade and FDI potentials between the USA and these new partner countries. We first derive a dynamic two-equation trade and FDI model, which is afterwards estimated with GMM. Trade and FDI potentials are then calculated from these models' residuals with an out-of-sample technique. Results highlight significant US trade and FDI potential regarding Maghreb countries, Indonesia, as well as SACU. However, the free trade initiative with most ASEAN countries is expected to have limited effects, given that these countries have already outstripped their potential trade and FDI flows with the USA.

This paper proposes a sectoral theoretical model in an imperfect competition framework, with country-specific and industry-specific original variables, notably factor productivity, scale economies, or product differentiation. It is then empirically estimated in a panel data model, at a sectoral and geographical disaggregation level, to test the impact of exchange rate volatility on G-7 countries' exports. Economies of scale are estimated from a non-linear translog production system. Two exchange rate volatility measurements have been used: the moving sample standard deviation and the GARCH approach. The main finding shows that the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports varies considerably, depending on the industry covered and the export destination markets. As a consequence, there is both a sectoral and geographical aggregation bias when estimating the effects of exchange rate variations. JEL no. F1, F12, F14

In the early 1990s, two major crises affected the French fish market. Low import prices were suspected to have affected import levels offish. Therefore, this paper looks at the empirical economic factors of fish imports in France. Most economic papers related to this field use a demand function of imports for a single product and focus only on trade relations between two countries. In this research, a panel data trade model is used at the multilateral level with many trade partners and products over several years. Results are presented by product groups at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. French imports appear to be very sensitive to internal price competitiveness and nominal exchange rates, with a differentiated impact according to the degree of processing. From that model, simulations show the consequences of the implementation of a single European currency on seafood trade.

Uruguay round and LDCs : The case of north africa lionel fontagné, nicolas péridy The impact of GATT 94 derived in RUNS highlights a loss for North African Countries (NACs). The paper aims at re-assessing this impact on NACs' export performance, through the use of a gravity type model. It includes the actual NACs' export structure, with a high level of product disaggregation, and also takes non tariff barriers (NTBs) into account. The main conclusion is that NACs will experience a negative impact in their export performance consequently to GATT 94, except Morocco in the upper hypothesis. Most of the loss concerns manufactured products, since food products may benefit from the decrease in NTBs resulting from GATT 94., Les effets du GATT 94, évalués avec RUNS, ont mis en évidence des pertes pour l'Afrique du Nord. On cherche à réévaluer ici l'impact du GATT 94 sur la per­formance à l'exportation de cette zone, en développant un modèle tenant compte de ses spécificités : modèle de gravitation généralisé intégrant la structure réelle des exportations de ces pays à partir d'un niveau de désagrégation élevé, et pre­nant en compte l'impact des barrières non tarifaires (BNT). La banalisation des préférences dont bénéficiait le Maghreb sur le marché européen affectera négati­vement ses exportations, à l'exception des exportations marocaines dans l'hypo­thèse haute. Dans tous les cas de figure, la Tunisie sera plus touchée que le Maroc, cela en raison d'une marge préférentielle initiale plus importante, et d'une structure d'exportation dans laquelle les produits traditionnellement plus préférés sont davantage représentés. L'essentiel des pertes concerne les produits manu­facturés, les produits agricoles bénéficiant généralement de l'abaissement des BNT., Fontagné Lionel, Péridy Nicolas. Uruguay Round et PVD : le cas de l'Afrique du Nord. In: Revue économique, volume 46, n°3, 1995. pp. 703-715.

This paper provides new insights into the calculation of trade potential between the EU and its Southern and Eastern Mediterranean partners (MPs). It is based on an econometric specification which takes into account some new explanatory variables which are not included simultaneously in the previous studies. These include trade costs (tariffs, NTBs, and logistics costs), factor movement (migration and FDI), as well as governance. In addition, specific estimators are implemented in order to account for zero trade flows, endogeneity and dynamics. The main conclusion of this study is that contrary to some results found in previous studies, MPs have reached their export potential with the EU. It is also shown that there is no specificity of the MP-EU trade potential in comparison with the other main PTAs (NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and ASEAN) which have also reached their trade potential. These results have strong policy implications.

The paper aims at assessing the specific impact of shallow versus deep integration between Mediterranean (MED) countries1 and their partners in the European Union (EU) as well as between the MED countries themselves. It relies on dataset developed for this project concerning tariffs (as a proxy for shallow integration) and Non Tariff Measures (NTMs)2 (as a proxy for deep integration). Additional data are also included in order to take into account other trade costs, especially transport costs and logistics costs. In this regard, an original dataset of maritime freight cost (Maersk, 2007) is introduced as well as the trade logistics performance (TLP) index produced by the World Bank. Such datasets are useful for providing additional insight into deep integration.The paper starts by calculating the magnitude of NTMs in terms of ad valorem tariff equivalent (AVEs). The estimation of NTMs through ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) shows that Algeria and Jordan have the highest value of AVEs, whereas Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt have the lowest value. A gravity model is then estimated with special emphasis on trade costs which are the crucial point in our research study. Given the limitation of data on NTMs, the gravity model is estimated for only one year (2001), and for each MED country. Trade costs are represented by tariffs, AVEs of NTMs, and transport and logistics costs. The idea is to test which of the three elements of trade costs are the most impeding to bilateral trade between MED countries and EU countries as well as amongst MED countries. The model shows that tariffs, NTMs, and trade and logistics costs have a significant impact on trade, but is highly vivid in countries suffering from high tariff rates, prevalence of NTMs, and trade costs. A number of simulations are carried out trying to differentiate between the impact of partial liberalization and full liberalization on trade creation. The results obtained show that full liberalization has a significant effect whether it is only related to shallow integration (tariff removal) or deep integration (NTMs and trade and logistics). The effect is higher if trade costs and logistics are improved. The results are far less if only partial liberalization takes place and in several countries is insignificant implying that marginal reductions in NTMs or tariffs cannot always help to create trade. Finally the study shows that there is a huge potential for enhancing trade amongst MED countries.

This paper aims at explaining recent migration trends into the EU. A first contribution is to provide an original eclectic theoretical model from the new developments in migration theories. Second, an empirical panel data model is provided in order to explain the emigration rate into 18 EU countries, from 67 source countries, over the past 10 years. Finally, this model simultaneously tests the impact of the traditional and the new variables on migration flows into the EU. From both static and dynamic panel data estimators, the results show that the new variables are of particular significance, compared to traditional ones.

International Trade and Market Structure: An Empirical Assesment par Lionel Fontagné, Michael Freudenberg and Nicolas Péridy A prominent share of international trade is of an intra-industry nature (cross hauling of trade flows within industries), in contrast with the classical view of international trade. However, new developments allow for a synthesis between imperfect competition and the classical framework of comparative advantage. Using this synthesis, two sets of hypotheses are tested here, concerning the value and the nature of bilateral trade flows. Gravity type equations are estimated for EU12 countries over the period 1980-94. First, new thinking about specialisation, as an outcome of increasing returns, is validated. Second, even if comparative advantages are identified as a determinant of the specialisation along quality ladders within industries, they do no longer impulse a traditional inter-industry specialisation within our sample. Finally, product differentiation is validated as a determinant of intra-industry-trade, whereas the classical link between economies of scale and IIT is validated in the case of horizontally differentiated products only., Commerce international et structures de marché : une vérification empirique par Lionel Fontagné, Michel Freudenberg et Nicolas Péridy Une part importante des échanges internationaux a lieu sur un mode intra-branche (croisement des exportations et importations au sein des branches), en contradiction apparente avec la logique de spécialisation inter-branches selon les avantages comparatifs. Les développements récents de la théorie du commerce international, intégrant de nombreux apports de l'économie industrielle, débouchent toutefois sur une synthèse entre l'approche classique (l'avantage comparatif) et la concurrence imparfaite. On déduit deux ensembles de prédictions testables de cette synthèse, amendée pour prendre en compte la différenciation verticale des produits. L'un concerne les volumes d'échanges bilatéraux, l'autre la nature, inter- ou intra-branche des échanges. On estime des équations de type gravitaire entre pays de FUE12 sur la période 1980-1994. Les approches contemporaines de la spécialisation,_basées sur l'exploitation des rendements croissants, sont validées, mais non l'approche classique en termes d'avantage comparatif. Par contre, cette dernière conserve sa validité à un niveau plus fin, sur les échelles de qualité au sein des branches._Si la différenciation des produits renforce l'échange intra-branche, comme attendu, l'association traditionnelle des économies d'échelle à l'échange intra-branche n'est validée que dans le cas de la différenciation horizontale des produits., Fontagné Lionel, Frudenberg Michael, Péridy Nicolas. Commerce international et structures de marché : une vérification empirique. In: Économie & prévision, n°135, 1998-4. pp. 147-167.

This paper proposes an analysis of real income convergence in MENA countries for more than 800 disaggregated regional areas. A spatial analysis is implemented in order to take into account the spatial interactions of GDP per capita in these areas. Moreover, a b-convergence equation (absolute and conditional) is estimated with spatially correlated errors and spatial lag models. The conditional model also includes original climate variables (temperature and precipitations) at the same geographical level. Results show that the hypothesis of regional convergence is generally accepted in most MENA countries, with the exception of Egypt and Morocco . However, the convergence process is slow and climate change in MENA countries is likely to further slowdown this process.

In the past ten years, emerging countries have considerably increased their production of cars.Although their share in world exports is still below 10%, these countries are now ready to conquerinternational markets, since they can produce on a large scale at very low production costs com-pared with the Northern standards. Given the lack of literature on this topic, the main contributionofthispaperistoinvestigatetheexportpotentialofemergingcountriesintheautomotiveindustry.Based on new developments in the gravity equation, an original world trade model is applied tothe car industry. The export potentials are calculated from the residuals of the model with theout-sample technique. The main results show that several large emerging countries enjoy a verysignificant export potential. These are mainly China, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Iran, Thailand aswell as Indonesia. The growing influence of these countries has strong implications for the Triad.Indeed, Japan, Germany and small European countries have already surpassed their export poten-tial. In fact, only North American countries still exhibit a significant export potential, becausetheir export level is currently low in comparison to what it should be given their huge economicsize.KEYWORDS: emerging countries, car industry, gravity equation, export potential

Cet article propose une evaluation quantitative de la nouvelle politique de voisinage de l’ue, a partir du calcul des potentiels de commerce avec ses nouveaux voisins. La base theorique du modele utilise s’inspire des developpements recents des modeles de gravite, concernant notamment la specification des couts d’echange. Ce modele est ensuite estime en utilisant les estimateurs de Hausman et Taylor (statique) et d’Arellano, Bond et Bover (dynamique), afin de calculer les potentiels de commerce. Les principaux resultats indiquent que la plupart des nouveaux voisins beneficient d’un potentiel d’echange important avec l’ue. Cependant, ce potentiel est limite pour les pays qui ont deja liberalise leurs echanges avec l’ue, en particulier Israel, les pays candidats a l’adhesion (Bulgarie, Roumanie, Turquie) ainsi que les pays du Maghreb. Enfin, il apparait que le potentiel d’echange avec l’ue ne differe pas sensiblement selon que l’ue octroie ou non a ces pays l’acquis communautaire.

One major objective of the new EU neighborhood policy is to move towards more trade integration between the enlarged EU and its new Eastern and Southern neighbors, i.e., Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, as well as Southern Mediterranean and Caucasus countries. Using recent theoretical developments in gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation, which particularly focuses on trade costs. This equation is then used to investigate the new neighbors' export potential towards the EU market. For this purpose, several Hausman and Taylor's models are implemented in order to consider the correlation between certain independent variables and the residuals which are used to calculate trade potentials. Results outline that the NNCs' export potential is generally significant, especially for the new Eastern neighbors. However, it seems that this potential is limited for Mediterranean countries, as they have already enjoyed preferential market access with regards to the EU. Finally, an extension of the analysis to Middle-East and Gulf countries also highlights significant trade potentials with the EU.

The aim of this report is to analyze the Socially Responsible Investment in the USA from the shareholder's point of view. Based on the rule 14a-8, dissatisfied investors or activists may submit proposal to be implemented in order to improve social, societal and environmental performances of a firm; they may change the firm strategy through their proposals. The internship mission consisted of updating a database from 1997 to 2007. This database results from the merging of two databases; one with data from 1997 to 2004, and one containing new data from 2005 to 2007. Observations are made from this constructed database containing nature of 3,428 filed resolutions, targeted companies, resolution's outcomes and filers. Empirical analysis reveals that while religious and individual investors are becoming less present, resolutions submitted by mutual funds, public pension funds and advocacy groups come at the front of the stage. In the same way, propositions concerning abortion and contraception and tobacco and military involvement are getting less important whereas energy and environment, animal rights and political involvement questions are increasing. Assuming that Socially Responsible Investment is a growing phenomenon, this report contributes to knowledge about the nature of the resolutions and their vote, and the involvement of filers., L'objet de ce rapport est d'analyser l'Investissement Socialement Responsable aux Etats-Unis d'un point de vue actionnarial. Sur les fondements de la règle 14a-8, activistes et investisseurs non satisfaits soumettent des propositions aux dirigeants dans le but d'améliorer les performances sociales, sociétales et environnementales de l'entreprise. L'implication des actionnaires peut faire évoluer la stratégie de l'entreprise pour que cette dernière devienne plus responsable. L'objectif de ce stage était la mise à jour d'une base de données de 1997 à 2007, une base de données provenant de la fusion de deux bases différentes. La première contient les données des années 1997 à 2004 et la seconde, les informations de 2005 à 2007. L'analyse s'effectue donc à partir d'un fichier contenant la nature de 3 428 propositions d'actionnaires, leurs déposants, les entreprises ciblées ainsi que le résultat des votes. L'analyse empirique révèle une augmentation du nombre de propositions soumises par les fonds mutuels, les fonds de pension publics et les groupes de plaidoyer. A contrario, les investisseurs individuels et religieux apparaissent de moins en moins actifs. Concernant la nature des propositions, l'étude observe que les thèmes relatifs à l'énergie et l'environnement, les droits des animaux et l'implication politique des entreprises sont de plus en plus abordés. De manière opposée, les questions relatives à l'avortement et la contraception, l'implication militaire de l'entreprise mais aussi la prise de participation dans des sociétés de tabac, se font de moins en moins fréquentes. Ce rapport fait état du caractère grandissant de l'investissement responsable et de la prise en compte des enjeux sociaux et environnementaux par ses acteurs.

Thèse soutenue le 25 Novembre 2011 Diplôme : Dr. d'Université; In this thesis, we analyze the impact of trade liberalization of intermediate goods on firms in the downstream sector, with a particular focus on the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on French agrifood firms. The contribution of this thesis is both theoretical and empirical. The theoretical framework developed here uses key points of new international trade theories, namely the heterogeneity of firms and the selection of firms in different markets due to the presence of fixed costs. To account for the link between the liberalization of inputs and the structure of the downstream industry, we introduce an intermediate good sector in a model with heterogeneous firms. This theoretical framework is then used to analyze the impact of input trade liberalization on different aspects of the final sector, such as the export performance of firms, the way they serve foreign markets (through exports or direct investment abroad), and finally the entry in and exit from the domestic market. We compare our results with firm level data on French agrifood firms validate the propositions made in the theoretical model. We show that input trade liberalization reduces the probability of in the French agrifood sector, and results in the concentration of market shares in the hands of the most productive firms. We also show that input trade liberalization forces less productive firms to exit the domestic market. Finally, we show that the effects of input trade liberalization depend on the structure of fixed costs to access markets.