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We use a Poisson point process approach to prove distributional convergence to a stable law for non square-integrable observables $\phi: [0,1]\to R$, mostly of the form $\phi (x) = d(x,x_0)^{-\frac{1}{\alpha}}$,$0<\alpha\le 2$, on Gibbs-Markov maps. A key result is to verify a standard mixing condition, which ensures that large values of the observable dominate the time-series, in the range $1<\alpha \le 2$. Stable limit laws for observables on dynamical systems have been established in two settings: ``good observables'' (typically H\"older) on slowly mixing non-uniformly hyperbolic systems and ``bad'' observables (unbounded with fat tails) on fast mixing dynamical systems. As an application we investigate the interplay between these two effects in a class of intermittent-type maps.

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed) or Weibull (bounded) distribution. The motivation for this work was to give estimates of the probabilities of sustained periods of weather anomalies such as heat-waves, cold spells or prolonged periods of rainfall in climate models. Our predictions are borne out by numerical simulations and also analysis of rainfall and temperature data.

In this paper we consider random dynamical systems formed by concatenating maps acting on the unit interval $[0,1]$ in an iid fashion. Considered as a stationary Markov process, the random dynamical system possesses a unique stationary measure $\nu$. We consider a class of non square-integrable observables $\phi$, mostly of form $\phi(x)=d(x,x_0)^{-\frac{1}{\alpha}}$ where $x_0$ is non-periodic point satisfying some other genericity conditions, and more generally regularly varying observables with index $\alpha \in (0,2)$. The two types of maps we concatenate are a class of piecewise $C^2$ expanding maps, and a class of intermittent maps possessing an indifferent fixed point at the origin. Under conditions on the dynamics and $\alpha$ we establish Poisson limit laws, convergence of scaled Birkhoff sums to a stable limit law and functional stable limit laws, in both the annealed and quenched case. The scaling constants for the limit laws for almost every quenched realization are the same as those of the annealed case and determined by $\nu$. This is in contrast to the scalings in quenched central limit theorems where the centering constants depend in a critical way upon the realization and are not the same for almost every realization.

Particularly important to hurricane risk assessment for coastal regions is finding accurate approximations of return probabilities of maximum windspeeds. Since extremes in maximum windspeed have a direct relationship to minimums in the central pressure, accurate windspeed return estimates rely heavily on proper modeling of the central pressure minima. Using the HURDAT2 database, we show that the central pressure minima of hurricane events can be appropriately modeled by a nonstationary extreme value distribution. We also provide and validate a Poisson distribution with a nonstationary rate parameter to model returns of hurricane events. Using our nonstationary models and numerical simulation techniques from established literature, we perform a simulation study to model returns of maximum windspeeds of hurricane events along the North Atlantic Coast. We show that our revised model agrees with current data and results in an expectation of higher maximum windspeeds for all regions along the coast with the highest maximum windspeeds occurring in the northern part of the coast.

Erdos-Renyi limit laws give the length scale of a time-window over which time-averages in Birkhoff sums have a non-trivial almost-sure limit. We establish Erdos-Renyi type limit laws for Holder observables on dynamical systems modeled by Young Towers with exponential and polynomial tails. This extends earlier results on Erdos-Renyi limit laws to a broad class of dynamical systems with some degree of hyperbolicity.

We propose to create a secondary beam of neutral kaons in Hall D at Jefferson Lab to be used with the GlueX experimental setup for strange hadron spectroscopy. The superior CEBAF electron beam will enable a flux on the order of $1\times 10^4~K_L/sec$, which exceeds the flux of that previously attained at SLAC by three orders of magnitude. The use of a deuteron target will provide first measurements ever with neutral kaons on neutrons. The experiment will measure both differential cross sections and self-analyzed polarizations of the produced $\Lambda$, $\Sigma$, $\Xi$, and $\Omega$ hyperons using the GlueX detector at the Jefferson Lab Hall D. The measurements will span CM $\cos\theta$ from $-0.95$ to 0.95 in the range W = 1490 MeV to 2500 MeV. The new data will significantly constrain the partial wave analyses and reduce model-dependent uncertainties in the extraction of the properties and pole positions of the strange hyperon resonances, and establish the orbitally excited multiplets in the spectra of the $\Xi$ and $\Omega$ hyperons. Comparison with the corresponding multiplets in the spectra of the charm and bottom hyperons will provide insight into he accuracy of QCD-based calculations over a large range of masses. The proposed facility will have a defining impact in the strange meson sector through measurements of the final state $K\pi$ system up to 2 GeV invariant mass. This will allow the determination of pole positions and widths of all relevant $K^\ast(K\pi)$ $S$-,$P$-,$D$-,$F$-, and $G$-wave resonances, settle the question of the existence or nonexistence of scalar meson $\kappa/K_0^\ast(700)$ and improve the constrains on their pole parameters. Subsequently improving our knowledge of the low-lying scalar nonet in general., Comment: Final version of the KLF Proposal [C12-19-001] approved by JLab PAC48. The intermediate version of the proposal was posted in arXiv:1707.05284 [hep-ex]. 103 pages, 52 figures, 8 tables, 324 references. Several typos were fixed

Rare weather and climate events, such as heat waves and floods, can bring tremendous social costs. Climate data is often limited in duration and spatial coverage, and climate forecasting has often turned to simulations of climate models to make better predictions of rare weather events. However very long simulations of complex models, in order to obtain accurate probability estimates, may be prohibitively slow. It is an important scientific problem to develop probabilistic and dynamical techniques to estimate the probabilities of rare events accurately from limited data. In this paper we compare four modern methods of estimating the probability of rare events: the generalized extreme value (GEV) method from classical extreme value theory; two importance sampling techniques, genealogical particle analysis (GPA) and the Giardina-Kurchan-Lecomte-Tailleur (GKLT) algorithm; as well as brute force Monte Carlo (MC). With these techniques we estimate the probabilities of rare events in three dynamical models: the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, the Lorenz '96 system and PlaSim (a climate model). We keep the computational effort constant and see how well the rare event probability estimation of each technique compares to a gold standard afforded by a very long run control. Somewhat surprisingly we find that classical extreme value theory methods outperform GPA, GKLT and MC at estimating rare events., Comment: 32 pages, 16 figures

We obtain large deviations estimates for both sequential and random compositions of intermittent maps. We also address the question of whether or not centering is necessary for the quenched central limit theorems (CLT) obtained by Nicol, T\"or\"ok and Vaienti for random dynamical systems comprised of intermittent maps. Using recent work of Abdelkader and Aimino, Hella and Stenlund we extend the results of Nicol, T\"or\"ok and Vaienti on quenched central limit theorems (CLT) for centered observables over random compositions of intermittent maps: first by enlarging the parameter range over which the quenched CLT holds; and second by showing that the variance in the quenched CLT is almost surely constant (and the same as the variance of the annealed CLT) and that centering is needed to obtain this quenched CLT.

Consider an ergodic measure preserving dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$, and an observable $\phi:X\to\mathbb{R}$. For the time series $X_n(x)=\phi(T^{n}(x))$, we establish limit laws for the maximum process $M_n=\max_{k\leq n}X_k$ in the case where $\phi$ is an observable maximized on a curve or submanifold, and $(T,X,\mu)$ is a hyperbolic dynamical system. Such observables arise naturally in weather and climate applications. We consider the extreme value laws and extremal indices for these observables on Anosov diffeomorphisms, Sinai dispersing billiards and coupled expanding maps. In particular we obtain clustering and nontrivial extremal indices due to self intersection of submanifolds under iteration by the dynamics, not arising from any periodicity.

We consider exponential large deviations estimates for unbounded observables on uniformly expanding dynamical systems. We show that uniform expansion does not imply the existence of a rate function for unbounded observables no matter the tail behavior of the cumulative distribution function. We give examples of unbounded observables with exponential decay of autocorrelations, exponential decay under the transfer operator in each $L^p$, $1\le p < \infty$, and strictly stretched exponential large deviation. For observables of form $|\log d(x,p)|^{\alpha}$, $p$ periodic, on uniformly expanding systems we give the precise stretched exponential decay rate. We also show that a classical example in the literature of a bounded observable with exponential decay of autocorrelations yet with no rate function is degenerate as the observable is a coboundary.

In this paper, we show how the Gordin martingale approximation method fits into the anisotropic Banach space framework. In particular, for the time-one map of a finite horizon planar periodic Lorentz gas, we prove that Holder observables satisfy statistical limit laws such as the central limit theorem and associated invariance principles., Comment: Final version, to appear in Nonlinearity. Corrected some minor typos from previous version

In this paper the collective dynamics of $N$-coupled piecewise linear (PWL) systems with different number of scrolls and coupled in a master-slave sequence configuration is studied, i.e. a ring connection with unidirectional links. Itinerary synchronization is proposed to detect synchrony behavior with systems that can present generalized multistability. Itinerary synchronization consists in analyzing the symbolic dynamics of the systems by assigning different numbers to the regions where the scrolls are generated. It is shown that in certain parameter regimes if the inner connection between nodes is given by means of considering all the state variables of the system, then itinerary synchronization occurs and the coordinate motion is determined by the node with the smallest number of scrolls. Thus the collective behavior in all the nodes of the network is determined by the node with least scrolls in its attractor leading to generalized multistability phenomena which can be detected via itinerary synchronization. Results about attacks to the network are also presented, for example, when the PWL system is attacked by removing a given link to produce an open ring configuration. Depending on the inner connection properties, the nodes present multistability or preservation in the number of scrolls of the attractors.

It is difficult to estimate the midsagittal plane of human subjects with craniomaxillofacial (CMF) deformities. We have developed a LAndmark GEometric Routine (LAGER), which automatically estimates a midsagittal plane for such subjects. The LAGER algorithm was based on the assumption that the optimal midsagittal plane of a patient with a deformity is the premorbid midsagittal plane of the patient (i.e. hypothetically normal without deformity). The LAGER algorithm consists of three steps. The first step quantifies the asymmetry of the landmarks using a Euclidean distance matrix analysis and ranks the landmarks according to their degree of asymmetry. The second step uses a recursive algorithm to drop outlier landmarks. The third step inputs the remaining landmarks into an optimization algorithm to determine an optimal midsaggital plane. We validate LAGER on 20 synthetic models mimicking the skulls of real patients with CMF deformities. The results indicated that all the LAGER algorithm-generated midsagittal planes met clinical criteria. Thus it can be used clinically to determine the midsagittal plane for patients with CMF deformities.

We show that a compound Poisson distribution holds for scaled exceedances of observables $\phi$ uniquely maximized at a periodic point $\zeta$ in a variety of two-dimensional hyperbolic dynamical systems with singularities $(M,T,\mu)$, including the billiard maps of Sinai dispersing billiards in both the finite and infinite horizon case. The observable we consider is of form $\phi (z)=-\ln d(z,\zeta)$ where $d$ is a metric defined in terms of the stable and unstable foliation. The compound Poisson process we obtain is a P\'olya-Aeppli distibution of index $\theta$. We calculate $\theta$ in terms of the derivative of the map $T$. Furthermore if we define $M_n=\max\{\phi,\ldots,\phi\circ T^n\}$ and $u_n (\tau)$ by $\lim_{n\to \infty} n\mu (\phi >u_n (\tau) )=\tau$ the maximal process satisfies an extreme value law of form $\mu (M_n \le u_n)=e^{-\theta \tau}$. These results generalize to a broader class of functions maximized at $\zeta$, though the formulas regarding the parameters in the distribution need to be modified.

In this paper we present a new class of dynamical system without equilibria which possesses a multi scroll attractor. It is a piecewise-linear (PWL) system which is simple, stable, displays chaotic behavior and serves as a model for analogous non-linear systems. We test for chaos using the 0-1 Test for Chaos of Ref.12., Comment: Corresponding Author: Eric Campos-Cant\'on

We consider implications of dynamical Borel-Cantelli lemmas for rates of growth of Birkhoff sums of non-integrable observables $\varphi(x) = d(x,p)^{-k}$, $k>0$, on ergodic dynamical systems $(T,X,\mu)$ where $\mu(X) = 1$. Some general results are given as well as some more concrete examples involving non-uniformly expanding maps, intermittent type maps as well as uniformly hyperbolic systems., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures

This book provides a comprehensive introduction for the study of extreme events in the context of dynamical systems. The introduction provides a broad overview of the interdisciplinary research area of extreme events, underlining its relevance for mathematics, natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences. After exploring the basics of the classical theory of extreme events, the book presents a careful examination of how a dynamical system can serve as a generator of stochastic processes, and explores in detail the relationship between the hitting and return time statistics of a dynamical system and the possibility of constructing extreme value laws for given observables. Explicit derivation of extreme value laws are then provided for selected dynamical systems. The book then discusses how extreme events can be used as probes for inferring fundamental dynamical and geometrical properties of a dynamical system and for providing a novel point of view in problems of physical and geophysical relevance. A final summary of the main results is then presented along with a discussion of open research questions. Finally, an appendix with software in Matlab programming language allows the readers to develop further understanding of the presented concepts., Comment: 305 pages book, V. Lucarini, D. Faranda, A. C. M. Freitas, J. M. Freitas, T. Kuna, M. Holland, M. Nicol, M. Todd, S. Vaienti, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems, Wiley, New York, 2016, ISBN: 978-1-118-63219-2

We establish self-norming central limit theorems for non-stationary time series arising as observations on sequential maps possessing an indifferent fixed point. These transformations are obtained by perturbing the slope in the Pomeau-Manneville map. We also obtain quenched central limit theorems for random compositions of these maps.

We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism $T: \mathbb{T}^2 \to \mathbb{T}^2$ showing that if a H\"older observation $\phi$ which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point $\zeta$ is strictly maximized at $\zeta$ then the corresponding time series $\{\phi\circ T^i\}$ exhibits extreme value statistics corresponding to an iid sequence of random variables with the same distribution function as $\phi$ and with extremal index one. If however $\phi$ is strictly maximized at a periodic point $q$ then the corresponding time-series exhibits extreme value statistics corresponding to an iid sequence of random variables with the same distribution function as $\phi$ but with extremal index not equal to one. We give a formula for the extremal index (which depends upon the metric used and the period of $q$). These results imply that return times are Poisson to small balls centered at non-periodic points and compound Poisson for small balls centered at periodic points., Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures

We show that for planar dispersing billiards the return times distribution is, in the limit, Poisson for metric balls almost everywhere w.r.t. the SRB measure. Since the Poincar\'e return map is piecewise smooth but becomes singular at the boundaries of the partition elements, recent results on the limiting distribution of return times cannot be applied as they require the maps to have bounded second derivatives everywhere. We first prove the Poisson limiting distribution assuming exponentially decaying correlations. For the case when the correlations decay polynomially, we induce on a subset on which the induced map has exponentially decaying correlations. We then prove a general theorem according to which the limiting return times statistics of the original map and the induced map are the same.

In this note we show that the transfer operator of a Rauzy-Veech-Zorich renormalization map acting on a space of quasi-H\"older functions is quasicompact and derive certain statistical recurrence properties for this map and its associated Teichm\"uller flow. We establish Borel-Cantelli lemmas, Extreme Value statistics and return time statistics for the map and flow. Previous results have established quasicompactness in H\"older or analytic function spaces, for example the work of M. Pollicott and T. Morita. The quasi-H\"older function space is particularly useful for investigating return time statistics. In particular we establish the shrinking target property for nested balls in the setting of Teichm\"uller flow. Our point of view, approach and terminology derives from the work of M. Pollicott augmented by that of M. Viana.

In this paper, we investigate annealed and quenched limit theorems for random expanding dynamical systems. Making use of functional analytic techniques and more probabilistic arguments with martingales, we prove annealed versions of a central limit theorem, a large deviation principle, a local limit theorem, and an almost sure invariance principle. We also discuss the quenched central limit theorem, dynamical Borel-Cantelli lemmas, Erd\"os-R\'enyi laws and concentration inequalities., Comment: Appeared online in Probability Theory and Related Fields

Suppose $B_i:= B(p,r_i)$ are nested balls of radius $r_i$ about a point $p$ in a dynamical system $(T,X,\mu)$. The question of whether $T^i x\in B_i$ infinitely often (i. o.) for $\mu$ a.e.\ $x$ is often called the shrinking target problem. In many dynamical settings it has been shown that if $E_n:=\sum_{i=1}^n \mu (B_i)$ diverges then there is a quantitative rate of entry and $\lim_{n\to \infty} \frac{1}{E_n} \sum_{j=1}^{n} 1_{B_i} (T^i x) \to 1$ for $\mu$ a.e. $x\in X$. This is a self-norming type of strong law of large numbers. We establish self-norming central limit theorems (CLT) of the form $\lim_{n\to \infty} \frac{1}{a_n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} [1_{B_i} (T^i x)-\mu(B_i)] \to N(0,1)$ (in distribution) for a variety of hyperbolic and non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems, the normalization constants are $a^2_n \sim E [\sum_{i=1}^n 1_{B_i} (T^i x)-\mu(B_i)]^2$. Dynamical systems to which our results apply include smooth expanding maps of the interval, Rychlik type maps, Gibbs-Markov maps, rational maps and, in higher dimensions, piecewise expanding maps. For such central limit theorems the main difficulty is to prove that the non-stationary variance has a limit in probability.

We consider the regularity of measurable solutions $\chi$ to the cohomological equation \[ \phi = \chi \circ T -\chi, \] where $(T,X,\mu)$ is a dynamical system and $\phi \colon X\rightarrow \R$ is a $C^k$ valued cocycle in the setting in which $T \colon X\rightarrow X$ is a piecewise $C^k$ Gibbs--Markov map, an affine $\beta$-transformation of the unit interval or more generally a piecewise $C^{k}$ uniformly expanding map of an interval. We show that under mild assumptions, bounded solutions $\chi$ possess $C^k$ versions. In particular we show that if $(T,X,\mu)$ is a $\beta$-transformation then $\chi$ has a $C^k$ version, thus improving a result of Pollicott et al.~\cite{Pollicott-Yuri}.

We prove an almost sure invariance principle (approximation by d-dimensional Brownian motion) for vector-valued Holder observables of large classes of nonuniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems. These systems include Axiom~A diffeomorphisms and flows as well as systems modelled by Young towers with moderate tail decay rates. In particular, the position variable of the planar periodic Lorentz gas with finite horizon approximates a 2-dimensional Brownian motion.

We prove an almost sure invariance principle that is valid for general classes of nonuniformly expanding and nonuniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems. Discrete time systems and flows are covered by this result. In particular, the result applies to the planar periodic Lorentz flow with finite horizon. Statistical limit laws such as the central limit theorem, the law of the iterated logarithm, and their functional versions, are immediate consequences., Comment: 21 pages, To appear in Communications in Mathematical Physics

We prove measurable Livsic theorems for dynamical systems modelled by Markov Towers. Our regularity results apply to solutions of cohomological equations posed on Henon-like mappings and a wide variety of nonuniformly hyperbolic systems. We consider both Holder cocycles and cocycles with singularities of prescribed order., Comment: 35 pages, To be published in Ergodic Theory and Dynamical Systems

We study a scenario under which variable step random walks give anomalous statistics. We begin by analyzing the Martingale Central Limit Theorem to find a sufficient condition for the limit distribution to be non-Gaussian. We note that the theorem implies that the scaling index $\zeta$ is 1/2. For corresponding continuous time processes, it is shown that the probability density function $W(x;t)$ satisfies the Fokker-Planck equation. Possible forms for the diffusion coefficient are given, and related to $W(x,t)$. Finally, we show how a time-series can be used to distinguish between these variable diffusion processes and L\'evy dynamics., Comment: 13pages, 2 figures

Suppose $\{f_1,...,f_m\}$ is a set of Lipschitz maps of $\mathbb{R}^d$. We form the iterated function system (IFS) by independently choosing the maps so that the map $f_i$ is chosen with probability $p_i$ ($\sum_{i=1}^m p_i=1$). We assume that the IFS contracts on average. We give an upper bound for the Hausdorff dimension of the invariant measure induced on $\mathbb{R}^d$ and as a corollary show that the measure will be singular if the modulus of the entropy $\sum_i p_i \log p_i$ is less than $d$ times the modulus of the Lyapunov exponent of the system. Using a version of Shannon's Theorem for random walks on semigroups we improve this estimate and show that it is actually attainable for certain cases of affine mappings of $\mathbb{R}$., Comment: Final version; 14 pages in Latex