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This paper introduces Moonshine, a family of speech recognition models optimized for live transcription and voice command processing. Moonshine is based on an encoder-decoder transformer architecture and employs Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) instead of traditional absolute position embeddings. The model is trained on speech segments of various lengths, but without using zero-padding, leading to greater efficiency for the encoder during inference time. When benchmarked against OpenAI's Whisper tiny-en, Moonshine Tiny demonstrates a 5x reduction in compute requirements for transcribing a 10-second speech segment while incurring no increase in word error rates across standard evaluation datasets. These results highlight Moonshine's potential for real-time and resource-constrained applications., Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables

The rapid growth of virtual reality (VR) has led to increased use of social VR platforms for interaction. However, these platforms lack adequate features to support blind and low vision (BLV) users, posing significant challenges in navigation, visual interpretation, and social interaction. One promising approach to these challenges is employing human guides in VR. However, this approach faces limitations with a lack of availability of humans to serve as guides, or the inability to customize the guidance a user receives from the human guide. We introduce an AI-powered guide to address these limitations. The AI guide features six personas, each offering unique behaviors and appearances to meet diverse user needs, along with visual interpretation and navigation assistance. We aim to use this AI guide in the future to help us understand BLV users' preferences for guide forms and functionalities.

Numerical models of geothermal reservoirs typically depend on hundreds or thousands of unknown parameters, which must be estimated using sparse, noisy data. However, these models capture complex physical processes, which frequently results in long run-times and simulation failures, making the process of estimating the unknown parameters a challenging task. Conventional techniques for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), can require tens of thousands of simulations to provide accurate results and are therefore challenging to apply in this context. In this paper, we study the ensemble Kalman inversion (EKI) algorithm as an alternative technique for approximate parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for geothermal reservoir models. EKI possesses several characteristics that make it well-suited to a geothermal setting; it is derivative-free, parallelisable, robust to simulation failures, and requires far fewer simulations than conventional uncertainty quantification techniques such as MCMC. We illustrate the use of EKI in a reservoir modelling context using a combination of synthetic and real-world case studies. Through these case studies, we also demonstrate how EKI can be paired with flexible parametrisation techniques capable of accurately representing prior knowledge of the characteristics of a reservoir and adhering to geological constraints, and how the algorithm can be made robust to simulation failures. Our results demonstrate that EKI provides a reliable and efficient means of obtaining accurate parameter estimates for large-scale, two-phase geothermal reservoir models, with appropriate characterisation of uncertainty.

A search for proton decay into $e^+/\mu^+$ and a $\eta$ meson has been performed using data from a 0.373 Mton$\cdot$year exposure (6050.3 live days) of Super-Kamiokande. Compared to previous searches this work introduces an improved model of the intranuclear $\eta$ interaction cross section, resulting in a factor of two reduction in uncertainties from this source and $\sim$10\% increase in signal efficiency. No significant data excess was found above the expected number of atmospheric neutrino background events resulting in no indication of proton decay into either mode. Lower limits on the proton partial lifetime of $1.4\times\mathrm{10^{34}~years}$ for $p\rightarrow e^+\eta$ and $7.3\times\mathrm{10^{33}~years}$ for $p\rightarrow \mu^+\eta$ at the 90$\%$ C.L. were set. These limits are around 1.5 times longer than our previous study and are the most stringent to date.

This study reports a comprehensive environmental scan of the generative AI (GenAI) infrastructure in the national network for clinical and translational science across 36 institutions supported by the Clinical and Translational Science Award (CTSA) Program led by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) at the United States. With the rapid advancement of GenAI technologies, including large language models (LLMs), healthcare institutions face unprecedented opportunities and challenges. This research explores the current status of GenAI integration, focusing on stakeholder roles, governance structures, and ethical considerations by administering a survey among leaders of health institutions (i.e., representing academic medical centers and health systems) to assess the institutional readiness and approach towards GenAI adoption. Key findings indicate a diverse range of institutional strategies, with most organizations in the experimental phase of GenAI deployment. The study highlights significant variations in governance models, with a strong preference for centralized decision-making but notable gaps in workforce training and ethical oversight. Moreover, the results underscore the need for a more coordinated approach to GenAI governance, emphasizing collaboration among senior leaders, clinicians, information technology staff, and researchers. Our analysis also reveals concerns regarding GenAI bias, data security, and stakeholder trust, which must be addressed to ensure the ethical and effective implementation of GenAI technologies. This study offers valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities of GenAI integration in healthcare, providing a roadmap for institutions aiming to leverage GenAI for improved quality of care and operational efficiency.

We characterise the set of fundamental groups for which there exist $n$-manifolds that are $h$-cobordant (hence homotopy equivalent) but not simple homotopy equivalent, when $n$ is sufficiently large. In particular, for $n \ge 12$ even, we show that examples exist for any finitely presented group $G$ such that the involution on the Whitehead group $Wh(G)$ is nontrivial. This expands on previous work, where we constructed the first examples of even-dimensional manifolds that are homotopy equivalent but not simple homotopy equivalent. Our construction is based on doubles of thickenings, and a key ingredient of the proof is a formula for the Whitehead torsion of a homotopy equivalence between such manifolds., Comment: 25 pages. Following the suggestion of a referee, this paper has been extracted from arXiv:2312.00322

Low-light image enhancement remains a challenging task in computer vision, with existing state-of-the-art models often limited by hardware constraints and computational inefficiencies, particularly in handling high-resolution images. Recent foundation models, such as transformers and diffusion models, despite their efficacy in various domains, are limited in use on edge devices due to their computational complexity and slow inference times. We introduce ExpoMamba, a novel architecture that integrates components of the frequency state space within a modified U-Net, offering a blend of efficiency and effectiveness. This model is specifically optimized to address mixed exposure challenges, a common issue in low-light image enhancement, while ensuring computational efficiency. Our experiments demonstrate that ExpoMamba enhances low-light images up to 2-3x faster than traditional models with an inference time of 36.6 ms and achieves a PSNR improvement of approximately 15-20% over competing models, making it highly suitable for real-time image processing applications.

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and confocal microscopy are pivotal in retinal imaging, offering distinct advantages and limitations. In vivo OCT offers rapid, non-invasive imaging but can suffer from clarity issues and motion artifacts, while ex vivo confocal microscopy, providing high-resolution, cellular-detailed color images, is invasive and raises ethical concerns. To bridge the benefits of both modalities, we propose a novel framework based on unsupervised 3D CycleGAN for translating unpaired in vivo OCT to ex vivo confocal microscopy images. This marks the first attempt to exploit the inherent 3D information of OCT and translate it into the rich, detailed color domain of confocal microscopy. We also introduce a unique dataset, OCT2Confocal, comprising mouse OCT and confocal retinal images, facilitating the development of and establishing a benchmark for cross-modal image translation research. Our model has been evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively, achieving Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) scores of 0.766 and Kernel Inception Distance (KID) scores as low as 0.153, and leading subjective Mean Opinion Scores (MOS). Our model demonstrated superior image fidelity and quality with limited data over existing methods. Our approach effectively synthesizes color information from 3D confocal images, closely approximating target outcomes and suggesting enhanced potential for diagnostic and monitoring applications in ophthalmology., Comment: 30 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables

The ability to make accurate predictions with quantified uncertainty provides a crucial foundation for the successful management of a geothermal reservoir. Conventional approaches for making predictions using geothermal reservoir models involve estimating unknown model parameters using field data, then propagating the uncertainty in these estimates through to the predictive quantities of interest. However, the unknown parameters are not always of direct interest; instead, the predictions are of primary importance. Data space inversion (DSI) is an alternative methodology that allows for the efficient estimation of predictive quantities of interest, with quantified uncertainty, that avoids the need to estimate model parameters entirely. In this paper, we evaluate the applicability of DSI to geothermal reservoir modelling. We first review the processes of model calibration, prediction and uncertainty quantification from a Bayesian perspective, and introduce data space inversion as a simple, efficient technique for approximating the posterior predictive distribution. We then apply the DSI framework to two model problems in geothermal reservoir modelling. We evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of DSI relative to other common methods for uncertainty quantification, study how the number of reservoir model simulations affects the resulting approximation to the posterior predictive distribution, and demonstrate how the framework can be enhanced through the use of suitable reparametrisations. Our results support the idea that data space inversion is a simple, robust and efficient technique for making predictions with quantified uncertainty using geothermal reservoir models, providing a useful alternative to more conventional approaches.

In the realm of medical image fusion, integrating information from various modalities is crucial for improving diagnostics and treatment planning, especially in retinal health, where the important features exhibit differently in different imaging modalities. Existing deep learning-based approaches insufficiently focus on retinal image fusion, and thus fail to preserve enough anatomical structure and fine vessel details in retinal image fusion. To address this, we propose the Topology-Aware Graph Attention Network (TaGAT) for multi-modal retinal image fusion, leveraging a novel Topology-Aware Encoder (TAE) with Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to effectively enhance spatial features with retinal vasculature's graph topology across modalities. The TAE encodes the base and detail features, extracted via a Long-short Range (LSR) encoder from retinal images, into the graph extracted from the retinal vessel. Within the TAE, the GAT-based Graph Information Update (GIU) block dynamically refines and aggregates the node features to generate topology-aware graph features. The updated graph features with base and detail features are combined and decoded as a fused image. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods in Fluorescein Fundus Angiography (FFA) with Color Fundus (CF) and Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) with confocal microscopy retinal image fusion. The source code can be accessed via https://github.com/xintian-99/TaGAT., Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, accepted by MICCAI 2024

Despite recent strides made by AI in image processing, the issue of mixed exposure, pivotal in many real-world scenarios like surveillance and photography, remains inadequately addressed. Traditional image enhancement techniques and current transformer models are limited with primary focus on either overexposure or underexposure. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Unified-Exposure Guided Transformer (Unified-EGformer). Our proposed solution is built upon advanced transformer architectures, equipped with local pixel-level refinement and global refinement blocks for color correction and image-wide adjustments. We employ a guided attention mechanism to precisely identify exposure-compromised regions, ensuring its adaptability across various real-world conditions. U-EGformer, with a lightweight design featuring a memory footprint (peak memory) of only $\sim$1134 MB (0.1 Million parameters) and an inference time of 95 ms (9.61x faster than the average), is a viable choice for real-time applications such as surveillance and autonomous navigation. Additionally, our model is highly generalizable, requiring minimal fine-tuning to handle multiple tasks and datasets with a single architecture., Comment: Under submission

Competing interactions in low-dimensional materials can produce nearly degenerate electronic and structural phases. We investigate the staircase of structural phase transitions in layered IrTe$_2$ for which a number of potential transition mechanisms have been postulated. The spatial coexistence of multiple phases on the micron scale has prevented a detailed analysis of the electronic structure. By exploiting micro-ARPES obtained with synchrotron radiation we extract the electronic structure of the multiple structural phases in IrTe$_2$ in order to address the mechanism underlying the phase transitions. We find direct evidence of lowered energy states that appear in the low-temperature phases, states previously predicted by \textit{ab initio} calculations and extended here. Our results validate a proposed scenario of bonding and anti-bonding states as the driver of the phase transitions., Comment: None

Dysregulation of the tumour suppressor gene Adenomatous Polyposis Coli (APC) is a canonical step in colorectal cancer development. Curiously, most colorectal tumours carry biallelic mutations that result in only partial loss of APC function, suggesting that a "just-right" level of APC inactivation, and hence Wnt signalling, provides the optimal conditions for tumorigenesis. Mutational processes act variably across the APC gene, which could contribute to the bias against complete APC inactivation. Thus the selective consequences of partial APC loss are unclear. Here we propose a mathematical model to quantify the tumorigenic effect of biallelic APC genotypes, controlling for somatic mutational processes. Analysing sequence data from >2500 colorectal cancers, we find that APC genotypes resulting in partial protein function confer about 50 times higher probability of progressing to cancer compared to complete APC inactivation. The optimal inactivation level varies with anatomical location and additional mutations of Wnt pathway regulators. We use this context dependency to assess the regulatory effect of secondary Wnt drivers in combination with APC in vivo, and provide evidence that mutant AMER1 combines with APC genotypes that lead to relatively low Wnt. The fitness landscape of APC inactivation is consistent across microsatellite unstable and POLE-deficient colorectal cancers and tumours in patients with Familial Adenomatous Polyposis, suggesting a general "just-right" optimum, and pointing to Wnt hyperactivation as a potential cancer vulnerability., Comment: Main: 32 pages, 7 figures Supplements: 17 pages, 7 figures

This work focuses on the analysis of the mean longitudinal magnetic field as a stellar activity tracer in the context of small exoplanet detection and characterisation in radial-velocity (RV) surveys. We use SDO/HMI filtergrams to derive Sun-as-a-star magnetic field measurements, and show that the mean longitudinal magnetic field is an excellent rotational period detector and a useful tracer of the solar magnetic cycle. To put these results into context, we compare the mean longitudinal magnetic field to three common activity proxies derived from HARPS-N Sun-as-a-star data: the full-width at half-maximum, the bisector span and the S-index. The mean longitudinal magnetic field does not correlate with the RVs and therefore cannot be used as a one-to-one proxy. However, with high cadence and a long baseline, the mean longitudinal magnetic field outperforms all other considered proxies as a solar rotational period detector, and can be used to inform our understanding of the physical processes happening on the surface of the Sun. We also test the mean longitudinal magnetic field as a "stellar proxy" on a reduced solar dataset to simulate stellar-like observational sampling. With a Gaussian Process regression analysis, we confirm that the solar mean longitudinal magnetic field is the most effective of the considered indicators, and is the most efficient rotational period indicator over different levels of stellar activity. This work highlights the need for polarimetric time series observations of stars., Comment: 23 pages, 27 figures

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

We report the discovery and validation of HD 21520 b, a transiting planet found with TESS and orbiting a bright G dwarf (V=9.2, $T_{eff} = 5871 \pm 62$ K, $R_{\star} = 1.04\pm 0.02\, R_{\odot}$). HD 21520 b was originally alerted as a system (TOI-4320) consisting of two planet candidates with periods of 703.6 and 46.4 days. However, our analysis supports instead a single-planet system with an orbital period of $25.1292\pm0.0001$ days and radius of $2.70 \pm 0.09\, R_{\oplus}$. Three full transits in sectors 4, 30 and 31 match this period and have transit depths and durations in agreement with each other, as does a partial transit in sector 3. We also observe transits using CHEOPS and LCOGT. SOAR and Gemini high-resolution imaging do not indicate the presence of any nearby companions, and MINERVA-Australis and CORALIE radial velocities rule out an on-target spectroscopic binary. Additionally, we use ESPRESSO radial velocities to obtain a tentative mass measurement of $7.9^{+3.2}_{-3.0}\, M_{\oplus}$, with a 3-$\sigma$ upper limit of 17.7 $M_{\oplus}$. Due to the bright nature of its host and likely significant gas envelope of the planet, HD 21520 b is a promising candidate for further mass measurements and for atmospheric characterization., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS

We obtain a partial classification of the finite groups $G$ for which the integral group ring $\mathbb{Z} G$ has projective cancellation, i.e. for which $P \oplus \mathbb{Z} G \cong Q \oplus \mathbb{Z} G$ implies $P \cong Q$ for projective $\mathbb{Z} G$-modules $P$ and $Q$. To do this, we prove a cancellation theorem based on a relative version of the Eichler condition and use it to establish the cancellation property for a large class of finite groups. We then use a group theoretic argument to precisely determine the class of groups not covered by this result. The final classification is then obtained by applying results of Swan, Chen and Bley-Hofmann-Johnston which show failure of the cancellation property for certain groups., Comment: 39 pages

Transition path theory (TPT) offers a powerful formalism for extracting the rate and mechanism of rare dynamical transitions between metastable states. Most applications of TPT either focus on systems with modestly sized state spaces or use collective variables to try to tame the curse of dimensionality. Increasingly, expressive function approximators like neural networks and tensor networks have shown promise in computing the central object of TPT, the committor function, even in very high dimensional systems. That progress prompts our consideration of how one could use such a high dimensional function to extract mechanistic insight. Here, we present and illustrate a straightforward but powerful way to track how individual dynamical coordinates evolve during a reactive event. The strategy, which involves marginalizing the reactive ensemble, naturally captures the evolution of the dynamical coordinate's distribution, not just its mean reactive behavior.

A mathematical donut is a rectangle of integral side length with a smaller rectangle (called the hole of the donut), also of integral side length, strictly inside it and with sides of the rectangles parallel to each other, where the area of the larger rectangle is twice that of the smaller. Necessary and sufficient conditions are determined for when the hole of the donut can be rotated $90^{\circ}$ and a donut still exists, and a complete classification of all square or square-holed donuts is given, with the square donut classification being intimately related to Pythagorean triples., Comment: 9 pages

The Super-Kamiokande and T2K collaborations present a joint measurement of neutrino oscillation parameters from their atmospheric and beam neutrino data. It uses a common interaction model for events overlapping in neutrino energy and correlated detector systematic uncertainties between the two datasets, which are found to be compatible. Using 3244.4 days of atmospheric data and a beam exposure of $19.7(16.3) \times 10^{20}$ protons on target in (anti)neutrino mode, the analysis finds a 1.9$\sigma$ exclusion of CP-conservation (defined as $J_{CP}=0$) and a preference for the normal mass ordering., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures

We consider optimal experimental design (OED) for nonlinear inverse problems within the Bayesian framework. Optimizing the data acquisition process for large-scale nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems is a computationally challenging task since the posterior is typically intractable and commonly-encountered optimality criteria depend on the observed data. Since these challenges are not present in OED for linear Bayesian inverse problems, we propose an approach based on first linearizing the associated forward problem and then optimizing the experimental design. Replacing an accurate but costly model with some linear surrogate, while justified for certain problems, can lead to incorrect posteriors and sub-optimal designs if model discrepancy is ignored. To avoid this, we use the Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach to formulate an A-optimal design objective for sensor selection that is aware of the model error. In line with recent developments, we prove that this uncertainty-aware objective is independent of the exact choice of linearization. This key observation facilitates the formulation of an uncertainty-aware OED objective function using a completely trivial linear map, the zero map, as a surrogate to the forward dynamics. The base methodology is also extended to marginalized OED problems, accommodating uncertainties arising from both linear approximations and unknown auxiliary parameters. Our approach only requires parameter and data sample pairs, hence it is particularly well-suited for black box forward models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for finding optimal designs in an idealized subsurface flow inverse problem and for tsunami detection.

Kreck's modified surgery gives an approach to classifying smooth $2n$-manifolds up to stable diffeomorphism, i.e. up to connected sum with copies of $S^n \times S^n$. In dimension 4, we use a combination of modified and classical surgery to study various stable equivalence relations which we compare to stable diffeomorphism. Most importantly, we consider homotopy equivalence up to stabilisation with copies of $S^2 \times S^2$. As an application, we show that closed oriented homotopy equivalent 4-manifolds with abelian fundamental group are stably diffeomorphic. We give analogues of the cancellation theorems of Hambleton--Kreck for stable homeomorphism for homotopy up to stabilisations. Finally, we give a complete algebraic obstruction to the existence of closed smooth 4-manifolds which are homotopy equivalent but not simple homotopy equivalent up to connected sum with $S^2 \times S^2$., Comment: 25 pages

Life on Earth has experienced numerous upheavals over its approximately 4 billion year history. In previous work we have discussed how interruptions to stability lead, on average, to increases in habitability over time, a tendency we called Entropic Gaia. Here we continue this exploration, working with the Tangled Nature Model of co-evolution, to understand how the evolutionary history of life is shaped by periods of acute environmental stress. We find that while these periods of stress pose a risk of complete extinction, they also create opportunities for evolutionary exploration which would otherwise be impossible, leading to more populous and stable states among the survivors than in alternative histories without a stress period. We also study how the duration, repetition and number of refugia into which life escapes during the perturbation affects the final outcome. The model results are discussed in relation to both Earth history and the search for alien life., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures

Heterostructures from complex oxides allow one to combine various electronic and magnetic orders as to induce new quantum states. A prominent example is the coupling between superconducting and magnetic orders in multilayers from high-Tc cuprates and manganites. A key role is played here by the interfacial CuO2 layer whose distinct properties remain to be fully understood. Here, we study with resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) the magnon excitations of this interfacial CuO2 layer. In particular, we show that the underlying antiferromagnetic exchange interaction at the interface is strongly suppressed to J ~ 70 meV, as compared to J ~ 130 meV for the CuO2 layers away from the interface. Moreover, we observe an anomalous momentum dependence of the intensity of the interfacial magnon mode and show that it suggests that the antiferromagnetic order is accompanied by a particular kind of orbital order that yields a so-called altermagnetic state. Such a two-dimensional altermagnet has recently been predicted to enable new spintronic applications and superconducting proximity effects.

Implementing concurrent data structures is challenging and requires a deep understanding of concurrency concepts and careful design to ensure correctness, performance, and scalability. Further, composing operations on two or more concurrent data structures often requires a synchronization wrapper to ensure the operations are applied together atomically, resulting in serialization and, thereby, giving up the performance benefit of the individual data structures. DBMS provides generalized concurrency control (CC) and is a good fit for implementing concurrent data structures. However, DBMSs are over-generalized for this use case, which fails to match the performance of specialized implementations. This paper makes the case for the Declarative Concurrent Data Structures (DCDS) framework for automatically generating concurrent data structures from a serial specification. In DCDS, users declare the attributes and methods needed for their desired data structure through an embedded DSL at design time. DCDS automatically injects CC at build-time, generating a concurrent intermediate representation (IR) compiled into machine code. A declarative interface for designing data structure enables efficient composability through co-optimizing component structures; optimizations are applied to both the composed serial specification and the generated concurrent IR. We realize the DCDS framework in our prototype system Rosti and experimentally show that data structures declared in Rosti can be efficiently composed by co-optimizing their logical functionality and the generated CC protocol. Our evaluation shows that composing a map and a list to create an LRU container can benefit up to 2X performance scalability in Rosti compared to an open-source library. We demonstrate the applicability of DCDS as an in-process OLTP by comparing it with in-memory DBMS, Proteus, and showing up to 2X performance gains.

This is a discussion of miscellaneous summation, integration and transformation formulas obtained using Fourier analysis. The topics covered are: Series of the form $\sum_{n\in\mathbb{Z}} c_ne^{\pi i \gamma n^2}$; Fusion of integrals, and in particular fusion of $q$-beta integrals related to Gauss-Fourier transform, and a related family of eigenfunctions of the cosine Fourier transform; Summation formulas of the type $\sum_{n\ge 1}\frac{\chi(n)}{n}\,\varphi(n)$ with Dirichlet characters; Trigonometric Fourier series expansion of hypergeometric functions of the argument $\sin^2x$; Modifications of the inverse tangent integral and identities for corresponding infinite products., Comment: 16 pages

Preceding a core-collapse supernova, various processes produce an increasing amount of neutrinos of all flavors characterized by mounting energies from the interior of massive stars. Among them, the electron antineutrinos are potentially detectable by terrestrial neutrino experiments such as KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande via inverse beta decay interactions. Once these pre-supernova neutrinos are observed, an early warning of the upcoming core-collapse supernova can be provided. In light of this, KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande, both located in the Kamioka mine in Japan, have been monitoring pre-supernova neutrinos since 2015 and 2021, respectively. Recently, we performed a joint study between KamLAND and Super-Kamiokande on pre-supernova neutrino detection. A pre-supernova alert system combining the KamLAND detector and the Super-Kamiokande detector was developed and put into operation, which can provide a supernova alert to the astrophysics community. Fully leveraging the complementary properties of these two detectors, the combined alert is expected to resolve a pre-supernova neutrino signal from a 15 M$_{\odot}$ star within 510 pc of the Earth, at a significance level corresponding to a false alarm rate of no more than 1 per century. For a Betelgeuse-like model with optimistic parameters, it can provide early warnings up to 12 hours in advance., Comment: Resubmitted to ApJ. 22 pages, 16 figures, for more information about the combined pre-supernova alert system, see https://www.lowbg.org/presnalarm/

Neutrinos from very nearby supernovae, such as Betelgeuse, are expected to generate more than ten million events over 10\,s in Super-Kamokande (SK). At such large event rates, the buffers of the SK analog-to-digital conversion board (QBEE) will overflow, causing random loss of data that is critical for understanding the dynamics of the supernova explosion mechanism. In order to solve this problem, two new DAQ modules were developed to aid in the observation of very nearby supernovae. The first of these, the SN module, is designed to save only the number of hit PMTs during a supernova burst and the second, the Veto module, prescales the high rate neutrino events to prevent the QBEE from overflowing based on information from the SN module. In the event of a very nearby supernova, these modules allow SK to reconstruct the time evolution of the neutrino event rate from beginning to end using both QBEE and SN module data. This paper presents the development and testing of these modules together with an analysis of supernova-like data generated with a flashing laser diode. We demonstrate that the Veto module successfully prevents DAQ overflows for Betelgeuse-like supernovae as well as the long-term stability of the new modules. During normal running the Veto module is found to issue DAQ vetos a few times per month resulting in a total dead time less than 1\,ms, and does not influence ordinary operations. Additionally, using simulation data we find that supernovae closer than 800~pc will trigger Veto module resulting in a prescaling of the observed neutrino data., Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures. Submitted to PTEP

COVID-19 appeared abruptly in early 2020, requiring a rapid response amid a context of great uncertainty. Good quality data and knowledge was initially lacking, and many early models had to be developed with causal assumptions and estimations built in to supplement limited data, often with no reliable approach for identifying, validating and documenting these causal assumptions. Our team embarked on a knowledge engineering process to develop a causal knowledge base consisting of several causal BNs for diverse aspects of COVID-19. The unique challenges of the setting lead to experiments with the elicitation approach, and what emerged was a knowledge engineering method we call Causal Knowledge Engineering (CKE). The CKE provides a structured approach for building a causal knowledge base that can support the development of a variety of application-specific models. Here we describe the CKE method, and use our COVID-19 work as a case study to provide a detailed discussion and analysis of the method., Comment: 22 pages (plus 19 pages in appendices), 9 figures, submitted for review

We present the results of the charge ratio ($R$) and polarization ($P^{\mu}_{0}$) measurements using the decay electron events collected from 2008 September to 2022 June by the Super-Kamiokande detector. Because of its underground location and long operation, we performed high precision measurements by accumulating cosmic-ray muons. We measured the muon charge ratio to be $R=1.32 \pm 0.02$ $(\mathrm{stat.}{+}\mathrm{syst.})$ at $E_{\mu}\cos \theta_{\mathrm{Zenith}}=0.7^{+0.3}_{-0.2}$ $\mathrm{TeV}$, where $E_{\mu}$ is the muon energy and $\theta_{\mathrm{Zenith}}$ is the zenith angle of incoming cosmic-ray muons. This result is consistent with the Honda flux model while this suggests a tension with the $\pi K$ model of $1.9\sigma$. We also measured the muon polarization at the production location to be $P^{\mu}_{0}=0.52 \pm 0.02$ $(\mathrm{stat.}{+}\mathrm{syst.})$ at the muon momentum of $0.9^{+0.6}_{-0.1}$ $\mathrm{TeV}/c$ at the surface of the mountain; this also suggests a tension with the Honda flux model of $1.5\sigma$. This is the most precise measurement ever to experimentally determine the cosmic-ray muon polarization near $1~\mathrm{TeV}/c$. These measurement results are useful to improve the atmospheric neutrino simulations., Comment: 29 pages, 45 figures

The first loading of gadolinium (Gd) into Super-Kamiokande in 2020 was successful, and the neutron capture efficiency on Gd reached 50\%. To further increase the Gd neutron capture efficiency to 75\%, 26.1 tons of $\rm Gd_2(\rm SO_4)_3\cdot \rm 8H_2O$ was additionally loaded into Super-Kamiokande (SK) from May 31 to July 4, 2022. As the amount of loaded $\rm Gd_2(\rm SO_4)_3\cdot \rm 8H_2O$ was doubled compared to the first loading, the capacity of the powder dissolving system was doubled. We also developed new batches of gadolinium sulfate with even further reduced radioactive impurities. In addition, a more efficient screening method was devised and implemented to evaluate these new batches of $\rm Gd_2(\rm SO_4)_3\cdot \rm 8H_2O$. Following the second loading, the Gd concentration in SK was measured to be $333.5\pm2.5$ ppm via an Atomic Absorption Spectrometer (AAS). From the mean neutron capture time constant of neutrons from an Am/Be calibration source, the Gd concentration was independently measured to be 332.7 $\pm$ 6.8(sys.) $\pm$ 1.1(stat.) ppm, consistent with the AAS result. Furthermore, during the loading the Gd concentration was monitored continually using the capture time constant of each spallation neutron produced by cosmic-ray muons,and the final neutron capture efficiency was shown to become 1.5 times higher than that of the first loaded phase, as expected., Comment: 34 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Nuclear Inst. and Methods in Physics Research, A

Among multi-messenger observations of the next galactic core-collapse supernova, Super-Kamiokande (SK) plays a critical role in detecting the emitted supernova neutrinos, determining the direction to the supernova (SN), and notifying the astronomical community of these observations in advance of the optical signal. On 2022, SK has increased the gadolinium dissolved in its water target (SK-Gd) and has achieved a Gd concentration of 0.033%, resulting in enhanced neutron detection capability, which in turn enables more accurate determination of the supernova direction. Accordingly, SK-Gd's real-time supernova monitoring system (Abe te al. 2016b) has been upgraded. SK_SN Notice, a warning system that works together with this monitoring system, was released on December 13, 2021, and is available through GCN Notices (Barthelmy et al. 2000). When the monitoring system detects an SN-like burst of events, SK_SN Notice will automatically distribute an alarm with the reconstructed direction to the supernova candidate within a few minutes. In this paper, we present a systematic study of SK-Gd's response to a simulated galactic SN. Assuming a supernova situated at 10 kpc, neutrino fluxes from six supernova models are used to characterize SK-Gd's pointing accuracy using the same tools as the online monitoring system. The pointing accuracy is found to vary from 3-7$^\circ$ depending on the models. However, if the supernova is closer than 10 kpc, SK_SN Notice can issue an alarm with three-degree accuracy, which will benefit follow-up observations by optical telescopes with large fields of view., Comment: 38 pages, 29 figures, 6 tables