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Paleoclimatic records provide valuable information about Holocene climate, revealing aspects of climate variability for a multitude of sites around the world. However, such data also possess limitations. Proxy networks are spatially uneven, seasonally biased, uncertain in time, and present a variety of challenges when used in concert to illustrate the complex variations of past climate. Paleoclimatic data assimilation provides one approach to reconstructing past climate that can account for the diverse nature of proxy records while maintaining the physics-based covariance structures simulated by climate models. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation to create a spatially-complete reconstruction of temperature over the past 12,000 years using proxy data from the Temperature 12k database and output from transient climate model simulations. Following the last glacial period, the reconstruction shows Holocene temperatures warming to a peak near 6,400 years ago followed by a slow cooling toward the present day, supporting a preindustrial global mean surface temperature maximum during the mid-Holocene. Sensitivity tests show that if proxies have an overlooked summer bias, some apparent mid-Holocene warmth could actually represent summer trends rather than annual mean trends. Regardless, the potential effects of proxy seasonal biases are insufficient to align reconstructed global mean temperature with the warming trends seen in transient model simulations.

Despite extensive paleoenvironmental research on the postglacial history of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, uncertainties remain regarding the region's deglaciation, vegetation development, and past hydroclimate. To elucidate this complex environmental history, we present new proxy datasets from Hidden and Kelly lakes, located in the eastern Kenai lowlands at the foot of the Kenai Mountains, including sedimentological properties (magnetic susceptibility, organic matter, grain size, and biogenic silica), pollen and macrofossils, diatom assemblages, and diatom oxygen isotopes. We use a simple hydrologic and isotope mass balance model to constrain interpretations of the diatom oxygen isotope data. Results reveal that glacier ice retreated from Hidden Lake's headwaters by ca. 13.1 cal ka BP, and that groundwater was an important component of Kelly Lake's hydrologic budget in the Early Holocene. As the forest developed and the climate became wetter in the Middle to Late Holocene, Kelly Lake reached or exceeded its modern level. In the last ca. 75 years, rising temperature caused rapid changes in biogenic silica content and diatom oxygen isotope values. Our findings demonstrate the utility of mass balance modeling to constrain interpretations of paleolimnologic oxygen isotope data, and that groundwater can exert a strong influence on lake water isotopes, potentially confounding interpretations of regional climate.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) supply a substantial portion of warm-season rainfall to the Great Plains of North America, and they are responsible for severe weather and flooding across the central United States. However, little is known about past behaviour and long-term drivers of these systems, limiting our ability to predict future extreme weather patterns in this region. Here, we generate a 20,000-year-long multiproxy record of storm intensity and hydroclimate variability from central Texas in the southern Great Plains and use transient climate model simulations to diagnose the dynamics of reconstructed changes in the climate of this region. We find that southern Great Plains storm intensity responded dynamically to external forcings associated with glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing via changes in seasonal land surface warming. Springtime land surface warming steepens the zonal pressure gradient, producing an intensified southerly Great Plains low-level jet, enhancing southerly moisture transport and increasing springtime MCS intensity. Climate models predict a strengthening of the low-level jet in response to future warming, which our study suggests will lead to enhanced MCS activity and an increase in extreme weather across the Great Plains. Shifts in the seasonal timing of land surface warming set the severity of storm systems in the southern Great Plains since the last glacial, according to a hydroclimate proxy record from Texas and palaeoclimate modelling.

Annually laminated lake sediment can track paleoenvironmental change at high resolution where alternative archives are often not available. However, information about the chronology is often affected by indistinct and intermittent laminations. Traditional chronology building struggles with these kinds of laminations, typically failing to adequately estimate uncertainty or discarding the information recorded in the laminations entirely, despite their potential to improve chronologies. We present an approach that overcomes the challenge of indistinct or intermediate laminations and other obstacles by using a quantitative lamination quality index combined with a multi-core, multi-observer Bayesian lamination sedimentation model that quantifies realistic under- and over-counting uncertainties while integrating information from radiometric measurements (210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C) into the chronology. We demonstrate this approach on sediment of indistinct and intermittently laminated sequences from alpine Columbine Lake, Colorado. The integrated model indicates 3137 (95 % highest probability density range: 2753–3375) varve years with a cumulative posterior distribution of counting uncertainties of −13 % to +7 %, indicative of systematic observer under-counting. Our novel approach provides a realistic constraint on sedimentation rates and quantifies uncertainty in the varve chronology by quantifying over- and under-counting uncertainties related to observer bias as well as the quality and variability of the sediment appearance. The approach permits the construction of a chronology and sedimentation rates for sites with intermittent or indistinct laminations, which are likely more prevalent than sequences with distinct laminations, especially when considering non-lacustrine sequences, and thus expands the possibilities of reconstructing past environmental change with high resolution.

Chronological uncertainty is a hallmark of the paleoenvironmental sciences and geosciences. While many tools have been made available to researchers to quantify age uncertainties suitable for various settings and assumptions, disparate tools and output formats often discourage integrative approaches. In addition, associated tasks like propagating age-model uncertainties to subsequent analyses, and visualizing the results, have received comparatively little attention in the literature and available software. Here, we describe geoChronR, an open-source R package to facilitate these tasks. geoChronR is built around an emerging data standard (Linked PaleoData, or LiPD) and offers access to four popular age-modeling techniques (Bacon, BChron, OxCal, BAM). The output of these models is used to conduct ensemble data analysis, quantifying the impact of chronological uncertainties on common analyses like correlation, regression, principal component, and spectral analyses by repeating the analysis across a large collection of plausible age models. We present five real-world use cases to illustrate how geoChronR may be used to facilitate these tasks, visualize the results in intuitive ways, and store the results for further analysis, promoting transparency and reusability.

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).

Datasets from a 4-year monitoring effort at Lake Peters, a glacier-fed lake in Arctic Alaska, are described and presented with accompanying methods, biases, and corrections. Three meteorological stations documented air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall at different elevations in the Lake Peters watershed. Data from ablation stake stations on Chamberlin Glacier were used to quantify glacial melt, and measurements from two hydrological stations were used to reconstruct continuous discharge for the primary inflows to Lake Peters, Carnivore and Chamberlin creeks. The lake's thermal structure was monitored using a network of temperature sensors on moorings, the lake's water level was recorded using pressure sensors, and sedimentary inputs to the lake were documented by sediment traps. We demonstrate the utility of these datasets by examining a flood event in July 2015, though other uses include studying intra- and inter-annual trends in this weather–glacier–river–lake system, contextualizing interpretations of lake sediment cores, and providing background for modeling studies. All DOI-referenced datasets described in this paper are archived at the National Science Foundation Arctic Data Center at the following overview web page for the project: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/view/urn:uuid:df1eace5-4dd7-4517-a985-e4113c631044 (last access: 13 October 2019; Kaufman et al., 2019f).

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that Northern Hemisphere temperatures had reached levels unprecedented in at least 1400 years. The 2021 report now sees global mean temperatures rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This Technical Note briefly explains the reasons behind this major change. Namely, the new assessment reflects additional global warming that occurred between the two reports and improved paleotemperature reconstructions that extend further back in time. In addition to past and recent warming, the conclusion also considers multi-century future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century time scales.

Suspended sediment delivery and deposition in proglacial lakes is generally sensitive to a wide range of hydrometeorologic and geomorphic controls. High discharge conditions are of particular importance in many glaciolacustrine records, with individual floods potentially recorded as distinctive turbidites. We used an extensive network of surface sediment cores and hydroclimatic monitoring data to analyse recent flood turbidites and associated sediment transfer controls over instrumental periods at Eklutna Lake, western Chugach Mountains, Alaska. Close to a decade of fluvial data from primary catchment tributaries show a dominating influence of discharge on sediment delivery, with various interconnections with other related hydroclimatic controls. Multivariate fluvial models highlight and help quantify some complexities in sediment transfer, including intra-annual variations, meteorological controls, and the influence of subcatchment glacierization. Sediments deposited in Eklutna Lake during the last half century are discontinuously varved and contain multiple distinctive turbidites. Over a 30-year period of stratigraphic calibration, we correlate the four thickest flood turbidites (1989, 1995, 2006, and 2012) to specific regional storms. The studied turbidites correlate with late-summer and early-autumn rainstorms with a magnitude of relatively instantaneous sedimentation 3-15 times greater than annual background accumulation. Our network of sediment core data captured the broad extent and sediment variability among the study turbidites and background sediment yield. Within-lake spatial modelling of deposition quantifies variable rates of downlake thinning and sediment focusing effects, and highlights especially large differences between the thickest flood turbidites and background sedimentation. This we primarily relate to strongly contrasting dispersion processes controlled by inflow current strength and turbidity. Sediment delivery is of interest for this catchment because of reservoir and water supply operations. Furthermore, although smaller floods may not be consistently represented, the lake likely contains a valuable proxy record of regional flooding proximal to major population centers of south-central Alaska including Anchorage.

Annually laminated lake sediment can track paleoenvironmental change at high-resolution where alternative archives are often not available. However, information about both paleoenvironmental change and chronology are often affected by indistinct and intermittent varves. We present an approach that overcomes these and other obstacles by using a quantitative varve quality index combined with a multi-core, multi-observer Bayesian varve sedimentation model that quantifies realistic under- and over-counting uncertainties while integrating information from radiometric measurements (210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C) into the chronology. We demonstrate this approach on thin sections of indistinct and intermittently varved sequences from alpine Columbine Lake, Colorado. The integrated model indicates 3137 (95 percentile highest density probability range: 2753–3375) varve years with a cumulative posterior distribution of counting uncertainties of −13/+7 % indicative of systematic observer undercounting. The sedimentary features of the thin and complex varves shift through time, from normally graded couplets to couplets interrupted with coarser sub-laminae, to inversely graded couplets. We interpret the normal grading couplets as spring nival discharge followed by winter settling, the coarser sub-laminae as high rainfall events, and the inverse grading as hyperpycnal flows and/or pulses of dust related to human impact changing the varve formation mechanism. Our novel approach provides a realistic constraint on sedimentation rates and quantifies uncertainty in varve counts by quantifying over- and under-counting uncertainties related to observer bias and the quality and variability of the sediment appearance. The approach permits the construction of a varve chronology and sedimentation rates for sites with intermittent or indistinct varves, which are likely more prevalent than sequences with distinct varves, and thus, expands the possibilities of reconstructing past environmental change with high resolution.

Millions of people in the arid Southwest United States rely on snow-fed Colorado River water. Dust deposition on snow accelerates snowmelt, posing a challenge for water managers who also need to grapple with increased likelihood of drought due to climate change. Dust production is thought to increase during drought, but the impact of drought on dust deposition is unclear. To answer this question, total dust mass accumulation rate (DMAR) reconstructions were developed from sediment cores from three lakes in the San Juan Mountains, Colorado, spanning the last ~15,000 years. Monte-Carlo end-member analysis of particle size and elemental composition, which incorporates measurement and model uncertainties, was combined with age uncertainty to estimate DMAR for each lake. We also synthesize the records providing the first Holocene DMAR reconstruction for the region. The records show little relation between periods of frequent and severe drought (e.g. during medieval megadroughts) and periods of higher DMAR, although there is considerable uncertainty at short timescales. We find instead that sediment availability, modulated by natural or human-mediated geomorphic processes that generate sediment, and transport mechanisms are the key drivers. DMAR was highest during the Late Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT, 15–11 kyr BP) and in the last 250 years, periods when sediment availability was enhanced. DMAR increased by 60% (16–85% 75% highest density region range) compared with the late-Holocene baseline starting in the 1770s and peaking in the 1840s, associated with the intensification of human activities. Human-induced dustiness also represents the highest interval of dust deposition in the last 11,000 years. Our results demonstrate that although the Colorado Plateau is naturally prone to dustiness, drought is a secondary driver of dust accumulation in the mountains. This suggests that land-use management decisions aimed at reducing land disturbance can mitigate future dust accumulation, despite projected increases in regional aridity.

Sediments that accumulate in high-latitude lakes serve as valuable environmental archives of changing conditions in a region currently undergoing rapid change. A previously unexplored sedimentary sequence reaching back 16,000 years from Lakes Peters and Schrader (Neruokpuk Lakes) in the northeastern Brooks Range (69°N), Alaska, shows distinct changes in accumulation rates and biophysical properties including bulk density (BD), organic matter (OM) content, and grain-size distribution at five widely distributed core sites. The oldest sediments contain little OM and accumulated rapidly as glaciers retreated around 15 ka. OM peaked between 12 and 10 ka along with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. BD increased and OM decreased until around 5 ka, possibly reflecting a decrease in river-transported terrestrial OM. From 5–2 ka, OM consistently increased, suggesting a rise in river discharge, or a rise in summer temperatures, which led to higher productivity, or both. After 2 ka, sediments increased in BD and decreased in OM, suggesting glacier growth. Evidence for glacier expansion late during the Little Ice Age is weak, but increased sedimentation rates may reflect glacier retreat during the last century. This study provides a framework for future paleoenvironmental research of a rare archive in a relatively pristine Arctic setting.

The latitudinal temperature gradient between the Equator and the poles influences atmospheric stability, the strength of the jet stream and extratropical cyclones1–3. Recent global warming is weakening the annual surface gradient in the Northern Hemisphere by preferentially warming the high latitudes4; however, the implications of these changes for mid-latitude climate remain uncertain5,6. Here we show that a weaker latitudinal temperature gradient—that is, warming of the Arctic with respect to the Equator—during the early to middle part of the Holocene coincided with substantial decreases in mid-latitude net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, at 30° N to 50° N). We quantify the evolution of the gradient and of mid-latitude moisture both in a new compilation of Holocene palaeoclimate records spanning from 10° S to 90° N and in an ensemble of mid-Holocene climate model simulations. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that a weaker temperature gradient led to weaker mid-latitude westerly flow, weaker cyclones and decreased net terrestrial mid-latitude precipitation. Currently, the northern high latitudes are warming at rates nearly double the global average4, decreasing the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient to values comparable with those in the early to middle Holocene. If the patterns observed during the Holocene hold for current anthropogenically forced warming, the weaker latitudinal temperature gradient will lead to considerable reductions in mid-latitude water resources. A reduced gradient in temperatures between low and high latitudes during the Holocene led to drier mid-latitudes.

Developing robust chronological frameworks of lacustrine sediment is central to reconstructing past environmental changes. We present varve chronologies from five sites extending back 2300 years from Eklutna Lake, in the Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. The chronologies are built from image analysis of high-resolution photographs and CT scans of sediment cores. The age uncertainty of each record is tested by three methods. We first present varve chronologies from individual sites and reconcile the difference in varve delimitation from two observers. The varve chronologies from each site are then compared to each other using a series of marker beds that can be traced across the lake basin. Finally, using a new Bayesian probabilistic model, we develop age models that incorporate information regarding age uncertainty from the multiple-observer method and the age distribution of marker layers from multiple cores. To evaluate the accuracy of the Bayesian model output, we used seven radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils and four tephra layers traceable across the core sites. The major-element geochemistry of the tephra layers and their ages are presented here for the first time. The Bayesian age model offers a new approach to quantifying age uncertainty in inter-correlated cores of varved sediment.

This research has been supported by the Directorate for Geosciences of the National Science Foundation (grant nos. AGS-1602105 and AGS-1903548)., We thank the USGS John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, which hosted a meeting that led to this synthesis effort. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government. We thank the original data generators who made their data available for reuse, and we acknowledge the data repositories for safeguarding these assets., Holocene climate reconstructions are useful for understanding the diverse features and spatial heterogeneity of past and future climate change. Here we present a database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records. The database gathers paleoclimate time series from 184 terrestrial and marine sites, including 381 individual proxy records. The records span at least 4000 of the last 12 000 years (median duration of 10 725 years) and have been screened for resolution, chronologic control, and climate sensitivity. Records were included that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features. The database is shared in the machine readable Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format and includes geochronologic data for generating site-level time-uncertain ensembles. This publicly accessible and curated collection of proxy paleoclimate records will have wide research applications, including, for example, investigations of the primary features of oceanatmospheric circulation along the eastern margin of the North Pacific and the latitudinal response of climate to orbital changes. The database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12863843.v1 (Routson and McKay, 2020)., National Science Foundation (NSF) AGS-1602105 AGS-1903548

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format. Fil: Kaufman, Darrell. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: McKay, Nicholas. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Routson, Cody. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Erb, Michael. Northern Arizona University.; Estados Unidos Fil: Davis, Basil. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Heiri, Oliver. University Of Basel; Suiza Fil: Jaccard, Samuel. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Tierney, Jessica. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Dätwyler, Christoph. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Axford, Yarrow. Northwestern University; Estados Unidos Fil: Brussel, Thomas. University of Utah; Estados Unidos Fil: Cartapanis, Olivier. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Chase, Brian. Universite de Montpellier; Francia Fil: Dawson, Andria. Mount Royal University; Canadá Fil: de Vernal, Anne. Université du Québec a Montreal; Canadá Fil: Engels, Stefan. University of London; Reino Unido Fil: Jonkers, Lukas. University Of Bremen; Alemania Fil: Marsicek, Jeremiah. University of Wisconsin-Madison; Estados Unidos Fil: Moffa Sánchez, Paola. University of Durham; Reino Unido Fil: Morrill, Carrie. University of Colorado; Estados Unidos Fil: Orsi, Anais. Université Paris-Saclay; Francia Fil: Rehfeld, Kira. Heidelberg University; Alemania Fil: Saunders, Krystyna. Australian Nuclear Science And Technology Organisation; Australia Fil: Sommer, Philipp. University Of Lausanne; Suiza Fil: Thomas, Elizabeth. University At Buffalo; Estados Unidos Fil: Tonello, Marcela Sandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina Fil: Tóth, Mónika. Balaton Limnological Institute; Hungría Fil: Vachula, Richard. Brown University; Estados Unidos Fil: Andreev, Andrei. Alfred Wegener Institut Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research; Alemania Fil: Bertrand, Sebastien. Ghent University; Bélgica Fil: Massaferro, Julieta. Administración de Parques Nacionales. Parque Nacional "Nahuel Huapi"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina

Chronological uncertainty is a hallmark of the paleosciences. While many tools have been made available to researchers to quantify age uncertainties suitable for various settings and assumptions, disparate tools and output formats often discourage integrative approaches. In addition, associated tasks like propagating age model uncertainties to subsequent analyses, and visualizing the results, have received comparatively little attention in the literature and available software. Here we describe GeoChronR, an open-source R package to facilitate these tasks. GeoChronR is built around emerging data standards for the paleosciences (Linked PaleoData, or LiPD), and offers access to four popular age modeling techniques (Bacon, BChron, Oxcal, BAM). The output of these models is used to support ensemble-aware analyses, quantifying the impact of chronological uncertainties on common analyses like age-uncertain correlation, regression, principal component, and spectral analyses. We present five real-world use cases to illustrate how GeoChronR may be used to facilitate these tasks, to visualize the results in intuitive ways, and to store the results for further analysis, promoting transparency and reusability.

Holocene climate reconstructions are useful for understanding the diverse features and spatial heterogeneity of past and future climate change. Here we present a database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records. The database gathers paleoclimate time series from 209 terrestrial and marine sites, including 382 individual proxy records. The records span at least 4000 of the last 12 000 years (median duration = 10 603 years), and have been screened for resolution, chronologic control, and climate sensitivity. Records were included that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features. The database is shared in the machine readable Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format and includes geochronologic data for generating site-level time-uncertain ensembles. This publicly accessible and curated collection of proxy paleoclimate records will have wide research applications, including, for example, investigations of the primary features of ocean-atmospheric circulation along the eastern margin of the North Pacific and the latitudinal response of climate to orbital changes. The database is available for download at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12863843.v1 (Routson and McKay, 2020).

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format., Measurement(s)climateTechnology Type(s)digital curationFactor Type(s)temporal interval • geographic location • proxy typeSample Characteristic - Environmentclimate systemSample Characteristic - LocationEarth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/27330

An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.

Irreversible shifts of large-scale components of the Earth system (so-called ‘tipping elements’) on policy-relevant timescales are a major source of uncertainty for projecting the impacts of future climate change. The high latitudes are particularly vulnerable to positive feedbacks that amplify change through atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions. Unfortunately, the short instrumental record does not capture the full range of past or projected climate scenarios (a situation particularly acute in the high latitudes). Natural archives from past periods warmer than present day, however, can be used to explore drivers and responses to forcing, and provide data against which to test models, thereby offering insights into the future. The Last Interglacial (129–116,000 years before present) — the warmest interglacial of the last 800,000 years — was the most recent period during which global temperatures were comparable with low-end 21st Century projections (up to 2 °C warmer, with temperature increase amplified over polar latitudes), providing a potentially useful analogue for future change. Substantial environmental changes happened during this time. Here we synthesise the nature and timing of potential high-latitude tipping elements during the Last Interglacial, including sea ice, extent of the boreal forest, permafrost, ocean circulation, and ice sheets/sea level. We also review the thresholds and feedbacks that likely operated through this period. Notably, substantial ice mass loss from Greenland, the West Antarctic, and possibly sectors of the East Antarctic drove a 6–9 m rise in global sea level. This was accompanied by reduced summer sea-ice extent, poleward-extended boreal forest, and reduced areas of permafrost. Despite current chronological uncertainties, we find that tipping elements in the high latitudes all experienced rapid and abrupt change (within 1–2 millennia of each other) across both hemispheres, while recovery to prior conditions took place over multi-millennia. Our synthesis demonstrates important feedback loops between tipping elements, amplifying polar and global change during the Last Interglacial. The high sensitivity and tight interconnections between polar tipping elements suggests that they could exhibit similar thresholds of vulnerability in the future, particularly if the aspirations of the Paris Agreement are not met.

Significance Fifty years ago, it was speculated that the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to warming and may have melted in the past. Testing this hypothesis has proved challenging due to the difficulty of developing in situ records of ice sheet and environmental change spanning warm periods. We present a multiproxy record that implies loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial (129,000 to 116,000 y ago), associated with ocean warming and the release of greenhouse gas methane from marine sediments. Our ice sheet modeling predicts that Antarctica may have contributed several meters to global sea level at this time, suggesting that this ice sheet lies close to a “tipping point” under projected warming., The future response of the Antarctic ice sheet to rising temperatures remains highly uncertain. A useful period for assessing the sensitivity of Antarctica to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG) (129 to 116 ky), which experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher global mean sea level (GMSL) (+6 to 9 m) relative to present day. LIG sea level cannot be fully explained by Greenland Ice Sheet melt (∼2 m), ocean thermal expansion, and melting mountain glaciers (∼1 m), suggesting substantial Antarctic mass loss was initiated by warming of Southern Ocean waters, resulting from a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in response to North Atlantic surface freshening. Here, we report a blue-ice record of ice sheet and environmental change from the Weddell Sea Embayment at the periphery of the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), which is underlain by major methane hydrate reserves. Constrained by a widespread volcanic horizon and supported by ancient microbial DNA analyses, we provide evidence for substantial mass loss across the Weddell Sea Embayment during the LIG, most likely driven by ocean warming and associated with destabilization of subglacial hydrates. Ice sheet modeling supports this interpretation and suggests that millennial-scale warming of the Southern Ocean could have triggered a multimeter rise in global sea levels. Our data indicate that Antarctica is highly vulnerable to projected increases in ocean temperatures and may drive ice–climate feedbacks that further amplify warming.

A valuable analogue for assessing Earth’s sensitivity to warming is the Last Interglacial (LIG; 129–116 kyr), when global temperatures (0−+2 °C) and mean sea level (+6–11 m) were higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report here a global network of LIG sea surface temperatures (SST) obtained from various published temperature proxies (e.g. faunal/floral assemblages, Mg/Ca ratios of calcareous plankton, alkenone UK’37). Each reconstruction is averaged across the LIG (anomalies relative to 1981–2010), corrected for ocean drift and with varying seasonality (189 annual, 99 December-February, and 92 June–August records). We summarise the current limitations of SST reconstructions for the LIG and the spatial temperature features of a naturally warmer world. Because of local δ18O seawater changes, uncertainty in the age models of marine cores, and differences in sampling resolution and/or sedimentation rates, the reconstructions are restricted to mean conditions. To avoid bias towards individual LIG SSTs based on only a single (and potentially erroneous) measurement or a single interpolated data point, here we average across the entire LIG. To investigate the sensitivity of the reconstruction to high temperatures, we also report maximum values during the first 5 ka of the LIG (129–124 kyr). The global dataset provides a remarkably coherent pattern of higher SST increases at polar latitudes than in the tropics, with comparable estimates between different SST proxies. We report mean global annual SST anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1 °C and a maximum of 0.9 ± 0.2 °C respectively. Using the reconstructed SSTs suggests a mean thermosteric sea level rise of 0.01 ± 0.1 m and a maximum of 0.13 ± 0.1 m respectively. The data provide an important natural baseline for a warmer world, constraining the contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea level during a geographically widespread expression of high sea level, and can be used to test the next inter-comparison of models for projecting future climate change. The dataset described in this paper, including summary temperature and thermosteric sea-level reconstructions, are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.904381 (Turney et al., 2019).

Palaeoclimate data hold the unique promise of providing a long-term perspective on climate change and as such can serve as an important benchmark for climate models. However, palaeoclimate data have generally been archived with insufficient standardisation and metadata to allow for transparent and consistent uncertainty assessment in an automated way. Thanks to improved computation capacity, transient palaeoclimate simulations are now possible, calling for data products containing multi-parameter time series rather than information on a single parameter for a single time slice. Efforts are underway to simulate a complete glacial–interglacial cycle using general circulation models (https://www.palmod.de/, last access: 6 May 2020), and to confront these simulations with palaeoclimate data, we have compiled a multi-parameter marine palaeoclimate data synthesis that contains time series spanning 0 to 130 000 years ago. We present the first version of the data product that focuses exclusively on time series for which a robust chronology based on benthic foraminifera δ18O and radiocarbon dating is available. The product contains 896 time series of eight palaeoclimate parameters from 143 individual sites, each associated with rich metadata, age–depth model ensembles, and information to refine and update the chronologies. This version contains 205 time series of benthic foraminifera δ18O; 169 of benthic foraminifera δ13C; 131 of seawater temperature; 174 and 119 of planktonic foraminifera δ18O and δ13C; and 44, 38 and 16 of carbonate, organic carbon and biogenic silica content, respectively. The data product is available in three formats (R, LiPD and netCDF) facilitating use across different software and operating systems and can be downloaded at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.908831 (Jonkers et al., 2019). This data descriptor presents our data synthesis strategy and describes the contents and format of the data product in detail. It ends with a set of recommendations for data archiving.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Arctic precipitation is predicted to increase in the coming century, due to a combination of enhanced northward atmospheric moisture transport and local surface evaporation from ice-free seas. However, large model uncertainties, limited long-term observations, and high spatiotemporal variability limit our understanding of these mechanisms, emphasizing the need for paleoclimate records of precipitation changes. Here we use lipid biomarkers in lake sediments to reconstruct precipitation seasonality in northern Spitsbergen, Svalbard. We measured the hydrogen isotopic ratios (δ2H) of n-alkanoic acids (C20–C30) from sedimentary leaf waxes in lake Austre Nevlingen, Spitsbergen. We interpret δ2H values of mid-chain (C22) and long-chain (C28) n-alkanoic acids to represent δ2H of lake and soil water, respectively. Austre Nevlingen lake water δ2H reflects amount-weighted mean annual precipitation δ2H. In contrast, soil water is mostly recharged by summer rainfall, and therefore reflects δ2H values of summer precipitation. Austre Nevlingen leaf wax δ2H values are 2H-depleted in the Early Holocene, suggesting high winter precipitation amounts. This coincides with high summer insolation, strong Atlantic water advection and reduced spring sea-ice cover in surrounding waters. Winter precipitation continued to dominate until c. 6 cal. kyr BP. After 6 cal. kyr BP, the trend in the biomarker record is not as clear. This could be related to colder conditions causing longer duration of seasonal lake-ice cover, thereby influencing the precipitation seasonality registered by the lake water. The Austre Nevlingen record suggests a close relationship between precipitation seasonality and regional ocean surface conditions, consistent with simulations suggesting that Arctic winter sea-ice loss will lead to increased local evaporation., Fieldwork, radiocarbon dates, and laboratory analyses were funded by the Carlsberg Foundation (grant number CF14-0756 to AS), the Nansen Foundation (to AS), and the Svalbard Environmental Protection Fund (grant number 17/101 to AS and 17/114 to LA). The 2015 fieldwork was partly funded by the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) Research Fund (grant to ÓI). Laboratory analyses and technician support were also funded by National Science Foundation Grant (grant number 1652274 to EKT) and a UB Center for Undergraduate Research and Creative Activities Grant (to SD). We thank Sveinn Brynjólfsson and Sara Mollie Cohen for field assistance, Mike Retelle for providing field equipment, Marie-Louise Siggaard-Andersen for assistance with the ITRAX-scanning, and Alexandra Rouillard for macrofossil identification and data discussion. Finally, we thank Willem van der Bilt and one anonymous reviewer for constructive comments that improved this manuscript.

Tephra deposits correlated between nearby lakes provide the opportunity to improve age estimates of the sediment sequences, even if the ages of the tephras are previously unknown. We explore this potential using cryptotephras and visible tephra deposits in sediment cores from Upper and Lower Whitshed Lakes near Cordova, Alaska. Each tephra was described in terms of visual stratigraphy and shard morphology, and the major-oxide glass geochemistry was analyzed. Independent age models were developed for the cores using radiocarbon ages and profiles of short-lived radioisotopes for the near-surface sediments. Four tephras were correlated between the two lakes based on the magnitude and spacing of magnetic susceptibility peaks and glass major-oxide geochemistry. These correlations confirm agreement of the age models because the independently modeled confidence intervals overlap for each correlated tephra. The stratigraphic correlations were subsequently used to improve the age models by extracting the subset of possible age-model iterations that produce similar ages for each of the four correlated tephras at the two lakes. The iterations that agree within 25 years for each correlated tephra were used to create tephra-matched age models for both lakes, which narrowed the width of the 95% confidence intervals of the age models by 3% overall and reduced the uncertainty in age estimates of the correlated tephras by 34% on average. This synchronization technique may be useful in other studies that have multiple independently dated records with confident stratigraphic correlations.

Holocene glacier fluctuations in south-central Alaska reflect hydroclimate changes in a region strongly influenced by large-scale features of North Pacific climate. Glacier fluctuations over the past approximately 2300 years were inferred from multiple geophysical and geochemical properties of a new 13-m-long sediment core from proglacial Skilak Lake. The chronology is based on annual-layer (varve) counting, supported by radiocarbon ages and the identification of the 1912 CE Katmai tephra. Sediment density and accumulation rate show two prominent century-scale increases, one near the base of the cored sequence (around 270-370 BCE) and one near the top (around 1600–1900 CE, Little Ice Age). These two peaks, and the absence of such increases between them, coincide with sedimentation-rate changes as previously measured in multiple cores from Eklutna Lake, located 130 km northeast of Skilak Lake. The similarity between the two sedimentary sequences, despite their contrasting geomorphic settings and spatial scales, implies that regional climate change is the overriding control. Sediment with high bulk density and thick varves was deposited concurrently with the expansion of glaciers in the catchment and elsewhere in the region during the Little Ice Age. We likewise attribute the deposits with similar characteristics to expanded glaciers centered around 320 BCE, and the absence of such sediment during the intervening 1800 years to the lack of a major glacier advance. Climatologically, both periods of high sediment accumulation rate correspond with times of intensified Aleutian Low pressure, as recently reconstructed based on regional syntheses of oxygen-isotope records for the earlier period, and on sea-salt concentration in two Alaskan ice cores for the later period. Both periods also coincide with pronounced multi-decadal downturns in combined solar and volcanic global radiative forcing. The massive buildup of glaciers during the Little Ice Age might reflect the increased frequency of these downturns combined with millennial-scale decrease in orbitally driven insolation. Glaciolacustrine records from these two lakes add a new perspective on the multi-century variability of glaciers and hydroclimate in the North Pacific region.

Sediment yield can be a sensitive indicator of catchment dynamics and environmental change. For a glacierized catchment in the High Arctic, we compiled and analyzed diverse sediment transfer data, spanning a wide range of temporal scales, to quantify catchment yields and explore landscape response to past and ongoing hydroclimatic variability. The dataset integrates rates of lake sedimentation from correlated varve records and repeated annual and seasonal sediment traps, augmented by multi-year lake and fluvial monitoring. Consistent spatial patterns of deposition enabled reconstruction of catchment yields from varve- and trap-based fluxes. We used hydroclimatic data and multivariate modeling to examine annual controls of sediment delivery over almost a century, and to examine shorter-term controls of sediment transfer during peak glacier melt. Particle-size analyses, especially for annual sediment traps, were used to further infer sediment transfer mechanisms and timing. Through the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, there were no apparent multi-century trends in lake sedimentation rates, which were over three times greater than those during the mid-Holocene when glaciers were diminished. Twentieth-century sedimentation rates were greater than those of previous millennia, with a mid-century step increase in mean yield from 240 to 425 Mg km-2 yr-1. Annual yields through the twentieth century showed significant positive relations with spring/summer temperature, rainfall, and peak discharge conditions. This finding is significant for the future of sediment transfer at Linnevatnet, and perhaps more broadly in the Arctic, where continued increases in temperature and rainfall are projected. For 2004-2010, annual yields ranged from 294 to 1330 Mg km-2 yr-1. Sediment trap volumes and particle-size variations indicate that recent annual yields were largely dominated by spring to early summer transfer of relatively coarse-grained sediment. Fluvial monitoring showed daily to hourly sediment transfer to be related to current and prior discharge, diurnal hysteresis, air temperature, and precipitation.

Datasets from a four-year monitoring effort at Lake Peters, a glacier-fed lake in Arctic Alaska, are described and presented with accompanying methods, biases, and corrections. Three meteorological stations documented air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall at different elevations in the Lake Peters watershed. Data from ablation stake stations on Chamberlin glacier were used to quantify glacial melt, and measurements from two hydrological stations were used to reconstruct continuous discharge for the two primary inflows to Lake Peters, Carnivore and Chamberlin Creeks. The lake's thermal structure was monitored using a network of temperature sensors on moorings, the lake's water level was recorded using pressure sensors, and sedimentary inputs to the lake were documented by sediment traps. We demonstrate the utility of these datasets by examining a flood event in July 2015, though other uses include studying intra- and inter-annual trends in this weather-glacier-river-lake system, contextualizing interpretations of lakes sediment cores, and providing background for modeling studies. All DOI-referenced datasets described in this manuscript are archived at the National Science Foundation Arctic Data Center at the following overview webpage for the project: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/view/urn:uuid:517b8679-20db-4c89-a29c-6410cbd08afe (Kaufman et al., 2019e).

Climate records exhibit scaling behavior with large exponents, resulting in larger fluctuations at longer timescales. It is unclear whether climate models are capable of simulating these fluctuations, which draws into question their ability to simulate such variability in the coming decades and centuries. Using the latest simulations and data syntheses, we find agreement for spectra derived from observations and models on timescales ranging from interannual to multimillennial. Our results confirm the existence of a scaling break between orbital and annual peaks, occurring around millennial periodicities. That both simple and comprehensive ocean-atmosphere models can reproduce these features suggests that long-range persistence is a consequence of the oceanic integration of both gradual and abrupt climate forcings. This result implies that Holocene low-frequency variability is partly a consequence of the climate system's integrated memory of orbital forcing. We conclude that climate models appear to contain the essential physics to correctly simulate the spectral continuum of global-mean temperature; however, regional discrepancies remain unresolved. A critical element of successfully simulating suborbital climate variability involves, we hypothesize, initial conditions of the deep ocean state that are consistent with observations of the recent past.

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0–6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO2.

The progress of science is tied to the standardization of measurements, instruments, and data. This is especially true in the Big Data age, where analyzing large data volumes critically hinges on the data being standardized. Accordingly, the lack of community-sanctioned data standards in paleoclimatology has largely precluded the benefits of Big Data advances in the field. Building upon recent efforts to standardize the format and terminology of paleoclimate data, this article describes the Paleoclimate Community reporTing Standard (PaCTS), a crowdsourced reporting standard for such data. PaCTS captures which information should be included when reporting paleoclimate data, with the goal of maximizing the reuse value of paleoclimate data sets, particularly for synthesis work and comparison to climate model simulations. Initiated by the LinkedEarth project, the process to elicit a reporting standard involved an international workshop in 2016, various forms of digital community engagement over the next few years, and grassroots working groups. Participants in this process identified important properties across paleoclimate archives, in addition to the reporting of uncertainties and chronologies; they also identified archive-specific properties and distinguished reporting standards for new versus legacy data sets. This work shows that at least 135 respondents overwhelmingly support a drastic increase in the amount of metadata accompanying paleoclimate data sets. Since such goals are at odds with present practices, we discuss a transparent path toward implementing or revising these recommendations in the near future, using both bottom-up and top-down approaches. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved., Code and data to reproduce the figures of this article are available on GitHub and released on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.3165019). Definition of properties and recommendations are summarized here: http://wiki.linked.earth/PaCTS_v1.0 . This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through the EarthCube Program with Grant ICER‐1541029. Feedback solicitation on the standard was facilitated by the Past Global Changes (PAGES) organization. The 2016 workshop on Paleoclimate Data Standards was hosted by the World Data Service for Paleoclimatology (WDS/NOAA‐Paleo), and the participation of international attendees was made possible by a PAGES travel grant. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

•A synthesis of existing literature on Holocene climate change in Arctic Canada and Greenland.•Warmest-to-coldest millennium temperature change in the Holocene in Arctic Canada and Greenland is 3.0 ± 1.0 °C.•Thermal maximum conditions occurred earlier in high latitudes and at sites less influenced by North Atlantic circulation.

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.