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Introduction: Tracing patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care is widely practiced, yet we have little knowledge of its causal effect on care engagement. In a prospective, Zambian cohort, we examined the effect of tracing on return to care within 2 years of LTFU. Methods: We traced a stratified, random sample of LTFU patients who had received HIV care between August 2013 and July 2015. LTFU was defined as a gap of >90 days from last scheduled appointment in the routine electronic medical record. Extracting 2 years of follow-up visit data through 2017, we identified patients who returned. Using random selection for tracing as an instrumental variable (IV), we used conditional two-stage least squares regression to estimate the local average treatment effect of tracer contact on return. We examined the observational association between tracer contact and return among patient sub-groups self-confirmed as disengaged from care. Results: Of the 24,164 LTFU patients enumerated, 4380 were randomly selected for tracing and 1158 were contacted by a tracer within a median of 14.8 months post-loss. IV analysis found that patients contacted by a tracer because they were randomized to tracing were no more likely to return than those not contacted (adjusted risk difference [aRD]: 3%, 95% CI: -2%, 8%, p = 0.23). Observational data showed that among contacted, disengaged patients, the rate of return was higher in the week following tracer contact (IR 5.74, 95% CI: 3.78-8.71) than in the 2 weeks to 1-month post-contact (IR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.40-3.72). There was a greater effect of tracing among patients lost for >6 months compared to those contacted within 3 months of loss. Conclusions: Overall, tracer contact did not causally increase LTFU patient return to HIV care, demonstrating the limited impact of tracing in this program, where contact occurred months after patients were LTFU. However, observational data suggest that tracing may speed return among some LTFU patients genuinely out-of-care. Further studies may improve tracing effectiveness by examining the mechanisms underlying the impact of tracing on return to care, the effect of tracing at different times-since-loss and using more accurate identification of patients who are truly disengaged to target tracing. Keywords: causality; HIV; instrumental variable; lost to follow-up; retention in care; tracing, 1 I INTRODUCTION Consistent engagement in HIV care is critical for patient health [1-5] and achieving global epidemic control targets [6]. Retention is challenging, however, with approximately one-third of patients [...]

Despite the growing need for surrogate decision-making for older adults, little is known about how surrogates make decisions and whether advance directives would change decision-making. We conducted a nationally representative experimental survey that cross-randomized cognitive impairment, gender, and characteristics of advance care planning among hospitalized older adults through a series of vignettes. Our study yielded three main findings: first, respondents were much less likely to recommend life-sustaining treatments for patients with dementia, especially after personal exposure. Second, respondents were more likely to ignore patient preferences for life-extending treatment when the patient had dementia, and choose unwanted lifeextending treatments for patients without dementia. Third, in scenarios where the patient's wishes were unclear, respondents were more likely to choose treatments that matched their own preferences. These findings underscore the need for improved communication and decision-making processes for patients with cognitive impairment and highlight the importance of choosing a surrogate decision-maker with similar treatment preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pervasive viewpoint in health care is that higher patient volume leads to better outcomes, implying that facility volume can be used to identify high-quality providers. Hundreds of studies documenting a positive correlation between hospital volume and patient survival have motivated payers to use arbitrary minimum volume standards for elective surgical procedures, though it is unknown whether these policies actually improve patient outcomes. Using an instrumental variables approach, we show that minimum volume requirements in kidney transplantation do not reduce posttransplant mortality. These results suggest minimum volume requirements are not a useful proxy measure for quality and that restricting the number of hospitals from which patients can receive care could reduce access to necessary health care services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the effect of recent legalization of recreational marijuana use laws (RMLs) in the United States on new applications and allowances for Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income over the period 2001-2019. We combine administrative caseload data from the Social Security Administration with state policy changes using two-way fixed-effects methods. We find that RML adoption increases applications for both benefits. However, there is no change in allowances post-RML. We provide suggestive evidence that the observed changes in applications post-RML are driven by increases in marijuana misuse and selective migration, and decreases in unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of Medicare Advantage (MA) plans receive payments that exceed their costs of providing basic Medicare benefits. There is controversy about whether these payments are passed on to the enrollees as supplemental benefits or are retained by plans. We used survey data on MA beneficiaries' actual out-of-pocket (OOP) spending linked to MA payment information to test whether higher plan payments and rebates lowered enrollee OOP spending. We used instrumental variables regression models to address concerns that plan payments and rebates may reflect anticipation of enrollees with particular health-spending profiles. We found that beneficiaries recovered only $0.65 of every $1.00 in payments exceeding fee-for-service spending through lower OOP spending but more than fully recovered the value of the rebates supporting supplemental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]