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SUMMARY: The Greater Cape Floristic Region (GCFR) is renowned for its exceptional biodiversity, accommodating over 11 000 plant species, notable degree of endemism, and substantial diversification within limited plant lineages, a phenomenon ascribed to historical radiation events. While both abiotic and biotic factors contribute to this diversification, comprehensive genomic alterations, recognized as pivotal in the diversification of angiosperms, are perceived as uncommon. This investigation focuses on the genus Pteronia, a prominent representative of the Asteraceae family in the GCFR. Employing NGS‐based HybSeq and RADSeq methodologies, flow cytometry, karyology, and ecological modeling, we scrutinize the intricacies of its polyploid evolution. Phylogenetic reconstructions using 951 low‐copy nuclear genes confirm Pteronia as a well‐supported, distinct clade within the tribe Astereae. The ingroup displays a structure indicative of rapid radiation likely antedating polyploid establishment, with the two main groups demarcated by their presence or absence in the fynbos biome. Genome size analysis encompasses 1293 individuals across 347 populations, elucidating significant variation ranging from 6.1 to 34.2 pg (2C‐value). Pteronia demonstrates substantially large genome sizes within Astereae and phanerophytes. Polyploidy is identified in 31% of the studied species, with four discerned ploidy levels (2x, 4x, 6x, 8x). Cytotypes exhibit marked distinctions in environmental traits, influencing their distribution across biomes and augmenting their niche differentiation. These revelations challenge the presumed scarcity of polyploidy in the Cape flora, underscoring the imperative need for detailed population studies. The intricate evolutionary history of Pteronia, characterized by recent polyploidy and genome size variation, contributes substantially to the comprehension of diversification patterns within the GCFR biodiversity hotspot. Significance Statement: The investigation on Pteronia challenges the conventional perspective regarding polyploid scarcity within Cape flora, but contrary to anticipations, polyploid speciation does not emerge as the predominant catalyst for the observed diversity. The study accentuates the nuanced interplay between phylogenetic relationships, ploidy status, genome size, and environmental parameters, thereby reshaping the conceptual framework governing our comprehension of Pteronia's evolutionary dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding population genetic structure and its possible causal factors is critical for utilizing genetic resources and genetic breeding of economically important plants. Although Torreya grandis is an important conifer producing nuts in China, little is known about its population structure, let alone the causal factors that shaped its genetic variation pattern and population structure. In this work, we intended to characterize the genetic variation pattern and population structure of the nut-yielding conifer T. grandis throughout its whole geographical distribution and further explore the potentially causal factors for the population structure using multiple approaches. A moderate level of genetic diversity and a novel population structure were revealed in T. grandis based on eleven robust EST-SSR loci and three chloroplast fragments. Alien genetic composition derived from the closely related species T. nucifera endemic to Japan was detected in the Kuaiji Mountain area, where the seed quality of T. grandis is considered the best in China. Demography history and niche modeling were inferred and performed, and the contribution of geographic isolation to its population structure was compared with that of environmental isolation. Significant demographic changes occurred, including a dramatic population contraction during the Quaternary, and population divergence was significantly correlated with geographic distance. These results suggested that early breeding activities and demographic changes significantly contributed to the population structure of T. grandis. In turn, the population structure was potentially associated with the excellent variants and adaptation of cultivars of T. grandis. The findings provide important information for utilizing genetic resources and genetic breeding of T. grandis in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon Forest has been facing the consequences of the expansion of activities of anthropic origin. A variety of human activities has caused impacts on the environment, resulting in profound negative consequences for biodiversity. Climate change and deforestation can affect, for instance, the spatial distribution of sensitive species such as Amazonian birds. In this context, we estimate the potential distribution of Penelope pileata, an endangered cracid bird with restricted distribution in the Brazilian Amazon, in future climate change and deforestation scenarios. We projected distribution models from occurrence data of P. pileata and bioclimatic variables onto optimistic and pessimistic scenarios to assess spatial gains or losses in the distribution of this bird species. Our results showed a loss of 97.5% and 100% of the suitable area for the occurrence of P. pileata in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. We also found that this cracid bird, which is currently classified as a vulnerable species (VU) in The International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) red list, would be classified as Critically Endangered (CR) and/or extinct (EX) in the future. Thus, to ensure the conservation of P. pileata, it is crucial to develop policies for environmental protection and preservation of forest remnants that are suitable for the occurrence of this species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tick Amblyomma lepidum is an ectoparasite of veterinary importance due to its role in transmitting livestock diseases in Africa, including heartwater. This study was conducted in 2023 to monitor Amblyomma spp. infestation in dromedary camels imported from Somalia, Ethiopia, and Sudan to Egypt. This study inspected 200 camels at the Giza governorate’s camel market that had been imported from Somalia, 200 from Ethiopia, and 200 from Sudan for tick infestation. Specimens were identified using morphological characteristics and phylogenetic analyses of the 12S and 16S rRNA genes. Clusters were calculated using an unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic averages (UPGMA) dendrogram to group the specimens according to their morphometric characteristics. The morphometric analysis compared the body shape of ticks collected from different countries by analyzing dorsal features. Principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical variate analysis (CVA) were performed to obtain body shape variation among specimens from different countries. Results indicated that camels were infested by 57 males Amblyomma lepidum, and no female specimens were observed; among these specimens, one may have a morphological abnormality. The results suggest that A. lepidum specimens collected from camels imported to Egypt from African countries exhibit locally adapted morphology with variations among specimens, particularly variations in body size. This adaptation suggests minimal potential for genetic divergence. Ecological niche modeling was used to predict the areas in Africa with suitable climates for A. lepidum. The study confirmed that East African countries might have the most favorable climatic conditions for A. lepidum to thrive. Interestingly, the amount of rain during the wettest quarter (Bio16) had the strongest influence on the tick’s potential distribution, with suitability decreasing sharply as rainfall increased. Future predictions indicate that the climatic habitat suitability for A. lepidum will decrease under changing climate conditions. However, historical, current, and future predictions indicate no suitable climatic habitats for A. lepidum in Egypt. These findings demand continuous surveillance of A. lepidum in camel populations and the development of targeted strategies to manage tick infestations and prevent the spread of heartwater disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti (African) and Aedes albopictus (Asian), serve as global vectors for diseases such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, and they are currently present in Colombia. Consequently, the aim of this study was to assess the potential geographic distribution of these A. aegypti and A. albopictus vectors under both present and future environmental conditions in Colombia. To achieve this, a dataset was compiled using global records for each species, with those from Colombia being used for model validation. These records, in conjunction with layers of bioclimatic variables, were incorporated into ecological niche models. Predictions of potential distribution were made with the Maxent algorithm, using the Wallace EcoMod application for current conditions and the Java MaxEnt software for future projections, which represented three climate change scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for two time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100). Additionally, niche overlap was calculated, and the suitable habitat range and population at risk in Colombia were quantified for current predictions. It is suggested that both species share ideal areas in the country with an overlap of 0.85, covering over 70% of the country's territory and reaching altitudes higher than 2,500 m, potentially affecting at least 45% of the population. In the future for both species it is estimated that, with increasing temperatures, the potential distribution could decrease, but they could invade areas with altitudes above 3,500 m (colder). It is concluded that, currently, A. aegypti and A. albopictus could have similar geographic distribution in Colombia and that, in the following years, climate change could lead to latitudinal and altitudinal variations in the distribution areas of these vectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Black-throated Gray Warbler (Setophaga nigrescens) is a migratory songbird with a widespread and continuous distribution in the North American West. Previously published morphological data support the designation of 2 putative subspecies based on subtle differences in plumage and song; however, whether these patterns are clinal or discrete has yet to be determined. Furthermore, given that patterns of morphological variation occur across multiple distinct habitats and geographical boundaries, underlying population genetic structure may be present. To investigate this question and explore the evolutionary history of S. nigrescens, we conducted the first range-wide phylogeographic analysis of this species using genetic (mitochondrial DNA [mtDNA], ND2 gene sequences), morphological (body measurements), and environmental (niche modeling) data. Overall, our results identified 2 major mtDNA clades. One clade occurs east of the Cascade-Sierra ranges throughout the southwestern, Great Basin, and Rocky Mountain regions in North America (Interior clade), while a second widespread clade is comprised of birds that span the Pacific Northwest, and also across the Great Basin and southwest into the Rocky Mountains (Coastal clade). Divergence time estimates suggest a Pleistocene epoch vicariance event. Environmental niche models predict habitat modification and fragmentation from glacial–interglacial cycles, which were frequent over the Pleistocene. Range expansion northwards following the Last Glacial Maximum was identified from neutrality tests and shifts in suitable habitat from the Mid-Holocene to present-day conditions, where both clades are likely experiencing secondary contact. We found support for nonequivalent environmental niches among both clades based on a spatial analysis of environmental variables, with the Coastal clade showing greater tolerance to both temperate and xeric climatic conditions across the North American West; however, the environmental space occupied by both clades was more similar to each other than expected by chance. High levels of geographic overlap and a lack of discrete patterns in morphology suggest few contemporary reproductive barriers to gene flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum, Cariniana micranta, Clarisia racemosa, Couratari oblongifolia, and Vouchysia guianensis, which are targets of deforestation, to predict the impacts of climate change and identify areas for their conservation in the Amazon. For this purpose, 37 environmental variables were used, including climatic and edaphic factors. The models were fitted using five algorithms, and their performance was evaluated by the metrics Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic, and Sorensen Index. The deforestation analysis was conducted using data accumulated over a period of 14 years. The study indicated that under the most pessimistic predictions, considering continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the use of fossil fuels, SSP5–8.5, potential habitat loss for the studied species was more significant. Analyses of the species show that the Western Amazon has a greater climatic suitability area for the conservation of its genetic resources. Further study of the accumulated deforestation over 14 years showed a reduction in area for all species. Therefore, in situ conservation policies and deforestation reduction are recommended for the perpetuation of the analyzed forest species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pedagogical research has demonstrated the effectiveness of authentic, inquiry-based research experiences in a classroom context for improving both cognitive and noncognitive learning outcomes for a broad range of students. Ecology labs are especially suitable for authentic classroom research experiences because they can be designed to integrate a number of important scientific skills. Here we describe a scaffolded, semester-long Course-based Undergraduate Research Experience (CURE) for an introductory ecology lab intended for sophomore-level university students who have completed introductory biology coursework. Learning objectives and skills emphasized by this project cover the gamut of activities involved in implementing a multi-part, collaborative scientific project. These include scientific thinking, proper collection and curation of data, analytical skills (e.g., statistical reasoning, using statistical Geographic Information System [GIS] software), and communicating project results in both written and oral format. We emphasize the larger-scale collaborative framework as an approach that students are unlikely to have encountered previously, despite being applied commonly among practicing scientists. We also discuss ways this project could be scaled for different grade levels, access to field sites, and access to computing and other resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing niche evolution remains an open question and an actively developing area of study. The family Ursidae consists of eight extant species for which, despite being the most studied family of carnivores, little is known about the influence of climate on their evolutionary history and diversification. We evaluated their evolutionary patterns based on a combined phylogeography and niche modeling approach. We used complete mitogenomes, estimated divergence times, generated ecological niche models and applied a phyloclimatic model to determine the species evolutionary and diversification patterns associated with their respective environmental niches. We inferred the family evolutionary path along the environmental conditions of maximum temperature and minimum precipitation, from around 20 million years ago to the present. Our findings show that the phyloclimatic niches of the bear species occupy most of the environmental space available on the planet, except for the most extreme warm conditions, in accordance with the wide geographic distribution of Ursidae. Moreover, some species exhibit broader environmental niches than others, and in some cases, they explore precipitation axes more extensively than temperature axes or vice versa, suggesting that not all species are equally adaptable to these variables. We were able to elucidate potential patterns of niche conservatism and evolution, as well as niche overlapping, suggesting interspecific competitive exclusion between some of the bear species. We present valuable insights into the ecological and evolutionary processes driving the diversification and distribution of the Ursidae. Our approach also provides essential information for guiding effective conservation strategies, particularly in terms of distribution limits in the face of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation strategies often assume uniform response to habitat loss and fragmentation among species. We investigated whether bird species' responses to habitat changes vary based on their distribution range and local environmental suitability. Additionally, we explored associations between sensitivity responses and species traits, like dispersal ability, habitat specialization, and distribution range size. Our study focused on the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, encompassing 179 landscape sites and 81 bird species. Using additive and interactive relationships and used principal component analysis to correlate species traits with sensitivity patterns. We found four distinct patterns of population sensitivity patterns: no effect of geographical range or environmental suitability (21% of the species), higher sensitivity at the geographical edges or low suitability (14%), lower sensitivity in core or better areas (11%) or both extremes responding similarly (11%), with species showing no response to landscape changes (43%). Biogeographic and landscape factors interactively influenced population abundance, resulting in antagonistic or synergistic effects. Population responses to habitat loss and fragmentation varied based on range position or environmental suitability but weren’t consistently explained by species traits. Given these nuanced results, conservationists must refrain from generalizing species sensitivity without accounting for distribution range position and environmental suitability. To ensure the long-term survival of biodiversity, conservation efforts should be tailored to each species' specific needs, taking into account their spatial position and the synergistic or antagonistic effects of environmental stressors. Such targeted conservation efforts will be crucial in mitigating the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on bird populations within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Ceratophrys ornata is an iconic and regionally threatened amphibian of the temperate grasslands from Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Conservation assessments suggested that habitat loss is the main threat to the species, although no studies have yet explored the link between grassland replacement and C. ornata decline. Using a robust database with ∼1000 records from herpetological collections, citizen science, and long-term monitoring, we modeled the species' ecological niche to produce a map of suitable areas, where we searched for C. ornata using active and passive techniques. After exhaustive efforts, we failed to obtain recent records from Brazil and Uruguay. We also conducted Generalized Linear Models to explore the relationship between land use/cover, landscape configuration, and current species occurrence. Overall, results showed that C. ornata occurrence is negatively associated with variables related to native grasslands fragmentation and replacement (i.e., Distance to the Nearest Patch, Forest Plantations), suggesting that habitat loss may have driven local extinctions and population declines of the species. Finally, we outline the regional and national conservation needs of C. ornata and recommend focusing on in-situ conservation strategies for the Argentinean populations to ensure the species' viability.

The rosy wolfsnail (Euglandina rosea) is a carnivorous, highly detrimental invader in many parts of the world. Although its negative impact on endemic island mollusk populations has been well documented, little is known about its range expansion in North America, where populations are not constrained by oceanic barriers. In this study, we present three compelling lines of evidence indicating significant ongoing and projected geographic range expansion of E. rosea: (1) We analyze the current range using data from iNaturalist; (2) we report on the demographics and persistence of an isolated extra-limital satellite population in Nashville, Tennessee, since its discovery in 2006; and (3) we employ a predictive ecological model that incorporates environmental variables indicating that the range expansion will continue into the central U.S. well beyond its present range. The findings of this study shed light on the underlying mechanisms behind the invasion of this species. First, the invasion is frequently associated with jump dispersal events, which are often linked to horticultural and landscaping activities. Second, the establishment and proliferation of satellite populations are facilitated by common landscape management practices, such as irrigation, as well as the urban heat island effect (UHI). Third, there is a possible synergistic interplay between the UHI effect and climate change that accelerates the range expansion via global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lippia javanica is a typical indigenous plant species mostly found in the higher elevation or mountainous regions in southern, central, and eastern Africa. The ongoing utilization of the species for ethnobotanical applications and traditional uses, coupled with the changing climate, increases the risk of a potential reduction in its geographic distribution range in the region. Herein, we utilized the MaxEnt species distribution modelling to build the L. javanica distribution models in tropical and subtropical African regions for current and future climates. The MaxEnt models were calibrated and fitted using 286 occurrence records and six environmental variables. Temperatures, including temperature seasonality [Bio 4] and the maximum temperature of the warmest month [Bio 5], were observed to be the most significant determinants of L. javanica's distribution. The current projected range for L. javanica was estimated to be 2,118,457 km2. Future model predictions indicated that L. javanica may increase its geographic distribution in western areas of the continent and regions around the equator; however, much of the geographic range in southern Africa may shift southwards, causing the species to lose portions of the northern limits of the habitat range. These current findings can help increase the conservation of L. javanica and other species and combat localized species loss induced by climate change and human pressure. We also emphasize the importance of more investigations and enhanced surveillance of traditionally used plant species in regions that are acutely susceptible to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Climate and land use change may cause the geographical range of mosquitoes to expand, shift, or contract, ultimately changing what communities are at risk for contracting mosquito-borne diseases. Across North and South America, mosquitoes from the Aedes and Culex genera are vectors for numerous diseases, including chikungunya, dengue, various equine encephalitis viruses, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, yellow fever virus, and Zika virus. The goal of our study was to project the geographical distributions of important mosquito vectors across North and South America in response to climate change, which is important to inform public health planning. Methods: We used an ecological niche model and future projections of climate and land use to project the geographical ranges of two Aedes species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus) and seven Culex species (Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans, Cx. salinarius, Cx. tarsalis) over North and South America in response to both a high (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 5, Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5) and moderate (SSP2 RCP4.5) climate warming scenario through years 2050 and 2090. Results: For SSP5 RCP8.5, six species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. restuans) are projected to expand in geographical range, two species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. tarsalis) are projected to shift in geographical range, and one species (Cx. salinarius) is projected to nearly remain the same. Five species (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Cx. erraticus, Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus) show the largest increase in high habitat suitability (>0.5 on a 0–1 scale) for SSP5 RCP8.5, three species (Cx. pipiens, Cx. restuans, Cx. tarsalis) show the largest increase for SSP2 RCP4.5, and one species (Cx. salinarius) shows a relatively small decrease in response to both scenarios. Conclusions: We found that all nine species responded resiliently to climate change under both the high and moderate climate warming scenario, suggesting mosquito-borne disease is likely to be a continued threat in response to climate change. The projected geographical ranges can be used to inform disease risk analyses and mitigation strategies in response to climate change.

Dermacentor nuttalli, a member of family Ixodidae and genus Dermacentor, is predominantly found in North Asia. It transmits various pathogens of human and animal diseases, such as Lymphocytic choriomeningitis mammarenavirus and Brucella ovis, leading to severe symptoms in patients and posing serious hazards to livestock husbandry. To profile pathogen abundances of wild D. nuttalli, metagenomic sequencing was performed of four field-collected tick samples, revealing that Rickettsia, Streptomyces, and Pseudomonas were the most abundant bacterial genera in D. nuttalli. Specifically, four nearly complete Rickettsia genomes were assembled, closely relative to Rickettsia conorii subsp. raoultii. Then, a comprehensive meta-analysis was performed to evaluate its potential threats based on detected pathogens and geographical distribution positions reported in literature, reference books, related websites, and field surveys. At least 48 pathogens were identified, including 20 species of bacteria, seven species of eukaryota, and 21 species of virus. Notably, Rickettsia conorii subsp. raoultii, Coxiella burnetii, and Brucella ovis displayed remarkably high positivity rates, which were known to cause infectious diseases in both humans and livestock. Currently, the primary distribution of D. nuttalli spans China, Mongolia, and Russia. However, an additional 14 countries in Asia and America that may also be affected by D. nuttalli were identified in our niche model, despite no previous reports of its presence in these areas. This study provides comprehensive data and analysis on the pathogens carried by D. nuttalli, along with documented and potential distribution, suggesting an emerging threat to public health and animal husbandry. Therefore, there is a need for heightened surveillance and thorough investigation of D. nuttalli.

Orchid germination depends on their fungal partner; however, there are no broadscale analyses evaluating the actual overlap between orchids and their mycorrhizal symbionts. The aim of this research was to evaluate the importance of mycorrhizal fungi for the occurrence of two species of orchids using ecological niche modeling (ENM). Two sets of future orchid distribution models were created – the first one was based on bioclimatic data only, and the second one included information about the distribution of fungal symbionts. The jackknife test indicated that for both mixotrophic and mycoheterotrophic orchids, the presence of symbiotic fungi is crucial for their occurrence, and ENM analyses revealed that both orchids face habitat loss as a result of predicted changes in climate. In the case of the mixotrophic orchid, the presence of symbiotic fungi can compensate for unfavorable climatic conditions. Problems and limitations in modeling the distributions of species are discussed in terms of the symbiotic relationship.

Understanding population genetic structure and its possible causal factors is critical for utilizing genetic resources and genetic breeding of economically important plants. Although Torreya grandis is an important conifer producing nuts in China, little is known about its population structure, let alone the causal factors that shaped its genetic variation pattern and population structure. In this work, we intended to characterize the genetic variation pattern and population structure of the nut-yielding conifer T. grandis throughout its whole geographical distribution and further explore the potentially causal factors for the population structure using multiple approaches. A moderate level of genetic diversity and a novel population structure were revealed in T. grandis based on eleven robust EST-SSR loci and three chloroplast fragments. Alien genetic composition derived from the closely related species T. nucifera endemic to Japan was detected in the Kuaiji Mountain area, where the seed quality of T. grandis is considered the best in China. Demography history and niche modeling were inferred and performed, and the contribution of geographic isolation to its population structure was compared with that of environmental isolation. Significant demographic changes occurred, including a dramatic population contraction during the Quaternary, and population divergence was significantly correlated with geographic distance. These results suggested that early breeding activities and demographic changes significantly contributed to the population structure of T. grandis. In turn, the population structure was potentially associated with the excellent variants and adaptation of cultivars of T. grandis. The findings provide important information for utilizing genetic resources and genetic breeding of T. grandis in the future.

Tephroseris helenitis is a perennial herb that experienced a severe decline of species records over the last 120 years in the state of Hessia, Germany. Here, the species is found in humid habitats with moderate temperatures. In this modeling study, we assessed changes in climatic conditions between the periods 1900–1949, 1950–1979, 1980–1999 and 2000–2020 and explored whether these changes can explain the decline of records of T. helenitis. Climatic variables used were monthly precipitation sums, monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly temperature ranges as well as annual precipitation sum and annual mean temperature. For the majority of these variables, changes were significant across periods. Minimum temperatures in March, April and July (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) best explained species presences and absences in 1900–1949 and 1950–1979. The species shifted its realized niche towards lower Tmin_Mar and narrowed its niche on Tmin_Apr and Tmin_Jul between these two periods. March, April and July are crucial in the life cycle of T. helenitis. Tmin_Mar and Tmin_Apr are related to the induction of flowering through a period of low temperatures (vernalization), and Tmin_Jul is related to seed germination. Documented increasing March and April temperatures as well as autumn and winter temperatures in the past 120 years may imply that vernalization became increasingly unsuccessful for the species and increasing July temperatures may have decreased its germination success. Given the disappearance of its temperature niche (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) due to ongoing global warming not only in Hessia and Germany, we anticipate that T. helenitis will go extinct in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climatic and other impactful environmental changes continue to gain momentum pollination, services are poised to be harmed, and wild bee species are not an exception. In the present study, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict the potential climatic niches of five wild bee species, namely, Chalicodoma flavipes, Chalicodoma sicula, Coelioxys coturnix, Megachile minutissima, and Osmia submicans (all of Megachilidae: Megachilinae). The Maxent model performed better than random for the five species, and all model predictions were significantly robust, giving ratios above null expectations. Under future climate change scenarios, the Maxent model predicted habitat loss for C. flavipes, C. sicula, and M. minutissima in North Africa and habitat loss for O. submicans in Europe and North Africa in all scenarios. Conversely, the study showed that the cleptoparasitic bee Co. coturnix would expand their suitable habitat in most scenarios in Europe, Asia, and the United States, although this species would also suffer habitat loss in North Africa in two scenarios. Between the present situation and future scenarios, the potential distribution for all species decreased in their suitable habitat, with the exception of Co. coturnix. The present results are of considerable value for informed conservation programs and policy decisions regarding wild pollinators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Quaternary, Chaco Phytogeographic Domain (Chaco) flora in subtropical South America experienced temperature and humidity fluctuations, primarily driven by wind dynamics, leading to significant shifts in species distribution. The palm Butia yatay is endemic to the Chaco and thrives in areas characterized by a warm–rainy climate and mostly restricted to sandy soils. To investigate the current geographic distribution of suitable habitat for B. yatay while assessing the significance of soil variables, we employed two distinct algorithms in species distribution modeling (SDM). We also determined whether the distribution of B. yatay has changed since the Pleistocene and whether these changes align with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia. In the present SDMs, we considered two separate sets of predictors, one set with bioclimatic variables only and the other set with bioclimatic topographic and soil variables. Additionally, we reconstructed the historical geographic distribution of suitable habitats using bioclimatic data. Our results suggested that the primary determinants of B. yatay's current distribution include precipitation and temperature of the driest month and soil cation exchange capacity. Incorporating soil variables affected the estimated size and range of suitable areas. Projections into the past indicated similar suitable habitat distributions during interglacial periods compared with the present. During the Last Glacial Maximum, climatically suitable habitat may have shifted northward, partially overlapping with previously suggested Pleistocene refugia located between the Paraná and Uruguay Rivers. These findings indicate the main factors driving the distribution and ecology of B. yatay and enhance understanding of subtropical flora shifts during the Quaternary. The approach also may prove valuable for other studies within the Chaco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae) is the only surviving species of the genus Glyptostrobus. Although the species is widely cultivated throughout China, in the wild it only occurs as small stands in southeastern China, central Laos, and southern Vietnam. However, its low genetic variability, lack of recruitment, and the progressive destruction of its habitat caused by humans, have meant that the populations are showing a clear declining trend and the species as a whole is threatened. Ecological niche modeling is used here to study the present potential distribution, as well as in the future (2061–2080) using several global circulation models under two of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 126 and SSP 585) that are being used to produce the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The current potential area of G. pensilis is of 1,452,481 km2 with the areas of greatest probability of presence located in southeastern China. This potential area is reduced for the future according to most models, with greater losses for the SSP 585 scenario. Between 6.9 and 31.3% of all wild populations of G. pensilis would be outside potential areas (including the Lao populations, which harbor the highest levels of genetic variability). Conservation measures include the expansion of the current network of protected areas (since over 90% of wild populations do not occur within them), the development of propagation techniques, and the carrying out of translocation activities that should require international collaboration among the countries in which the species is found. With the current knowledge, we have reassessed the threat status of the species under the IUCN criteria, downgrading it from CR to EN both for China and at global level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting where invasive plants are likely to spread and become abundant is critical for informing invasive plant management. Species distribution models are a key tool for informing the geography of invasion risk, but most distribution models are limited by their use of presence data, including no information on invader population abundance. In this study, we ask how habitat suitability varies for different levels of abundance for three invasive plants: stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum), sericea lespedeza (Lespedeza cuneata), and privet (Ligustrum sinense). For each species, we used an ensemble distribution modeling approach to compare suitability for invasion estimated from subsets of point location data: all presences vs. locations with percent cover ≥ 1%, ≥ 5%, ≥ 10%, ≥ 25%, and ≥ 50%. For all species, the total area predicted as suitable for abundant populations was 32%–68% less than the area predicted as suitable for presence. For stiltgrass and sericea lespedeza, the area suitable for invasion decreased when predicted from higher levels of abundance, whereas for privet, suitable area was similar across abundance levels. Stiltgrass and sericea lespedeza are therefore likely to become highly abundant in a smaller portion of their ranges, while privet could become highly abundant anywhere it can establish at low abundance. Different environmental predictors explained suitability for presence versus abundance, suggesting the environmental niche associated with presence differs from that associated with high population abundance. Analyses of more species and growth forms are still needed, but our results combined with previous studies consistently show that fitting distribution models to point locations with ≥ 5–10% cover refines range maps and can produce a more targeted assessment of invasion risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dioscorea remotiflora, a perennial climbing herbaceous plant native to Mexico, produces tubers with great nutritional and ethnobotanical value. However, most ecological aspects of this plant remain unknown, which limits its cultivation and use. This is why the objective of this research was to characterize the ecogeography of D. remotiflora as a source to determine its edaphoclimatic adaptability and current and potential distribution. A comprehensive database encompassing 480 geo-referenced accessions was assembled from different data sources. Using the Agroclimatic Information System for México and Central America (SIAMEXCA), 42 environmental variables were formulated. The MaxEnt model within the Kuenm R package was employed to predict the species distribution. The findings reveal a greater presence of D. remotiflora in harsh environments, characterized by arid to semiarid conditions, poor soils, and hot climates with long dry periods. Niche modeling revealed that seven key variables determine the geographical distribution of D. remotiflora: precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, November–April solar radiation, annual mean relative humidity, annual moisture availability index, and May–October mean temperature. The current potential distribution of D. remotiflora is 428,747.68 km2. Favorable regions for D. remotiflora coincide with its current presence sites, while other suitable areas, such as the Yucatán Peninsula, northeast region, and Gulf of Mexico, offer potential expansion opportunities for the species distribution. The comprehensive characterization of Dioscorea remotiflora, encompassing aspects such as its soil habitats and climate adaptation, becomes essential not only for understanding its ecology but also for maximizing its economic potential. This will enable not only its sustainable use but also the exploration of commercial applications in sectors such as the pharmaceutical and food industries, thus providing a broader approach for its conservation and optimal utilization in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leonurus japonicus Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild L. japonicus resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of L. japonicus to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of L. japonicus were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of L. japonicus. When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that L. japonicus were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. japonicus. Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of L. japonicus will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of L. japonicus has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126‐2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585‐2090s scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptic species represent a substantial fraction of the diversity of Drosophilidae, hampering studies on species ecologies and their evolution. Anthophilous species within the Drosophila lutzii group encompass some of the most widely distributed Neotropical lineages. Nevertheless, their ranges, ecologies, divergence times, and phylogenetic relationships are largely unknown. In this study, we analyzed the cryptic diversity of the lutzii species complex occurring in Southern Brazil and shed light on the ecological and evolutionary processes underlying their current patterns of coexistence. We used an integrative approach, evaluating molecular, ecological, and morphological traits under an evolutionary ecology framework. We documented the unexpected occurrence of D. alei in Southern Brazil, whose range was only known for the Andean region. Our phylogenetic analysis indicated that despite morphological similarities, D. alei is more closely related to D. denieri than to D. lutzii , and that divergence among these three species dates back to the Neogene (7.3 Mya). Niche modeling suggests that D. denieri and D. lutzii populations expanded their ranges and were established in Southern Brazil during the Quaternary (150 kya), being affected by similar paleoclimatic events. On the other hand, D. alei shows distinct abiotic requirements than D. denieri and D. lutzii , and environmental distribution models suggested a significant reduction in its suitable areas during the Quaternary, especially in Southern Brazil. This suggests that the current sympatry observed in this region likely reflects a secondary contact between the three species resulting from niche divergence processes. Altogether, these results advance the understanding of the distribution and phylogenetic relationships of Neotropical anthophilous Drosophila , revealing the interplay between ecological and historical factors in their speciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing niche evolution remains an open question and an actively developing area of study. The family Ursidae consists of eight extant species for which, despite being the most studied family of carnivores, little is known about the influence of climate on their evolutionary history and diversification. We evaluated their evolutionary patterns based on a combined phylogeography and niche modeling approach. We used complete mitogenomes, estimated divergence times, generated ecological niche models and applied a phyloclimatic model to determine the species evolutionary and diversification patterns associated with their respective environmental niches. We inferred the family evolutionary path along the environmental conditions of maximum temperature and minimum precipitation, from around 20 million years ago to the present. Our findings show that the phyloclimatic niches of the bear species occupy most of the environmental space available on the planet, except for the most extreme warm conditions, in accordance with the wide geographic distribution of Ursidae. Moreover, some species exhibit broader environmental niches than others, and in some cases, they explore precipitation axes more extensively than temperature axes or vice versa, suggesting that not all species are equally adaptable to these variables. We were able to elucidate potential patterns of niche conservatism and evolution, as well as niche overlapping, suggesting interspecific competitive exclusion between some of the bear species. We present valuable insights into the ecological and evolutionary processes driving the diversification and distribution of the Ursidae. Our approach also provides essential information for guiding effective conservation strategies, particularly in terms of distribution limits in the face of climate change.

Abstract Tephroseris helenitis is a perennial herb that experienced a severe decline of species records over the last 120 years in the state of Hessia, Germany. Here, the species is found in humid habitats with moderate temperatures. In this modeling study, we assessed changes in climatic conditions between the periods 1900–1949, 1950–1979, 1980–1999 and 2000–2020 and explored whether these changes can explain the decline of records of T. helenitis. Climatic variables used were monthly precipitation sums, monthly mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly temperature ranges as well as annual precipitation sum and annual mean temperature. For the majority of these variables, changes were significant across periods. Minimum temperatures in March, April and July (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) best explained species presences and absences in 1900–1949 and 1950–1979. The species shifted its realized niche towards lower Tmin_Mar and narrowed its niche on Tmin_Apr and Tmin_Jul between these two periods. March, April and July are crucial in the life cycle of T. helenitis. Tmin_Mar and Tmin_Apr are related to the induction of flowering through a period of low temperatures (vernalization), and Tmin_Jul is related to seed germination. Documented increasing March and April temperatures as well as autumn and winter temperatures in the past 120 years may imply that vernalization became increasingly unsuccessful for the species and increasing July temperatures may have decreased its germination success. Given the disappearance of its temperature niche (Tmin_Mar, Tmin_Apr, Tmin_Jul) due to ongoing global warming not only in Hessia and Germany, we anticipate that T. helenitis will go extinct in Europe.

Abstract During the Quaternary, Chaco Phytogeographic Domain (Chaco) flora in subtropical South America experienced temperature and humidity fluctuations, primarily driven by wind dynamics, leading to significant shifts in species distribution. The palm Butia yatay is endemic to the Chaco and thrives in areas characterized by a warm–rainy climate and mostly restricted to sandy soils. To investigate the current geographic distribution of suitable habitat for B. yatay while assessing the significance of soil variables, we employed two distinct algorithms in species distribution modeling (SDM). We also determined whether the distribution of B. yatay has changed since the Pleistocene and whether these changes align with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia. In the present SDMs, we considered two separate sets of predictors, one set with bioclimatic variables only and the other set with bioclimatic topographic and soil variables. Additionally, we reconstructed the historical geographic distribution of suitable habitats using bioclimatic data. Our results suggested that the primary determinants of B. yatay's current distribution include precipitation and temperature of the driest month and soil cation exchange capacity. Incorporating soil variables affected the estimated size and range of suitable areas. Projections into the past indicated similar suitable habitat distributions during interglacial periods compared with the present. During the Last Glacial Maximum, climatically suitable habitat may have shifted northward, partially overlapping with previously suggested Pleistocene refugia located between the Paraná and Uruguay Rivers. These findings indicate the main factors driving the distribution and ecology of B. yatay and enhance understanding of subtropical flora shifts during the Quaternary. The approach also may prove valuable for other studies within the Chaco.

Abstract Leonurus japonicus Houtt. is a traditional Chinese medicinal plant with high medicinal and edible value. Wild L. japonicus resources have reduced dramatically in recent years. This study predicted the response of distribution range of L. japonicus to climate change in China, which provided scientific basis for the conservation and utilization. In this study, 489 occurrence points of L. japonicus were selected based on GIS technology and spThin package. The default parameters of MaxEnt model were adjusted by using ENMeva1 package of R environment, and the optimized MaxEnt model was used to analyze the distribution of L. japonicus. When the feature combination in the model parameters is hing and the regularization multiplier is 1.5, the MaxEnt model has a higher degree of optimization. With the AUC of 0.830, our model showed a good predictive performance. The results showed that L. japonicus were widely distributed in the current period. The maximum temperature of warmest month, the min temperature of coldest month, the precipitation of wettest month, the precipitation of driest month, and altitude were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. japonicus. Under the three climate change scenarios, the suitable distribution area of L. japonicus will range shift to high latitudes, indicating that the distribution of L. japonicus has a strong response to climate change. The regional change rate is the lowest under the SSP126‐2090s scenario and the highest under the SSP585‐2090s scenario.

Recent field and modeling studies provide evidence that animals are helping plants track their niches in a changing climate. Key methods include seed tracking (via isotopes or DNA), mapping seed deposition using animal telemetry or simulations, and niche models. Niche tracking requires (i) seed availability and animal disperser movement toward newly suitable locations to be synchronous, (ii) landscapes that enable movement toward newly suitable areas, and (iii) deposition microsites which support plant recruitment and population establishment. Niche tracking effectiveness is a framework for assessing the role of dispersers in helping plants track their climatic niches and successfully establish populations in locations newly suitable due to climate change. Plant and animal traits, together with landscape characteristics, can help predict animal-mediated niche tracking. Over half of plant species are animal-dispersed, and our understanding of how animals can help plants move in response to climate change – a process known as niche tracking – is limited, but advancing rapidly. Recent research efforts find evidence that animals are helping plants track their niches. They also identify key conditions needed for animal-mediated niche tracking to occur, including alignment of the timing of seed availability, the directionality of animal movements, and microhabitat conditions where seeds are deposited. A research framework that measures niche tracking effectiveness by considering all parts of the niche-tracking process, and links together data and models from multiple disciplines, will lead to further insight and inform actions to help ecosystems adapt to a changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant fraction of higher plants in China are threatened due to dramatic landscape transformation and increasing climate change. However, the conservation effectiveness of threatened higher plants (THPs) and their response to climate change are still underexplored to date. Based on the latest list of THPs in China, we obtained 102 593 occurrence records with latitude and longitude for 3858 THPs. By integrating the distribution patterns of three biodiversity indexes (i.e., species richness, species complementarity, and weighted endemism) and 10 plant categories, we identified hotspots for THPs and calculated the conservation effectiveness of nature reserves. We then selected 1959 THPs to project the shift of species richness and range sizes under climate change (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 2.6 and RCP 8.5). In total, 16 hotspot areas covering 7.38% of Chinese land area and containing 91.73% of THPs were identified. Current nature reserves protected 35.05% of hotspots, 73.07% of all THPs, and 56.64% of narrow‐ranged species. By the 2070s, the species richness of THPs were predicted to decrease in Southeast and Central China, and 42.42% (RCP 2.6) and 51.40% (RCP 8.5) of the 1959 THPs would confront habitat contraction. Future conservation efforts should focus on the conservation gaps and carry out targeted conservation for THPs with narrow distribution range. In order to cope with climate change, the hotspots with relatively low species loss can serve as important areas to contain current species diversity and the areas with high species gain offer opportunities for ex‐situ conservation of THPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used Maxent to model the distribution of the Nilgiri marten (Martes gwatkinsii), a cryptic semi-arboreal mammal, with climate, forest, and human disturbance as covariates. We modelled the species niche, which identified suitable habitat across a variety of land uses and protection regimes. The findings point to a species niche defined by isolated, cold, and wet areas along the Western Ghats' montane grasslands (shola) and adjoining wet forests. A sizable portion (62 %) of the total 8922 km2 niche area is multi-use, including tea, coffee, and timber plantations. Our findings emphasise the importance of conservation in non-protected areas adjacent to reserves in order to sustain this endemic species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Codling moth, Cydia pomonella L. (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the key insect pest of apple orchards in Iran. This study was conducted in the main apple-growing regions of East Azarbaijan Province to generate potential habitat suitability maps of C. pomonella using MaxEnt modeling and to determine the importance of vegetation index in improving the accuracy of these models. Field surveys for collecting the occurrence data of codling moth were conducted during three growing seasons, 2017 - 2019. The activity of codling moth adult males was monitored using delta-shaped traps baited with female sex pheromone. Fifteen environmental variables were considered as potential predictors for estimating codling moth distribution. These variables were categorized into topographic, climatic, and remote sensing variables. A MaxEnt modeling algorithm was used to predict the distribution of codling moth. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). By using the topographic, climatic, and topographic+climatic variables, the AUC values were 0.840, 0.951, and 0.938, respectively. The model including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had the highest AUC value (0.99), which strongly supports model predictive power and indicates the importance of vegetation index in codling moth distribution modeling. NDVI was the most contributed variable in the model followed by precipitation of September, slope, minimum temperature of May, and mean temperature of April. The distribution map obtained in MaxEnt provides an important tool for identifying potential risk zones of codling moth. This map can assist managers in forecasting and planning control measures and therefore, effective management of current infestations of codling moth.

Anthropogenic climate change can have a negative impact on the distribution of habitat specialist species with narrow distributional ranges. Among the many areas around the world affected by climate change, the Himalayan region in particular is experiencing marked effects of global warming on its climatic patterns and life forms. This study assessed the current distribution of Assamese macaques (Macaca assamensis) in western Nepal, and projected their likely distribution (via habitat suitability modeling) for the years 2050 and 2070 under the two most plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0). We recorded a total of 159 Assamese macaques belonging to 10 groups (nine of them residing outside of protected area networks) between 684m and 2550m asl in western Nepal. Climatic niche modeling predicted that 37.03% (25,114 km2) of the total area of western Nepal (67,813 km2) represented suitable habitat of the species, the majority of which ranged between 1000 m and 2000 m asl. Future projections of the current climatic niche of the Assamese macaques revealed a consistent decrease in the suitable habitat for 2050 and 2070 in both of the greenhouse emission scenarios tested. With the RCP6.0 scenario, almost 57% of the current highly suitable habitat would be lost by 2070 with remaining suitable habitat shifted towards higher elevations. The loss of habitat directly affects the species survival and the range shift towards higher elevation exposes them to new areas for conflict with humans. Therefore, the Assamese macaque population in western Nepal requires a high conservation priority with the establishment of new protected areas.

The Cryptotis goodwini species group of small-eared shrews (Eulipotyphla, Soricidae) includes at least 12 species discontinuously distributed in the cloud forests from southern Mexico to Honduras. Its taxonomy is still under study, with several species described only in the last decade. Previous genetic studies have highlighted that a population from El Triunfo Biosphere Reserve in Chiapas, Mexico, previously assigned to C. goodwini , is evolutionarily divergent from the other known species. However, the available specimens from this region have not been examined rigorously. Herein, I use morphological and biogeographic analyses to evaluate the taxonomic status of this population. The results confirm that it is an independent lineage, which I describe here as a new species endemic to Mexico. Overall, this is the largest shrew within the C. goodwini group. Its morphological and genetic distinction is probably due to long-term geographic isolation in the mountains of El Triunfo. I present what is now the first and only record of C. goodwini (sensu stricto) for Mexico. Finally, I identify some priority regions to direct field surveys on the C. goodwini species group to better understand its richness and distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological traps occur when species choose to settle in lower‐quality habitats, even if this reduces their survival or productivity. This happens in situations of drastic environmental changes, resulting from anthropogenic pressures. In long term, this could mean the extinction of the species. We investigated the dynamics of occurrence and distribution of three canid species (Atelocynus microtis, Cerdocyon thous, and Spheotos venaticus) considering human threats to their habitats in the Amazon Rainforest. We analyzed the environmental thresholds for the occurrence of these species and related to the future projections of climatic niches for each one. All three species will be negatively affected by climate change in the future, with losses of up to 91% of the suitable area of occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon. A. microtis appear to be more forest‐dependent and must rely on the goodwill of decision‐makers to be maintained in the future. For C. thous and S. venaticus, climatic variables and those associated with anthropogenic disturbances that modulate their niches today may not act the same way in the future. Even though C. thous is least dependent on the Amazon Forest; this species may be affected in the future due to the ecological traps. S. venaticus, can also undergo the same process, but perhaps more drastically due to the lower ecological plasticity of this species compared to C. thous. Our results suggest that the ecological traps may put these two species at risk in the future. Using the canid species as a model, we had the opportunity to investigate these ecological effects that can affect a large part of the Amazonian fauna in the current scenario. Considering the high degree of environmental degradation and deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest, the theory of ecological traps must be discussed at the same level as the habitat loss, considering the strategies for preserving the Amazon biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Black-browed Albatross (BBA), Thalassarche melanophris, is one of the most abundant and widespread pelagic seabirds in the southern hemisphere, considered an indicator species of climate change in Antarctica. In addition to the known negative interactions with fisheries, other threats may act indirectly on this species whose effects have not yet been evaluated, such as increased sea surface temperature due to climate change. Under the assumption that carbon emissions modify the distribution of BBA, we modeled the environmental suitability and inferred BBA distribution under future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100. We used 23 years of observation data (1991–2020) from research vessels in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean and Antarctica to estimate habitat suitability and predict change in suitability for the two future time ranges (2040–2050 and 2090–2100) under four representative concentration pathway scenarios: optimistic, intermediate pessimistic. Our projections predict a reduction in the total habitat suitability for BBA by 8% and 31.4% by 2050 and 2100, respectively, in the worst-case scenario compared to the present. Our study enhances understanding of the factors driving distribution dynamics for the species and aid in the development of conservation areas under future global change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although rivers are known to promote diversification and shape phylogeographic patterns, they can also be permeable and facilitate the dispersal of species. Using multiple molecular methodological approaches, we conducted a phylogeographic investigation of two semiaquatic snake species with continental distributions across South America, testing how environmental and historical factors (e.g., potential allopatric divergence across rivers) have affected their evolutionary history. Our results show that Hydrodynastes gigas and H. bicinctus have a recent divergence time (~1.5 mya) and that both species have low genetic diversity with no geographic structure. Population genetic divergence in H. gigas is explained by geographic distance (isolation-by-distance), climate (isolation-by-environment), and hydrographic basin. Paleo-niche models suggest that historically stable regions of habitat suitability for both taxa are largely restricted to the La Plata basin. We suggest that life history traits of these species, for example high dispersal capabilities and generalist ecologies, have allowed for their extensive geographic distributions and population connectivity resulting in no geographic structure and low genetic variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: With human activities and climate change threatening biodiversity, marine resource managers must establish globally oriented, data-driven conservation practices. As the internet expands and the world becomes more connected, science is more accessible than ever, requiring only the internet to access powerful computing tools and expansive databases. Here, we demonstrate the power of citizen science, online databases, and open-source tools by using citizen-derived jellyfish reports from iNaturalist.org (accessed on 3 November 2022) in conjunction with publicly available environmental data to predict the distribution of the most conspicuous and economically relevant group of marine jellyfishes (Rhizostomeae). Online databases come with many biases, most of which can be tied back to resolution. The integration of distribution data from the published literature allows us to evaluate citizen-derived data quality and make a plan for improving data resolution. Going forward, expanding collaborations and citizen participation in underrepresented regions will decrease participation biases and improve data resolution, increasing the power of online databases and their potential to inform marine management strategies. As climate change progresses rapidly, biodiversity declines, and ecosystems shift, it is becoming increasingly difficult to document dynamic populations, track fluctuations, and predict responses to climate change. Concurrently, publicly available databases and tools are improving scientific accessibility, increasing collaboration, and generating more data than ever before. One of the most successful projects is iNaturalist, an AI-driven social network doubling as a public database designed to allow citizen scientists to report personal biodiversity reports with accuracy. iNaturalist is especially useful for the research of rare, dangerous, and charismatic organisms, but requires better integration into the marine system. Despite their abundance and ecological relevance, there are few long-term, high-sample datasets for jellyfish, which makes management difficult. To provide some high-sample datasets and demonstrate the utility of publicly collected data, we synthesized two global datasets for ten genera of jellyfishes in the order Rhizostomeae containing 8412 curated datapoints from both iNaturalist (n = 7807) and the published literature (n = 605). We then used these reports in conjunction with publicly available environmental data to predict global niche partitioning and distributions. Initial niche models inferred that only two of ten genera have distinct niche spaces; however, the application of machine learning-based random forest models suggests genus-specific variation in the relevance of abiotic environmental variables used to predict jellyfish occurrence. Our approach to incorporating reports from the literature with iNaturalist data helped evaluate the quality of the models and, more importantly, the quality of the underlying data. We find that free, accessible online data is valuable, yet subject to biases through limited taxonomic, geographic, and environmental resolution. To improve data resolution, and in turn its informative power, we recommend increasing global participation through collaboration with experts, public figures, and hobbyists in underrepresented regions capable of implementing regionally coordinated projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific‐based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation‐by‐environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the climatically suitable habitat of species plays a vital role in the sustainable use and management of target species. Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., a native shrub species found in desert areas of Central Asia, is generally considered as one of the top four tree species for desertification control. However, previous works on suitable habitat simulation had focused mainly on either the national or specific geographical scales rather than entire biota scales, which have underestimated the climatic tolerance of the species. Furthermore, the uncertainty outcomes of climate change were largely ignored. With these questions, the arid regions of Central Asia were selected as our research background area. Occurrence data of C. mongolicum were obtained from various sources, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, and the iPlant website. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the suitable habitat change dynamics under various climate change scenarios [5 general circulation models (GCMs) × 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)]. The uncertainty of climate change induced by GCMs and SSPs were decomposed by the two-way ANOVA method. Our results show that hydrological-related variables are more important for the species' habitat suitability than thermal-related variables. The climatic threshold for the core suitable habitat was 1–30 mm for precipitation of the coldest quarter, 14–401 mm for annual precipitation, −16.01–12.42 °C for mean temperature of the driest quarter, 9.48–32.63 °C for mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and −25.01–−9.77 °C for the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The size of suitable habitat was about 287.4 × 104 km2 under the current climate condition, located in China and Mongolia. Climate change has less impact on the total area size, but it has bigger impacts on the gain area and loss area sizes. The loss area is mainly located in the southeast boundaries, whereas the gain area is mainly located in Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The decomposition uncertainty of climate change indicates that GCMs could explain 14.5%, 66.4%, and 97.0% of total variation, respectively, and SSPs could explain 85.5%, 33.6%, and 3.0% of the total variation for gain, loss, and total habitat sizes, respectively. Our work clearly demonstrates that while C. mongolicum has great planting potential in Central Asia under various climate change scenarios, the sensitive areas possess large uncertainties requiring long-term climate monitoring for afforestation projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stictococcus vayssierei is a major pest of root and tuber crops in central Africa. However, data on its ecology are lacking. Here we provide an updated estimate of its distribution with the aim of facilitating the sustainable control of its populations. Surveys conducted in nine countries encompassing 13 ecological regions around the Congo basin showed that African root and tuber scale was present in Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Uganda. It was not found on the sites surveyed in Chad and Nigeria. The pest occurred in the forest and the forest-savannah mosaic as well as in the savannah where it was never recorded before. However, prevalence was higher in the forest (43.1%) where cassava was the most infested crop, compared to the savannah (9.2%) where aroids (cocoyam and taro) were the most infested crops. In the forest habitat, the pest was prevalent in all but two ecological regions: the Congolian swamp forests and the Southern Congolian forest-savanna mosaic. In the savannah habitat, it was restricted to the moist savannah highlands and absent from dry savannahs. The scale was not observed below 277 m asl. Where present, the scale was frequently (87.1% of the sites) attended by the ant Anoplolepis tenella. High densities (>1000 scales per plant) were recorded along the Cameroon-Gabon border. Good regulatory measures within and between countries are required to control the exchange of plant materials and limit its spread. The study provides information for niche modeling and risk mapping.

The Irukandji jellyfish (Carukia barnesi) is a medically important species. While the medusa stage of this species is well known, due to its highly venomous sting, the benthic polyp has core roles in regulating both the timing and abundance of medusa making it a research priority. However, due to their small size, Carukia barnesi polyps have never been found in situ and, basic ecological knowledge surrounding this life stage is limited. In this study we adopt a lab-based approach, utilizing physiological tolerance as a functional tool, to gain new insights into the in situ location for Carukia barnesi polyps. The physiological tolerance of Carukia barnesi polyps was characterized by measuring the oxygen consumption rates of polyps exposed to different salinity/temperature combinations. A total of nine salinities and seven temperatures were investigated, ranging from 11 °C/16‰ to 34 °C/42.5‰, encompassing the spectrum of environments experienced on the Great Barrier Reef. Polyps were also monitored for morphological changes such as asexual reproduction, polyp deterioration, and mortality. Salinity did not have a significant effect on oxygen consumption rates, with Carukia barnesi polyps displaying a significant tolerance to a wide range of salinities. The effect of temperature, however, was statistically significant with oxygen °consumption rates increasing alongside water temperature. There was no statistical evidence to support an interactive effect between salinity and temperature. Based on these results, we conclude that the polyp stage of this species is likely located in an environment with stable temperatures and fluctuating salinities and, consequently, future endeavors aimed at locating this life stage should expand targeted survey areas outside stable oceanic environments, typical of medusa, and encompass dynamic environments such as estuaries and submarine freshwater upwellings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Several large‐mammal species in Europe have recovered and recolonized parts of their historical ranges. Knowing where suitable habitat exists, and thus where range expansions are possible, is important for proactively promoting coexistence between people and large mammals in shared landscapes. We aimed to assess the opportunities and limitations for range expansions of Europe's two largest herbivores, the European bison (Bison bonasus) and moose (Alces alces). Location: Central Europe. Methods: We used large occurrence datasets from multiple populations and species distribution models to map environmentally suitable habitats for European bison and moose across Central Europe, and to assess human pressure inside the potential habitat. We then used circuit theory modeling to identify potential recolonization corridors. Results: We found widespread suitable habitats for both European bison (>120,000 km2) and moose (>244,000 km2), suggesting substantial potential for range expansions. However, much habitat was associated with high human pressure (37% and 43% for European bison and moose, respectively), particularly in the west of Central Europe. We identified a strong east–west gradient of decreasing connectivity, with major barriers likely limiting natural recolonization in many areas. Main conclusions: We identify major potential for restoring large herbivores and their functional roles in Europe's landscapes. However, we also highlight considerable challenges for conservation planning and wildlife management, including areas where recolonization likely leads to human–wildlife conflict and where barriers to movement prevent natural range expansion. Conservation measures restoring broad‐scale connectivity are needed in order to allow European bison and moose to recolonize their historical ranges. Finally, our analyses and maps indicate suitable but isolated habitat patches that are unlikely to be colonized but are candidate locations for reintroductions to establish reservoir populations. More generally, our work emphasizes that transboundary cooperation is needed for restoring large herbivores and their ecological roles, and to foster coexistence with people in Europe's landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the population history of wide-ranging species, especially those ranging over varying landscapes, helps in deciphering the evolutionary force (s) that shaped the present genetic diversity/structure of regional fauna. In the shelf region, evolution of coastal morphology through glacial oscillations played an important role in shaping the contemporary genetic structure of coastal marine organisms, although the type and extent of such influence may differ between ecologically dissimilar species, such as marine mammals vs. other marine vertebrates. We reconstructed the demographic trajectories of four populations of the finless porpoise (Neophocaena spp.), covering a wide latitudinal range in the western Pacific and using coalescent-based techniques. Subsequently, we compare the findings with the evolution of suitable ecological niche by reconstructing historic sea level fluctuations with a maximum entropy method. Our results indicate that the finless porpoise was distributed along the continental slope during the low stand of sea level, while the post-glacial marine transgression enabled the porpoise to re-colonize a vast region of the shelf, leading to the most recent expansion of the genus in east Asia. We underscore that inferences of past demographic events are sensitive to the evolutionary model of microsatellite loci and the proportion of multi-step mutation. For coastal cetaceans inhabiting complex coastal habitats, caution has to be exercised when examining demographic parameters to prevent biased inferences due to historic gene flow during marine transgression. Systematic sampling scheme should be encouraged for rigorous quantification of demographic parameters, which may be further applied to more adaptable methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species conservation plans frequently rely on information that spans political and administrative boundaries, especially when predictions are needed of future habitat under climate change; however, most species conservation plans and their requisite predictions of future habitat are often limited in geographical scope. Moreover, dispersal constraints for species of concern are not often incorporated into distribution models, which can result in overly optimistic predictions of future habitat. We used a standard modeling approach across a suite of 23 taxa of amphibians and reptiles in the North American deserts (560,024 km2 across 13 ecoregions) to assess impacts of climate change on habitat and combined landscape population dispersal simulations with species distribution modeling to reduce the risk of predicting future habitat in areas that are not available to species given their dispersal abilities. We used 3 general circulation models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to represent multiple scenarios of future habitat potential and assess which study species may be most vulnerable to changes forecasted under each climate scenario. Amphibians were the most vulnerable taxa, but the most vulnerable species tended to be those with the lowest dispersal ability rather than those with the most specialized niches. Under the most optimistic climate scenario considered (RCP 2.6; a stringent scenario requiring declining emissions from 2020 to near zero emissions by 2100), 76% of the study area may experience a loss of >20% of the species examined, while up to 87% of the species currently present may be lost in some areas under the most pessimistic climate scenario (RCP 8.5; a scenario wherein greenhouse gases continue to increase through 2100 based on trajectories from the mid‐century). Most areas with high losses were concentrated in the Arizona and New Mexico Plateau ecoregion, the Edwards Plateau in Texas, and the Southwestern Tablelands in New Mexico and Texas, USA. Under the most pessimistic climate scenario, all species are predicted to lose some existing habitat, with an average of 34% loss of extant habitat across all species. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we detected an average loss of 24% of extant habitat across all species, suggesting that changing climates may influence the ranges of reptiles and amphibians in the Southwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phylogeographic patterns of freshwater fishes in coastal regions are highly susceptible to eustatic sea level changes associated with Pleistocene glaciations. In this context, the Plain Coastal Gulf in northeastern Mexico represents an ideal study area due to its low elevation. Herein, we compare the phylogeographic structures of two cichlid species of the genus Herichthys Baird et Girard, 1854 widely distributed in the Pánuco-Tamesí system in northeastern Mexico using two mitochondrial markers. The species studied were: Herichthys carpintis (Jordan et Snyder, 1899) and Herichthys pantostictus (Taylor et Miller, 1983). We estimate their genetic diversity, gene flow, and demographic history and perform biogeographic reconstructions using a Bayesian computation approach and environmental niche modeling. The biogeographic reconstruction suggests a different history for each species. Environmental niche modeling indicates that both species experienced a demographic expansion during the Pleistocene but responded differently to Pleistocene climatic changes. In summary, their current sympatric distribution could be the outcome of contemporary and not historical processes reflecting a pseudo-incongruent pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction of organisms to new range may impose detrimental effects on local organisms, especially when closely related species are involved. Species delimitation employing an integrative taxonomy approach may provide a quick assessment for the species status between taxa of interest, and to infer ecological competition and/or introgression that may be associated with the introduction. A nymphalid butterfly, Symbrenthia lilaea lunica, was recently introduced to Taiwan, where a closely related local taxon, S. l. formosanus, can be found. We employed multiple species delimitation methods to study the species status between the two taxa, and the results revealed that they can be recognized as two distinct species, revised to S. l. lilaea (syn. nov.) and S. formosanus (stat. rev.) respectively. We further performed a niche modeling approach to investigate the ecological interaction between the two species. The taxonomic status of the two taxa, now elevated to species, has been revised and conservation facing rapid expansion of the introduced species discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]