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BackgroundMaternal solvent exposure has been suspected to increase offspring cancer risk. The study aimed to evaluate the associations between maternal residential exposure to solvents from industrial pollution during pregnancy and childhood cancer.MethodsThe present study included 15,744 cancer cases (aged 0-19 years at diagnosis) identified from California Cancer Registry and 283,141 controls randomly selected from California Birth Registry (20:1 frequency-matched by birth year: 1998-2016). We examined industrial releases of tetrachloroethylene and 1,1,1-trichloroethane within 3 km of the birth address, while we used a 5 km buffer for carbon disulfide. We calculated the total exposure from all linked Toxic Release Inventory sites during each index pregnancy and assigned "ever/never" and "high/low exposed/unexposed" exposure, using median values. We performed quadratic decay models to estimate cancer risks associated with maternal solvent exposure in pregnancy.Results1,1,1-Trichloroethane was associated with rhabdomyosarcoma (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 1.96; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.16, 3.32) in the "ever exposed" group. Ever exposure to carbon disulfide was associated with increased risks of medulloblastoma (OR = 1.85, 95% CI 1.01, 3.40) and ependymoma (OR = 1.63, 95% CI 0.97, 2.74).ConclusionsOverall, our findings suggested maternal residential exposure to solvents from industrial sources might be associated with elevated childhood cancer risks.

Previous research has found that milk is associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is unclear whether the milk digestion by the enzyme lactase-phlorizin hydrolase (LPH) plays a role in CRC susceptibility. Our study aims to investigate the direct causal relationship of CRC risk with LPH levels by applying a two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) strategy. Genetic instruments for LPH were derived from the Fenland Study, and CRC-associated summary statistics for these instruments were extracted from the FinnGen Study, PLCO Atlas Project, and Pan-UK Biobank. Primary MR analyses focused on a cis-variant (rs4988235) for LPH levels, with results integrated via meta-analysis. MR analyses using all variants were also undertaken. This analytical approach was further extended to assess CRC subtypes (colon and rectal). Meta-analysis across the three datasets illustrated an inverse association between genetically predicted LPH levels and CRC risk (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.95]). Subtype analyses revealed associations of elevated LPH levels with reduced risks for both colon (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.89-0.96]) and rectal cancer (OR: 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87, 0.98]). Consistency was observed across varied analytical methods and datasets. Further exploration is warranted to unveil the underlying mechanisms and validate LPHs potential role in CRC prevention.

Body mass index is a widely used but poor predictor of adiposity in populations with excessive fat-free mass. Rigorous predictive models validated specifically in a nationally representative sample of the US population and that could be used for calibration purposes are needed. The objective of this study was to develop and validate prediction equations of body fat percentage obtained from Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry using body mass index (BMI) and socio-demographics. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data from 5931 and 2340 adults aged 20 to 69 in 1999-2002 and 2003-2006, respectively. A supervised machine learning using ordinary least squares and a validation set approach were used to develop and select best models based on R2 and root mean square error. We compared our findings with other published models and utilized our best models to assess the amount of bias in the association between predicted body fat and elevated low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Three models included BMI, BMI2, age, gender, education, income, and interaction terms and produced R-squared values of 0.87 and yielded the smallest standard errors of estimation. The amount of bias in the association between predicted BF% and elevated LDL from our best model was -0.005. Our models provided strong predictive abilities and low bias compared to most published models. Its strengths rely on its simplicity and its ease of use in low-resource settings.

BACKGROUND: Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in South Africa are at a higher risk of acquiring HIV. Despite the increasing availability of daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention, knowledge on PrEP use during pregnancy and postpartum periods at antenatal care (ANC) facilities remains inadequate. METHODS: Data from HIV-uninfected pregnant women in Cape Town, South Africa, were used in this study. These women aged 16-24 years were enrolled in the PrEP in pregnancy and postpartum (PrEP-PP) cohort study during their first ANC visit. Using the PrEP cascade framework, the outcomes of the study were PrEP initiation (prescribed tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine at baseline), continuation (returned for prescription), and persistence [quantifiable tenofovir diphosphate (TFV-DP) in dried blood samples]. The two primary exposures of this study were risk perception for HIV and baseline HIV risk score (0-5), which comprised condomless sex, more than one sexual partner, partner living with HIV or with unknown serostatus, laboratory-confirmed sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and hazardous alcohol use before pregnancy (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for Consumption score ≥ 3). Logistic regression was used to examine the association between HIV risk and PrEP, adjusting for a priori confounders. RESULTS: A total of 486 pregnant women were included in the study, of which 16% were adolescents (aged 16-18 years) and 84% were young women (aged 19-24 years). The adolescents initiated ANC later than the young women [median = 28 weeks (20-34) vs. 23 weeks (16-34), p = 0.04]. Approximately 41% of the AGYW were diagnosed with sexually transmitted infection at baseline. Overall, 83% of the AGYW initiated PrEP use during their first ANC. The percentage of PrEP continuation was 63% at 1 month, 54% at 3 months, and 39% at 6 months. Approximately 27% consistently continued PrEP use through 6 months, while 6% stopped and restarted on PrEP use at 6 months. With a higher risk score of HIV (≥2 vs. ≤1), the AGYW showed higher odds of PrEP continuation [adjusted odds ratio: 1.85 (95% CI: 1.12-3.03)] through 6 months, adjusting for potential confounders. Undergoing the postpartum period (vs. pregnant) and having lower sexual risk factors were found to be the barriers to PrEP continuation. TFV-DP concentration levels were detected among 49% of the AGYW, and 6% of these women had daily adherence to PrEP at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: AGYW were found to have high oral PrEP initiation, but just over one-third of these women continued PrEP use through 6 months. Pregnant AGYW who had a higher risk of acquiring HIV (due to condomless sex, frequent sex, and STIs) were more likely to continue on PrEP use through the postpartum period. Pregnant and postpartum AGYW require counseling and other types of support, such as community delivery and peer support to improve their effective PrEP use through the postpartum period. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03826199.

BackgroundU.S. school closures due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to extended periods of remote learning and social and economic impact on families. Uncertainty about virus dynamics made it difficult for school districts to develop mitigation plans that all stakeholders consider to be safe.MethodsWe developed an agent-based model of infection dynamics and preventive mitigation designed as a conceptual tool to give school districts basic insights into their options, and to provide optimal flexibility and computational ease as COVID-19 science rapidly evolved early in the pandemic. Elements included distancing, health behaviors, surveillance and symptomatic testing, daily symptom and exposure screening, quarantine policies, and vaccination. Model elements were designed to be updated as the pandemic and scientific knowledge evolve. An online interface enables school districts and their implementation partners to explore the effects of interventions on outcomes of interest to states and localities, under a variety of plausible epidemiological and policy assumptions.ResultsThe model shows infection dynamics that school districts should consider. For example, under default assumptions, secondary infection rates and school attendance are substantially affected by surveillance testing protocols, vaccination rates, class sizes, and effectiveness of safety education.ConclusionsOur model helps policymakers consider how mitigation options and the dynamics of school infection risks affect outcomes of interest. The model was designed in a period of considerable uncertainty and rapidly evolving science. It had practical use early in the pandemic to surface dynamics for school districts and to enable manipulation of parameters as well as rapid update in response to changes in epidemiological conditions and scientific information about COVID-19 transmission dynamics, testing and vaccination resources, and reliability of mitigation strategies.

BACKGROUND: The complex multifactorial nature of childhood obesity makes community interventions difficult to evaluate using traditional approaches; innovative methods are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of various interventions targeting childhood obesity-related behaviours, and classified as using a micro-level (e.g., home visitation programs) or macro-level (e.g., business practices) strategy, on obesity among children enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). METHODS: We simulated a population of 1500 children enrolled in WIC, with specific diet, physical activity, breastfeeding behaviours and body mass index z-scores (BMIz), following them from age 2 to 5 years. RESULTS: Combined interventions targeting breastfeeding appeared to be moderately effective, reducing BMIz by 0.03 (95% CI -005, -0.01). Two strategy-specific interventions, home visitation programs and business practices targeting obesity-related behaviours, appeared to be moderately effective at reducing BMIz by 0.04 (95% CI -0.06, -0.02) and 0.02 (95% CI -0.04, 0.00), respectively. Contrary to expectation, combining all micro and macro interventions appeared to have no impact or moderately increased the proportion of obesity/overweight among children. CONCLUSION: Interventions targeting breastfeeding behaviour were most effective when both micro and macro strategies were implemented. Interventions targeting obesity-related behaviours in general were effective for two strategies, home visitation and business practices.

BackgroundWe recently estimated that 36.9% of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cases in the US may be attributable to modifiable risk factors, but it is not known whether national estimates generalize to specific states or regions.ObjectiveTo compare national estimates of modifiable risk factors of ADRD to California, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity, and to estimate number of cases potentially preventable by reducing the prevalence of key risk factors by 25%.MethodsAdults ≥18 years who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey in California (n = 9,836) and the US (n = 378,615). We calculated population attributable risks (PARs) for eight risk factors (physical inactivity, current smoking, depression, low education, diabetes mellitus, midlife obesity, midlife hypertension, and hearing loss) and compared estimates in California and the U.S.ResultsIn California, overall, 28.9% of ADRD cases were potentially attributable to the combination of risk factors, compared to 36.9% in the U.S. The top three risk factors were the same in California and the U.S., although their relative importance differed (low education [CA:14.9%; U.S.:11.7% ], midlife obesity [CA:14.9%; U.S.:17.7% ], and physical inactivity [CA:10.3%; U.S.:11.8% ]). The number of ADRD cases attributable to the combined risk factors was 199,246 in California and 2,287,683 in the U.S. If the combined risk factors were reduced by 25%, we could potentially prevent more than 40,000 cases in California and 445,000 cases in the U.S.ConclusionOur findings highlight the importance of examining risk factors of ADRD regionally, and within sex and race/ethnic groups to tailor dementia risk reduction strategies.

BackgroundHypertension is an urgent public health problem. Consistent summary from natural and quasi-experiments employed to evaluate interventions that aim at preventing or controlling hypertension is lacking in the current literature. This study aims to summarize the evidence from natural and quasi-experiments that evaluated interventions used to prevent or control hypertension.MethodsWe searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science for natural and quasi-experiments evaluating interventions used to prevent hypertension, improve blood pressure control or reduce blood pressure levels from January 2008 to November 2018. Descriptions of studies and interventions were systematically summarized, and a meta-analysis was conducted.ResultsThirty studies were identified, and all used quasi-experimental designs including a difference-in-difference, a pre-post with a control group or a propensity score matching design. Education and counseling on lifestyle modifications such as promoting physical activity (PA), promoting a healthy diet and smoking cessation consultations could help prevent hypertension in healthy people. The use of computerized clinical practice guidelines by general practitioners, education and management of hypertension, the screening for cardiovascular disease (CVD) goals and referral could help improve hypertension control in patients with hypertension. The educating and counseling on PA and diet, the monitoring of patients' metabolic factors and chronic diseases, the combination of education on lifestyles with management of hypertension, the screening for economic risk factors, medical needs, and CVD risk factors and referral all could help reduce blood pressure. In the meta-analysis, the largest reduction in blood pressure was seen for interventions which combined education, counseling and management strategies: weighted mean difference in systolic blood pressure was - 5.34 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], - 7.35 to - 3.33) and in diastolic blood pressure was - 3.23 mmHg (95% CI, - 5.51 to - 0.96).ConclusionsInterventions that used education and counseling strategies; those that used management strategies; those that used combined education, counseling and management strategies and those that used screening and referral strategies were beneficial in preventing, controlling hypertension and reducing blood pressure levels. The combination of education, counseling and management strategies appeared to be the most beneficial intervention to reduce blood pressure levels.

BackgroundObesity is a major public health problem affecting millions of Americans and is considered one of the most potent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Assessing future disease burden is important for informing policy-decision making for population health and healthcare.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to develop a computer model of a cohort of children born in Los Angeles County to study the life course incidence and trends of obesity and its effect on type 2 diabetes mellitus.MethodsWe built the Virtual Los Angeles cohort-ViLA, an agent-based model calibrated to the population of Los Angeles County. In particular, we developed the ViLA-Obesity model, a simulation suite within our ViLA platform that integrated trends in the causes and consequences of obesity, focusing on diabetes as a key obesity consequence during the life course. Each agent within the model exhibited obesity- and diabetes-related healthy and unhealthy behaviors such as sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, fast-food consumption, fresh fruits, and vegetable consumption. In addition, agents could gain or lose weight and develop type 2 diabetes mellitus with a certain probability dependent on the agent's socio-demographics, past behaviors and past weight or type 2 diabetes status. We simulated 98,230 inhabitants from birth to age 65 years, living in 235 neighborhoods.ResultsThe age-specific incidence of obesity generally increased from 10 to 30% across the life span with two notable peaks at age 6-12 and 30-39 years, while that of type 2 diabetes mellitus generally increased from

Background"Cest la Vie!" (CLV) is a serial drama that entertains, educates, and promotes positive health behaviors and social change for West African audiences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if watching the CLV Season 2 series online had an impact on people's health knowledge, attitudes, and norms, focusing on populations in francophone West Africa.MethodsBetween July 2019 and October 2019, viewers of CLV and non-viewers were recruited from Facebook and YouTube. We conducted an online longitudinal cohort study that assessed changes in health knowledge, attitudes, and norms (KAN) between these groups. Participants completed a baseline survey prior to the online airing and up to three follow-up surveys corresponding to specific health stories in the series, including sexual violence, emergency contraception, and female circumcision. We used descriptive statistics to describe viewers and non-viewers, and an item response theory (IRT) analysis to identify the effect of viewing CLV on overall KAN.ResultsA total of 1674 respondents participated in the study. One in four participants (23%, n = 388) had seen one of the three storylines from CLV Season 2 (ie, CLV viewers). At follow-up, viewers were more likely than non-viewers to know when to correctly use emergency contraception (P

PurposeDiabetes and depression are risk factors for cardiovascular disease, but the evidence about their interaction effect on long-term health outcomes among Latinos is lacking. We aimed to investigate the joint association of diabetes and subsequent depressive symptoms with mortality among older Latinos, an understudied racial/ethnic group with high prevalence of diabetes.MethodsThis study included 1,495 adults from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging. We employed Cox proportional-hazards models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality according to diabetes status at enrollment and depressive symptoms a year after the enrollment. We used marginal structural models to adjust for time-varying confounders.ResultsThe mean age (standard deviation) of participants was 70 (6.6) years. Over follow-up (median 7.7 years), diabetes and depressive symptoms were individually associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (diabetes, aHR[95% CI]=2.13[1.60-2.84]; depressive symptoms, aHR[95% CI]=1.62[1.09-2.39]) and all-cause mortality (diabetes, aHR[95% CI]=1.92[1.53-2.41]; depressive symptoms, aHR[95% CI]=1.41[1.02-1.94]). After adjusting for time-varying confounders, we found a multiplicative interaction between diabetes and subsequent depressive symptoms for cardiovascular mortality (aHR[95% CI]=2.94[1.07-8.39]), but not all-cause mortality (aHR[95% CI]=1.80[0.81-4.35]).ConclusionsUsing a longitudinal cohort of community-dwelling older Latinos, we found that diabetes and subsequent depressive symptoms were jointly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality.

IntroductionPooled testing is a potentially efficient alternative strategy for COVID-19 testing in congregate settings. We evaluated the utility and cost-savings of pooled testing based on imperfect test performance and potential dilution effect due to pooling and created a practical calculator for online use.MethodsWe developed a 2-stage pooled testing model accounting for dilution. The model was applied to hypothetical scenarios of 100 specimens collected during a one-week time-horizon cycle for varying levels of COVID-19 prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity, and to 338 skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) in Los Angeles County (Los Angeles) (data collected and analyzed in 2020).ResultsOptimal pool sizes ranged from 1 to 12 in instances where there is a least one case in the batch of specimens. 40% of Los Angeles SNFs had more than one case triggering a response-testing strategy. The median number (minimum; maximum) of tests performed per facility were 56 (14; 356) for a pool size of 4, 64 (13; 429) for a pool size of 10, and 52 (11; 352) for an optimal pool size strategy among response-testing facilities. The median costs of tests in response-testing facilities were $8250 ($1100; $46,100), $6000 ($1340; $37,700), $6820 ($1260; $43,540), and $5960 ($1100; $37,380) when adopting individual testing, a pooled testing strategy using pool sizes of 4, 10, and optimal pool size, respectively.ConclusionsPooled testing is an efficient strategy for congregate settings with a low prevalence of COVID-19. Dilution as a result of pooling can lead to erroneous false-negative results.

ObjectiveIt is unclear whether relatively low glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels are beneficial or harmful for the long-term health outcomes among people without diabetes. We aimed to investigate the association between low HbA1c levels and mortality among the US general population.MethodsThis study includes a nationally representative sample of 39 453 US adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 1999-2014, linked to mortality data through 2015. We employed the parametric g-formula with pooled logistic regression models and the ensemble machine learning algorithms to estimate the time-varying risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by HbA1c categories (low, 4.0 to

In order to develop effective public health initiatives aimed at promoting healthy weight development, identifying the interventions/combination of interventions with the highest beneficial effect on body weight is vital. The study aimed to estimate the mean BMI at age 13 under hypothetical interventions targeting dietary behavior, physical activity and screen time at age 11. We used data from a school-based cohort study of 530 participants followed between the ages of 11 and 13. We used g-computation, a causal modeling method, to estimate the impact of single and combined hypothetical behavioral interventions at age 11 on BMI at age 13. Of the hypothetical interventions, the one with the largest population mean difference in BMI was the one combining all interventions (dietary behavior, physical activity and screen time interventions) and assuming 100% intervention adherence, with a population mean differences of - 0.28 (95% CI - 0.59, 0.07). Isolated behavioral interventions had a limited impact on BMI. This study demonstrated that a combination of healthy dietary behavior and physical activity promotion, as well as screen time reduction interventions at age 11 could have the highest beneficial effect on the reduction of BMI at age 13, although the change in BMI was small. The findings highlight the importance of a systems approach to obesity prevention focusing on multicomponent interventions.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: This study provides public health and K-12 school districts with a pragmatic, flexible, adaptable model showing COVID-19 transmission dynamics, using local data and program elements that are modifiable and with an online model for easy use, to enable safe and equitable re-opening and maintenance of in-person learning. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: School closures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic disrupt student education and health and exacerbate inequities. Public health agencies and school districts currently lack pragmatic models to assess the effects of potential strategies for resuming and maintaining in-person learning on outcomes such as transmission and attendance. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This study explored how various combinations of transmission-mitigating interventions affect health and learning outcomes in a range of underlying epidemiological conditions. The CTSA science team developed a conceptual framework and an agent-based simulation model with parameters including prevalence, transmission, testing, preventive and responsive actions, infection control, population behavior and awareness, and the potential impact of vaccine adoption and exemption policies. The team partnered with a large school district to ensure relevance of the program components to decision-making. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The model shows that no single program element or condition ensures safety. Combining interventions can result in synergy in the mitigation efforts. Even without testing, an efficient health screening process with forthcoming risk reporting, combined with on-campus infection control, can reduce on-campus transmission. The resulting model is accessible online to enable exploration of likely scenarios. It is adaptable as COVID-19 science evolves, including for testing and vaccines. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: This research provides public health agencies and school districts with a model that couples local conditions with programmatic elements to help inform the local COVID-19 response, recognizing that decisions about the school community are often complex politically, technically, and operationally when it comes to addressing a health crisis.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: The mobilization of a CTSA-sponsored team with multi-disciplinary translational science expertise enabled the university to provide a range of T1-T4 expertise to a large, complex school district that resulted in permanent learning and data science infrastructure. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The Clinical Translational Science Institute (CTSI) formed a multidisciplinary science team to provide expertise in support of the re-opening of in-person learning in the second-largest U.S. school district during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The assembled interdisciplinary science team provided expertise in epidemiology, machine learning, causal inference and agent-based modeling, data and improvement science, biostatistics, clinical and laboratory medicine, health education, community engagement, and experience in outbreak investigation and management. The team included TL1 pre and postdoctoral fellows and mobilized scientists from multiple professional schools and T1-T4 stages of translational research. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Tangible outcomes achieved using this team approach included the development of practical metrics for use in the school community, a learning process, the integration of preventive design elements into a testing and tracing program, and targeted and data-driven health education. The team, for example, generated new data displays for community engagement and collaborated with the school district in their use to visualize, learn from, and act on variation across a 700 square mile region. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Novel translational methods can be used to establish a learning environment and data science infrastructure that complements efforts of public health agencies to aid schools in the COVID-19 pandemic. These new capabilities apply to COVID-19 testing and vaccines and can be mobilized for future population health challenges faced by school districts.

BACKGROUND:The contribution of childhood obesity to adult type 2 diabetes (T2DM), not through adult adiposity, as well as the causal pathways through which childhood obesity increases adult T2DM risk are not well understood. This study investigated the contribution of childhood obesity to incident T2DM including pathways not through adult adiposity, and explored whether race modified this contribution. METHODS:We used data from the Virtual Los Angeles Cohort, an agent-based longitudinal birth cohort composed of 98,230 simulated individuals born in 2009 and followed until age 65 years. We applied the parametric mediational g-formula to the causal mediation analysis investigating the impact of childhood obesity on the development of adult T2DM. RESULTS:The marginal adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for the total effect of childhood obesity on adult T2DM was 1.37 (95% CI = 1.32, 1.46). Nearly all the effect of childhood obesity on adult T2DM was mostly attributable to pathways other than through adult obesity; the aOR for the pure direct effect was 1.36 (95% CI = 1.31, 1.41). In all racial subpopulations, a similar 3% of the total effect of childhood obesity on adult T2DM was attributable to its effect on adult obesity. CONCLUSIONS:Childhood obesity remains a risk factor for adult T2DM separate from its effects on adult obesity. This study emphasizes the potential benefits of early interventions and illustrates that agent-based simulation models could serve as virtual laboratories for exploring mechanisms in obesity research.

There is growing evidence that prenatal participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) reduces the risk of adverse birth outcomes. With recent changes in health care, rising health care costs, and increasing rates of prematurity in the U.S., there is urgency to estimate the potential cost savings associated with prenatal WIC participation. A cost-benefit analysis from a societal perspective with a time horizon over the newborns life course for a hypothetical cohort of 500,000 Californian pregnant women was conducted in 2017. A universal coverage, a status quo (business as usual) and a reference scenario (absence of WIC) were compared. Total societal costs, incremental cost savings, return on investment, number of preterm births prevented, and incremental net monetary benefits were reported. WIC resulted in cost-savings of about $349 million and the prevention of 7575 preterm births and would save more if it were universal. Spending $1 on prenatal WIC resulted in mean savings of $2.48 (range: $1.24 to $6.83). Decreasing prenatal WIC enrollment by 10% would incur additional costs (i.e. loss) of about $45.3 million to treat the resulting 981 preterm babies. In contrast, a 10% increase in prenatal WIC enrollment would prevent 141 preterm births and achieve additional cost-savings of $6.5 million. The findings confirm evaluations from the early 1990s that prenatal WIC participation is cost-saving and cost-effective. Further savings could be achieved if all eligible women were enrolled in WIC. Substantial preterm birth-related costs would result from reductions in WIC participation.

There is growing evidence that prenatal participation in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) reduces the risk of adverse birth outcomes. With recent changes in health care, rising health care costs, and increasing rates of prematurity in the U.S., there is urgency to estimate the potential cost savings associated with prenatal WIC participation. A cost-benefit analysis from a societal perspective with a time horizon over the newborn's life course for a hypothetical cohort of 500,000 Californian pregnant women was conducted in 2017. A universal coverage, a status quo ('business as usual') and a reference scenario (absence of WIC) were compared. Total societal costs, incremental cost savings, return on investment, number of preterm births prevented, and incremental net monetary benefits were reported. WIC resulted in cost-savings of about $349 million and the prevention of 7575 preterm births and would save more if it were universal. Spending $1 on prenatal WIC resulted in mean savings of $2.48 (range: $1.24 to $6.83). Decreasing prenatal WIC enrollment by 10% would incur additional costs (i.e. loss) of about $45.3 million to treat the resulting 981 preterm babies. In contrast, a 10% increase in prenatal WIC enrollment would prevent 141 preterm births and achieve additional cost-savings of $6.5 million. The findings confirm evaluations from the early 1990s that prenatal WIC participation is cost-saving and cost-effective. Further savings could be achieved if all eligible women were enrolled in WIC. Substantial preterm birth-related costs would result from reductions in WIC participation.

Background: The mechanisms through which acculturation influences the onset of cognitive impairment and dementia are not well understood, especially among older Hispanics. Objective: To investigate whether inflammation and psycho-behavioral factors mediate the relationship between acculturation and incident dementia among older Mexican Americans. Methods: We analyzed the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (1998–2007, SALSA), a longitudinal study (N = 1,194) with 10 years of follow-up, and used g-computation for mediation analysis with pooled logistic regression to evaluate whether acculturation (assessed by the Revised Acculturation Rating Scale for Mexican Americans [ARSMA-II]) affected dementia or cognitive impairment but not dementia (CIND) through inflammation (i.e., interleukin 6 [IL-6], tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein [hs-CRP]), smoking, alcohol consumption, and depressive symptoms. The potential mediators were assessed at baseline. Results: The 10-year average adjusted risk ratio (aRR) for the effect of high U.S. acculturation and dementia/CIND was 0.66, 95% CI (0.36, 1.30). The indirect effects were: IL-6 (aRR = 0.98, 95% CI (0.88, 1.05)); TNF-α (aRR:0.99, 95% CI (0.93, 1.05)); hs-CRP: (aRR = 1.21, 95% CI (0.84, 1.95)); current smoking: aRR = 0.97, 95% CI (0.84, 1.16); daily/weekly alcohol consumption (aRR = 1.00, 95% CI (0.96, 1.05)); and depressive symptom score (aRR = 1.03, 95% CI (0.95, 1.26)). Hs-CRP yielded a proportion mediated of -26%, suggesting that hs-CRP could suppress the potential effect of high U.S. acculturation. The other factors explored resulted in little to no mediation. Conclusions: The effect of acculturation on time to incident dementia/CIND varied over time. Our study suggests that inflammation could suppress the effect between high U.S. acculturation and dementia risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between meal timing and type 2 diabetes risk in U.S. Hispanic/Latino adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) is a multicenter, community-based, prospective cohort study. This study included 8,868 HCHS/SOL adults without diabetes at baseline (2008–2011) and attending the visit 2 examination (2014–2017). Energy intake and glycemic load (GL) in each meal timing were assessed at baseline using two 24-h dietary recalls. Incident diabetes was identified through annual follow-up calls or at visit 2. Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident diabetes were estimated using Cox models, accounting for the complex survey design. RESULTS: The study population (50.9% female) had a baseline mean age of 39.0 (95% CI, 38.4–39.5) years. Over a median (range) follow-up of 5.8 (0.8–9.6) years, 1,262 incident diabetes cases were documented. Greater energy intake and GL in late morning (9:00–11:59 a.m.) were associated with a lower diabetes risk, whereas greater energy intake and GL in other meal timings were not. After accounting for diet quantity and quality, sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and chronic conditions, the HRs were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91–0.97) per 100-kcal energy intake increment and 0.93 (0.89–0.97) per 10-unit GL increment in late morning. Replacing energy intake or GL from early morning (6:00–8:59 a.m.), afternoon (12:00–5:59 p.m.), or evening (6:00–11:59 p.m.) with late-morning equivalents was associated with a comparably lower diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified late morning as a favorable meal timing in Hispanic/Latino adults, providing a novel perspective on type 2 diabetes prevention that warrants confirmation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundAverage treatment effects on the treated (ATT) and the untreated (ATU) are useful when there is interest in: the evaluation of the effects of treatments or interventions on those who received them, the presence of treatment heterogeneity, or the projection of potential outcomes in a target (sub-) population. In this paper we illustrate the steps for estimating ATT and ATU using g-computation implemented via Monte Carlo simulation.MethodsTo obtain marginal effect estimates for ATT and ATU we used a three-step approach: fitting a model for the outcome, generating potential outcome variables for ATT and ATU separately, and regressing each potential outcome variable on treatment intervention.ResultsThe estimates for ATT, ATU and average treatment effect (ATE) were of similar magnitude, with ATE being in between ATT and ATU as expected. In our illustrative example, the effect (risk difference [RD]) of a higher education on angina among the participants who indeed have at least a high school education (ATT) was -0.019 (95% CI: -0.040, -0.007) and that among those who have less than a high school education in India (ATU) was -0.012 (95% CI: -0.036, 0.010).ConclusionsThe g-computation algorithm is a powerful way of estimating standardized estimates like the ATT and ATU. Its use should be encouraged in modern epidemiologic teaching and practice.

BackgroundIt is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing early childhood obesity using randomized trials. Objective To illustrate how observational data can be analysed using causal inference methods to estimate the potential impact of behavioural 'interventions' on early childhood adiposity. Methods We used longitudinal data from 1054 children 1-5 years old enrolled in the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children and followed (WIC) from 2008 to 2010 for a mean duration of 23 months. The data came from a random sample of WIC families living in Los Angeles County in 2008. We used the parametric g-formula to estimate the impact of various hypothetical behavioural interventions. Results Adjusted mean weight-for-height Z score at the end of follow-up was 0.73 (95% CI 0.65, 0.81) under no intervention and 0.63 (95% CI 0.38, 0.87) for all interventions given jointly. Exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months or longer was the most effective intervention [population mean difference = -0.11 (95% CI -0.22, 0.01)]. Other interventions had little or no effect. Conclusions Compared with interventions promoting healthy eating and physical activity behaviours, breastfeeding was more effective in reducing obesity risk in children aged 1-5 years. When carefully applied, causal inference methods may offer viable alternatives to randomized trials in etiologic and evaluation research.

BackgroundAlthough obesity continues to rise and remains a great public health concern in the U.S., a number of important levers such as self-perception of weight and calorie postings at point-of-purchase in restaurants are still not well-characterized in the literature, especially for low-income and minority groups in Los Angeles County (LAC). To study this gap, we examined the associations of self-perception of weight (as measured by body weight discrepancy) with food choice intentions and consumer response to calorie information among low-income adults residing in LAC during the pre-menu labeling regulation era.MethodsDescriptive and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the aforementioned associations utilizing data from the 2007-2008 Calorie and Nutrition Information Survey (CNIS). The CNIS was a local health department study of 639 low-income adults recruited from five large, multi-purpose public health centers in LAC.ResultsSurvey participants who reported that their desired weight was less than their current weight (versus desired weight the same as current weight) had (i) higher odds of intending to select lower-calorie foods under the scenario that calorie information was available at point-of-purchase (aOR = 2.0; 95 % CI: 1.0-3.9); and (ii) had higher odds of reporting that it is "very important" to have these calorie postings on food items in grocery stores (aOR = 3.1; 95 % CI: 0.90-10.7) and in fast-food restaurants (aOR = 3.4; 95 % CI: 1.0-11.4).ConclusionsSelf-perception of weight was found to be associated with the intention to select lower-calorie foods under the scenario that calorie information was available at point-of-purchase. Future public health efforts to support menu labeling implementation should consider these and other findings to inform consumer education and communications strategies that can be tailored to assist restaurant patrons with this forthcoming federal law.

Peru is experiencing a concentrated HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM). Substance use (alcohol and drug use) has been found to be associated with HIV-related sexual risk behaviors. A recent surge in the number of social media users in Peru has enabled these technologies to be potential tools for reaching HIV at-risk individuals. This study sought to assess the relationship between substance use and sexual risk behaviors among Peruvian MSM who use social media. A total of 556 Peruvian MSM Facebook users (ages 18-59) were recruited to complete a 92-item survey on demographics, sexual risk behaviors, and substance use. We performed a logistic regression of various sexual risk behaviors (e.g., unprotected sex, casual sex) on substance abuse, including alcohol, adjusting for potential covariates. Drinking more than five alcoholic drinks a day in the past three months was associated with an increased odds of having unprotected sex (vaginal and anal) (aOR: 1.52; 95% CL: 1.01, 2.28), casual sex (1.75; 1.17, 2.62), and sex with unknown persons (1.82; 1.23, 2.71). Drug use was not significantly associated with sexual risk behaviors. Among Peruvian MSM social media users, findings suggest that alcohol use was associated with increased HIV-related sexual risk behaviors.

BackgroundSocial media technologies offer new approaches to HIV prevention and promotion of testing. We examined the efficacy of the Harnessing Online Peer Education (HOPE) social media intervention to increase HIV testing among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Peru.MethodsIn this cluster randomised controlled trial, Peruvian MSM from Greater Lima (including Callao) who had sex with a man in the past 12 months, were 18 years of age or older, were HIV negative or serostatus unknown, and had a Facebook account or were willing to create one (N=556) were randomly assigned (1:1) by concealed allocation to join intervention or control groups on Facebook for 12 weeks. For the intervention, Peruvian MSM were trained and assigned to be HIV prevention mentors (peer-leaders) to participants in Facebook groups. The interventions period lasted 12 weeks. Participants in control groups received an enhanced standard of care, including standard offline HIV prevention available in Peru and participation in Facebook groups (without peer leaders) that provided study updates and HIV testing information. After accepting a request to join the groups, continued participation was voluntary. Participants also completed questionnaires on HIV risk behaviours and social media use at baseline and 12 week follow-up. The primary outcome was the number of participants who received a free HIV test at a local community clinic. The facebook groups were analysed as clusters to account for intracluster correlations. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01701206.FindingsOf 49 peer-leaders recruited, 34 completed training and were assigned at random to the intervention Facebook groups. Between March 19, 2012, and June 11, 2012, and Sept 26, 2012, and Dec 19, 2012, 556 participants were randomly assigned to intervention groups (N=278) or control groups (N=278); we analyse data for 252 and 246. 43 participants (17%) in the intervention group and 16 (7%) in the control groups got tested for HIV (adjusted odds ratio 2·61, 95% CI 1·55–4·38). No adverse events were reported.InterpretationDevelopment of peer-mentored social media communities seemed to be an efficacious method to increase HIV testing among high-risk populations in Peru. Results suggest that the HOPE social media intervention could improve HIV testing rates among MSM in Peru.FundingNational Institute of Mental Health.

Background: Studies have suggested Medicaid expansion enacted in 2014 has resulted in a reduction in overall cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the United States. However, it is unknown whether Medicaid expansion has a similar effect across race-ethnicity and sex. We investigated the effect of Medicaid expansion on CVD mortality across race-ethnicity and sex. Methods: Data come from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system and the US Centers for Disease Control's Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, spanning the period 2000-2019. We used the generalized synthetic control method, a quasiexperimental approach, to estimate effects. Results: Medicaid expansion was associated with -5.36 (mean difference [MD], 95% confidence interval [CI] = -22.63, 11.91) CVD deaths per 100,000 persons per year among Blacks; -4.28 (MD, 95% CI = -30.08, 21.52) among Hispanics; -3.18 (MD, 95% CI = -8.30, 1.94) among Whites; -5.96 (MD, 95% CI = -15.42, 3.50) among men; and -3.34 (MD, 95% CI = -8.05, 1.37) among women. The difference in mean difference (DMD) between the effect of Medicaid expansion in Blacks compared with Whites was -2.18; (DMD, 95% CI = -20.20, 15.83); between that in Hispanics compared with Whites: -1.10; (DMD, 95% CI = -27.40, 25.20) and between that in women compared with men: 2.62; (DMD, 95% CI = -7.95, 13.19). Conclusions: Medicaid expansion was associated with a reduction in CVD mortality overall and in White, Black, Hispanic, male, and female subpopulations. Also, our study did not find any difference or disparity in the effect of Medicaid on CVD across race-ethnicity and sex-gender subpopulations, likely owing to imprecise estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Pertussis is a contagious respiratory disease. Maternal tetanus–diphtheria–acellular pertussis vaccination during pregnancy has been recommended by the United States Centres for Disease Control (US CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) for unvaccinated pregnant women since October 2011 to prevent infection among infants; in 2012, ACIP extended this recommendation to every pregnancy, regardless of previous vaccination status. The population-level effect of these recommendations on infant pertussis is unknown. This study aimed to examine the impact of the 2011/2012 ACIP pertussis recommendation on pertussis incidence and mortality among US infants. Methods We used monthly data on pertussis deaths among infants aged <1 year between January 2005 and December 2017 in the CDC Death Data and yearly infant pertussis incidence data from the CDC National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System to perform an interrupted time series analysis, accounting for the passage of the Affordable Care Act. Results This study included 156 months of data. A potential decline in trend in infant pertussis incidence was noted during the post-recommendations period. No appreciable differences in trend were found in population-level infant pertussis mortality after the guideline changes in both adjusted and unadjusted models. Results were similar for all mortality sensitivity analyses. Conclusions The 2011/2012 ACIP maternal pertussis vaccination recommendations were not associated with a population-level change in the trend in mortality, but were potentially associated with a decrease in incidence in the USA between 2005 and 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]