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Routine tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging of colorectal cancer is imperfect in predicting survival due to tumor pathobiological heterogeneity and imprecise assessment of tumor spread. We leveraged Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a statistical learning technique, to comprehensively analyze patient-specific tumor characteristics for the improvement of prognostic prediction. Of 75 clinicopathologic, immune, microbial, and genomic variables in 815 stage II–III patients within two U.S.-wide prospective cohort studies, the BART risk model identified seven stable survival predictors. Risk stratifications (low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) based on model-predicted survival were statistically significant (hazard ratios 0.19–0.45, vs. higher risk; P < 0.0001) and could be externally validated using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data (P = 0.0004). BART demonstrated model flexibility, interpretability, and comparable or superior performance to other machine-learning models. Integrated bioinformatic analyses using BART with tumor-specific factors can robustly stratify colorectal cancer patients into prognostic groups and be readily applied to clinical oncology practice.

Evidence indicates the pathogenic role of epigenetic alterations in early-onset colorectal cancers diagnosed before age 50. However, features of colorectal cancers diagnosed at age 50–54 (hereafter referred to as “intermediate-onset”) remain less known. We hypothesized that tumor long interspersed nucleotide element-1 (LINE-1) hypomethylation might be increasingly more common with decreasing age of colorectal cancer diagnosis. In 1356 colorectal cancers, including 28 early-onset and 66 intermediate-onset cases, the tumor LINE-1 methylation level measured by bisulfite-PCR-pyrosequencing (scaled 0 to 100) showed a mean of 63.6 (standard deviation (SD) 10.1). The mean tumor LINE-1 methylation level decreased with decreasing age (mean 64.7 (SD 10.4) in age ≥70, 62.8 (SD 9.4) in age 55–69, 61.0 (SD 10.2) in age 50–54, and 58.9 (SD 12.0) in age <50; p < 0.0001). In linear regression analysis, the multivariable-adjusted β coefficient (95% confidence interval (CI)) (vs. age ≥70) was −1.38 (−2.47 to −0.30) for age 55–69, −2.82 (−5.29 to −0.34) for age 50–54, and −4.54 (−8.24 to −0.85) for age <50 (Ptrend = 0.0003). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for LINE-1 methylation levels of ≤45, 45–55, and 55–65 (vs. >65) were 2.33 (1.49–3.64), 1.39 (1.05–1.85), and 1.29 (1.02–1.63), respectively (Ptrend = 0.0005). In conclusion, tumor LINE-1 hypomethylation is increasingly more common with decreasing age of colorectal cancer diagnosis, suggesting a role of global DNA hypomethylation in colorectal cancer arising in younger adults.