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We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self. organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested. Index Terms--Blackouts, complex systems, power system security, reliability, risk analysis, time series.

Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure, and blackouts of these systems have major consequences for the economy and national security. Analyses of blackout data suggest that blackout size distributions have a power law form over much of their range. This result is an indication that blackouts behave as a complex dynamical system. We use a simulation of an upgrading power transmission system to investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power law region. Thus, while the absolute frequency of blackouts of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large blackouts to small blackouts to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small blackouts can even increase the frequency of large blackouts. This result occurs because the large and small blackouts are not mutually independent, but are strongly coupled by the complex dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the specialized topics or series of articles that the "Computing in Science and Engineering" periodical will be publishing in its 2007 issues in observance of the International Polar Year (IPY). The objective is to educate the readers on polar research and issues related to IPY. The initial January/February issue tackles high-latitude remote sensing, while the issue thereafter will be on climate and glaciers.

Many complex infrastructure systems, such as electric power transmission grids, display characteristics of a critical or near critical behavior with a risk of large cascading failures. Understanding this risk and its relation to the system state as it evolves could allow for a more realistic risk assessment and even for mitigation measures. We use the OPA model of cascading blackouts and grid evolution to describe and quantify regimes of criticality of the power grid.

For a given minimum cost of the electricity dispatch, multiple equivalent dispatch solutions may exist. We explore the sensitivity of networks to these dispatch solutions and their impact on the vulnerability of the network to cascading failure blackouts. It is shown that, depending on the heterogeneity of the network structure, the blackout statistics can be sensitive to the dispatch solution chosen, with the clustering coefficient of the network being a key ingredient. We also investigate mechanisms or configurations that decrease discrepancies that can occur between the different dispatch solutions.

We give an overview of a complex systems approach to large blackouts of electric power transmission systems caused by cascading failure. Instead of looking at the details of particular blackouts, we study the statistics and dynamics of series of blackouts with approximate global models. Blackout data from several countries suggest that the frequency of large blackouts is governed by a power law. The power law makes the risk of large blackouts consequential and is consistent with the power system being a complex system designed and operated near a critical point. Power system overall loading or stress relative to operating limits is a key factor affecting the risk of cascading failure. Power system blackout models and abstract models of cascading failure show critical points with power law behavior as load is increased. To explain why the power system is operated near these critical points and inspired by concepts from self-organized criticality, we suggest that power system operating margins evolve slowly to near a critical point and confirm this idea using a power system model. The slow evolution of the power system is driven by a steady increase in electric loading, economic pressures to maximize the use of the grid, and the engineering responses to blackouts that upgrade the system. Mitigation of blackout risk should account for dynamical effects in complex self-organized critical systems. For example, some methods of suppressing small blackouts could ultimately increase the risk of large blackouts.