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This paper empirically examines the correlation between population growth and real interest rates. Although this correlation is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long‐term relationships across generations. Accordingly, key population trends appear often only across decades, if not centuries, worth of data. To capture these trends, we distinguish between population growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, we find robust evidence that the birth surplus is significantly correlated with the real interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is a concept having economic and social dimensions for many countries. Therefore, migration has important effects within the country as well as between countries. This study focused on internal migration, which is defined as the act of moving within the country for any reason. Income is first on the list when we talk about economic factors. Income inequality is the result of unequal distribution of income among a group of people in society. The major objective of this study is to determine the relationship between internal migration and income inequality in Turkey. The relationship between internal migration and income inequality was examined with logistic regression in line with the main purpose of study. Data for 2022 were used in the analysis, taking into account the TURKSTAT NUTS 2 (26 Regions) classification. According to the analysis results, it has been determined that income inequality increases the net migration rate. On the other hand, it has been found that employment and being a secondary school graduate have a reducing effect on the net migration rate. It has also been found that the relationship between labor force participation rate and average household size and internal migration is not statistically significant. The policies for reducing income inequality will have a reducing effect on internal migration. Likewise, increasing the level of education and employment will reduce internal migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the development of inequality in Germany from 1983 to 2020, focusing on labour market trends and income inequality. Using data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel, we show that one of the most important trends in the German labour market in recent decades has been the increasing participation of women in the labour market. In addition, we confirm previous findings that inequality in earnings and household disposable income increased from the 1990s to 2005. Since then, inequality has not increased further despite changes in the composition of the labour force that tend to increase inequality, such as increased assortative matching and high net migration rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population size modelling offers crucial insights into societal, economic, environmental, and public health dynamics, aiding in informed decision-making and sustainable development efforts. In the absence of suitable population models, complete enumeration (census) would be necessary to track population dynamics. A census may yield erroneous results due to undercounting, even though it is costly, time-consuming, and resource-intensive. A typical human population is susceptible to birth, death, immigration and emigration. Several authors have attempted to model population growth based on these characteristics except that most of them considered some but not all the above characteristics in their models. This study proposed a stochastic growth model to monitor the population dynamics considering; birth, death, immigration and emigration rates. Through the developed model, the expected size of the population and its variability over time was obtained. The study also derived the limiting distribution of the population size and specified its parameters. The long-run probability of zero offspring (probability of ultimate extinction) was also deduced. The results of the study indicates that the long-run probability of zero offspring of the Ghanaian population is approximately 0.21, the net migration and intrinsic growth rates per 1000 Ghanaian population are −0.544 and 22.458 with standard errors of 0.206 and 0.530 respectively. This indicates that although the average birth rate is higher than the average death rate in Ghana, the average emigration rate (rate at which individuals travel out of the population either by the land borders, sea or air ports) is relatively higher than the immigration rate (rate at which individuals come into the population either by the land borders, sea or air ports). The estimated population sizes were almost the same across all bootstrap samples. This indicates that the proposed model is stable. The study therefore recommends the use of the proposed stochastic population growth model to monitor any population that is susceptible to birth, death, immigration and emigration.

The aim of this study is to examine the population development in TRC1, TRC2 and TRC3 level-2 regions in the period from 2007 to 2023. In the study, TURKSTAT data and descriptive method were used. The crude birth and death rates, total fertility rate and net migration rate data, which affect population growth, were also examined. TRC1, TRC2 and TRC 3 level-2 regions are located in the Southeastern Anatolia (TRC) level-1 region. Today, although the net migration rate is negative in all three regions, the population is generally increasing. This is due to the relatively high total fertility rate. Between 2007 and 2023, the population growth rate was 29% in the TRC1 region, 35% in the TRC2 region and 27% in the TRC3 region. While the annual population growth rate took positive values in three regions in the 2007-2022 period, this value took a negative value in the TRC1 level-2 region between 2022 and 2023 as a result of the increase in migration due to the effect of the February 6 earthquake. In other words, the population of the TRC1 region decreased between 2022 and 2023. It is noteworthy that in all three level-2 regions, the crude birth rate, total fertility rate and natural population growth rate have gradually decreased in recent years. Considering the recent trend, population growth is expected to continue in all three regions in the coming years. However, considering the trend of factors affecting population growth in recent years, on the other hand, it is predicted that this rate will gradually decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 10 years, the ASEAN region has experienced robust economic growth, driven by several factors including increasing foreign investment, growing domestic consumption, and favorable demographics. Statistics show that migration of workers make up a significant portion of the labor force in the ASEAN region. Asia has a long history of international migration, but in recent years it has grown in scope, diversity, and significance. Several factors have contributed to ASEAN's economic development, including government initiatives to improve the business environment, investment in infrastructure, and efforts to promote trade and regional economic integration. Migration-development discourse and existing studies recognize the potential role of migrants in boosting economic situations. The average annual growth rate of ASEAN's GDP was around 5% between 2011 and 2019, with some countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines growing at a much faster pace. Despite comprising only about 1.5% of the global economy, there is no denying that the contribution of countries like Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand is still highly significant in the context of East Asia. The objective of this study is to describe the intricate relationship between migration and domestic development. This paper took notes on the changes in ASEAN nations' immigration policies over the past ten years and observed how these have affected the patterns of net migration and economic performance. Understanding the linkages between migration and economic performance becomes crucial for understanding how sustainable development, social harmony, and long-term prosperity is affected by human movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at finding out the important determinants of prevalence rate of COVID-19 in the Asian continent using spatial analysis. The impact of climatic, socioeconomic, demographic, and health status variables on the prevalence rate of COVID-19 is seen through various spatial models such as Spatial lag, Spatial error, Geographically Weighted regression model, and Multiscale Geographically Weighted regression model. The performance of the models is compared under different comparison criteria. It is found that among all, Multiscale Geographically Weighted regression model outperformed other competitive models. Findings also indicate that cardiovascular health, prevalence of smoking habit, human development index, and net migration rate played significant role in defining the prevalence rate of COVID-19 in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the patterns of inter-state migration (both inward and outward migration within the country) in India's northeast states of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. While most of the previous studies of population migration in India were related to international migration, this article focuses on the analysis of trends and spatial variation of inter-state inward and outward migration and associated rural-urban and male-female differentials in the region. The analysis is primarily based on the Census of India data for 2001 and 2011, because the 2021 Census has not been yet conducted in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the engagement of the Fijian diaspora by the government of Fiji, with a focus on national development plans and the contributions of the diaspora. It discusses the historical context of Fiji's society, including the arrival of Indian indentured laborers and the division of labor between indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians. The government's initiatives to engage the diaspora, such as tax concessions, dual citizenship, and voting rights, are highlighted. The document also provides a list of sources related to diaspora engagement and discusses the challenges and opportunities associated with engaging with diaspora communities in Fiji. [Extracted from the article]

The study was on Nigeria's CC, PGR, and economic growth (1986-2021). Secondary data collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, World Bank, WDI, and Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were analyzed using unit root test, Auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) for climate change since variables were of I(1) & I(0) as there was no co-integration. In contrast, the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used for population growth rate as variables were of I(1) and I(0), and there was co-integration. The GC test was adopted to determine the causal relationship among variables. The results showed that the coefficient values of lag one and two of LNRGDP had a significant relation with economic growth at both 10% and 1%, respectively, while lag three period of CAE was significant at a 5% level of probability. The study showed that birth growth rate and net migration positively and negatively impacted economic growth. It also showed unidirectional causality between crude death rate and economic growth and life expectancy at birth with economic growth. The study, therefore, recommends that the government invest in critical policies (real sectors of the economy) for economic growth and research the area of clean energy and eco-friendly approaches and population management with awareness campaigns that can ensure sustainable economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motives behind internal migration reported by internal migrants often differ from those assumed by standard economic and social theories. This research aims to narrow the gap between the stated motives and those suggested by human capital models. It relates the net migration rates by specific motives to socioeconomic and sociodemographic variables at the LAU 1 level in the period 1997–2021 in Slovakia. This research establishes that most of the stated motives behind internal migration (housing and family) differ from those assumed by human capital theories. This finding is valid for motives stated at the proximal level. The analysis of migration rates and housing supply indicates a substantial concentration of interdistrict migrants in suburban districts of affluent metropolitan regions. This finding resonates with assumptions on the latent importance of employment and income for internal migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration acts as a growth driver for urban agglomerations, posing a difficult methodological task of its statistical accounting as well as further assessment of migration's impact on the economy of agglomerations. The paper analyzes the contribution of migration to the change in population during the intercensal interval 2010-2021 in 20 urban agglomerations of Russia identified as promising centers of economic growth by the Russian Federation Government Decree "On Approval of the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025". The study showed that the most underestimated net migration rate was demonstrated by the agglomerations of Krasnodar, distantly followed by Krasnoyarsk and the capitals (Moscow and Saint Petersburg). The leader in terms of the absolute value of unrecorded migration is the Moscow agglomeration. In Nizhny Novgorod and Perm agglomerations, indirect assessment of net migration showed that migration balance was overestimated as per the registered migration data. The identified differences in the volume of net migration between the two sources indicate the unreliability of the data, thus questioning in some urban agglomerations the alignment of the demographic potential with economic development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent empirical research on internal migration has focused on the change in migration volume, before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, by the degree of urbanization. Less is known about the types of rural areas that are attracting internal migrants. This study aims to explore the changes in internal rural migration patterns in Serbia due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the types of rural settlements as places of destinations and types of urban settlements as places of the origin of migrants. Relying on the additionally processed official national annual statistical data for the period 2018–2021, we offer findings on the differences in volume and socio-demographic characteristics of migrants across six internal migration flows (from small towns, medium-sized towns, and large cities, to suburban and non-suburban rural settlements). The results reveal that the pandemic affected an increase of rural–rural migration as well as rural in-migration from mediumsized towns. We also find that after an initial drop in values for in- and out-migration rates in 2020, relocation intensity exceeded the pre-pandemic level in 2021, with a positive net migration rate for all age groups except 15–30. The unfavorable economic characteristics of rural in-migrants shifted slightly in pandemic years since the share of active and population with personal means rose in non-suburban settlements, while the percentage of dependent population decreased. The opposite holds for suburban settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on the study of the evolution of internal migratory exchanges between all administrative regions of the Algerian territory between the years 1987 and 2008. The objective of this article is to quantify the intensity and concentration of internal migratory flows, the spatial orientation of migrants, the regions of preference, as well as the efficiency of interregional migration in Algeria. For this, we used the net migration rate, the Gini Coefficient index, the preference index, as well as the regional and national efficiency index. In order to carry out this work, we have created the matrices of migratory flows between the nine Algerian administrative regions based on migration data, which is published by the national statistics office. The results obtained show that migrations took place from the South to the North, with a preference for the Capital region and that for the Eastern Highlands. In terms of the efficiency of migratory flows, the redistribution of the population is very low, which makes the regional imbalance persistent, unless the regional planning policy is modified by developing new plans and methods to reduce the interregional imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to unpack the nexus of development and demography controlling for three important variables to represent the meaning of development, that is, poverty rate, unemployment rate and human development index (HDI). Demographic variables are proxied with total fertility rate (TFR) and net migration rate (NMR). Design/methodology/approach: This research applies cluster analysis at the provincial level using INDO-DAPOER and 2015 Intercensal Population Survey data sets. Findings: Demographic and development status of Indonesian provinces can be classified into four clusters, and members of these clusters are mostly dissimilar with those of previous groupings on demographic dividends (Adioetomo, 2018). With only less than 50% matching rate, the author argues that there is no simple linear relationship between demographic and development variables. Research limitations/implications: The most recent data set on Population Census Year 2020 has not been made available at the time of the writing. Also sometimes known as unsupervised classification, cluster analysis is about finding groups in a set of objects characterised only by certain measurements; therefore, findings of this study need to be positioned solely within the context of development and demography. Practical implications: Taxonomy in this study offers a more nuanced and contextual understanding of the diverse challenges at the local and regional levels. Recommendations from this study lead to asymmetrical design in development policies and budget proportions at local levels. Social implications: It is expected that the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues. Originality/value: To the author's understanding, this paper is the first to discuss the impact of "demographic dividend" to economic development in Indonesia using the approach of cluster analysis. The expected contribution of this work is twofold: Firstly, the author would like to ignite a discourse on the nexus of development and demography using the most recent data set and cutting-edge method. Secondly, the findings are relevant to the input of policymaking process within the sphere of development and demography, especially for countries with significant size of populations and grappling with development issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Proceedings of the Faculty of Economics & Business in Zagreb / Zbornik Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Zagrebu is the property of Ekonomski Fakultet u Zagrebu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, the relationship between the net migration rate in Turkey between 2008-2019 and the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita was tested with the Spatial analysis method. Net migration is expressed as the difference between the migration received by a particular settlement and the migration given. The value obtained by dividing the net migration value by the mid-year population and multiplying by one hundred or a thousand is expressed as the net migration rate. The phenomenon of migration that takes place in a certain place is one of the factors affecting per capita income. Spatial Analysis, on the other hand, determines the interaction between variables between units that are geographically close to each other. In the results of working; Provinces with strong and weak spatial relationships between net migration rate and GDP data for the specified years for Turkey were identified. Spatial distribution maps were drawn, Moran I index results, low increasing positive autocorrelation was detected in GDP data for the determined years, while high positive decreasing autocorrelation was detected for net migration rate data. Then, with the LISA clustering maps, the relationship between the provinces was low, high, and unrelated clustered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to determine the impact of selective internal migration on regional economic growth in Mexico. The net skilled migration rate has no significant impact on growth. The net migration rate is positively correlated with economic growth, but has no effect when endogeneity is solved. Together, the results indicate that there is no significant and robust causal impact of migration on growth. These results sustain even when we consider the negative effect that population growth rate have on regional economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the present article is to draw up an analysis on the migratory dynamics of the population from the Apuseni Mountains in the Post-Socialist era. In order to accomplish this aim, we collected statistical data from two representative years, namely 1992 and 2011, which correspond to two censuses. The analysis was meant to reveal the evolution of the settlements (people who settled in the area) and of emigration, as registered in the two reference years and to identify the causes that determined the evolution of the emigration and immigration.

In the context of a secular decline in internal migration across more developed nations, this paper examines the degree of counterurbanisation in New South Wales – Australia's most populous state – for 2016-21, a period that included the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a nuanced demarcation of 'metropolitan' and 'non-metropolitan', the paper investigates how genuinely counter-urban and pro-rural these movements are. The paper also explores the role of rural amenity as a 'pull' factor on city populations, using the most influential elements of the rural environment that best predict in-, out-migration and net-migration flows as separate measures rather than combine them into an index of composite variables. The results suggest that counterurbanisation exists as a particular migration current in NSW, though the spatial patterning of in- and net migration rates suggests that exurbanisation and displaced urbanisation more accurately describe and explain the vast majority of moves. Relatively high in- and net migration rates recorded in the most remote local government areas also suggest an element of anti-urbanisation, perhaps in response to the COVID-19 public health measures. Spatial regression modelling of selected amenity indicators against in-, out- and net migration produced high coefficients (Spearman's rho) for the in- and out-migration models, while the net migration model registered coefficients about half the size of the other two models. Two indicators – median slope and tourism employment – were strong and statistically significant influences over the in- and net migration models, and in the direction hypothesised. These results suggest that counterurbanisation is substantially influenced by the presence of landscapes of varied relief and with some tourism attraction potential. • The spatial patterning of in- and net migration rates between the New South Wales metro region and non-metro regions suggest that exurbanisation and displaced urbanisation more accurately explain the vast majority of moves. • Relatively high in- and net migration rates recorded in the most remote local government areas of NSW also suggest an element of anti-urbanisation, perhaps in response to the COVID-19 public health measures. • Two indicators – median slope and tourism employment – had statistically significant influences over the in- and net migration models in spatial regression modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal migration is an essential part of regional population change. Driven by various determinants, internal migration has been unequal across time and space. Migration responses to the changes in societal circumstances make it relevant to investigate the spatial and temporal dimension of internal migration in Serbia before and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The research aims to identify to what extent and in what way the pandemic has changed the magnitude and geographical patterns of internal migration in Serbia. The study is based on additionally processed official statistics on internal migration for the period 2018--2020, from March to December for each year, at the municipal, district (oblast, plural--oblasti), and regional levels. These are aggregate administrative data on usual residence registration by month. The derived data on the net migration rate is cartographically presented using the classification method natural Breaks (Jenks). Spatial dependence was assessed applying the spatial autocorrelation method, based on the Local Moran statistic. The results revealed that the pandemic affected not only the volume of internal migration but also its spatial patterns. The findings present new insights on the role of internal migration in reallocation of population across Serbia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic while underlying the importance of further research to deepen the understanding of internal migration trends upon the COVID-19 outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial modeling of migration and the identification of the effective parameters are imperative for planning and managing demographic, economic, social, and environmental changes on various geographical scales. The recent climate change stressors as well as inequality in terms of education and life quality have triggered internal mass migrations in Iran, causing pressure on housing, the job market, and potential slums around large cities. This study proposes a new approach to modeling migration patterns in Iran based on multi‐criteria decision analysis. For this purpose, a total of 23 individual criteria embedded within four criteria groups (economic, socio‐cultural, welfare, and environmental) affecting national migration were used. The analytic hierarchy process was employed to determine weights for the input factors and the weighted linear combination (WLC) model was used for the integration of criteria, based on which maps of migration potential were produced. The model applied was evaluated based on the correlation coefficient between migration potential values obtained from the WLC model and the actual net migration rate. Among the input individual criteria, unemployment, higher education centers, number of physicians, and dust storms were found to influence national migration. Furthermore, our findings reveal that the potential for migration across Iranian provinces is heterogeneous, with the spatial potential for emigration being the highest and lowest in the border and central provinces, respectively. The correlation coefficient calculated between outputs from the WLC model and the net migration rate from 2011 to 2016, was.81, indicating the relatively high performance of the proposed model in producing a migration spatial potential map. Our proposed approach, along with the results achieved, can be useful to decision‐makers and planners in designing data‐driven policies against inequality‐ and climate‐induced stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Turkish Journal of Social Research / Turkiye Sosyal Arastirmalar Dergisi is the property of Turkish Journal of Social Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of West Pomeranian Review / Przegląd Zachodniopomorski is the property of University of Szczecin Press / Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecinskiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The migration of individuals from one place to another is based on numerous economic and socio-cultural reasons. In the context of these reasons, development differences between regions are also expected to affect migration. In this context, this study aims to investigate the net migration rates differences in Turkey on a provincial basis and to determine the factors affecting the net migration rates. For this purpose, the spatial pattern of the net migration rate was examined, and by reviewing the variables that are expected to be related to migration, the impacts of these variables on the net migration rate have been revealed. Thus, it was seen that as the population growth rate and the gross domestic product increase, the net migration rate increases; and as the population density increases, the net migration rate decreases, that is, the province becomes a province of emigration. Finding of the study shows that the net migration rate is influenced not only by the characteristics of a site but also by the net migration rates and characteristics of neighboring settlements. In fact, geography is an important factor that should be taken into consideration in the examination of the factors affecting the net migration rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the economic recovery after the 2007/2008 crisis, the aim of this paper is to offer a classification of the Andalusian municipalities based on their migratory balances corresponding to the 2014/2019 period. To achieve this goal, we have used the Residential Variations Statistic, calculating from it a total of 7 migratory balances - total, three referred to the age of the migrants, and another three referred to the origin / destination of migration). Data has been analyzed using firstly a factorial analysis, and secondly a cluster analysis, and a total of 8 clusters has been obtained. Adding the sign of net migration rate the number of categories rises to 16, whose spatial distribution is still showing a dichotomy between an emigrant interior and an immigrant coastline; however, the analysis of the clusters, based on the components that underlie them, makes it possible to identify groups characterized by residential migration, others by a labour one, and others by the migratory balances of people aged over 64 years, among others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies exploring the factors associated with the incidence of syphilis have mostly focused on individual-level factors. However, recent evidence has indicated that social-level factors, such as sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors, also affect the incidence of syphilis. Studies on the sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors associated with syphilis incidence are scarce, and they have rarely controlled for spatial effects, even though syphilis shows spatial autocorrelation. Methodology/Principal findings: Syphilis data from 21 cities in Guangdong province between 2005 and 2017 were provided by the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The incidence time series, incidence map, and space-time scanning data were used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution. The spatial panel data model was then applied to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors (population density, net migration rate, male:female ratio, and the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents), socioeconomic factors (gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of secondary/tertiary industry), and the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis after controlling for spatial effects. The incidence of syphilis increased slowly from 2005 (11.91 per 100,000) to 2011 (13.42 per 100,000) and then began to decrease, reaching 6.55 per 100,000 in 2017. High-risk clusters of syphilis tended to shift from developed areas to underdeveloped areas. An inverted U-shaped relationship was found between syphilis incidence and gross domestic product per capita. Moreover, syphilis incidence was significantly associated with population density (β = 2.844, P = 0.006), the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents (β = -0.095, P = 0.007), and the net migration rate (β = -0.219, P = 0.002). Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis first increase before decreasing as economic development increases further. These results emphasize the necessity to prevent syphilis in regions at the early stages of economic growth. Author summary: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection that continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. The primary and secondary stages of syphilis are the most transmissive stages in the entire process of the disease. We analyzed primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis data from 2005 to 2017 in Guangzhou, China, provided by the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The results showed that the annual incidence rates of P&S syphilis slightly increased from 2005 to 2011 and then began to decrease in 2017. Cases of P&S syphilis were spatially clustered. The high-risk syphilis clusters tended to shift from developed areas to underdeveloped areas. There may be an inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of economic development and the incidence of P&S syphilis, suggesting that the incidence of P&S syphilis first increased before decreasing as the level of economic development increased further. These results emphasize the necessity of preventing syphilis at locations in the early stage of economic growth. Investments in syphilis prevention education for people in regions at early development stages may mitigate the increasing cost of syphilis to future healthcare systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consistent data from the last two population censuses in the United Kingdom are utilised in this paper to compare migration intensity and impact between two 1‐year periods and to identify the scale and zonation effects on the selected migration indicators. The picture of change that emerges is one of declining migration intensities and a diminution in the distribution of migrants from urban to rural areas, with the exception of students and young workers whose net migration losses from rural areas are increasing and whose migration effectiveness is increasing. Scale effects are more apparent for migration intensity than effectiveness, the two components of the aggregate net migration rate, whereas zonation effects are relatively unimportant across scale for intensity but become more significant as zones become larger for effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural communities in Ghana, dependent on agriculture and lacking resources and infrastructure, are highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change. Internal migration is often considered as a strategy to mitigate local livelihood constraints. Understanding the challenges of rural communities requires knowledge of local conditions. As only few studies have mapped vulnerable areas in the context of migration in Ghana at a spatially explicit and nationwide level, this study provides a geodata-based examination of how rural areas in Ghana are vulnerable to multiple, co-occurring socio-economic and environmental factors influencing migration. A multifactorial and expert-based weighted overlay analysis was applied, integrating diverse data sources including climate, remote sensing, and recent census data from Ghana. Bivariate maps visualize vulnerable areas where a high impact of the factors coincides with a high rural population density. High levels of factor impact are observed in the northern regions and coastal areas of Ghana. Relatively low impact is found in more central parts of the country. The results align with current net migration rates, confirming the applicability of our method for assessing rural internal migration. This method enhances the understanding of migration dynamics in Ghana and emphasizes the role of spatial data in migration studies. • Spatial data is used to map vulnerability and assess rural migration in Ghana. • The study integrates expert-weighted socio-economic and environmental factors. • The results of the weighted overlay analysis are combined with rural population density. • High migration likelihood is found in vulnerable areas in northern and coastal regions. • The results largely align with current net migration rates, confirming the method's applicability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims at a comparative analysis of the migration process in Romania and the Republic of Moldova in the recent years. The research studies the influencing factors of the migration phenomenon in the two countries considered in the analysis, as well as its economic and social effects. Given that migration has profound implications for all economies, decision-makers should adopt a strategy in this area to limit the exodus of skilled labor force from those strategic economic branches as well as incentive policies that lead to the return of diaspora specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How we treat the people most in need of support is a good indicator of the state of our societies. But we lack empirical evidence on how political parties affect minimum income benefits. The classic partisan difference theory leads us to expect opposite effects of governing right and left parties on benefit levels. The analysis of 16 OECD countries over the period of 1990 to 2009 shows that this hypothesis must be rejected as – if anything – right and left parties are associated with cuts. The inconsistent party effects point towards 'new politics' of blame avoidance strategies. A novel approach in the field of minimum income benefits is the analysis of the context of partisanship: how do unions and migration alter governments' effects on benefits? The effect of migration on parties cannot be captured using the net migration rate; in the future we should look at how public opinion on migration influences policies. In line with the power resources approach, trade unions show a consistently strong association with higher benefits, but they cannot constrain right nor left parties in cutting benefits. The findings confirm that the politics of new social policies differ from the politics of old ones: (1) new politics are at work, (2) signs of negotiated retrenchment between unions and right governments are not robust and (3) no evidence of coalition building between left parties and unions was found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intellectual capital is a catalysator of the country's economic growth. The developed countries try to develop attractive conditions for highly qualified migrants to diffuse the knowledge and innovations. The authors provided the bibliometric analysis of the papers, which focused on the analysis of the migrant issues was done. For the bibliometric analysis, the metadata of 2 500 papers was selected from Scopus. The results showed that the numbers of Scopus documents on the allocated theme have increased for 2015 year. The most powerful investigations were provided by scientists from the USA, Canada, France, United Kingdom. The bibliometric analysis findings confirmed that the scientists allocated a vast range of the determinants that could stimulate or restrict the migrants in the country. Thus, the governance efficiency had the mediation role between the migration and innovation development of the country. In this case, the paper aims to check the hypothesis that the increasing (decreasing) level of country innovation development and government efficiency from year t - 1 to year t positively (negatively) affects net migration in year t + 1. The panel data for 2011-2018 was generated from IndexMundi, EU Data Portal, WorldBank. The object of the investigation was Bulgaria, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania. The dependent variables - net migration rate, the independent variables - World Government Indicators: Control of Corruption, Government Effectiveness, Political Stability, Rule of Law, Regulatory Quality, Voice and Accountability (for assessment of government efficiency), Innovation Index (for assessment of country's innovation development). In the paper, to check the hypothesis, the authors used the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square for homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The findings confirmed that innovation development and governance efficiency (Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Regulatory Quality, Voice and Accountability) had a statistically significant impact on the migration rate. The findings could be used to identify the strategic goals of innovation development to overcome the demographic issues and support the migration of the high qualified workforces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has expanded rapidly throughout the world. Thus, it is important to understand how global factors linked with the functioning of the Anthropocene are responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. We tested hypotheses that the number of COVID-19 cases, number of deaths and growth rate of recorded infections: (1) are positively associated with population density as well as (2) proportion of the human population living in urban areas as a proxies of interpersonal contact rate, (3) age of the population in a given country as an indication of that population's susceptibility to COVID-19; (4) net migration rate and (5) number of tourists as proxies of infection pressure, and negatively associated with (5) gross domestic product which is a proxy of health care quality. Data at the country level were compiled from publicly available databases and analysed with gradient boosting regression trees after controlling for confounding factors (e.g. geographic location). We found a positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases in a given country and gross domestic product, number of tourists, and geographic longitude. The number of deaths was positively associated with gross domestic product, number of tourists in a country, and geographic longitude. The effects of gross domestic product and number of tourists were non-linear, with clear thresholds above which the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased rapidly. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was positively linked to the number of tourists and gross domestic product. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was negatively associated with the mean age of the population and geographic longitude. Growth was slower in less urbanised countries. This study demonstrates that the characteristics of the human population and high mobility, but not population density, may help explain the global spread of the virus. In addition, geography, possibly via climate, may play a role in the pandemic. The unexpected positive and strong association between gross domestic product and number of cases, deaths, and growth rate suggests that COVID-19 may be a new civilisation disease affecting rich economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aging of European societies is reshaping their population pyramids. The increase in life expectancy and the decrease in the fertility rate lead to an increasing share of the elderly population. This leads to rising age-related expenditures, especially public pension expenditures to GDP. Consequently, economies are reforming their pension systems to make them more sustainable. Next to the aging-related challenges, the new EU members, eleven post-socialist economies: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia share a similar history of restructuring of their pension systems and establishment of a multi-pillar system. The objective of this article is to examine the similarities and differences between the pension systems of the selected post-transition economies of the European Union to establish the basis for further research, simulations, and assumptions on the impact of future pension reforms. For that purpose, we apply Ward's clustering methodology on three variable groups in three selected years: 1996, 2006, and 2016. The idea of clustering economies in three years with a 10-year gap is relevant since it reveals how the cluster structure is changing over time. Additionally, three periods represent three different phases in the pension systems' development. Three groups of variables were used for cluster analysis. First, pension systems' characteristics include average effective retirement age, pension expenditure, and replacement rate. Second, demographics encompass fertility rate, life expectancy at the age of 65, net migration rate, and old-age dependency ratio. Third, the macroeconomics and labour market variables refer to the GDP growth rate, real labour productivity, labour force participation rate, and the unemployment rate. Results of cluster analysis show that the composition of the countries in the extracted clusters changes significantly, both throughout the observed period and when looking at different variable groups. Our results revealed that the pension systems of economies with later retirement proved to be more sustainable, during the three observed periods, due to lower pension expenditures that are in turn positively reflected in the favourable economic conditions and their labour market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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What is the relationship between the first two trials of the Cashless Debit Card (CDC) and Indigenous mobility? In Ceduna, Vincent conducted ethnographic research into lived experiences of the first CDC trial. In the East Kimberley, Klein conducted 51 structured interviews with people on the card and 37 semi‐structured interviews with key informants. Markham used regression analysis of net migration rates at the Statistical Area 2 level to determine whether the CDC trial sites were associated with greater net population loss in 2016 census data than comparable locations. Our exploratory study finds significant local talk of displacement arising from the introduction of the CDC, as well as discussion of short‐term trips away from the trial sites being made more difficult. The regression analysis found that the net migration rate was 9.3 per cent points (95% CI: 2.0, 16.5) lower in Ceduna, Wyndham and Kununurra when compared with a group of comparable towns, and 5.2 per cent points (95% CI: 0.9, 9.5) lower when compared with Australia as a whole, meaning that the populations of these towns declined faster than those of comparable towns. Policy effects on mobility should be taken seriously by researchers and policymakers when considering place‐based welfare policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional development is a complex process that can be analysed in various contexts, including environmental, social and economic factors. Variations in the levels of development are naturally observed across countries and regions, but they play a special role in trans-border regions. The aim of this study is to investigate differences in the level of development of two Polish voivodships (Warmia and Mazury, and Podlasie) and two Lithuanian counties (Marijampolė and Alytus) which are trans-border regions (NUTS 4 level). The study was conducted by analysing three subordinate criteria, namely environmental, social and economic factors, as well as the overall development of the evaluated regions with the use of the analytical hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution methods. The evaluated trans-border regions are characterised by a predominance of rural areas and considerable variations in development. The entire area is characterised by high natural value. This is an important observation because the condition of the natural environment is a key determinant of well-being, and it directly influences the quality of life. The analysis revealed considerable demographic problems, mainly in Lithuanian regions, resulting from low population growth and a negative net migration rate which influence population structure. Disproportions in regional development call for regional policies that are adapted to local needs and resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]