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The quantity of ore mined and waste rock (i.e., overburden or barren rock) removed to produce a refined unit of a mineral commodity, its rock-to-metal ratio (RMR), is an important metric for understanding mine wastes and environmental burdens. In this analysis, we provide a comprehensive examination of RMRs for 25 commodities for 2018. The results indicate significant variability across commodities. Precious metals like gold have RMRs in the range of 10

Increasing demand for nonfuel mineral commodities has increased concerns regarding the reliability of their supplies. “Criticality” assessments over the past decade have attempted to capture this concern through a set of indicators, the most common of which quantifies the risk associated with market concentration by applying the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) to the world production of a given commodity by country in a given year. Although this approach is useful, it inherently assumes that all of world production is available to the market and is thus potentially at risk. In this analysis, the HHI, as well as HHI weighted by country governance, is calculated for mined and refined zinc via the standard approach of including all world production data and comparing that to the HHI when using the best estimate of what is available to the world market. The results indicate that although the HHI of both mined and refined zinc world production has increased markedly over the past decade, the HHI for what is available to the market for mined and refined zinc has remained relatively constant and low, which is indicative of minimal supply risk. This is mainly owing to the fact that a large and increasing share of the world’s mined and refined zinc production comes from China, but that production supplies domestic consumption as well as small amounts of exports. As a result, the zinc materials that are available to the world market are produced by a relatively large and diverse set of countries. Although these analyses are specific to zinc, they are likely to be comparable for other commodities of which the largest producers are also the largest consumers and highlight the importance of examining different perspectives in criticality assessments.

Supply disruptions of imported mineral commodities pose significant risk to U.S. manufacturers of emerging technologies., Trade tensions, resource nationalism, and various other factors are increasing concerns regarding the supply reliability of nonfuel mineral commodities. This is especially the case for commodities required for new and emerging technologies ranging from electric vehicles to wind turbines. In this analysis, we use a conventional risk-modeling framework to develop and apply a new methodology for assessing the supply risk to the U.S. manufacturing sector. Specifically, supply risk is defined as the confluence of three factors: the likelihood of a foreign supply disruption, the dependency of U.S. manufacturers on foreign supplies, and the ability of U.S. manufacturers to withstand a supply disruption. The methodology is applied to 52 commodities for the decade spanning 2007–2016. The results indicate that a subset of 23 commodities, including cobalt, niobium, rare earth elements, and tungsten, pose the greatest supply risk. This supply risk is dynamic, shifting with changes in global market conditions.

The supply and demand of tantalum has undergone a number of significant shifts over the past few decades. The purpose of this work is to quantify how these shifts have affected tantalum’s global material cycle. A global stocks and flows model for tantalum has thus been developed for the years 1970–2015. The results indicate that the overall quantity of tantalum prompt scrap generated during manufacturing has increased notably due to tantalum’s increased use as an alloy additive and sputtering target. In contrast, the amount of tantalum contained in recycled obsolete scrap, mainly in the form of used carbides, is estimated to have remained relatively constant since the late-1980s. Moreover, tantalum’s overall end-of-life recycling rate (EoL-RR) seems to have declined from a high of 22–25% in the 1990s to approximately 18% today. This decline is also attributable to the shift in tantalum’s use from carbides to sputtering targets and chemicals that, along with tantalum’s use in capacitors, have not been recycled at the end-of-life (EoL) in significant quantities. The results also indicate that 21–25% of tantalum produced since 1970 is still in use today, with the remainder having been lost during processing, manufacturing, use, or at the EoL. However, a portion of the EoL “discards” may actually still be retained by the end-user as “hibernating” stocks that could potentially be recycled if the economic, technical, and behavioral challenges of recycling obsolete electronics are overcome.

Increasing reliance on non-renewable mineral resources reinforces the need for identifying potential supply constraints before they occur. The US National Science and Technology Council recently released a report that outlines a methodology for screening potentially critical minerals based on three indicators: supply risk (R), production growth (G), and market dynamics (M). This early-warning screening was initially applied to 78 minerals across the years 1996 to 2013 and identified a subset of minerals as “potentially critical” based on the geometric average of these indicators—designated as criticality potential (C). In this study, the screening methodology has been updated to include data for 2014, as well as to incorporate revisions and modifications to the data, where applicable. Overall, C declined in 2014 for the majority of minerals examined largely due to decreases in production concentration and price volatility. However, the results vary considerably across minerals, with some minerals, such as gallium, recording increases for all three indicators. In addition to assessing magnitudinal changes, this analysis also examines the significance of the change relative to historical variation for each mineral. For example, although mined nickel’s R declined modestly in 2014 in comparison to that of other minerals, it was by far the largest annual change recorded for mined nickel across all years examined and is attributable to Indonesia’s ban on the export of unprocessed minerals. Based on the 2014 results, 20 minerals with the highest C values have been identified for further study including the rare earths, gallium, germanium, rhodium, tantalum, and tungsten.

The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

Significance Expanding demand for nonfuel minerals that enable pivotal technologies has elevated concerns regarding supply security, especially for nations that are highly import reliant. Although import reliance has become a prominent concern, few studies assess import reliance and none compare import reliance of countries concurrently. Doing so provides insights into resource interdependency and competition potential. Here, we compare the net import reliance of 42 minerals for the two largest national economies, China and the United States. We find that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious., Historically, resource conflicts have often centered on fuel minerals (particularly oil). Future resource conflicts may, however, focus more on competition for nonfuel minerals that enable emerging technologies. Whether it is rhenium in jet engines, indium in flat panel displays, or gallium in smart phones, obscure elements empower smarter, smaller, and faster technologies, and nations seek stable supplies of these and other nonfuel minerals for their industries. No nation has all of the resources it needs domestically. International trade may lead to international competition for these resources if supplies are deemed at risk or insufficient to satisfy growing demand, especially for minerals used in technologies important to economic development and national security. Here, we compare the net import reliance of China and the United States to inform mineral resource competition and foreign supply risk. Our analysis indicates that China relies on imports for over half of its consumption for 19 of 42 nonfuel minerals, compared with 24 for the United States—11 of which are common to both. It is for these 11 nonfuel minerals that competition between the United States and China may become the most contentious, especially for those with highly concentrated production that prove irreplaceable in pivotal emerging technologies.

Imbalances between metal supply and demand, real or anticipated, have inspired the concept of metal criticality. We here characterize the criticality of 62 metals and metalloids in a 3D "criticality space" consisting of supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Contributing factors that lead to extreme values include high geopolitical concentration of primary production, lack of available suitable substitutes, and political instability. The results show that the limitations for many metals important in emerging electronics (e.g., gallium and selenium) are largely those related to supply risk; those of platinum group metals, gold, and mercury, to environmental implications; and steel alloying elements (e.g., chromium and niobium) as well as elements used in high-temperature alloys (e.g., tungsten and molybdenum), to vulnerability to supply restriction. The metals of most concern tend to be those available largely or entirely as byproducts, used in small quantities for highly specialized applications, and possessing no effective substitutes.

In some common uses metals are lost by intent-copper in brake pads, zinc in tires, and germanium in retained catalyst applications being examples. In other common uses, metals are incorporated into products in ways for which no viable recycling approaches exist, examples include selenium in colored glass and vanadium in pigments. To determine quantitatively the scope of these "losses by design", we have assessed the major uses of 56 metals and metalloids, assigning each use to one of three categories: in-use dissipation, currently unrecyclable when discarded, or potentially recyclable when discarded. In-use dissipation affects fewer than a dozen elements (including mercury and arsenic), but the spectrum of elements dissipated increases rapidly if applications from which they are currently unrecyclable are considered. In many cases the resulting dissipation rates are higher than 50%. Among others, specialty metals (e.g., gallium, indium, and thallium) and some heavy rare earth elements are representative of modern technology, and their loss provides a measure of the degree of unsustainability in the contemporary use of materials and products. Even where uses are currently compatible with recycling technologies and approaches, end of life recycling rates are in most cases well below those that are potentially achievable. The outcomes of this research provide guidance in identifying product design approaches for reducing material losses so as to increase element recovery at end-of-life.

Recent constraints on supplies of the rare earth elements (REEs) have led to concerns about their long-term availability as well as the consequences that shortages would pose for modern technology. To assess this situation, we apply a comprehensive “criticality” methodology to the REE: lanthanum (La); cerium (Ce); praseodymium (Pr); neodymium (Nd); samarium (Sm); europium (Eu); gadolinium (Gd); terbium (Tb); dysprosium (Dy); holmium (Ho); erbium (Er); thulium (Tm); ytterbium (Yb); lutetium (Lu); and yttrium (Y). Assessments are made on national (U.S. and China) and global levels for the year 2008. Evaluations of each indicator are presented and the results plotted in “criticality space” on a 0 to 100 scale. Over the medium term (5 to 10 years), supply risk (SR) for all REEs is moderate with minimal variation (62.8 to 65.1). Over the long term (10 to 100 years), SR is low (42.1 to 49.2). Environmental implications scores, reflecting the economic allocation of environmental burdens, range from 4.2 for La to 34.4 for Lu. Eu, Er, and Dy have the highest vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) at the global level (50.6, 49.2, and 47.4, respectively), whereas Sm has the lowest (15.1). This is mainly a reflection of their substitution potential. Similarly, at the national level for the United States and China, Eu and Sm have the highest and lowest VSR scores, respectively, although there are notable differences in scores among the REEs and between countries. Although China's export restrictions render REE supplies inadequate to meet demand at present, our analysis indicates a lower criticality for REEs over the longer term than for a number of other industrially used metals

Substitution is often touted as a potential solution to concerns regarding material supply restrictions, yet the degree to which substitution can abate these concerns has not been fully explored. This article examines the issue of elemental substitution by identifying potential substitutes for the platinum-group metals (PGMs) and highlighting factors that may limit substitution in each of their major commercial applications. The findings suggest that substitution is often not possible or is impractical due to various technical and economic reasons. When suitable substitutes are available they are often other PGMs or elements in close proximity to the PGMs on the periodic table, namely Ni, Co, and Au. In several cases, however, substitution has already occurred and further substitution may not be possible. Furthermore, the co-production of PGMs and their most promising potential substitutes from the same mineral deposits limits their ability to substitute for one another in the event of a supply disruption. The combination of these factors suggests that PGM substitution potential for current high-volume applications is limited and that further efforts are needed to develop new technologies that avoid the use of PGMs in order to significantly decrease our reliance on them in the future.

Life-cycle analyses, energy analyses, and a range of utilization efficiencies were developed to determine the carbon dioxide (CO2) and fossil fuel (FF) saved by various solid wood products, wood energy, and unharvested forests. Some products proved very efficient in CO2 and FF savings, while others did not. Not considering forest regrowth after harvest or burning if not harvested, efficient products save much more CO2 than the standing forest; but wood used only for energy generally saves slightly less. Avoided emissions (using wood in place of steel and concrete) contributes the most to CO2 and FF savings compared to the product and wood energy contributions. Burning parts of the harvested logs that are not used for products creates an additional CO2 and FF savings. Using wood substitutes could save 14 to 31% of global CO2 emissions and 12 to 19% of global FF consumption by using 34 to 100% of the world’s sustainable wood growth. Maximizing forest CO2 sequestration may not be compatible with biodiversity...

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with >85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

It is indisputable that modern life is enabled by the use of materials in its technologies. Those technologies do many things very well, largely because each material is used for purposes to which it is exquisitely fitted. The result over time has been a steady increase in product performance. We show that this materials complexity has markedly increased in the past half-century and that elemental life cycle analyses characterize rates of recycling and loss. A further concern is that of possible scarcity of some of the elements as their use increases. Should materials availability constraints occur, the use of substitute materials comes to mind. We studied substitution potential by generating a comprehensive summary of potential substitutes for 62 different metals in all their major uses and of the performance of the substitutes in those applications. As we show herein, for a dozen different metals, the potential substitutes for their major uses are either inadequate or appear not to exist at all. Further, for not 1 of the 62 metals are exemplary substitutes available for all major uses. This situation largely decouples materials substitution from price, thereby forcing material design changes to be primarily transformative rather than incremental. As wealth and population increase worldwide in the next few decades, scientists will be increasingly challenged to maintain and improve product utility by designing new and better materials, but doing so under potential constraints in resource availability.

In the metals industry, recycling is commonly included among the most viable options for climate change mitigation, because using secondary (recycled) instead of primary sources in metal production carries both the potential for significant energy savings and for greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Secondary metal production is, however, limited by the relative quantity of scrap available at end-of-life for two reasons: long product lifespans during use delay the availability of the material for reuse and recycling; and end-of-life recycling rates are low, a result of inefficient collection, separation, and processing. For a few metals, additional losses exist in the form of in-use dissipation. The sum of these lost material flows forms the theoretical maximum potential for future efficiency improvements. Based on a dynamic material flow analysis, we have evaluated these factors from an energy perspective for 50 metals and calculated the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions associated with the supply of lost material from primary sources that would otherwise be used to satisfy demand. A use-by-use examination demonstrates the potential emission gains associated with major application sectors. The results show that minimizing in-use dissipation and constraints to metal recycling have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the metal industry by about 13-23%, corresponding to 1% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798), but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes) or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use).

Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials, and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology has been created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to the elements of the geological copper family: Cu, As, Se, Ag, Te, and Au. These elements are technologically important, but show a substantial variation in different factors relating to their supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications. Assessments are made on corporate, national, and global levels for year 2008. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented and the results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates for each of the aggregated evaluations. For supply risk over both the medium term and long term, As is the highest risk of the six metals, with Se and Ag nearly as high. Gold has the most severe environmental implications ranking. Vulnerability to supply restriction (VSR) at the corporate level for an invented solar cell manufacturing firm shows Se, Te, and Cu as approximately equal, Cu has the highest VSR at the national level, and Cu and Au have the highest VSRs at the global level. Criticality vector magnitudes are greatest at the global level for As (and then Au and Ag) and at the national level for As and Au; at the corporate level, Se is highest with Te and Cu lower. An extension of this work, now in progress, will provide criticality estimates for several different development scenarios for the period 2010-2050.

Metals that are obtained largely or entirely as by-products are essential to modern technology, but their supplies may be constrained due to a variety of factors., The growth in technological innovation that has occurred over the past decades has, in part, been possible because an increasing number of metals of the periodic table are used to perform specialized functions. However, there have been increasing concerns regarding the reliability of supply of some of these metals. A main contributor to these concerns is the fact that many of these metals are recovered only as by-products from a limited number of geopolitically concentrated ore deposits, rendering their supplies unable to respond to rapid changes in demand. Companionality is the degree to which a metal is obtained largely or entirely as a by-product of one or more host metals from geologic ores. The dependence of companion metal availability on the production of the host metals introduces a new facet of supply risk to modern technology. We evaluated companionality for 62 different metals and metalloids, and show that 61% (38 of 62) have companionality greater than 50%. Eighteen of the 38—including such technologically essential elements as germanium, terbium, and dysprosium—are further characterized as having geopolitically concentrated production and extremely low rates of end-of-life recycling. It is this subset of companion metals—vital in current technologies such as electronics, solar energy, medical imaging, energy-efficient lighting, and other state-of-the-art products—that may be at the greatest risk of supply constraints in the coming decades.

International audience; : Because modern technology depends on reliable supplies of a wide variety of materials and because of increasing concern about those supplies, a comprehensive methodology was created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we apply this methodology to iron and several of its main alloying elements (i.e., vanadium, chromium, manganese, and niobium). These elements represent the basic metals of any industrial society and are vital for national security and economic well-being. Assessments relating to the dimensions of criticality - supply risk, vulnerability to supply restriction, and environmental implications - for 2008 are made on the global level and for the United States. Evaluations of each of the multiple indicators are presented, with aggregate results plotted in "criticality space", together with Monte Carlo simulation-derived "uncertainty cloud" estimates. Iron has the lowest supply risk, primarily because of its widespread geological occurrence. Vanadium displays the highest cradle-to-gate environmental implications, followed by niobium, chromium, manganese, and iron. Chromium and manganese, both essential in steel making, display the highest vulnerability to supply restriction, largely because substitution or substitution at equal performance is not possible for all end-uses. From a comprehensive perspective, we regard the overall criticality as low for iron and modest for the alloying elements we evaluated.

The unique chemical and physical proper- ties of metals mean that they are extensively utilized by industry in a huge variety of applications, including electronics, materials, industrial catalysts and chemi- cals. The increased consumer demand from a growing population worldwide with rising aspirations for a better life has resulted in concerns over the security of supply and accessibility of these valuable elements. As such, there is a growing need to develop alternative meth- ods to recover them from waste repositories, current or historic, both for hazard avoidance and potentially, as a new source of metals for industry. Phytoextrac- tion (the use of plants for the recovery of metals from waste repositories) is a green and novel technique for metal recovery, which, if done with the goal of resource supply rather than hazard mitigation, is termed "phy- tomining". The ability for plants to form metallic nan- oparticles as a consequence of phytoextraction could make the recovered metal ideally suited for utilization in green chemical technologies, such as catalysis. This review focuses on a multidisciplinary approach to ele- mental sustainability and highlights important aspects of metal lifecycle analysis, metal waste sources (includ- ing mine tailings), phytoextraction and potential green chemical applications that may result from the integra- tion of these approaches.

A comprehensive methodology has been created to quantify the degree of criticality of the metals of the periodic table. In this paper, we present and discuss the methodology, which is comprised of three dimensions: supply risk, environmental implications, and vulnerability to supply restriction. Supply risk differs with the time scale (medium or long), and at its more complex involves several components, themselves composed of a number of distinct indicators drawn from readily available peer-reviewed indexes and public information. Vulnerability to supply restriction differs with the organizational level (i.e., global, national, and corporate). The criticality methodology, an enhancement of a United States National Research Council template, is designed to help corporate, national, and global stakeholders conduct risk evaluation and to inform resource utilization and strategic decision-making. Although we believe our methodological choices lead to the most robust results, the framework has been constructed to permit flexibility by the user. Specific indicators can be deleted or added as desired and weighted as the user deems appropriate. The value of each indicator will evolve over time, and our future research will focus on this evolution. The methodology has proven to be sufficiently robust as to make it applicable across the entire spectrum of metals and organizational levels and provides a structural approach that reflects the multifaceted factors influencing the availability of metals in the 21st century.

This paper brings a discussion on the current state-of-the-art in criticality assessment in an international context. It analyzes the status of resource criticality concepts and their calculation methods. The current practice often exhibits a common two-axis assessment framework but the way the two axes are further operationalized shows heterogeneous approaches. Apart from the two-axis as key element of criticality assessment, the scope of the materials, the role of substitution, the delineation of the supply chain and data, and indicator selection are addressed as key elements. The abovementioned criticality assessment practice is approached in function of the upcoming international debate on criticality. The paper tackles the role of criticality assessment in the context of the sustainability assessment toolbox and it proposes a clear distinction between criticality assessment and resilience to criticality. The insights offered in the paper may feed the international discussion in the identification of elements that may be harmonized and elements that may be better left open in function of the particular application.

Today’s technology employs virtually the entire periodic table. The stocks and flows of the major metals, essentially unknown a decade ago, are now reasonably well quantified. Those cycles can be used to generate on overview of societal metal use. A key issue is whether scarcity implies long-term shortages or unavailability. To address this issue, a detailed methodology for generating a reliable assessment of the criticality of metals has been completed, making extensive use of peer-reviewed datasets and analytical approaches from the fields of geology, international trade, political science, and international policy, among others. This criticality evaluation has three components — Supply Risk, Environmental Implications, and Vulnerability to Supply Restriction, each of which is itself the composite of several metrics, as shown below.