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3. Evaluation of Association between Perceived Stress, Anxiety, Depression, Salivary Alpha-Amylase and Salivary Cortisol with Chronic Periodontitis

Author

Neamati N, Sadeghi S, Gholinia H, Qujeq D, Fereidooni M, Faramarzi M, Cellular, and Nouri P

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, biology, business.industry, Anxiety depression, medicine.disease, Chronic periodontitis, Endocrinology, Internal medicine, biology.protein, Medicine, Anxiety, medicine.symptom, business, Association (psychology), Alpha-amylase, Salivary cortisol, Depression (differential diagnoses)
Abstract

Introduction: Chronic Periodontitis is a multifactorial inflammatory disease, which is caused by certain series of bacteria in oral biofilm and leads to teeth supporting tissue destruction. Stress, depression and anxiety can affect periodontium health through variable different mechanisms. Cortisol is secreted from adrenocorticotropic glands in pituitary gland and can be used as index to determine psychological stress rate. Alpha-amylase is an salivary gland enzyme which is regulated through sympatric nervous system. The aim of the following study is to compare between different biomarkers related to the emotional stress, anxiety and depression in saliva and their role on periodontal health and also the correlation between periodontal parameters, stress, depression and anxiety. Method: 90 patients with age ranged from 35 to 45 years were participated in the study. Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels were measured in them. Levels of Stress, Anxiety and Depresion were evaluated using questionnaires. The relationship between psychological and biochemical factors with chronic Periodontitis were assessed. The results were analyzed by statistical analysis. Results: The mean concentration of salivary cortisol was 7.87±4.37 ng/ml in the case group and 4.33±2.11 ng/ml in the control group. The difference was statistically significant (p

Published
2021

5. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

Roth G. A., Roth, G, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, H, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, A, Abera, S, Abil, O, Abraha, H, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adedoyin, R, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adhena, B, Adib, M, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akbari, M, Akinyemi, R, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Aminde, L, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, E, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, S, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bali, A, Ballesteros, K, Banach, M, Banerjee, K, Bannick, M, Banoub, J, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, L, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, B, Baynes, H, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bejot, Y, Bekele, B, Belachew, A, Belay, E, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berman, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Bertolacci, G, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhalla, A, Bhattarai, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Biehl, M, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, T, Blacker, B, Basara, B, Borschmann, R, Bosetti, C, Bozorgmehr, K, Brady, O, Brant, L, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Callender, C, Campos-Nonato, I, Campuzano Rincon, J, Cano, J, Car, M, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Castillo Rivas, J, Castle, C, Castro, C, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chaturvedi, P, Chiang, P, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chisumpa, V, Chitheer, A, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Cohen, A, Cooper, L, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Cowie, B, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Crowe, C, Crump, J, Cunningham, M, Daba, A, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, A, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das, S, Gupta, R, Neves, J, Dasa, T, Dash, A, Davis, A, Davis Weaver, N, Davitoiu, D, Davletov, K, De La Hoz, F, De Neve, J, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Degfie, T, Deiparine, S, Demoz, G, Demtsu, B, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dessie, G, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dicker, D, Dinberu, M, Ding, E, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Donnelly, C, Dorsey, E, Doshi, P, Douwes-Schultz, D, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Eggen, A, El Bcheraoui, C, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Khatib, Z, Elkout, H, Ellingsen, C, Endres, M, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Esteghamati, A, Fakhar, M, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farvid, M, Farzadfar, F, Farzaei, M, Feigin, V, Feigl, A, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, G, Filip, I, Finegold, S, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Fornari, C, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fuller, J, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, J, Futran, N, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebrehiwot, T, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, B, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadami, M, Ghadimi, R, Ghasemi Falavarjani, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Gibney, K, Gill, P, Gill, T, Gillum, R, Ginawi, I, Giroud, M, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gomez-Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goto, A, Goulart, A, Gnedovskaya, E, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guimaraes, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, T, Gutierrez, R, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagos, T, Hailegiyorgis, T, Hailu, G, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Handal, A, Hankey, G, Harb, H, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, J, Hasan, M, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, R, Hay, S, He, Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Hegazy, M, Heibati, B, Heidari, M, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, N, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Heydarpour, S, Hibstu, D, Hoek, H, Hole, M, Homaie Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hosseini, S, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, P, Hoy, D, Hsiao, T, Hu, G, Huang, J, Husseini, A, Hussen, M, Hutfless, S, Idrisov, B, Ilesanmi, O, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, N, Islam, S, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, S, Jakovljevic, M, Jalu, M, James, S, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, A, Jeemon, P, Jenkins, K, Jha, R, Jha, V, Johnson, C, Johnson, S, Jonas, J, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, J, Jungari, S, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Karami, M, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karema, C, Karimi-Sari, H, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, D, Kassa, G, Kassa, T, Kassebaum, N, Katikireddi, S, Kaul, A, Kazemi, Z, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kazi, D, Kefale, A, Keiyoro, P, Kemp, G, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Kesavachandran, C, Khader, Y, Khafaei, B, Khafaie, M, Khajavi, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khater, M, Khoja, A, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, A, Kibret, G, Kidanemariam, Z, Kiirithio, D, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kivimaki, M, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Kolola, T, Kopec, J, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krishan, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Kutz, M, Kuzin, I, Kyu, H, Lad, D, Lad, S, Lafranconi, A, Lal, D, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lam, J, Lami, F, Lansingh, V, Lansky, S, Larson, H, Latifi, A, Lau, K, Lazarus, J, Lebedev, G, Lee, P, Leigh, J, Leili, M, Leshargie, C, Li, S, Li, Y, Liang, J, Lim, L, Lim, S, Limenih, M, Linn, S, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lodha, R, Lonsdale, C, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lunevicius, R, Ma, S, Macarayan, E, Mackay, M, Maclachlan, J, Maddison, E, Madotto, F, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Maghavani, D, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Manda, A, Mandarano-Filho, L, Manguerra, H, Mansournia, M, Mapoma, C, Marami, D, Maravilla, J, Marcenes, W, Marczak, L, Marks, A, Marks, G, Martinez, G, Martins-Melo, F, Martopullo, I, Marz, W, Marzan, M, Masci, J, Massenburg, B, Mathur, M, Mathur, P, Matzopoulos, R, Maulik, P, Mazidi, M, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mcmahon, B, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, M, Mehrotra, R, Mehta, K, Mehta, V, Mekonnen, T, Melese, A, Melku, M, Memiah, P, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, D, Mengistu, G, Mensah, G, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Mezgebe, H, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Millear, A, Miller, T, Miller-Petrie, M, Mini, G, Mirabi, P, Mirarefin, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, E, Misganaw, A, Mitiku, H, Moazen, B, Mohammad, K, Mohammadi, M, Mohammadifard, N, Mohammed, M, Mohammed, S, Mohan, V, Mokdad, A, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, I, Morgado-Da-Costa, J, Morrison, S, Moschos, M, Mouodi, S, Mousavi, S, Muchie, K, Mueller, U, Mukhopadhyay, S, Muller, K, Mumford, J, Musa, J, Musa, K, Mustafa, G, Muthupandian, S, Nachega, J, Nagel, G, Naheed, A, Nahvijou, A, Naik, G, Nair, S, Najafi, F, Naldi, L, Nam, H, Nangia, V, Nansseu, J, Nascimento, B, Natarajan, G, Neamati, N, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Neupane, S, Newton, C, Ngalesoni, F, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, A, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, L, Nguyen, M, Nguyen, T, Nichols, E, Ningrum, D, Nirayo, Y, Nixon, M, Nolutshungu, N, Nomura, S, Norheim, O, Noroozi, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nouri, H, Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, M, Nyasulu, P, Odell, C, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olivares, P, Olsen, H, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Ong, K, Ong, S, Oren, E, Orpana, H, Ortiz, A, Ortiz, J, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, Ozdemir, R, Mahesh, P, Pacella, R, Pakhale, S, Pakhare, A, Pakpour, A, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandian, J, Parisi, A, Park, E, Parry, C, Parsian, H, Patel, S, Pati, S, Patton, G, Paturi, V, Paulson, K, Pereira, A, Pereira, D, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, M, Piel, F, Pigott, D, Pillay, J, Pirsaheb, M, Pishgar, F, Polinder, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Pujar, A, Prakash, S, Prasad, N, Purcell, C, Qorbani, M, Quintana, H, Quistberg, D, Rade, K, Anwar Rafay, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahman, M, Rai, R, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Ranabhat, C, Ranjan, P, Rao, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Razo-Garcia, C, Reddy, K, Reiner, R, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezaeian, S, Rezai, M, Riahi, S, Ribeiro, A, Rios-Blancas, M, Roba, K, Roberts, N, Robinson, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, A, Rubagotti, E, Sachdev, P, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Safari, H, Safdarian, M, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, M, Salam, N, Salama, J, Salamati, P, De Freitas Saldanha, R, Saleem, Z, Salimi, Y, Salvi, S, Salz, I, Sambala, E, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric Milicevic, M, Jose, B, Sarker, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Sathian, B, Satpathy, M, Sawant, A, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Sayyah, M, Schaeffner, E, Schmidt, M, Schneider, I, Schottker, B, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Scott, J, Sekerija, M, Sepanlou, S, Servan-Mori, E, Seyedmousavi, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shackelford, K, Shafieesabet, A, Shahbazi, M, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shi, P, Shiferaw, M, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shiue, I, Shokraneh, F, Shrime, M, Si, S, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, T, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silberberg, D, Santos Silva, D, Silva, J, Da Silva, N, Silveira, D, Singh, J, Singh, N, Singh, P, Singh, V, Sinha, D, Sliwa, K, Smith, M, Sobaih, B, Sobhani, S, Sobngwi, E, Soneji, S, Soofi, M, Sorensen, R, Soriano, J, Soyiri, I, Sposato, L, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Starodubov, V, Stathopoulou, V, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Stewart, L, Stokes, M, Subart, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, M, Sur, P, Sutradhar, I, Sykes, B, Sylaja, P, Sylte, D, Szoeke, C, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabuchi, T, Tadakamadla, S, Takahashi, K, Tandon, N, Tassew, S, Taveira, N, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekalign, T, Tekle, M, Temsah, M, Temsah, O, Terkawi, A, Teshale, M, Tessema, B, Tessema, G, Thankappan, K, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Thrift, A, Thurston, G, Tilahun, B, To, Q, Tobe-Gai, R, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Torre, A, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Tran, K, Tripathi, S, Troeger, C, Truelsen, T, Truong, N, Tsadik, A, Tsoi, D, Tudor Car, L, Murat Tuzcu, E, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, K, Ullah, I, Undurraga, E, Updike, R, Usman, M, Uthman, O, Uzun, S, Vaduganathan, M, Vaezi, A, Vaidya, G, Valdez, P, Varavikova, E, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Villafaina, S, Violante, F, Vladimirov, S, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Vos, T, Wagner, G, Wagnew, F, Waheed, Y, Wallin, M, Walson, J, Wang, Y, Wassie, M, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Weldegebreal, F, Weldegwergs, K, Werdecker, A, Werkneh, A, West, T, Westerman, R, Whiteford, H, Widecka, J, Wilner, L, Wilson, S, Winkler, A, Wiysonge, C, Wolfe, C, Wu, S, Wu, Y, Wyper, G, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yadgir, S, Yadollahpour, A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yakob, B, Yan, L, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yasin, Y, Yentur, G, Yeshaneh, A, Yimer, E, Yip, P, Yirsaw, B, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yonga, G, Yoon, S, Yotebieng, M, Younis, M, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zadnik, V, Zaidi, Z, Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zare, Z, Zeleke, A, Zenebe, Z, Zhang, A, Zhang, K, Zhou, M, Zodpey, S, Zuhlke, L, Naghavi, M, Murray, C, Roth G. A., Abate D., Abate K. H., Abay S. M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R. S., Abebe H. T., Abebe M., Abebe Z., Abejie A. N., Abera S. F., Abil O. Z., Abraha H. N., Abrham A. R., Abu-Raddad L. J., Accrombessi M. M. K., Acharya D., Adamu A. A., Adebayo O. M., Adedoyin R. A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O. O., Adhena B. M., Adib M. G., Admasie A., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K. M., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmed M. B., Ahmed S., Aichour A. N., Aichour I., Aichour M. T. E., Akbari M. E., Akinyemi R. O., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R. M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alebel A., Alene K. A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S. M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alonso J., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A. T., Aminde L. N., Amini E., Ammar W., Amoako Y. A., Anber N. H., Andrei C. L., Androudi S., Animut M. D., Anjomshoa M., Ansari H., Ansha M. G., Antonio C. A. T., Anwari P., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Arora A., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K. K., Asayesh H., Asfaw E. T., Ataro Z., Atique S., Atre S. R., Ausloos M., Avokpaho E. F. G. A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B. P., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Azzopardi P. S., Babazadeh A., Bacha U., Badali H., Badawi A., Bali A. G., Ballesteros K. E., Banach M., Banerjee K., Bannick M. S., Banoub J. A. M., Barboza M. A., Barker-Collo S. L., Barnighausen T. W., Barquera S., Barrero L. H., Bassat Q., Basu S., Baune B. T., Baynes H. W., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Bekele B. B., Belachew A. B., Belay E., Belay Y. A., Bell M. L., Bello A. K., Bennett D. A., Bensenor I. M., Berman A. E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R. S., Bertolacci G. J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhalla A., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z. A., Biadgo B., Biehl M. H., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M. S., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., Blacker B. F., Basara B. B., Borschmann R., Bosetti C., Bozorgmehr K., Brady O. J., Brant L. C., Brayne C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N. J. K., Brenner H., Briant P. S., Britton G., Brugha T., Busse R., Butt Z. A., Callender C. S. K. H., Campos-Nonato I. R., Campuzano Rincon J. C., Cano J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carreras G., Carrero J. J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C. A., Castillo Rivas J., Castle C. D., Castro C., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang J. -C., Charlson F. J., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P. P. -C., Chimed-Ochir O., Chisumpa V. H., Chitheer A., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D. J., Chung S. -C., Cicuttini F. M., Ciobanu L. G., Cirillo M., Cohen A. J., Cooper L. T., Cortesi P. A., Cortinovis M., Cousin E., Cowie B. C., Criqui M. H., Cromwell E. A., Crowe C. S., Crump J. A., Cunningham M., Daba A. K., Dadi A. F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A. K., Dargan P. I., Daryani A., Das S. K., Gupta R. D., Neves J. D., Dasa T. T., Dash A. P., Davis A. C., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D. V., Davletov K., De La Hoz F. P., De Neve J. -W., Degefa M. G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T. T., Deiparine S., Demoz G. T., Demtsu B. B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D. C., Dessie G. A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S. D., Dicker D., Dinberu M. T., Ding E. L., Dirac M. A., Djalalinia S., Dokova K., Doku D. T., Donnelly C. A., Dorsey E. R., Doshi P. P., Douwes-Schultz D., Doyle K. E., Driscoll T. R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E. E., Duncan B. B., Duraes A. R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Edessa D., Edvardsson D., Eggen A. E., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Ellingsen C. L., Endres M., Endries A. Y., Er B., Erskine H. E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esmaeili R., Esteghamati A., Fakhar M., Fakhim H., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farinha C. S. E., Faro A., Farvid M. S., Farzadfar F., Farzaei M. H., Feigin V. L., Feigl A. B., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S. -M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J. 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Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article.

Published
2018

6. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D. T., Dorsey E. R., Doyle K. E., Driscoll T. R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E. E., Duncan B. B., Duraes A. R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M. M., Edessa D., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Eggen A. E., Ehrlich J. R., El Bcheraoui C., El-Khatib Z., Elyazar I. R. F., Enayati A., Endalifer M. L., Endries A. Y., Er B., Erskine H. E., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T. A., Sa Farinha C. S. E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Fazaeli A. A., Feigin V. L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S. -M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J. C., Ferrari A. J., Ferreira M. L., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N. A., Foreman K. J., Frank T. D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J. M., Gakidou E., Gall S., Gallus S., Ganji M., Garcia-Basteiro A. L., Gardner W. M., Gebre A. K., Gebremedhin A. T., Gebremichael T. G., Gelano T. F., Geleijnse J. M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y. C. 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G., Hsairi M., Htet A. S., Huang J. J., Iburg K. M., Ikeda C. T., Ilesanmi O. S., Irvani S. S. N., Irvine C. M. S., Islam S. M. S., Islami F., Jacobsen K. H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S. K., Jakovljevic M., James S. L., Jayatilleke A. U., Jeemon P., Jha R. P., Jha V., Ji J. S., Johnson C. O., Jonas J. B., Jonnagaddala J., Shushtari Z. J., Joshi A., Jozwiak J. J., Jungari S. B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Kar C., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S. M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D. H., Kassa G. M., Kassa T. D., Kassebaum N. J., Katikireddi S. V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemi Z., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M. M., Keiyoro P. N., Kemmer L., Kemp G. R., Kengne A. P., Keren A., Khader Y. S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M. A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I. A., Khan E. A., Khan M. S., Khan M. A., Khang Y. -H., Khater M. M., Khazaei M., Khoja A. T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M. H., Kiadaliri A. A., Kidanemariam Z. T., Kiirithio D. N., Kim C. -I., Kim D., Kim Y. -E., Kim Y. J., Kimokoti R. W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Knudsen A. K. S., Kocarnik J. M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J. A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G. A., Koul P. A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Krishnaswami S., Krohn K. J., Defo B. K., Bicer B. K., Kumar G. A., Kumar M., Kuzin I., Lad D. P., Lad S. D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F. H., Lang J. J., Langan S. M., Lansingh V. C., Latifi A., Lau K. M. -M., Lazarus J. V., Leasher J. L., Ledesma J. R., Lee P. H., Leigh J., Leili M., Leshargie C. T., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liang X., Liao Y., Liben M. L., Lim L. -L., Lim S. S., Limenih M. A., Linn S., Liu S., Looker K. J., Lopez A. D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P. A., Lozano R., Lucas T. C. D., Lunevicius R., Lyons R. A., Ma S., Macarayan E. R. K., Mackay M. T., Maddison E. R., Madotto F., Maghavani D. P., Mai H. T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D. C., Mamun A. A., Manda A. -L., Manguerra H., Mansournia M. A., Mantilla Herrera A. M., Mantovani L. G., Maravilla J. C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F. R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M. B., Massano J., Massenburg B. B., Mathur M. R., Maulik P. K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J. J., McKee M., McMahon B. J., Mehata S., Mehrotra R., Mehta K. M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P. T. N., Memish Z. A., Mendoza W., Mengistu G., Mensah G. A., Mereta S. T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T. J., Mestrovic T., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A. I., Miller T. R., Mini G. K., Mirarefin M., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E. M., Misganaw A. T., Mitchell P. B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K. A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M. A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A. H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J. C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Velasquez I. M., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S. D., Moschos M. M., Mousavi S. M., Mruts K. B., Muche A. A., Muchie K. F., Mueller U. O., Muhammed O. S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J. E., Murthy G. V. S., Musa K. I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A. F., Nagata C., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nam H. S., Nangia V., Nansseu J. R., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R. I., Neupane S., Newton C. R. J., Ngunjiri J. W., Nguyen A. Q., Nguyen G., Nguyen H. T., Nguyen H. L. T., Nguyen L. H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N. B., Nguyen S. H., Nichols E., Ningrum D. N. A., Nixon M. R., Nomura S., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J. J., Nouri H. R., Shiadeh M. N., Nowroozi M. R., Nsoesie E. O., Nyasulu P. S., Odell C. M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F. A., Oh I. -H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A. T., Olagunju T. O., Olivares P. R., Olsen H. E., Olusanya B. O., Olusanya J. O., Ong K. L., Ong S. K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S. S., Overland S., Owolabi M. O., Mahesh P. 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R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G. A., Rothenbacher D., Rubagotti E., Sachdev P. S., Sadat N., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M. A., Sajadi H. S., Salam N., Salama J. S., Salamati P., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J. A., Salvi S. S., Salz I., Samy A. M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M. D., Santomauro D. F., Santos I. S., Santos J. V., Santric Milicevic M. M., Sao Jose B. P., Sardana M., Sarker A. R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Sawant A. R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M. I., Schneider I. J. C., Schutte A. E., Schwebel D. C., Schwendicke F., Scott J. G., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S. G., Servan-Mori E., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shafieesabet A., Shahbazi M., Shaheen A. A., Shaikh M. 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Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased

Published
2018

10. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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Ngunjiri, Josephine W, Nguyen, Anh Quynh, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Ha Thu, Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Huong Thanh, Nguyen, Long Hoang, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Nam Ba, Nguyen, Son Hoang, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nixon, Molly R, Nomura, Shuhei, Noroozi, Mehdi, Norrving, Bo, Noubiap, Jean Jacque, Nouri, Hamid Reza, Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour, Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza, Nsoesie, Elaine O, Nyasulu, Peter S, Odell, Christopher M, Ofori-Asenso, Richard, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew T, Olagunju, Tinuke O, Olivares, Pedro R, Olsen, Helen Elizabeth, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin L, Ong, Sok King, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Ota, Erika, Otstavnov, Stanislav S, Øverland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo, P A, Mahesh, Pacella, Rosana, Pakhare, Abhijit P, Pakpour, Amir H, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, Eun-Kee, Park, Jame, Parry, Charles D H, Parsian, Hadi, Pasdar, Yahya, Patel, Shanti, 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Subjects
Male, Health Status, health statu, HALE, mortality rate, communicable disease, DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Singapore, OUTCOMES, disability-adjusted life year, international cooperation, Medicine (all), 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Central African Republic, newborn disease, IRON-DEFICIENCY, AIDS, priority journal, Bahrain, disease severity, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, cerebrovascular accident, Ukraine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, INTERVENTIONS, Slovakia, DISORDERS, Burundi, WEIGHTS, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Communicable Diseases, Article, STYLE, Medicine, General & Internal, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, Healthy Lifestyle, HALE, DALYs, global burden of disease, Mortality, Aged, Science & Technology, Mortality, Premature, HIV, ischemic heart disease, major clinical study, PREVENTION, non communicable disease, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years, age, sex factor, Socioeconomic Factors, Algeria, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, lower respiratory tract infection, Wounds and Injuries, GENDER, Human medicine, trend study, chronic obstructive lung disease
Abstract

Background How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.4 years (95% uncertainty interval 74-7.8), from 65.6 years (65.3-65- 8) in 1990 to 73.0 years (72.7-73.3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5.1 years (5.0-5.3) in high SDI countries to 12.0 years (11.3-12.8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26.3% (20.1-33.1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11.7% (8.8-15.1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6.3 years (5.9-6.7), from 57.0 years (54.6-59.1) in 1990 to 63.3 years (60.5-65.7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3.8 years (3.4-4.1) in high SDI countries to 10.5 years (9.8-11.2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1.0 year (0.4-1.7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62.4 years [59.9-64.7] in 1990 to 63.5 years [60.9-65.8] in 2017) to 23.7 years (21.9-25.6) in Eritrea (30.7 years [28.9-32.2] in 1990 to 54.4 years [51.5-57.1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1.4 years (0.6-2.3) in Algeria to 11.9 years (10.9-12.9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75.8 years [72.4-78.7]) and males (72.6 years [69 " 8-75.0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47.0 years [43.7-50.2] for females and 42.8 years [40.1-45.6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41.3% (38.8-43.5) for communicable diseases and by 49"8% (47.9-51.6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40.1% (36.8-43.0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18.1% (16.0-20.2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low S DI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

12. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author

Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Higazi, T.B. Hilawe, E.H. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Hu, H. Huang, J.J. Hussen, M.A. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, N. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jackson, M.D. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kant, S. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B.K. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kromhout, H. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Larson, S.L. Latifi, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Machado, Í.E. Madotto, F. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Mekonnen, F.A. Melaku, Y.A. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators

Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2019

13. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Author

Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A. -M, Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H. -AS. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., Hay, S. I., Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. 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Abstract

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).

Published
2019
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14. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. 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Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2018

15. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Dicker, D. Nguyen, G. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abdurahman, A.A. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.L.C.B. Ahmed, S. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Anlay, D.Z. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asadi-Lari, M. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atey, T.M.M. Athari, S.S. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Attia, E.F. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awuah, B. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. 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El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. Elfaramawi, M. El-Khatib, Z. Ellingsen, C.L. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y.Y. Er, B. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. E Sá Farinha, C.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Ford, J.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Galan, A. Gallus, S. Gambashidze, K. Gamkrelidze, A. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gebre, T. Gebre, A.K. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gessner, B.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gomez-Cabrera, M.C. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horino, M. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, S. Hostiuc, M. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, R. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayaraman, S. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jee, S.H. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katibeh, M. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemeini, H. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D.D. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kleber, M.E. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kuipers, E.J. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lan, Q. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lavados, P.M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, Y. Li, X. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lonsdale, C. Lorch, S.A. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Mabika, C. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Maddison, R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manamo, W.A. Manda, A.-L. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martinez-Raga, J. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Massenburg, B.B. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Moges, N.A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M.A. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Murhekar, M. Murphy, T.B. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Pandian, J.D. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patle, A. Patten, S.B. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perez, K.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Pond, C.D. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. 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Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, V. Sinha, A.P. Sinha, D.N. Sitas, F. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Srivastava, R.K. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steel, N. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsilimparis, N. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.W.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wondemagegn, S.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yadav, R. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. York, H.W. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zachariah, G. Zadnik, V. Zafar, S. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeeb, H. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, K. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lopez, A.D. Gakidou, E. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).

Published
2018

16. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. 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Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

17. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, C.J.L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Kulikoff, X.R. Srinivasan, V. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdoli, N. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Abejie, A.N. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abreu, D.M.X. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Almasi, A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Arian, N. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Atey, T.M.M. Atique, S. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Biswas, T. Bizuneh, H. Bleyer, A. Basara, B.B. Bosetti, C. Boufous, S. Brady, O.J. Bragazzi, N.L. Brainin, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Brewer, J.D. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Burstein, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Çavlin, A. Cerin, E. Chalek, J. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Constantin, M.-M. Conti, S. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Cukelj, P. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dicker, D. Ding, E.L. Dinsa, G.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dolan, K.A. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Ermakov, S.P. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Farag, T. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. SáFarinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Fay, K.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Feizy, F. Fenny, A.P. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Fürst, T. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia, G.M. Garcia-Gordillo, M.Á. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gelano, T.F. Gelaw, Y.A. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Gething, P. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goli, S. Gomez, R.S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guo, J. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Hibstu, D.T. Hole, M.K. Rad, E.H. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseini Chavoshi, M.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Iburg, K.M. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irenso, A.A. Irvani, S.S.N. Isehunwa, O.O. Islam, S.M.S. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Kastor, A. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kereselidze, M. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kilgore, P.E. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kivimäki, M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Bicer, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kumsa, F.A. Kutz, M.J. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansky, S. Lansingh, V.C. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leshargie, C.T. Leta, S. Levi, M. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Mabika, C.M. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Mahmood, T.A.E. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malik, M.A. Mamun, A.A. Manamo, W.A. Manda, A.-L. Mangalam, S. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Mason-Jones, A.J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehrzadi, S. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Mola, G.D. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Mori, R. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Pedroso, M.M. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Pierce, M. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Polanczyk, G.V. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Moghaddam, S.S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salahshoor, M. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saldanha, R.D.F. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Saroshe, S. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schelonka, K. Schneider, I.J.C. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shakir, R.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Starodubov, V.I. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Strong, M. Subart, M.L. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabb, K.M. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Toyoshima, H. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathy, S.P. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsegay, A. Tsilimparis, N. Car, L.T. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, X. Zhao, X.-J. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Lopez, A.D. Lim, S.S. GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

18. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H.H. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Amiresmaili, M. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattu, V.K. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davitoiu, D.V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. De Steur, H. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endalifer, M.L. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guillemin, F. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Rad, E.H. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Huang, J.J. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Krishan, K. Krishnaswami, S. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Bicer, B.K. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Langan, S.M. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantilla Herrera, A.M. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massano, J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montanez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velásquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Park, J. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Pasdar, Y. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Nino, M.D. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokoohinia, Y. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. 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Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators

Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

19. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S.L. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alouani, M.M.L. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. 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Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators

Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

20. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Sartorius B., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Winkler A.S., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Wondemagegn S.A., Wu S., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yadav R., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., YentA1/4r G.K., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., York H.W., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zachariah G., Zadnik V., Zafar S., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeeb H., Zeleke M.M., Zenebe Z.M., Zerfu T.A., Zhang K., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lopez A.D., Gakidou E., Murray C.J.L., de Courten B., Thrift A.G., 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M., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Husseini A., Hussen M.M., Hutfless S., Iburg K.M., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Isehunwa O.O., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain R., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., James S.L., Javanbakht M., Jayaraman S., Jayatilleke A.U., Jee S.H., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., JA1/4risson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katibeh M., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemeini H., Kazemi Z., Kazemi Karyani A., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kereselidze M., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., 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Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Method(s): The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent comp

Published
2018

21. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zegeye D.T., Zegeye E.A., Zeleke A.J., Zendehdel K., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zimsen S.R.M., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Hughes C., Thrift A.G., Lozano R., Fullman N., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe N.D., Abebe Z., Abejie A.N., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Abyu G.Y., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshari M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agius D., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Ahmed S., Akalu T.Y., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam T., Albujeer A., Alebel A., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Almasi A., Al-Maskari F., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amenu K., Amini E., Ammar W., Anber N.H., Anderson J.A., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Appiah L.T., Aremu O., Areri H.A., Arnlov J., Arora M., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Babalola T.K., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banerjee A., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Barthelemy C.M., Bassat Q., Basu A., Basu S., Battista R.J., Baune B.T., Baynes H.W., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Bekele B.B., Belachew A.B., Belay A.G., Belay S.A., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Benzian H., Berhane A., Berhe A.K., Berman A.E., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Bertolacci G.J., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhalla A., Bhansali A., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Biehl M.H., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bililign N., Sayeed M.S.B., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bisanzio D., Biswas T., Bitew H., Bizuneh H., Bjertness E., Bobasa E.M., Boufous S., Bourne R., Bozorgmehr K., Bragazzi N.L., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brauer M., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Briant P.S., Britton G., Brugha T., Bukhman G., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Callender C.S.K.H., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Cano J., Car J., Car M., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Castro F., Causey K., Cavlin A., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chalek J., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chisumpa V.H., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Classen T.K.D., Cohen A.J., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Cooper L.T., Cornaby L., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Cromwell E.A., Crowe C.S., Cunningham M., Daba A.K., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dang A.K., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das S.K., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Dash A.P., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., Davletov K., Dayama A., De Leo D., Neve J.W.D., De Steur H., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Degfie T.T., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Demtsu B., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dicker D., Dinberu M.T., Ding E.L., Djalalinia S., Do H.P., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Douwes-Schultz D., Driscoll T.R., Duan L., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimpour S., Edvardsson D., El Bcheraoui C., Eldrenkamp E., El-Khatib Z., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Estep K., Fakhar M., Fakhim H., Fanzo J., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E.S., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Farzaei M.H., Farzam H., Fazaeli A.A., Fazeli M.S., Feigin V.L., Feigl A.B., Fekadu W., Feldman R., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Feyissa G.T., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finegold S., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Flor L.S., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Franklin R.C., Fukumoto T., Fukutaki K., Fuller J.E., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Gakidou E., Gallus S., Gankpe F.G., Gansevoort R.T., Garcia A.C., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Garcia-Gordillo M.A., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebre T., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael B., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Geramo Y.C.D., Getachew S., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadami M.R., Ghadimi R., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghiasvand H., Ghimire M., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gona P.N., Goodridge A., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goto A., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Griswold M.G., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C.C., Guillemin F., Guimaraes A.L.S., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Ha G.H., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Bidgoli H.H., Hagos T.B., Haile M.T., Hailegiyorgis T.T., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haririan H., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay S.I., He Y., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Hegazy M.I., Heibati B., Heidari B., Heidari M., Hendrie D., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Herteliu C., Heydarpour B., Heydarpour F., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hijar M., Hoek H.W., Hoffman D.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hsiao T., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Ivers R.Q., Izadi N., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jamal A.A., James S.L., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jonnagaddala J., Shushtari Z.J., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karanikolos M., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemi Z., Karyani A.K., Kazi D.S., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalid N., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khanna T., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaeipour Z., Khazaie H., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Khubchandani J., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiarie H.W., Kibret G.D., Kiirithio D.N., Kim D., Kim J.Y., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kinra S., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kissoon N., Kivimaki M., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosek M.N., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Defo B.K., Kucuk Bicer B., Kudom A.A., Kulikoff X.R., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kutz M.J., Kyu H.H., Lachat C., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lagat A.K., Lal D.K., Lalloo R., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lamichhane P., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansingh V.C., Lansky S., Larson H.J., Larsson A.O., Laryea D.O., Lassi Z.S., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Laxmaiah A., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Lebedev G., Ledesma J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Minnig S.P., Mirabi P., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadamnia A.A., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohan V., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J.C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morisaki N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mountjoy-Venning W.C., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nabhan A.F., Nachega J.B., Nagarajan A.J., Nagel G., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naidoo K., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Nawaz H., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngalesoni F.N., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A., Nguyen G., Nguyen H., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen M., Nichols E., Nigatu S.G., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Nisar M.I., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura M., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Shiadeh M.N., Nowroozi M.R., Nyasulu P.S., Obermeyer C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogah O.S., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Okoro A., Oladimeji K.E., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oommen A.M., Opio J.N., Oren E., Oros A., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz A., Ortiz J.R., Ortiz-Panozo E., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pakhale S., Pakhare A.P., Pan W.-H., Pana A., Panda B.K., Panda-Jonas S., Pandian J.D., Papantoniou N., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patel S., Pati S., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paudel D., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Peprah E.K., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pirsaheb M., Pletcher M., Pond C.D., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prasad N., Purcell C.A., Pyakurel M., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.S., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Razo-Garcia C., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., De Freitas Saldanha R., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Jose B.P.S., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Savic M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Sayyah M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shackelford K.A., Shafieesabet A., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M.B., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sharma S.K., She J., Sheikh A., Shey M.S., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shields C., Shifa G.T., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shirude S., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shokraneh F., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Shukla S.R., Si S., Siabani S., Sibai A.M., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silpakit N., Silva D.A.S., Silva J.P., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Singh O.P., Singh P.K., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Sliwa K., Smith A.E., Smith M., Filho A.M.S., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Soljak M., Soofi M., Soosaraei M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Soshnikov S., Soyiri I.N., Spinelli A., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan R.G., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Starodubov V.I., Stathopoulou V., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Stewart L.G., Stockfelt L., Stokes M.A., Straif K., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylaja P.N., Sylte D.O., Szoeke C.E.I., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tadakamadla S.K., Tamirat K.S., Tandon N., Tanser F.C., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Teshome D.F., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Theis A., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Thomson A.J., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tran T.T., Tripathy S.P., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Car L.T., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H.D., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Updike R.L., Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zegeye D.T., Zegeye E.A., Zeleke A.J., Zendehdel K., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zimsen S.R.M., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Hughes C., Thrift A.G., Lozano R., Fullman N., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe N.D., Abebe Z., Abejie A.N., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Abyu G.Y., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshari M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agius D., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Ahmed S., Akalu T.Y., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam T., Albujeer A., Alebel A., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck 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J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu 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Tanser F.C., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Teshome D.F., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Theis A., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Thomson A.J., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tran T.T., Tripathy S.P., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Car L.T., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H.D., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., and Updike R.L.

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob

Published
2018

22. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi A., Alavian S.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alouani M.M.L., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Aremu O., Ariani F., Armoon B., Arnlov J., Arora A., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Ataro Z., Atre S.R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayer R., Azzopardi P.S., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Bali A.G., Ballesteros K.E., Ballew S.H., Banach M., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Meltzer M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezerji N.M.G., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miltz B., Mini G.K., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pacella R., Pakpour A.H., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Parisi A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Patel S., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pesudovs K., Pham H.Q., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Piradov M.A., Pirsaheb M., Pishgar F., Plana-Ripoll O., Plass D., Polinder S., Popova S., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prakash V., Purcell C.A., Purwar M.B., Qorbani M., Quistberg D.A., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Ur Rahman M.H., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Ram U., Ranjan P., Ranta A., Rao P.C., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reinig N., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Rezaei S., Rezai M.S., Ribeiro A.L.P., Robinson S.R., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Sachdev P.S., Sadat N., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Saeedi Moghaddam S., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., Saleem K., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sang Y., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santos J.V., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sao Jose B.P., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Scott J.G., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Servan-Mori E., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shafieesabet A., Shahbazi M., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma M., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shi P., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shirkoohi R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shokraneh F., Shoman H., Shrime M.G., Si S., Siabani S., Siddiqi T.J., Sigfusdottir I.D., Sigurvinsdottir R., Silva J.P., Silveira D.G.A., Singam N.S.V., Singh J.A., Singh N.P., Singh V., Sinha D.N., Skiadaresi E., Slepak E.L.N., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Smith M., Soares Filho A.M., Sobaih B.H., Sobhani S., Sobngwi E., Soneji S.S., Soofi M., Soosaraei M., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sposato L.A., Sreeramareddy C.T., Srinivasan V., Stanaway J.D., Stein D.J., Steiner C., Steiner T.J., Stokes M.A., Stovner L.J., Subart M.L., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sunguya B.F., Sur P.J., Sutradhar I., Sykes B.L., Sylte D.O., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadakamadla S.K., Tadesse B.T., Tandon N., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Taylor H.R., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekelemedhin S.W., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teweldemedhin M., She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi A., Alavian S.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alouani M.M.L., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Arabloo J., Arauz A., Aremu O., Ariani F., Armoon B., Arnlov J., Arora A., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asghar R.J., Ataro Z., Atre S.R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayer R., Azzopardi P.S., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Bali A.G., Ballesteros K.E., Ballew S.H., Banach M., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza M.A., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnighausen T.W., Barrero L.H., Baune B.T., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay Y.A., Bell M.L., Bello A.K., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhattarai S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M.S., Bisanzio D., Blacker B.F., Blyth F.M., Bou-Orm I.R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O.J., Brainin M., Brant L.C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N.J.K., Brenner H., Briant P.S., Briggs A.M., Briko A.N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J.J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castillo Rivas J., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K.M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang A.R., Chang H.-Y., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi P., Chiang P.P.-C., Chin K.L., Chitheer A., Choi J.-Y.J., Chowdhury R., Christensen H., Christopher D.J., Cicuttini F.M., Ciobanu L.G., Cirillo M., Claro R.M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Coresh J., Cortesi P.A., Cortinovis M., Costa M., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Cromwell E.A., Cross M., Crump J.A., Dadi A.F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T.T., Davey G., Davis A.C., Davitoiu D.V., De La Hoz F.P., De Leo D., De Neve J.-W., Degefa M.G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Dellavalle R.P., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D.C., Dessie G.A., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dinberu M.T., Dirac M.A., Djalalinia S., Doan L., Dokova K., Doku D.T., Dorsey E.R., Doyle K.E., Driscoll T.R., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duken E.E., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Ebrahimi H., Ebrahimpour S., Echko M.M., Edvardsson D., Effiong A., Ehrlich J.R., El Bcheraoui C., El Sayed Zaki M., El-Khatib Z., Elkout H., Elyazar I.R.F., Enayati A., Endries A.Y., Er B., Erskine H.E., Eshrati B., Eskandarieh S., Esteghamati A., Esteghamati S., Fakhim H., Fallah Omrani V., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Farhadi F., Farid T.A., Farinha C.S.E., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Fernandes J.C., Ferrari A.J., Feyissa G.T., Filip I., Fischer F., Fitzmaurice C., Foigt N.A., Foreman K.J., Frank T.D., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Furst T., Furtado J.M., Futran N.D., Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Meltzer M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezerji N.M.G., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miltz B., Mini G.K., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh 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Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Method(s): We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we

Published
2018

23. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, Z, Abera, S, Abil, O, Abraha, H, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, I, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adib, M, Adsuar, J, Afanvi, K, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, S, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, S, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alouani, M, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Aminde, L, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Arauz, A, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arora, A, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Asghar, R, Ataro, Z, Atre, S, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bali, A, Ballesteros, K, Ballew, S, Banach, M, Banoub, J, Banstola, A, Barac, A, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Bärnighausen, T, Barrero, L, Baune, B, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Béjot, Y, Belachew, A, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bensenor, I, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhala, N, Bhattarai, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Blacker, B, Blyth, F, Bou-Orm, I, Boufous, S, Bourne, R, Brady, O, Brainin, M, Brant, L, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Briggs, A, Briko, A, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Buchbinder, R, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Cano, J, Cárdenas, R, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castañeda-Orjuela, C, Castillo Rivas, J, Castro, F, Catalá-López, F, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, A, Chang, H, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chattopadhyay, A, Chattu, V, Chaturvedi, P, Chiang, P, Chin, K, Chitheer, A, Choi, J, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Claro, R, Collado-Mateo, D, Cooper, C, Coresh, J, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Costa, M, Cousin, E, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Cross, M, Crump, J, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das Gupta, R, Das Neves, J, Dasa, T, Davey, G, Davis, A, Davitoiu, D, De Courten, B, De La Hoz, F, De Leo, D, De Neve, J, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Dellavalle, R, Demoz, G, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dessie, G, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dinberu, M, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Dorsey, E, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Echko, M, Edvardsson, D, Effiong, A, Ehrlich, J, El Bcheraoui, C, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Khatib, Z, Elkout, H, Elyazar, I, Enayati, A, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fakhim, H, Fallah Omrani, V, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farid, T, Farinha, C, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Farvid, M, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, V, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, G, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Fox, J, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Fürst, T, Furtado, J, Futran, N, Gall, S, Ganji, M, Gankpe, F, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghasemi Falavarjani, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Ghosh, R, Ghoshal, A, Giampaoli, S, Gill, P, Gill, T, Ginawi, I, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gómez-Dantés, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goulart, A, Goulart, B, Grada, A, Grams, M, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, 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Sanjay, Zucker, Inbar, Vos, Theo, and Murray, Christopher J L

Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we ca

Published
2018

24. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, C, Callender, C, Kulikoff, X, Srinivasan, V, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdel-Rahman, O, Abdi, A, Abdoli, N, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, H, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abebo, T, Abejie, A, Aboyans, V, Abraha, H, Abreu, D, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, P, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adedeji, I, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adhena, B, Adhikari, T, Adib, M, Adou, A, Adsuar, J, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aghayan, S, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akanda, A, Akbari, M, Akibu, M, Akinyemi, R, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alebel, A, Aleman, A, Alene, K, Al-Eyadhy, A, Ali, R, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Almasi, A, Alonso, J, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Ammar, W, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, 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Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with th

Published
2018

25. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes d

Published
2018

26. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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Abstract

Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent compon

Published
2018

27. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Roth, G, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, H, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, A, Abera, S, Abil, O, Abraha, H, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adedoyin, R, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adhena, B, Adib, M, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akbari, M, Akinyemi, R, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Aminde, L, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, E, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, S, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bali, A, Ballesteros, K, Banach, M, Banerjee, K, Bannick, M, Banoub, J, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, L, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, B, Baynes, H, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bejot, Y, Bekele, B, Belachew, A, Belay, E, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berman, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Bertolacci, G, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhalla, A, Bhattarai, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Biehl, M, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, T, Blacker, B, Basara, B, Borschmann, R, Bosetti, C, Bozorgmehr, K, Brady, O, Brant, L, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Callender, C, Campos-Nonato, I, Campuzano Rincon, J, Cano, J, Car, M, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Castillo Rivas, J, Castle, C, Castro, C, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chaturvedi, P, Chiang, P, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chisumpa, V, Chitheer, A, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Cohen, A, Cooper, L, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Cowie, B, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Crowe, C, Crump, J, Cunningham, M, Daba, A, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, A, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das, S, Gupta, R, Neves, J, Dasa, T, Dash, A, Davis, A, Davis Weaver, N, Davitoiu, D, Davletov, K, De La Hoz, F, De Neve, J, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Degfie, T, Deiparine, S, Demoz, G, Demtsu, B, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dessie, G, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dicker, D, Dinberu, M, Ding, E, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Donnelly, C, Dorsey, E, Doshi, P, Douwes-Schultz, D, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Eggen, A, El Bcheraoui, C, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Khatib, Z, Elkout, H, Ellingsen, C, Endres, M, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Esteghamati, A, Fakhar, M, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farvid, M, Farzadfar, F, Farzaei, M, Feigin, V, Feigl, A, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, G, Filip, I, Finegold, S, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Fornari, C, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fuller, J, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, J, Futran, N, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebrehiwot, T, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, B, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadami, M, Ghadimi, R, Ghasemi Falavarjani, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Gibney, K, Gill, P, Gill, T, Gillum, R, Ginawi, I, Giroud, M, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gomez-Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goto, A, Goulart, A, Gnedovskaya, E, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guimaraes, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, T, Gutierrez, R, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagos, T, Hailegiyorgis, T, Hailu, G, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Handal, A, Hankey, G, Harb, H, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, J, Hasan, M, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, R, Hay, S, He, Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Hegazy, M, Heibati, B, Heidari, M, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, N, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Heydarpour, S, Hibstu, D, Hoek, H, Hole, M, Homaie Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hosseini, S, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, P, Hoy, D, Hsiao, T, Hu, G, Huang, J, Husseini, A, Hussen, M, Hutfless, S, Idrisov, B, Ilesanmi, O, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, N, Islam, S, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, S, Jakovljevic, M, Jalu, M, James, S, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, A, Jeemon, P, Jenkins, K, Jha, R, Jha, V, Johnson, C, Johnson, S, Jonas, J, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, J, Jungari, S, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Karami, M, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karema, C, Karimi-Sari, H, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, D, Kassa, G, Kassa, T, Kassebaum, N, Katikireddi, S, Kaul, A, Kazemi, Z, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kazi, D, Kefale, A, Keiyoro, P, Kemp, G, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Kesavachandran, C, Khader, Y, Khafaei, B, Khafaie, M, Khajavi, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khater, M, Khoja, A, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, A, Kibret, G, Kidanemariam, Z, Kiirithio, D, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kivimaki, M, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Kolola, T, Kopec, J, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krishan, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Kutz, M, Kuzin, I, Kyu, H, Lad, D, Lad, S, Lafranconi, A, Lal, D, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lam, J, Lami, F, Lansingh, V, Lansky, S, Larson, H, Latifi, A, Lau, K, Lazarus, J, Lebedev, G, Lee, P, Leigh, J, Leili, M, Leshargie, C, Li, S, Li, Y, Liang, J, Lim, L, Lim, S, Limenih, M, Linn, S, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lodha, R, Lonsdale, C, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lunevicius, R, Ma, S, Macarayan, E, Mackay, M, Maclachlan, J, Maddison, E, Madotto, F, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Magdy Abd El Razek, M, Maghavani, D, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Manda, A, Mandarano-Filho, L, Manguerra, H, Mansournia, M, Mapoma, C, Marami, D, Maravilla, J, Marcenes, W, Marczak, L, Marks, A, Marks, G, Martinez, G, Martins-Melo, F, Martopullo, I, Marz, W, Marzan, M, Masci, J, Massenburg, B, Mathur, M, Mathur, P, Matzopoulos, R, Maulik, P, Mazidi, M, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mcmahon, B, Mehata, S, Mehndiratta, M, Mehrotra, R, Mehta, K, Mehta, V, Mekonnen, T, Melese, A, Melku, M, Memiah, P, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, D, Mengistu, G, Mensah, G, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Mezgebe, H, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Millear, A, Miller, T, Miller-Petrie, M, Mini, G, Mirabi, P, Mirarefin, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, E, Misganaw, A, Mitiku, H, Moazen, B, Mohammad, K, Mohammadi, M, Mohammadifard, N, Mohammed, M, Mohammed, S, Mohan, V, Mokdad, A, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, I, Morgado-Da-Costa, J, Morrison, S, Moschos, M, Mouodi, S, Mousavi, S, Muchie, K, Mueller, U, Mukhopadhyay, S, Muller, K, Mumford, J, Musa, J, Musa, K, Mustafa, G, Muthupandian, S, Nachega, J, Nagel, G, Naheed, A, Nahvijou, A, Naik, G, Nair, S, Najafi, F, Naldi, L, Nam, H, Nangia, V, Nansseu, J, Nascimento, B, Natarajan, G, Neamati, N, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Neupane, S, Newton, C, Ngalesoni, F, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, A, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, L, Nguyen, M, Nguyen, T, Nichols, E, Ningrum, D, Nirayo, Y, Nixon, M, Nolutshungu, N, Nomura, S, Norheim, O, Noroozi, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nouri, H, Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, M, Nyasulu, P, Odell, C, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olivares, P, Olsen, H, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Ong, K, Ong, S, Oren, E, Orpana, H, Ortiz, A, Ortiz, J, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, Ozdemir, R, Mahesh, P, Pacella, R, Pakhale, S, Pakhare, A, Pakpour, A, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pandian, J, Parisi, A, Park, E, Parry, C, Parsian, H, Patel, S, Pati, S, Patton, G, Paturi, V, Paulson, K, Pereira, A, Pereira, D, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Phillips, M, Piel, F, Pigott, D, Pillay, J, Pirsaheb, M, Pishgar, F, Polinder, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Pujar, A, Prakash, S, Prasad, N, Purcell, C, Qorbani, M, Quintana, H, Quistberg, D, Rade, K, Anwar Rafay, A, Rahim, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahman, M, Rai, R, Rajsic, S, Ram, U, Ranabhat, C, Ranjan, P, Rao, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Razo-Garcia, C, Reddy, K, Reiner, R, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezaeian, S, Rezai, M, Riahi, S, Ribeiro, A, Rios-Blancas, M, Roba, K, Roberts, N, Robinson, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rothenbacher, D, Roy, A, Rubagotti, E, Sachdev, P, Saddik, B, Sadeghi, E, Safari, H, Safdarian, M, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, M, Salam, N, Salama, J, Salamati, P, De Freitas Saldanha, R, Saleem, Z, Salimi, Y, Salvi, S, Salz, I, Sambala, E, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric Milicevic, M, Jose, B, Sarker, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Sathian, B, Satpathy, M, Sawant, A, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Sayyah, M, Schaeffner, E, Schmidt, M, Schneider, I, Schottker, B, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Scott, J, Sekerija, M, Sepanlou, S, Servan-Mori, E, Seyedmousavi, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shackelford, K, Shafieesabet, A, Shahbazi, M, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shi, P, Shiferaw, M, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shiue, I, Shokraneh, F, Shrime, M, Si, S, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, T, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silberberg, D, Santos Silva, D, Silva, J, Da Silva, N, Silveira, D, Singh, J, Singh, N, Singh, P, Singh, V, Sinha, D, Sliwa, K, Smith, M, Sobaih, B, Sobhani, S, Sobngwi, E, Soneji, S, Soofi, M, Sorensen, R, Soriano, J, Soyiri, I, Sposato, L, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Starodubov, V, Stathopoulou, V, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Stewart, L, Stokes, M, Subart, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, M, Sur, P, Sutradhar, I, Sykes, B, Sylaja, P, Sylte, D, Szoeke, C, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabuchi, T, Tadakamadla, S, Takahashi, K, Tandon, N, Tassew, S, Taveira, N, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekalign, T, Tekle, M, Temsah, M, Temsah, O, Terkawi, A, Teshale, M, Tessema, B, Tessema, G, Thankappan, K, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Thrift, A, Thurston, G, Tilahun, B, To, Q, Tobe-Gai, R, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Torre, A, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Tran, B, Tran, K, Tripathi, S, Troeger, C, Truelsen, T, Truong, N, Tsadik, A, Tsoi, D, Tudor Car, L, Murat Tuzcu, E, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, K, Ullah, I, Undurraga, E, Updike, R, Usman, M, Uthman, O, Uzun, S, Vaduganathan, M, Vaezi, A, Vaidya, G, Valdez, P, Varavikova, E, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Villafaina, S, Violante, F, Vladimirov, S, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Vos, T, Wagner, G, Wagnew, F, Waheed, Y, Wallin, M, Walson, J, Wang, Y, Wassie, M, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Weldegebreal, F, Weldegwergs, K, Werdecker, A, Werkneh, A, West, T, Westerman, R, Whiteford, H, Widecka, J, Wilner, L, Wilson, S, Winkler, A, Wiysonge, C, Wolfe, C, Wu, S, Wu, Y, Wyper, G, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yadgir, S, Yadollahpour, A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yakob, B, Yan, L, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yasin, Y, Yentur, G, Yeshaneh, A, Yimer, E, Yip, P, Yirsaw, B, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yonga, G, Yoon, S, Yotebieng, M, Younis, M, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zadnik, V, Zaidi, Z, Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zare, Z, Zeleke, A, Zenebe, Z, Zhang, A, Zhang, K, Zhou, M, Zodpey, S, Zuhlke, L, Naghavi, M, Murray, C, Roth, Gregory A., Abate, Degu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abay, Solomon M., Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbasi, Nooshin, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Abebe, Haftom Temesgen, Abebe, Molla, Abebe, Zegeye, Abejie, Ayenew Negesse, Abera, Semaw F., Abil, Olifan Zewdie, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abrham, Aklilu Roba, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou, Acharya, Dilaram, Adamu, Abdu A., Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Adhena, Beyene Meressa, Adib, Mina G., Admasie, Amha, Afshin, Ashkan, Agarwal, Gina, Agesa, Kareha M., Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Alireza, Ahmadi, Mehdi, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ahmed, Sayem, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M., Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alebel, Animut, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, Francois, Allebeck, Peter, Alonso, Jordi, Altirkawi, Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Aminde, Leopold N., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Animut, Megbaru Debalkie, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Hossein, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Aremu, Olatunde, Arnlov, Johan, Arora, Amit, Arora, Monika, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna K., Asayesh, Hamid, Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay, Ataro, Zerihun, Atique, Suleman, Atre, Sachin R., Ausloos, Marcel, Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A., Awasthi, Ashish, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Ayele, Yohanes, Ayer, Rakesh, Azzopardi, Peter S., Babazadeh, Arefeh, Bacha, Umar, Badali, Hamid, Badawi, Alaa, Bali, Ayele Geleto, Ballesteros, Katherine E., Banach, Maciej, Banerjee, Kajori, Bannick, Marlena S., Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar, Barboza, Miguel A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barquera, Simon, Barrero, Lope H., Bassat, Quique, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Behzadifar, Masoud, Behzadifar, Meysam, Bejot, Yannick, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Belachew, Abate Bekele, Belay, Ezra, Belay, Yihalem Abebe, Bell, Michelle L., Bello, Aminu K., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berman, Adam E., Bernabe, Eduardo, Bernstein, Robert S., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Beuran, Mircea, Beyranvand, Tina, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhattarai, Suraj, Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Biadgo, Belete, Biehl, Molly H., Bijani, Ali, Bikbov, Boris, Bilano, Ver, Bililign, Nigus, Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat, Bisanzio, Donal, Biswas, Tuhin, Blacker, Brigette F., Basara, Berrak Bora, Borschmann, Rohan, Bosetti, Cristina, Bozorgmehr, Kayvan, Brady, Oliver J., Brant, Luisa C., Brayne, Carol, Brazinova, Alexandra, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brenner, Hermann, Briant, Paul Svitil, Britton, Gabrielle, Brugha, Traolach, Busse, Reinhard, Butt, Zahid A., Callender, Charlton S. K. 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Ashworth, Djalalinia, Shirin, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Donnelly, Christl A., Dorsey, E. 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Abstract

Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest

Published
2018

30. Discovery of a small-molecule HIV-1 integrase inhibitor-binding site

Author

Borchers, C. H., Burke, T. R., Witvrouw, M., Neamati, N., Fikkert, V., Dayam, R., and Al-Mawsawi, L. Q.

Abstract

Herein, we report the identification of a unique HIV-1 integrase (IN) inhibitor-binding site using photoaffinity labeling and mass spectrometric analysis. We chemically incorporated a photo-activatable benzophenone moiety into a series of coumarin-containing IN inhibitors. A representative of this series was covalently photo-crosslinked with the IN core domain and subjected to HPLC purification. Fractions were subsequently analyzed by using MALDI-MS and electrospray ionization (ESI)-MS to identify photo-crosslinked products. In this fashion, a single binding site for an inhibitor located within the tryptic peptide 128AACWWAGIK136 was identified. Site-directed mutagenesis followed by in vitro inhibition assays resulted in the identification of two specific amino acid residues, C130 and W132, in which substitutions resulted in a marked resistance to the IN inhibitors. Docking studies suggested a specific disruption in functional oligomeric IN complex formation. The combined approach of photo-affinity labeling/MS analysis with site-directed mutagenesis/molecular modeling is a powerful approach for elucidating inhibitor-binding sites of proteins at the atomic level. This approach is especially important for the study of proteins that are not amenable to traditional x-ray crystallography and NMR techniques. This type of structural information can help illuminate processes of inhibitor resistance and thereby facilitate the design of more potent second-generation inhibitors.

Published
2006
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