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Patterns of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lambert) pollen cone production are of interest because they may help explain jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus pinus Freeman) outbreak patterns. We used generalized linear mixed models to analyze pollen cone production in 180 permanent plots in Ontario, Canada between 1992 and 2008. Pollen cone production increased with stand age, and large trees in sparsely-populated stands produced more pollen cones. Defoliation decreased the propensity of trees to produce pollen cones for at least two years. We also identified important patterns that are not explained by defoliation and stand characteristics. Pollen cone production is spatially synchronized among years, trees in central Ontario produced more pollen cones than trees in northwestern Ontario, and background cone production increased over time in the central region but not in more northwestern plots. Synchronized reproduction is common among tree species, but has not previously been noted for jack pine pollen cones. Increasing cone production in central Ontario may be evidence of changing forest and (or) climatic conditions and deserves further investigation. Our model can be used to quantitatively predict pollen cone production and assess the risk of jack pine budworm defoliation. Key words: Choristoneura pinus pinus, Pinus banksiana, population dynamics, spatial synchrony, insect plant interactions. Resume: Les profils de production de cones males chez le pin gris (Pinus banksiana Lambert) presentent un interet parce qu'ils pourraient contribuer a expliquer le comportement des epidemies de tordeuse du pin gris (Choristoneura pinus pinus Freeman). Nous avons utilise des modeles lineaires mixtes generalises pour analyser la production de cones males dans 180 placettes permanentes en Ontario, au Canada, entre 1992 et 2008. La production de cones males augmentait avec l'age du peuplement et les gros arbres dans les peuplements clairsemes produisaient plus de cones males. La defoliation reduisait la propension des arbres a produire des cones males pendant au moins deux ans. Nous avons aussi identifie des profils importants qui ne sont pas expliques par la defoliation ni par les caracteristiques du peuplement. La production de cones males est spatialement synchronisee d'une annee a l'autre: les arbres produisaient plus de cones males dans le centre que dans le nord-ouest de l'Ontario, et la production historique de cones males a augmente avec le temps dans la region centrale mais pas dans les placettes les plus eloignees vers le nord-ouest. La reproduction synchrone est courante parmi les especes d'arbre mais n'avait pas jusqu'ici ete observee chez les cones males du pin gris. La production accrue de cones males dans le centre de l'Ontario pourrait etre un indice que les conditions climatiques et la foret changent et merite d'etre davantage etudiee. Notre modele peut etre utilise pour predire de facon qualitative la production de cones males et evaluer le risque de defoliation par la tordeuse du pin gris. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: Choristoneura pinus, Pinus banksiana, dynamique des populations, synchronisme spatial, interactions entre les plantes et les insects., Introduction Many animal populations undergo large, spatially synchronized changes in abundance over time, and determining the causes of these patterns is a central topic in population ecology (Bjornstad and Grenfell [...]

1. A lagged, density-dependent relationship between survival of early instars and host-tree condition is revealed during outbreaks of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. Persistent damage to hosts leads to deterioration of the stand. 2. Resource limitation affects survival during early-instar dispersal of spruce budworm. Impediments to distinguishing these events with estimates of survival were overcome with a simple model that describes the dispersal and survival processes. The model was used to analyse a recent 15-year population series from Black Sturgeon Lake and two historical datasets from Green River, in Canada. 3. Defoliation-induced damage to the trees resulted in increased losses of spring-emerging larvae that are dispersing in search of feeding sites. Losses were further exacerbated by biotic factors such as maternal fecundity, rates of infection by the pathogen, Nosema fumiferanae, and by weather-related effects on the foraging period. 4. Survival of early-stage budworm larvae in persistent outbreaks declined and the likelihood of other density-related factors such as rate of mortality from natural enemies increased. These results may reconcile outstanding differences in interpretation of the role of the forest resource in spruce budworm population dynamics and point to a common process linking the dynamics of other well-known budworm species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]