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We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, triggering a global transformation on how we use and protect the half of our planet requires a concerted effort that is guided by shared values and principles across regions and sectors. The aim of the series of workshops outlined in this paper, was to undertake a futures thinking process that could use the Nature Futures Framework as a mechanism to bring more transformative energy into how humans conceptualise the high seas and therefore how we aim to govern the ocean. We found that engaging with the future through science fiction narratives allowed a more radical appreciation of what could be and infusing science with artistic elements can inspire audiences beyond academia. Thus, creative endeavours of co-production that promote and encourage imagination to address current challenges should be considered as important tools in the science-policy interface, also as a way to elicit empathetic responses. This workshop series was a first, and hopefully promising, step towards generating a more creative praxis in how we imagine and then act for a better future for the high seas.

Stories about the future are a powerful tool for navigating uncertainty, building agency, and detecting opportunities for transformation. For communities that have weathered colonialism, future visions grounded in local values and knowledge are especially powerful. Futures based in diverse value systems are also valuable assets for global efforts toward sustainability transformation. This thesis project began with a participatory visioning workshop in Mombera Kingdom, a community located in Malawi. We invited the kingdom’s traditional leaders to imagine positive futures for nature and people in their district. This workshop was a case study application of the Nature Futures Framework (NFF), a heuristic tool that enables explicit discussion of different ways that people value nature. Following the workshop, I applied the NFF in a novel way to translate the rich and diverse participant visions into distinct, packaged future scenarios. First, I built a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) that represents dynamics in the present. Second, I organized possible interventions according to their expected impact on the NFF’s value perspectives. Third, I used those interventions to build three desirable scenarios of the kingdom’s future, each of which is desirable according to different values. Finally, I gathered stakeholder feedback on the scenarios at a follow-up workshop. The CLD suggests that misalignment within agricultural and energy production institutions causes failure to mediate ecosystem health and human well-being. The intervention analysis demonstrates that value-diverse visions can be translated into value-discrete scenarios. The scenarios capture images of modernity firmly grounded in Mombera Kingdom’s cultural values, rather than the culture that once colonized them. These results suggest new problem framings and strategies in the case study context. This project is a useful step toward regional- and global-scale future scenarios able to include Africa’s locally situated, AFRICAN FUTURES

In line with its mandate, the IPBES task force on scenarios and models developed a methodological guidance to accompany the foundations of the Nature Futures Framework, a flexible tool to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth, welcomed by the IPBES Plenary in decision IPBES-9/1. The methodological guidance was further refined by the task force, and reviewed by the Multidisciplinary Expert Panel and the Bureau in May 2023. The current version was presented at IPBES 10 in document IPBES/10/INF/13 in August 2023. The methodological guidance document consists of two parts: Part I: The Foundations of the Nature Futures Framework, a flexible tool to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth, describing the rationale for, and concepts captured in, the Nature Futures Framework; and Part II: A living methodological guidance that introduces the various methods with which the Nature Futures Framework can be used, and points to examples and additional resources for readers who wish to explore further technical details.

Scenarios are a powerful way in which the scientific community can inform future policies for transformative change. Forthcoming scenario work holds promise for the Nature Futures Framework, which through the concept of relational values, seeks to recognize a multiplicity of value positions on human-environment relations, including those of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs). The objective of this Perspective paper is to propose a novel scenario skeleton titled “Rights for Life”, which holds promise to achieve ambitious biodiversity targets in a socially-equitable ways by focusing on the Nature’s and IPLCs’ rights. We demonstrate, through the case of Arctic reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) herding, that the “Rights for Life” scenario seems to deliver better social equity outcomes than the recently proposed “Half Earth” and “Sharing the Planet” scenarios that have been designed to achieve ambitious conservation and biodiversity targets. The “Rights for Life” scenario is particularly fit for sparsely-populated indigenous homelands and rural regions where local communities depend on culturally important nature-based livelihoods for their well-being. We recommend that future scenarios targeting human-environment relations should not only consider non-western and relational value perspectives, but also recognize the importance of Nature’s and IPLCs’ rights for ensuring transformative change for equity and the environment. Clear recognition of such rights can function as a basis for new regulations, market-based governance instruments, policies, and participatory governance instruments ensuring that violation of Nature’s and IPLCs’ rights by societal developments is recognized, avoided, minimized, or at least compensated for.

‘Nature-positive’ (NP) is emerging as an increasingly used term, intended to encompass goals aimed at reversing the global decline in biodiversity and the incessant destruction of ecosystems. The 1.5-degree goal of the Paris agreement has become a unifying target in the climate discourse, accompanied by the guiding concept of ‘net-zero’ emissions. Anequivalent, widely accepted target for biodiversity has been called for, with NP being named a contender to take this position. However, the concept NP, and net-zero alike, have been subject to criticism. Building on an extensive literature search, this study seeks to identify and analyse the most frequently employed definitions of NP, and who promotes them. It also aims to draw conclusions from a comparative analysis where definitions of NP are mapped onto the IPBES- promoted Nature Futures Framework (NFF). For this purpose, an assessment tool (‘the NFF Mixing Triangle’) is presented. The study finds that NP is frequently used without specifying its meaning, in scientific and non-scientific literature alike. While existing dominant definitions are largely aligned on the conceptual level, there is a lack of consensus on a common definition among stakeholders. The Global Goal for Nature (GG4N) stands out as the most referenced source for defining NP, and is found to have the strongest alignment with NFF. While problematising and discussing criticism, the study suggests a number of focus areas that could serve the future potential of NP. This includes converging NP definitions, balancing definitions across the NFF value dimensions, and considering applicability across multiple scales. An aspiration to consolidate guiding frameworks, use of the Mitigation Hierarchy to strengthen the robustness of NP, and focus on stewardship inside corporations as well as across sectors and value chains, is proposed. Meanwhile, the study suggests that the external drivers of legislation and regulation, and the current growth paradigm and co

Ambitious international targets are being developed to protect and restore biodiversity under the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework and the European Union's Green Deal. Yet, the land system consequences of meeting such targets are unclear, as multiple pathways may be able to deliver on the set targets. This paper introduces a novel scenario approach assessing the plural implementations of these targets. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) developed by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services aims to illustrate the different, positive ways in which society can value nature. It therefore offers a lens through which the spatial implementation of sustainability targets may be envisioned. We used CLUMondo, a spatially explicit model, to simulate plural land system scenarios for Europe for 2050. The model builds on current land system representations of Europe and explores how and where sustainability targets can be implemented under projected population trends and commodity demands. We created three different scenarios in which the sustainability targets are met, each representing an alternative, normative view on nature as represented by the NFF, favoring land systems providing strong climate regulation (Nature for Society), species conservation (Nature for Nature), or agricultural heritage features (Nature as Culture). Our results show that, irrespective of the NFF view, meeting sustainability targets will require European land systems to drastically change, as natural grasslands and forests are forecast to expand while productive areas are projected to undergo a dual intensification and diversification trajectory. Despite each NFF perspective showcasing a similar direction of change, 20% of Europe's land area will differ based on the adopted NFF perspective, with hotspots of disagreement identified in eastern and western Europe. These simulations go beyond existing scenario approache

There is an emerging consensus that the health of the planet depends on the coexistence between rapidly growing cities and the natural world. One strategy for guiding cities towards sustainability is to facilitate a planning process based on positive visions for urban systems among actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the Urban Nature Futures Framework (UNFF), a framework for scenario building for cities that is based on three Nature Futures perspectives: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. Our framework engages stakeholders with envisioning the three Nature Futures perspectives through four components using participatory methods and quantitative models: identification of the socio-ecological feedbacks in cities, assessment of indirect impacts of cities on biodiversity, development of multi-scale indicators, and development of scenarios. Stakeholders in cities may use this framework to explore different options for integrating nature in its various manifestations within urban areas and to assess how different community preferences result in various cityscapes and distribution of associated benefits from nature among urban dwellers across multiple scales.

The unpredictable Anthropocene poses the challenge of imagining a radically different, equitable and sustainable world. Looking 100 years ahead is not easy, and especially as millennials, it appears quite bleak. This paper is the outcome of a visioning exercise carried out in a 2-day workshop, attended by 33 young early career professionals under the auspices of IPBES. The process used Nature Futures Framework in an adapted visioning method from the Seeds of Good Anthropocene project. Four groups envisioned more desirable future worlds; where humanity has organised itself, the economy, politics and technology, to achieve improved nature-human well-being. The four visions had differing conceptualisations of this future. However, there were interesting commonalities in their leverage points for transformative change, including an emphasis on community, fundamentally different economic systems based on sharing and technological solutions to foster sustainability and human-nature connectedness. Debates included questioning the possibility of maintaining local biocultural diversity with increased connectivity globally and the prominence of technology for sustainability outcomes. These visions are the first step towards a wider galvanisation of youth visions for a brighter future, which is often missing in the arena where it can be taken seriously, to trigger more transformative pathways towards meeting global goals

The unpredictable Anthropocene poses the challenge of imagining a radically different, equitable and sustainable world. Looking 100 years ahead is not easy, and especially as millennials, it appears quite bleak. This paper is the outcome of a visioning exercise carried out in a 2-day workshop, attended by 33 young early career professionals under the auspices of IPBES. The process used Nature Futures Framework in an adapted visioning method from the Seeds of Good Anthropocene project. Four groups envisioned more desirable future worlds; where humanity has organised itself, the economy, politics and technology, to achieve improved nature-human well-being. The four visions had differing conceptualisations of this future. However, there were interesting commonalities in their leverage points for transformative change, including an emphasis on community, fundamentally different economic systems based on sharing and technological solutions to foster sustainability and human-nature connectedness. Debates included questioning the possibility of maintaining local biocultural diversity with increased connectivity globally and the prominence of technology for sustainability outcomes. These visions are the first step towards a wider galvanisation of youth visions for a brighter future, which is often missing in the arena where it can be taken seriously, to trigger more transformative pathways towards meeting global goals. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.