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The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or U.S. Government. This report contains project summaries of the research projects in the Department of National Security Affairs. A list of recent publications is also included, which consists of conference presentations and publications, books, contributions to books, published journal papers, and technical reports. Thesis abstracts of students advised by faculty in the Department are also included.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or U.S. Government. This report contains project summaries of the research projects in the Department of National Security Affairs. A list of recent publications is also included, which consists of conference presentations and publications, books, contributions to books, published journal papers, and technical reports. Thesis abstracts of students advised by faculty in the Department are also included.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. This report contains summaries of research projects in the Department of National Security Affairs. A list of recent publications is also included which consists of conference presentations and publications, books, contributions to books, published journal papers, technical reports, and thesis abstracts.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. This report contains summaries of research projects in the Department of National Security Affairs. A list of recent publications is also included which consists of conference presentations and publications, books, contributions to books, published journal papers, technical reports, and thesis abstracts.

Introduction. With Korea, Vietnam and the Gull War as bloody memories of the past, East Asia and the Pacific enters a new era of international relations with the turn to the 21st Century. The entire region, and the rest of the world, breathes more freely because the cold war in its passing has taken with it the imminent danger of a nuclear holocaust. Never has the time been more propitious for a reexamination of conflicts of national security interests in East Asia, with special attention to the role of the United States. It is the purpose of this study to analyze successively the strategic situation in Northeast Asia, China, Southeast Asia and the Southwest Pacific with a view to finding more effective policies and strategies for peace, stability and prosperity.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. This report contains summaries of research projects in the Department of National Security Affairs. A list of recent publications is also included which consists of conference presentations and publications, books, contributions to books, published journal papers, technical reports, and thesis abstracts.

A former NSA student, Sean C. Reynolds, and NSA Professor Mohammed Hafez have just published an empirical study entitled “Social Network Analysis of German Foreign Fighters in Syria and Iraq” in the journal Terrorism and Political Violence.

NSA’s Dr. Cris Matei, along with coauthor Dr. Andrés de Castro García, has recently had an article published in International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence

Dr. Emily Meierding's article “Joint Development in the South China Sea: Exploring the Prospects of Oil and Gas Cooperation between Rivals” was published in the February 2017 issue of Energy Research & Social Science.

After graduating with his Master of Arts with a focus Southeast Asia, former NSA student Lt. Grant Cassingham, an officer in the information warfare community, completed a project for the NPS Littoral Operations Center (LOC) while waiting for his follow-on orders.

Two NSA faculty, Profs. Naazneen Barma and Jessica Piombo, have authored an article with Naomi Levy of Santa Clara University, titled “Disentangling Aid Dynamics in Statebuilding and Peacebuilding...

National Security Affairs (NSA) News Dr. Clay Moltz has a chapter, titled “Asian Space Rivalry and Cooperative Institutions: Mind the Gap,” in the new book, Asian Designs: Governance in the Contemporary World Order, published by published by Cornell University Press.

On September 15, 2016, the Smith Richardson Foundation hosted a roundtable discussion of Dr. Zachary Shore’s book, A Sense of the Enemy: The High-Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind. Leading ...

National Security Affairs (NSA) News Dr. Tom Young has recently published two articles related to challenges of reform in post-Communist European defense institutions. The first, “The Challenge of Reforming European Communist Legacy ‘Logistics,’” was published in August in The Journal of Slavic Military Studies.

The New York City Fire Department (FDNY) is a brand name in public safety. Like many high-reliability organizations, its specialized units carry out advanced and technical work. Expanded mission tasking, compensation, and training have made these assignments a career ladder, but the antiquated selection and assignment policy threaten the integrity of the selection and recruitment process. FDNY may improve its selection for special operations based on what similar organizations do. By reviewing them, specifically the armed services and commercial diving, two high-reliability organizations, this study compares selection methods to identify validated testing, determine criteria, and develop a selection construct that can maintain or improve current selection policies. Findings reveal that cognitive ability testing, physical ability assessments, and in-depth character evaluations used to make personnel selections could enhance FDNY. This thesis recommends that further development of selection models would be beneficial for the organization and defend the FDNY against claims of bias, favoritism, and discrimination. Lack of validation has already cost New York City and the FDNY legal fines. Validation studies identify areas of selection that need improvement so the FDNY could reinforce traditional selection criteria and establish new and validated ways of identifying and cultivating talent with the fire service. Civilian, FDNY Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This comparative case-study analysis of reform in democratization of civil-military relations (CMR) in post conflict Nepal after 2006 and El Salvador after 1992 focuses on the transitional democratic phase in which progress in democratization of CMR is instrumental in achieving the overall democratic transition.The reform is assessed by the application of a six-dimensional framework for reform in democratization of CMR proposed by Pion-Berlin and Martinez, which consists of power, legal framework, institutions, knowledge, convergence, and performance/effectiveness as six vital dimensions that need to be examined under various components and sub-components. The analysis suggests that the progress achieved for all dimensions is mixed, ranging from minimal to substantial. Both the countries have achieved moderate reforms in most of the examined components under all dimensions, however. Based on the analysis, this thesis concludes that each of the countries is in the transitioning democratic phase. Progress is gradual, yet on the right path toward eventual consolidation of democracy by first reforming the democratization of the CMR. Overall, the study of Nepal showcases a better outcome so far than El Salvador. LTC, Nepal Army Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Since the latter half of the twentieth century, China’s conduct in territorial disputes within the nine-dash line (9DL) has received international criticism. After the landmark arbitral ruling in 2016 denounced China’s historical claims to maritime rights within the 9DL and ruled China’s actions in Philippine waters as unlawful, it became evidently clear to the international community that China had been overstepping the bounds of the United Nations Conventions on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). Prior incidents with Japan and Vietnam had already portrayed China as provocative. If left unchecked, continued Chinese provocation in the South China Sea could threaten countries’ sovereign maritime rights in the region. This possibility poses an important question: Why have countries in Southeast Asia not more publicly and prominently cooperated with one another and the United States to balance against China’s claims in the South China Sea? This thesis argues that claimant countries have not taken a collaborative approach to challenging China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea due to three factors: heightened tensions in the South China Sea as a result of the U.S.-China rivalry, China’s economic influence on claimant countries’ decision-making, and the presence of a collective action dilemma among ASEAN to challenge China. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In 2001, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) was created to secure all modes of transportation from external threats such as terrorists and other actors with malicious intent. Currently, the most dangerous threat to aviation security is an insider threat. What TSA can do better to address insider threats is the primary focus of this thesis. This thesis utilizes a comparative analysis to examine the insider threat programs at the Department of Defense and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the United States and the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure in the United Kingdom to explore insider threat mitigation options for TSA. This thesis finds that TSA should establish a more thorough vetting of applicants and an ongoing review of current aviation employees. Accomplishing this recommendation will require multiple strategies, including establishing and strengthening partnerships to leverage expertise and maximize resources. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Secret Service conducts Protective Intelligence (PI) investigations as part of its integrated mission of investigating financial crimes and protecting certain elected federal government officials. An integral part of the PI investigation is the PI interview. Although Special Agents and Uniformed Division Officers receive PI interview training, they still struggle with four key components of the interview: rapport and relationship building, elicitation, deception detection, and decision-making. As a result, they may not conduct thorough PI interviews, thus negatively impacting the PI investigation. Faulty PI investigations may result in unwanted outcomes for Secret Service protective interests. These outcomes may include death or injury to protectees, Secret Service employees, or the public. A potential solution is the mPEAK mindfulness program that the Secret Service already uses to improve employee wellness. This thesis reviews literature on mindfulness training and its utility in performance enhancement to determine to what extent the Secret Service should leverage mPEAK to improve PI interviewing and to offer recommendations for the inclusion of mPEAK in the current PI training curriculum. It finds that elements of mindfulness—presence, nonjudgment, enhanced listening skills, and increased attention—can improve investigators’ PI interview skills. Finally, this thesis gives recommendations for a working group to adapt mPEAK for improved PI interviewing. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Starting in 2013, the number of people requesting asylum via the credible fear program at the border between the United States and Mexico began to rapidly increase. Congress held a series of hearings during which politicians and other witnesses claimed that the surge was due to asylum seekers committing fraud en masse. This thesis reviews the literature and available data regarding asylum fraud to determine whether the claims of fraud in the credible fear program hold merit. This thesis also employs bivariate correlations and regression analyses to estimate the relationships between the number of credible fear receipts from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico and a selection of independent variables that measure conditions in those countries, U.S. and Mexican policy decisions, and other migration and benefit types. The review and statistical analyses suggest that the generalized claim of fraud does not satisfactorily explain the surge in credible fear receipts over the previous 10 years. Instead, the results suggest that the surge consisted of people genuinely seeking protection and that each country in this study has a unique set of variables that best explain credible fear receipts from that country alone. This thesis recommends that the U.S. government rely on statistical modeling to prepare for the fluctuations in the number of asylum seekers and to identify and help resolve the underlying factors that cause increases in people fleeing their countries. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States Asylum Program of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) under the Department of Homeland Security offers protection to some of the world’s most vulnerable populations. However, the program faces exploitation due to fraud. The government has yet to meaningfully incorporate federal law enforcement into asylum fraud deterrence because the government has not addressed disincentives for prosecutions and investigations. This thesis seeks to address how federal law enforcement can be better incentivized to prosecute asylum fraud. A case comparison method of international and domestic benefit-fraud prosecution initiatives against current asylum fraud-deterrence practices is utilized to understand how federal law enforcement can be better incorporated into asylum fraud-deterrence plans. The case comparison reveals several structural and resource issues currently disincentivizing asylum fraud prosecutions. This thesis recommends the establishment of a criminal immigration fraud section within the Department of Justice as well as the reprioritization of fraud in immigration law enforcement priorities to address those concerns. This research helps to address and highlight the lack of literature on asylum fraud and contributes to the consideration of a more comprehensive strategic asylum fraud deterrence plan. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

State and non-state actors like Russia and the Alt-Right use disinformation campaigns to target social and political fractures and polarize society on sensitive issues. U.S. agencies have continued to utilize variations of the same counter disinformation measures for the last 50 years. These measures have failed to keep pace with innovations by disinformation actors due to changes in the information environment and the speed of information diffusion. This thesis examines how framing theory can assist U.S. counter disinformation efforts. Framing theory proposes that the context, or frame, in which information is presented influences how individuals process the received information. In the context of this thesis, development of a strong frame consists of three elements: volume, credibility, and resonance. These elements are applied to three disinformation campaigns—Operation Denver, a Soviet campaign attributing HIV to the U.S.; #Pizzagate, a 2016 election interference campaign; and Plandemic, a non-state actor campaign targeting U.S. COVID-19 policy makers—and the countermeasures employed by U.S. agencies to each. This thesis contrasts disinformation campaigns and countermeasures using framing to demonstrate elements employed by disinformation actors and U.S. agencies to determine key differences that contribute to the successes and failures of disinformation countermeasures. This thesis proposes incorporating framing analysis into countermeasure planning and execution. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In the past few years, China and Russia have developed offensive hypersonic missile capabilities that the United States currently can neither match nor successfully defend against. Such weapons are nuclear capable, have an unpredictable flight path, and significantly reduce reaction times for decision makers. This thesis analyzes the impact hypersonic missiles have on strategy and military combat systems to determine how the United States can best respond to China and Russia acquiring hypersonic weapons. It explores three main options: arms control negotiations, advancing the U.S. missile defense system, or the United States acquiring its own hypersonic weapons. The pros and cons of each option are weighed to determine the quickest, most affordable, and most effective approach to the hypersonic arms race.This thesis concludes that the United States should control only what it is capable of controlling: practicing transparency and confidence-building measures to set the international standard for conduct with hypersonic weapons, continuing to develop its missile defense system to keep pace with emerging threats, and acquiring hypersonic missiles to allow it the ability to operate forward-deployed forces without impediment is the best response to China and Russia. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The demographic makeup of fire departments, including firefighters and paramedics, often does not reflect communities. This thesis poses the following research question: What factors support and inhibit the recruitment and retention of African American firefighters and paramedics in the United States? The research relied on documented open-source information and data from fire and emergency medical service (EMS) departments in the United States. In examining issues affecting the recruitment and retention of African Americans in the profession, this study considers the history of the fire service and EMS, along with other internal and external factors that could support or inhibit the recruitment and retention of African Americans. The research offers several recommendations to remedy this issue, including mandating Courageous Conversations workshops, creating a diverse full-time recruiting team, developing pipeline partnerships, and changing hiring and training processes. Civilian, Memphis Fire Department Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The U.S. Border Patrol has become the face of immigration in the United States because of the wave of migrants at the southern border who continue to seek the American dream by extreme means. While the literature is replete with accounts of immigrants and their treacherous journeys, this thesis tells a different, yet equally relevant, story—that of the Border Patrol agent whose professional and personal life is challenged every day by such stressors as the threat of violence and danger, political pressures, and moral injury. This thesis seeks to identify alternative programs for building mental-health resilience as suicides among Border Patrol agents remain constant. To this end, this thesis explores mental health challenges and their causes and the barriers to seeking treatment that are unique to law enforcement and the Border Patrol. As the migrant crisis continues, it is essential that Border Patrol agents be provided with the necessary tools to maintain their resilience while protecting America. This thesis conducts a comparative case study to analyze two programs that the U.S. military utilizes (equine assistance therapy and the battle buddy system). This thesis finds that both programs benefit overall mental wellness and thus recommends that the U.S. Border Patrol consider implementing the two programs into its current resiliency plan. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Federal regulations aim to ensure grid reliability and harden it against outages; however, widespread outages continue. This thesis examines the spectrum of regulations to evaluate them. It outlines their structure, the regulations’ intent, and weighs them against evolving cyber and physical threats and natural disaster risks. Currently, the regulatory structure is incapable of providing uniform security. Federal standards protect only the transmission portion of the grid, leaving the distribution section vulnerable to attack due to varying regulations from state to state, or county to county. The regulations cannot adapt quickly enough to meet dynamic threats, rendering them less effective. Cyber threats can be so agile that protectors are unaware of vulnerabilities, and patching requirements are too lengthy, which increases the risk exposure. No current weather mitigation or standard is capable of protecting the grid despite regular natural disasters that cause power shutdowns. The thesis concludes that bridging these gaps requires not increasing protection standards, but redundancy. Redundancy, mirrored after the UK's infrastructure policy, is more likely to reduce failure risk through layered components and systems. Microgrids are proven effective in disasters to successfully deliver such redundancy and should be implemented across all critical infrastructure sectors. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Paying ransoms to recover hostages endangers a larger population because it funds terrorist organizations’ operations. To achieve counterterrorism strategy objectives, it is crucial that states consistently adhere to the international ban on ransom payments. Analyzing the factors that influence democracies' decisions to pay or not pay ransoms provides a better understanding of the political peculiarities that shape a state's ransom payment policy over time and influence its decision-making during a hostage-taking crisis. This thesis examined twenty abduction cases involving nationals of four Western democracies (France, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom) that occurred between 2001 and 2015. This thesis’ findings demonstrate that public opinion and media perception of ransom payments are the most compelling factors influencing decision-makers. Also, policy legacies of paying or rejecting ransoms affected the political leaders of these four Western democracies. In addition to better preventing kidnappings, states should enact ransom payment bans through domestic laws and policy directives, which would likely constrain decision-making and alleviate public pressure. Moreover, educating the public and media about the greater risk created by ransom payments and the publicity given to kidnappings will help shape public opinion in favor of a ransom payment ban. Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Colonel, Algerian Air Force Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Factions within Antifa were responsible for criminal activity during the social injustice protests of 2020 in the United States, leading to some arrests. Despite the economic destruction caused nationally during the protests and Antifa’s continual involvement in criminal acts, not much has been done to hold the group accountable. The Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act offers one potential option to address Antifa. This thesis explores how the RICO statute has been applied to criminal enterprises similar to Antifa and how it might be applied to prosecute Antifa. This thesis uses a combination of two qualitative research methods: legal analysis and case studies. The legal analysis focuses on the RICO Act’s application to non-economic enterprises and the related First Amendment issues involved when the act is applied to protest groups. The case studies focus on the successful application of the RICO Act to other types of criminal enterprises such as criminal street gangs, white supremacist groups, and other non-traditional criminal enterprises. This thesis finds that the RICO Act’s use for non-traditional criminal enterprises has withstood legal challenges, making it a viable option for combating Antifa. Civilian, Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Arms acquisitions are an important instrument used to carry out a country’s national defense and foreign policy strategies. For nations with rich histories of arms acquisitions, investigating the motives that encourage purchasing arms offers a look into the state’s security perspectives. Within the Indo-Pacific, several countries that are closely aligned with the United States - namely Japan and Taiwan - have engaged in large volume arms sales with the U.S. in the 21st century. This thesis investigates the factors that have encouraged Japan and Taiwan to purchase American arms in an effort to determine the motives that sustain long-term arms commitments. It examines various domestic and international drivers that have both encouraged and challenged purchases of U.S. made defensive technologies. This thesis argues that both Japan and Taiwan are influenced to pursue arms acquisitions by their long-standing partnerships with the United States, as well as geopolitical security concerns especially the threat of the PRC. However, unique domestic considerations such as Japan’s antimilitarism ideology and Taiwan’s distinctive Cross-Strait relations have played significant roles in hampering arms acquisitions. When combined, these factors offer insights into the complexities of arms acquisitions and suggest that external factors have the greater influence on arms acquisitions versus internal factors. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Prisons and jails house inmates susceptible to radicalization and recruitment by extremist groups, which necessitates an intelligence collection program to detect and disrupt this activity. Unfortunately, barriers exist within the State of Texas that hinder effective correctional intelligence sharing. This thesis asks, What can be done to improve the level of intelligence sharing in regard to extremism in correctional environments in the State of Texas? What benefits toward this effort could be derived from a centrally administered and coordinated intelligence framework? By examining existing programs, this thesis identifies barriers, including limited access to intelligence due to reliance on federal agencies, which require lengthy background checks and clearances; the lack of a robust network between facilities and law enforcement, which prevents the comparison of crucial data; and minimal inclusion of corrections within existing legal frameworks related to these threats. Using a case study analysis, this thesis examines three frameworks as possible models to improve information sharing. It argues that the State of Texas should use executive orders to create a centralized entity to coordinate intelligence to more effectively address threats within corrections. Civilian, Texas Department of Criminal Justice - Office of the Inspector General Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Over a century of drug policy and law has failed to stop the flow of illegal drugs into the U.S. Drug policy and law have focused on reducing the supply of illicit drugs but have failed to consider factors that influence the demand for those drugs. The U.S. now faces an unprecedented crisis of opioid use, abuse, overdose, and death largely due to these failures.A gap analysis was conducted to identify shortcomings in existing policy. Gap analysis is used to determine whether a policy as written reaches desired goals and outcomes through its implementation. Biopsychosocial theory (BPS) was used to frame the recommendations for policy change. The BPS framework of human behavior and well-being encompasses all known influences on a person when attempting to diagnose or treat an illness, permitting a thorough examination of a policy’s ability to meet the needs of a population. The gap analysis shows the current policy does not produce desired outcomes in terms of drug abuse prevention, and women are affected more negatively than men. Women are at greater risk of losing their children, losing their jobs, being unable to find educational resources, and becoming homeless if they become addicted to opioids. The BPS suggests a shift in policy and law from supply reduction to demand reduction, which is critical to the future of women most at risk for drug abuse, overdose, and death. Civilian, Department of Social Services, State of California Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Over the last several years, law enforcement’s image in the United States has been tarnished by the unlawful acts of a number of bad actors. These actions have negatively influenced the perception of law enforcement, particularly within some minority communities located in metropolitan cities nationwide. To strengthen its public profile, law enforcement is exploring methods to improve its image. This thesis investigates how law enforcement can develop positive social media exposure to improve police–community relations in the current social climate. Using qualitative and quantitative research, this thesis examined the different methods the Metropolitan Police Department of Washington, DC, the Boston Police Department, and the Portland Police Bureau used to develop positive social media exposure on Twitter directly before and after the murder of George Floyd on May 25, 2020. To assess the departments’ methods, this research analyzed their respective tweets by their frequency, method of posting, and the number of reactions they generated within this timeframe. As a result, this thesis finds that nationwide protests created significant exposure opportunities for law enforcement. This thesis concludes that to improve its image, law enforcement should continuously promote positive messaging on Twitter by highlighting positive work, conveying solidarity with the community, and exhibiting a willingness to work with the public. Civilian, State Govt Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis is an observational study that investigates the systemic and domestic obstacles to proposed maritime confidence-building measures (MCBMs) between India and Pakistan. The impediments identified apply to a lack of general cooperation between the South Asian states; however, this thesis leverages prior academic work, which posits that the maritime issues are not only resolvable but may facilitate further momentum to address more contentious disputes. Following the introduction chapter, this study is partitioned into four sections to answer the question: why did the proposed MCBMs not hold between India and Pakistan? First, a thorough overview of the two relevant maritime issues, namely the Sir Creek dispute and the maritime boundary demarcation, are examined in tandem with MCBM progression and the implications left unresolved. Second, the systemic obstacle is argued by investigating 20th-century historical legacies and how they precipitated the social construction and institutionalization of enmity. Third, the domestic obstacle is posited by observing each state’s 21st-century media environments and how the fourth estate may contribute to hostility. Lastly, the conclusion argues for the urgent need for greater MCBMs, given the current maritime volatility in South Asia, and recommends proposals for the United States, India, and Pakistan. Lieutenant, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Police officers historically suffer from higher rates of suicide, alcohol and substance abuse, relationship troubles, and other physical and mental health issues than the general population. Over the past several decades, law enforcement agencies have turned to employee assistance programs (EAPs) and wellness programs to help their members manage and mitigate the negative effects of stress commonly associated with the profession. But how well do EAPs and wellness programs work for the law enforcement community? To answer this question, this thesis utilized a structured, focused comparative multi-case study. Five police departments from across the United States were examined to determine program relevancy, adequacy of implementation, barriers and enablers, and efficacy. This study found that none of the five departments collects and analyzes data on how many of its members use the services or for what reasons they are seeking services. Without the collection and analysis of data consequently, the departments cannot reliably demonstrate that their EAP and wellness programs benefit department members. It is recommended law enforcement EAP and wellness programs develop and implement a standard method of collecting, analyzing, and sharing data. It is possible to collect data without compromising confidentiality and only once these data are available can EAPs ensure that they are best serving members of the law enforcement community. Civilian, Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Dept. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Russia-Ukraine war, which began February 24, 2022, is ongoing, with a cost of many thousands of lives, catastrophic property destruction, and displacement of millions. As the international community grapples with nuclear threats and a humanitarian disaster resulting from the war, many small states in the region are struggling to maintain economic stability and military security. Perhaps no small state is more immediately affected than geographically unique Mongolia, situated between world powers Russia and China. This thesis examines how Russia’s war in Ukraine is impacting Mongolia in the economic and military domains. The thesis finds that because Mongolia’s 2011 foreign policy concept and 2015 military strategy remain in place, there is little chance of any change in current military strategy. The economic effects, however, have been pronounced: fuel prices have risen by 68 percent and consumer goods by 15.7 percent. The thesis concludes that Mongolia’s overreliance on Russia leaves it vulnerable to severe economic impacts over which it has little control. The thesis recommends that Mongolia pursue economic self-sufficiency in critical areas such as electrical power and that it assess ways to stabilize its economy in times of regional or international conflict. The thesis also recommends that Mongolia’s military innovate in response to the war and continue to develop its strength. Major, Mongolian Armed Forces Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the training provided by the United States Secret Service’s Protective Intelligence Division (PID) to its recruits and special agents (SAs) to effectively conduct interviews with mentally ill individuals during protective intelligence (PI) investigations. These interviews are vital because they provide SAs with information to assess the risk of a subject’s carrying out an attack against a Secret Service protectee. Responding to the 1960s’ deinstitutionalization movement, which saw a rise in law enforcement interactions with individuals with mental illness, many agencies developed advanced mental illness training programs. The PID provides its recruits and SAs with 28 hours of mental illness and interview training, which may need to be revised given the importance of PI investigations involving mentally ill individuals. After analyzing the current PI training program, this thesis provides research and recommendations for effective mental illness training programs used by other law enforcement agencies, including the Crisis Intervention Team (CIT), DEFUSE, CIT Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes, and Mental Health First Aid. The study recommends incorporating specific elements from these training programs into the Secret Service’s PI training program to provide more comprehensive risk assessments of potential threats and unwanted outcomes against protectees when dealing with individuals with mental illness. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Turkey increasingly sees itself as mid-tier power capable of projecting influence from beyond its near periphery. This research examines the motivations for Turkey’s overtures to sub-Saharan Africa within the broader context of its evolving foreign policy. It also explains how Turkey fulfills a growing role within the sub-African market with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, by examining case studies of Ethiopia and Nigeria, among others. Moreover, it explores the implications—both domestic and within sub-Saharan Africa—that arise from Turkey’s use of drones as a tool of its foreign policy. Many contemporary authors look at the role of Turkey’s drone sales in the context of the last few years when Turkey initially exported drones. This thesis argues that Turkey’s drone outreach continues the evolution of Turkey's foreign policy from at least the early 2010s, and the growing sub-Saharan African market provides Turkey with new opportunities to project influence while serving domestic economic and political interests. Finally, Turkey’s rapid increase in drone sales also highlights how the security landscape of sub-Saharan Africa continues to shift. This change and Turkey’s increased involvement in the region contribute to a potentially significant, though still nascent, impact on the interests and policy of the United States across the region. Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In recent years, the United States has exhibited sustained socio-political violence and extremism. This thesis investigates whether the United States is experiencing a pre-insurgency state in the insurgency life cycle. A comparative analysis, utilizing domestic insurgency markers provided by the Central Intelligence Agency’s Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency, examines historical domestic insurgencies in Colombia, Northern Ireland, and North Carolina against the current socio-political environment in the United States. This analysis suggests that the United States is exhibiting characteristics of an open domestic insurgency, as demonstrated in the case studies. This thesis recommends enacting necessary political reforms and instating a national year of service, administered by the U.S. military and modeled after the Israeli Defense Forces. Civilian, Spartanburg County Emergency Services Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Urban municipalities feature pedestrian-rich environments with limited mitigation measures to prevent vehicle-caused pedestrian fatalities. Limited pedestrian protections represent an attractive target for nefarious actors to commit vehicle ramming attacks (VRA). There are defensive-minded methodologies that afford greater mitigation against deadly vehicle-versus-pedestrian collisions and VRAs in urban pedestrian-rich environments. This thesis examines the vulnerability of pedestrian-rich environments to vehicle-caused pedestrian fatalities and provide recommendations for stakeholders to better secure the environments. It also examines both the target hardening and protective security methodologies using a theoretical analysis model. By analyzing these defensive-minded methodologies, this thesis explores a homogenous framework for securing urban pedestrian-rich environments: the target hardening/protective security spectrum (THPSS). This thesis concludes with recommendations for urban municipalities to implement to better protect their respective pedestrian-rich environments from deadly vehicle-versus-pedestrian collisions and VRAs. This thesis provides recommendations to better secure outdoor dining establishments, street fairs, road races, and urban public parks from vehicle-caused fatalities. Civilian, New York City Police Department Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Law enforcement agencies lack clear guidance on best practices for managing agency-wide risk. Conventional risk management focuses on reducing the risk of legal liability for police misconduct. This legal liability paradigm, which targets the narrow range of risks that lead to municipal financial liability, persists despite significant limitations. This thesis uses the case study method to examine the risk management practices of the Seattle Police Department (SPD) and the Oakland Police Department (OPD), two agencies whose approach to managing risk, having been shaped by federal court oversight and community activism, embraces a more capacious understanding of the harms caused by police activities. This thesis analyzes two established risk management strategies, early intervention systems and incident review boards, and two promising strategies, Compstat-style risk management meetings and sentinel event reviews. The study finds that early intervention systems may gain utility from advances in machine learning, that incident review boards play an essential role in ensuring an agency’s continual risk-oriented self-scrutiny, and that sentinel event reviews can align agency practices with community values. Finally, the thesis finds that OPD’s risk management meetings, which it uses to provide strategic oversight of agency-wide risk, are effective, and recommends agencies consider implementing a similarly iterative and holistic process. Civilian, Oakland Police Department Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The concept of regulating the physical security of commercial spaceports has received little attention. Currently, no federal agency is responsible for developing physical security standards or enforcing regulatory compliance within the industry. This thesis examines the need to create and apply ground-based physical security standards to commercial space facilities within the United States. This thesis explores three policy options as potential paths forward if commercial space travel is designated as critical infrastructure and assesses their effectiveness, cost, political challenges, and viability. The analysis determines that taking proactive measures now will mitigate the potential costs and impacts of an attack and would save substantial amounts of money, keep a burgeoning market on track, and could save lives. Ultimately, this thesis concludes that implementing a regulatory approach like the one employed by the Transportation Security Administration’s surface transportation program would be effective if it prevents the explosion of one Falcon 9 rocket, or similar, every approximately 188 years. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis sought to determine the factors that have traditionally challenged effective U.S. human rights policies with China, examining U.S. preferences, policies, developments, and conditions from 1993 through 2021. This thesis investigated the efficacy of U.S. human rights policies with China according to policy makers’ prioritization of those policies, in terms of time, effort, and competing or conflicting impacts to other national interests. U.S. policy makers from the Clinton through the Obama administrations demonstrated a consistent preference to prioritize economic relations and security cooperation with China under an overarching engagement strategy at the expense of effective human rights efforts. Under Trump, however, conditions and events resulted in a major shift from the engagement policy toward a competition strategy. The major contributors to the strategy shift were (1) China’s human rights issues in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, (2) U.S. policy makers’ acknowledgement that China was growing powerful at the expense of the U.S. and that its development had not led to liberalization, and (3) Trump’s America First foreign policy tendencies, which rejected overreliance on China to achieve his national goals. U.S. human rights policies became more effective as policy makers became increasingly willing to use confrontational measures against China’s human rights issues to include imposing sanctions and passing punitive and prevention-related legislation. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Los Angeles Area Urban Area Security Initiative (LAA UASI) is a federal grant program that takes a regional approach to grant projects that improve safety and security in Los Angeles. The research conducted for this thesis aimed to contribute to ongoing efforts to enhance the LAA UASI’s safety, provide a framework for collaborative networks, and create a positive environment with real-time information for managing large-scale incidents, including natural and human-made disasters. The research found that the LAA UASI has significantly enhanced the Los Angeles community’s preparedness and response capabilities and identified some areas for improvement. After analyzing best practices from many sectors, including private industry, public safety, the energy sector, not-for-profit governance, and corporate business, this thesis offers several recommendations for future implementation of the program to enhance overall collaboration and cooperation—the bridge to building strong networks of partners and keeping American cities safe. Overall, this thesis lends valuable insights and recommendations for decision-makers working to improve the safety and security of the Los Angeles community. Civilian, Los Angeles City Fire Department Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.