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Introduction A clinical prediction tool to estimate life expectancy in community-dwelling individuals living with dementia could inform healthcare decision-making and prompt future planning. An existing Ontario-based tool for community-dwelling elderly individuals does not perform well in people living with dementia specifically. This study seeks to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool to estimate survival in community-dwelling individuals living with dementia receiving home care in Ontario, Canada.Methods and analysis This will be a population-level retrospective cohort study that will use data in linked healthcare administrative databases at ICES. Specifically, data that are routinely collected from regularly administered assessments for home care will be used. Community-dwelling individuals living with dementia receiving home care at any point between April 2010 and March 2020 will be included (N≈200 000). The model will be developed in the derivation cohort (N≈140 000), which includes individuals with a randomly selected home care assessment between 2010 and 2017. The outcome variable will be survival time from index assessment. The selection of predictor variables will be fully prespecified and literature/expert-informed. The model will be estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. The model’s performance will be assessed in a temporally distinct validation cohort (N≈60 000), which includes individuals with an assessment between 2018 and 2020. Overall performance will be assessed using Nagelkerke’s R2, discrimination using the concordance statistic and calibration using the calibration curve. Overfitting will be assessed visually and statistically. Model performance will be assessed in the validation cohort and in prespecified subgroups.Ethics and dissemination The study received research ethics board approval from the Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre (SUN-6138). Abstracts of the project will be submitted to academic conferences, and a manuscript thereof will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. The model will be disseminated on a publicly accessible website (www.projectbiglife.com).Trial registration number NCT06266325 (clinicaltrials.gov).

The use of virtual care for people at the end-of-life significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, but its association with acute healthcare use and location of death is unknown. The objective of this study was to measure the association between the use of virtual end-of-life care with acute healthcare use and an out-of-hospital death before vs. after the introduction of specialized fee codes that enabled broader delivery of virtual care during the COVID-19 pandemic. This was a population-based cohort study of 323,995 adults in their last 90 days of life between January 25, 2018 and December 31, 2021 using health administrative data in Ontario, Canada. Primary outcomes were acute healthcare use (emergency department, hospitalization) and location of death (in or out-of-hospital). Prior to March 14, 2020, 13,974 (8%) people received at least 1 virtual end-of-life care visit, which was associated with a 16% higher rate of emergency department use (adjusted Rate Ratio [aRR] 1.16, 95%CI 1.12 to 1.20), a 17% higher rate of hospitalization (aRR 1.17, 95%CI 1.15 to 1.20), and a 34% higher risk of an out-of-hospital death (aRR 1.34, 95%CI 1.31 to 1.37) compared to people who did not receive virtual end-of-life care. After March 14, 2020, 104,165 (71%) people received at least 1 virtual end-of-life care visit, which was associated with a 58% higher rate of an emergency department visit (aRR 1.58, 95%CI 1.54 to 1.62), a 45% higher rate of hospitalization (aRR 1.45, 95%CI 1.42 to 1.47), and a 65% higher risk of an out-of-hospital death (aRR 1.65, 95%CI 1.61 to 1.69) compared to people who did not receive virtual end-of-life care. The use of virtual end-of-life care was associated with higher acute healthcare use in the last 90 days of life and a higher likelihood of dying out-of-hospital, and these rates increased during the pandemic.

ObjectiveTo measure the association between types of serious illness and the use of different physician-delivered care models near the EOL during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design, setting and participantsPopulation-based cohort study using health administrative datasets in Ontario, Canada, for adults aged ≥18 years in their last 90 days of life who died of cancer or terminal noncancer illness and received physician-delivered care models near the end-of-life between March 14, 2020 and January 24, 2022.ExposureThe type of serious illness (cancer or terminal noncancer illness).Main outcomePhysician-delivered care models for adults in the last 90 days of life (exclusively virtual, exclusively home-based in-person, or mixed).ResultsThe study included 75,930 adults (median age 78 years, 49% female, cancer n = 58,894 [78%], noncancer illness n = 17,036 [22%]). A higher proportion of people with cancer (39.3%) received mixed model of care compared to those with noncancer illnesses (chronic organ failure 24.4%, dementia 37.9%, multimorbidity 28%). Compared to people with cancer, people with chronic organ failure (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.61, 95% CI: 1.54 to 1.68) and those with multimorbidity ([aOR], 1.49, 95% CI: 1.39 to 1.59) had a higher odds of receiving virtual care than a mixed model of care. People with dementia had a higher odds of home-based in-person care than a mixed model of care ([aOR], 1.47, 95% CI 1.27, 1.71) and virtual care ([aOR], 1.40, 95% CI 1.20-1.62) compared to people with cancer.ConclusionA person's type of serious illness was associated with different care models near the end-of-life. This study demonstrates persistent disease-specific differences in care delivery or possibly the tailoring of models of care in the last 90 days of life based on a person's specific care needs.

Background Palliative care is associated with improved symptom control and quality of life in people with heart failure. There is conflicting evidence as to whether it is associated with a greater likelihood of death at home in this population. The objective of this study was to describe the delivery of newly initiated palliative care services in adults who die with heart failure and measure the association between receipt of palliative care and death at home compared with those who did not receive palliative care. Methods and Results We performed a population‐based cohort study using linked health administrative data in Ontario, Canada of 74 986 community‐dwelling adults with heart failure who died between 2010 and 2015. Seventy‐five percent of community‐dwelling adults with heart failure died in a hospital. Patients who received any palliative care were twice as likely to die at home compared with those who did not receive it (adjusted odds ratio 2.12 [95% CI, 2.03–2.20]; P